Handicapping NFL Week 4: Baker's Browns vs. Dak in Dallas, Patriots as Big Underdogs | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Oct 2, 2020, 8:00 AM

Jimmy, Mitch and Gary run down all the Week 4 matchups, including the upstart Browns traveling to the not-as-upstart Cowboys, the Patriots getting +7 for the first time in forever, what to make of the Foles-led Bears, and much more.

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Welcome everyone to the mm QB Gambling Podcast, Week four in the NFL. I am Jimmy Trainett, joined by my co host Mitch Goldich and Gary Grambling. We uh, the records were good for week two Week three. My best bets were two and two. Gary, how did you do in week three? Two and three? C? C student? Last week? Mitch, what was your best bet record in Week three? I got off to a rough start. I was oh and three, and then I did win my best bets. I I had the Packers and Chiefs winning outright and covering the spread, and they both did so. I recovered a little on the primetime games. But Tom, Mitch, the record two and three, yeah, two and three. Week for me and Gary was two and three, yeah, two and three. I mean, look, I I have I have no excuse. I will say. I love betting totals. I'm just backing off totals for a little while. It's seriously, it's uh. I was sitting there watching that Rams Bills game and and the first half was going and you know, exactly as planned. It's like, Okay, you got the Rams, sustained offense, you got the Bills got some big plays. Now, they'll sort of pull it back and we'll be under here and no, they just the bills just pressed down in the gas, rams pressed down on the gas. All of a sudden, there's a you know, fifty points being put up in the second half. And what we'll go through all the lines and you'll see how how high these totals are. It's pretty crazy. Let's get it rolling. We start on Sunday at one o'clock with the Seahawks, about a team playing no defense this year, they visit the Dolphins. The Seahawks are six and a half point favorites. The total is fifty three and a half. Gary. The one reason I would back off the Seahawks, and this one is their offense is operating at a level of efficiency that is, it's sustainable for no one. I mean, it doesn't matter or how good you think Russell Wilson is, no one is as good. They're nine for nine in the reds. They have a hundred eleven points and they have one field goal through three games. That's absurd. Uh, it's just as good as they are. It can't keep up this way. Uh, that's it. They'll put up a lot of points on the Dolphins. Uh does Fitzpatrick sort of hang around to get the back door covering this one? I think that's that's very much within the realm of possibility. Uh, you know, no Jamal Adams in this one. That already potentially league worse Seahawks defense is uh, perhaps even worse than that might be a CFL worst defense if if they tried to play up there. Mitch Gary, You're right, it's not sustainable. But they also they should have had another touchdown last week the DK Metcalf play that ended up being a touchback. Uh fumbled out the back of the end zone when he didn't run it all the way in. Um, I'm just doing it. I'm taking the Seahawks. I like them. Uh, they are you know, you're right, not sustainable, but they're still scoring a ton of so they can score on anyone. They are giving up more points than I expected, certainly coming into the season. But I just think they're that good. Miami is not gonna be able to keep up with them in a shootout. You know, we saw them in prime time. I think they put up thirty one Fitzpatrick against the Jacksonville defense on a Thursday night. But uh, you know, Seattle is to me entering that territory where they're good enough that I expect them to beat bad teams by a touchdown, and I just think they're gonna be able to score it will. You're right, the back door cover is a bit of a concern, but I just think they're that much better and I'm not too concerned about Miami this year based on what we've seen from the first three weeks. So you know, this is a line. Uh, it would have been tougher if it was like seven and a half, which maybe I would have expected it to be, But under a touchdown, I'm fine taking Seattle here. It's not the best bet for me, but I do like the Sea Hall. It's not the best bet because you're giving six and a half points on the road cone cross country, um, but I do like the Seahoaks here. You know, I disagree with Gary a little bit in terms of listen level may not be sustainable, but the Seahoaks are a thirty thirty thirty five points a game offense. It seems like when Russell Wilson is playing like this, and I don't think there's any reason to expect him to um now play like this on Sunday against the you know, bad Dolphins team. So I lean on the Seahawks and this one, even though you are laying almost a touchdown on the road. Next game is in Washington, the Ravens face the football team. The Ravens come in as thirteen point favorites after the loss of the Chiefs. The total here is forty five and a half. Mitch, Yeah, you're talking about laying a touchdown on the road and now onto a game where teams laying two touchdowns on the road. I'm going to stay away from making this best bet, but I actually do really like Baltimore here. Uh, It's just it's a little much for me to best bet it. But I really think the Ravens are gonna be out to not just win, but make a real statement. Uh. They want to be viewed as one of those top teams in the NFL, and everyone viewed them like that until they got beat down by the Chiefs, particularly in the first half last week. I think people still look at them that way and expect them to be a force in the a f C. But I just think this is the kind of game they're gonna look at and they're gonna want to make a statement and not just win, but win by a lot. Um. Washington is a team that coming into the season pretty much everyone had them as the thirty feet best team in the league. And then, you know, if people got excited, they beat Philly and Philly's now look at them, oh two and one, and they were also without uh, you know, more than half of their offensive line in that game. Um, so it's possibly overrated them a little bit. And then they also they're not gonna have Chase Young this week. I'm pretty sure he's going to be out with a groin injury. We saw Washington definitely felt his absence in the second half last week once he came out of that game. So yeah, just it wouldn't surprise me to see Baltimore get up early and then just run the ball like they do and and stay ahead and keep adding to it on the scoreboard. Yeah, Raymonds lean numbers a little bit too big for me, especially. I mean that I don't know what they call Washington's field these days, but that that turf there is atrocious. It just sort of leads to ugly football. So I wonder if we just sort of get a messy game here and look what the Chiefs did Monday night, just putting a thousand defenders in the box and just I mean they defended Lamar like teams haven't defended Lamar more than a year. And it worked. And now you're gonna see other teams do that. And you know, do the Ravens have some whatever rust or whatever you wanna call it to kick off at this point before u before they really start to start cooking again here? But uh, lean Ravens, that number is just a little too big for me. I love the Ravens. This has three written all over it. Uh. Mitch brought up Chase Young. The Redskins were in that game with the with the Browns last week and then Trace Young got hurt, went out and everything fell apart from them on defense. So uh, they're not going to be able to stop the Ravens at all on Sunday, and um ed in that loss to the Chiefs. I think Baltimore here runs it up. There's already rumblings about Dwayne Haskins. He is not the answer. So uh, this one here is like I said, this guy, this hasty ten forty three written all over and I love the Ravens in this one We're now three for three on you saying the former name of the team by accident, all three weeks you fit on the podcast. It's gonna be hard, alright. The next game is in Dallas. The Cowboys are four and a half point favorites against the Browns. Big total here, fifty six Gary. Yeah, those those two and one Browns. I think people might be getting a little bit carried away with the Browns here and and not as carried away as we were two summers ago when they were on the cover of Sports illustrating as a Super Bowl team. But you look at him right now, obviously it's it's a different offense. It's it's uh, you know, it's it's Baker Mayfield. Is Kirk Cousins east. I guess he'd be slightly east of Kirk Cousins. Uh. It's that type of style. They have seven takeaways right now. That's not something that's gonna sustain itself. That's kind of a matter of playing some bad teams already this year. Uh. I just don't think they are going to take advantage of the Cowboys secondary the way that you see, you know, the teams do it. I don't think this is all a sudden the game or O'Dell has uh two D twenty yards receiving, and they just roll up these monster numbers and Baker throws for four hundred. I don't think that's them. I do think they are questionable on this Cleveland defense. Uh They're not good at the lineback and corps. They're not good at the safety spots. You know, could Myles Garrett take over, sure? But I think the Cowboys at home, They're going to roll up some big offensive numbers here, and I just don't think the Browns can keep up with them at this point. And you know, people sort of people look at the Cowboys and and their one win going to uh Atlanta, or you know, is that fluke gone? So I kick all that stuff. They had four fumbles and they a foil uh fake punt which they foiled themselves the punter one hoped to throw. They did that in the first quarter of that game. If you take away that first quarter, they beat the Falcons quite easily. We saw what they did at Seattle last week, going punch for punch with the uh the Seahawks here, even in a game that was relatively swoppy for Dak Prescott. I just think the Cowboys are still a quality team. I don't think the Browns are quite there. And the Cowboys are always a little bit better at home than they are on the road anyway, especially they have the biggest crowds right who I mean, who knows how much that matters, but they are playing in a packed Jerry World Stadium, and the Cowboys crowd is so big that Major League Baseball decided to have fans in the building in Texas for the playoffs. I don't know, maybe we shouldn't get into all that, but anyway, I actually I like the Browns here. Uh why not? You know, obviously Week one was really bad against Baltimore, but I've been impressed by what I've seen from them in their two wins since I know it was the Bengals in Washington. But they're scoring uh you know, thirty fo thirty five points in those games. Uh, this game also has a high total up around fifty six. And you know Dallas has given up points to um and and yeah, Gary, I'm I'm with you. In people want to talk about the record Dallas being one and two and being lucky to have that one win, but they also you talked about the Seattle game. They also hung with the Rams in week one, so it is, you know, it's a little tough to look at Dallas. Uh and and uh, you know, look at the record like it is with a lot of teams this early in the season. But I don't know, I just I think the Cowboys are beat up in a lot of spots, as we've talked about. And you know, I was looking at the numbers last week. Zeke only round the ball. He ran at fourteen times for thirty four yards, dacked through at fifty seven times. So you know, I'm just a little worried about, um, you know, the health and the offensive line and just what that does to their philosophy and how balance they're gonna be on offense. Um I did actually I picked the Browns to win the game outright, and the MMQB staff picks I was the only one to do that. Sometimes that's you know, you gotta take chances. He's trying to win the whole thing. So he was feeling myself a little bit. But but you know, this game is close enough to a toss up, and uh, I think I know they're going on the road. You guys know, I love road teams four and a half points they can cover plus four and a half. Give me the Browns here, yeah, I mean, I don't have a field for this game. I would lean Cowboys, but I can't figure the Browns out, so I'm staying away from their game. You know, the Browns are a weird team because everyone talks about Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield. But like this team has Nick Chubb and Green Hunt, they should be running on every single down, So it's a weird team. I can't I can't get a field for them, So that's a stay away game from me. The next game is in Detroit. Lions coming off a big win in Arizona, they host the Saints New Orleans, a four point favorite in Detroit. The total here a big one again, fifty four. Mitch, Yeah, this one is a tough one. I mean, the topic of Drew Brees in his demise is has been talked to death, uh in so many places. I'm sure everyone listening to this podcast has already read multiple articles or listened to multiple other podcasts about the demise of Drew Brees this season. I do think a lot of that is Michael Thomas and his absence, and so part of me I kind of want to stay away until we know more about his status because I do think that makes a big difference. Uh. You guys know how I feel about the Detroit Lions. Uh. And I was very much wrong last week when I made the Cardinals covering its Lions my top bed of the week, and then that did not go so well. We mentioned my slow start on Sunday. Um. I don't know. I lean Saints here just because I don't love the idea of, you know, putting any faith in Detroit. But I do want to wait in here a little more on the injury. So it's probably a stay away for now. Ry. Yeah, bulletin board material for my lions there. Uh. I like the lines and this one. I like them getting points at home pretty much anytime they play at home. Obviously we don't know exactly with the home field advantage is at this point this year. Uh. I really like the under on this one. I the Lions that they play so much coverage as opposed to rushing in the passer because they just don't have pass rushers. I think that adds up to you just Drew Brees thinking and dunking play after play after play. Uh. That said, I'm not sure if the Saints put up a ton of points anyway, even with some sustained offense here. I think this one is probably pretty nasty, lower scoring the people think it would be. But like I said, I'm being a coward this week and backing off all totals. It's funny. I I like the over here. Um, you know, it's funny. Everyone's on, you know, down in the same offense. They scored thirty last week twenty four the week before, and what do they put up in their open at thirty four? I don't you know. You can say what you want about Breese. They still score points. So I like the over in this one a lot. I think this is an up and down the field kind of game. You know, it's crazy if you watch the Lions closely, which why would you, But Adrian Peterson looks as good as ever. It's crazy. He still runs hard and gets that offense moving. So I like there in that game. Despite what my colleague Gary says, I will say, in your defense, in your defense, any Matthew Stafford was not sharp for most of that game last Sunday, and they still put up They still put up the numbers. They used the tight ends very well in that game. Uh In the Saints defense thinks, so I think the Lions will put up points. I think the Saints will put up points in that game. Next games in Chicago, the Nick Falls era is underway. Tropisky to the bench. Cults, though, come in as two and a half point favorites against the Bears a low total here of forty three. We go to Gary. I know Coults are bummed out. They missed out on the Tropisky era here, Uh, Folds gives them. It gives the Bears some semblance of a passing offense where you can actually call a play and trust the ball is going to come out of his hand and just be in the general vicinity of where you're supposed to go. That said, he puts the ball in danger. A ton he puts. He makes a lot of bad decisions. Uh. He's going into the team where obviously the head coach knows him as well as anyone. And we've seen this Colds defense. Yes, level of competition not great so far, but the Vikings have put up numbers against other defenses they did not against the Cold They got they got hammered by the Colds. I mean this, this is a I know this sounds like a hot take. I think this Colts defense is better than the Bears defense at this point. I think people are sort of still sort of hung up on some of the star power in Chicago's defense, what they did in twenty eighteen. I don't think they've been near that level, uh last year or this year. So I like the Colts a lot in this one. The Folds thing through a bit of a wrench into my plans, but I'm still going with it, especially since the line is under a field goal. Uh. Soldier Field always unpleasant to play at, but uh uh, you know it's if the lines is low. But um, I'm just I'm righting the coal Town. I think they're still underappreciated. If Philip Rivers doesn't make two bone headed decisions in Jacksonville and they win that game by seven or ten points like they should have, We're all sitting here talking about the Colts is one of the you know, one of the surging teams, and we would say surging. That's the kind of vocabulary we have here. So I don't think I would be caring. But that's fine. We've the Colts, the Lions, the Vikings. There are teams that we've we just love talking about this here. Now, I I lean Bears here. Um again, I don't want to pretend that putting falls in for Trabinsky fixes everything, because obviously it doesn't. But I do feel more confident taking them with him in there than Travisky. Um. You know, you know I'm down in the Colts and and you went through what what they've done this here, and I just, uh, you know, I'm just I'm not ready to take the Cults. I'm just not gonna do it. Uh. The you know, it's not a best bet for me, because I would want a best bet either of these teams, But the line under a field goal here. Um, you know, the Bears have been in close games. They found a way to win close games. Some of it's been a little lucky. That drop in Detroit in week one, and then you know, I want to say all but a big comeback last week. Um, I don't know. I just I have a little more faith in the Bears this week. And so in a game I don't plan on watching too much of, I will lean Chicago. I like the over forty three here. I think this is one of those games where you're gonna get it. This has the makings of just one of those we you know, Philip Rivers in in uh in Chicago has the makings of a pick six somewhere along the line in this game, QB fumble. You know Nick Foles is you get more pick six is maybe with true Bisky, but Nick's Nick Foles is capable of some bad, bad throws. I think you get a defensive touchdown. Maybe special teams. I think the teams move the ball a little bit. You know, the Bears now should be able to not be completely inept. So I don't think um forty three here would be hard to go over. So I like the over in that one. The next game is in Carolina Panthers, coming off their first one of the season against the Chargers last week, they welcome in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals come in as three point road favorites. The total here is fifty one. Mitch, I will be brief here and just say that I love the Cardinals in this game. You guys know, I really liked them last week and hyped him up, and we saw what that did. But I just think if these two teams played a week ago, the line would have been seven points. And then the Cardinals go out and they lose their first game of the year. Kyler throws three picks. People are now down on them. I do want to hear the DeAndre Hopkins injury is definitely a concern, and I want to make sure he's playing and he's at full health. But the other injury concerned, Christian McCaffrey, is out, and that's an even bigger deal than DeAndre Hopkins being out. I know that they won last week, but they were going up against a rookie quarterback, and you know, you had to figure the Panthers, uh, you know they weren't gonna go like one in fifteen this year. They were gonna win some games along the way. So I'm not that concerned. I think this line is overreacting a little bit to what we saw from both of these teams last week. And I think if you're talking about true talent levels, I definitely like Arizona to cover a three point spread here. So I love this game. I'm all over it for for Arizona here. Yeah, I'm big on Arizona here as well. For everything you just said, I watched a lot of Panther Charger game last week. The Panthers offense is just inapt um. They missed McCaffrey, They don't have a lot of weapons, And this is a classic case of you know, Arizona loses, everyone jumps off the manwagon, you're on the road given a field goal. I think that's a very nice line if that Cardinal offense is pretty spectacular and the Panthers defense is not set up to stop it. Gary. Yeah. The other thing I'll say is, uh, you know, I think with Kyler this year, you're gonna see see some teams that do sort of disguise coverages that do sort of uh you know, some more advanced stuff with their secondary and and Detroit does do some of that because again they just they gave up on rushing the pass her. I think teams that do that are going to fare better against Kyler than teams who just play a little more vanilla. And that's kind of what you get from Carolina at this point with so many young guys in there, So uh, this is a this is a good matchup for Arizona. You got might have you guys might have convinced me to make this one the best bet. Oh, I get that. I'm glad we could do that alright. The next game is in Cincinnati, the Bengals coming off their tie with the Eagles, giving a field goal to the incoming Jaguars. Total here is forty nine Gary. Yeah. I think both teams are just abominable. I just think they're both are really bad. I will say Jaguars with the extra rest, Uh, you know that they're I should have pulled up some Jaguars Thursday Night numbers because it seems like whenever they're on Thursday Night, they just, uh it's a total dud. But uh, I could see them going into Cincinnati and and winning this one straight up. That's it. I don't know. Both teams just stink. Joe Burrow is great, but I mean the guy doesn't even you know, talking about quarterback, am I getting to the top of drop? There is no top of the drop because as soon as he takes a snap, he is immediately scrambling because no one is blocking in front of him. And uh, it's just it's just chaos with both these quarterbacks. Is gonna be chaos. Who's gonna make him more plays? I don't know. I'll lean Jaguars. How does that that's good match? Yeah, Bengals also coming off overtime, ten extra minutes of Joe Burrow and his team being on the field, that's a lot the emotional tolls seven days later. Um, and especially I mean Burrow is is just dropping back and throwing the ball fifty or sixty times a game. Uh, it's kind of it's incredible to watch. That's just it feels like that's what they're gonna do all season. I mean, he's in an environment to just like shatter rookie records for just like volume alone, just the amount that they're gonna have him throw if he keeps that up the whole season. Um. I picked the Jaguars to win straight up last Thursday and then was disappointed to see them come out flat. And I think I'm finally off them a little bit now. I think in that game they really showed some of the limitations they have on that team, and I kind of I like the Bengals here. Um, I just you know you're right, Uh, you know, can either of these teams stopped either one? Who knows sloppy, weird game, but just looking at the Jaguars defense, they have three sacks in three games. They've only forced two turnovers, which were those two Philip Rivers picks in Week one, so having forced turnover in either of the game since and I just think that, you know, they are less likely to get to Burrow and cause as much of a problem as some of the other defenses he's faced. And you know, I just think, I don't know, You're right, I like, I'm with you. It could be like a weird, sloppy game, and who knows, But I just think that against that Jaguars defense, like the Bengals are gonna be able to get their points, and I feel less confident that the Jags are gonna be able to get that many and keep up with them. So I like Cincinnati here. I have no feel for this game, um, but I do like watching Joe Burrow, so I'll be tuning in for that and not betting it at all that that game is movable force versus stoppable object. Who wins. The next game is the big game of the day on CBSD Chaves at home welcoming in the Patriots Kansas City seven point favorites total here is fifty three. I can't remember the last time saying the Patriots get a touchdown even on the road, but the Chiefs are seven point favorites total fifty three, Mitch might be one was the last time they had Jacoby Brissette in the lineup? No, Gary loves Jacoby Brissette, and they were actually they were probably favored when they had Anyway, give me the Chiefs here, and we're talking about this all the time. The Chiefs are so good. Uh, you know, I'm gonna keep picking them until proven otherwise. I know that. I guess you could say I was proven otherwise in Week two when they went to overtime against the Chargers and then still won the game. But I mean, we just watched them beat up the Ravens by two touchdowns, and you know, now it's the Patriots and it's just a touchdown. I assume they're gonna be the Patriots by a touchdown. I just think they're that good and if it's a touchdown or less, I'm taking it. I like Kansas City, Arry I am. I'm frantically trying to look up Patriots historical as an underdog. Yeah, if you want to look that up, I'll speak on this game. If it'll take they had they had that Garoppolo opener. They were nine in half point underdogs. But you have to go you have to go way back, you have to Uh that was that was a Cardinal they opened in Arizona with Garoppolo when Brady was suspended. Uh, and they won that game. They were nine and a half point underdogs of the Arizona Cardinals. They were they were we have a we have a scene of those that Carson Palmer Cardinals or was that yeah, right, that was still Carson Palmer that I believe that was. That was the twenty sixteen opener. There weren't nine and a half point underdogs to the John Skelton Cardinals. I know that they have a week seventeen game against the Texans in in two thousand nine season where they were seven and a half points that done. That sounds like it was just yeah, it sounds like a Meos games. They have a cult seven point underdogs the Colts on November two, two eight, So that was a that was a Peyton game. So there you go there. As far as what I think that game, Jimmy, you and I were talking about a little bit before the show. Uh it see, is like the only answer for the Chief's offense right now is can you dominate with your four man pass rush? Not many teams can do it. You saw the Chargers do it because they have Joey Bosa who sort of took over that game a little bit. And uh, I know Patriots will probably try it. Chasing Winnovich has sort of flashed this year, but I don't think he's quite at that level. I would lean Chiefs, uh short rest and I don't know it. Also, it just gets boring betting on the Chiefs all the time. That eight game Gary, that was the Matt Castle season, So that was Pig Manning versus Matt Castle. Oh you gotta go back even for a while. I can't. I'm back into that and six and I can't find a h a game where there were more than a six and a half point underdog. There's one person in the NFL who can maybe slow down because you're not gonna stop the Chiefs, but maybe something down. That's Belichick. But I just don't see it happening. I just don't think it's possible. There's just way. You know, it's funny, they have so many weapons sometimes you don't even you know that game, Um, on Monday night was going along and you didn't see Kelsey for a little bit. Then this. I mean, it's it's just unbelievable to watch them play, and you know, the Chiefs usually farewell against the Patriots. Did that. Of course, there was that big win early in the season a few years ago, which led to like someone asking Belichick after the game about Brady status, which it was like week three or ridiculous, But I like the Chiefs, you are letting the touchdown. My only slight concern would be maybe a slight letdown after a Monday night game against the Ravens. But you would think with the Patriots and Belichick coming in, that sort of cancels out any possibility of a letdown. Good Gary super Bowl thirty six was the last meaningful Brady start where they were getting a touchdown or more? Is that the first? That? No? No, that was that was the Rams one. That was the Rams upset, the first Brady Super Bowl here the fourteen point underdogs. That makes sense, all right, all right, next game on the board. We go to Sin City, the Bills crazy game against the Rams three, and oh visit the very very very banged up Las Vegas Raiders. Gary, Yeah, I want to take the Bills here a lot, and and until I was a terrible host because they did not give you the line of the tuttle. The Bills are three point road favorites. The total fifty two and a half. My apologies from interrupting go ahead because they are a mirror three point favorite. I really do like the Bills here. I won't best Benham honestly, Look, I I Josh Allen is the most entertaining man on the planet right now, with the style of football he's playing where uh, it's a lot of good right now. Sometimes it's really bad, but there's something interesting on every snap, and I'll just sit back and enjoy this one. But the way the Bills are going, and the way the Raiders are banged up, and uh the fact that look, Bill's defense had kind of an off week last week. Uh, you know, they gave a lot of points in the Rams. I think that also had a lot to do with Jared Golf. Look, I thought Jared Golf and Buffalo played as good a game as he has played in his career, at least the second half. I don't think that's something to you know, I don't think there's a problem with the Bill's defense. I don't think they're gonna all of a a sudden be a team that gives up three points every week, and obviously the man the offense is going so, uh, put some money down in the Bills, hitch. Yeah, Darren, I'm with you. Actually, I like the Bills and I like the over in this uh fifty two and a half. Um. I won't rehash everything you just said, but yeah, this is like, Uh, I know Jimmy hates NFL red zone, but this team is like a gift to NFL red zone because every week it's it's touchdowns, it's crazy plays, it's wild endings. You would say that because I almost tweeted about how much I hate the red zone on Sunday and I didn't, so I feel like, I know it's on your mind every Sunday. I did not need to see any plays from Jets cults at five o'clock in the afternoon when the culture up to twenty one three. Sorry. And I'm not just sucking up to red zone because Scott Hansen is h has joined the Octopus Club this year, which I do love. That's not why I'm sucking up to him. It's not. I'm long on the record as a fan of NFL red zone, but no, you know, let to steer things back to this game. Um yeah, I mean the Bills, like you said, their offense is clicking and the defense has not been as good as we've seen in previous years under Sean McDermott, so they're given up points. And I think the Raiders, We've talked about them. Their offense has looked very good at times this year, especially that Monday night game against the Saints, but their defense has been a little weaker. So I definitely like a lot of points in this game. And I do think the Bills are a better team. Um, you know they're traveling. You know that doesn't bother me at all, But I just I look at this game and it screams Bills win a high scoring one. So I'm happy to take both of those. I was on the Raiders last week. They burned me, and I'm staying away, far far away because of the injuries. They've got a lot on the offensive line and um in some other places, so I'm I'm weary of going anywhere near this game. Um, we got five more games left on the dot K and this is going to be sort of the lightning round. We don't have the three of us here, Mitch carrying myself. We don't have leans on any of these five games. So we'll go quick and we'll get through them here. Um, the first one is the Chargers visiting the Bucks and Tom Brady. The Bucks are seven point favorites. The total here is forty three. Mitch, anything you want to say, this is a total stay away from me. Um My my gut, says Lean Tampa. I do worry about them with Chris God went out. Um, but for me, Chargers games are just so weird in either direction that I'm happy to just uh not just like stay away from them, but stay away from the games entirely. Uh. This this game is like, of all the games on the board, this is the one I have the least feel on. Yeah, I love the Bucks. I do think the Bucks are among the NFL's elite already here, but like Mitch said, God went out, Scotty Miller is banged up. We'll see if he plays. Uh. And that, and you know we said earlier those Chargers edge rushers against these Bucks kind of questionable tackles here. I could see the Chargers ed Rushers ruining this game and just you know, hanging close and it ends up being a like a twenty seventeen win for the Bucks. The next game is the Vikings. Talk about a team not having it this year. They're in Houston to face the Texans. The Texans are four and a half point home favorite, big total here of fifty four Gary. It feels like the Texans are closer to getting right in than the Vikings at this point. It Texas at twenty one a half time against Pittsburgh and I was like, oh, man, here we go. It's it's Deshaun Watson is back. And then they just just did nothing in the second half, Steelers completely shutting them down. So I'd lean Texans here, but uh, tough to figure out which of these teams are gonna get it going here. Mitch, I'm with you. I agree with pretty much everything you just said. I still do have some hope for my Texans to turn things around. Uh, definitely more than the Vikings. Um, you know, the spread was a little bit higher than I'd like. I think it would be a different story if it was like two two and a half, but four and a half like a little much for me. The best beat hum, but I do I lean Texans here. Yeah, I mean you would think Texans minus four and a half at home against the Vikings would be a good play, But you know so much kids written about Deshaun Watson Bill Texas defense is not good, so I don't know. But the you know, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings they seem like a mess. So it's a tough game really too analyze here. The next game is the Giants. They go into h l A to face the Rams. The Rams are a huge favorite twelve and a half points total forty eight. Mitch, Yeah, this is one. I just think the spreads too high to touch it for me. Um. Obviously, I like the Rams here much better team, expect them to win, but just spread that high gives me too much concern, so to stay away from me here. I best bet the Giants last weekends forty niners. I I so I can't. I'm I'm legally obligated to back off this game, even though I do like them. Again, I I don't know what the Giants deal is with the home road splits, but they are thirteen and four against the spread on the road since the beginning of eighteen. It makes no sense, but that's just how they do it. There. They were so I know, I know this is the lightning round, but I have to search for the proper word, and it is surge. Uh No, it's not, it's it's they're they're just so problematically uh uncreative. Uh that that lost the forty Niners. I just I I have never really gotten a sense from an NFL team that, like there's just no offensive plan. It's just like, you know, it's like you're playing Madden when you're half asleep or something. You're just like picking random plaze. Uh. They just had no semblance of what they wanted to do out there, and that's why you end up getting your butt kicked by uh the forty Niners practice squad. But I back off this one, but I do lean giants with the big number. Yeah, listen, I don't know. I don't know how you bet the Giants in this. You know, I think the Rams can cover two touchdowns here pretty easily. Now the Rams are coming off of brutal loss across the country. They come back home, you know, who knows they're about a letdown. So that's why I have to stay away. But after what you've seen from the Giants, how do you expect them to keep up with the Rams? I just it's just not possible. Um. Speaking of teams in trouble, the Eagles visit the Niners and the line on that game is San fran minus seven total forty six. Garrett, that's crazy yet no, uh, no Bosa, Nick Mullins understanding for the forty Niners. Who would have thought this team would be giving a touchdown to the Eagles here? I like the Eagles. You just can't bet on him right now. Carson Wentz is uh, he's just a mess, and I don't know when he snaps out of it. I think he does at some point, but you can't bet on him right now. Yeah. I like to sprinkle and phrases throughout the podcast, like my Chiefs and my Texans, so that new listeners maybe don't know who my actual team is because I don't want to claim them here. Let's just say I do have a six one oh area code number. Um. Yeah, I mean they've been awful. Um. There's also there's so much injury news on the Niners. I mean, you talked about Mullins, but like George Kettle might come back where he moster might come back. I just think you'd want to know more about who's in the lineup before you can bet, especially with it being exactly on the number on seven. Um, you're right. I hold out hope that my Eagles can turn things around, but how can you possibly bet on them after what we've seen the last three weeks? So stay away, a happy stay away from here. It is a big stay away. I mean it's you know, it's tough because it's the Sunday Night game, so you want some action. If if I had to get some action in it, I would go with the under. But betting nunders this year is basically taking your life in your own hands. All right, My laptop is down to five, the battery's dying, so we're on the last game. Good timing, and is the Monday nighter. The Packers are giving a touchdown to the Falcons. Who you know, we could probably spend seven hours describing and talking about the Falcons. Two of the worst losses you've ever seen in your life, A huge total here of fifty six and a half. Mitch, that's funny. Last week I loved the Sunday Night game and the Monday night game. Best about them both this week? They're both relegated to the Lightning Round, and I don't want to touch either of them. Um. Spread feels a little bit high, and that's why I'm staying away. I mean, obviously you've got to be tempted to take Green Bay, especially if the line was under a touchdown there. Um, But I don't know the can the Falcons even lose by more than a touchdown. It feels like they have to have a lead and then blow it heartbreaking lee at the end. Uh, and then they'd only lose by you know, five points or less. Um. But this is one Monday Night football. Just just enjoy it. You don't have to have a bet on it. People like to, you know, chase their losses on Sunday or whatever and have some money on the only primetime game going on that night. But stay away. Just just enjoy the game. It'll be a fun one. Yeah. I mean, I would bet the Packers on Monday Night because you want action, but I don't have a ton of faith in it, just because the Falcons are just so unpredictable. But you know, Aaron Rodgers is playing so well that Falcons defense is so bad. Actually seven is probably probably should have put more thought onto this one and made the Packers a better pick because that defense is so bad and Aaron Rodgers is rejuvenated. But I'll go minus seven on Monday Night. But it's not the best bet game for me. Gary, I was gonna say, I actually would best bet the Falcons if Davante Adams is out. I don't think those Packers receivers are are necessarily matchup problems for for the Falcons outside of Adams. And you know, whatever you can be to my scheme, maybe, but uh, I think these teams are fairly evenly matched if you take Adams out of the equation. I don't think it's a bad matchup for the Falcons here. So if if, if Davante Adams is out, and especially if Julio is in, and this line, let's say it moves so like six or something, I would I would best bet the Falcons on this one Monday Night. Alright, that wraps up the analysis of the games. It's now time for the three of us to give you our best bets for Week four. Mitch, what do you got? All right? I had some I was thinking about let's just go with it. I've got six of them this week? Why not? Um Cardinals minus three and a half in Carolina, it's actually three, so you get a nice Oh that's right, Yeah, I'll take it. That may may come in handy Cardinals minus three at Carolina. UM Brown's getting four and a half in Dallas, Bengals minus three against the Jaguars, Seahawks minus six and a half in Miami, and then the Bills minus three in Vegas with the Bill's Raiders over fifty two and a half. A lot of action on that one. Gary, I came to the show with two. I added two more. These are total goober bets. I took four favorites, three of them on the road here, but uh, Colts at Chicago, Cowboys versus Cleveland. Uh. And then I added Cardinals at Carolina and Buffalo Bills. I'll do it. Why not? I talked him about Buffalo given the field goal at Las Vegas. So, Gary, and we have two games the same, and we're going head to head Cleveland Dallas. Well, we have three games the same. My first best bet is Arizona minus three. So that's the one we're all on. They got four others to make it a five pack Ravens minus thirteam blowing out the Washington football team Chiefs minus seven. Just watch Patrick Mahomes sit back and relax. Count your money over forty three and a half Colts Bears over fifty four and a half Saints Lions. So six from Mitch, five from me, and four for Gary who started out with two. So that's the sign of a true degenerate. We always see that goes from two to four in a matter of thirty minutes. And we are one to know this year in games where we all three of us best bet the same one. So normally I would say that it's a kiss of death, but we we possibly were onto something. We will all be wearing our Kyler Murray these on Sunday afternoon rooting for Arizona. That wraps up the Week four edition of the MMQB Gambling Podcast for Gary Grambling which gold the Chim Jimmy Training, Thanks for joining us to see you next week. Good luck with the wagers.

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