Andy and Gary wrap up the division preview series with the most-wide-open division in football. The Packers might not have been 13-wins-good last year, but there's room for improvement. Plus, the arrival of Yannick Ngakoue and figuring out how the young secondary will work in Minnesota, whether or not there's hope for Chicago's offense, and why the Lions have as good a shot as any of these four teams.
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Hello, and welcome to the mm QB Monday Morning NFL Podcast. I am Gary Grambling. He is Andy Annoit. We have reached the exciting conclusion of the division preview series. And if you put the mysteries together, he followed the bread crumbs and you solved what we were doing, you will know that this is the NFC North preview in this episode, or if you just read the episode title or description before you started listening, you've used that before. You know it's I don't think I have Oh yeah, I not in this series of division previews, but you've used it before in the history of our podcast, in our casual conversations. That's how I start most of my phone calls to people. That's why I have no friends, and you're the last one and you're contractually obligated to talk to me. So I think this NFC North is the most winnable division, most open, wide open division of the of the eight Yes, which is the optimistic way of of of putting it. It's wide open. It's also I don't know if I see very good teams here. I don't see very bad teams, but I don't know if I see a particularly good team in this division. But look, before we get going in this, you have a little you have a little bit of an experiment going on. You're gonna try something maybe this season, but but you wanna you want to get a little test run first. Yeah, we need to experiment the experiment first, because we've kicked around the idea of doing live film sessions on Friday afternoons on on Zoom. People are doing all the Zoom stuff now, so you know, that'd be a subscription type thing if we're able to do it, But we need to know if we can. So what I'm getting at is, if anybody wants to participate in a trial film session on Zoom and be the second one. I did the first one with our couple of the guys that help us on this podcast the other day. But um, if everyone wants to participate in that probably an hour of of just watching film via Zoom, Um, email me at Andy but NFL at gmail dot com and we'll get you in there. Because what we need to find out is how many people can we hold, how's it gonna work dialogue wise? What do people want when we're watching the film sessions. We're gonna learn on the fly, but There'll be a lot of film watched too, because that we're gonna do that. We're gonna get through the football part of it too. So Andy Benoit NFL at gmail dot com, you've got something clever to say. I can see by the look on your face on our zoom right now. Actually, I was just gonna say, Uh, you might learn something too, is what you are sort of leading up to. Did I not get to that part? You will learn something. I hope you'll learn something. Yeah, we're I know I'm gonna learn something. If my internet freesce, I'm gonna learn how angry it makes me and decide if it's something I still want to do on Friday afternoons. Well, there you go. Let's let's dive into this division now, Andy, the the NFC North. As always, we will have our projections at the end of the show. These are not the projections of the order we're going in here. We are just going in or of last year's standings. And uh, the team that we just disrespected greatly and all their fans are furious and throwing things around their home right now, the Green Bay Packers, because they won thirteen games last year. There's a thirteen win team that was one game short of the Super Bowl. Uh. I mean, look at it's all about the offense with this team. The headlines are always Aaron Rodgers, Matt Lafleore, How are they gonna make it work? You know, how is it gonna how is it gonna meld here? These two different sort of styles. By the end of last season, what what did you feel about this offense? Where do you think it stood? I think it stood in a better place than it did early in the season. And the concern, just to recap for everybody, it's not an audible's conversation. Remember that was the big story about I guess it was about May of twenty nineteen. Is can Rogers audible? And you know that's the bigger concern is Roger's style of play messing in Matt Lafleur's system because Rogers is much an offbeat often he's an off schedule type of QB. That's where a lot of his greatness has come from. And La Fleur's system is all about timing and rhythm. So how do you get those two guys to meld together? Because they're here because they need each other. La flour is a chance to to coach a great QB and ran run one of the best schemes in the NFL in Green Bay and Green Bay their their brass felt that they needed to change their offensive approach. So Rogers and La Fleur can they meet in the middle. I felt watching the film Gary early last season that La Fleur was really accommodating Rogers a lot, and we didn't see the full system from Green Bay that we may be expected, And I don't know, you know, we never quite did fully at any point during the length of the season, but what we did see as things when along was a little bit more motion pre snap. Some of the run game became a little more foundational for Green Bay. Even if you're not running the ball twenty five or thirty times a game, you still want your run game to have a feel of foundation because the systems built off of play action and all the related concepts that come with it. Rogers, I thought, became more consistent and sharper and some of those mainstay designs as the season went along, and I do think there's plenty of room for growth still, and they'll be interesting to see how it is here in year two, because they haven't really practiced this offseason. I don't know what that's gonna mean. We say that, we say about any team, I guess at any point, but that's kind of where we're standing with things. It's it's it was not a great offense last year. That's that's the truth of it. But it was an improving offense. YEA had its moments, but overall just really an uneven year. And and look, we in the media, this is what we do. We we drum up conflicting controversy and and then we cash in our millions of dollars. But the fact that they drafted Jordan's Love, that that did that fueled this a little bit. I mean, there's no other way of putting in. This is still a storyline now, yeah, no question. And and I don't know why they drew after Jordan's Love. I think there are two schools of thought. Is one is they're looking to replace Rogers sooner than maybe we would have guests, um and that's not gonna be this season. But you know, that's that's one school of thought. The other school of thought is maybe there's three schools of thought and they kind of overlap. But the other one is the front office Brian Guttenkind's the general manager. You know, he comes from a philosophy of of investing in the quarterback position and drafting them and developing them. That's how the organizations he's been with before, that's how they've done things. Are the people he's learned under have done it that way. So it's not quite the Bill Walsh thing where you draft a QB every year, but it's along that's it's it's a cousin of that theory. And then the other thing to maybe consider Gary is if you think about Green Bay, Okay, we were thirteen and three. We believe we're gonna be that good again this year. Uh, if we still believe in Aaron Rodgers and we're gonna be that good. Uh, we think we're gonna be that good in twenty two as well, probably going to We're gonna be drafting late in the first round. Is the point. And Jordan's Love is one of the most talented raw talents that we've seen at QB in quite a while. We don't think we're gonna find a quarterback with more talent than Love available to us any time in the next few years. We don't need them to play right away. We have a bunch of quarterback coaches on our staff. Matt Lafleur's main thing is working on QB mechanics. That's where Floora's background is, and that's where Love needs to work is he needs to tidy up a lot of his fundamentals. We've got time to work with that guy like that. Usually don't the NFL, but in Green Bay we have time to make it work like that. Yeah, let's let's go to the defensive side of the ball here, because that is an area where they do have continuity. They probably didn't need a ton of practice here. However, the one big change Blake Martinez out Christian Kirtzy in certainly uh an upgrade in terms of athleticism. Uh. Look, it's a young defensive ackfield. The Smiths really proved they could provide a pass rush a year ago. I've always liked Mike pett and I've always liked his defenses. I think the continuity really plays into that. Uh. And I just kind of wonder, is this unit, which was very good last year, are they going to take another step forward this year and and be sort of the top three, top five unit. It's I think it's reasonable to think that that's a possibility. Now, you know, there are certain metrics you can look at with this defense, and I guess the big one is a lot of their best work came against teams that did not have great quarterbacks last year. That's one of the things I've heard discussed, and I think there's probably some validity to that. At least that's a fair point. I don't know, that's a point. That's easy to get carried away with those as well. He's you're still winning NFL games against the NFL coaches and quarterbacks in NFL offenses. But this defense, if they take a step forward, yeah, they probably become a top five type of unit. I don't know where we're exactly, not that it matter. There's a whole lot. What do you know where they ranked exactly last year? I'll look them up. What do you do you like? Total yards? You like? No, I don't like like d V O A. I think it starts. I mean I like points. The problem is points get you know, points allowed? Of course, you know those can be a little bit skewed as well, because if your offense turns a ball over a bunch, you're given up short fields. You know green Bay was ninth in points, eighteenth in yards. UM really with you know the best one, By the way, the best stat for I think a past defense is passer rating against that It's hard to find. You don't see it very often on the mainstream stuff. Turnovers are an important staff, but I don't know if they can be representative of what you expect from a defense year to year. Here's what green Bay is built on, though high pressure looks. When they do pressure, it's gonna be convoluted pressures disguised overloads will be aggressive. They're not just gonna send a fifth guy and then and then hope it works out. They're gonna have a real attack mindset to the pressure. UM. A lot of man coverage comes behind that by nature. One thing we did see from Mike Petton those as they incorporated a lot more cover to last season. And Patton had never really been a cover two guy before. He had not coached it a whole lot in the NFL. But for a variety of reasons, one that we could probably fill a whole podcast with another day, cover two is a fast rising tactic in the league right now. One of the reasons is because and cover two you have five underneath defenders. The cornerbacks stay underneath, they don't run with the receivers, so they guard the flats, and then you have the three linebackers in between them. That kind of crowd the middle of the field. That's two corners, three linebackers. You've got five guys underneath. And there are some teams that think that's a good way to guard the sticks on third and short. Most teams think man demand is, but some teams are going Cover two now because it handles those switch releases that you see mostly those stacks and rubs and all the stuff you get from the the Julian Edelman type offensive approaches. Over the years, anyway, green Bay has started falling into that category a little bit. So if we have a defense gary that can play man to man, which they can, they have a lot of. That's why they draft these dbs in the early rounds. Kevin King's second round, Jarry Alexander, who's probably a top five corner by the end of this season. He's a first rounder, Darnell Savage first rounder. They do that because they play man coverage, but these guys can also get into Cover two and be effective, which they should be more effective this year than last year. That's a very multiple defense. The only other team that's really like that, and it's to a lesser degree that Off the top of my head, I want to say it would be Pittsburgh, who had probably the best defense in the league last year. Pittsburgh's more zone oriented than green Bay. But when you can do a lot of things if your back end of your scheme, that's that's very empowering for a defensive unit. And then you mentioned the Smith brothers. That was that's a difference maker upfront. Gosh, before we move on to the Viking and I I just want to say the projections on this show at the end, they're they're gonna be breathtaking, a lot of it. I'm just gonna say eight mate, probably across the board. You know how I feel about doing this projection and every other division. It just felt like, well, Okay, this team is probably gonna win. Who do you think can make the playoffs? Everything? Uh, yeah, we'll see how this goes. Wait a minute, what has what just excited you about that to make you say that now? Because we kind of talked about that at the front, and then I just went on a very long tangent about Cover two, which I'm eager to go back and listen to and see if I was way off the rails or if it makes sense in the flow of the show. Probably not now that I've called it out like this. But while I was talking, what made you think about, Hey, this is a competitive division, we'd already covered that. No, because I'm I'm buying into the Packers more and more. I was so down on the Packers. I wanted to project the Packers to be two and fourteen, and now I think, uh, I think they're going for which means that you must be really high on one of these other teams that we're getting too later then, because Green Bay was thirteen and three in the first place last year. So it's not even if you are down on the Packers, you might think they're a nine and seven or eight and eight type of team. Who do you think is the eleven and five team? Then that that there's ahead of them, there's there's a team I picked to go to the super Bowl every year and one year they'll make the playoffs. Yeah, we'll get to be to them later. Yeah, grand finale, I said, all right, let's go on to the Vikings. And let's you know, let's let's start with the news cycle here. Let's go with the big move of the weekend. Yannick ck Way traded to the Vikings from the Jaguars. They'll give up a second round pick and second pick that will fall between rounds three and five, depending on some stuff. But uh, you know, Andy, you were, you were a little concerned about losing everything Griffin here for this, for this Vikings defense, they get younger and it seems like they get better. Right. Um, Yeah, perhaps I was concerned earned about Griffin because Minnesota has lost a lot of defensive starters, and their whole thing on defense has been the continuity, and that's why they've been a top five defense for most of the last several years, I'd say, And that's not the case anymore. I thought, of all the guys they lost, the back end guys, the corners. We can get to that in a second. But I thought the only real major losses off season for them was ever since Griffin at defensive end. And maybe he wasn't quite what he was a few years ago, but that doesn't that doesn't mean he was not still a borderline elite all around player. For them, and they don't have the greatest depth along their d line. You need edge rushers in the NFL. Griffin's gone, There goes his bull rush. But now you have Yannick and gok Way, who's a different type of rusher, more of an agility guy. But we're we're replacing good with great almost here as an edge rushing since Yeah, and and let's talk about that secondary a little bit. Obviously, having a great pass rush does take some of the uh, some of the burden off of your defensive backfield old collective shoulders there. But uh, like you mentioned, I mean they lost approximately ten thousand cornerbacks this offseason. They're gonna have some young guys in there. Uh. Mike Hughes is really the only semi established guy they bring back. And then you got a got a lot of rookies. He got Holton Hill, a young guy. Uh. My question, you, Andy, is how difficult is this Mike Zimmer system for a young cornerback, for a rookie cornerback, because i mean, look what we've seen in the past, Zimmer is not crazy about leaning on rookies in his defensive backfield. He's not in his methods is very often been to develop those guys from the bench, and we'll see if it pays off now, because they're really counting on Mike Hughes to be their top corner and that's a guy they've developed primarily from the bench who's did get a lot more playing time last season. Um, what makes it challenging for a corner in this scheme? The Vikings are a too deep safety defense, but usually when you say that, you mean cover two as their foundation. In Minnesota will play that at times that they're protecting the lead, but really what they're known for is playing cover four. So the safeties, instead of being rolled over the top of cornerbacks, are now right inside of the corner. So the back four defenders each have a fourth of the field. The safeties have the two inner fourths, the corners have the outside forts and you play matchup zone within it. Whoever comes into year one fourth area you match up to him, and offenses create route combinations that will challenge and stress your rules there, so you have to all be on the same page to do it correctly. I do think the safeties are burdened a little bit more than the corners by the scheme. It's a little more as asked of them, but you're you're still ultimately needing all four of those guys to do their job, of course, and the real challenges what happens when the guy I have initially goes inside. If I'm the cornerback and my guy runs a route but disappears inside, who's coming at me from the outside, and how do we pass that off? That's the stuff that has to be developed with chemistry and and awareness and field vision, and it's hard to ask rookies to do that. The other thing is those those techniques. When a guy is in your area and in your one fourth of the field, you're basically playing man demand. You're a Manda Man defender. So these rookies are stepping into a situation now Jeff Gladney, who might become their slock guy at some point, but Camera Danceler their third round rookie. They're gonna be forced to play Manda Man at a high level Manda Man technique, and they're also gonna have to read and react out of zone match principles at the same time much of the snaps. That's a lot to ask of those guys. The saving grace is that the underneath defenders in this scheme Gary mainly Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr as well, but mainly Eric Kendricks, They're about as good as they come. And underneath pass coverage, Yeah, I was gonna say, good pass rush, good h good linebackers, good safeties. Takes a takes a lot of the pressure off the cornerbacks there. I guess the other thing is that, I mean the Vikings cornerback play wasn't particularly good a year ago anyway. Yeah, you're getting rid of Xavier Rhodes maybe knew the scheme better than the rookie will although there I think there were cases where you wondered that at times last Roach did not have a good season, Trey Wayne's throw the scheme better. If the Vikings loved the Rhodes or Waynes or McKenzie, Alexander, those guys would all still be here. So that's the important thing to remember, is the reason they're replacing guys is because they felt that they had to get better at that spot offensive side of the ball. Yeah, I know we're getting ahead of ourselves by probably a year at this point. But Dalvin Cook, how valuable is he to this offense? Is he in a way replaceable if they if they have to lean on Alexander Madison. I mean, look, let's just point out the fact that Dalmond Cook has missed time uh so far over his career. Probably, Uh, they can expect him to miss a litle more time this year. Uh. Are are they okay without him? Do they have to change anything without him? Um? No, I don't think so. He's a good player. I mean he he looks like an agility runner because he's fast and he has these quick, choppy steps, but his contact balance is also very good. He breaks a lot of tackles within the context of the run, So you don't just find another guy who can do that very readily. Having said that's it still starts with the blocking in that scheme, the outside zone scheme. That's what it's all about. So they can continue to play the way they've always played without Dalvin Cook. Uh, they just might not be quite as effective there. Once you hand the ball to the guy and then we're discussing the value of that and what does that mean exactly? But you and I have talked a lot Grey. We we often feel the value of a player really is if you take him off the field, does it impact the way you have to approach the game, And for Minnesota, the answer with Dalvin Cook is no. And and of course Kevin Stefanski out Gary Kubiak in this year. Do you expect any big changes with his offense here? It'll still start with the run game, which I think is the way you have to play with Kirk Cousins. Cousins is can be highly effective and play at a very high level when that run games, driving with the passing game, so it's play action. It's all the things we talked about all the time. The one difference with Kubiak and Stefanski it was Stefanski is so flexible that it's hard to know if his play calling last year was about his own philosophy or about appeasing and not appeasing, but playing to what's your head coach who was a defensive minded guy playing to what he wants to do, which is what a good coordinator does. Um Kubiak will probably not be given as narrow of a path and play calling as Stefanski was. I'm sure Zimmer trust Kubiak just because their same generation. Kubyac to Super Bowl winning head coach in his past, so It'll be up to Kubyak to do what he wants to do. And I think one difference we might see these guys in football outsiders pointed this out. Kubyak on first and down is not quite as run oriented as people like like me would guess. People that know he's an outside his own coach play action game. We usually think run game first with those guys, and Kubiak is a little more willing to integrate his past game on early downs than what the Vikings were, what the Vikings did a year ago. And with that we move on to the Chicago Bears, last year's third place finisher in this division. Uh. It was year one for Chuck Begano, who replaced Vic Fangio as a defensive coordinator. Uh. You know this defense went from leading the league in takeaways too. Uh, they were down the middle of the pack. They were like twenty second with eighteen? Is that is that a matter of of the scheme? Were they doing something different schematically that would make you think, like, okay, that they're just gonna get fewer takeaways? Is it complete luck in this case? And uh, I I guess the even better question for you is what was different? About the defense last year. Well, the biggest thing that's different is Pregano believes in bringing extra guys in the pass rush more than Fangio does. Fangio would blitz a linebacker, but he'd dropped an edge defender or someone usually was the edge guy. He would drop that guy back into cover ridge. So you're still only rushing four. You're just it's called a simulated pressure when you do that, or some used to call it his own exchange. You're rushing four, but it's not quite the four you expected. Paganal's going to rush five. He is going to bring that extra guy. A lot of times when he did. He didn't do it every week, but there were games where he committed to that approach and a lot of times it worked. And the guy that was the blitzer for him was Buster Screen, who was very effective out of the slot, especially early in the season as a blitzer. Um they'll bring linebackers. Of course, you'll bring any of those second level type defenders, but that's the difference with Pagano. The other thing is is Fangio's system has more eyes on the quarterback. Naturally, there's two safeties back deep. They're kind of moving around in blurry ways. Some of the rules we talked about matchup zone is what the vikings are. That's very much what the Bears have been under Fangio, and it's very much what the what the Bears are now under Pagano. But the matchup rules can be a little bit different. Fangio will do some things backwards or flopped, and he'll play the coverage almost the opposite way that you would expect, and he'll put a lot of pressure on his safeties to to help with that, which is why Justin Simmons, by the way, has become so valuable in Denver. Now with Fangio there, um Pegana is gonna be a little more straightforward and some of their matchup zones, he's gonna trust his one on one coverage more so. The concern we had last year's is do they have corners who are good enough to play one on one outside. I think Kendall Fuller is an easy Yes, he's more of his own corner than man corner, but he's a top ten player at his position, so he's fine. You can match him up. Prince of Mukamara was the concern, and he's not here anymore so Obviously they've made an adjustment right there. And now it's Jalen Johnson, the second round pick, and we'll see what he can do. All right. Offensively, Look, we know they have huge question marks at quarterback. I guess my question is and and look, obviously Mr Dubinski struggled badly last year and and sort of earned his is negative headlines. But um, I mean the run game was non existent. They were they were bottom five in terms of yards per carry um. When you look at this offense, I mean, is there any way you can sort of establish a run first, run heavy offense here or did they just not have the personnel capable of doing that. That's that's a tougher one because you know their offensive line. It's it's not a line that's just gonna plow you over on a regular basis. It's it's it's it's an okay offensive line. So now, maybe you manufacture some stuff with your running game, but really the teams that that many learning game your scheme. I mean, but the teams that that do that, you know, we see the jet sweeps and all that. The Bears really don't do that as much as people would guess they do. Early in games, and so it feels their scripted players will have jet sweeps and misdirection and all the bells and whistles, and Matt Maggie obviously knows how to do those things. He came from Kansas City and they were very innovative there when he was with the Chiefs. But that's really in the big picture, that's not how the Bears play. And maybe that's a function of trying to make the quarterback more comfortable. I don't know the answer to that, but what you're asking, Gary, I feel like, is are they good enough to line up and just run the ball down your throat if they need to? Because if you're gonna try to manufacture a run game schematically and you're not doing it through jet sweeps and all that kind of stuff, then the other thing you'll be doing is having two backs in the backfield. You need two guys who can move the gaps or add blocking gaps after the snap. They don't play that style of football. They're not the Ravens or the Shanahan forty niners. They're mostly a one back offense. Now they'll go to tight ends and you can use that second tight end that way, but we'll we'll, you know, we'll see if they do. Who's the move tight end is what I'd want to know. Who who's the Nick Boyle guy that can go in motion and play north and south as well as that? I mean, it's cold comment, that kind of blocker. What I what I understood Cole comment their second round pick out a notre dame to be is kind of a version of Kyle Rudolph, a very traditional in line type of tight end. You could, uh, you can maybe use him in that role. To sixty two is this listed weight? Yeah? What's Nick Boyle's listed way for Baltimore? Not that I mean these listed weights? You know who knows that these guys really weigh this? But I bet boils not to sixty two to seventy. I'm wrong Nick Boyle does it, so Cole comment could be the move guy. Maybe boy Boyle weighs a lot more than I would have guess. I'm more impressed with Nick Boyle now than I was twenty seconds ago. He does not play like a two hundred and seventy pounder at all. I mean, cool commits, He's an athlete, he can move of he could maybe put him in that role. Because you're it would be so if you're gonna play like that, you have to have two tight ends on the field, because we're talking this guy is basically like the h back tight ends. They do have tight ends. They have Demetrius Hair, you know, but they have a lot. But who's the put guy that place. I mean, they have Demetrius Harris, who's a good quality tight end, and they have Jimmy Graham, who I think can still contribute and contribute at a high level of times. Even so, by my count, they have three tight ends, probably four with JP Holts who got on the field some last year. I know Jesper Horsted did as an undrafted rookie. But they had eight or ten or whatever it was at the draft, and so the narratives and now they have a ton of tight ends, Well, they got rid of some of those guys, and they're not gonna have eight or ten once the season starts. They're gonna have three, maybe four, and they're gonna play two of them at a time most of the time. Okay, that's no fun. Let's go onto the Lions, you know. To be perfectly honest, Gary, we're talking in circles a little bit about the bear because we don't know what they have at the quarterback, and that's the way this offense is looked. Yeah, I mean because you ask what their scheme is, and I give you all kinds of answers. I do the tight ends. What can they do that we don't know what the quarterback is and so their identity is unstable right now? Correct? Correct? What's your what's your gut feeling? Who's going to be competition? Yeah? Well is it who wins a competition or who ultimately plays the most games? Uh? Like who one starter? Yeah? Answer both of them? Ah. Stylistically Travisky If what I want to know is why he didn't use his legs more last year. Yeah, there was a specific reason for that. He had he had he had the shoulder injury early in the season, and that might have changed up some of their plans. I mean, look at they probably also were just hoping he would he would look as a passer. Uh, but that's the kind of passer he is, though, he's his value as a passer is a is an on the move thrower. His field vision out of the pocket. I thought he would look that way at North Carolina at times, not that the sample size was big enough to declare Mitch Trobinsky. The legs are part of the equation. That's why he was drafted in the first round. That's that's why you want him. So if you don't have his legs in the equation, then I think the guy's Nick Foles. If Trabinsky's legs are part of the equation, then we're back to talking through it and decide what Trabinsky can be. And I think you gotta be running read option type stuff with him, making the defense have to at least defend Trabinsky to help your running game, because it's not a running game. It's just gonna run over people by itself. And you've got to do bootlegs and rollouts and and and you do have to have those bells and whistles that we saw from Naggie a little bit early but not as much last year. If you if you're not going to play that way and you want to be more traditional than it's Nick Foles. Yeah, I mean Naggie was not there when they drafted Drabinsky, so it's it hasn't been a seamless Uh. Yeah, that's a fair point. Uh. Unification of coaching quarterback here. Uh, let's go to the Lions. Uh, the NFC North champion Detroit Lions. So Matthew Stafford first half of last season was one of the best quarterbacks in football, if not the best. What were the differences in the offense he ran for Darryl Bevil as opposed to what he had run all those years for Jim Bob Cooter. Well, the very obvious one was the deep balls. He was basically the They threw deep more than any team in the NFL under Darryl Bevil last year, and before that under Jim Bob Cooter, they didn't. They were They were much more of a volume, quick strike type of offense. So Stafford is built to throw the ball deep. He has that toughness in the pocket, The arm is is outstanding, and he puts it together and he can attack any part to the field. And I think there's a fearlessness to some of his decision making. In fact, we know there is because remember you almost forget about this. Remember early in his career the issue was who can rain them in? He was. He was an aggressive quarterback like that. Um. Jim Bob Cooter, to his credit, tweaked this system in a way that did rain Matthew Stafford and Stafford evolved in mature into a higher level QB and now that's what Darryl Bevil has inherited, and so that's a big part of it. Um The Lions did a lot of what the Rams will do in terms of formationing. There was a lot of minus splits last season where everybody's lined up tight inside. I love that style applying. It's a great way to play that puts a lot of stress on defenses, especially if defenses want to go man to man. Um We just talked about those rules and matchup zones and how everybody has to read it the same way. It's much harder to read two receivers as matchup zone defenders if those two receivers are right next to each other, because they could both go in either way, so one could come the other and vice versa. It's easier to tell what they're doing if they're spread out. So I like the offense that they run with Bebel. Conceptually, the two things they need to do, and it's been true for twenty something years now. They have to run the ball better, and that's part of the reason they hired Bebel and I don't know why t J. Hawkinson wasn't featured more last season in the passing game. That's I'd like to see that be adjusted, all right. Bullish on the offense, bullish as I am on the offense, I'm pretty bullish. Who's uh, you know the depth that wide receiver. You wonder who the number three guys if they're without one of their starters, Marvin Jones becomes unavailable or Danny Amndla goes down. Um. But yeah, I'm bullish on the offense. And I feel like I've been bullish on the offense for a while now. And part of it is because I'm bullish on Matthew Stafford because he's just the style of quarterback that I you know, it's who teaches you the game a little bit. And the people that I learned the game from originally was was the NFL films guy, so Ron Jaworski and Greg Cosell and those guys, and it was in the early twenty tens, and and their philosophy is is big strong pocket pastors. Their philosophy has evolved, and so is mine. But you know, there's a part of me it's always gonna love the big strong arm pocket passer, and Matthew Stafford is that style of quarterback. So I got the Stafford crushed still, even though I fully acknowledged Russell Wilson has surpassed him. Now, all right, I don't just feel like I'll shout that one from the mountaintops, even when even when Stafford wins MVP this year, Yeah, isn't it. That's gonna be one? Do I find cobout an outright say it the other way around? And and now Stafford's gonna win MVP, Like you just said, I didn't know he was winning m v P until a second ago. Yeah, I should have. I should have started the show with that instead of my usual ramblings. Uh So Matt Patricia's defense when he was in New England, they generated pressure despite the lack of Ben Pastor. I mean they had good they had good piece of Kyle van Noy uh types. I mean they had guys who could rush the Pastor, but they didn't have any You know, this wasn't Khalil Mack and J J. Watt line up. Uh. I don't know. It seems like similar talent in I mean, in some cases literally similar talent and tree flowers was there their big money investment last year. I mean, why is this, why is this not working? They their pass rush was just completely non existent last year. Yeah, and this year the guy they signed was Jamie Collins, another former Patriot to contribute. Tom Alright, let's so let's start on the back end. Because this was true in New England, it's true with the current Patriots as well. The philosophy is centered around man demand coverage with two free man defenders, so one safety back deep and then another one in the intermediate parts of the field. And that's what the system does really well. Belichick coaches it well. Patricia I think also coaches it well, as they'll take that second safety and place him in a spot where they feel that your routes are most likely to go. So instead of the safety lining up in a in a a standard position, they usually put him on the weak side and assume that you're gonna run some kind of crossing routes and so we're gonna double your crossing routes from the back side, and the manda man defenders all play to that. If you watch the Lions, those corners often are trailing or on the low hip of the receiver. They're guarding, they're they're kind of running tailgate in them almost not all the way, but that's they're playing to the angles of their help. So that's the philosophy. When you have that kind of scheme, for one, you know you're gonna get more coverage sacks, is the point. Not maybe might not be pure coverage sacks, but it starts with the coverage and then the pass rush comes in second. And you can tell that they understand that because what New England does and what Detroit they do with their pass rush, it's highly schemed and it's a lot of slower developing stunts. These pass rushers square up the locker in front of them, they take one or two steps in. They get on different levels where I've I take two steps in, the guy next to me rushing the pastor takes one step in, and then we criss cross and overlap and create lanes to go after the quarterback. Make the offensive line have to pass us off and adjust to us late. And it's very well schemed, and you have guys who are good technicians, it can look very good. That's why Kyle van Noy is a very effective player in this system. I don't know what his sack numbers are. I'm sure he's not getting double digits every year, but he fits the approach really well. Stylistically, they're hoping Jamie Collins can be that kind of guy for them, and they obviously feel tree Flowers is So that's the philosophy. The problem is you can't have nothing in the pass rushing and make it work. They has to get home and last year there wasn't and they didn't get home often enough. And then really the bigger problem those they weren't quite sound enough across the board and man coverage to play the way they wanted to play. Even though they've got safety help everywhere, you still need high level corners to do this. Their corners just weren't quite at that level. Lastly. They didn't perform consistently in that way. Yeah, Darius lay out, but Jeff Okuda in the number three overall pick in the draft. So, uh, we'll see, we'll see, we'll see how this goes. Uh, but man, I don't know. I was all I was all set for this team to win wild card spot last year, and uh there were three four and one when Stafford went down. But one of those losses was that uh sort of you know, questionably officiated game at lambeau Field on a Monday night. Uh, they had that when they lost to the Chiefs. It was not only Mahomes comeback, uh countering a Stafford comeback. It was a game in which carry On Johnson fumbled going into the end zone for what would have been a fourth quarter touchdown and uh or sorry, third quarter touchdown. But he not only fumbled on in the end zone. No one realized he fumbled until the shod Brelan picked up the ball five yards deep in the end zone and ran it back under five yards for a touchdown. And I mean that's a that's a game they should have won. Uh that was not. Now I'm just relitigating the Lions twenty nineteen season to explain why they should have gone sixteen to know, well, and they you know, they blew a lot of games late that they should have won. Two. They had leads, they couldn't hold onto the leads, which gets back a little bit to your running game. Not completely, but it gets you know a little bit to that. A lot of little important things that just all met in the wrong way for them, and they went three twelve and one I don't. I don't. They did not look like a three twelve and one team all season. They didn't necessarily look like a playoff team either, But they're not as bad. They're not bad like a three twelve and one suggest and I commend ownership and management for understanding that and sticking with this approach with Patricia Um because I think there's a lot of reason for optimism with this team. There's two other guys we ought to mention. Jeelani Tavai has a chance to be a very solid player for that. He fits exactly how they want to play stylistically, and he'll be that edge kind of linebacker times he can play off the ball. I think he'll be up more on the line of scrimmage ultimately, so with him and Jamie Collins that that changes a lot of what you do in base situations. There now your edge guys, depending how you line up. You know, you never quite know how teams are gonna line up anymore because of all the three receiver sets you get on first down. Um. The other guy who mentions Tracy Walker, who has the love the body type, and he actually I thought outplayed Travis Kelsey last year and he had Kelsey for much of that game against Kansas City. Walker needs to be more consistent, for sure, but he is. His ups are very high up. So there's two. And then Jared Davis is the last one. I talked about him. Every year he put on more weights. We'll see what that means. He's got to keep it on once the season starts. But what they figured out more importantly with Davis is he is he's better as a pass rusher than as a past defender. So they do these delay blitz is with him. And if you think about what we just said, they have these slower developing pass rushes. That's their style. The delay blitz is can be very effective. And Davis is so fast and sudden in his movement that he can get home and get into his blitz before the offensive line. It's a chance to recognize what's going on there. He'll wait for a second and a half. I mean he'll come almost to a standstill and wait, and then he hits the Jets. And he was a tremendous blitzer a lot of the time last season. So I said two guys, I think that's three. There's a lot of reason for optimism with this team. Now that's a that's a great role for Davis. I I you don't have to think the game as much in that role. I think Davis is more of an instinctive some guys, and it's it's not at all a commentary on their intelligence. It's just as their style of play and how their athleticism translates once the ball is snap. Some guys are better just playing and taking rather than reading and reacting and thinking the game. Through Damario Davis, who was the first team All Pro last year, he's probably another one of those guys in the Saints figured that out and now they use him similar to what we just described for Davis. You gotta fit your players strengths. The problem is uh and in this kind of scheme, you know, it's if Davis were playing in the Cult system, for example, where it's built on speed, that'd be an excellent fit. And this kind of scheme, where it isn't a little bit of a slower developing approach, defensively, keep it in front of you, play to your leverage, play to your help. That does demand a lot of think the game style of players, which is why the Patriots always had big guys instead of fast guys. So Davis is not an ideal scheme fit. But the Lions are smart coaches. That Patricia's a smart coach. You understands. You still got a very talented player here. Let's figure out what weekend two with them, because there aren't very many guys that can run like Jared Davis runs. Yeah, he's such an athlete. I thought he would always, uh, you know, at some point he'd figure out in coverage and and he'd be all right there, and he just never looked. He's just he's he's better. He's he's better proactive than reactive. They do need to find a cover Yes, I agree, that's well said. They do need to find a cover guy and linebacker because one other problem they have they didn't have the cover linebacker and there were times where Christian Jones got cast into that position and that was every offensive favorite day. Christian Jones is a fine player, but teams were going after him with vertical routes from their running backs weekend and week out, so they do at some point you have to find someone who can cover running backs man demand, and that becomes a little bit of an issue on on first and second down more than third down. Yeah, I think the Lions are gonna be our new Bills. That's gonna be the team we're gonna talk about forty five minutes every show this year. Well, I just did that. I mean, I'm the one that just turned it on right there. That's all right. I I can I can share, I can share the time. Just gonna be a Lion slash Bills podcast is where what we're doing on forward well and uh and Ralph Wilson's family, I'm sure would love that. That's uh. Let's go to the projections for the NFC North. You gotta go first, though, Why do I have to go first? I just want to say something different than you. Okay, um, so give me making you're thinking I'm making a joke here. I'm going one Lions, yeah too, Yeah, to Packers, three Vikings, four Bears, and all of them are nine and seven to seven and nine. I'll go I'm going one Packers. I've come around on the Packers. I'm I'm one other thing about the Packers, which we didn't get into. And I know you don't like delving too deep into red zone stuff, but they were zone. Make your point. I'm gonna i gotta zone and then you gotta then you gotta defend yourself because I just offended or honor on the red zone stuff. But uh, it is very tough to consistently be good in the red zone. It's small sample sizes. Uh. They were top five red zone offense and red zone defense last year in terms of points per game. I believe they are actually outgained on the season overall, which again not not a huge deal. But uh, I'm more worried. I don't think that red zone performance can can be duplicated again. And you know, if if you take that away, uh, you're probably looking at a team that was more like a ten or eleven win team a year ago. Okay, that's very fair, um, to make your point. By the way, the Steelers were number one in the red zone. Excuse me in twenty nineteen. Let me back that up. Their offense was number one ten and they went to number thirty two and twenty nineteen they also lost their quarterback. I know, I'm just saying, that's come on, that's that's the most extreme stat that can be offered to support your point. True what you want, Well, I've you're gonna be upset that I that I said, you don't like breaking down red zone stuff. Well, I do think it. I agree with you, you know, coaches, I I try. I'm afraid to say it, to be honest, because coaches talking about red zone all the time out to win in the red zone. Um but I do. I don't think it translates from year to year as much. And I did have so Cody. I had Cody Schwartz, one of our guys who was in on that film session I was promoting at the front of the show. I had him look into all the red zone stuff to see how it translates to winning and losing. And the long story short, it is not at all like, uh, you know, if you're great in the red zone, you are not at all guaranteed to be a winning team, but it's a much greater chance that you will be. So there is red zone efficiency. There's definitely a correlation to winning. But the one that has slightly more correlation, which I was that's why I wanted Cody to do this study, is red zone frequency. So, in other words, getting to the red own often, which if you think about that makes all the sense in the world. Um, So, red zone efficiency does matter for wins. And losses. Of course, red zone frequency matters just a tiny bit more. I would say both of them mattered more than I would have guessed before I had Cody do the study. Okay, all right, yeah there was a boy, there was I pulled this. Let me just bring up. Let me see if I can find the Saints. The Saints had some ridiculous thing where they were like first, then second, then twenty nine, the third then seven. Uh, and they were all Drew Breesy years. Um uh, Seahawks five year run from eighteen, they were in red zone offense seventh and sixteenth and twenty six, then twelve and sixteen. It's just it's it's all over the place. So uh, it is very difficult to duplicate a year in year out. And um that's That's kind of the point I was making with the Packers. Who and now I'm just contradicting myself because I also just picked the Packers to run away with the NFC North. Where did Green Bay? I you said it, but for some reason I must not have been allowing to what I was thinking about. I guess I wasn't listening. But where did they rank in the red zone? Exactly? So they were. They were top five on both sides of the ball, So they were they were top five offense, top five defense, and you know the same goes for defense. It's it's just uh uh, it's difficult to duplicate that year in and year out. So they were they were net red zone if you want to call it that. It's not really net but sort of combined offense defense red zone. The Packers were by far number one last year, which again it's gonna be difficult to do that again. Well, so two things on that. One is Aaron Rodgers has a tremendous red zone QB and his number one receiver has often led the league in touchdowns because of that. Jordy Nelson used to have a bunch of Davante Adams gets a bunch of He's very good in the red zone. That ability to extend plays and then sling the ball through tight windows and the type of field vision he has is conducive to that. You think Russell Wilson would be great in the red zone for similar reasons, but Wilson's a little bit of a different style of thrower than Robert. Wilson's beauty comes on vertical throws more than than zipping it through tight windows right in front of him, and obviously you don't have vertical throws in the red zone. Um Green Bay's defense. I hated watching their red zone defense because what they would do is drop eight into coverage and play this kind of cover three slash man to man look and I can never figure out what the coverage is, and it's it doesn't make a huge difference. The matchups are the same, except that does kind of make a difference because the quarterback and everybody else they need to know what the coverage is. So I'm not surprised there are a top five red zone defense because they do some stuff in the red zone that they don't do another spots on the field. And they did it very very well last year. Do you know who was by far the And yes, the Steelers were the worst offense. And by the way, I shouldn't mention, I'm going by points per red zone possession as opposed to like touchdown percentage of that because it makes it different. Did I like that you turn it over? Yeah? That makes that's you know that? Why doesn't that's And I had not thought of that was ranked by a touchdown frequency, as I understand it. Yeah, it tells you a little more about the offense, just purely the offense if if you're talking about, you know, did they score a touchdown or not? Because if the kicker comes in and misses, uh, you know that that's a that's a whole other deal. But I always go by points per possession and I'm sort of trying to figure out who maybe who maybe he's going to have a more difficult time sustaining their their success there. But do you know who was hold on? Hold on? I have now decided I don't like the stat quite as much because I just realized that the kicker misses, that punishes the offense. Yes, but the offense didn't miss to kick. The kicker miss to kick. So yeah, I mean, and obviously you don't have a ton of missfield goals from from that close. You know that it's it's basically thirty seven yards and in at that point. But of so, but it's it's basically your stat takes away the turnovers, but then also waits the touchdowns. Do they get seven do they count as seven or six points for a touchdown? That's the question, um, And by the way, it's important question it's it's not my stat I just I pull it from somewhere else. I pull it from stats inc. And And just drop it into a spreadsheet. So, um that that is a that is a legitimate question. I'll have to check early next season and see if they're uh including the p E T slash two point conversions. But uh, my, my question to you, my trivia question, do you know who is by far, by far, the worst combined offense defense red zone performance in all right, give me a second here, let me I'm gonna uh and it's not Pittsburgh was the worst offensively, but they were they were above average defensively, so they were twenty five so by far the worst red zone offense and defense in twenty nineteen. Um, I feel like i'd just be guessing give me this and this is not great podcast. I understand that. Now. It's okay. Miami, they were down there for most of the year, but they made a comeback, they got up to it was and I don't think you'll guess it because I I don't know why this team was so bad. But the Raiders, by by again a wide margin, were the worst red zone offense plus defense performance last year. Yeah, they were. They did have a couple of turnovers in the red zone. I remember they had a bad one at Kansas City where they threw a fade in Tyrolle Williams didn't run the route Car expected or something in Car didn't love that. I mean, you know, that doesn't shock me as much as you would, as much as I would have guessed. Okay, yeah, they were twenty six in offense and they were oh boy, where are they in defense? Thirty one in defense? So yeah, well, you know, so we talked about what makes Aaron Rodgers great in the red zone and the gun slinger mentality play extending tight window thrower, and people who follow the NFL closely know that that Derek Carr gets the ball out quicker than just about any QB in the NFL, and he throws shorter than most people, which is, you know, he's not that he's not a gun slinging, tight window thrower stylistically, although I've seen Car makes some tremendous red zone throws before cars very good on the steam balls in the red area. Those steam balls are the only balls you throw vertically that's still come out quickly if you think about it, all right, so we might have we might have figured out why the Raiders are no good in the red zone last year. Uh. And just just to recap real quick, because we started these projections about twenty months ago. Uh Andy went Lions, Packers, I went Packers, Lions, and uh we both went Vikings and then Bears to finish up this this division. And uh they all o nine and seven, eight and eight or seven and nine of m v P. I I ready picked Stafford as my m VP. I picked them second in now Stafford's winning m VP. Okay, um, I I don't know. I guess do I go Rogers? And since you took Stafford, do you think Rogers is uh is m v P uh caliber at this point in his career, not if I'm picking them to go nine and seven? But um, you know, I'll be honest. I like this m VP discussion more for discussion going over the guys that could maybe Like the Mitch Morse answer a few weeks ago on m v P, to me, was the most interesting part of this whole segment yell year long, because otherwise we're just guessing which quarterback is going to have the biggest numbers. Okay, who do who do you have then, who's your Mitch Morse of the NFC North. Um, well, I'm sure this is happening because my mind just went to centers, so it's not necessarily answer my question. And I think after going back through my Vikings notes, Garrett Bradberry has a chance to be viewed as a top five center very soon. Okay, it's a good one. He's not going to get the attention he you know, it's not gonna He's not gonna get him v P. But Mitch Morse wouldn't either, of course. But um see, I think it's more interesting to make a point about Gary Bradberry's were always you used to get stronger in a phone booth. But he is phenomenal out in space and on the move, which is what they knew. That's why they drafted him first round for his own scheme. They were not the only team that wanted him in the first round that runs his own offense. So you know, let's use this time to make mention of Garrett Bradberry instead defensive player of the Year besides Khalil Mack anyone. Um, I mean, if it was a Darius Smith, he did get snubbed. I don't love the putting the snub jersey on under your regular jersey and flashing it on camera. Very often. It's fine once or twice, I guess, but his shirt that he sort showed that night. Who were they playing? I forget who they were playing, but he helped. Remember he got the sack or something the Vikings game. Um, but normally I don't love that stuff, but he was so right and correct with it that I tipped my cap so za. Darius Smith deserves to be in the conversation. He didn't. I don't think he even made the Pro Bowl last year? Did he? He certainly didn't get all Pro and he deserved. He deserved all the consideration he was in that he was in that discussion. Uh he uh, he must have made the Pro Bowl? Right, Yeah, he made the Pro Bowl? Did he actually make it? Or did like eleven guys decided to stay home and then he made it? Isn't that how they always do it? You know? So my mind. It blows my mind when you see contracts with incentives tied to the Pro Bowl, because I always want to know which Pro Bowl. There's like eight of them anymore, there's eight Pro Bowl teams the first one they announced, the one they announced and they all the Super Bowl guys leave, and then the one they announced when everybody else drops out. Three he he was, um, he was added to the roster. Yeah, well that's that's that's not a pro bowler. Then they should just they should just name like a hundred fifty pro bowlers and just not pro bowlers anymore. Announced the guys who don't don't have a chance to be. That would be a great announcement. Just here here the twelve worst players in the NFL this year. Do not honor them in any way. Za Darius Smith is in the conversation. Mac obviously is the front runner. MC needs to play better. He did not have his best season last season, and he has said that, but he was quiet for long stretches of times. Now that's by his standards, that's not by regular players standards. Um, Jerry Alexander is gonna be worth considering too. Okay, I like that, Jarry Alexander. One. Uh, we still have a lot of work to do, not in this show, because this has gone on for far too long long. We're okay, it was it was no a f C E S show. But yeah, our for this one. Uh. We have the last Monday show before the season starts coming up next week, and then we'll we'll uh preview that opener and we will also have some talk. I don't know, I'll make Andy pick a super Bowl winner or something like that. Maybe we'll just pick the Maybe we'll just pick a Lion's bills super Bowl to justify the the the split in these uh in these outlines coming up this season, I hadn't even thought about super Bowl. That's the first I've thought about picking a super Bowl winner right there. I had forgotten about That's something that you talk about. All Right, We'll start at lines Bills and then work backwards. See if you can find a reason it won't be aligned to build Super Bowl in Tampa. Alright, Andy, that will do it for now. Okay, Thanks Gary. The mm QB Monday Morning NFL Podcast is me Gary Grantlin Special Thanks to Andy but Ohit for joining me this week. We are produced by Shelby Royson, SI's executive producer or podcast of Scott Rody. Ben Eagle is director of Editorial Projects and product Mark Ravick is Emeritus editor of the MMQB and Even Know It is the founder of the mm qb NFL podcast. Keep up with our entire line of the podcast five days a week by subscribing to the mmqb NFL Podcast for free on Apple Podcasts and Why Are There. Please do us a favor and leave a rating M review. It really does help other people find the show, which is also available on Spotify, Radio dot com, Stitcher, s I dot com, and wherever else you listen to podcasts.