Jimmy, Mitch and Gary analyze the Week 17 lines, including whether the Patriots will go out on a high note, the Dolphins' chances of an upset in Buffalo, whether Chris-Mitch will carry on when the Bears host the Packers in a must-win, the ugly Sunday nighter between the Eagles and the Football Team and more.
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M Welcome everyone to the MM Could Be Gambling Podcast. Final week of the NFL regular season weeks seventeen. I'm one of your co host Jimmy Train had joined by Mitch Goldich and Gary Gramling as always as we wrap up the final week of the regular season and best bets. Last week, I was four and one, so that was nice. What did you guys do with your best bets? Mitch, I can never I can never tell when I have a bad week, if you know how I did and it's a bit, or if you truly don't know. I never know how either of you do. I barely know how Jimmy. Also, we have a Google doc where Gary and I take her putting into Jimmy's bets because he doesn't always let go behind that now. I put him in about five minutes ago, and I saw that I was fourteen and five over the last Jimmy, I went out four. It was a tough one, lowsome nut biters, and I picked my I do my best bets here, I do my super contest picks the guy I hadn't know in five weeks, and I started out this season so well, and then I have just fallen apart. Just I made a note last week on Twitter week that I was ahead was picking underdogs, and I was way behind my favorites. And I picked five favorites and I lost all five, and I lost all amazing. The only two games I remembered that I had picked was Buffalo because I had said they would kick to England's ask and they did, so I was happy I got that right. And I picked Indie, which I know Gary did as well. And twenty four seven you're thinking, let's put in the W column and then that's not what happened, and that was not fun. That was me. Actually, I was with, Yeah, you always want to find many frustrating losses, and that was a bad, bad, bad loss. I know Gary picked Cleveland. Yeah, I went three and two, and look, I'm not gonna I'm gonna spend twenty minutes on that Cleveland game like another loss of mine. Obviously, it's you know, look, everyone should have backed off that game once the once the Browns lost your entire position group. Uh is it is monumentally dumb that the NFL is making these teams play games after losing entire position groups. It's it's a complete lack of respect for how teams prepare for for NFL games. Uh. Again, I'll cut this short, but uh, it's one thing to have a rash of injuries at a position. It's another thing too, after a week of practice in preparation and putting your game plan forty eight hours for a kickoff, you lose an entire position group. You can't you can't function that way as an NFL team. So it's just so so dumb that they're forcing these games through. I disagree completely. So maybe i'll have you on the SI Media podcast. We can fight about this. But if you're not gonna like stay in your house and where your mask and stay six feet away from people, then you get what you deserve that we don't. We don't know it was that that it was. It was contact racing and it was basically one guy with a positives and who I mean, I don't know what b J. Goodson situation was. I mean, what what did is did his spouse go out and get it and bring it back or something like that? So I don't know. I think you dulous. Yeah, I mean, that's it all right. So here's the deal. Week seventeen, pretty much almost every game has something on the line with seating and getting into the playoffs. There's two games that mean nothing, which is Vikings and Lions, so we're not going to discuss that, and the Chiefs and Charges. Chiefs have home field wrapped up, so that game is completely meaningless. The Chiefs don't cover any games, as we saw again last week, so we're not going to discuss those two. The only other game that means nothing, but Gary and I sort of are into it a little bit is Jets Patriots. Patriots are three and a half point favorites against the Jets. The total is forty. I love the under in this game. I just the Patriots cannot score and the Jets are not exactly a juggernaut, so I love under forty here in this one. Gary, what do you like in this game? I like, I like the Patriots giving giving such a small number points here. Uh look, I mentioned last week Quentin Williams is out for the Jets. They're they're not as good upfront the Patriots. If they're not gonna fall behind, and you're not gonna fall behind by a huge amount to u to the Sam Donald offense here, They'll keep on running the ball. They'll they'll put up enough points. I mean, I'm with you, Jimmy. The total is too low for me to uh to bet the under here. But this is a low scoring game. I think the Patriots win it, uh pretty comfortably, maybe by two possessions here, maybe like a twenty to ten type of final here. UM. One trend that does come up leaguide trend uh when you have a team coming off three straight non covers against the team coming off back to back covers and uh the line is closed less than a field goal uh thirty eight and nine against the spread for the uh the team that has lost three straight against the spread. So a little bit convoluted there, but basically evenly matched teams, one in a bad streak, one on a good streak. The team on the bad streak tends to uh get not enough respect when it comes to line. I think that's the case. You think you think your trend that has two teams on different lengths of time leading into the game is a little bit convoluted. Is that one I'm hearing from you. It's it's look, it's not that common lot it is. It is a hot team against a against the cold team is basically what it bows sounded and look that that's what we say all the time. This is UH. This is These lines are about how the public are reacting to UH. To the two teams. I think there's an overreaction with the Patriots and and probably a little bit of a reaction with the Jets, who again beat a a team that was practice squad last week. I'll gladly take your ten prediction on that one, since I like the under right, Let's get into the rest of the schedule here that has UH a lot on the line. First game, Steelers go into Cleveland. Browns obviously need the games. Browns are ten point favorites because the Steelers are gonna play Mason Rudolph and bench Ben Roethlisberger for the finale of the regular season. So it's Brown's minus ten total forty two. Mitch, Yeah, you see the line plus ten and you worry maybe they're gonna have Duck Dodges back instead of Mason Rudolph. Seeing how high that spread is. There are so many games here that I'm I'm just off this week. I mean, listen, it's one thing, I actually, I mean, just Mason Rudolph. Ten points is a lot, But like the big questions. We don't know who else. I mean, they're gonna the Steelers. Of all the teams that have had complaints this year about COVID, they're a team that, you know, we've talked a lot about their schedule and how they their whole schedule got jerked around because of their opponents and things like that, so they basically didn't have a bye week. They're treating this like their first bye week of the season. I totally get it. Understandable. Um, if they hadn't expanded the playoffs, then it would be a fun race for the two seed and they wouldn't be able to um. But I just you know, it would be one thing if it was just the quarterback. We don't know who's gonna be out. I mean on the defense, they're already down to backups in a bunch of spots because we've talked about their injuries. But you would assume some of our other stars aren't gonna play, and without knowing, I just I don't know how yet. I don't know how you have a side my gut says to lean Steelers, because the Browns don't strike me as a team that's been blowing teams out. You know, even they've taken care of business against bad teams. And I guess you'd say maybe our Steelers a bad team given how they're playing and who's not going to be in the lineup. Um, but it it does seem like a lot to ask them to win to you know, I lean Steelers, but I can't. You can't actually bet that not knowing who's gonna be in the lineup for them beyond just the quarterback spot. Now. Also also Brown's facilities closed because because of COVID, So we'll see how it happens. The one thing I want to bring up historically because uh yeah, I mean obviously we really need to put a Bills fans in the place right now. Uh. I always remember back the the finale in two thousand four, when the Steelers went fifteen and one, meaningless week seventeen game, they went up to Buffalo. The Bills were playing for a chance to make the postseason. The Steelers had nothing to play for. Roethlisberger's mentioned, Tommy Maddox started, Willie Parker got his first career start in that game, and now Steelers were up there in one. So you know, we're talking fifteen years ago, but it is kind of a reminder that, uh, I don't know. Sometimes he's sometimes these franchises you kind of have it together, like the Steelers do relatively, and maybe the Browns do do not as much. I don't think that's too mean to say. Uh. Sometimes these things kind of uh work themselves out in a way you might not expect. Yeah, I can't. I can't bet games when there's benching. I just stay away from all these games like this with the Mason Rudolph playing and you don't know who's playing. I I don't. I don't go near it here or where it matters. So I have nothing to say about that game. Next game, Ravens minus thirteen in Cincinnati total forty four and a half. Gary. Yeah, look, I I'm not betting it. I would uh lean heavily towards the Ravens here. I do think the Ravens are one of the top five teams in football. Uh. And I think you've seen that over the last couple of weeks. And I think they're just you know, a Cincinnati and and uh and roll all over the Bengals here. I I you know, I just don't really see a scenario where the Bengals hang close in this one. The lines just a little bit obnoxious for me. Uh if it was if it was closer to ten, I jump on it in the second. But realistically, I think the Ravens need to go out or win like fourteen or something. Garry, you're talking about the historical comps and everyone has also brought up the one for this matchup Ravens Bengals a few years ago when Buffalo got into the playoffs on the final day of the season because of that miracle and then all the Bills fans were uh donating money to Andy Dalton's charity because they won that game. Um. Yeah, I think I feel the same way as you do about the game. Um. I mean, the Ravens are great right now. They need to win. They are not going to be messing around. Um. You know, the Bengals people are saying maybe they saved Zach Taylor's job with two wins in a row, but like you know, this game was seven three earlier in the year when Joe Burrow was playing and playing pretty well. Um, you've got to think the Ravens are gonna take care of business pretty easily. But thirteen is a big spread, and maybe it's a back to our cover. Maybe you know it's just like a sloppy ten point win. I don't know, but but I also I'm with the Eileen Ravens, but it's a little too high to actually bet it. I like the over in this one a lot. The Ravens could get it. Then I was in the Ravens are going to be in the in the thirties in this game. Game, so you're not asking for much from the Bengals. I like the over here. It's only forty four and a half, not a big total. Uh, next game, Cowboys minus three at the Giants total for both teams obviously need the game. Mitch, Yes, so I was. I was thinking about this game when Gary was given us his streak about or his stat about one hot team versus one cold team. And this is one where you know, the Giants like, I don't know if you want to say that they peaked early. Uh, that's not necessarily a classic trait for a five and ten team that finds itself a game out of the division lead in week seventeen. Um, but you know, but they kind of have. They've had three straight uh what i'd call uninspiring losses. To the Cardinals, Browns and Ravens, and I know some of that was Daniel Jones was hurt and then he's out of the lineup but then back, but not it feels like they just lost whatever mojo they had. Um. You know, they don't seem like the team that went into Seattle and and stunned everyone winning that game a few weeks ago. And then meanwhile the Cowboys, I thought they were encouraging last week. Um. I mean the Eagles, we know about them, uh so not playing the best opponent, but they were playing well. I know it was the game swung a lot after Fletcher Cox was out, but they you know, they took advantage that Eagle secondary. And I just think Dallas looks much better there. Uh their offensive line, and plenty of teams have had problems on the offensive line this year, but um some of their guys went down really early in the season. It does seem like their backup offensive line have improved those guys that are in there. Um So, you know, I just look at this and it's like two teams going in totally opposite directions. On paper, everything says it's easy expect Alice to keep winning, But we just we see so many times in the NFL where there's a trend and hot team plays badly, a cold team plays well and stunts. But I think I'm just gonna go with how they're playing and just the eyeball test the last couple of weeks, I think the Cowboys look better. I think they're gonna win this game. It's only a three point spread, so I'm gonna pick them here. Yeah, I want a reason to pick the Giants here. Uh, but on I mean, we talked about their their bad record at home all the time. Uh, Daniel Joe. If Daniel Jones can't move, he's just not very good. Uh. Movement is such a big part of his game, and you've seen the last two weeks he just uh he's not the same quarterback right now. So there's no real reason, you know, the giant zone of the pass rush to take advantage of the Cowboys issues upfront. Uh, It's it's just it's a bad match up here for the Giants. You know. All that said, if if a team was going to find a way to lose this game, it probably is the Dallas Cowboys. But uh, I would probably reluctantly lean Dallas on this one, but ultimately stay away. I don't have a lean either side or I I don't trust either of these two teams. Let's all there is to it. And you know, for a week seventeen I anything can happened. I just I don't trust either team to to be able to make a pick in that game. The next game, I'm not. I guess the Bucks playing for seating. Here there's six point favorites at home against the Falcons. The total is fifty and a half. I would assume Tampa is just in a seating situation if the line is six here. Gary, Yeah, that's a that's a good question. I should have looked that up for the show. I just sort of they were not they were. Yeah. I went on NFL dot com and looked up the scenarios and the Bucks are not mentioned at all. But so I don't know. I think they can't be locked into a three or four seed I would assume. But no, the Saints won the division, so they're gonna likely be the five. And the five actually matters a lot this year because it means they're going to play the NFC East champ. So in some years you might not necessarily care after the five or six. They definitely want the five. I think they are likely to get it, but they might need some help or it might take a lot I think. I mean, I don't wanna speak for you, guys. I expect them to win the game. I mean, I don't think they're locked into the five seed. Though the Rams are a game behind. Bucks are tending five. Rams are nine and six, so it's Tampa minus six against the Falcons. Total is fifty and a half. So that's the situation that Gary, Yeah, this is a this is a win, and they get the five seed. Now that I read about it from our friends from a draft king, uh yeah, I'll probably stay away from the line. I would lean Bucks here, but I like the over in this one. I think the Bucks are sort of in a spot offensively where they are sort of getting right and they're trying to prove that they're right against these just atrocious defenses, whether it was the Lions last week or or the Falcons, who aren't nearly as bad as the lines but are still not good defensively. So I think they take the opportunity to go up there and and roll up some points. Atlanta gets, you know, warm weather game here they probably keep up a little bit. So, uh, totals only fifty. I like the over in this one, and I'd probably back away on the side. Ah, this is a rare one for me. You guys know, I almost always talked about sides and rarely about totals. I also had circled the over fifty here in this matchup. I'm with you, Gary. Um. So, yeah, there's a these teams are playing for the second time in three weeks. And remember the Falcons dominated them in the first half, and then the Bucks stormed back in the second half and basically never turned it off again. I saw people taking stats like, well, if you take the second half of Tampa against Atlanta and then the first half of Tampa against Detroit, they like set all kinds of records for like the greatest offensive game of all time. Um. And it basically looked and felt that way watching the games. UM. Yeah, I mean, I just think that the Bucks are clicking right now. And yeah, you mentioned the weather. It might be their last warm weather game that they get. Um, because the road to the playoffs is gonna go through Green Bay and wherever else. I guess you know, if they end up in New Orleans on the line. Who knows that's a dome, But um, yeah, it just feels like they're gonna come out and again in the first half, try to repeat what happened last week with Brady getting them out to a big lead early and then pull some starters once they have things in the bag. I do kind of like the Bucks to cover. Um. I know, you know, the Falcons have lost a few games in a row, but they've been close, They've been hanging with teams. They also the uh Saints by five, Charters by three, Bucks by four, Chiefs by three, and that's kind of a tough stretch. Um, But it just feels like, you know, earlier in the season, people are talking about Rahey Morris maybe keeping that job on a long term basis, and I just think a lot of that has cooled off, and it feels like here's a team that you know, is playing for a lot against a team that their season is basically over. And I think we could see guys out for the Falcons as well. And um, you know, I like the Bucks to cover, but I feel more strongly about the over. I kind of like them both, But if if I picked one of them, I like the over fifty here. I like the Bucks here. I just think if they need it, Brady will go all out. And I think the Falcons after that loss to the Chiefs last week, I think that was sort of their last hurrah. They laid it all on the line and then obviously a kick right to the uh wherever stomach sack, whatever you want to say, and fat loss. Next game, Dolphins, coming off the most insane win of the entire season by any team, go into Buffalo. The Bills are a point and a half favorite. The total is forty four and a half. Now Miami is alive. Buffalo may rest some starters. I think they're still deciding on that, so I don't know what the situation is. So I there's weird stuff here with Buffalo. They because I think they're locked in. So um again, I don't like those games, Mitch, Yeah, I'm with you. I mean, I don't think they're locked in. I think Buffalo and Pittsburgh are going to be the two and the three in some order, and they're both potentially resting guys this week, which is a little strange. Um. I don't know. I mean, if they played straight up, I would like the Bills here. You know, it's funny. It almost feels like you could get good value betting Dolphins plus one and a half because the Dolphins certainly have a chance to cover if they played straight up. And also you might get this gift if Buffalo does rest guys and maybe the line moves a ton of Sunday and you've got them locked in. But that that strategy, to me, just feels a little too cute. Um you know, or other fund games coming. You don't have to You don't have to spend all your money betting on Week seventeen games where you don't know who's gonna play. I don't know. To me, I feel like the Bills are gonna try in this game. I just they struck me as that kind of franchise that doesn't take things for granted, like I think hearing them talk about it, they are excited to have the first division since the first sweep of the Patriots since so you look at what they have to play for, not just the two seed, but they could sweep the division six and oh they have a chance to tie the franchises all time best record at thirteen and three. And I think for some teams stuff like that matters more than others. And it feels like, given everything we've seen from the Bills last twenty years, that kind of stuff wouldn't matter. So part of me is tempted to say that they they will try, but like you know, again, there are so many games this week. There's just so much uncertainty. Um, you know, I think it's a stay away for me. Again. I'd like the dolphinto here. And again, we don't know for sure what the Bills are gonna do, and and we're projecting this point. I think the cold Beasley injury has to freak them out. They I mean, they potentially lost their their second most valuable receiver in a situation where they were playing him in a you know whatever it was at that point twenty eight point game in the fourth quarter. I think they're gonna sit some guys this week. And on top of that, Uh, even despite going back to tah and the four yards in a cloud of dust passing game that Miami uses with him, Uh, they are let me just spring in the number and to make sure I have a right over the last three years, eleven and two against the spread. Uh. In the second game against a team that beat them earlier in the season, so basically avenging in an earlier loss in the season. Uh, they're well coached. They get it right here when they played and it was a lifetime ago. But when they played the Bills down in Miami, the Bills end up running up a big fourth quarter after Byron Jones got hurt and Miami had has to play. I don't know if he's no nationally, he's certainly known locally down in Miami. Noah Ignogeny, who is the rookie corner down there is a He's a converted cornerback from from Auburn and they took in the first round. Uh, he is just uh not capable of playing the NFL right now, and everyone went after him this year. That was the first game he came into the game, and the Bills went after him, and they put up all those points in the fourth quarter and pulled away there. But other than that, I mean that game was kind of a slog Offensively, it was the kind of game that Dolphins wanted to play. I think you see that in this one, and I do think the Dolphins getting points again. I really think the Bills are gonna sit guys in this game after what happened with the cold easily. Yeah, I do too, So that's why I'm staying. I will make this statement right now and then you could bring it back to me in a few weeks. I think the Bills are gonna win the Super Bowl this year. Next game from from your Mouth to God's Ears and next it's all about getting hot at the right time. Packers minus speaking getting hot, Packers minus five in Chicago. The total is fifty two. Both teams need this game, Packers obviously to clinch home field throughout and Bears need it to get in Gary. Yeah. I I bet the under on their first matchup and end up going over when Aaron Rodgers went out and scored a thousand points in the first half and that was it. I will bet the under on this one again. I think fifty two is too high. I think historically niok At Rodgers against the Bears, he just doesn't put up huge numbers against them. I think you probably end up seeing this again. I mean, look, obviously it's Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers could go out any weekend and put up forty points on any defense. But I like the Bears at home on that crappy track on that crappy turf, holding teams in check. And the other thing is I mean, look, if anyone watched the Jaguars game last week Bears Jaguars, I hope you didn't, but if you watched it, you saw, you know, the Bears almost get a little bit reckless offensively. They they opened up the offense in a way that they just haven't when Matt Naggie has had Mitchell Drubisky that he just doesn't trust draw Whisky to do. And they opened it up because they were gonna beat the Jaguars no matter what they did. I mean, if Drubisky through seven interceptions, they were still gonna win that game by a touchdown. UH. In this game, I really really think you're gonna end up seeing UH a more timid Matt Naggie as a as a play caller, any more timid Mitchell Drobisky. As far as some of the risks he's taking, I don't even know if you'd call him risks on some of those throws he made in Jacksonville. They were just just reckless throws. I think that comes out. I think this ends up being the Bear is playing it UH very safe. Trying to keep it close, trying to keep it low scoring and win it late with their uh now super kicker Cairo Santos. But I really like the under in this one. Mitch. Yeah, Gary, I'm glad you spend so much time talking about Trabisky because I assumed that's what Jimmy was talking about when he said speaking of getting hot and then introduced the Packers Bears game. I just want to wish everyone out there. I hope you all had a merry Chris, Mitch. I just hope everyone enjoyed the holiday season. It's very very I waited my whole I didn't make up the pun. Chicago Bears Twitter account made up the pun several years ago. That's I just share it with the world. Very I waited my whole life for the NFL. I have a starting quarterback named Mitch, and then this is the experience that I got out of it. No, I am not a die hard Tropisky fan, though I did start him in fantasy this week and it did actually work out for me, believe it or not, Thank you Jaguars defense. Um. I like the Packers here. I mean, for all the obvious reasons I've been telling you guys for half the season. Now, at thought they were the best team in the NFC. I thought it before it was trendy, and now I think most people seem to agree with me. Um, although I guess there are still some Saints fans out there. Um. Matt Maggie. Since he took over there one and four against the Packers, they have mostly been close, except for that game earlier the season that Gary you mentioned. But I just think, you know, both teams need it, and look at it. There are a few games where I'm just gonna say, maybe it's because there are so few normal games. There are a couple, in particular, one work coming up, and I'm just gonna look at them and say, that's the better team. I'm picking them to win. It's nice and s It's Week seventeen. You know, it's the time of year the better teams need to rise and get ready for the playoffs. I like the Packers. I think they're much better than Bears. I I recognize what the Bears have done, turning their season around, probably saving Matt Aggie's job, possibly pushing into the playoffs. Um, but I just I like Green Bay. They're the better team. Here the lines under a touchdown. I think they can cover five points a division team they know well, they've played well against. I think they're gonna win the game. I like Green Bay here. I love the Packers here. They I don't buy into this bears so urge at all. They haven't played a real team since they lost to the Packers last four games Jaguars, Vikings, Texans, Lions. Sorry, don't buy it, don't buy Mitchell dropisky. I will gladly lay less than a touchdown with the Packers here. I don't get home road doesn't matter this year. Um. The Packers ride the hot hand that it's all about an home field advantage on the line. I think our Rodger is gonna come out and have a monster that this game could be over by half time. Next game, the Titans are alive. They're giving seven and a half points in Houston to the Texans. The total here is fifty six. Biggest one of the week. Mitch, Yeah, I'm actually I'm a little surprised this line is so high. I thought people would have been down on the Titans after last week. I was all prepared to say, well, I don't want to get down on them too much. I don't want to overreact to a game in the snow, and I know, you know, going in I thought they were the type of team that would be good in that environment, and then they just had a bad game. But that's one. It was just kind of a weird game on the road at night that weather. Or I'm tempted to just like throw that game out and say not to worry about it. But it looks like the odds bakers and betters have done the same thing here. I think if this, if the spread here was like six, I would like the Titans. Um. You know, people are gonna watching Derrick Henry needs two d and twenty three yards for that two thousand yards season, and you know, maybe they're just gonna feed him and come out and win this game, and he'll break off a couple of long ones. I don't know. I do expect them to win. But this spreads a little bit too high to mean the Texans. I mean, Deshaun Watson got hurt last week. He hurt his hand. It sounds like he is gonna play, um, but he just gets so little help from anyone else on that roster. Um, You've got J. J. Watt. Everyone saw his speech after the game. What he thinks of I guess the Texans effort this year. This This feels like a good line to me. You know, I want to say the Titans are gonna win going away here, but it spreads us a little bit too high. This is another one of those weeks seventeen games. I mean, I could easily see the Texans just like punting and quitting, or I could see this being a close game. I just I don't know. There's so many teams. I'm just like totally all over the map on and my beloved Houses and Texans who have fallen apart. I guess they're apparently one of them. Yeah, I'll back off. I mean, look, the Texans and the Jaguars are running neck and neck for just uh most embarrassingly run franchises in the NFL. I think the Texans might beat out the Jaguars when its all said and done. It's gonna be interesting. But uh, I mean, look the Shawn Watson factor. I mean, he can single handedly dragged them back into the games. We saw it twice against the Colts. So I will ultimately back off this one division rivals. I never like it when it's more than a touchdown here anyway. But I mean, yeah, you get the feeling the Titans might just run for you know, a million yards and and and run away with this one. Yeah, I don't. I don't like this game at all. I'm staying away from it. I don't trust that. I can't figure the Titans out at all, So, um, don't trust them enough here to cover on the road seven and a half next game, Colts, they need the game thirteen and a half point favorites at home after that disgusting loss to the Steelers. The total against the Jaguars, who come in forty nine and a Gary. Yeah, I'll just say this about the Colts last week, and I don't want to make excuses for him, but uh, that was the first time all season the Steelers actually like effectively through the ball down field, and no one's expecting it because he hadn't seen it from them all season, and all of a sudden, they uh, they did it, and they allowed Ben Roethlisberger to actually like get tackled and get hit and stuff like that, and it was just sort of a uh, it was just sort of a new approach there for the Steelers that they finally adopted but uh, I think the Colts blow him out. I probably not bet it. Uh. You wonder if the Jaguars, now that they've clinched the number one seed, while they actually try to win a game and maybe do stuff like not play Mike Glennon. But who knows what's going to happen. But I do think the Colts win this one comfortably. This was I think I'd still just have uh, you know, bad feeling from Week one when I thought this was the lock of the season, the Colts giving less than ten points in Jacksonville and they found a way to lose that game straight up and knocked me out of uh you know, knockout pools and all that stuff. But that was the highlight of my season on this pod. It t is the Cults money or the Jaguars money line in week one as a possibility and then having who can even remember that far. I've had so many losers since then. Um, and now they finally, uh this this feels like the game they've waited their whole season to get revenge on the Jaguars here. I don't know, Gary, you talked about glenn and they did. They already announced that Mike Glennan is going to start. I don't know if you hadn't seen that yet or if you were implying that they might pull him at some point. And yeah, do the old the old skadoo here. Yeah, I think we feel pretty much the same way here. I mean the I was thinking about the under forty nine and a half because what if the Jaguars only score like seven points here, ten points here? Um, I don't know, I mean, who knows? Um? Yeah, I just think fourteens too much for the Colts right now. They just said Anthony Costanzo is having uh season ending surgery, so he's out for this game and also obviously the playoffs if they make it. Um. But yeah, given what we saw last week, it's hard to uh put much faith in the Colts win buy more than two touchdowns. Yeah, I mean I want to pick the Colts because you know, I was on them last week, and usually after a loss like that, you know it's smart to go back to them instead of backing off. But you know, the two offensive lineman being out for the Colts, I think worries me a little bit here. Plus, I saw something that said that the um the Steelers felt like the Colts knew what plays they were calling in the first half, and then Roethlisberger started calling his own plays in the second half. So I don't know. If the Colts don't know what plays are coming, maybe their defense isn't as good. I don't know, but I'm staying away from this game. I just think it's Uh, it's thirteen and a half is very high, and you know the Jaguars, Uh, how can you expect any effort out of them? But again, thirteen and a half is high, So I should pick the Colts, but I'm not. Next game, Saints six and a half point favorites in Carolina total forty seven and a half. I don't think I have predicted a Panther's game right once the entire season. I know I bet Washington last week, and uh, of course that didn't work out. So Mitch, what do you got? I teased it earlier. I told you there are two games where I'm just gonna look at the team's very simply not think too much about it. Picked the better team. This is the other one. Just look at the Saints, Look at the Panthers. The Saints are better. Um I wanted to see. I was a little bit out on the Saints. I wanted to see them with Drew Brees back, and you know, they hung with the Chiefs and then lost that week. Uh. You know, I guess at first they had the Eagles game, which no, that was sorry, that was Taysom Hill, right, and then he came back against the Chiefs and that was close and they lost. Um but that was an encouraging game. And then this week with Camara running for six touchdowns. You know, I like the mojo they have right now. I just think they're better. And I still have some concerns about them. I don't think they're gonna be going to the super Bowl, but you know, I like their Their roster topped bottom both sides of the ball, we've talked about forever, is very good, as complete as anyone. I just think they're the better team. They need the game they're gonna win. Uh it's under a touchdown down. You know. The Panthers, they they beat Dwayne Haskins last year. It felt like they were losing some close games. They needed to get that one last win of the year to end on kind of a good doing. I think they got it last week. I think they're gonna lose here, and I like the Saints to cover. Yeah, I I like the Saints to uh you know, I do think they're working on getting right with Breeze back in the line, but all that stuff, and they are let's see the trend. Saints trend is twelve and two against the spread over the last two seasons against teams that allow more than two and fifty passing yards and game, which is bottom half of the league. So uh yeah, I think they go out there and put up their points and and and win this one, even though I do have much respect for the overachieving Carolina Panthers. Yeah, I like the Saints too that you know, they're still you know, the Bears beat the Packers. I think the Saints end up with that one seed, so they will be motivated. And that's what you're looking for in in Week seventeen is motivation. I like the Saints. They're less than a touchdown. Next game, Seahawks minus five and a half in San Francisco total forty six Gary. I look, I'd like San Francisco. I I think these division games familiar opponents. I think the forty Niners, uh don't have to do a whole lot of heavy lifting to to figure things out and go out there and have a good performance. You saw it in Arizona last week where I mean what Robert Sali did the Cliff Kingsberry should have been just Uh. I mean the league has to intervene and just started even the playing fields somehow for Cliff Kingsberry because I was embarrassing. Uh. As far as this game goes, I mean, look at just talent wise, the forty Niners defense, I don't think can hang with the Seahawks offense when it's all said and done. Uh, they just don't have enough cover. Guys. You don't have a pass rush bother rust that much. They're gonna blitz a lot. They're gonna take their their lives into their own hands there. And we saw it happened when they went up to Seattle and did that. So I'm not gonna best bet it, but I do like the forty Niners getting this many points in their own building or I guess that's not their own building, but not someone else's building, not not their opponent's building. Uh in uh in a division game here, Mitch, Yeah, it feels like they played five games in a row in Arizona right, and it might as well be their building by now, Um, Garrett, you're talking about evening the playing field with Robert Tello. You can do that by giving him Detroit's defense. Isn't that what we expect to happen, is that that'll uh that then we'll see how good he really is? Is that the plan for? Um? Yeah? I mean these teams always play close games. Remember last year they played the Sunday Night game in Week seventeen and it came down to literally a matter of inches at the end of the game. I also feel like it's tempting to pick the forty niners just because again, five and a half is a lot and you can see this coming down to a field goal either way. Um. But I just I don't want to best bet it. Um. You know, I have said all along, like the four owners. Yes, they've had some very impressive games. They haven't done it every single week this year, and so I should say, well, they did it last week. Now I should stay the course and keep betting against them, and eventually they're gonna lose one. But you know, I don't want to overreact, but I am a little bit afraid of them getting this many points. And these NFC West games, it's not just these two teams, it's every combination of teams like there, it's like one team beats another, A beats B, and B bat C, and C comes back and beats A, and they all play close, weird games, and it's so strange, um that I just want to like stay away from all of them. Um. So you know, I'm tempted to lean forty Niners, but I think at the end of the day, it's a stay away. Yeah. I I lean Seattle here because they need the game. The Niners, uh you know again, impressive last week against Arizona and now I think you know, season is over. I don't think they do it two weeks in a row. So I leaned Seattle here. Um. One game. I should have mentioned at the top that we I don't think we're going to discuss here because there's nothing on the line. Is is vague? Is Raiders Broncos though either of you have anything to say about that? I should have that's a no one's playing for anything in that one. I haven't said had anything to say about the Broncos. And long time now, my my my gut feeling is is Vegas goes out there and puts up a convincing wind to sort of finish the right way. But I would bet it minus two. You're gonna put your money on them, I'm gonna put my money on them. I'm not, but I would if Alright, the last two games and they're uh, they both have a lot on the line. The Rams no Jared Goff, still one and a half point favorites, though against Arizona there was no total I assume because of no Jared Goff. Let me double check because I do have the page up right here, and there is still no total as actually Arizona minus one, So we have Arizona minus one at the Rams, no Goff, no total on this one, So Gary what he got? Yeah, I mean, I don't know that total is gonna be fascinating because the Rams are just gonna try and win this game fourteen and thirteen, which you absolutely can do against his Cardinals offense right now, which has been just exposed as as an out of date embarrassment over the second of the season. Here, Uh, are you gonna bet on John Wolford? Probably not, so you know you'll ultimately back off. Uh. Look, it's this this helps no one. I would just not be surprised at all. I would I would not be surprised all the Rams just won this game out right, considering it's just such a massive coaching mismatch, which is what we saw last week down in Arizona when when the forty Honors went down, there was basically their practice squad and uh and and beat the Cardinals and all their you know, high pedigree, uh exciting air raid guys, if you're watching on YouTube, I did the air quotes with the with the air raid. It was. It was powerful stuff. But uh uh yeah, you don't bet it. But I think the Rams are gonna win this game. Mitch, Yeah, you mentioned no golf. We also don't know Kyler Murray might not play. Um. I think they're hopeful that he will, but we haven't seen that for sure yet. So it could be John Wolford against Chris Traveler, which is an unbelievable acutely matchup for a meaningful game, and that I believe that's alliance of American football versus a Canadian football league. If that's pictures are coming out. I've never heard of this dude, but there are pictures of him like shirtless and celebrating in the freezing cold Canadian winter holding the trophy very exciting. Uh, certainly be a memorable game that I would be glued to. Um. You know again, they expanded the playoffs. There are gonna be six games next week. The super Bowl is coming. You have plenty of opportunities to spend your money and bet on games where you know who's gonna play. I'm I'm staying away from all of us. I look forward to. I just want to enjoy the game route for whichever quarterback looks more fun out there. Uh, and just watch. I would probably I think I'm gonna pick the Rams to win the game in our famous MMQB straight up pick them, which is always a close, intense race. Um. But I mean, come on, I'm not going to bet on this game. Yeah, I mean, Mitch summed it up for me. A good rule to have, even if you're at the gender gambler, don't bet the game when you don't know who the quarterbacks are. So that's sort of my philosophy on this one. The last game Sunday night, NBC flexed in the Washington football team at Philly. Now Washington. Let me double check this line because it seems yep. Washington minus one and a half total forty three and a half. Mitch oh Man, Um, so I uh, I really believed. I thought the Eagles were gonna win last week and that this game would be for the NFC East title. I was talking for weeks and weeks about how this game would be flexed to Sunday night, and then I did not think they would actually flex it anyway, even though it means nothing to Philly. Um, you have to lean Washington here. I mean that that defensive line is terrifying. We saw it wee one. Feels like this season as a high number of rematches that went from Week one to Week seventeen. Uh, feels like a lifetime ago. We saw this game. The story of that game was Washington's defensive line, uh and chasing then Parson Wentz and making life tough on him, and the Eagles offensive line has only gotten more beaten up and battered since then. I mean, this game is just gonna be Jalen Hurts running for his life all day. Uh, China scramble and make plays again. Talking about quarterbacks, we don't know they released Dwayne Haskins. I think Washington is hoping that Alex Smith is going to be healthy enough to start. Otherwise it's gonna be Taylor heinuchy. Um, maybe you like the under in this game. I don't know. Um, it also feels as an Eagles fan, I can say this feels like exactly the kind of game the Eagles would win and just screw up their draft position. Uh. I do think some of the players are gonna be playing hard for Doug Peterson. I think it seems like the uh Rosemond Lurie might be out on Doug and a lot of the fans are out on Doug. I do think some of the players have been there a while still like him. Um, So I could see them showing up and playing hard. But I mean, if I take off my Eagles hat here and look at this objectively, how can you not like the football team to win this game? Uh? In which case this spreads only a point and a half, I think you'd have to pick them and no, I I love the under in this one. I'm projecting a two to two tie when it's all said and done. Uh, Look, that would give the division to Washington. I think I'd have to That's actually that would that would that because they're their game up right now, right, So two to two tie, and that's how the the NFC East is clinched. I think that would be very fitting the team with no name and no quarterback uh ties their way into the playoffs, and also forcing the Eagles fans to extend the season by an extra ten minutes would also be very no. I'm sorry. Washington and Dallas are tied. So if Dallas wins against the Giants earlier in the day, then uh, Washington would have to win. If the Giants win, then a tie would get Washington in. And if the Giants and Cowboys tie, I think a tie would get Washington in because they would then there would be three different teams this so so I'll say that if if Giants win, I'll go to too for the Sunday night game. If if Dallas wins, I'll say four to uh football team. When said and done, I mean, look, I I've said this. I am personally insulted by what Washington does offensively. It's just it's it's an absurd way to play football in twenty twenty. They just uh, they refuse to try to move the ball and score points, and then they just trusted you know, Chase Chase Young is gonna get a strip sack and we're gonna scoop it up and score a touchdown. Look, Alex Smith is probably slightly less mistake pron than Dwayne Haskins. I think people are overlooking the fact that Alex Smith has thrown some of the worst interceptions of the season in his starts. But you know, he he does not have the Dwyne Haskins reputation and therefore doesn't get sort of busted on the same way. But uh, does he inspire the defense to score defensive touchdowns? Maybe? Whatever? I do think you just see both teams just playing to punt. Uh football team certainly will I think the Eagles this week considering like you said, Mitch, it's gonna be tough to keep Jalen Hurts clean. Yet Hurts do sort of his his tribute to Carson Wentz with some of those turnovers last week, and they probably want to rain them in at this point and just sort of get out of this one. And again, I think it's just a low scoring game. I think it's going to be painful to watch, and I think it's the game that we all deserve to wrap up regular season here one of those turnovers was a bad call. I will also say, uh, big thing that was not on my radar but is now. Washington has a zero point differential on the season, So very big to see if they win or not, because because we're gonna have all these fun facts about how bad the NFC East was this year that will be around forever, and whether or not they have a team with a positive point differential that is also on the line with the two to two tie will be even more fitting than Yeah, yeah, I'm with you guys on the under I Washington can't score. They just cannot score. They don't like, they don't they don't want scoring. They don't even get first downs. I mean, it's crazy. Forty three and a half. You know that's Um, I don't, I don't, I don't understand. That's all you have the Jet pay get total at forty and a half. I see the Jets have the best offense of those four teams. It's crazy. Um. All right, that wraps up the schedule for Week seventeen. Very very very carefully. You gotta pick your best bets this week. It's very tough to navigate. You gotta be careful We'll see what we can do here for you guys, Gary, what you got the best? With that in mind, I'm going with six here, three sides. I am going Patriots minus three and a half verst of the Jets Miami plus one and a half a Buffalo, and the Saints minus six and a half versus versus Carolina. They're at Carolina, They're at Carolina. I wrote that down wrong. I will still stick with that minus six and a half at Carolina and three totals that under Sunday night under forty three and a half in Washington, Philadelphia, under fifty two in Packers at Bears, and over fifty at Falcons at Bucks. Mitch, al right, well, I will say again, I am on maybe in the coldest streak of my life, and I hate all my picks this week. Uh, I am with Gary on two bets. So maybe I'm trying to just steal his picks here and get some shine, or maybe Gary a late Christmas gift for me. Apologies, I'm gonna get my stink all over you. I have four bets this week, three sides in a total. I'm gonna go with Dallas minus three at the Giants Green Bay minus five in Chicago, New Orleans, minus six and a half in Carolina. And I'm also on that Falcons Bucks over fifty, I got four, I've got over forty four and a half. Ravens, Bengals under forty, Patriots Jets, Packers minus five under forty three and a half Washington, Philly. So we'll see how we do here last week of the regular season. We will be back next week for the playoff edition, and uh hopefully we can get you through the playoffs making some money. That wraps it up from Sary, Happy New Year, stay safe, and we'll see you next week right here on the MMQD Gambling potsh