Handicapping NFL Week 9: A Lamar Bounceback? Will Dallas go to 0-9 ATS? | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Nov 6, 2020, 9:00 AM

Jimmy, Mitch and Gary handicap the Week 9 matchups, including whether or not Lamar and the Ravens will bounce back, whether the Cowboys can get their first cover of the season when they host Pittsburgh, who's for real-est in the Cardinals-Dolphins matchup, and much more.

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Welcome everyone to the mm QB Gambling Podcast. Week nine in the NFL and one of your co host, Jimmy Train had joined by Mitch Golditch and Gary Grambling. As usual, the three of us were struggling there for a little bit. We sort of turned it around a little bit last week with our bets. Bets. I was two and one, Gary, how do you do? Uh? Three and two? Uh? Though, I will say I thought you best bet the over in raven Steelers, which which you didn't. So when that game went over and I had the under in it, I was I. I was. I was sued by the fact that I thought Jimmy had it, but it turns out no, we just I think I leaned on it, but I didn't pick it. Yeah, I will say my one of my biggest bets in the seat of the entire season, in where it really matters, was over twenty one points for the Steelers last week. They get a pick six fifty seconds into the game and then didn't score again. Basically, it was not the best Sunday there for a litt while. Then it turned out, Okay, Mitch, how do you do with the best beds? I did fine? Three and one and I was just gonna say, speak for yourself about we've been struggling lately. I'm sitting there looking at the numbers now twenty three, sixteen and one, a tidy fifty eight point eight percent the season. That's not struggling. Before we were all like five or under. But yeah, I think that that week we were Yeah, we were all five. It's an annual tradition that week seven we we bomb and then we turn it around. Well, let's hope the turnaround continues here. In week nine. We will kick things off with the Chiefs at home, giving ten and a half to the Panthers. The total is fifty two. Gary. Oh boy, I don't think I want to touch this one. Um, well you don't. If you don't want to touch it, we can't move right on to Mitch. No. I was just gonna say, I I'm still trying to figure out the Panthers at this point. And more than that, I'm really curious to see how teams will defend the Chiefs going forward. Yes, Patrickmlins just through for like seven yards on the Jets, but Jets don't have anyone you can play. So we've seen all these teams just sort of back up and and and just play to contain Mahomes and give up the run game. I'm guessing that's what the Panthers are gonna do, which means it's just gonna be a relatively low scoring game. So but I whatever, the Panthers frightened me regardless, so I back off of this one. If you haven't seen it, it it happened a little before we started recording. Chris Jones. I think he's gonna miss this game with some COVID, So I don't know if that alters anything there. Mitch, Yeah, we should say. First off, it's incredible how many teams are dealing with COVID this week. I mean, obviously we've known that this is hanging over the entire season, but it just feels like this week in particular, and I don't feel like nobody's paying attention because of the election and everything else going on. But there are so many teams with players and coaches and staff and they missed practice their minus position groups. It's really I mean, it's almost impossible to keep track of how many it is. And yeah, I saw that Chris Jones. Um I thought, Jimmy, you were actually gonna say something about Christian McCaffrey. It seems like he is likely to play the Sunday, which you'd think would be a huge boost for the Panthers. Um, I agree, Gary. They scare me a little bit. They have faded. I mean, they won three games in a row right when McCaffrey went down, and we thought, you know, this is impressive, good for them and Matt rule, but it won't last. And then they followed that up with now three straight losses. But those were also good losses. They were all one possession and they were against the Bears, Saints and Falcons and whatever you want to say about the Falcons, but those are three Those aren't easy outside, don't think. Yeah, no Falcons Thursday night and missing your your quarterback for what a quarter of night game. Yeah. Um, that's a good point to although Teddy Bridgewater also now on the injury report with a sore neck this week, which was interesting. But you know, I just I love the Chiefs. I talked about this every week. Uh, you know I always I'm just gonna keep picking them. Um, you know I was even Uh their defense. People want to talk about their defense being a weakness because the offense is so good. They've only allowed more than twenty points in a game one time all season, which was that loss to the Raiders. Um, you know, they're they're just great. And I know it's ten and a half points. I think I'm gonna shy away from best betting this just because the line is so high. But I mean, you look at these two teams. There's no reason to think the Chiefs aren't going to just keep rolling and win this game comfortably. And you know, if we were doing a pick up, if you made me just pick a side in each game, I would definitely pick the Chiefs here. But um, we'll see. We'll see how I feel at the end of the podcast if I want a best bet it, but I like them to cover that line. I love the Chiefs here. I watched a lot of that Chiefs Jets game last week because I had bet the Chiefs. We had them in the Chiefs Now, I understand how bad the Jets are. The Chiefs weren't even trying in that game, and they scored thirty five points Mahomes through five touchdown pants is and I'm telling you it was like the effort was like maybe in that game by the Chiefs, so I think they're gonna easily win and cover here by two touchdowns against the Panthers. I don't think the Panthers offense can keep up with the Chiefs. Um on the scoreboard next game. To me, this line is just such a total reaction from last week. The Ravens are giving two points against the Colts games in Indianapolis, the total is forty seven. Mitch, Yeah, I think I agree with you a hundred percent. And uh, I mean I love the Ravens here. You know, they they lost the Steelers. Talks about that game. They nearly won the game, and I love the Steelers. Um, you know, the Ravens, their their offense has not clicked like it did last year, but it's still a very good team. They're five and two and they lost to the Chiefs and Steelers, and I think sometimes it's that simple. The Colts and you know, they're five and two also, Um, but I just don't think that they're in the same class as Baltimore here. Um, you know, their defense is is very good. That you know, the first like three weeks of the season, everyone was talking about how dominant their defense was. I they are good. I don't think they're quite as good as we thought they were that early in the year. I do think they're a little bit overrated. Uh, not to clip off a hot take here, the Cults are overrated, but I just you know, I know they're close and they've got the same record. But I like the Ravens a lot more. The uh, you know, the traveling then being on the road doesn't bother me. The spreads under a field goal. I like Baltimore a lot in this game. Gary, So I I don't think the Cults are overrated. I I take exception to that, Mitch, but I actually like the Ravens a lot in this game too. Uh. One thing I wonder about and obviously, I mean, look, everyone's right to sort of, you know, be a little bit hesitate with Lamar Jackson this point after after that Nathan Peterman impression he put on last week. It was a it's a spot on tribute. But there's the hot take of the week. If you his his turnovers were atrocious. I mean that those were has this guy played quarterback before type of turnovers. But anyways, if you go back to last year, Lamar's worst game last season was in Pittsburgh. His only previous meeting with the Steelers. The Ravens one game because a Mason Rudolph Duck Hodges game for the Steelers, but they had to go to overtime. He had a bunch of ugly turnovers, he got sacked a bunch. Uh. It wasn't too far off from what you saw last week. Though again last week was that was his the worst performance of his career. I will say this though, if you look at the teams who have given Lamar problems defensively, it's the teams that do well. You know, do a lot, a lot of disguises defensively. The Coast to a little bit of that, but they are more of a uh just a lineup and go type of defense, and I think that sort of is a better matchup for for Lamar going forward here. I love the Ravens better team. This is a total I mean, you're giving less than a field goal with the Ravens. I understand that Lamar Jackson didn't play well last weekend. I don't think Lamar Jackson is nearly as good as everyone else. Um. I could give you probably eight quarterbacks that I'd rather have than Lamar Jackson. But talk about just an overreaction to playing the best team in the NFL. I mean, it's insane to me that this line is just two not sold on the Colts because they beat the Lions. Uh, you know, I'm not gonna sit here, and they've played better than I've expected for a lot of the year. But I still am not, you know, a sold on Philip Rivers at all. I've seen him played terribly against good defenses, so I think he'll have a long day here. I love the Ravens, all right. Next game is in Buffalo, the Seahawks visit the Bills. Seattle is minus three on the road here at Buffalo. Big total fifty five Gary, Yeah, body clock games, So the sirens going off in this one. But I mean, look, I'm really worried about this Buffalo defense. You know, even the last week that ended up being a bit of a get right game for the Patriots, who had really struggled the last couple of weeks offensively. I think this game might just be a name your number type of game for the Seahawks here. And I'm never crazy, as as you guys know, I'm never crazy about the West Coast teams coming across the coming across the country playing the early games. But I just think the Seahawks you're gonna put up as so many points as they want and generally keep it out of Buffalo's hands here, So does Josh Allen go shopper shot? I like Josh Allen a lot. Uh, I don't think he does the Seahawks defense what the Seahawks offense can due to this Bill's defense. Mitch, Yeah, Garry, I agree with a lot of what you said, and I thought you were going to tell me you kind of like the over fifty five here given all that, because I could also see a lot of points on the board. Um I should. I wish I had this in front of me because I know you love talking about the body clock games. If I remember right, the Seahawks are okay with that, and they buck the trend a little bit on those East Coast games. Maybe, I don't know if you can look that up while I'm talking. If not, then let's just assume that I'm right, or you know that I just talked about liking the Seahawks every week, So I just imagine that they are good in that situation, because they're good in most situations. They're a good team and they win all kinds of games. Uh. And so when I can get the Seahawks favorite give only three points, I'm going to take them more often than not. Um. You know, I'm a little concerned about that Seahawks backfield and all the injuries and down to their third fourth guy whatever, but it is less of a concern than it's been in years past, just given that there they've become a passing offense and we all know the uh let Russ Cook narrative. Um. So yeah, you know, Gary, I agree with you. And and Josh Allen is he's good, he's talented, but he's just not consistent. He doesn't do it every week. Um. You know. Now, Jamal Adams I think is back now, right, Yeah, he's back, so um uh you know that should help Seattle a little bit. And uh, you're right, the Buffalo defense, it's just interesting that they just haven't been as good as last year. So all that to say, I do like Buffalo. I think they are a good team. Um, but I like Seattle here a lot. And then being on the road, you guys know, I'll I'll pick Seattle all the time. I'll pick road teams all day. So it spreads only a field goal at that number. I like Seattle. I love Seattle. Here, Mitch mentioned a couple of the reasons why the Seahawks of the one team where when West Coast team goes to the East Coast that they're not bothered by that at all. Uh, they've already won in and covered in Miami earlier this year. UH five and two against the spread this year for the Seahawks. And Mitch hit on another item in this game, the Bill's defense is has come down immensely from last year and the way the Seahawks are playing on offense. I don't mind laying a field goal here on the road at all. Next games in Tennessee, Titans giving six and a half, trying to bounce back after a loss to the Bengals against the Bears, a lot of people calling for Troubisky to come back, but now he's banged up, so still being Nick Foles here. Total is forty six and a half. Mitch, Yeah, I was just gonna mention that too. Kind of amazing. Tropisky played one play and got hurt, and Uh, I don't know how many situations around the league are there where an injury to the backup quarterback is seen such a big story during the week, but that's what we've got here. Yeah, it feels like the Bears are fading and people are coming down from them a bit. Just the way people are talking about them. I mean, it's never good when you're when the main topic of conversation is the need to switch quarterbacks, and it feels like people wanted to talk them into their second of the year, um, whereas I'm sure they would prefer people were just talking about how good their defense is, because their defense is very good. But you know, the Titans have a great offense, and I do I think the bears past defense is a little better than the rushed defense. And I know people want to talk about how good Ryan Tannehill has been, but when I look at the Titans, I and I just think about teams matching up with them. I still think that trying to stop Derrick Henry is easily the number one top priority. Not that the Bears can't do that, but um, you know, it's just so hard to slow him down. So you know, the Titans, they're another team that they have sort of the perception of them has fallen off as they've lost a couple of games. Um, I was definitely surprised by Uh, they're also you know, two weeks ago to the Steelers, not a big deal. The Bengals a lot is more concerning. But that feels like the kind of game they're gonna bounce back from. Plenty of teams have a bad game here or there. It was just kind of unfortunate timing that it was a week after the Steelers. Um, But I do I think this is a spot where Tennessee can bounce back. So, um, you know, six points do us feel like a little bit much for me to make it a best bet. But I would lean Titans here. Yeah, I'd back off the sides in this one. I do think that numbers a little bit too big here. I probably lean Bears about to go one way or another. Ryan Tannell was really bad last week, and and it might have been a fluke. I mean he is, He's as pure a system guy as as you can get, aside from maybe Jared Golf at this point. But I do wonder a little bit about the Bengals game. If the Bengals had something in advantage, basically preparing four very similar offenses back to back weeks, they got the Browns two weeks ago, and uh, and then they got the Titans, which was a similar preparation uh for last week. So maybe that had something to do with it, or maybe the Titans just uh, you know, Tannehill atten off week and the defense continue to struggle. I think this one goes under. I think forty six and a half is still too high here. I don't think the Bears are gonna give up that many points. They've always been pretty good against the play action game. Uh, They're not gonna give up you would presume. I mean, look, Derrick Henry could also you know, you could always go for like an I dr touchdown, but you you don't assume that's going to happen. So I think this one stays low scoring. I don't think they hit that forty six and a half number, So that's that would be my play here in this one. I don't have a play. I would lean Tennessee. I think they're gonna, you know, they do for a bounce back here at home against the Bears team that has a pathetic offense. But six and a half is a little high for me. With Tennessee struggling a little bit the last couple of weeks. Obviously. The interesting thing here Bears what they do well is run defense Derrick Henry obviously for Tennessee, so that, you know, maybe doesn't go crazy. So I would back go. I like Tennessee minus six and a half. I'm not gonna bet it. It's I'm a little too scared of that. Next game, the Texans go into je Jacksonville, giving six and a half points to the Jaguars. The total is fifty and a half. Gary. Yeah, I like the Texans. I don't want to buy into this too much, but I do think when a team that is sort of at risk of being a seller doesn't make any moves at the deadline, I think there's something of of a little bit of a boost for a team like that. And uh, you know, you look at the match up here. Houston's beating Jacksonville five straight times. They've covered four of those games. Uh. Two of those games, Uh they covered with the spread six and a half or higher. So, uh, you know what are they They beat him a three to fourteen a couple weeks ago. They beat him twenty six to three in Jacksonville last November. So, um, I just like the way this one sets up for the Texans with with Jake Luton the rookies starting for the Jaguars. I think there are certain quarterbacks switches that you look at it and say, well, all right, they're they're gonna roll out something new. It's you know, if you're switching from a you know, if you've got a Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson type switch or something. But this isn't that. Uh, Luton is going to operate Jake his offense, which is a good offense, but he's probably not going to do it at very high level. And plus you lose some of the Gardner Minshew sort of out of structure stuff, and I I just I think this adds up to another rough week for Jacksonville. Here, Mitch, I was waiting for you to to bring it up, Gary that it wasn't the first thing any around this game is to Shaun Watson against Jake Luton. Uh, no offense to Jake Luton. But I mean that is, uh, that is quite an advantage. We talked about other situation. We talked about the Cowboys, you know, just torpedoing when Ben da Nucci came in there. You know, listen, I'm not a huge college football fan. It seems like Jake Luton had a more accomplished college career than UH than Ben da Nucci. So you know, I don't want to be smirch him too much, but I mean, I don't know how you don't take the Texas in this game. I realized I'm probably I'm the last person on earth still holding out hope for the Texans UH and thinking they can not not turn things around. But sort of like what we saw last year in Atlanta where they started to in seven, I in and they went on that run in the end of the season and then you look and they weren't a playoff contenders, but their record was at least respectable. We could still see that in Houston. I think their schedule has been comically difficult this year. They I'm gonna repeat it again because it bears repeating frequently. They're one and six. They lost to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, and Packers, and then the only other two games they played they lost to the Vikings and they beat these Jaguars thirty to fourteen. They if they had an easier schedule, if they were like three and four, the line I think would be very different. Um, you know, the Jags. They've lost sixth straight, four of them by double digits, including the last three, and they are not playing against world beaters like the Texans have. I just think it's clear the Texans are a lot better now. I will say I was all set to say all of that, and then just all the Texans now have three linebackers on the COVID list, and so they might be playing with all backup or practice squad linebackers, which is clearly a huge concern and something that it's just like, you know, impossible to analyze. But I guess there you got backup linebackers defending a back up quarterback. But now I I liked I like Houston a lot. I think the linebacker that issue might be the reason I don't best bet them, but I feel comfortable taking them here. I have nothing to say about this game. I wouldn't bet it, wouldn't watch it. I would out of every single team in the NFL, the team I've probably seen the few fewest minutes of is the Jaguars. Can't watch them, won't bet them. Next game, the Washington football team at home giving two and a half points to the Giants. The total is forty two and a half. Mitch, Sure, Um, I like the Giants here. They are underdogs here, but I did I picked them to win out right. Remember they beat Washington a few weeks ago. It was just a one point game, came down to that two point conversion at the end when Ron Rivera went for it, so it easily could have gone down either way. Um, But since then, they lost the Eagles by one point and the Bucks by two, and they've had a lot of games this year where they've been pretty competitive. I mean, this is going to be a sloppy, crappy, disgusting NFC East game as that we all know would love. Um, But I just I think they're a better team than Washington as the you know football team had a get right game against Dallas the last time we saw them, which was the game when Dalton got hurt and Danuccia was pressed into action and they only scored three points. Now they're coming off a by But I just think Washington has been really bad this year. So uh, you know this is God help you if you're gonna watch much of this game on Sunday. But but I do like the Giants. Gary now it's Daniel Jones has beaten the football team twice here. Uh, just real quick on Daniel Jones, because you know there's this narrative out there after Monday Night, which is it's probably the the one game where Daniel Jones had the biggest audience he's ever had. And uh, you know he throws the two bad interceptions Daniel Jones. Jones interceptions are not like Jamis style interceptions or something. He's not inaccurate with the ball. Uh he is, He's not accurate enough, but he's not inaccurate with the ball in these interceptions. And he's not like getting fooled by defenses are misreading defense or missing defenders. He just tries to extend these plays too long and then he ends up getting hit and the ball comes out wrong and uh and it ends up with the defender. I mean that that's been like I'm actually gonna chart at this, uh this these next two days and and right in my column this weekend. But uh, those are his turnovers. That's how he turns the ball over. That's not that's not good, but that's not like utterly hopeless. You can correct that. You can start getting the ball out quicker and you figure at some point it's just gonna happen where they're just gonna tell him, like, dude, you just gotta you gotta hit your back foot and just gotta go, or you know, if it doesn't go, just curl up the field position and just be done with it. But I don't think Daniel Jones is anywhere near the disaster that he's being made out to be at this point. And for that reason, I do like the Giants this week. I want to pick the Giants badly. I lean Giants. I think they're a better team. I think they win the game. They're playing better despite you know, complete collapse against the Bucks. But I cannot tell you to put your money on the New York Giants. I just can't. So I lean, but I cannot give it out as it it wouldn't be it would be irresponsible. In the next game, the Falcons are giving three and a half points at home to the Broncos. The total here is fifty Gary. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I I was really on the Broncos last week, and obviously they came through. They they want outright as a as an underdog. It's just such an ugly offense. I mean even their comeback was like, oh man, this is this is really difficult to watch. This is just a rough brand of offensive football that they're rolling out there right now. So I think the Falcons are probably in better shape at this point, but I don't know. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lean on the Falcons at this point, so h this one's a stay away from me. Obviously. I like the Falcons defense. I don't know if they can match up on the outside. We'll see if Calvin Ridley plays, but um, Julio is gonna be a problem with them with all these corners out, and I don't know. I I back off of this one, Mitch, Yeah, this one. I was late to come around on the Broncos. And then uh, this way, you know we I always talk every week about our mm QB pick them where we pick games. Straight up, I'm one game behind Jenny Rerentis for the season lead. I was like, man, everyone keeps picking the Broncos and I'm the last one and I'm just doing it. And then I checked the fis and somehow I was the only person on the entire staff who picked Denver to be the Atlanta straight up here. Uh, and now I feel like I'm painted into a corner where I have to defend myself. Obviously, I've got to pick them to cover uh getting three and a half if I'm going to pick them to win the game out right. Um, you know, I don't know how strongly I feel about them actually winning this game. Sometimes you just gotta pick some upsets. But I do I like him to cover at least keep this game within a field goal. Um. I think they've been better on both sides of the ball than I kind of expected. The defense definitely has been good in stretches I think throughout this year. And the offense, You're right, it's like sometimes ugly, but I do think they have enough weapons they've they've gotten. They're one of the teams that has actually gotten like a little bit healthier as the season's gone on. And I do think they oftentimes do just enough. So the Falcons, I mean, you want to talk about teams you can't tell people to put their money on. Uh, you know, they're one of those teams. Sometimes I just feel like, who knows what I'm going to get from them? Um, And you know, they started out oh five and have won two out of three since then. Um, I think Calvin Ridley is a big loss though, Um, you know he's been he's been great in that offense all season and so not having him as big so you know, I actually I like Denver to to cover and uh, you know, possibly win. So you know I'm gonna stand by it and uh and beat Bold here and take Denver plus three and have Even if I don't sound that confident talking myself into it, it's I feel like every week I look up on Sunday and the Broncos are doing better than I thought they were gonna be doing. So this this week I'm getting in on it. And Mitch, Mitch let the record shoe. I also had the Broncos straight up last week. You were not the only one. You're not know this coming week, I'm saying for this coming week. Yeah, okay, yeah, year alone on that. Yeah, yeah, I know. Yeah. I don't have a feel for this one at all. I mean I want to lean Atlanta, I guess, but um, the Broncos are a weird team. You never know what you're gonna get from them week to week. Falcons are sort of in the same boat. You think Atlanta would cover three and a half at home. But um, I don't know where to go with this game. I don't trust. I don't trust either team. That's the bottom line. I don't trust either team, So it's to stay away from me. Speaking of teams I don't trust. As you know, I was at Chargers games. That is the next game on the board. They're giving a point at home to the Raiders. The total is fifty one and a half. Mitch, Yeah, I like the charge so I don't mean to tell you off. And last week I feel like vindication proof of why I don't bet Chargers games. Yeah, totally fair. You know, I always ridiculous. They're always ridiculous always, uh you know, like this is nice, except the line is one point. So just pick the team that you think is gonna win here. Um, you know, even though if there's anyone who you know, the Chargers can figure out a way to be favored by one and tie and uh not cover or win by exactly one and push. But now I'm gonna go with them here. Um. I mean, justin Herbert has been really good and I just think, you know, they're gonna win some games this year. I know that's simplistic advice. Never when I'd never claim to be an expert on this podcast. But um, you know now I've totally lost my trade thought. No, you know, I think the Chargers there they are. It's like karma. It's like this cosmic thing. I think they are better and more talented than their record shows. It's just so weird what happens to them. Um, but they're gonna win games throughout the season, and I think this is when they can win. Uh. They are a home team, although that is not something that I frequently talked about the Raiders, though, it feels like they are not quite as good as the way people were talking about them earlier in the season. You know, I know they're four and three and they're in second place in this division. They're half a game out of the seventh seed. They've got a negative point differential. They're a team to me that you really don't know what you're gonna get from week to week. The Chargers, we know they're going to be in these crazy games with wild finishes that are gonna hang on one score of The Raiders are a team that sometimes they'll show up and be really really good and sometimes be not as good, and so you know, I do like the the the Chargers consistent chaos, and uh, for some reason, I think they can pull one out. So I'm not gonna best about the Chargers, but I lean that way. Yeah, if you go by football outsiders D B o A here, you've got the Chargers at nineteen and Las Vegas. I would back off this one just because you know, like we say, the Chargers, the final score of Chargers games rarely reflect how they actually performed in the game. And and for that reason, it's just like, what what are you gonna do at this point? I mean, I could see them out gaining the Raiders by a hundred fifty yards and losing this game by ten points. So I'll just I'm I'm in Jimmy's camp on this one. I'm I'm back in a way. That's a great summation, it really is. The score never reflects what actually sort of happen in their games. The next game is in Dallas. The Steelers go into Dallas minus fourteen. Total is forty one and a half. Bend Nucci, it was a good run, but it's over. Garrett the Cooper Rush era. Actually, I'm I'm gonna briefly seed the floor to to Mitch because I actually I have a surprise, uh sort of a note. Surprise note that doesn't sound very exciting at all. But Mitch, you go first, and then I'm gonna say my thing because I just got it texted to me. Goodness, this is unprecedented. I have no idea what to expect. Terra the floor to me. I wasn't ready. No, I'm ready. Um, I'm ready to say that. I have a hard time imagining Dallas scoring thirteen points in this game? Is that mean? We said it last week when it was Denucci and now he's gotten benched. Uh, it's Is it gonna be Cooper Rush? I thought it was gonna be either him or Garrett Gilbert. They're having a tryout during practice. I don't know. I mean, I don't know how you can be confident in any of these guys. It is. It's it's the It's so sad. It would be sad if it was anybody except the Dallas Cowboys. And I think people are happy to laugh at them and enjoy it. And I'm saying this, uh, not just as an Eagles fan, but as an American. I just think it's it's it's fun that this is uh, this is the state of the Dallas Cowboys right now. Um, the Steelers defense might outscore the Cowboys offense in this game. Since they get to pick six every week, there's an honest risk of that happening. And you know, I've said this before, like I think there are some defenses that actually take pride in the final score at the end of the game. Like some defenses they're gonna let up and play prevent and give up garbage time. The Steelers defense, to me, they are so good right now. They are the kind of team that I think would love to make Dallas finish the game with six or nine on the scoreboard. So normally you look at a fourteen point spread, you might worry about a backdoor cover. I trust the Steelers to finish a game in play sixty minutes. They are easily gonna put up their normal seven points, uh, you know, or more. Seven is not that much. They've scored twenty six in every game this year. I was looking, they scored twenty six exactly at least one and two and more than that every game since. And you know, so honestly, the Cowboys gonna score ten points. They might have got good players, uh you know they're I like their receivers, but someone has to get the ball to them. So all this to say, I mean this just has obvious blowout written all over it. Um. I like this game more when it was thirteen and a half before the spread jumped up to fourteen. But I'm gonna best bet him here. I'm gonna take Pittsburgh. I love the Steelers. If it's four, thirteen and a half, fourteen or twenty four, this is gonna be ugly. Um My fear is that maybe Ben Roethlisberger gets lifted in the third quarter or after the third quarter. I love the Steelers and little nugget. There are three teams in the NFL who have covered six times this season, which is the most in the NFL. Is one team at six and one, two teams at six and two best records against the spread. The Steelers are six and one. The Chiefs are six and two. Do you guys want to take a guess on who that third team is at six and two? I just looked at this, Uh yeah you go. First time, I was, Uh, it's not Arizona, is it? It is the Cincinnati Bengals who are on a bye this week. So the Bengals are there with the Chiefs and Steelers. Steelers six and one covering, they'll make it seven and one. No need to worry on that one. Next game the wa wa surprising. Oh yeah, you see, you threw me off. I went to you, then I went to Mitch. I kept in order. I forgot you had this surprise note. Let's hear it my note. So Scott Scott Grambling, who was uh the one of the original three hosts on the show, Mitch now sits in his seat also us. He's my brother. He's also Lehigh alum like Mitches. So that's why I should say I'm not literally in his seat, given that now I'm home. We used to do with in the studio that he does not have a chair at my house. But you were supposed to be. You were supposed to be going to his place to tape every week. But we'll we'll let it slide here. But uh so he sent me this note. Uh. Steelers as double digit favorites since the start of five and twelve against the spread, two overs, fifteen unders. And also if you go back to these are as double digit favorites. Steelers own six against the spread. Five of those games went under, So, uh, proceed at your own rich the risk. The the ghost of Scott Grambling weighing in on this one. He's still very he's still very much alive. Good to get the inside of the Grambling gambling ramblings as your former tone. That is true, I will say, I Uh. The Steelers for many years have played down to their level of competition a frustrating amount. Uh. And that shows that a lot. But I don't know how many of those games were against fourth string quarterbacks who a week ago we're behind Ben d Nucci on the depth chart. Listen, if they were a double digit favorites. They're playing bad quarterbacks most of the time. But Cooper Rush, Now, Jimmy, Jimmy, if you're right, like your your mouth to God's ears. If we get like a Mason Rudolph versus Cooper Rush second half, I mean that's going to be Uh. The universe is going to collapse upon itself. Fourth quarter, thirty five three, Here comes Mason Rudolph. Um next game, Arizona minus four at home against the Dolphins. The total is forty eight and a half. Mitch yeah, I'm gonna pick the Cardinals here. Um, simplistic again, I think they're the better team. I think they're gonna win. Um. I know the Dolphins last week, all the attention was on ta and his debut, and he didn't play particularly well. They didn't ask him to do much, which was nice. They didn't have to because they scored a special teams touchdown and the defensive touchdown. I mean, his numbers were not pretty. Um, they were not efficient. You know, if you look at all the metrics of total yards and yard per play and all that stuff. Um, you know, he didn't have to do much. Like I said, you know, I'm excited to see him in a real game where they do open it up a little bit more. But you know, I have some concerns, and that's not I don't want to overreact to his first start. I'm not saying he's a bust or a mistake or it's even a mistake to have him in there. I I like that they did that and put him in. Um, but now he loses his starting running back Myles Gaston is out, so it looks like it's probably gonna be mac Brida time. Um, so maybe they will ask for a little bit more from him. UM. But you know, I've been high on the Cardinals all year. They're now coming off of by UM. A very important note that I I brought up last year. I always talked about, you know, Arizona, the state does not have daylight saving time. So while everyone else in the league is a little bit disrupted, I think the Cardinals just have have had a nice steady circadian rhythm, and so they're well rested, and I think they're going to be in good shape in that regard. And so you know, if I if I would pick them in normal circumstances, there's no reason not to pick him this week. And uh, sitting at home, I like him to cover four points. We gotta get a mattress sponsor on the show. I really like Miami here. Look, I think Miami is better than Arizona. I guess we'll find out this week how this plays out. I'm never crazy about road teams going to Arizona. For whatever reason, it seems like the Cardinals have a little bit of an extra edge there. Maybe it is the uh, the the lack of daylight saving this time there, but uh, I just wanna I think this line reflects that Cardinals win over Seattle. I just want to say one thing about that game. Russell Wilson made three huge mistakes, ridiculous turnovers, just clownish turnovers in that game that he'll do maybe once every couple of years, and he crammed three of them into a game, and the Cardinals still had to go overtime against a team with no defense and a quarterback who was having like a mini meltdown. I just don't think they're you know, they're they're fine. I think they're like the eighteenth best team in football or something like that. And uh, I just I'm buying the Dolphins here. I buy the Dolphins coaching staff. I do think they're gonna have answers for a Cardinals offense that is basically, uh it's all you know, it's it's all just quick Strich stuff. And then it's you know, pray that Kyler is going to make a play with his legs, which maybe he will a couple of times. But I think that's a tough thing to bank on week to week. You buy the Dolphins after the way to have played last week, it was fine. I mean, look, he was gonna have to be broken into some point he hadn't played an organized game and in what over a year at that point, and Harry, he gets thrown out there. He doesn't know how in an NFL pocket works and be be you know, he got smashed a couple of times, which is which is fine. I like this Dolphins defense matching up the Cardinals offense. And and and one of the things about the about the coaching staff here in Miami after September the last two seasons here, and you know, they had the the very remade roster last year and then he had obviously all the all the pandemic stuff this year. They are twelve and three against the spread after September, uh, the last two years. So I like him to go out there and uh probably win this one out right or at the very east. I think they keep it within a within a possession here. I like Arizona and this one. You know, the Dolphins last week scored on you know, defensively, special teams too could not have played. I thought he was terrible. I am biased. I never thought too it was going to be a good NFL quarterback. I still don't um. I only he can throw so um. Now he's going on the road. First NFL start on the road here. I I think Arizona wins this, uh pretty easily. I have to say I don't. I don't. And I also wonder about the Dolphins play Listen, the Dolphins ended up getting a win last week against the Rams again because of a bunch of crazy plays that had nothing to do with their offense. And I gotta wonder, if to a place poorly again here, what the rest of the players are thinking when this could have been a team that could win the a f C East and they pulled their quarterback who was basically leading them. Are you know, if to a play if we get a repeat performance here by twa, I think you have some Dolphins players being like, you know, we could have won the division for the first time in about a billion years. What is going on? But we'll have to see how that plays out. I think two was in for a long day here against the Cardinals. Next game is a good one, the Bucks at home four point favorites against the Saints. The total is fifty one. Gary. Yeah, I'll I'm not gonna bet this one. Obviously, it's a great game and everyone can watch it. Uh. The Drew Brees shoulder stuff. It's it's it's making me a little bit nervous here. Obviously we've seen that that armstrike really get drained as the season goes on the last couple of years. Um, I'm gonna find this Tim Leaden tweet because I thought it was a really clever tweet that he has sent out. Dark tweet, but a clever tweet that he sent out about Drew Brees is surgically reconstructed shoulder that we all forgot about over the years. But um, I'll back off this one. I look, I think the Bucks are the best team in football. I've thought that for a couple of weeks now. I was fine with their performance in East Rutherford in in what was a trap game last week. So I like the Bucks. Here, I leaned the Bucks, but I'd probably stay away from this one. Mitch. I'm with you everything you said about Drew Brees there, Gary, Uh, that is concerning, you know, I think given the player and his age and the body part and just how it just kind of popped up and and stuck up on the injury report one day in the middle of the week, like you know, that one worries me that there could be something to it. Um, And even if he plays fine for a couple of weeks, like that's the kind of thing I just see, like in week thirteen or fourteen, there's a problem and people say, oh yeah, I remember that week, Like you know, something happened to him like that that I worry about a lot. Um if anything happens to him, we'd get Jamis stepping in there against his old team, which would be fun, and Jamis against Tom Brady. Um, I think you have to go bucks here. I know there was a sloppy win against the Giants. They did win it. I think Mike Evans said after the game like that's the kind of game we always lose, or in years past we would have lost, but we found a way to win. And and it is true. Sometimes you know, it's discouraging when a team doesn't play very well. Sometimes it is encouraging when they find a way to win. Um. So yeah, you know, I think they're a better team. Where I'm still I still want to hear about Michael Thomas and when he's going to get on the field. We know what a huge difference he makes for the Saints, and I haven't seen for sure that he's gonna play. Um, so that's another reason to lean Tampa. You know, we tape on Thursdays, so we'll know more by kickoff time. But um, yeah, you know it's good teams. I expect to be a good game. This is one where I'm happy to just watch and uh not have anything on it. But I think I would lean bucks for sure. I love the over here fifty one. I don't really have some like inside uh analysis or crazy stats or give you some you know, in the trenches thing like Gary. Here's what I know. These teams score a lot of points every week, so I don't see that changing this week. So I like the over fifty one. Last game Monday Night, the Patriots. The pathetic inept Patriots are still a touchdown favorite because they're playing a team more pathetic and are the New York Jets New England minus seven at the Jets total forty two and a half. Mitch, I'm taking the Patriots. Just do it, don't think too much about it. Just hold your nose and pick against the Jets. The Jets are so awful. They're awful against good teams. They're awful against bad teams. Four straight weeks they've scored ten points or fewer. I get it. The Patriots are struggling, but you know, they did hang in there with the Bills last week. It's just it's crazy to me to see that the Jets are only getting a touchdown, you know, against the team, unless it's like a team that's truly like joining the Jets in the bottom three to four of the league, which I don't think the Patriots are there. Um, you know, the Patriots, some people thought there would be a fire sale or get rid of stuff on Gilmar the deadline, maybe other players. They didn't. Um, you know, they're a good enough team and they're still well coached, and they're gonna win this game. Gary. Yeah, I'm I'm backing off Patriots for a for a while here, maybe for the rest of the year. I just wonder, at one point, at what point do the guys on this team who are used to playing for Super Bowls year and year out and this year they're you know, trying to I don't know, shooting for eight and eight or whatever the reasonable goal is at this point. And Bill Belichick's on EI the other day saying, like, you know, the fact is, we just don't have the same talent here or whatever is quote was I wonder if they just at some point this season kind of lay down. Uh, if you're gonna bet them, this is a this is a good one to pick him in. And I certainly lean New England here, but I'll probably just stay away from them. Yeah, I have no lean, no pick, no bet. It's is there a team in the NFL that's the worst group of receivers than the Patriots? All right? Cam is playing terribly and he has zero help. It's a big combination, but gross game here on Monday night. All right, they did. They traded for Isaiah Ford, who I had never heard of before. I got some I got some reinforcements. That wraps up the the games for week nineteen. We will now give you our best bets game. Jimmy Shell be the Sleep of the Switch. Well, Jimmy, you missed the lightning round. I wasn't gonna call you out. Oh yeah, you know you do call out Shelby. I'm going to call out you. I was ready. You you just mix in you you put the games in. Yeah, I put the games in. That's right, my bead. Alright, alright, it's fine. Alr. That's why we went on at length about Giants Washington. Yeah, let's let's let's do twenty minutes of sound effects and then we'll wrap up with the best. That's that's for me, because I didn't do a lightning round. Yeah we we we we skipped the lightning round with the Giants and Red Skin all right, Washington team and the Raiders and Charges and put them in the regular rotation. So my bad, all right, best bets, Mitch, What do you got? Alright, come on, man, get life. I'm going I had like eight games that I was interested picking, and I'm backing off a few of them. Um, I think I've landed with four. I'm gonna take the Ravens minus two in Indy, the Steelers giving two touchdowns in Dallas, the Cardinals minus four against the Dolphins, which may put me on the other side of Gary, and I'm doing it. It's Monday and night. Whatever, who cares. I'm gonna take the Patriots minus seven at the Jets. Um some of the bat like I was looking at the Giants and the Texans, I'm not gonna take teams that bad and the Broncos. I talked to myself out of even though I did talk a big game with my gut field on them earlier. Uh so I'm sticking with those four four for you. Gary, I'm gonna go four here. I'm gonna go h Texans giving six and a half at Jacksonville. I'm gonna go Miami getting the four at Arizona. I'll take Seattle minus three at Buffalo so three road teams there, and uh I will take the under in Bears Titans under forty six and a half. And I'll give that Tim Layden tweet. I I thought it was clever. Maybe no one else to like it. Laden On Breeze Layton, of course, the the great former sportsllustrat writer who who wrote the The Bres Sportsman piece back in two thousand. I don't know was that nine something like that, but laden sweet was always worth remembering that James Andrews put a whole tackle box full of anchors in that shoulder fifteen years ago. And it's pretty amazing it's still works at all. Even if it doesn't work all that well, sometimes it works well enough to get them like twenty five points every week, at least twenty points every week. That's what's crazy. I mean, I've never seen a player get more maligned when the team scores. They scored upper twenties, lower thirties every week. I got five for you Chiefs minus ten and a half lay it enroll every week with Mahomes Ravens minus two at the Colts, Seahawks, minus three at the Bells, Steelers, minus fourteen at the Cowboys, over fifty one with those Saints, and Drew Brees against Tom Brady and the Bucks. Alright, that wraps up Week nine. In the end, fl good luck with your wagers hopefully, uh we have a president when we talk to you next week on Thursday. Enjoy the games and uh. That wraps up this episode of the mm QB Gambling Podcast. Take care and we'll see you next week. Good luck with your bets.

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