What do this week's Budget and inflation numbers — and next week’s likely 25-point rate rise — mean for 2023?

And how will that impact the role of bonds in portfolios?

Here's a quick explanation from Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.

--//--

Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

What do this week's Budget and inflation numbers — and next week’s likely 25-point rate rise — mean for 2023?
And how will that impact the role of bonds in portfolios?
Here's a quick explanation from Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.
--//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at <a href="https://www.pendalgroup.com/products/asset-class/australian-fixed-interest-funds/">pend.al/fixedinterest</a>
Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. <a href="https://www.pendalgroup.com/">Find out more at pendalgroup.com</a>

Perpetual Group is an international asset manager including boutiques such as Perpetual, Pendal, Barrow Hanley, Regnan and Trillium. Each week our portfolio managers share the most interesting things they've heard from CEOs, industry leaders and analysts.

Perpetual Group is an international asset manager including boutiques such as Perpetual, Pendal, Barrow Hanley, Regnan and Trillium. Each week our portfolio managers share the most interesting things they've heard from CEOs, industry leaders and analysts.

The Point: Professional investing in Australia with Perpetual

What the Budget, inflation and rates mean for investors

As 2026 gears up, the economic outlook in Australia, the US and around the globe is far from clear.

There is talk of K-shaped economies, interest rates rising in some economies and falling in others, and the ever-present geopolitical challenges.

In this podcast, Amy Xie Patrick, head of income strategies at Pendal, explains why Liberation Day tariffs didn't play out as predicted, what a K-shaped economy is and how investors should be thinking about it.

“Markets did have a very severe downturn… but why this didn't lead to the fears of a continued bear market… is twofold… a lot of Chinese producers had to eat the cost of tariffs… and the US economy has again surprised us with how resilient it's been all through 2025," says Amy.

“I just wouldn’t be too fearful here at this stage buying into the K shaped economy narrative and waiting for that other shoe to drop, because if you're too defensive… you’re sacrificing all this income, which fixed income is really about.”

Want more insight on how to navigate market uncertainty? Tune in now. 

--//--

Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pendal/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

--//--

This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

As 2026 gears up, the economic outlook in Australia, the US and around the globe is far from clear.
There is talk of K-shaped economies, interest rates rising in some economies and falling in others, and the ever-present geopolitical challenges.
In this podcast, Amy Xie Patrick, head of income strategies at Pendal, explains why Liberation Day tariffs didn't play out as predicted, what a K-shaped economy is and how investors should be thinking about it.
&ldquo;Markets did have a very severe downturn&hellip; but why this didn't lead to the fears of a continued bear market&hellip; is twofold&hellip; a lot of Chinese producers had to eat the cost of tariffs&hellip; and the US economy has again surprised us with how resilient it's been all through 2025," says Amy.
&ldquo;I just wouldn&rsquo;t be too fearful here at this stage buying into the K shaped economy narrative and waiting for that other shoe to drop, because if you're too defensive&hellip; you&rsquo;re sacrificing all this income, which fixed income is really about.&rdquo;
Want more insight on how to navigate market uncertainty? Tune in now.&nbsp;
--//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at <a href="https://www.pendalgroup.com/products/asset-class/australian-fixed-interest-funds/">pendal/fixedinterest</a>
Pendal is a global asset manager. <a href="https://www.pendalgroup.com/">Find out more at pendalgroup.com</a>
--//--
This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It&rsquo;s been prepared without taking into account any recipient&rsquo;s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients&rsquo; individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in this podcast&nbsp;may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in&nbsp;this podcast&nbsp;is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website&nbsp;<a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pendalgroup.com%2F&amp;data=05%7C01%7CDavid.Higgins%40pendalgroup.com%7Cfdc46f1ca2c249af188908db566608e3%7C82bfe2773f1645a49ff4f40692b556b9%7C0%7C0%7C638198768471544474%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=bo%2FK353stl%2BbgZg2TrxbQ2AY6%2FIRTSbtirIKerFH8Pc%3D&amp;reserved=0" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-safelink="true" data-linkindex="7">www.pendalgroup.com</a>

Amy Xie Patrick: How tariffs, tech and rates are shaping 2026

With rate cuts looking like they are coming to the end of the cycle, Pendal's head of government bond strategies Tim Hext provides his insights on the outlook for 2026.

"It is an unclear picture, but definitely the global rate cutting cycle - which was a feature of late 2024 and most of this year - is now over," explains Tim. 

He says rate cuts in Australia are highly unlikely at least for the next six to nine months based on the latest inflation data.

However, Tim is optimistic that inflation will not hit a level that is unsettling for the bond market.

"If you think back to last decade, we had inflation consistently slightly undershooting to 2% at the bottom of the RBA band, and we're going to see inflation consistently shooting above 3% for the first half of next year, but not at a level which will make things unsettled," he says. 

How does this rate uncertainty shape portfolio construction? Tim explains in this podcast.

--//--

Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

--//--

This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

With rate cuts looking like they are coming to the end of the cycle, Pendal's head of government bond strategies Tim Hext provides his insights on the outlook for 2026.
"It is an unclear picture, but definitely the global rate cutting cycle - which was a feature of late 2024 and most of this year - is now over," explains Tim.&nbsp;
He says rate cuts in Australia are highly unlikely at least for the next six to nine months based on the latest inflation data.
However, Tim is optimistic that inflation will not hit a level that is unsettling for the bond market.
"If you think back to last decade, we had inflation consistently slightly undershooting to 2% at the bottom of the RBA band, and we're going to see inflation consistently shooting above 3% for the first half of next year, but not at a level which will make things unsettled," he says.&nbsp;
How does this rate uncertainty shape portfolio construction? Tim explains in this podcast.
--//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at <a href="https://www.pendalgroup.com/products/asset-class/australian-fixed-interest-funds/">pend.al/fixedinterest</a>
Pendal is a global asset manager. <a href="https://www.pendalgroup.com/">Find out more at pendalgroup.com</a>
--//--
This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It&rsquo;s been prepared without taking into account any recipient&rsquo;s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients&rsquo; individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in this podcast&nbsp;may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in&nbsp;this podcast&nbsp;is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website&nbsp;<a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pendalgroup.com%2F&amp;data=05%7C01%7CDavid.Higgins%40pendalgroup.com%7Cfdc46f1ca2c249af188908db566608e3%7C82bfe2773f1645a49ff4f40692b556b9%7C0%7C0%7C638198768471544474%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=bo%2FK353stl%2BbgZg2TrxbQ2AY6%2FIRTSbtirIKerFH8Pc%3D&amp;reserved=0" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-safelink="true" data-linkindex="7">www.pendalgroup.com</a>

Tim Hext: Why 2026 could favour bond investors

What’s driving the rotation in equities around the globe at the moment?

Pendal portfolio manager Elise McKay points to the evolving flow of money. “The rise of passive, the rise of systematic trading have contributed to an increase of volatility in our market," Elise explains in our latest podcast.

“During the extreme market moves we saw last week, ETFs were accounting for 38% of market volumes compared to a historical average of around 28%.” 

With the market crowding into long-duration growth stocks, any sign of uncertainty in the economy or questions over the easing cycle help drive heavy rotation into cyclicals and financials.

How should investors approach this volatile period? Elise explains in this podcast.

--//--

Find out more about Pendal's Australian equities strategies here.

--//--

*Pendal has a position in the stocks mentioned in this podcast.

This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

What&rsquo;s driving the rotation in equities around the globe at the moment?
Pendal portfolio manager Elise McKay points to the evolving flow of money. &ldquo;The rise of passive, the rise of systematic trading have contributed to an increase of volatility in our market," Elise explains in our latest podcast.
&ldquo;During the extreme market moves we saw last week, ETFs were accounting for 38% of market volumes compared to a historical average of around 28%.&rdquo;&nbsp;
With the market crowding into long-duration growth stocks, any sign of uncertainty in the economy or questions over the easing cycle help drive heavy rotation into cyclicals and financials.
How should investors approach this volatile period? Elise explains in this podcast.
--//-- Find out more about <a href="https://pendalgroup.com/about/investment-capabilities/australian-equities">Pendal's Australian equities strategies here.</a>
--//--
*Pendal has a position in the stocks mentioned in this podcast.
This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It&rsquo;s been prepared without taking into account any recipient&rsquo;s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients&rsquo; individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in this podcast&nbsp;may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in&nbsp;this podcast&nbsp;is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website&nbsp;<a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pendalgroup.com%2F&amp;data=05%7C01%7CDavid.Higgins%40pendalgroup.com%7Cfdc46f1ca2c249af188908db566608e3%7C82bfe2773f1645a49ff4f40692b556b9%7C0%7C0%7C638198768471544474%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=bo%2FK353stl%2BbgZg2TrxbQ2AY6%2FIRTSbtirIKerFH8Pc%3D&amp;reserved=0" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-safelink="true" data-linkindex="7">www.pendalgroup.com</a>

What the Budget, inflation and rates mean for investors

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The Point: Professional investing in Australia with Perpetual

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