According to NBC:

In a major departure from past trends, the 2022 midterm election turned out to be nearly as much of a referendum on the defeated former president as it was on incumbent President Joe Biden, according to exit pollsconducted by Edison Research for NBC News and other networks.

Trump loomed large in the minds of voters and dragged down his party’s candidates — nationally and in key swing states with Senate races — despite being out of power. In many cases that blunted the impact of Biden’s unpopularity, and widespread economic pain, helping Democrats defy political gravity and hold their own.

Nationally, 32% of voters in 2022 said their vote was “to oppose Joe Biden.” But 28% said their vote was “to oppose Donald Trump,” even though Trump was out of office. That suggests Trump’s continued dominance over the GOP made the 2022 election, in the minds of voters, almost as much about a defeated former president as it was about the current president and party in power.

This presented a totally unique situation - where Trump was out after only one term, continued to do rallies, fundraised, endorsed candidates, and gave every indication he was going to run again.

According to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/trump-hurt-republicans-2022-elections-numbers-point-yes-rcna56928">NBC:</a>
<blockquote>
In a major departure from past trends, the 2022 midterm election turned out to be nearly as much of a referendum on the defeated former president as it was on incumbent President Joe Biden, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/how-election-data-is-collected">for NBC News</a> and other networks.
Trump loomed large in the minds of voters and dragged down his party’s candidates — nationally and in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/one-week-election-day-battle-senate-control-jump-ball-rcna54903">key swing states with Senate races</a> — despite being out of power. In many cases that blunted the impact of Biden’s unpopularity, and widespread economic pain, helping Democrats <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-agonize-2022-election-facing-political-gravity-final-stretch-rcna54148">defy political gravity</a> and hold their own.
Nationally, 32% of voters in 2022 said their vote was “to oppose Joe Biden.” But 28% said their vote was “to oppose Donald Trump,” even though Trump was out of office. That suggests Trump’s continued dominance over the GOP made the 2022 election, in the minds of voters, almost as much about a defeated former president as it was about the current president and party in power.
</blockquote>
This presented a totally unique situation - where Trump was out after only one term, continued to do rallies, fundraised, endorsed candidates, and gave every indication he was going to run again.

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