Is India Really Booming

Meet the Economist

Why 7.8% Fails Reality

The Import Shock Clue

GDP Deflator Explained

Double Deflation Debate

PPI Data Transparency Gap

 Services and Informal Sector

Jobs and Market Disconnect

What Must Change Next

Wrap Up and Takeaways

India’s latest GDP estimate shows the economy growing at 7.8%. Rajeshwari Sengupta, associate professor of economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research is unconvinced. She tells Anirban Chowdhury why weak job creation, subdued investment, falling import volumes and an unresponsive stock market sit uneasily beside the headline number. She also explains why a low GDP deflator is economically logical, how double deflation is supposed to improve measurement, and why India’s new producer price indices raise questions. The government may have corrected important weaknesses in the earlier GDP series. But without detailed sources, methods and historical comparisons, Sengupta argues, economists cannot independently establish what changed—or whether the new number is credible.

<p>India&rsquo;s latest GDP estimate shows the economy growing at 7.8%. Rajeshwari Sengupta, associate professor of economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research is unconvinced. She tells Anirban Chowdhury why weak job creation, subdued investment, falling import volumes and an unresponsive stock market sit uneasily beside the headline number. She also explains why a low GDP deflator is economically logical, how double deflation is supposed to improve measurement, and why India&rsquo;s new producer price indices raise questions. The government may have corrected important weaknesses in the earlier GDP series. But without detailed sources, methods and historical comparisons, Sengupta argues, economists cannot independently establish what changed&mdash;or whether the new number is credible.</p>

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The Morning Brief

India’s 7.8% GDP: The Number That Doesn’t Add Up