Handicapping NFL Week 16: Saints-Vikings Christmas, Titans at Lambeau | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Dec 23, 2020, 11:34 PM

Jimmy, Mitch and Gary break down the Week 16 lines, including the Saints-Vikings Christmas afternoon tilt, three Saturday games, the prospect of Derrick Henry running wild in Lambeau on Sunday night and the Bills' chance to dance on New England's grave in Foxboro on MNF.

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Welcome everyone to the mm QB Gambling Podcast, Week sixteen in the NFL. Merry Christmas for those of you out there celebrating. I won't say Happy New Year yet because we will have a new pod for you next week, so tune in for that. What we got the week sixteen sleep with a Christmas Day game, three terrible Saturday games, and uh the rest of the smokers board on Sunday at which we will go through as always. And when I say we, I mean myself, Gary Grambling, Mitch Golditch, my co host. Um, it was a one two and one week I think for myself last week and not great. What about you? Gary? It was an uneventful week. I was two and one, uh and just nothing nothing out of You're in here with those bets, just yeah, two wins, one loss, Mitch? How about you? I was also one two and one, same as you. Jimmy got off to a frustrating start with the Thursday night game where I had the Packers minus eight and a half and then the late field goal by Carolina cuts it to eight and that's the final score. And then I was also annoyed with my push, which was the I think Jimmy you and I were both on this. The Chief's minus three against New Orleans, don't cry so yeah that one. That one also looked good for most of the game and then came out of the end they win by exactly three. Customer Bush, it should have been a three and one week for me. So I'm gonna I'm gonna go ahead and complain about one, two and one if that's all right with you, guys. Well, at least neither one of you, um best bet the Pittsburgh Steelers like I did. I did. I didn't even mention that one. Yeah, at least I didn't have the U the Rams also, But yeah, tough, tough little week for me. Should have been better. I don't know, alright. So it is amazing the Chiefs win every game and never covered. It's just it's amazing to see it every week. UM, we will go through these games. Like I said, it kicks off Week sixteen on Friday, Christmas Day at four third. UM. I thought maybe before the season this game would be a good one, but it's lost a lot of juice since the Vikings are done. Saints minus seven against the Vikings in New Orleans. A total is fifty one and a half. Gary, Yeah, I'll start by by getting up on my soapbox at the front of this one. Uh whatever. Ghoul at Park Avenue scheduled this game and was like, oh, NBA might not be able to play because the pandemic, so and now we can claim Chris's Day. I mean making these guys go out here on a Friday, uh Christmas afternoon when they forgot stake. Just just let them spend a day with their families. Maybe maybe maybe they can. I don't understand why the game is not at eight o'clock this way they could have had the day. Why Why four over eight? That's what I think Gary is right. I think when they built the schedule they thought the NBA wouldn't be back yet no offense, I'm not trying. The NFL does not care about what the NBA does at all. They don't even think about what the NBA does. They just don't care. They know their top dog. No one's gonna that's not even a consideration for them. I just don't understand why it's at four, not eight, before thirty eight. But as a non Christmas celebrator, I'm not an expert in family dynamics of when people like to be around the team as Christmas. It would have to do anyhow, Like eight o'clock is a better time slot than four o'clock. That's what I don't understand, and I'm talking about for the players and the coaches. They could have had all day with their family. Yeah, I will say though, I mean at the beginning of the season, we knew it wasn't gonna be normal, but we knew that the schedule wul be a little weird. Now that they played on Tuesday and Wednesday, it is kind of nice there's a Friday game because they do hit the whole Bingo card and there will be a game on every single day of the week this season, which has never happened before. And that is just kind of a nice, memorable nugget for how ridiculous and stupid this whole season was. In many ways, I love the Saints in this game. If we want to actually being the Saints, I love the Saints. I think the Vikings are done. They've mailed it in. Drew Brees was gonna have Russ last week against the Chiefs, and the first game back, I was surprised, if manyople that Breeze would come back and just be Drew Brees. I think that one week now under his belt will help him. And I think, uh, you know, I'm surprised this isn't seven and a half or even eight where they would sort of try to make you back off the Saints in Vegas. I love the Saints here minus seven. I actually, uh, I do kind of lean Minnesota in this one. I was hoping it would, like you said, Jamie, I was hoping we'll get seven and a half or eight here. I'll back off when it's all said and done. But uh, the Saints. Saints defense was out of her ninety two snaps. They basically played a game and a half uh, five days ago. So you know, now now they're heading out there and they're gonna get a heavy dose of Dalvin cooking this one. Uh it's a tall order, no doubt. If this was a regular game, this is a Sunday game. Everything was kind of normal about it. I think I'd be all over the Saints. Uh. The fact that, I mean this team is just gonna be worn down. I would expect Viking to be worn down to the got their asses by the Bears. And you know, there was a lot of snaps in that one for the pathetic Viking defense, So I don't I don't see the Saints being stopped on offense here. I'm actually with Gary a little bit. This just to me, Jimmy, You're totally right, but this just feels like the kind of game the Vikings would keep close or possibly even win out right. I'm gonna pick the Saints to win out right, but at seven point spread, I could easily see Minnesota covering. Um. It feels like these teams play more often than they actually do, just because they've had a couple of playoff matchups within the last few years. Although I know one the Minneapolis miracle predated the Kirk Cousins era. Um, but it is still like kind of fresh in your mind that the Vikings won in New Orleans just last year in the playoffs. But this is just such a Minnesota thing to get basically knocked out last week and then uh, play spoiler and just like you know, win a random Friday afternoon game against New Orleans and finish eight and eight anyway, And you know, I'm not that confident in them actually winning the game out right, but seven is a pretty big spreads. I'm not gonna be best betting this. Have a feeling Jimmy is, and that's why it's in the top of the show here. But I also I lean Minnesota. This just feels like a game where a team like that that'll at least, you know, keep it closed, lose by four or six whatever. Now we go to Saturday. First game at one o'clock on Saturday. Bucks minus nine and a half in Detroit, total fifty three and a half. Mitch, Yeah, Um, Jimmy, you mentioned the Saturday games are not not super exciting. UM. I don't know. So you know, I guess Matt Stafford is going to try and play through his rib injury. Again. I have no idea why he would. Um, maybe just to show that he's a tough guy. And maybe he also thinks it's his last season in Detroit and he wants to get as many starts as he counader his belt for that team that he loves. UM, but I don't know. Five and nine with that kind of injury, I would certainly shut it down. Um. The Lions, I'm in. They're done. They're at the point now. They fired their special teams coach after he went rogue with a fake punt last week, which is a great story. I don't know if they had a special team's bump or if that's a bad thing of them. Um. You know, the the line itself is a stay away uh for me. I just partly because of the Bucks. I just don't think I'm high enough on them to pick them to win by double digits right now. Um. I was looking at the over possibly and I could kind of be talked into that. I was looking Seven out of the Lion's last eight games have been over this number, fifty three and a half. Um. And of course the one that they weren't was when they got shut out twenty to nothing against p J. Walker. Um. But I just think, with enough questions about Stafford, the whole thing, Uh, the line and the total are both stay away from me. I really like the over in this one, and you can only like it so much because of the Stafford factor. I mean, the Stafford played sixty minutes. I think there had no problem putting up thirty points on this Bucks defense. Uh. The question is will this game be you know, twenty seven to seven and then they just send Chase Daniel out in the third quarter and and uh, sort of mercifully pulled a plug on the the Matthew Matthew Stafford rain here in Detroit. Uh. But look this, this Bucks offense is going to light up teams that can't rush the passer. The Lions can't rush the patches. They can't cover either. So I think the bucksh can take these last two weeks. They get Detroit this week, they host a Landa next week. I think they're just gonna put up as many points as it can. Uh. I think they they climb into the thirties. I think Stafford can hang around for the most part. Uh, and this one ends up getting uh getting into the high fifties, low sixties as a total um and just couple of treas. Your Bucks twelve and one over so so over in twelve thirteen when playing a defense that allows three fifty plus yards per game. They're also eight and oh uh over in their last eight games in a Dome stadium, and that's both those stats go back to eighteen. So you know you're you're crossing over in the jamis years. But it's still a thing. Yeah. I mean I'm not comfortable l nine and a half with the Bucks, and I'm certainly not comfortable ever betting the Lions, and I I like you guys how to lean on the over. But I saw some news this morning about like the Lions with a lot of COVID issues, and um, so it made me back off best betting. This is an over, But I do I would lean over with you guys. I think you know the Bucks will put up a lot of points here if Stafford plays. I see, you know, Tampa Bay putting up some Detroit putting up some points to get that over. But I don't know what's going on with the health, and so I had it as a stay away more than a possible best bet. All right, next game on Saturday, I'm not gonna go off, even though I want an absolute disgrace. You can only watch this on Amazon Prime or Twitch, not on television. Cardinals minus five against the Niners total forty eight and a half. Gary, Yeah, I look. I like the Niners in this one. I like uh, I like teams getting points against division rivals. I like the fact that George Kittle, if he's not back, there at least trying to get him back. I think that sort of signals uh. Not only are the coaching staff wants to win, but it signals to the to the players at the coaching staff is still planning on winning games down the stretch. Here. The one thing you worry about is the way Nick Mullins turns the ball over. You know, is is this going to be uh, you know, just just sort of meltdown for them. But we've seen teams move the ball in the Cardinals as much as I like with advance Joseph has done there. Defensively, I think the forty Niners can hang around in this one, or at the very least, if it's a situation where they're down to possessions late, they're gonna go out and score, uh, score some points late in this game, kind of like they did in Dallas last week. Um well, first off, Gary not mentioning mentioning. This is a double home game for both of these teams, so the most important thing is to figure out how that will affect. I think you have to say it definitely favors the Cardinals here, who are the actual team, Um, the forty Niners. By the way, they were also they were on the road, uh last week, whereas the Cardinals were home. So in terms of actual travel, you'd think it it might actually benefit them. But I don't know, Gary, I see your point about George Kittle and the message that sends, and obviously if he's out there and he's healthy, that's a huge help for them. But I also I mean, they shut down, uh most dirt and debo. They're both done. It kind of feels to me like the Niners had their chance to, um, you know, barely hang on. They were like heading to a shred of mathematical hope, and now they realized that they're done. Um. I've been encouraged by the Cardinals the last couple of weeks. I know it's just NFC East teams, but I thought they did a good job taking care of business against the Giants that game when Daniel Jones was hobbled, and then they finished off the Eagles and what was kind of a weird game. Um, but you know, I thought they showed some showed something coming out on top at the end there. So you know, I like them. I feel like this is kind of that game for Arizona. People were so high on them coming into the year and then on the bandwagon a little bit and then fell off them. But I still think they're talented. I still think they're right there in that wild card mix, and I think this is the kind of game where they're gonna, uh, you know, put on a nice show in front of a national audience. Maybe not Jimmy, he won't be watching, he won't be able to figure out how to tune into the game. But I think a lot of people are going to see this game and sort of be back on that Cardinals bandwagon. And then when we read it a bet against them in the first week of the playoffs. Um, But no, I do like Arizona here in this game. I just think the forty Niners. They've been impressive what they've done despite all their injuries, and I give a lot of credit to Shanahan and their staff, and they've had some good games. But I've talked about this all year. Um, they haven't shown up every single game like the Niners have had a few of those games where they sort of surprised me and some other people, but it hasn't been every single week. And I do like Arizona here. I know I can figure out how to watch it, but at a principle I won't and I will not bet it, So I have nothing to say about it. Next game Saturday Night Dolphins minus three at the Raiders total forty seven and a half. Mitch, Yeah, I like the Dolphins here. I liked them. I best met them last week and that was my one actual win. Um My gut does tell me to be weirdly worried about Marcus Mariota. Everyone loves to bury Derek Carr for whatever reason. Um, and I'm not gonna do that here. But it was kind of exciting. Mariota is one of those backups when he comes into the game, and especially a primetime game. Last week, Everyone's like, oh, it's Marcus Mariota. And it was kind of Jimmy's yawning as I'm saying this, and maybe he wasn't as excited. Shout our YouTube, our new YouTube following Jimmy is the king of s I S YouTube. So now they know when I'm boring you and when I'm not. Um, but no, you know, I thought he played pretty well until the interception last Thursday. Um. I think earlier in the season I might be worried about a Dolphins let down here, because you know, that's like a big game for them, beating the Patriots and eliminating them. But this is not a spot where they can have a letdown because you know, they're still in the middle of a playoff race, so they can't coast. It's still a huge game, so I expect them to be up for this. And the Raiders they're essentially done at this point, uh seven and seven. They've lost four out of five and their only win was that Jets game on the Hail Mary. So honestly, I just think at the end of the day, I think it's a relatively easy one to pick here. I think the Dolphins are better. I think they should win their favored by a field goal. I'm a little surprised, as lines not three and a half four points make you think about it a little more, But this is one of those where I just look at it and I think there's a better team favored by a field goal or less. I know they're on the road. That never bothers me. I like Miami here a lot. See. I want to pick the Dolphins, but I'm not for the reason you said. I think there could be a letdown factor. I think even though it's a down year and they're not good, for them to beat the Patriots. I think last year was a big deal and they do have a lot of injuries the Dolphins that they're dealing with. So now you're going across the country. You know, Raiders really not playing for anything, like you said, you know, if Carr was there, i'd feel better about the Dolphins winning. But with Mariota, like I said, the Raiders aren't playing for anything, but he's there to try to There's incentives at Steak and contract stuff at Steak, so I would. I think Miami is a great line. But I fear the letdown Gary, But I just jim like, I get it. They letoun in week nine, Week twelve totally makes sense. This is like a well coached team Week sixteen. I don't think they're gonna have a letdown when they're fighting for a playoff spot and they're right in the middle like I'm living earlier. It's still a rookie quarterback though they haven't and the team that hasn't been through this. Yeah, I I And I'm less about the letdown, Jimmy. I think this game is a pick come. I'm not surprised the Raiders getting points since they've been in a slump, and and I think the Dolphins, uh, maybe maybe open some eyes last week. I think there's maybe an overreaction to the Dolphins after they've sort of been underrated all year. Uh in the market. This is just it's a bad matchup for for Miami. I mean, it's it's a it's it's a Raider scene that wants to run the ball and run down people's throats. The Dolphins have relatively struggled and people people will say, well, they haven't struggled lately, and they you know whatever, they shut down the Bengals run game. Uh, they gotta lead on the Chiefs. That's why the Chiefs didn't run on them. And they shut down the Jets who didn't try running in a game that they were really competitive in. So you can run on the Dolphins. The Raiders weakness right now is in the secondary. We'll see if DeVante Parker is back, We'll see what the Dolphins have for weapons. But it's just it's never gonna be an explosive passing game that they have. So I just think it's it's a it's two teams. I think the Dolphins are little bit better than the Raiders, but I think the matchup makes us a pick them. So fact that the Raiders are are getting plus three. It doesn't feel good. It doesn't feel good in my heart, but it feels good in my mind getting Vegas getting some points here. Speaking of over reactions, the Browns are nine and a half point favorites against the Jets. Game is home game for the Jets total, so when I see over reaction, I don't care. What the Jets did against the Rams. Is still the worst offense in the NFL by far. I love the under forty seven in this game. I don't think the Jets top thirteen points here in this one. Gary, I'm I'm surprised about the over reaction because I feel like all of America probably didn't tune into that game until the second half. Everyone's lodging Chief Saints, and then you saw the second half or the Rams were just moving the ball at will, and it was like, oh, right, okay, this is what we expected. But the Rams just couldn't score enough points when it was also holding every play. Yep, I mean it was look quinnin Williams. I went back, I went back and watched the first half que and Williams dominating that game. Quentin Williams is out now he's out for the season, uh, which you know, one defensive player only makes so much of an impact, but uh, he was a huge difference maker in that Rams game. Uh. And you know, anyone who's watched the Browns game this year has has heard a commentator say, uh, you know that the the gap between Baker Mayfield uh clean pocket versus Baker Mayfield under pressure is enormous. It's it's it's it's the biggest gap between those two metrics in the NFL. So the short of it is, if you keep Baker Mayfield protected, you're gonna have another game where you put up you know, thirty something points. Uh. And if you don't, you have a meltdown. I don't think the Jets are gonna put any pressure on on Baker Mayfield here. So I think the Browns stay hot offensively. Uh. And and look, the Jets they can't play offense. They can't rush the pass right now, they they I'm just uh, I have a feeling you guys are probably in the same boat. I'm just surprised that this line is single digits. And uh, I think it's a lot of people maybe uh maybe leaning on the d v o A numbers or the advanced metrics. Uh. Season long for the Browns, but I didn't. You gotta throw that away to an extent. And I'm not a Browns guy, and anyone who reads my columns knows I'm not a not a not much of Baker Mayfield guy. Kind of coming around a little bit, but still not too high on him. But uh, you got to throw away what happened in November when they just played a bunch of games in monsoons. Uh, it's a it's a good team and it's a really bad team. And this line is too low, too low. Nine and a half on the road. I like it, Mitch Darry. I agree with a lot of what you said, and I'll just add on. You mentioned you should throw out all the monsoon games because of November. That was also when they were missing Nick Chubb, and I think you can throw uh some of the d v o A numbers out for similar reasons there. I just think there's so much better Their rushing attack and they're passing offense is better when they have Nick Chubb. Chubb and Hunt together are great and they just make life so much easier on Baker Mayfield. I'm with the precent and we talk all about UH teams and their motivation and what do they have to play for. Well, the Jets, they had a lot to play for when everyone thought they were gonna go oh in sixteen. I think they are totally in danger of being a team. They got their win, it's over with. What do they have the next the next two weeks. No one's gonna care about the difference between one and fifteen and two and fourteen, especially if the Jaguars lose out and they get Trevor Lawrence no matter what. Um So, you know, I think, like Jimmy said, talk about overreacting to what happened last week. I think there's a little bit of that. The Jets are still the Jets. There's still a one in thirteen team. We should think of them the way we would often think of a one and thirteen team. I think the Browns I love what I've seen from them. I think that Ravens game, and sometimes you talk about, you know, moral victories and is that a real thing or not, that really did seem to be a moment for them, even though they ended up losing that game. Uh, you know, it feels like it could have been a turning point for them in their season to finish strong. I like the brown sere to cruise nine and a half. Yeah, you know, nine and a half on the road. Um, but at least it's not thirteen and a half or seventeen and a half like some of the spreads we saw last week. And so yeah, you know I do. I like Cleveland a lot. Here the team that the Browns beat last week. The Giants go into Baltimore to face the Ravens. Baltimore minus eleven total here is forty five. Mitch. Yeah, so now we're talking big numbers again. Um, so we should say Daniel Jones is out and Colton McCoy will be in again. I believe that's the case. Um, or maybe it's like everyone knows it's gonna be the case, but it's not officially yet, but I think it will be. So, you know, the Giants the last two weeks, they sort of they had their high water mark of the season that upset in Seattle, with Colton McCoy famously spoken about plenty on this show week leading up to that game. Uh, since then, they lost seven and they lost twenty to six, and you have to have significant worries about their offense, I think, and the Ravens have totally turned their season around. This is one you know, I think the analysis of the game itself, I don't know how much time we have to spend on and I think we all agree and that the Ravens should win pretty comfortably here. Um. But to me, I just think eleven points is a little bit too high to best bet it. Um. So for me, it's going to be a stay, even though obviously I like Baltimore for reasons that should make sense to everybody. Um. But you know, if you maybe pick a side, I guess I'd say take Baltimore minus eleven um. But it feels like a lot of points here, So I'm gonna leave this one alone. No, I've got a Ravens lean here. I think they are a borderline top five team the league. I I thought that even when they were slumping. I thought it was sort of a matter of some bad breaks and some untimely injuries and a couple of weather games there. So I lean Ravens here. Uh. Colt mcoy Giants, just I'm just not gonna do it for you. I love the under again. If Colton McCoy is the quarterback, the Giants can't score and the total here is forty five. I think the Giant defense is good and I think they can, you know, keep Baltimore from going off into that thirty five thirty eight point level. I think they could keep Baltimore to seven. Giants can't score love the under next game. I don't understand this line. You guys have to explain to me the culture only minus two at Pittsburgh. Um, I don't understand at all. Gary, I don't know. I mean, look, the thing that's shocking about this Steelers team is they're not incapable of throwing the ball downfield. I know Ben was inaccurate in the Cincinnati game, but I don't think that's been the case for the most part over the course. I I don't want to say this is like vintage Bend about to break out, but uh, you just figured at some point they're going to expand this offense and get the downfield passing game going. And I still think they can do that if they want to. It seems like they don't do it because they're so terrified of Ben taking any hits over the course of a game. And now you I mean you saw my d and now I mean those those Bengals safeties who who aren't they they're kind of okay, I guess, but you can just play like a missile. I mean, you can just come down field every time you see a crossing route and just know that the ball is not gonna go over your head. So at some point the Steelers are just gonna say, you know, maybe winning the Super Bowl is more important than keeping Ben Roethlisberger healthy, and then they will expe and the offense. I don't know when that happens. Uh. And that's why I'm sort of staying away. But I'm with you, Jimmy, or would I anticipate you will be with Jimmy? Uh? That that the cults are sort of being disrespected by just lying here. I mean, the Steelers haven't played well in like six weeks. I guess the the other thing you're looking at, you know, Philip Rivers when he gets pressured, much different quarterbacks. So if you're saying t J wanting that Patchwords is going to take over this game, yeah, I guess you're just against the Bengals. Yeah, it just seems I'm with you. It just seems like you're this line is very optimistic. Yeah, I mean Steelers. They've lost too many guys. The Steelers, they've gotten worse on both sides of the pall Like you could do a whole segment on their offense and on their defense. Um. The defense has been great, and I've you know, I've loved watching them all year, but they've just they've lost guys. They lost uh, And you know it's like you lis Devin Bush. Early in the season, you can plug somebody in and be fine, Um, but when they pile up and there's more and then a lose uh, you know, not teachout. It was Derek wa on the first play of the game, but yeah, Bud Dupree and then Splane got hurt and it's just like they add up. And I know every team's dealing with injuries this time of the year, but you know, when you lose too many of the important guys, it's a problem on offense. You know, Gary, you're talking about Big Ben and obviously he's had problems. If you remember, like early in the season, they were being really creative, getting Chase Claypool the ball and like all sorts of spots he was scoring, like running the ball and and receiving, and they were you know, getting everybody's ball on these quick plays and letting them uh, you know, run all over the field make plays. And they just haven't had that identity anymore. They can't run the ball at all, and so to expect that they're gonna run against this Colts defense, it's gonna be another game where you look up at the box score at the end of the game in Pittsburgh's leading rusher has like forty yards, which by the way, has already happened four times this season. And when you can't run like that, you know, Big Ben hasn't been good enough to like lead them as a you know, high flying passing attack. Indeed, they can run the ball, they can stop the run, and you know, Pittsburgh's lost three games in rows. So you look at them and you say, eleven and threes pretty impressive, But you gotta worry about how they're playing now. And I'm with you. This line is just totally disrespectful to the Colts. And this is this is probably my easiest one on the board as far as best bets this week. Steelers have not top twenty points since Week eleven. In their four games since then. Seventeen fifteen seventeen nineteen. I'm very impressed with the Colts. This is not just an anti Steeler pick. There's also pro Colts pick. I think they are. They might be the second best team in the FC, behind the Chiefs. You can make you know it's either them or Buffalo at this point. The culture that good. So minus two I will I'll be all over that. Next game is the Sunday night game on NBC. The Packers of three point favorites against the Titan's biggest total of the week fifties six. Um on this one, Mitch, Yeah, I love this game. This is probably the game I'm most excited to watch this week. Um, Packers Colts a few weeks ago was crazy, and now the Packers are gonna get the other an f C South contender, and I'm expecting another good game. You know, I've been saying for six weeks that I thought the Packers were the best team in the NFC, and uh, even before um we saw the Saints choke against the Eagles. But you know, the Titans have also just been totally rolling through this whole portion of the schedule except that one first half against Cleveland. So my gun here, I'm a little surprised that spreads more than a field goal. UM My gut says, take the points here. Um. You know, it's gonna be a night game at Lambeau, so it's gonna be one of those like cold weather games. Um, but it feels like the Titans are kind of built for that kind of game, you know, like Derrick Henry and A. J. Brown. I have visions of them breaking tackles, like have fun trying to tackle them in the freezing cold and Lambeau at night. Um. And you know, I think we saw from last season, the second half in the playoff run that that's what kind of that's what kind of team the Titans are, and I've been impressed that they've picked it up like that. Um. Honestly, like picking the games straight up, I'm totally torn about who it is. But I just think getting more than a field goal not a slide at all against Green Bay. They're a great team. I've been on them all year. Um, but it feels like they I mean they you know, maybe I'm just feeling burned by them letting Carolina come back and get the back door cover last week on whatever night of the week that was. Um, but you know, I think if I'm picking a side here, I would take the points and just figure this game might be come down to a field goal at the end one way or the other. Gary, Yeah, Jimmy, you brought this up a couple times over the years. Packers typically don't have back to back duds, and and obviously they won last Saturday night, but it felt like it did. And Aaron Rodgers, if you if you saw any of his comments after the game, he was talking about it like it was a dud. Uh, it was just a really down performance for the offense, and and especially this season, they really haven't had those performances back to back. They bounced back really nicely the next week. So, Uh, this Titans defense, we know they're they're they're they're bad at football. They don't get off the field on third down. You could very easily see uh Rogers going out there and putting up thirty five points. And obviously we know the Titans can put a point. So I'm a I'm a cow. Were the numbers a little too high for me, so I'll back off, But I do like the over here, and uh, I think this is gonna be a lot of points put up in this game. Yeah, I can't go over fifty six. I I thought long and hard about taking Tennessee. I don't every now and again, it doesn't happen to me often, but every now and again, I just there's a game where you just have a field more than anything else. And I don't know why, but I just Sunday night, I just pictured Derrick Henry running rough shot all over Lambeau Field and all over that field, and um, I think that might be Like I think this could be like one of those two hundred and twenty yard games for Derrick Henry. I don't know why. I just have this feeling on it. And it's, you know, like I said, it's a feeling. So I wouldn't best bet it. But something tells me Tennis. You know, I think a lot of people see Packers minus three, they don't even look at who the opponent is. You grab that Packers at home minus three. I don't know. I just got a weird feeling. I don't know what it is, but I could just this is the type of game I kid see Tennessee maybe shocking shocking the world. Next game is Monday night, the Bills minus seven in New England against the playoff less Patriots total forty six Gary. Yeah, I you know, I like Buffalo on this one. I kind of mentioned last week it felt like the Patriots are sort of one foot out on this season. And uh again, I mean looking veteran team, professional team. Maybe they just want to spoil the Bills season a little bit now that they're taking their a f c's crown. But I think it all likelihood the Bills, who are just more talented anyway, uh, win this one. However, the numbers a little too big for me. I do think it's in one possession game. I also, I really like the under in this one. Is is going to be my play? Uh? The Bills wanted to get this run game going on offense the second half of the season. They certainly have a chance to hear against the Patriot scene that absolutely cannot stop the run. Uh. And then on the Patriot side of it, they you know, we know they don't throw the ball. They haven't thrown the ball well all year, so they're gonna try and run it. I think the clock keeps moving. I think it looks a lot like the matchup they had in buffal Low earlier in the Season one. Lots of running in that game. Uh, except I don't think the Patriots can maybe quite uh keep pace with the Bills in this one. So I'll go under forty six year and uh lean Buffalo, but stay away from the side. Yeah. It's funny to look at this game because I remember when the schedule came out, this was like an event that people were circling and saying, Oh, this could be the game of the year. Is this, you know, the end of the Patriots dynasty or the Bill is gonna beat him on Monday night and clinch the division? And now it's like a meaningless game for New England. Uh and Buffalo already ran away with it. Um. I feel pretty much similarly to how Gary does you know the Bills are the better team? Uh? They still have a lot to play for even though they've wrapped up the division. Um, at least this week, I think they do. I think once the Chiefs wrap up the one seed. I don't know how much difference there is this year between the two and the three. I guess you still want home field advantage in the divisional round, but it feels like this is a game they're gonna want to win. And you know, I'm with you. They're they're the better team, but seven is just a little bit too high. Um, you know, I could actually could see it being a seven point win, And why would I want another frustrating, annoying push on my record to uh to complain? But maybe I should bet that they'll win by exactly seven. If this was the Super Bowl and UH we were betting all the prop bets, I could take that. But now I think I'm gonna leave this one alone. Even though I lean Bills, I love the Bills. Here a couple of things. The Patriots can't score, So if the Bills get to seven thirty, the Patriots have no chance to keep up with them. Their offense is completely inept on every level. And I know this from being a Yankee fan. People now Patriots down. They the opponents want to kick them now while they're down because they've been good for so long. The Bills will. We saw it last week. The Dolphins finally got to beat the Patriots in a big get in a big situation for them, eliminate the Patriots from the payoff playoffs. The Bills are gonna love romping all over. The Patriots have to being dormats for the pay Every team in that division has been dormats with the Patriots. The pages are eliminated. They're playing for nothing. You think teams let up take now. They are going to hit the accelerator and bludgeon the Patriots whenever they can. Is payback for the last twenty years. So I love laying a touchdown there with a juggernaut Bills offense. All right, Lightning round time. We got one, two, three, four or five six seven games you in the lightning round, so we'll see if we can go through this quickly. These are games that we don't love in terms of wagers. The first game, right off the bat, we say it, they don't try, they don't cover. Chiefs minus ten and a half against the Topics total fifty four. I can't bet the Chiefs anymore. This line is ten and a half. They'll be up by seventeen and give up a late touchdown that means nothing and they won't cover. So that's my theory. Mitch. Yeah, you're a hundred percent right, But we're all cowards. So none of us are gonna best about the Falcons because you've best about the Falcons, and then the Chiefs scores twenty eight points in the first quarter and you feel like an idiot. They don't even have to try. Um. Yeah, I mean the Chiefs their last six games were all wins by six points or fewer. Um. Now it's gonna be Levy on Bell time with Clyde Edwards, Hilaire out, and Tigree kills hamstring. I don't know if eventually this is gonna be a probably feels like every single week they're just like monitoring his hamstring and then they say that he's fine. Um. But yeah, you know, Jimmy, you hit the nail on the head. This is the lightning round. We don't have to elaborate too much. I think obviously I like the Chiefs here and uh, I think the Falcons are gonna cover. But I'm not gonna best bet against the Chiefs, so that's where I come down. Yeah. See see if it sings under ten Chiefs like the Chief's defense is fresh Year didn't have to play many snaps last week in New Orleans. The Bears seven and a half point favorites in Jacksonville total, I don't even know if we know the quarterback yet is for jack for jackson Gary. Yeah, and it makes no sense. I have no idea what they're dealing with the quarterback situation in Jacksonville. You have no good quarterbacks, but you have one guy who's clearly better than the other guys who just play Gardner Minshew. Make sure you lose so you get the good quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, it's like and and again, the Bears should win this game going away. They have found a formula offensively that works and and obviously their defense is really good. I'm just backing the way with it. And look, it's it's stupid and it's anecdotal, but uh, I don't know if you're Doug Morone and you know this is uh, this is the end of your run here. Don't you just want to go out with a couple of wins, if you want to win a game or two and go And I wouldn't. Again, it's it's stupid and anecdotal. You should bet the Bears. You were bet in this game. But you know, just get the feeling at uh, I don't know, Jaguars didn't go out there and beat him on a late field goal and and Trevor Lawrence swings back to the Jets. Gary I think everyone would like to just win a couple of games. I think if you talked to Matt Maggie, who also could be on the hot seat if he blows this game, I'm sure he'd like to win, probably if it was that simple. I don't know. I mean, yeah, a week ago, we would have said that the Jaguars were the team that was still fighting even though they were totally out of it. And then last week they get the doors blown off them, and it's the Jets and the Bengals who go out and score giant upsets. So I don't know. You know, you can't lay seven and a half with Chicago, so I guess I lean Jacksonville. But it's also you're right, it's so weird. I mean, they don't even know who's starting. And at this point, they've had a whole season of watching these guys practice, they've seen everybody in games. They've had three different quarterbacks this year. It's it's it's really it's really strange that they don't know what they're doing. Uh, down to the wire. You'd think they ought to be able to announce on Monday, Hey, this is our quarterback, whether it's Minshew or not. Uh, and I agree with you it should be Minshew. But yeah, just a weird situation. I think the Jags are going to finish it off one and fifteen here. I think the team I've watched the least this year is the Jaguars. I have no feel. I I don't you know. And I haven't watched the Bears much lately either. I know they're playing better obviously, true whisky, but I don't watch these teams. I have no feel. I can't give you any betting advice on it. Another game I will gladly not watch one single second of On Sunday, the Texans or eight and a half point favorites gonna Beangals A total is forty five and a half Mitch, Yeah, that's one. I don't even I don't know where to be again with this, my h My Texans have fallen so far. I would just I mean, the Bengals, You've got to think this is a letdown game for them. Last week Monday Night at home division rival. You could tell from the first three plays how pumped up they were. They just they can't have that again a second week in a row. I think that was just because it was the Steelers and a home game in front of everybody now a short week, Um, you know, traveling to Houston. But who knows. I mean, the Texans have have disappointed me plenty of times before, and they will disappoint me again. Uh so you know I will stay miles and miles away from this one. I jump on the Texans if it was less than a touchdown here, I'll stay away. One thing I just want to know it One the fact that you know they're going to have to defend a team that has a quarterback who is he's going to offer more possibilities in Ben Roethlisberger and these these quicks right throwers. But uh, this Bengals offense, I mean, look, four point one yards per play last week against the Steelers. All the key plays with these Ryan finleay keepers off of off of reed option looks, which no one prepares for because no and thinks Ryan Finley is gonna is gonna keep it. So that is kind of out of the bag. I don't know what else they could do offensively. I think there's no more surprise for the Bengals. I think they just don't score points anymore. Next game, Chargers three and a half point favorites at home because the Broncos total forty eight and a half. Gary, I like Denver. I also like Denver last week and and they you know, I had a bit of a dud on Saturday, so I'll back off of it. I will mention that, you know, the Chargers, as soon as you want to jump on the Chargers bandwagon, they just let you down. They are over the last two years coming off a game or they have four hundred plus yards their O and nine against the spread. Uh so you know, if you're gonna bet at bet Denver, but probably just you'll live your life, stay away. I'm glad Gary had something to say because two rules on this podcast. I don't talk about the Broncos. Jimmy doesn't talk about the Chargers. So it's it's this is why it's lightning around actually, and thank you Gary for us speaking. I don't bet the Charges, but I will check into this game because I think it's gonna be such a train wreck. It will be fun, but I won't bet it. But this has definitely got Like I think thirty one thirty one one minute left, ANTHONYA. Lynn screws up some way and then Drew Lock throws a pit like there. This will be like a crazy last minute finish. I just won't bet the game like that. Chargers Falcons game a few weeks ago, where they were competing to lose I was low scoring. This I think will be more high scoring. The over here could be a play if you're looking for something. Next game, UM Washington minus two and a half at home against Carol Lion total forty four and a half. I don't know what the quarterback situation is there with Washington. UM and uh, you know this has nothing to do with gambling, but I don't know. A lot of people were like putting Matt Role in the coaching Hall of Fame in the beginning of the season, and that team has done one of the biggest collapses that you don't hear about because no one cares about the Carolina Panthers nationally. But that has been one of the biggest full jobs I've ever seen in the NFL. Anyway, Washington and a half total forty four and a half. Mitch, I don't know if I would call it a collapse because I feel like everyone kind of knew they were overachieving at the start of the season. They were a two and fourteen roster. Yeah, I think they they tailed off more than they collapse. Maybe I'm I'm not trying to beat the Matt Matt rule fanboy stuff gone on the first month of the season and decisions that are just completely Bill O'Brien esk Uh, that's that's an insult um. Yeah, so this is this is the run Rivera ble um, which I guess makes it emotional for both sides. I have no idea how you uh decide whether or not that factors. It also just feels like, you know, the Panthers have had so much turnover, Like I think it would be bigger if it was if it was like you tune in and the pregame coin toss. It's like, uh, you know Cam Newton and Luke Kickley and Christian McCaffrey who's not playing, and Greg Old if it was like those guys, then you think they'd be like, oh, we gotta go out there. Like I don't know who knows, like the half the roster probably doesn't even doesn't even know Ron Rivera personally, So I throw that one out. But yeah, Jimmy, you're right about the quarterback situation. I mean, I think Washington's hoping to have Alex Smith back. They don't know if he will and if it does play, they don't know if he'll be a um other options. I don't know if they would play Dwayne Haskins. I saw the team voted to strip him of his captaincy. Uh this this morning, we're talking on Wednesday. It's kind of hard to turn around and put that guy back in the huddle. But then if Alex Smith isn't healthy, there are other options, are Taylor Heinike or Stephen Montez. So you know, maybe maybe you just grabbed Carolina plus two and a half because uh, you know, that line could swing a lot, Like I'm ready for Sunday morning. The tweet from Adam Schefter that's just like Alex Smith isn't ready and they're going with Taylor Heineke today and then all of a sudden, Carolina is favored by two and a half, three points, or you know, maybe the line swings the whole touchdowns. I don't know. Maybe that's a spot you get a little value getting it on Carolina early in the week, but not for me. I choose not to bet. It's gonna say it's it's it's the only it's the only team in the league where it doesn't matter who the quarterback is the trying rode the ball anyway. It's like Logan Thomas has their biggest passing play, their tight end has the biggest passing play. Like the last three weeks here, uh and and sorry, jam, I'm jumped the gun. And because I get all fired talk about Washington football team quarterbacks, you go, Carolina football Team's whole formula has been to uh and I'm talking about the the proper now and football team. Their whole formula has been for the last two months. Our defense is going to score multiple touchdowns and that's how we're gonna win games, or we're gonna play a team that happens to just not tackle that week. And in the case of the Cowboys Thanksgiving night game, Uh, it's it's a ridiculous formula. It's a ridiculous team. They don't have a name, they don't have a quarterback. I'll take anyone getting points against them. I like Washington here. I just would like to know who the quarterback is. I think, you know, obviously, if Fleximuths plays, I think they definitely win and cover. I can even see them winning and covering with Haskins only because I think the Washington be motivated. I think for Ron Rivera's game against his former team, the Panthers have done their shot. They gave that effort in Green Bay. I think now it's over for them. And listen, the Haskins thing is absurd, like, yes, he did something, but like he's holding a press conference now today. On Wednesday, they stripped him of his captain cy. So he's gonna go out there, I think, with a little chip on his shoulder and you know, try to convince people he's not a complete buffoon. So maybe he plays well. And like Gary said, they don't throw the ball downfield anyway, all he's gotta do is dinking and dunking a little bit. And you know, I think the Washington team will get a victory here next game. It's a good game. The Seahawks minus one and a half against the Rams in Seattle total forty seven and a half. Gary, Yeah, I was bombed. I bet Rams every time they play the Seahawks. And I was hoping after that Jets loss this blind would swing to like four for for the Seahawks or something like that, and it just didn't. And and I think it's a just at a principle, I won't bet it. I'd still lean Ramsey here. I do think they just match up well with the Seahawks. They always have. Uh. The one other thing that's sort of made me hesitant it is when we saw these teams play earlier in the year in l A. Uh. Two things. One Yeat Andrew Whitworth was was healthy for the first half of that game when the Rams had a lead. Uh. The other thing was the Rams defensively just went out there and and just just absolutely dared the Seahawks to run the ball. And that was still during the you know, let Russ Cook mania, and the Seahawks just refused to run it on first down even when they I mean the Rams would put like one down lineman on and put like ten other guys like ten yards off the off the ball on first down, and they still wouldn't run the ball. So Chris Carson is back now, they're they're not gonna, you know, if the Seahawks have a chance and they're gonna run it. That's who they've been the last the last month and a half here. And and I think it's a little bit of a different equation here, and this is probably one that comes down to, like some of the Seahawks games over the last three years, just comes down to the final possession. I double check the line if you had still one and a half. So you're not getting any any favors there, Mitchy, Yeah, I just I sometimes I can't with these uh. And I see West games. I know, speaking as a guy who's about to tell you in the next segment that I'm best betting the Cardinals against the Niners, But like, who knows what some of these teams and Gary, You're right how the Rams own the Seahawks. It's like they all sort of own each other. It's like the big flow chart that I've seen uh floating around. But you know, I mean, this would be the ultimate bounce back game, uh for the Rams after what we saw and and you think they ought to be able to do that. I mean, the the Seahawks, Uh, they laid their egg against the Giants and then they beat those Jets forty two three. But sometimes you throw that out because just like weird things happen, and we say this all the time. It's like the reason this is so hard is because sometimes the good teams just play like crap one week and vice versa, and it happens, and a lot of times you don't see it coming. Um, I don't know. This is another game. I think, Jimmy, you said it. This is It's a good game. I'm excited to watch a ton of steaks on this one. Um, I think I leaned Seattle just because I've kind of leaned their way for most of the season. Um, And you know, I guess I expect them to pull out a win, but I might talk myself out of it and convince my self the Rams are gonna win tomorrow. So I'm I'm totally torn on this one. A lot of times, like the games that we push to the lightning round, or you say, you know, I don't have a field because I don't like either of these teams, or like I just don't even have any idea this one. I'm like, I can talk myself into either side. Um, So I just I defer to Gary. It would be impossible for me to have less of a feel for a game than this one. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if either team won. I wouldn't be surprised if we went over. Wouldn't be surprised for one under. I wouldn't even begin to know how to how to pick this one last game of the week, the Eagles go into Dallas has two point favorites. The totaled here forty nine and a half, such a big total. Jalen Hurts in for when to know the Eagles have a functioning offense and Mitch what he got. Yeah, So the Eagles, Uh, they've been living in the lightning round for much of the season because I'm a coward and normally I would love to be best betting their games all season and this year I just can't. But as an Eagles fan and a glutton for punishment, I do like the goals here. Uh. You know, maybe I'm just trying to talk myself into it, but you know, the the offense, it's not just the quarterback. I mean, Jalen Hurts has just made everything look better. And you know, even just some of the guys who weren't contributing at all earlier in the season are suddenly showing up. And you know, I know some of that the Eagles. I've had guys in and out of the lineup, but like last week, you're looking up in Alshon Jeffrey and Zach Ertz are making plays and you're asking like what year is it? And then you know Quez Watkins has touchdown and Greg Ward. You know, it's just like it looks like a totally different team. So then, um, you know, the Eagles one of their big problems last week was just the health and the secondary. And I know the Cowboys, you know they've got those talented wide receivers. I Seedee Lamb is probably gonna have a hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns in this game, just because that is a thing that happens against the Eagles, especially a guy like him who every Eagles fan I know wanted to draft him in the first round and they didn't get him anyone to Dallas. And that's just this is what the Eagles do. There's like a long list of great wide receivers who just torked the Eagles. But if that's all they do, I still think the Eagles can come out and win this game like to twenty where Ceedee lab is the only offense that they have. Um, you know, I just I like their mojo. I thought it was an encouraging game from Jalen Hurts even in a lost last week against Arizona. And I just think Dallas is such a mess. I mean, every team in some way, shape or form in this division is a mess. And uh, you know, I don't know, call me crazy, Like sometimes you just have a hunch on the game, and I just think Phil He's gonna find a way to win this game. Yeah, I I lean Dallas, but no one wants to bet Dallas at this point. I will I will say the the the optimistic thing for the Eagles is, uh, they want to run the ball. They want to run a ton we say all year. The Cowboys just every other week they decide they're not gonna tackle anyone. So it would not be surprised at all if you saw, like Miles Sanders have a have a seventy yard touchdown run and Jalen Hurts have a couple of long runs. Uh. I will say this about the Eagles though, and and and I think last week was very encouraging for Jalen Hurts. It's it's still very early in the process though. Uh. And that is a game where they want to turnover margin three nothing. They got a series of let's let's call them very suspect pass interference calls that they benefited from and they suddenly put up twenty six points and lost the game. You don't lose many games the NFL with those kinds of advantages coming your way. Uh. And they just they're not going to be there most weeks. So again crumby teams, you don't really want to bet on either one of them. I I if you were going to flip a coin, you'd probably say the uh, the Eagles find a way, but uh, you know they're giving points. I just I don't like it. Yeah, I mean Dallas is you know, they've turned around a little bit here. I mean they beat San Franz, beat Cincinnati. Not good teams obviously, but and they're not dead. So I think i'd have to link Dallas. But I have no confidence where I would bet them. Um. All right, that wraps up the board for Week sixteen. Only one regular season week left after this week. We will now give you our best bets for week sixteen. All right, Well, to be clear, I do not have the Eagles. I am not best betting them in Dallas, but I do have four other games for you. Uh, one home team and three road teams. Give me that Cardinals minus five in the double home game against the forty Niners. Um, I think I'm gonna be going against Gary on at least a couple of games here. But I do I like Miami minus three in Vegas, Cleveland minus nine and a half at the Jets, and the Colts minus two in Pittsburgh for my four. Yea, yeah, I do. I have. I have San Francisco plus five at Arizona, and I have a Vegas plus three hosting the Dolphins. I'm also gonna go Browns minus nine and a half at the Jets East North for again and two totals I'm going over fifty four is that we had it at for Bucks and Lions. Yeah, fifty three and a half, congratulations and a half? Even better? Uh? And then I'll go under in that Patriots Bills game under I got five for you Saints minus seven Christmas Day, Colts minus two against the Steelers under forty seven, Brown's Jets under forty five, Giants, Ravens Bills minus seven. Little party there for the Buffalo getting to beat up on New England and reverse course after twenty years of the other way around. So those are my five for the Best Bets Week sixteen. We will be back new episode next week for weeks sevent team, the last week of the season heading into the new year, so check that out here on the MMQB Gambling Podcast feed. That wraps it up. Merry Christmas, Happy holidays, good luck with the wages. We'll see you next week.

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