NFL Draft Preview ... Preview: Who's Taking a QB? | NFL Deep Dive

Published Mar 31, 2021, 5:26 PM

Albert Breer makes a very special appearance on a very special Tuesday Edition of the Monday Morning NFL Podcast, as he and Gary take a look at the draft's Big Five quarterbacks, and the teams that are most likely to take them.

*It seems most years there's a quarterback who comes out of nowhere, and this year that quarterback is Zach Wilson. Has he moved into the driver's seat to go No. 2?

*While the offensive talent Justin Fields had at Ohio State was elite, the offense's more advanced, pro-style elements might have meant fewer layups. With that in mind plus his physical traits, should he be a top-three target?

*A look at Trey Lance, and the difference between being a "loose" athlete and being an "explosive" athlete at quarterback, and why Lance might be very Josh Allen-ish.

*A discussion on Mac Jones, and how the idea of a "high floor" QB prospect has been turned on its head a bit.

*Also, we have a pretty good sense that quarterbacks are going with the top three picks, but what will the Falcons do at 4, and which teams might be looking to make a move up to snag a QB (and why)?

Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Hello, and welcome to the m m QUB Monday Morning NFL Podcast Tuesday Edition. This is a Tuesday edition. It's very special when you download this. If you sort of put it away for fifty years and then put it on eBay, it will be worth more when you sell off all your m m QUBED Monday Morning NFL Podcast download. So very exciting. It's also very special because I am joined by Albert Breer of The Albert Brier Show, and this is going to be our I'm terming this our draft preview preview because we're jumping into draft season here and uh, we're not going to go super deep in this show, but we are going deep in the next couple of shows. But broach, just to talk about some quarterbacks here. Yeah. Yeah, it's exciting, man, Like, this is a definitely a good class to look at. And I think what's cool about it is they're all a little bit different, and um, yeah, I think you'll legitimately have like four guys who you know, we could look at, maybe even five, Like I guess you go five like guys that we could look back at in three or four years and say, at the top ten quarterback in the league and why did team X Y or Z pass on him? So it's definitely like it's just a it's just like an intriguing class because uh and you can see it in their pro days too, which I've I'm kind of like a dork. I got it up on the TV now and everything else. Uh, but you can see some of the cool stuff these guys are like physically capable of doing. They are all physical marvels. And they're also like you kind of mentioned, they're all really unique evaluations here. These aren't like, you know, it's one thing to have a couple of guys who are like three year starters. Just In Fields probably has the most tape out there. Uh, I mean, look, they there there were people wondering if Zach Wilson should have been the starter last year at b y U this time last year, and uh now he's he's kind of penciled in at number two at this point. Yeah. And and and it's interesting because he sort of came out my radar, um, I guess the middle of the season. I mean, I don't know that I would have been able to really pick him out of the lineup last summer. Um. So he's like the kind of you know what Baker Mayfield was, what Kyler Murray was, what? Um, you know what? Uh what last year Joe Burrow was where you know, slowly during the season, you okay, like you start to hear and maybe he's in the second round, maybe he's in the and then you know, before you know what, the guys at the top of the draft and it seems like we have one of those sorts of guys every year and uh and yeah, you know what's interesting about him is just you know, you started to like there was a lot of skepticism at first, and well, he looks small when I watched him on tape. He looks small when you see him on TV. Um is his arm really that strong? And that's why I think like for him more than the other guys, like the process itself was sort of important, and that guy, like teams had a chance to kind of like actually sit down and look at him and see the throws he was making, and then the chance to go see him physically and kind of what he looks like. And I know that sounds like a little thing, but it actually isn't. It's a big deal, uh, to see like physically, like okay, like how how is this guy put together? I thought, you know, I think that was like a really really big deal for him, so you know, you sort of throw him in that category. And again, it feels like we have one every year now of the guy who's sort of like slowly came into the consciousness of the NFL and rose up the ranks over the course of the year. That is, uh, that is definitely him. And I'm glad you brought that up to because you've you've noted this in in your columns in the past couple of weeks here, But uh, a lot of teams are looking at the two class, just you know, keeping an eye on that, and it does not look like a strong class, and it does not look like they're are a lot of guys who are going to be available in free agency, especially now. The deck is certainly off the board. So if you want to find your next quarterback and you are let's say the San Francisco forty nine ers, this might be the year where if you were kind of on the fence about whether you're gonna jump up or not, this is kind a year to do it. Yeah, I mean, I think it definitely creates emergency, you know, and even like if you're like if you're like a Carolina right, Like, so if you don't get him this year and there's not like a guy at that level next year, now Matt Rule could be looking at going into year four still looking for his long term answer. You know, um, George Peyton and Denver, like if they just decided to tread water with Drew Lock this year and Drew Lock doesn't wind up being the guy, then there's not another one available next year. Now are you going into maybe three and the year three? Um with George Peyton not having your long term guy? I think the best Yeah, I think there's like a really direct comp out there. Um, this class to another class is eighteen UM, and there were a lot of guys in that class, like this class that we had sort of heard of for a long time. Now, Baker kind of rose through the ranks. Everybody knew who he was, but like seeing him as an NFL prospect, that took time. But Josh Rosen, Sam Donald, Um, Josh Allen, those guys have been on the NFL radar for a while. And was this perception that year If you look a year beyond, there wasn't much and you know, what Gary like that sort of wound up being true, right, Like if you look at the next year's class, it was Kyler going first overall, who's like a five ft ten like I mean like kind of like an an aberration of an athlete, right, and then you know Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins. So if you actually look at like the last time this happened, it sort of held true. And you know, like if you I think if you ask like a team like Buffalo that that acted with a lot of urgency that year and going and getting their guy, like they would say like, thank god we did, because if we hadn't done that the next year, we might have really been up a creek at that position. And so I think it's the same sort of thing where like you know, I don't know, like a J. T. Daniels or a Spencer Rattler or Keaton Slovis. You know, one of these guys could wind up really jumping up the board over the next year. Um, but there's no guarantee of that. And without really having a guy where you're looking at a year ahead of time and saying okay, like like Justin Herbert was going into or like you know Trevor Lawrence was this year without having at least one guy were you're looking at and saying that guy is gonna be the top of the draft next year. Like going into a season, it's sort of scary because you know, for a lot of these teams, you're looking at and you're seeing like it's like a two year outlook where we don't know what we're not sure what could have, what could happen, And so I think that's why you're seeing some of the same urgency. And it's I think it's at least notable that if you go back to two thousand and eighteen, you see four of the five quarterbacks that went in the first round that year were subject of trades up right, the Jets trade up for Donald, the Cardinals trade up for Rose, and the Bills traded up for Alan and the Ravens traded up for a Lamar. So I want to ask you about the other three guys real quick. We're kind of ignoring Trevor Lawrence here. I mean, that's that's uh, that's just about etchton Stone, right with the Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville at this point, right, we don't need to break down any Yeah, yeah, it's uh the the the other three. I do want to start with Justin Fields one because you are the uh I don't know, the the the foremost expert on Ohio State football. But uh I still think and look these are my unprofessional rankings. I still think Justin Fields is QV two. And I want to put this in front of you real quick, because on one hand, obviously, if you're in a house state quarterback, like Justin Fields was, you benefit from the talent around you and you're gonna be playing with guys who are better than all the guys who lined across you in the Big ten and that's just the way it is. On the other hand, I don't think that's an offense that does a ton of favors for the quarterback. I don't want to say it's not quarterback front. There just there aren't a lot of like layups are It's not a ton of r PO type stuff. Um, I think it's a lot of option routes. It's it's it's a lot of option routes which by design you kind of have to hold the ball a little bit longer, and and again tons of talent. But uh, I think it's I think it's one that just doesn't give him a lot of gimmes when when it's also Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, I like it's sort of like I guess with all you know that the you know three at least three of the guys UM this year and Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence and then Justin Fields, all three of them were you know, ninety five percent of the games they played in their teammates were better than the other teams players, right like and and in most cases significantly. So, so that's definitely part of the equation. Uh. Yeah, I mean I think that there's definitely been a shift in what Ohio State UM was and what it's become going from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day, and they do a lot of they do a lot more pro stuff, and so Justin was sort of Justin was part of that transition and and Ryan Day going from offensive coordinator to head coach. UM. I do think if you talk to people there, they will tell you, like, he he just needs to play more. He's a multi sport athlete in high school. UM. You know, he like has been able, you know, his whole life to get away with being the best athlete in the field. He plays hero ball a little bit too much. But I look at that stuff is like you can coach that. I mean, like like you can't coach four four in the forty. You can't coach the throws he can make. I think you can coach the stuff that he needs out like you know you can. You can. You can coach his tendency to hang onto the ball too long and try to do something ridiculous. You can coach that out of him. Right. Um, there are a lot of things he has that you can't coach, and so you know, does he need some work, Yeah, but he's been asked to do some things that are going to assimilate pretty well to the NFL, and can you do them better? Sure he can, but at least he's sort of been broken into some of that. And you know, now, I think it's just gonna be sort of a matter of like how does justin Field adjust his game just the way he works too to being on a field where athletes are much closer to what he is. The guys that are trying to knock his head off are going to be obviously, you know, a lot closer athletically to where he is Trey Lance. Uh I, I I don't really have hesitancy because the FCS thing I think we've seen, I mean we saw Carson Wentz was whatever you think of Carson Wentz. Now, Carson Wentz was ready to play as a rookie a couple of years ago. Obviously you're looking at small sample size though with with Trey Lance and uh one game last year, So I don't know. You look at the tape, you see some anticipatory throws that that he'll be making in the pro game. I like him a lot of the prospect. I like all four of these guys. I mean, if we're being honest, I like all four. Uh look better. I like him better than twa um where I the Dolphins. But that is maybe just me. But um, I like Trey Lance. I guess maybe you're looking at a half season red shirt or something like that, But um, I think he gets on the field in yeah, and I think he's like So it's interesting, Gary, Like I go back to you know, and I make calls over the summer and generally I'll do like a column in the summer that like looks at the next year's quarterbacks, and um, so I try to like kind of like kind of kind of educate myself. I guess on what each each guy is. And when I started to make calls on Trey Lance, I don't know, it's probably like June of last year and you see the outrageous stat line. I think it was twenty eight to nothing, right like the touchdown interception ratio his red shirt freshman year and they go sixteen and o, so zero losses, zero interceptions, right like, um, the one year he played, you know, you sort of like like like you start to kick around little bit. And the one thing that came up that was really interesting was and this was from multiple scouts, he'd be a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense because of how good he is throwing on the move, because he can think on his feet, because you know, he is able to throw at all three levels. Like and so I think, like just you know, and it's again it's a little bit like Justin and I think all of these guys, right like Mac Jones has seventeen stars, Trey Lance has seventeen stars, Justin Fields has twenty two starts. Like generally you'd want a guy to have more games under his belt than that um. But you know, I think that there are certain things with Trey Lance, like where you know he's he's going to just need the experience of seeing more things, so similar to fields where he just needs to play more. But you know, like I said, with fields in Ohio State, the things they do in North Dakota State, like they're give him a baseline, and I think so for certain types of offenses, I think he really will fit. I don't know that he's is loose of an athlete like he here's a little stiff like, so I don't know if he's a loose of an athlete as Zach Wilson is or as justin Fields is um. But you know the word that you kind of the word that comes up with him, and I think this is where the Josh Allen comparison comes in is explosive, like right, like so what does that mean? Well, you know, maybe he's not going make the wild off balance throw, um, or you know, maybe he's not going to you know, joke someone out of his shoe out of their shoes, but he sure could blow by people and he sure kim drive the butt ball down field. So everything about him, like what you hear is everything about him is explosive and um you know. So that's why I think there's like an interesting Josh Allen comparison there where you know, you saw Josh coming out of Wyoming and the circumstances were completely different because you know, like I mean, Josh Allen like at Wyoming had to win a lot of games by himself, and so I think that's why you saw some of the crazy stuff you saw, whereas like you know, on a lower level, but similar to to Lawrence Fields and um and uh to to Lawrence Fields and Mac like I mean Mac, No, not not Wilson, but the other three like like nine percent of the time Trey Lance his teammates were better than the guys that they were playing against, right because North Dakota stayed at that level is dominant, you know, So like I think it's it's it's one of those two. So um, yeah, I mean, like the way I see it, like with him, like there's just you know, and that would be the difference between him and and the tape on him and the tape on Allan. But you know, I think just an explosive athlete, you see that that actually like is a stylistic fit already for a certain type of of NFL offense, which I mean part of that. I mean it makes like the Niners moving up to three really interesting because I do think there's gonna be a lot of things about Lance than in trade Kyle Shanahan. Yeah, are we sort of uh reading the tea leaves? Is that our best guests right now that the four nowanders is coming up in getting tree Lance, assuming that Zack Wilson goes goes to Yeah. I mean, look, there's a lot about mac Jones that matches up. Um, there's a lot about mac Jones that matches up with uh, with with what Kyle Shanahan has one within the past. And I mean the three names everybody's gonna pull out right now are are you know match Shob Kirk Cousins and and Matt Ryan And there are some similarity there. Um, So I think the mac Jones thing is real, Like I think that, I think the Niners are gonna look at it. Minor standing is they haven't made a final decision on anything, and that was part of why they wanted to do the deal as early as they did, because they so they would have a month where they didn't have to sneak around, you know, getting to know these guys that they could actually just you know, put their cards on the table. We're here and now we're gonna take a very thorough look at each of them. But I do think that like from uh, you know, stylistic standpoint, especially with you know, Jimmy Garoppolo, with with with their approach that we're gonna keep Jimmy Garoppolo and the roster for another year, I think you like, I know, their model was Kansas City, like where it's like, let's have Jimmy Garoppolo here for a year and then, you know, the same as it was with Alex Smith in Kansas City, will turn the reins over a year from now and we will hope that our guy played well enough that we can get some real trade value back for him. Um. That would be a perfect set up for for Trey Lance. And I know that people feel like Mac Jones is more need to play um coming from Alabama. UM. And if that's really true, right, like which I'm not a scout, I don't know, um, but you know, if that's really true, then I mean the idea that you hold on to Jimmy Garoppolo would actually probably help you with a Tray Lance and may actually I guess kind of point, I guess you know, gonna score like a point on on on Trey Lances Ledger there and saying like, yeah, like that makes some sense that if you're gonna draft a guy like Trey Lance coming from one double A has only played one game over the last fourteen months, then yeah, it would make sense to approach it and say, let's hold on to Jimmy for a year. Let's give a tray a chance to develop, and if he comes along faster and we think that, then we think he will. You know, maybe we get to August, we have a decision to make, and maybe we trade Jimmy. Then As far as mac Jones goes, I mean, look at the guys, the guys who seem really break out in recent years and mean the trades guys Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Uh, mac Jones is probably not in that class. Do you have a sense of of how far back he lags as far as just the physical traits go? Uh? And is that the comp is is Cousins the camp or or Matt Ryan the comp for him? Yeah, I think Matt Ryan's a decent comp um. You know. The weird thing is like it's just like it's like kind of like a rough look for Mac joh I mean, you know, we're taping this on Tuesday afternoon and Mac Jones and Justin Fields just um finish their pro days and it's kind of like comical looking at the body types against each other, you know what I mean. Like it's just like you're looking at two completely different type of types of athletes and um, you know what you hear with what you hear with Mac Jones is he's got a good enough farm, right, he's got enough athleticism. You're not hearing that with the other guys, are you? You don't hear the word enough a lot with other guys? Do you carry? Yeah? I mean I hear constantly, you know, you hear enough constantly. The bar has changed a little bit. Yeah, So like you see like athletic enough of farm. And you know it's interesting because I kind of feel like this way, you know, like so when people compare shorter quarterbacks to Drew Brees, I really feel like you're like threading the needle there, right, Like it's like there was like one of those guys like and like he was like unbelievably competitive and unbelievably accurate and unbelievably football smart and went to the exact right place in New Orleans and played for the exact right coach and he's indoors and all this stuff right. And I sort of feel the same way when people compare guys to Brady, Like how many of those are there? You know what I mean, Like you're really threading the needle when you're like and I've heard the comparison with Mac to Brady, and it's like you are really like a lot of things have to go right, you know what I mean, Like in a lot of like the intangibles are going to not only have to check out now, but check out over like a ten fifteen year period, um, you know. I just that's the thing about him now, Like you know, I mean, Kyle Shanahan like believes in his system and he wants somebody to run his like wants somebody to run run a system a certain way and want somebody who will play with instructure. And that's a huge reason why he liked Kirk so much. And I don't know that like to me, like that was sort of the issue some of the issue with Jimmy was Jimmy freelance is a little bit and you know, I know that they sort of you know, like that was part of the reason why, like God, like he's freelancing, he's getting hurt and you know, so like that's where the mac Jones thing makes sense to me with Kyle is that like mac Jones, will play, will run, the offense is a structure to be run. And you know, you hear the way the guys at Alabama talk about him, um, what Sark has said to teams about him, um, and what like Devonte Smith and Jalen Waddle have said that they'd prefer him to to a tongue of aaloa. Like all that stuff checks out. It's just I think the question you have here is, like, is the margin for error with mac Jones? Like does everything sort of have to hit perfect for it to work for him? Whereas with some of the other guys like a Trevor, like a Zach, like a Justin, like a like a Tray Do those guys have a little bit more margin for air where they can make it happen for the first two or three years of their career with their athleticism get by with that, which you'll buy them time to develop. I's gonna say the idea of a high floor quarterback prospect has really sort of been turned on his head the last couple of years. Here. It's strange, isn't it too? Like you think about it like it's really I don't know, Like I I remember thinking this the middle of the year. I wrote something on it like was short, but I wrote something on it was like you always thought of like I almost had like a and I don't know if you were this way, but like I always had like this bias and maybe it goes back to JaMarcus Russell or whatever, but like I always said this, like bias against the guy who's like six five and can run and has a huge arm, and like I was almost like conditioned to think that that those things don't work out, you know what I mean. And then we have the homes and then we have Josh Challen and we were justin Herbert and it's like, well, you know what like now like like it's definitely changed the way that I look at these guys, There's no question, no absolutely, I mean that the idea of you know, looking at a guy and saying like, well, here's your game manager, Like, well, your game manager might not be able to play at all. The way it comes down to it, you can you can solve problems with the other guys who can sort of create their own time in space here, and uh, that's that's kind of where the game is going. I mean, I just you know, and you sort of wonder. It's like, is Matt Jones And this is where like the Andy Dalton thing comes out, And I think Andy Dalton is unfairly slandered and it's just fine as an NFL quarterback, like got the Bengals to the playoffs and they and they had never come close to this level of success, got to the Bengals to the laast five years in a row, is first five years in the league. But I think that sort of tells the tale on Andy, right, Like, which is like, is Mac Jones the quarterback that you're going to be really happy within year one, but you're looking or a place in year four? Does that make sense? It does absolutely, you know what I'm saying, Like you really have you're really happy with him to begin with, but then four or five years down the line, you're sort of, do we need to go and get another one. Mm hmm. Well, let's uh, let's look at basically which teams are gonna be in the market for these guys come up, come drafted here, and you know a couple of variables out there right now. But it looks like this this might as far as the veteran quarterback moves go, we might be sort of locked in with what we have here. So we know the Jaguars at one, we know the Jets at two, or if they go elsewhere, they will trade out of there and someone will come up too. And we know the Fortys at three. The Falcons are the team that interests me. Obviously Matt Ryan can still play. They might look at him and say, well, this guy's got a good three or four years left, so why why do it now? But um, if you if you that to make the call, now, what's what's your sense on what the Falcons do? I think they take one? Um? You know, I just think again, like I sort of do the math on these things, and it's like you're picking fourth. Overall, you don't plan on being bad for for two for your first two years, right, Like maybe year one they got to clean out the cap everything else. But you're not playing on being bad for your first two years, so you're picking fourth. Overall, you don't know what the landscape is gonna look like next year with the quarterbacks, which I think it has to be a factor for everybody. And you know, you're looking at the landscape here. And if Justin Fields falls into I mean, either Fields or Lance is going to be there for him, presumably um and two I would say, you know whatever, two of the three Fields Lance Mac, like two of the three are gonna be there for him, like you know, and and and this is a chance to have a smooth transition where you have Matt Ryan still on the roster and the young guy can learn from him and you can kind of have a natural like handing off of the position. It just makes so much sense. Here's the other thing. They've done all the work that the Jets have done. They've done all the work that the Niners are going to do. They've done all the work that the Panthers have done. Like if you look at like the delegations, and this year, the delegations matter because the schools are only allowed to have you're only allowed to have three guys at each pro day, right and look at who's sending their general manager and their head coach and their offensive. If you look at it, it's like the Falcons are doing as much work as the Jets are, and I'd say even more so because their head coach has been at every one of these right. So, like, I just think if you read those tea leaves and you see the work they've done, and you look at the landscape the next two years, and you figure, if you're Arthur Smith, you know, maybe you've kind of like figure, all right, well, you know, maybe we're gonna be four and twelve this year because we had to kind of clean up the cap a little bit. Are you sure as hell don't want to bank on being four and to them two thousand and twenty two. Like, I just add all of that up, and I just unless they really just don't like the class, which I I think something likely. I think the likelihood is they take one. And if they don't take one, because I think they have to, you know, add some young, cheap talent to the roster because of that cap situation. I think that they have to look at moving out, whether it's Carolina, which would be hard to do because it's in the Division or Denver, the Patriots, whoever it is coming up, like, I think that they would have to look at the idea of trading out. So I think for you know, whether it's the Falcons picking one there or another team coming up for it, it seems a likelihood now that this will be the first draft ever where it's you know, quarterbacks one, two, three, four. Yeah. I was gonna say, that's that's a tough spot for Carolina if if the Falcons are gonna do a deal there at four, and like you said, maybe Falcons don't want to get out of there anyway. But um boy, this is a it's a fascinating quarterback class, this whole draft class in general. It's uh, it's plenty of help for offenses here. You got another billion receivers coming in, which I guess will be the norm year after a year. At this point, you even have a good offensive line class for the first time in I don't know, like thirty years. Yeah, I mean, the receivers are really interesting to me because it's like I already hear you already here about next year's receivers, which is the same way it was last year, and it's just it's fascinating because I think that there's there's definitely something bigger at work here, which I mean, we could do a podcast on that alone. How seven on seven, how the game is being played in high school, how coaches are putting their best best athletes at receivers. So you're seeing that have an effect on what the NFL is getting the way you know college offenses work like there's a very real reason why there are so many great receivers there. And uh yeah, I mean this wasn't I don't think there's a one or two year thing that we've got these receiver classes that are great at the top and then deep after that. All right, Albert, thank you for in us. You have Nick kiss Sario on The Albert Brier Show this week, and by the way, that features Albert Brewer as well. Is on that show. Uh that comes out every Wednesday, but it's a special Tuesday episode. We have three Tuesday episodes in the MMQB podcast family this week between this one, the week Side Podcast as a show out, and Albert with Kisserrio. It's not too much either. Lots of stuff going on. Absolutely, Albert, we will we'll talk to you later in a draft season here all right, thanks Gary. The mm QB Monday Morning NFL podcast is Albert Breer and me Gary Grambling. We are produced by Shelby Royston, sid's executive producer of podcasts at Scott Brody. Mark Rabick is Emeritus editor of the MMQB, and Andy Benoit is the founder of the MMQB NFL podcast. Be sure to subscribe to this feed, as well as the feeds for the week side podcast on The Albert Breer Show. They're all for free on Apple Podcasts, and once you do subscribe, please leave a rating and review for all of them. It really does help other people find the shows, which are also available on Spotify, Radio dot Com, Stitcher, s I dot com, and wherever else you listen to podcasts.

The MMQB NFL Podcast

The MMQB NFL Podcast brings you unique, informed and immediate analysis from around the NFL. Whether 
Social links
Follow podcast
Recent clips
Browse 492 clip(s)