In the first of three summer specials, Joe is joined by Sarah Harris to look back at the year that was. With conflict raging across the globe, Joe and Sarah break down what's been happening, and what this could mean for 2025.
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This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigall people of the Eura Nation.
Hello, and welcome to a special summer edition of the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. I'm Joe Hildrand. But it's not just Joe Hildebrand with you over the next few weeks as we do a special retrospective of all the biggest stories of the year. And this is a job too big for one man to handle, and so I've brought along someone very special. She's my sister from another mister, my wife from another life, my lady who's a little bit shady, Sarah Harris, and I.
Was going cheap, can I just say?
And somehow, somehow, somehow, I was invited onto your podcast, which has become three separate episodes over summer.
But I'm excited.
Yeah.
I adore you, Joe too. I like being back in the broadcasting space with you.
I've engineered this entire cast in kaper just so the two of us can get back together.
Oh is this our audition tape?
This is no, no, this is this is happening. This is real. Oh, this is going to air right now. People are listening to this, dozens of them, dozens.
Scores tens of people out.
Tens of people. Now, for those of you still listening, first, the first thing I want to talk about is World War III. I thought we'd just get the you know, get the little stuff out of the way before we get into the meatia stuff. But one of the things I happen to notice about twenty twenty four is that there are at least three points at which the world could instantly come to an end. So we've got the war in the Middle East, and you know, armageddon, that's where it's meant to happen. You've got the war between Russia and Ukraine. And I know you're a big Putin guy. I know you love that guy's swagger.
Because I named my Russian hair piece Putin because I like to be Putin on my hair piece.
It does not mean I am a Putin fan.
Okay, my mistake. Sorry, I must have misread the email. And of course, the election of Donald Trump, the greatest political comeback in history. What does this mean for global stability? What does this mean for Jana? And so there's all these points where the world could descend or ascend into a global conflagration, and I thought we could just sort of figure that all out. Stop that from happening. Maybe send Vlad your mate a little Christmas card and say, hey, take a breath, take a seat.
Well, it's the festive season, so let's start at Defcon five. I'm really worried about this whole situation. Everything at the moment feels really ephemeral, Like I wondered if this is how actually do you remember about two years ago of my depression. I said to you, Joe, I'm going to write a memoir, and your reaction was, how does it end? I don't know how this is going to end. I genuinely don't know. I mean, the Middle East scenario that just just keeps going from.
Bad to worse.
I don't know whether Assad's collapse in Syria is going to have even.
Wors four possible flashballs right.
Right, I mean, you know who knows. I So you like to say, you like to say that we're going to Hell in a hand bask. Yes, well, I've brought things hell.
We're going to Hell in a hand basket, not Hell in a tote bag.
No, well, I brought some moonwater along because I think we're going to need it this year. And I feel like the only way we can actually digest and predict what the.
Hell is going to go on.
The magic apl the magic Aateball. Remember we had that idea for doing a podcast, you and me where it would just be you reading tarot cards.
Yes, I left them in Melbourne.
That is not this podcast, okay, but listen, it's a different one.
The thing that worries me, Okay.
For example, I mean I actually remember being in Turkey, probably about twenty eleven, when Pregan Yard's regime had kicked up, kicked off, and we were speaking to a bunch of Syrians who'd fled over some drinks, and it kind of blows my mind that it was thirteen years and all of a sudden this regime has collapsed.
Remember when he first got in how.
It was said to be this, It was supposed to be hopeful for the West.
He was having dinner dinner with Gradelina.
It was going to be a cultural centers, tolerant towards Christians. The dork yophthalmologist Becas was the Paris of the East.
That's it, that's it, Den Brandelina.
I mean his wife was doing these softball puff pieces in Vogue.
I think they were calling her the rows of the desert. Look how badly that turned out.
Well, this is the thing. So the problem with the Middle East generally, as everybody knows, is that all these nation states are kind of fabricated there. I'm not blaming everything on colonialism. It's all the British and French fault. Bl blah blah blah. I mean it's a bit their fault. But also the Ottoman Empire joined World War One on the side of the Kaiser. So they joined the bad guys. They had to pick a side. Okay, fine, fair enough, whatever, but they joined the Germans. They lost. They backed the wrong horse. Sorry, guys, bad Like, we get to carve up your empire now. And so that is what's happened. The result of that has been that you need a strong man, and not a democratic strong man, to actually hold power. You need to be able, this is the theory. Anyway, you need to be able to basically crack a few heads together, make sure that under these sort of warring tribes, get out a line. And that's the only way you can prevent basically anarchy. And Saddam Hussein as an obvious example, and Bashir al Asad is another obvious example. And the problem with these guys is they're nasty people. They're horrible, horrible, horrible people, and they do horrible things to their populations. But once they go, do you just get someone even worse?
That's right, I mean it.
When the Taliban was elected back in the nineties, I mean they were celebrated.
They won it fair and square.
But they were celebrated because they cut the top of the warlords.
That's right. Well, the Taliban back. The Taliban were backed by the US against the Russians, the Talibans. But like if you watch Rambo three, right, the people he's working with that slice alone in the great American heroes working with in Rambo three are basically the Taliban, and he uses them to get rid of the Russians, and then of course they get replaced with something else. And then you get, well, the Dalabad replaced by the sort of US coalition forces and then suddenly they just came back. But that's another story. But again, if you look at Iraq, what happened as soon as Saddam Husseaying gets toppled vacuum power vacuum and you have the site power base. I think it was that replaces the Bathurst and the Bathists of these weird kind of socialist nationalist, kind of crazy people, these sort of Arab nationalists, right, and so you've got them and they're sort of a political movement with different strands. So that was Saddam. That was also basically assad in Syria as well. But then Saddam he's a horrible man, a dictator, kills people, tortures people. You get rid of him and suddenly isis Suddenly because of course you've got people who are saying right now the shouts are in charge, and they say, right now we're gonna, you know, screw you. You've been pushing us around and telling us what to do and im pressing us for too long. And then suddenly this Sunnis feel like they're the oppressed ones. Sunnis used to be the good guys. Remember that Irana Rak War. We were on the rock side and Sudney versus Shia. So the Sunnis are now upset and we think they're the kind of more peaceable Muslims. No, they're the ones who form ISIS and become worse than al Qaeda. They say, hey, al Qaida, you know what, you're a bit soft. Nine to eleven didn't go far enough.
Where they go, what about the new mob that's probably going to take control of Syria.
They are, well al Qaeda is.
About al Qaeda and ISIS, and they don't like Iran, some Turkish forces and and well Iran was Iran and Russia were the ones who were propping up ASAD. So basically, remember you know twenty fourteen peak of ISIS. They're blowing up people. You know, they're just marching through the levant, They're bulldozering innocent people in villages, They're blowing people up in the West, you know, the batter Klan theater in Paris and everything. Ice is going absolutely and we're all going what the hell? And all the Western forces are trying to sort of fight ASAD but fight ISIS at the same time, and of course we couldn't do it. We got completely sucking because we're on the side of the democratic rebels who are rising up to fight a SARDE. So, okay, we want to help them, the Arab spring yay, you know students who are out there. It would have been me at a young age if there were no guns, and so the West ones to help them. But as soon as they help these rebels are arm them. Iis just comes along and says, give me your guns, and the good rebels say, no, we are fighting for democracy, not fundamentalism. And Isa says, give us your guns or will kill you and your entire family. Okay, here's the guns. And this is actually what happened. All these Arab Spring protest movements right across North Africa and the Arab world all got hijacked by extremists. And of course that's what extremists do. They hijack things, and so the moderates always end up losing out because the extremists are always prepared to go to more extreme links losing the name. And so that's what's happening in Syria.
And then you look at the Russian situation.
And then that's right, but how much?
And it's interesting because you're just saying that in a way that a lot of it is to do with the meddling of the West, which the West can be accused of possibly meddling as well. In the Russia Ukraine situation, how how many times has Russia said it does not, it doesn't, it's right, does not want NATO on its doorstep, And then Ukraine is pushing for a NATO membership.
This is a valid point of view. This is something that a lot of people are kind of saying.
I've got Ukrainian.
Ukraine poke the bear.
I've got Ukrainian friends who've said, look, you know, obviously we don't like the disorder of our people or the you know, the advancement of Russian troops into our country. But at the same time, we can't understand that, you know that the Russia doesn't want the West anywhere near it.
That's right, And I think and again it comes down to problems with how these places were drawn up in the aftermath of giant global conflicts, like after you know, obviously after World War Two, Stalin got to take all the area between Russia and where the Red Army march to, which was East Berlin. Like so he just takes everything and he can do what he wants with it. And what he does is he sets up puppet regimes in Poland and blah blah blah. And he does the same thing in Ukraine, of course. But Ukraine is particularly special to the Russians because firstly, their origin story begins with the I think they call him the Kiev russ In the nine hundreds AD. And these were like supposed to be Vikings that came down from Scandinavia and then set up their first kind of trading out post town settlement whatever in Kiev. And they were the ones that became the Russians. And that's where that's where the name comes from, the russ and so Peutin and he goes and sells all this propaganda to the Russian Yeah, yeah, yeah, and so to the Russians. It's as though, you know, it's like, would you like telling Australia, Oh no, sorry, Sydney wants to be its own country. Now, Sydney wants to be independent. That's how they're they're seeing it. But the amazing twist, of course, is that I mean, but I suppose so there's all that historical stuff. But I've always thought, you can't fight wars based on history. You can't fight wars trying to do or undo history. This is how you have to deal with the world. You have to deal with the world as it is. Now. We're here, now, we're in this mess. Now, how do we go forward? How do we progress? I think all these conflicts Russia and Ukraine, you know, Israel and Palestine. They're all still going, they're all still alive, and people are still being killed because people are arguing over history, people are arguing over what happened before, whose fault it was, who started it. And the truth is, of course, you can make any argument on any side for whose fault it is and who started, and it will suit your purpose. In the meantime, people get killed, people die of old age. While these conflicts are still going, they don't get results. I mean, one of the big sticking points in Israel versus Palestine is all these displaced refugees insay the West Bank.
Who were on the border of Lebanon like sixty.
That's right, who are still saying that do not want to go to They don't want to go anywhere else. They don't want to stop and move on with a new life, because they're constantly being told no, you have to hang in there. You have to hold on to this historical claim of your parents or your grandparents to getting your house back that you lost in nineteen sixty seven or nine en forty eight or whatever it was, that right of return and the right of return, and so of course that makes it impossible to practically progress a peace plan, because you're fighting over trying to restore, to bring back a piece of history, to bring back things as they were at a fixed point in time, and that is obviously impossible to do without a time machine. And yet that seems to be what is consuming both sides, and so I think you have to say, right, what are the practical things we can do now in the meantime to actually move forward. So you're starting from a position of Israel and Palestine each denying the other's right to exist. You shouldn't be here, you shouldn't be here, all right.
Well.
One of the other big grievances of people on the West Bank, for example, is that Israel charges too much for its water and electricity, which is something I think all Australians can relate to high power bills. It pisces people off here and it pisces people off there. So you know, again, you could just say, all right, we will provide you power and electricity at the exact same price that Israel pays for it. Okay, how about that nice little gesture of good will, you know, and then you can talk about you know, there's settlers being in places where they definitely shouldn't be. I mean, this isn't even sort of contested Israel. Settlers are in places no way they should be, and you know, say all right, we'll move back here. And then if the Palestinians say, great, thanks very much, well we're still going to wipe you out. We still don't acknowledge your right to exist. Well, sure, maybe you've you know, lost a couple of minor details in the negotiating green, but you haven't really lost anything, and you've gained the moral high ground. One of the reason in the settlers are there. They are because it's the physical high ground they reckon for strategic pabasis. Crazy what so you can get a gun and like.
Isn't it that if they let the Palestinians move into that area, this is what they argue that they would have the line airport.
Yeah, that's right. So again this is where you get into sort of conspiracy that you know what, you're already at war. It can't get much worse, can it?
So?
And what about Russia and Ukraine?
Isn't Zelenski's sticking point that he's happy to let Russia keep the land that's already been taken as long as as long as Ukraine can intonate and that, which is just an absolute no from Russia.
Yeah, but I don't know. With Trump now in charge and telling people telling Zelenski's telling Putin that he's got to cut a deal, and with Zelenski knowing that maybe USAID might not be as forthcoming as it was, I think you will suddenly get to that point. And again, if if Ukraine gives back the eastern sort of Russian speaking parts of the country, and frankly, Crimea probably should have gone to Russia in the first place. Anyway, there's an argument, but you'd hold a referendum in the Russian speaking parts if the majority said yes, we want to be with Russia, you go, okay, fair cop leave the rest of us alone. But I think it would be reasonable to say, well, as an added ara of protection, we've just seeded all this territory to you. The least you can do is give us NATO, and Putin might cop that. And again, does that restore things? You know, that doesn't, That doesn't put things back to the way they were at some fixed point in time that you know, the Kiev, russ and the Vikings, you know, don't suddenly take over the capital city of Kevev again, and NATO didn't even exist back when you know, these first decisons were being made. But it's something you can live with. You say, well, we're here now, and this is something we can live with. This is the most practical thing we can get, and then people get used to it, and then that's your new sticking point for the next war in fifty years time.
Or has justin Timberlake put it crimea River. It feels like, you know, for all the pondering, you know, are we already in the middle of World War three? I think the signs and I don't even need the magic Eate wall for this.
The signs point of years, we're already in it.
We're in the middle of World Skirmish three. Yeah, they've probably been more than.
How much of that is because of us? Because of Western interference.
I think, and like you see that, you see that kind of mood as changing in the States. In the United States, they don't want to be involved in any more foreign wars.
They're exceptionalism.
Billions of dollars overseas to be part of a war that there's nothing.
To do with them.
Yeah, that's right, And again you can totally understand that. And there are plenty of wars that the West starts or rather responds to things happening overseas where there's often a call for them to come in and protect a Kuwait for example, or.
No where there's a vested interest, or to.
You know, where there happens to be a lot of oil. They seem to come a bit quicker, but or you know, you know nine to eleven where it's like, well, we can't we have to do something, like they have to do something in America is usually pretty terrible at fighting guerrilla wars or you know, invading care for a country that it's just so, that's right, So we're just going to turn this terror war into an actual whether the enemy is there and it's somewhere we can see in somewhere we can bomb and we think it's Saddam Hussein and we've got this intelligence. Didn't turn out to be right, but whatever, and of course going to Stan as well and all that stuff. So it does do these things, and it does go into their areas and screw them up. But I think there's two things. One is, once you've gone in there and messed it up, you have to clean up that mess. And the other thing, of course, is that sometimes you actually really do need the Americans to come in because the last time there was a bunch of America First rhetoric around. There's actually a movement called America First. There was a whole bunch of people who were urging America not to get involved in World War two. Just let the Nazis do their thing. It's not our problem, not our fight. Don't get involved. Turn that boat away with all the Jews on it. And Britain's entire survival strategy during the Battle of Britain during the Blitz was to get the Americans to come on board. And Whenston Churchill famously said, the Americans will always do the right thing once they've tried everything else. So once they've run out of all other options, I go, okay, fine, we'll come and help you beat the Nazis. And so there is that. But the other thing haws this really nice twist, though maybe a bad twist. The West's intervention in at least some ways, has actually brought about the downfall of Asad in Syria, because the only reason his regime has collapsed from no one saw this coming. All these rebels, you know, just started taking town after town after town out of town.
Ran was weakened.
Because Iran was concentrating on Israel, supported by the West. But Moran was concentrating on Israel. That so I couldn't send Hezbola and its other troops to help Syria. And Russia was too busy fighting Ukraine, which was being supported by the West, and so didn't have any resources to help Syria out, and so suddenly Syria.
Do you have a good feeling about Trump? I mean, Trump's famously declared that could he could end the war with Russia and Ukraine in a day, sought out the Middle East in just as much time.
Do you have of hopes that he can do that?
Do you know what, Sarah, I do have a good feeling about Donald Trump.
And I did you have a good about Donald Trump? But in this regard, I mean, is it beyond solving?
I do not think it is beyond solving, but I think it needs something brand new and exciting that is way out of what people have been doing before. And I think we should talk about this next week on the Real Story, when we discuss the comeback of Donald J. Trump. Can we just put the do you think you have to do bl okay, okay, what's the question?
Yeah, so hang on twenty twenty five, will we be engulfed in World War three?
You may rely on it.
What a way to go?
I want to go in helves in one of those underground bunkers.
All right, well, look, I think we've successfully solved all the world problems. But Sarah Harris come back next week and we will discuss the comeback of all comebacks by the comeback King Donald J. Trump Time Person of the Year. And that is all we have time for this week. Of course, if you like what you're here, give us a rating, give us a review. Only the five star works, and only ones with lots of nice emojis works. If you're leaving the review as well, you can drop the line at the Real Story at Nova Podcasts dot com dot au, or you can hit me up on the Gram Joe Underscore Hildebrand, slide into my dms and if there's anything you want discussed, anything you want to save, and if you just want to tell us how much you'll love the show, You're more than happy to hear you out. And of course you can catch me in the Daily Telegraph, another news mass heads around the country every Monday and Saturday until then, see you next week.