Welcome everyone to the mm QB Gambling Podcast. Title games on the docket for this Sunday. Only three NFL games left for the season, the two on Sunday and then the Super Bowl. We will break down both games from a betting perspective. And when I say me, I mean myself Jimmy Trained to my co host Mitch Golditch Gary Grambling as always taking you through and uh we'll check in now with Gary and Mitch on their best bets. Last week. I think I was one and two. I know I won the one game I like, which was the Packers and uh, and then whatever else I gave you, I guess was wrong. What about you, guys, Gary, how do you do? Uh? Not good? I only bet too. I lost in both. And look, the one good bet last week was the Packers and I did you guys both have that? I did? Okay? Yeah, kudos to both of you. That was the one that came in. That was it was just a weird we I mean, the weather kind of ruined, uh Ravens bills the under. I mean everyone should about the under once they saw the wind blow in the way it was on Saturday night. Uh, that was my loss. Had the over in that one. Yeah, I mean, and other than that, I mean, look, the Saints and Bucks played again this week. I would take the Saints. I mean it. I don't know what happened to Drew Brees. It was a complete melt down. He he just played like he was eighty seven years old, and that's that's the way it goes. So. Um but even though I don't you feel I felt like they lost that game because of Jared Cooked though I mean they're up seven and driving. That doesn't think that doesn't help that the two quarterbacks and uh, I've had this, I've had this argument people, Uh just seemingly nonstops since the games played. Tom Brady's an offense that provides like no answers for him. It's just a crappy offense and they're gonna have weeks like that where they just can't get anything going. Drew Brees is in an offense where he has opportunities, and he just missed every single one in that game. So even the Jared Cooks off it and yes, Jerry Cook was absolutely responsible for two of the four turnovers, but um, he was terrible. Otherwise, I mean, they should have they should have been up three touchdowns in the third quarter instead of about like the timing of the turnover that that fumble there where they were driving and it was a dagger too many cooks. Well, I'm just sitting here patiently listening to you talk about what a tough week it was. I was. I stayed away from the totals I had. I was four and oh straight up and four no against the spread. I had a I felt good about every game. Uh sorry if you didn't see the Tom Brady out playing Drew Brees. If they played again next week, I would pick the Bucks again, and I think there's a good chance I'd be right again. I gotta set up that exhibition then the Bucks. They don't have anything to do this week. They could just play the Saints again. Um so I best bet three of the games on this podcast. So a nice little three and o nice week for me, very nice, very nice. Only two games this week. It starts Sunday at three oh five with the Buccaneers and Packers. Great matchup that everyone is anticipating because of the quarterbacks. The Packers at home three and a half point favorites against the Bucks. The total year is fifty one and a half, Mitch. Yeah, so I feel pretty good about going with green Bay here. Um, obviously i'd feel better if the line was under a field goal than three and a half. Um. But I've been saying, I think every week on this podcast for months now that I think Green Bay is the best team in the NFC. And I watched both of those games last week. I didn't really see anything that would cost me to change my mind. Um, the Packers have a great offense. Obviously, everyone knows how good Rogers was this year. I also think they have a very underrated defense. And you know, again, I think a lot of people are going to talk about the thirty eight to ten game. Um, you know, I'll say similar to what I said about Buck Saints earlier in the season this time last week, which is it. It It was a long time ago, And you know, I I throw it out a little bit. I mean, you can't throw it out completely. But I'm not getting too hung up on the final score. I think sometimes people see a blowout like that and they say, you know, they they you know, how could they possibly beat them? They're not gonna swing it thirty points from the last matchup. But you know, I don't worry too much, Like sometimes the game just gets away from you. And you know it was a bad loss, but thirty eight to tend whatever. Looking back at that game, remember there was a pick six and then there was another interception that they returned all the way to the two. So, um, you know, sometimes a final score can be a little misleading. I mean, obviously Tampa played them, but they got out to a big lead and then they ran the ball a lot. Um. It wasn't like one of those games where Brady put up huge numbers like we saw later in the season. Um, So you know, the game was a little bit flukyer it could have easily been a little closer. Um. Looking at the weather, I think that's gonna be a big storyline in both of these games this weekend. And I'm seeing twenty nine degrees not much wind. You know, that's not like freezing, that's not Uh. They're not gonna be showing Tom Coughlin's cheeks during the game as a measure of how cold it is. Um. But you know, and that is still pretty cold. It's still Green Bay in January. UM, And you know, I don't want to overseate it too much, but I think it is a thing, and you know, it's just interesting seeing Brad. I mean, we've talked for years about old qbs in the cold weather late in the year, and I think that's the thing people have talked about with even with Brady in the past, even him being on New England and playing in that kind of environment. You know, I picked the Titans to beat the Patriots last year outright in the divisional round, and part of it was that, uh, you know, what I had seen from Tom Brady and and you know now this year he looks a lot better. Um. But really, a lot of the games they've played, especially in the stretch lately, they've been either in Tampa or they've been in domes, And you know, I want to give Brady credit. He's had a very good season. The offense has been good. But I do trust the Packers and Aaron Rodgers a little bit more in that kind of weather. I think they've you know, Brady's played in a million cold weather games. I'm not trying to put it all on him, but I think the Packers team this year has done it more. They did have that game in the snow against the Titans when they were great. They've had other games this season. UM, so you know, I think that's not like the deciding factor for me, but I leaned there a little bit. And again, you know, I just like the Packers. It feels like their whole season has been building to this. Um. You know you can say that about the Bucks and Brady too, but you know the Packers the way they got blown out last year in the NFC title Game and they have come back thirteen and three again this season, and it just feels like they've built to this point that they're going to be the NFC team in the Super Bowl. I'm looking at the spread, it's three and a half points. I'm just trusting in Aaron Rodgers and the team that I think is better, and so I'm gonna lean Packers to cover. Yeah, I'm I'm with Mitch on this one. And by the way, I did notice that you let off the show with Mitch for the first time ever and and deservedly, Mitch. Mitch is on fire right now. So I will tell you I had more notes on the second game because I had a feeling I thought he was gonna be coming to me first. I was. I was also surprised, but don't worry. I've got plenty of the the same about It's not like the first spot gets more time. I mean, whoever, you know, when you go, you go. I mean just but but oftentimes I can say I agree with Gary and also, you know, anyway you get something exactly, exactly exactly. I I agree with my colleague Mitch on this one. I really I thought the Packers would be given five five and a half in this one. I think this is a bit of an overreaction to the first matchup. And like Mitch said, pick six early another for all intensive purposes, pick six in the first quarter. It was a it was a a strange game. It's not kind of game you're gonna get from Aaron Rodgers twice. UM I was looking at for anyone who's into the h Lambeau Field playoff. Uh stats here Aaron Rodgers four two and one against the spread in playoff games at Lambeau. UM I was interested in this total. I think that total seems a little bit high, and I do want to go under with it, especially because as I mentioned earlier, UH, I think this Bucks offense is just sort of a I don't know, archaic, crappy offense. But UH, they have. Packers are going over their last three playoff games in Lambeo. Uh and weirdly, the the last three totals score totals. So I don't know. I mean, that doesn't make up my mind one way or another, but I found that very oddly consistent. Yeah, you know, this is a headheard thing for me. My heart. I want to pick the Bucks because I want to see Tom Brady went another Super Bowl, even though I think I said I was rooting for the Bills, but the Brady thing, it really got to me last week with him and breeze my head. Though, Um, I like the Packers too. I don't have a problem with the line. I think three and a half is fair. Um. You know, listen, you can break down xs and ohs and and stats and all this stuff, but you know, sometimes it's just someone's year, and it just this has the vibe that it's Aaron Rodgers year, that he's played the best out of anyone in the league from start to finish. Um, the Packers of played well, you know last year, if you remember, the Packers had a great regular season record, and I thought they were a terrible team. I wasn't surprised at all that they got blown out in the playoffs. Totally different team, totally different year. This year for them, they've been consistent, they've played better than anyone. Um, just seems like it's the package. You you know, they get that first home game in the title game for Aaron Rodgers. Davn hasn't played in an NFC title game at home in his career. I hate picking against Tom Brady. If you look back, I've probably never done it on this I don't pick against Brady. Um, but it's hard for me to see the Packers losing this game. It really is one one week away from the Super well two weeks away, but one game away from the Super Bowl. Uh. I like Green Bay minus the three and a half. I think though, where I'll disagree with Gary Little. I think I do like the over though the listen what what you say is correct. But it just seems like with these two teams, anytime you look up, the score is high. The playing to you. And I agree with Mitch about one thing too. I throw out the two previous the one game from the regular season. I don't think it's gonna mean anything on Sunday at three o'clock. Um, you know, four thirty to twenty three. I see something like that. Um for the Packers here, there's just there's no answers for Davante Adams, you know, Bucks a little bit banged up with Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones obviously. Uh, Leonard Fournette has not had like a big playoff fumble yet this year. You'll probably see that on Sunday. I would imagine, Um, so as much as I hate picking against Brady, I don't like to do it, and I want to see him win. I would Uh, I would go Green Bay here minus the three and a half. Mitch, you didn't say anything about the total. You want to throw any thoughts out on the total here? On this one, it's only games. I go back and forth, you know, I was. I'm with the of of the the two games, the two sides, the two totals. The total in this game is the one I have the worst feel on. Um, you know, And I just think part of that is going to be the weather. Um. And you know we saw the the impact of wind, uh, you know in the especially in the Ravens Bill's game last week. Justin Tucker of all people is missing kicks and you know it wouldn't surprise me at all, um to you know, to see uh windy cold weather game and miss kicks and who knows what I mean, It's interesting hearing Gary mentioned the Packers hitting the over. I have kind of a thing that I tweet out every year when Green Bay loses the how many points the Packers defense allowed in every Aaron Rodgers career playoff loss. And the numbers are so high, um, And I think that's part of the reason why the Packers keep it. If if you look at it, it's like there's like fifty one that Carlos Dance became a million years ago, and then it's like thirty five, thirty one, and like we saw in the Niners game last year. Um. And you know, I think a lot of the time it's because of their defense that they've been in some of these high scoring games. And I think the defense is better. And I just don't think it has gotten enough attention this year because everyone wants to talk about Aaron Rodgers winning the m v PA. But it wouldn't surprise me to see them hold the bucks into the twenties. And you know, if the game's in the load of mid twenties, I could see the under. I don't want to actually bet on that and then watch you know, Rogers and Brady combined for seven touchdowns and make me look very stupid. But if you made me pick one or the other, I would lean under. Alright, second game, sixt CBS and obviously this you know we're taping this late Thursday afternoon. The status of Patrick Mahomes is a huge factor in all this. I mean, listen, he's gonna play. I think if you if you don't think he's playing, Um, you don't know how football works. It's a matter of how healthy is he. But the Chiefs at home giving three points to the Bills, and the total here is uh fifty four points. Gary, Yeah, I uh, look at the side is tough. I would lean Chiefs here in part because I just Chiefs the full strength, and that means Patrick Mahomes, I don't know, only given a field goal at home to anyone, no matter how well the Bills have played. That's uh, that's a bit much. I will throw out the one one trend I noticed Bills are eight and one against it spread this year when the line is plus three or minus three either way, So that these sort of coin flip type games. The Bills have fared very well in UH. I like the total, I like the under again we are we are taping well before Sunday evening. The forecast looks like rain and a little bit of wind. It just looks like it. It might be a kind of a mess here. Um. I was prepared if it was gonna be sort of normal conditions, I was prepared to probably lean over on this one. UH. When these teams met back in October on they played that game on like a Friday morning or something, can't remember Monday. We all woke up one day and we're like, oh, Bills are playing the Chiefs. Uh. The Bills strategy in that game, and I think I saw I. I want to say it was. Stephen Ruiz at USA today had the stat that the Bills didn't blitz once in that game. They went an entire game without blitzing once, with his mind blowing in in UH in this day and age. So basically, the strategy that game was, we're gonna play four down linemen, we're gonna play seven guys with their heels on the goal line, and we're gonna not let Patrick Mahomes show over our head. And then she said, Okay, we're just gonna run the ball for twelve yards on every play, which is how it happened. And Josh Allen didn't get men shots in that game. And again a rainy, windy, crappy day in western New York that day. So I will lean under because of the weather conditions here if it looks like it's gonna uh kind of clear up a little bit, maybe look nice. And and I am also working under the assumption that Mahomes will be in the lineup. I would probably reverse it to over. But um, let's go under. Let me let me not be wishy washy. Let me just say definitively under fifty four. The interesting thing about Mahomes is, you know, obviously the concussion is issue from last week, but he's got this toe issue that a lot of people say have been a problem. So even if he's playing, listen, I think there's he's playing. There's no way he's not going to play. But I think he's going to be far from a hundred percent, which is gonna be interesting to see, how I mean. Listen, the Chiefs, as we have talked about, they don't they haven't covered a spread. I think since September basically, so indicated. But they win every game, so this will probably like seven Chiefs win whether they will win and not cover, but um, the ma homes that well, I would love to know. I would love to know how much money betters have lost this season on the Chiefs. I mean, they for the last two months of the season, and they were a team that and they're you know, the biggest public team out there, so I wish I could find that's that. But Chief's Chiefs are gonna be up four and they're gonna take a safety on the last player game. That's how it works. Win every game, but never cover, Mitch, will they cover the three? I'm picking them to um, you know, and and yeah, you hit a bunch of my talking points. You know. I'm like this when I can't get all worked up about if a team is gonna win by one point or two points. It's you know, picking games is hard enough. So you know a lot of times for me, if I feel good about a team winning and the spreads only three points, I'm just gonna take them. Um. I think that was that that happened earlier in this season, right, let me like last week, no I'm trying to think because Tampa was an underdog anyway, never mind all things to say, I don't live my life walking around worrying about a team only winning a game by one or two points. That's that's uh, that's a little too much anxiety, I think. Um, But you know, it's just it's so interesting to me looking at the narrative around these teams and how we think about playoff teams every year. Because you know, we've talked that Bills have not looked great the last two weeks. Um. You know, we talked about this that on this podcast last week, about them the week before where they basically got outplayed by the Colts for a lot of that game, and then against the Ravens they only scored seventeen points, and remember seven was a hundred yard pick six, So the offense scored tend on. The defense was good shutting down Lamar Jackson. But they haven't looked like they did late in the regular season when they're peaking, and week seventeen some people are putting them number one of the power rankings and Jimmy's picking them to win the Super Bowl. They just haven't looked that good the last two weeks. And you know, it's funny because there's always this kind of like roor shock test where you can read into that whatever you want. Like if you already love the team, it's very easy to say, oh, they're finding ways to win. And that's the mark of a good team is that they can win ugly. And you know, plenty of teams go to the Super Bowl and they get credit for winning ugly. Um. You know the Chiefs last year, they kept falling behind and then they would flip the switch and uh, come back and win. And you know, if they had lost to the Niners in the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people would say, oh, you see, you know this was them all playoffs, you can't you gotta play sixty minutes. It was bound to catch up to them. Um. But instead they had another double digit come back in the Super Bowl and ever said, oh, the Chiefs are the best team and they could just turn it on and win. So you know, it's like if the Bills win the Super Bowl, which you know, sure they could still do, then everyone's gonna give him credit and say that they did a great job winning ugly. And if they lose and they look bad, then people are gonna say, oh, they peaked too early and and they weren't as good as we thought they were. So all that to say, it's a little bit hard to read too much into the storylines, and so I'm just I'm taking a step back. The Chiefs, I think are the better team. I felt that all year. I felt that last week even just watching them, you know, seeing uh, with the expanded playoffs and you see six of the teams win in the first round and then move on to the second. You know, it really felt like we hadn't seen the Chiefs play in a while. And so we watch you know, all the teams again, and you see the Chiefs when they're clicking and looking good, and it's just like obvious to me that they're the best team. Um, you're right, you know, we're all assuming that Mahomes is going to be back. Um he's now gotten two full days of practice it or maybe limited, but anyway, he's on the field, and so if it's a concussion protocol, you assume if he's out there and practicing, Um, barring a setback, he should be good to go. So I'm just gonna stick with I think they're better. It's only three points. We've talked about it all year that they have not been covering seven and ten point spreads. I did best bet the Browns last week and they covered UM, so I like them and and I'm with Gary who started to be wishy washy and then got a little more definitive. But um, I also I I lean towards the under. UM. Fifty four just feels a little bit high. You know, these are recent trends, and read into it howver much you want. But Buffalo is the two playoff games four and seventeen three the Chiefs last week two the regular season was under the number. Um, you know, and we talked about the potential for weather and like rain just doesn't seem great. It looks like it's gonna be forty five degrees as the current forecast, but it's gonna be you know, dark and raining, and so it's gonna like feel cold. Um. You know, it's not like a Lambo game or you know, snowbawl or something like that. It's not Chicago or Green Bay, but you know it's still gonna be a cold day out there. I think night actually or evening if you prefer. Um. So, you know, looking at the line doesn't even hit the over. Um, you know, I don't think that we're gonna get a shootout with both of these teams in the thirties the way we may have expected, or what we'd see if if this game was played in September. So I I feel pretty good. I feel better about this game than the other one. But I like the Chiefs and I like the under Yeah, this game for me similar to the other game. I want to pick the Bills. I'm going to pick the Chiefs. Um. You know. I've talked, you know, endlessly in the pod about the Chiefs and never covering, but they have won every one of those games, and sometimes you just know how to win and and they've got that. I like the coaching advantage here with Andy Reid. We saw last week what good head coaching can do with his fourth and one throw. You're at you're at home lane, just a field goal. Um. You know my thing about Mitch hit it. I don't love the way the Bills played the last two weeks. I was on their bandwagon. I didn't love what I saw both weeks. I think, listen, you gotta give credit for stopping Lamar Jackson. But I don't think Lamar Jackson is nearly as good as everyone else. I'll say this, even if Mahomes let's say, plays and he's combined concussion, concussion and tow let's say seventy percent, Mahomes, in my opinion, is still so much better than Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson. So I can't see the Chiefs, uh, you know, unless Mahomes is just completely immobile from the toe and it's affecting even his step off on the throws. I don't see their offense. Whenever their offense has had to score this year, they have scored. That's how they've won all these games. They always managed to get the touchdown when they need to get the touchdown. I don't see that changing at all. On Sunday against the Bills, Who's you know, a defense I don't think is that great? Uh stopping the pass here? So I'm gonna go Chiefs as well. I I love nothing more than Bucks Bills, and I'm gonna end up picking Chiefs Packers. Um. You know, I give I am Sean mcdermot's a very good coach. I don't want my commentarily to be misconstrued. But when you have an Andy Reid, who knows when to go for it on fourth down, doesn't just do the standard you know, dive middle on fourth down gets that is such a big advantage. It's not talked about enough having a coach who doesn't just do the conventional, by the book coaching. So uh and and Jimmy, I just want to jump on really quick some something you said. And I do believe in Lamar Jackson. I think he's really good. Uh. Because of the winning conditions in that game, the Bills were able to to just I mean this this is going to and I want to I want to reiterate I love Lamar Jackson. They went out with like a Tim Tebow uh game plan there just and and just assumed, Okay, Lamar's I canna be able to fit in tight window throws in these conditions, which is true. And you saw Josh Allen was you know, he was all over the place where the throws too. So again, I'm not comping Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow. I'm just saying it was the Ebo Wish approach of we're going to play his own. Everyone's gonna have their eyes on the quarterback and uh, and we're just gonna make you fit in some tight window throws, which is how it goes. And when you play the Chiefs, I mean, they have a million ways to beat you. I can't believe you just compare Lamar Jackson. I will say this in Lamar Jackson's defense. Now listen, I don't I don't think he is a great quarterback like everyone, but he has no weapons. But compared to the Chiefs, you know, they've got nice they have nice players. Uh, the Ravens, they don't have any great players on offense, especially you know, wide receiver and tight end. I mean, if you're comparing it to you know, the Kelsey's and the Tyreek Hill except have a good tight end, but but not not that's the point. Yeah, I mean they have a good tight end. But he's got nohing. He's got no one great to work with. I just want to put your mind that he's a little bit about mahomes toe. Just remember last year he I believe dislocated as me. I think that was the specific injury. Missed two weeks first week back, thirty six out of fifty four, forty six yards and three touchdowns. I'd like to see what that game is. Why is he throwing fifty like what that game shot out with Tennessee and they lost. They actually lost thirty five thirty two. It came down to like a multiple blocked field goals. I think if I remember, there's a problem because but what I'm just saying that, you know, if if he can't move around, I still trust his ability to remembering. I heard though he was affected by the toe last week. So that's what you know, because again that offense didn't come out and and light it up against the Browns. Yeah, I mean Gary would know more about that, you know. Uh, you know his play from last week in the tow and all that breaking. It's it's a runaround factor. I mean it's you know, he was he was not moving well at all. And obviously he's a guy who doesn't just need to run around. But uh, you know what, what's that stat they keep throwing out? He had the most like third down conversions on the ground of ten plus yard or whatever it is. See the third and long scrambles are absolutely deadly. And that's still in there. He's still I mean, he's not completely incapacitated, but um, you saw he just wasn't moving that well, and that makes it. That makes a difference. If it's gonna be it's gonna be close getting that third and eight. He also he also loves those long, long dropbacks, and then that requires you to you know, step at plant and step so you know who knows if he you know, and usually it's to throwing the ball downfield. So um, but yeah, listen, I don't again, if you're putting your money as that it seems like the three us on the same page here, but like you're putting your money on Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. It's it's not the worst thing in the world that you should feel good. But would I be shocked if Brady pulled something? Absolutely, I'd be more. But let me yes, which which game would surprise you more? For the underdog one? For me, it would be Buffalo because I'm not gonna be surprised if Brady one. What do you guys think about that? Ga, I feel the same way. I think, yeah, yeah, Wait, way to jump in, Mitch. I started to say, I didn't know he was gonna say Gary, I didn't. He named Stampty at the end of the sentence, and I was already and it was too late. It was my turn to go first. No, I mean, look, I Buffalo Uh again. I I'm just I'm not in this Bucks offense. And it's not even a brady thing. I'm just not into what they do offensively. I think it doesn't give them much of a chance against quality defenses. So but I've been saying all your Chiefs are by far the best team in football, and you know, if Mahomes is yeah, they still all right, let's do this before we will go to best bets and then wrap it up. Let's do this. So it sounds like we all like the Packers and Chiefs will start with you, Mitch, Packers, Chiefs super Bowl. What do you think the line is going to be? Oh, that's a fun question. Um, assuming a healthy Mahomes. Um, I think the Chiefs will be favored given that they are the defending champs and also are the Chiefs here. Um, and they'd be basically what's sixteen and one in meaningful games this year? But I don't know. I think a lot of people are gonna want to bet on Roger's I I would bet that line is under a field goal. Um. I would think maybe the Chiefs will be favored by two two and a half would be my guess. I'm going to say the public would swing it over three for the Chiefs, even though when you look at a lot of the advanced metrics, a lot of them like the Packers more than Chiefs this year. So um, but yeah, I think when the uh, the the general public starts putting the money down on this, it swings over a few let's say three and a half for the Chiefs. I'm gonna go more with the with the Mitch line, I think I think it might even be a pick them. Um. Listen, A little bit depends on how these you know what the turnout of the games is. You know, the Packers win, you know thirty eight twenty and the Chiefs pill out of nineteen seventeen win, that's gonna affect the line. But I have a feeling just because of the way green Bay's playing, they beat Brady, that's gonna I think in the public's eye, the Packers beating Brady is more in us of than the Chiefs being the Bills. So um, I think it's gonna be a pick them or maybe Chiefs minus one. I'm sort of with Mitch. I didn't think it might even be slate Low. I'm gonna go Chiefs pick probably should I mean, that's that's what the numbers say. Numbers say Packers should probably be given a point or so. Yeah, yeah, all right, let's do the best bets and we'll wrap it up with the two games a f C NFC title games on Sunday, Packers Bucks Bills, Chiefs. Gary what he got. I'm gonna go Packers minus three and a half, and I'm gonna go the under fifty four, under fifty four in Bill's Chiefs. Gary rooting for Rain in Kansas City at six forty on Sunday Night. Mitch Um, Yeah, you know what, I'm gonna go three best bets again this week. I'm I'm feeling myself. You guys talked me up so much that now I'm I'm overly confident, given I did not really have the best season, but I'm feeling good right now. So I'm I'm I'm with Gary on both of his I'm also gonna take Packers minus three and a half, and I'm going to take the Chiefs minus three, and then I'm also with Gary on the under fifty four or in the night game. Very very very boring, best best segment because I'm gonna go Packers minus three and a half and Chief's minus three as well. Alright, know what that means. Congratulations the Bills get to the super Bowl and they faced Tom Brady when they get there. What I love the Bucks Bills super Bowl. It'll be congratulations Bucks, Congratulations Bills were only losing back two in Kansas City. Yeah, exactly, Ken the Chiefe cover, that's really who cares about who's going to the super Bowl? It's can the cheese cover spread this week? All right, enjoy the game Sunday. And that wraps up for Mitch Gary and myself, and uh, good luck with your wagers. And that wraps up this edition of the m MQB Gambling Pockets. Yeah,

Welcome everyone to the mm QB Gambling Podcast. Title games on the docket for this Sunday. Only three NFL games left for the season, the two on Sunday and then the Super Bowl. We will break down both games from a betting perspective. And when I say me, I mean myself Jimmy Trained to my co host Mitch Golditch Gary Grambling as always taking you through and uh we'll check in now with Gary and Mitch on their best bets. Last week. I think I was one and two. I know I won the one game I like, which was the Packers and uh, and then whatever else I gave you, I guess was wrong. What about you, guys, Gary, how do you do? Uh? Not good? I only bet too. I lost in both. And look, the one good bet last week was the Packers and I did you guys both have that? I did? Okay? Yeah, kudos to both of you. That was the one that came in. That was it was just a weird we I mean, the weather kind of ruined, uh Ravens bills the under. I mean everyone should about the under once they saw the wind blow in the way it was on Saturday night. Uh, that was my loss. Had the over in that one. Yeah, I mean, and other than that, I mean, look, the Saints and Bucks played again this week. I would take the Saints. I mean it. I don't know what happened to Drew Brees. It was a complete melt down. He he just played like he was eighty seven years old, and that's that's the way it goes. So. Um but even though I don't you feel I felt like they lost that game because of Jared Cooked though I mean they're up seven and driving. That doesn't think that doesn't help that the two quarterbacks and uh, I've had this, I've had this argument people, Uh just seemingly nonstops since the games played. Tom Brady's an offense that provides like no answers for him. It's just a crappy offense and they're gonna have weeks like that where they just can't get anything going. Drew Brees is in an offense where he has opportunities, and he just missed every single one in that game. So even the Jared Cooks off it and yes, Jerry Cook was absolutely responsible for two of the four turnovers, but um, he was terrible. Otherwise, I mean, they should have they should have been up three touchdowns in the third quarter instead of about like the timing of the turnover that that fumble there where they were driving and it was a dagger too many cooks. Well, I'm just sitting here patiently listening to you talk about what a tough week it was. I was. I stayed away from the totals I had. I was four and oh straight up and four no against the spread. I had a I felt good about every game. Uh sorry if you didn't see the Tom Brady out playing Drew Brees. If they played again next week, I would pick the Bucks again, and I think there's a good chance I'd be right again. I gotta set up that exhibition then the Bucks. They don't have anything to do this week. They could just play the Saints again. Um so I best bet three of the games on this podcast. So a nice little three and o nice week for me, very nice, very nice. Only two games this week. It starts Sunday at three oh five with the Buccaneers and Packers. Great matchup that everyone is anticipating because of the quarterbacks. The Packers at home three and a half point favorites against the Bucks. The total year is fifty one and a half, Mitch. Yeah, so I feel pretty good about going with green Bay here. Um, obviously i'd feel better if the line was under a field goal than three and a half. Um. But I've been saying, I think every week on this podcast for months now that I think Green Bay is the best team in the NFC. And I watched both of those games last week. I didn't really see anything that would cost me to change my mind. Um, the Packers have a great offense. Obviously, everyone knows how good Rogers was this year. I also think they have a very underrated defense. And you know, again, I think a lot of people are going to talk about the thirty eight to ten game. Um, you know, I'll say similar to what I said about Buck Saints earlier in the season this time last week, which is it. It It was a long time ago, And you know, I I throw it out a little bit. I mean, you can't throw it out completely. But I'm not getting too hung up on the final score. I think sometimes people see a blowout like that and they say, you know, they they you know, how could they possibly beat them? They're not gonna swing it thirty points from the last matchup. But you know, I don't worry too much, Like sometimes the game just gets away from you. And you know it was a bad loss, but thirty eight to tend whatever. Looking back at that game, remember there was a pick six and then there was another interception that they returned all the way to the two. So, um, you know, sometimes a final score can be a little misleading. I mean, obviously Tampa played them, but they got out to a big lead and then they ran the ball a lot. Um. It wasn't like one of those games where Brady put up huge numbers like we saw later in the season. Um, So you know, the game was a little bit flukyer it could have easily been a little closer. Um. Looking at the weather, I think that's gonna be a big storyline in both of these games this weekend. And I'm seeing twenty nine degrees not much wind. You know, that's not like freezing, that's not Uh. They're not gonna be showing Tom Coughlin's cheeks during the game as a measure of how cold it is. Um. But you know, and that is still pretty cold. It's still Green Bay in January. UM, And you know, I don't want to overseate it too much, but I think it is a thing, and you know, it's just interesting seeing Brad. I mean, we've talked for years about old qbs in the cold weather late in the year, and I think that's the thing people have talked about with even with Brady in the past, even him being on New England and playing in that kind of environment. You know, I picked the Titans to beat the Patriots last year outright in the divisional round, and part of it was that, uh, you know, what I had seen from Tom Brady and and you know now this year he looks a lot better. Um. But really, a lot of the games they've played, especially in the stretch lately, they've been either in Tampa or they've been in domes, And you know, I want to give Brady credit. He's had a very good season. The offense has been good. But I do trust the Packers and Aaron Rodgers a little bit more in that kind of weather. I think they've you know, Brady's played in a million cold weather games. I'm not trying to put it all on him, but I think the Packers team this year has done it more. They did have that game in the snow against the Titans when they were great. They've had other games this season. UM, so you know, I think that's not like the deciding factor for me, but I leaned there a little bit. And again, you know, I just like the Packers. It feels like their whole season has been building to this. Um. You know you can say that about the Bucks and Brady too, but you know the Packers the way they got blown out last year in the NFC title Game and they have come back thirteen and three again this season, and it just feels like they've built to this point that they're going to be the NFC team in the Super Bowl. I'm looking at the spread, it's three and a half points. I'm just trusting in Aaron Rodgers and the team that I think is better, and so I'm gonna lean Packers to cover. Yeah, I'm I'm with Mitch on this one. And by the way, I did notice that you let off the show with Mitch for the first time ever and and deservedly, Mitch. Mitch is on fire right now. So I will tell you I had more notes on the second game because I had a feeling I thought he was gonna be coming to me first. I was. I was also surprised, but don't worry. I've got plenty of the the same about It's not like the first spot gets more time. I mean, whoever, you know, when you go, you go. I mean just but but oftentimes I can say I agree with Gary and also, you know, anyway you get something exactly, exactly exactly. I I agree with my colleague Mitch on this one. I really I thought the Packers would be given five five and a half in this one. I think this is a bit of an overreaction to the first matchup. And like Mitch said, pick six early another for all intensive purposes, pick six in the first quarter. It was a it was a a strange game. It's not kind of game you're gonna get from Aaron Rodgers twice. UM I was looking at for anyone who's into the h Lambeau Field playoff. Uh stats here Aaron Rodgers four two and one against the spread in playoff games at Lambeau. UM I was interested in this total. I think that total seems a little bit high, and I do want to go under with it, especially because as I mentioned earlier, UH, I think this Bucks offense is just sort of a I don't know, archaic, crappy offense. But UH, they have. Packers are going over their last three playoff games in Lambeo. Uh and weirdly, the the last three totals score totals. So I don't know. I mean, that doesn't make up my mind one way or another, but I found that very oddly consistent. Yeah, you know, this is a headheard thing for me. My heart. I want to pick the Bucks because I want to see Tom Brady went another Super Bowl, even though I think I said I was rooting for the Bills, but the Brady thing, it really got to me last week with him and breeze my head. Though, Um, I like the Packers too. I don't have a problem with the line. I think three and a half is fair. Um. You know, listen, you can break down xs and ohs and and stats and all this stuff, but you know, sometimes it's just someone's year, and it just this has the vibe that it's Aaron Rodgers year, that he's played the best out of anyone in the league from start to finish. Um, the Packers of played well, you know last year, if you remember, the Packers had a great regular season record, and I thought they were a terrible team. I wasn't surprised at all that they got blown out in the playoffs. Totally different team, totally different year. This year for them, they've been consistent, they've played better than anyone. Um, just seems like it's the package. You you know, they get that first home game in the title game for Aaron Rodgers. Davn hasn't played in an NFC title game at home in his career. I hate picking against Tom Brady. If you look back, I've probably never done it on this I don't pick against Brady. Um, but it's hard for me to see the Packers losing this game. It really is one one week away from the Super well two weeks away, but one game away from the Super Bowl. Uh. I like Green Bay minus the three and a half. I think though, where I'll disagree with Gary Little. I think I do like the over though the listen what what you say is correct. But it just seems like with these two teams, anytime you look up, the score is high. The playing to you. And I agree with Mitch about one thing too. I throw out the two previous the one game from the regular season. I don't think it's gonna mean anything on Sunday at three o'clock. Um, you know, four thirty to twenty three. I see something like that. Um for the Packers here, there's just there's no answers for Davante Adams, you know, Bucks a little bit banged up with Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones obviously. Uh, Leonard Fournette has not had like a big playoff fumble yet this year. You'll probably see that on Sunday. I would imagine, Um, so as much as I hate picking against Brady, I don't like to do it, and I want to see him win. I would Uh, I would go Green Bay here minus the three and a half. Mitch, you didn't say anything about the total. You want to throw any thoughts out on the total here? On this one, it's only games. I go back and forth, you know, I was. I'm with the of of the the two games, the two sides, the two totals. The total in this game is the one I have the worst feel on. Um, you know, And I just think part of that is going to be the weather. Um. And you know we saw the the impact of wind, uh, you know in the especially in the Ravens Bill's game last week. Justin Tucker of all people is missing kicks and you know it wouldn't surprise me at all, um to you know, to see uh windy cold weather game and miss kicks and who knows what I mean, It's interesting hearing Gary mentioned the Packers hitting the over. I have kind of a thing that I tweet out every year when Green Bay loses the how many points the Packers defense allowed in every Aaron Rodgers career playoff loss. And the numbers are so high, um, And I think that's part of the reason why the Packers keep it. If if you look at it, it's like there's like fifty one that Carlos Dance became a million years ago, and then it's like thirty five, thirty one, and like we saw in the Niners game last year. Um. And you know, I think a lot of the time it's because of their defense that they've been in some of these high scoring games. And I think the defense is better. And I just don't think it has gotten enough attention this year because everyone wants to talk about Aaron Rodgers winning the m v PA. But it wouldn't surprise me to see them hold the bucks into the twenties. And you know, if the game's in the load of mid twenties, I could see the under. I don't want to actually bet on that and then watch you know, Rogers and Brady combined for seven touchdowns and make me look very stupid. But if you made me pick one or the other, I would lean under. Alright, second game, sixt CBS and obviously this you know we're taping this late Thursday afternoon. The status of Patrick Mahomes is a huge factor in all this. I mean, listen, he's gonna play. I think if you if you don't think he's playing, Um, you don't know how football works. It's a matter of how healthy is he. But the Chiefs at home giving three points to the Bills, and the total here is uh fifty four points. Gary, Yeah, I uh, look at the side is tough. I would lean Chiefs here in part because I just Chiefs the full strength, and that means Patrick Mahomes, I don't know, only given a field goal at home to anyone, no matter how well the Bills have played. That's uh, that's a bit much. I will throw out the one one trend I noticed Bills are eight and one against it spread this year when the line is plus three or minus three either way, So that these sort of coin flip type games. The Bills have fared very well in UH. I like the total, I like the under again we are we are taping well before Sunday evening. The forecast looks like rain and a little bit of wind. It just looks like it. It might be a kind of a mess here. Um. I was prepared if it was gonna be sort of normal conditions, I was prepared to probably lean over on this one. UH. When these teams met back in October on they played that game on like a Friday morning or something, can't remember Monday. We all woke up one day and we're like, oh, Bills are playing the Chiefs. Uh. The Bills strategy in that game, and I think I saw I. I want to say it was. Stephen Ruiz at USA today had the stat that the Bills didn't blitz once in that game. They went an entire game without blitzing once, with his mind blowing in in UH in this day and age. So basically, the strategy that game was, we're gonna play four down linemen, we're gonna play seven guys with their heels on the goal line, and we're gonna not let Patrick Mahomes show over our head. And then she said, Okay, we're just gonna run the ball for twelve yards on every play, which is how it happened. And Josh Allen didn't get men shots in that game. And again a rainy, windy, crappy day in western New York that day. So I will lean under because of the weather conditions here if it looks like it's gonna uh kind of clear up a little bit, maybe look nice. And and I am also working under the assumption that Mahomes will be in the lineup. I would probably reverse it to over. But um, let's go under. Let me let me not be wishy washy. Let me just say definitively under fifty four. The interesting thing about Mahomes is, you know, obviously the concussion is issue from last week, but he's got this toe issue that a lot of people say have been a problem. So even if he's playing, listen, I think there's he's playing. There's no way he's not going to play. But I think he's going to be far from a hundred percent, which is gonna be interesting to see, how I mean. Listen, the Chiefs, as we have talked about, they don't they haven't covered a spread. I think since September basically, so indicated. But they win every game, so this will probably like seven Chiefs win whether they will win and not cover, but um, the ma homes that well, I would love to know. I would love to know how much money betters have lost this season on the Chiefs. I mean, they for the last two months of the season, and they were a team that and they're you know, the biggest public team out there, so I wish I could find that's that. But Chief's Chiefs are gonna be up four and they're gonna take a safety on the last player game. That's how it works. Win every game, but never cover, Mitch, will they cover the three? I'm picking them to um, you know, and and yeah, you hit a bunch of my talking points. You know. I'm like this when I can't get all worked up about if a team is gonna win by one point or two points. It's you know, picking games is hard enough. So you know a lot of times for me, if I feel good about a team winning and the spreads only three points, I'm just gonna take them. Um. I think that was that that happened earlier in this season, right, let me like last week, no I'm trying to think because Tampa was an underdog anyway, never mind all things to say, I don't live my life walking around worrying about a team only winning a game by one or two points. That's that's uh, that's a little too much anxiety, I think. Um, But you know, it's just it's so interesting to me looking at the narrative around these teams and how we think about playoff teams every year. Because you know, we've talked that Bills have not looked great the last two weeks. Um. You know, we talked about this that on this podcast last week, about them the week before where they basically got outplayed by the Colts for a lot of that game, and then against the Ravens they only scored seventeen points, and remember seven was a hundred yard pick six, So the offense scored tend on. The defense was good shutting down Lamar Jackson. But they haven't looked like they did late in the regular season when they're peaking, and week seventeen some people are putting them number one of the power rankings and Jimmy's picking them to win the Super Bowl. They just haven't looked that good the last two weeks. And you know, it's funny because there's always this kind of like roor shock test where you can read into that whatever you want. Like if you already love the team, it's very easy to say, oh, they're finding ways to win. And that's the mark of a good team is that they can win ugly. And you know, plenty of teams go to the Super Bowl and they get credit for winning ugly. Um. You know the Chiefs last year, they kept falling behind and then they would flip the switch and uh, come back and win. And you know, if they had lost to the Niners in the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people would say, oh, you see, you know this was them all playoffs, you can't you gotta play sixty minutes. It was bound to catch up to them. Um. But instead they had another double digit come back in the Super Bowl and ever said, oh, the Chiefs are the best team and they could just turn it on and win. So you know, it's like if the Bills win the Super Bowl, which you know, sure they could still do, then everyone's gonna give him credit and say that they did a great job winning ugly. And if they lose and they look bad, then people are gonna say, oh, they peaked too early and and they weren't as good as we thought they were. So all that to say, it's a little bit hard to read too much into the storylines, and so I'm just I'm taking a step back. The Chiefs, I think are the better team. I felt that all year. I felt that last week even just watching them, you know, seeing uh, with the expanded playoffs and you see six of the teams win in the first round and then move on to the second. You know, it really felt like we hadn't seen the Chiefs play in a while. And so we watch you know, all the teams again, and you see the Chiefs when they're clicking and looking good, and it's just like obvious to me that they're the best team. Um, you're right, you know, we're all assuming that Mahomes is going to be back. Um he's now gotten two full days of practice it or maybe limited, but anyway, he's on the field, and so if it's a concussion protocol, you assume if he's out there and practicing, Um, barring a setback, he should be good to go. So I'm just gonna stick with I think they're better. It's only three points. We've talked about it all year that they have not been covering seven and ten point spreads. I did best bet the Browns last week and they covered UM, so I like them and and I'm with Gary who started to be wishy washy and then got a little more definitive. But um, I also I I lean towards the under. UM. Fifty four just feels a little bit high. You know, these are recent trends, and read into it howver much you want. But Buffalo is the two playoff games four and seventeen three the Chiefs last week two the regular season was under the number. Um, you know, and we talked about the potential for weather and like rain just doesn't seem great. It looks like it's gonna be forty five degrees as the current forecast, but it's gonna be you know, dark and raining, and so it's gonna like feel cold. Um. You know, it's not like a Lambo game or you know, snowbawl or something like that. It's not Chicago or Green Bay, but you know it's still gonna be a cold day out there. I think night actually or evening if you prefer. Um. So, you know, looking at the line doesn't even hit the over. Um, you know, I don't think that we're gonna get a shootout with both of these teams in the thirties the way we may have expected, or what we'd see if if this game was played in September. So I I feel pretty good. I feel better about this game than the other one. But I like the Chiefs and I like the under Yeah, this game for me similar to the other game. I want to pick the Bills. I'm going to pick the Chiefs. Um. You know. I've talked, you know, endlessly in the pod about the Chiefs and never covering, but they have won every one of those games, and sometimes you just know how to win and and they've got that. I like the coaching advantage here with Andy Reid. We saw last week what good head coaching can do with his fourth and one throw. You're at you're at home lane, just a field goal. Um. You know my thing about Mitch hit it. I don't love the way the Bills played the last two weeks. I was on their bandwagon. I didn't love what I saw both weeks. I think, listen, you gotta give credit for stopping Lamar Jackson. But I don't think Lamar Jackson is nearly as good as everyone else. I'll say this, even if Mahomes let's say, plays and he's combined concussion, concussion and tow let's say seventy percent, Mahomes, in my opinion, is still so much better than Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson. So I can't see the Chiefs, uh, you know, unless Mahomes is just completely immobile from the toe and it's affecting even his step off on the throws. I don't see their offense. Whenever their offense has had to score this year, they have scored. That's how they've won all these games. They always managed to get the touchdown when they need to get the touchdown. I don't see that changing at all. On Sunday against the Bills, Who's you know, a defense I don't think is that great? Uh stopping the pass here? So I'm gonna go Chiefs as well. I I love nothing more than Bucks Bills, and I'm gonna end up picking Chiefs Packers. Um. You know, I give I am Sean mcdermot's a very good coach. I don't want my commentarily to be misconstrued. But when you have an Andy Reid, who knows when to go for it on fourth down, doesn't just do the standard you know, dive middle on fourth down gets that is such a big advantage. It's not talked about enough having a coach who doesn't just do the conventional, by the book coaching. So uh and and Jimmy, I just want to jump on really quick some something you said. And I do believe in Lamar Jackson. I think he's really good. Uh. Because of the winning conditions in that game, the Bills were able to to just I mean this this is going to and I want to I want to reiterate I love Lamar Jackson. They went out with like a Tim Tebow uh game plan there just and and just assumed, Okay, Lamar's I canna be able to fit in tight window throws in these conditions, which is true. And you saw Josh Allen was you know, he was all over the place where the throws too. So again, I'm not comping Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow. I'm just saying it was the Ebo Wish approach of we're going to play his own. Everyone's gonna have their eyes on the quarterback and uh, and we're just gonna make you fit in some tight window throws, which is how it goes. And when you play the Chiefs, I mean, they have a million ways to beat you. I can't believe you just compare Lamar Jackson. I will say this in Lamar Jackson's defense. Now listen, I don't I don't think he is a great quarterback like everyone, but he has no weapons. But compared to the Chiefs, you know, they've got nice they have nice players. Uh, the Ravens, they don't have any great players on offense, especially you know, wide receiver and tight end. I mean, if you're comparing it to you know, the Kelsey's and the Tyreek Hill except have a good tight end, but but not not that's the point. Yeah, I mean they have a good tight end. But he's got nohing. He's got no one great to work with. I just want to put your mind that he's a little bit about mahomes toe. Just remember last year he I believe dislocated as me. I think that was the specific injury. Missed two weeks first week back, thirty six out of fifty four, forty six yards and three touchdowns. I'd like to see what that game is. Why is he throwing fifty like what that game shot out with Tennessee and they lost. They actually lost thirty five thirty two. It came down to like a multiple blocked field goals. I think if I remember, there's a problem because but what I'm just saying that, you know, if if he can't move around, I still trust his ability to remembering. I heard though he was affected by the toe last week. So that's what you know, because again that offense didn't come out and and light it up against the Browns. Yeah, I mean Gary would know more about that, you know. Uh, you know his play from last week in the tow and all that breaking. It's it's a runaround factor. I mean it's you know, he was he was not moving well at all. And obviously he's a guy who doesn't just need to run around. But uh, you know what, what's that stat they keep throwing out? He had the most like third down conversions on the ground of ten plus yard or whatever it is. See the third and long scrambles are absolutely deadly. And that's still in there. He's still I mean, he's not completely incapacitated, but um, you saw he just wasn't moving that well, and that makes it. That makes a difference. If it's gonna be it's gonna be close getting that third and eight. He also he also loves those long, long dropbacks, and then that requires you to you know, step at plant and step so you know who knows if he you know, and usually it's to throwing the ball downfield. So um, but yeah, listen, I don't again, if you're putting your money as that it seems like the three us on the same page here, but like you're putting your money on Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. It's it's not the worst thing in the world that you should feel good. But would I be shocked if Brady pulled something? Absolutely, I'd be more. But let me yes, which which game would surprise you more? For the underdog one? For me, it would be Buffalo because I'm not gonna be surprised if Brady one. What do you guys think about that? Ga, I feel the same way. I think, yeah, yeah, Wait, way to jump in, Mitch. I started to say, I didn't know he was gonna say Gary, I didn't. He named Stampty at the end of the sentence, and I was already and it was too late. It was my turn to go first. No, I mean, look, I Buffalo Uh again. I I'm just I'm not in this Bucks offense. And it's not even a brady thing. I'm just not into what they do offensively. I think it doesn't give them much of a chance against quality defenses. So but I've been saying all your Chiefs are by far the best team in football, and you know, if Mahomes is yeah, they still all right, let's do this before we will go to best bets and then wrap it up. Let's do this. So it sounds like we all like the Packers and Chiefs will start with you, Mitch, Packers, Chiefs super Bowl. What do you think the line is going to be? Oh, that's a fun question. Um, assuming a healthy Mahomes. Um, I think the Chiefs will be favored given that they are the defending champs and also are the Chiefs here. Um, and they'd be basically what's sixteen and one in meaningful games this year? But I don't know. I think a lot of people are gonna want to bet on Roger's I I would bet that line is under a field goal. Um. I would think maybe the Chiefs will be favored by two two and a half would be my guess. I'm going to say the public would swing it over three for the Chiefs, even though when you look at a lot of the advanced metrics, a lot of them like the Packers more than Chiefs this year. So um, but yeah, I think when the uh, the the general public starts putting the money down on this, it swings over a few let's say three and a half for the Chiefs. I'm gonna go more with the with the Mitch line, I think I think it might even be a pick them. Um. Listen, A little bit depends on how these you know what the turnout of the games is. You know, the Packers win, you know thirty eight twenty and the Chiefs pill out of nineteen seventeen win, that's gonna affect the line. But I have a feeling just because of the way green Bay's playing, they beat Brady, that's gonna I think in the public's eye, the Packers beating Brady is more in us of than the Chiefs being the Bills. So um, I think it's gonna be a pick them or maybe Chiefs minus one. I'm sort of with Mitch. I didn't think it might even be slate Low. I'm gonna go Chiefs pick probably should I mean, that's that's what the numbers say. Numbers say Packers should probably be given a point or so. Yeah, yeah, all right, let's do the best bets and we'll wrap it up with the two games a f C NFC title games on Sunday, Packers Bucks Bills, Chiefs. Gary what he got. I'm gonna go Packers minus three and a half, and I'm gonna go the under fifty four, under fifty four in Bill's Chiefs. Gary rooting for Rain in Kansas City at six forty on Sunday Night. Mitch Um, Yeah, you know what, I'm gonna go three best bets again this week. I'm I'm feeling myself. You guys talked me up so much that now I'm I'm overly confident, given I did not really have the best season, but I'm feeling good right now. So I'm I'm I'm with Gary on both of his I'm also gonna take Packers minus three and a half, and I'm going to take the Chiefs minus three, and then I'm also with Gary on the under fifty four or in the night game. Very very very boring, best best segment because I'm gonna go Packers minus three and a half and Chief's minus three as well. Alright, know what that means. Congratulations the Bills get to the super Bowl and they faced Tom Brady when they get there. What I love the Bucks Bills super Bowl. It'll be congratulations Bucks, Congratulations Bills were only losing back two in Kansas City. Yeah, exactly, Ken the Chiefe cover, that's really who cares about who's going to the super Bowl? It's can the cheese cover spread this week? All right, enjoy the game Sunday. And that wraps up for Mitch Gary and myself, and uh, good luck with your wagers. And that wraps up this edition of the m MQB Gambling Pockets. Yeah,