Handicapping NFL Week 14: Will Steelers Get Back on Track? Can Miami Hang With KC? | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Dec 11, 2020, 9:00 AM

Jimmy, Mitch and Gary analyze the Week 14 lines, including the now once-defeated Steelers heading out to Buffalo and Tua's Dolphins trying to stick around with Mahomes's Chiefs. Plus, the Seahawks look to finally score a blowout with the Jets coming to town, and the Ravens look to continue their dominance over the red-hot Browns.

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Welcome ever on to the mm QB Gambling Podcast for Week fourteen in the NFL. I am one of your co host, Jimmy Trained, joined as always by Mitch Goldich and Gary Grambling as we take you through the games, give you best bets, and get you set up for the gambling week ahead. Just a very quick recap on last week. I know I went four and two, thanks to all the underdogs. I took Gary, how do you do? And that's what we get the underdog. Yeah, I went three and two. Devastated. It was it was this close to four and one. The Charges were like two bounces away from victory against the Patriots. So we should just play back the audio from last week's Chargers Patriots. I I do stand by that take that you know, you can't look at teams, special teams and be like, oh they're so bad. I think they're special teams are just gonna really blow this week. I do stand by that. But the fact that I said it and then they went out there and immediately two special teams at Jolene was it was very Chargers of them. So and I haven't been wearing a San Diego Charger shirt today, so not just gave up the touchdowns. But they're lining up ten guys on on a punt of twelve guys on the fall like they couldn't figure out anything. Um, Gary, you're stealing my jokes from two weeks ago about the Falcons Raiders game. Uh three to six. Uh, your game was even worse. But the worst part is we talked to you about this and we told you, uh, you know, you talked specifically about the coaching matchup. We said we were going to text you in the middle of the game. We all saw this one coming that said, Uh, my pick of Brown's Titans under fifty three and a half looked just as bad as your bet, just as far into the game. Record. I was two and two last week. The other one I lost was I at the very end, I don't want to say, I let you guys talk me into it. I got a little excited and I took that Seahawks minus ten against the Giants, which was a disaster. I had my two road teams. I gotta stick to road teams, that's my bread and butter, and I went to a oh there, but two and two for the week, I was four and two and still bumped because I missed the over on the Packer game by one point. The over I think was forty seven and atlanted on forty six or was forty landed forty seven. Then Jets, Jaguars, Washington Giants all picks of mine underdogs last week. I'll cover it. That was nice. Um, we're going out a week fourteen and see what we got cooking this week. So we all respectable. No one had a bad week, so let's keep it rolling. We kick it off in Miami. Very interesting game here, Chief seven point road favorites against the Dolphins. Total here is fifty and a half. Garry kick it off. Yeah, I do like Miami in this one. Uh you know, I was hoping maybe that line climbed a little bit more. I know everyone's kind of out on tour right now and I'm not big on to it, but I do think the Dolphins can can do some things against the chief defense. It's so kind of finding its way here. It's something an overwhelming pass rush type of defense here. So I think the Dolphins can you not keep pace, but I think they can hang around on this one, keep it to a one possession game. One trend with the Chiefs in the Mahomes era is. Look, they're coming off three three games of four plus yards. When that has happened in the past, this this is the ninth time it's happened. But when it's happened in the past, they are oh and eight against the spread coming off those, uh, those three impressive offensive games. So, UM, I do like the Dolphins hanging around. Like I said, I wish that line would just climb a little bit more in the Dolphins favor, but uh, you know, it is what it is. I'll probably end up best betting this one. Rich. Yeah. So I have said for a while it's a rule that if the Chiefs are favored by a touchdown or less, I'm gonna take it more often than not. Um. That said, you look at their games. They've won four straight games by less than a touchdown, even though I know some of those the games were not as close as the scores look. But they either let teams back in, um or what have you. But you know, I don't know the Dolphins they're winning with defense, um too. I mean, there are some concerns about his thumb. You've got to think that he's going to eventually get better. Um. But you know, I'm trying to think if the Dolphins are like the profile of a team that is going to beat the Chiefs, and I feel like they are, because you've got to figure anyone that's gonna beat Kansas City is gonna slow him down on offense. I don't think anyone is good enough to come out and like hang with them and just outscore them. Um. But you know, I'm thinking about this and the weather and Gary, you're talking about the four fifty yards and everything. It's gonna be a warm weather game. Like I just think about Patrick Moms when he's at his absolute best. It's like all those numbers about how incredible he is in September when the weather is nice and they're just throwing the ball over the place, and they might get one of those days and they might have a ton of success in the in the passing game. And you know, I do worry about the Dolphins keeping up. But I think even though I lean Chiefs, the line is a little bit too big for me to make this the best bet. Um. You know, I would pick them if you made me pick a side on this, But part of the thing and we will get to this. I like a lot of games today, I'm gonna go a little bit overboard, and uh, I like enough games that I'm not I'm gonna leave this one away as you'll see later. I like I should say I leaned Dolphins here, and I don't have the courage to pick against the Chiefs, but I think this is one of those games where the underdog is at home. This is probably gonna be like their super Bowl right here. Even though they're trying to get the playoffs home game against the best team in the league, They're gonna be all jacked up for it. And from what I've noticed from the Chiefs over the last few weeks, I don't want to use the phrase they don't try because that wouldn't be accurate, but I think they get very like a daisical. I think they know that they're so good they could go through the motions and still in I they have things to tighten up, drops, dumb penalties. I think this is getting seven here with the Dolphins at home. I like them that I leaned towards them, but I'm not picking against the Chiefs because I can easily see you know, thirty twenty here as well. If if the Chiefs decided they want to go a hundred percent from start to finish. I'll agree with you there. Like two years ago, Mahomes, this first season, it felt like they were on a mission, like him throwing for fifty touchdowns and all those numbers. Sometimes, Yeah, they're they're not doing that. This year they're not. They haven't really kept the foot on the gas pedal in the fourth quarter and some of these games where they really could have if they wanted to run up the score and the yardage totals and all that. Next game, Tennessee seven and a half point favorites in Jacksonville total here is a big fifty two and a half Mitch, Yeah, Jimmy, you were all over it last week. The Jaguars, they have been hagging with everyone and they almost won that game, took it to overtime. Last week. Um, you know, one of the most exciting things of the week was that ten minutes stretch where Trevor Lawrence's fate was hanging in the balance there. Um, this game, I didn't watch too much of it until the very end. I almost tweeted, uh, I can't. Every every time Red Zone cut to this game, Mike Glennon was like making a mistake and he took a safety and I almost pressed send on the tweet that like, all right, they gotta go back to minshow next week, right, And then they're showing more and more of this game, and it's like, oh, he's kind of slinging the ball and he made some nice throws and he earned another start. Um. So, you know, I don't know. The Titans I felt so much better about a week ago, and then really that first half was so discouraging against Cleveland. I don't want to make too much of them of what they did in the second half because you know, the game was pretty much out of hand. Um. But I don't know. This time of year, there is just such a disparity in motivation for some of these teams, and the Titans they really have to win this game after what happened last week and looking at the schedule and then being tied with the Colts and the Jaguars. You know, you can talk about tanking and if the organization wants to lose and whatever, but like the players on the field want to win, but they don't need it as bad as the Titans do. And you know, I don't know. Sometimes that's like a wishy washy way of breaking down a game. But but it is just true that that happens a lot. But I don't know. I think this is a kind of game that actually would have been a best bet if it was like a five point spread. But with the way the Jaguars are hanging in with people, I think seven is just a little bit too much for me. Yeah, I'm not crazy about the side. I like the total here and it's funny. I was, I was like, Wow, that's that's a high total fifty two for this game. Uh they went six two in sixty three in their last two matchups. Now that said, uh, you know, Glenn and I don't think is the sort of backdoor cover artist that that Gardner Minshew might be, although he did it, he did it two weeks ago. Uh. I like this one being the type of game where, uh, you know, Titans have been really bad on third and long. I think they'll be fine third and long against the Jaguar. You know. I I think the number something like nine for twenty six a little uh a little more than thirty five percent for for glennon on third downs this year. As far as conversions, Uh so, I think the Titans don't give up points. I think they just you know, it's it's Derrick Henry. It's a grinding run game. It's a clock that keeps running. And I think it's one does go under the fifty two? Yeah, I don't have a feeler lean. You know, seven and a half here, you would think Tennessee gets back and and gets a win. Here do they cover? Who knows? Um, I don't trust Tennessee right now. There's a lot of issues they have. The defense is just really it's a problem. Um. So it's stay away game from me. Next game is in Tampa. Bucks coming off a by given six and a half to the Vikings. Told here is fifty two and a half. Gary, Yeah, I'm I'm staying away from this one. I mean look, I I mean the Bucks are are are a potential top five team in the league, and they just uh you know, they show it one week, you don't show the next week. I do wonder if having the bye week gets them right a little bit. Now. The last team I said that about was the Eagles, who came out of their bye week and decided they were going to be uh significantly worse than they were beforehand. I don't know what they did during that week off a lot of peyote or something and and just forgot to practice football. But I I am gonna stay away from this one. I would lean Bucks, but this one for me is more of a more of a kind of litmus test to see see what the Bucks are going to be down the stretch. Run here, Mitch. I have to tell you, I like Minnesota here a lot. Uh look at this. I was surprised this line is so big. I do I I have Tampa to win the game outright, But I really I wouldn't be that surprised if the Vikings won here this It just feels like a game that they win a lot. It's like the b Kings. They you know, a lot of seasons. You go in and you underestimate them, and then you look up at the end of the year and there are eight made or nine and seven. And I think they do sometimes play down to their competition, and that's probably what we saw the last couple of weeks where they beat the Panthers and the Jaguars, and both games were closer than they should have. But I do think they are kind of settling into that late season groove. Um, you know they were they were one in five and then they beat the Packers, which was shocking to most people. And and I'll admit to me too, And suddenly they've won five out of six. And I know it's mostly a soft schedule, but they're in the playoff hunt and they're kind of like right there. Um, so you know, looking at their last four games there, six and six, they need to beat the Bears and Lions, and then they need to beat either the Bucks or the Saints to get to nine and seven. And honestly, I wouldn't count them out from winning one of those two games outright and getting there at nine and seven and being a playoff team. You look at the Bucks and and yeah, you're right there coming out of a bye week, but they've also lost two games in a row. Um, you know, the Rams and the Chiefs are excusable losses, but there's still losses and it's still it's three out of four. Uh. If you go back to that Saints debacle that we saw in prime time, I'm a little worried that. You know, you'd think they'd be healthy coming out of their bye week. Their stories that Mike Evans has a hamstring injury Chris Godwin had pens removed. The one nice thing about the bias. We've heard less from the Tom Brady Bruce arians back and forth, who's blaming who, who's at fault kind of sideshow that has cropped up. But I just think six and a half is too much. It wouldn't surprise me of Minnesota one, and this could easily be a three point four point game coming down the end. So I actually I think I'm gonna be best bet in the Vikings here. II lean Tampa. I don't love them to pick them, but I do think Brady coming off the by, is gonna put together a big game against a very very bad defense. Um, it's just a matter of covering six and a half. I would expect the Bucks to do that here. I think their offense is too good for for the Vikings Poors defense. You know, Vikings lose to the Cowboys two weeks ago, struggle to be Jackson the last week. Now they're going to Tampa, who's coming off a by. So I like everything here from Tampa standpoint. I just there's I don't trust them enough, though, you know they throw stinkers in there every now and again and they can't do anything on offense. But I don't think that will be the case, so I I lean Tampa minus six and a half. Don't probably will not best bet it, but that's the lean there. The next game, the Cardinals go into uh met Life and face the Giants Arizona two and a half point road favorites against the Giants coming off that when in Seattle with Colt McCoy, the total here is forty five. Mitch, yeah, two and a half points. I saw it at one and a half earlier and the line has moven this one. You know you could be right, Um, I checked this morning, so it's possible if you're like you're looking at newer numbers. Um, But yeah, I made fun of I did. I had some fun with Colt McCoy uh last week on this show, as anyone remembers, Um, I don't know this. This feels like a tricky game. These are two teams headed in totally opposite directions, Like the Giants are underdogs, but everything to me says take the Giants here or um, you know they've been winning games that. The game last week against Seattle was one of the more stunning upsets of the season, I think, and the Cardinals they have just faded and they're losing games. Their offense just hasn't been the same. It is coincided with when Kyler Murray got hurt, whether that is the reason or whether that just happened to be when teams started to figure him out. It feels like he's not rushing for as many yards, and even just the connection with DeAndre Hopkins and their offense is just you know, I we all thought that the cart maybe not all of us Gary, but many people expected them to take a leap in the second year with Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. But when that happens, it's not always just like a leap like a week one, they're a better offense, like you'd expect that to be gradual throughout the season. And so to me, it's been a little disappointing that they haven't done that, uh and really gotten better throughout the year. But you know, it's just so hard. The NFL is so stupid, Like you see good teams have bad games and vice versa. And you know, I look at this and it screams to me, take the Giants and they're gonna in the points. Um, you know what, I like them. I know everything I said about Colt McCoy, but the Giants are playing well right now, and I like him getting the points at home. Garry. Yeah, I'm a little bit curious about this Giant's defense. I mean great of late, they hadn't played a lot of great offenses, and then of course last week they got Seattle and play a pretty good offense and and shut them down. So I would back off this one. I don't have a great read on either team right now. Obviously that the Daniel Jones factors are still a chance he suits up, and um, we all love Colpe McCoy, and we all love saying Colte McCoy repeatedly on this podcast, but uh, you know, Danny Joe's obviously is a big upgrade there for the Giants in this play. So short, sorry, I'll back off this one. I am intrigued by that total and kind of want to bet the under, but it's a little too low for me. I wish it was more like a forty eight or something like that. Forty five, I'll probably stay away. Love the under forty five, I'll take under. I think the Giant defense is is playing so well that I think they'll be able to stifle Arizona and the Giants are just not gonna put many points with Colton McCoy. So I like that under forty five a lot this week. Um yeah, I mean forty eight would be nice, but I'll take on to forty five and be more than happy with that because I think that's a that's a seventeen game, seventeen. You know, Giants hard see them getting over the sevent team without defensive touchdowns. But um, the under there is a big play from me. Uh in that one. Next game, Texans minus one in Chicago to face the Bears. The total is forty five and a half. Garry, Yeah, I'll ultimately I'm gonna say away from this, and I thought i'd be picking the Texans. I thought it might be best betting the Texans here, I'm gonna stay away. It's it's basically a pick him. And you know I always say I don't like road teams in Soldier Field. And on top of that, I mean, look, Shawn Watson was fantastic last week. He was not being protected. On top of that, uh, he's got no receiver's life. He's got Kiki cutie and and I don't even know who their number two receiver is at this point, so I'll stay away. I will throw out the stat Bears two and twelve into the spread since the start of last year when facing teams that are allowing five point seven or more yards for play, so basically bad defenses, Bears don't take advantage. And that's just the way it is. But I'm staying away from this one with a slight Texans leadle Mitch Gary. That name you're looking for is Chad Hanson. And how dare you not know the name of the second wide receiver who also had a hundred yards for my Houston Texans and he was he was in that band back in the back in the nineties. Oh you know what, we should reach out to him because I bet he's never heard that joke before in his entire life. No, I'm talking about uh spinal tap. Oh yes, sure, spinal tap of course. Um yeah, listen, I like Houston here and I've been I'm the last person on earth who's still going to back up Houston. But in this case, it actually says more about the Bears than it does about the Texans. I am so far off the Bears. I just want to pick against them every week. They have lost six games in a row. Last week they gave one away to the Lions, and I just don't see how you can pick them. So, uh, you know, Gary, I think you said this is like a pick up. It's a one point game. The tech things are gonna win this game. I feel good about it. I told you, I'm kind of being a madman here. I'm gonna best bet like seven or eight games at the end of the show. For whatever reason, I am just all in on Week fourteen. I love every game on the board. I like Houston a lot here. That's how I feel about both them and Chicago. I will be best betting Texans minus one. Yeah, I've I hate both these teams. I hate watching both these teams. They're gross. I have no interest in this game, so we can hate watching Deshaun Watson. Come on, they're they're they're just they're not a good team there. I mean, he's fun, yeah, he's but like, I don't know, I'd rather watch probably four or five other quarterbacks over him. So, uh, next game Dallas in Cincinnati. After the embarrassment there against the Ravens, the Cowboys, though still three and a half point favorites thanks to know Joe Borrow total forty two and a half Mitch. So this, I think is the game that I have the least interest in watching of anyone on the board. Apologies to Andy Dalton that I don't have interest in watching the Andy Dalton revenge game. I don't even know is it a revenge game or is it just a homecoming. I don't know how you would classify this for employing me for eight years, yeah, I think yeah, he I think he can thank them. I don't know what whatevent anyway, I don't know. Listen, I picked Dallas to win straight up. It feels like the Bengals struggle to score more than ten points a game without Burrow. They have uh four the last four games. They have three of them their Tanner under and the other one was seventeen thanks to a hundred yard kickoff return, so you could look at the under. I just think, you know, we all know the issues that Dallas has had and they've lost guys, but I still think they are more talented and who knows. It's a total stay away from me. But if you make me pick a side, I would lean Cowboys. This game isn't I mean short week for for the Cowboys. They don't tackle anyone. It is what they did last season. They just stopped tackling people. Uh. But when you look at the Bengals, are the Bengals is gonna score any points even against this defense? The Bengals the way they scored points the last couple of weeks, they had one legitimate drive late against the Giants. They had a kickoff return touchdown, and they had that catching run. Uh you know, Tyler Boyd called a little out, turned up field and ran for like a seventy three yard touchdown in Miami. Uh. They I don't know. I don't know how they score points. But at the same time, I don't know how the Cowboys stopped them. So the world's gonna collapse upon itself and I don't know if they'll award a winner at that point. But uh, Cowboys, I guess you have to lean. The Bengals already tied an NFC East team this year. Do you wanna want to call it other tie? Yeah, that that they had a different quarterback then, But yeah, i'd uh, you just stay away from this one. I guess I I I disagree. I like the over. I think the bang you know, listen, this is gonna be the third game now for Brandon Allen. I think you know he's at home against just Gary said it. The Cowboys don't tackle, so I could see a little you know, screen to Joe Mixon going for a touchdown here, I could see, you know, passed down the sidelines to someone someone gets away. The Cowboys don't tackle. Their defense is pathetic. And I think that Dalton, though, will put up points here. I I you know, revenge game. No, but I think he's gonna want to play well there, So I think the Cowboys will put up some points. Low total forty two and a half is as low as it gets in the NFL this year. So I like the over. We should say, I think I saw today that Joe Mixon is not going to play in this game. You could legitimately project like Giovanni Bernard having three six yard touchdowns in this game, and it would be reasonable because if Cowboys they don't tell yeah, you said that they don't tackle. I mean it's uh, they don't tackle and they don't really um it seems to know what's going on a lot of times just overall. Yeah, next game, Caroline A three and a half point favorites at home against the Broncos total forty six with the hook, Gary, Yeah, I I do like the under in this one. I never like the Broncos on the road and I usually stay away from that, though I would lean Broncos for sides, but I do like the under in this one. Look, the Broncos events is played well, um, and I know there's sort of a sense of okay, well, you know they have all these banged up corners, their lithinic cornerback, and the Panthers obviously have a strength that uh at wide receiver here, but I don't know if it's quite enough. And on top of that, I look, the Broncos are just gonna go out there and run the ball thirty times in this game. And I don't think the Panthers are going to be in a situation where they're blowing out Denver here. So I like this one being low scoring and uh, certainly the Broncos hanging around and playing their style of football, which is run the ball and milk the clock. Mitch, I think you guys know where I'm going with this one. I made a rule a few weeks ago that I do not pick the Broncos games. The rule has served me very well so far. Back to you, Jimmy, I mean you have to lean Carolina here. Uh, you know, coming off a bye still in a hunt um Denver not playing for much that you know. I don't see how you can't lean Caroline here. But when I pick it, no, so you know, Uh, those are the one o'clock games for a lightning round game. Someone likes it. No, I like the under in that one. Yeah. So there you go, six four o'clock games. This Sunday. We kick it off with the Seahawks getting another New York team and they're building. The Jets go across the country Seattle minus thirteen and a half. The total is forty seven. Mitch, Yeah, this is another one. Jimmy was all over we uh, we had a little fun with you on all your underdogs, the Jets. They should have won the game out right last week. I mean everyone knows the story at this point. I guess one of the big questions in this game is how will the Jets defense respond without Greg Williams being around. Uh. We talk a lot about head coaches being fired and what the result is on the team. Um, I guess they fired defensive coordinator. You'd think it might have the same impact, where if he's really unpopular with the players, they might get a little bump. Um And maybe not just unpopular, but the kind of guy who would dial up a zero blitz in that situation isn't around to do that anymore, so maybe they'll have slightly more sensible play calling. Um. The other fun thing to watch in this game is gonna be Jamal Adams, by the way, and this one I think does qualify as a revenge game, and it feels like they're going to do all kinds of stuff with him. I feel like he desperately wants to have a sack at some point in this game, and possibly two of them, and might not leave the field until he does that. And I wouldn't bet against him doing that. Um. But you know the Jets at some point, it's like how deflated and tired are they of hearing about everything? You know? Oh, and sixteen is a real possibility, and not just because they're bad and they're own twelve already, but you look at their schedule and they have got at Seattle at the Rams against the Browns, and then at the Patriots, which would be a very fun game if they are owned fifteen and Bill Belichick has a chance to finish off the O and sixteen season. All that said, and you guys know that I am high on Seattle frequently. I just think that line is too high. They have not won a game by fourteen points all year, and they haven't won a game by more than ten since Week one. I know they haven't played a team as bad as the Jets, but that still is a little troubling. They just have not been that team to come in and just blow somebody out. Last week, I bet Seattle to cover minus ten, and we saw how that one ended, So it would be very fitting for me to lose this one. I think in either direction. It's like, I'm a little scared to pick anything, but I just don't see how you can pick Seattle do uh to win a game by two touchdowns right now? So getting thirteen and a half the Jets they hung in last week, not just hung in how to lead most of the way. I think they can play at least at least keep it to ten twelve points here this week. I like the Jets now. I think the I think the numbers a little too big. I do like the over in this one. I do think there's a game where I mean, look, if you're Seattle and you've had these sort of the sort of bumpy couple of weeks offense of Lee, just go out there. I mean, they just don't have cornerbacks who can cover your receivers. Just go out there, throw it a ton, uh see what happens. I know they had protection issues. I know Russ is kind of struggling to uh to see things right now, but I can't think the Jets are gonna be able to do anything particularly complicated after firing their defensive coordinator going to this one. So I think Seattle puts the points. I think the Jets go out there and throw it around and and and open things up for Sam Donald. He probably throws like, uh, I don't know, three touchdowns and six interceptions and we get a game that ends up being like, uh, you know, thirty five twenty five or something like that. But um, and I will answer your question, Mitch. You know what Jamal Adams is going to do in this game. He's going to blitz a lot because he cannot cover anyone spy. You end up with eight sacks and will give up three touchdowns and coverage. And that's the Jamal Adams week. I don't think Jamal Adams will be a difference maker of this one. I like Seattle a lot. You're laying less than two touchdowns raw sil Wilson hasn't played well for about six weeks. There's not going to be a more perfect remedy than the Jets with no secondary coming in. The Jets had their chance for their one win last week. I thought that was gonna be a chance where they could get the w. Obviously everyone knows what happened. Now they go across the country. I think demoralized and um just from a talent standpoint, here, you know Seattle losing last week to the Giant. Everything here points to Seattle. Usually when that happens, it doesn't work that way. But I'll be the sucker and lay the thirteen and a half because to me, all the signs point I can't find one reason how the Jets covered. The only the Jets cover here is if Seattle gets up by one late back door two point conversion something like that. Next game, the Colts go into Vegas, where those Raiders beat the Jets last week Colts minus three total fifty one. Garry. Yeah, this one's a stay away from me. I mean, look at the only thing I'll say is the Raiders are a team, uh that will just kind of hang around with everyone. I think their games from here on in, like they have for most of the season, they're gonna come down to like one or two plays one way or another. Uh. They don't forced turnovers. And they that one game in Atlanta where they just completely melted down. Uh, they really don't turn the ball over. So you know, it's a cult team that sort of wants to play in a somewhat similar manner where you run a lot, you win with defense. I think it's just two sort of conservative teams going at each other. And I think it's the kind of game that, uh, you know, the culture better. I think the culture much better team. But I think this is one that you know, kind of like what you saw on I don't know what day of the week that was. Now it was a Monday or Tuesday when Washington ups at Pittsburgh. Uh yeah, it's beautiful, It's yeah, it's it's just you know, like that type of game is a game where it comes down to basically three fourth and one place and the Washington gets one, Pittsburgh mrs two and and that's how the game swings. So I think it's that type of game here, and that's why I kind of stay away from that one. Mitch, Yeah, I'll be I'll be a little brief on this one. I like the Coults here. Um. They are healthier on defense, and I think that's been a recipe for them all year. They've had stretches where they've been sin guys, most notably in that Titans game, and that's been a problem. But when they're at full strength and I talked about Darius Leonard a lot because they missed him for a chunk in the early middle ish part of the season. When they're at full strength, they're a very good defensive team and that's what they need, um, and I think that's how they're gonna win games. You know, I still think that the Titans are better than them in the a f C South, but uh, you know, we will see how it plays out. I think the Cults are good enough to beat struggling and bad teams and the Raiders. It's just really hard to know what version of them is going to show up. We all know the story with them. You know, they played the Chiefs really tough twice, they beat him once, and the last two weeks they just haven't been that good. So I think this one. I like the Cults, but not enough to make it the best bet, so it's more of a stay away. I love the Cults, probably love them more than any game on the board this week. I you know, listen, we come in with numbers and you try to analyze moods and cross country or early start time is that, you know, and sometimes it's just well, what's the better team? The Cults are the better teams, that's not debatable. Cults last four games they scored twenty thirty four. Raiders last three games have given up twenty thirty five. I love the Cults here. I think they get an easy win minus three. Um, that's gonna be my big bet of the week. Next game Green, actually we're gonna skip. That will go to the lightning round that when the next game is uh. The Saints giving six and a half in Philly obviously hurts in for Wentz total forty four. Mitch, Yeah, Taysom Hill looks likely to start. So this will be his fourth NFL start and the second time that he is the more experienced quarterback of the QB matchup. I will say I only say this a lot. I've rooted for the Philadelphia Eagles my entire life. You absolutely have to like the Saints here. The Eagles are such a mess for many reasons. We have discussed and I don't even you know, I'm numb to saying it and explaining it. Uh you know, I'm like, I can't even feel any feelings about them at this point. The Saints, they've been beating teams by double digits for the most part several times. Last week was a close game, but we talked about that ahead of time. It's you know, it's a weird situation. You're playing a division opponent for the second time in three weeks. Those things happen. They held on at the end for a five point when so that doesn't worry me too much about the Saints and how they're playing right now. But you know, I just have no confidence in the Eagles and they're switching the Jalen Hurts at this point. Given how Carson Wentz played, it's impossible to say if that's gonna help or not. Doug Peterson said he's looking for a spark, which is the thing that every coach ever has said when he benches the starter for the backup. They're looking for the spark. Uh. I don't know if that's actually gonna happen. They still are going to have a lot of the same problems. The offensive line is hurt, and in shamples, the receivers haven't been good enough. The team doesn't run the ball. Uh, you know, and you look at their point told his last weeks. Last week they had sixteen because of a punt return touchdown. The week before that they got to seventeen because of a hail Mary and a two point conversion at the end of the game. So in many ways, the Eagles have actually been worse than some of the numbers suggest, which is part of the reason for the switch. So you know, is Jalen Hurts gonna suddenly catch the Saints? I surprise, I don't you know. I don't know how you could have confidence in that. I like the Saints here. I'm actually a little surprised it's only a touchdown given the way these teams have been trending. So I will I think for the second time in three weeks, be best betting against my Eagles. Yeah, limited quarterback in Jalen Hurts at this point in his career. So you know, Carson want Carson Wentz was a huge problem, but you know what else was a huge problem everything else in the Eagles offense. So dropping Jalen Hurts in there, it's just I don't see how it possibly works. Uh. And and I hope I'm wrong, And I hope Jalon Hurts is great, but I don't think he's going to be so. I like the Saints here, and I will point out I don't think this is an edge anymore. I think everyone's sort of used to this at this point. But last two years when Breeze has been on the line of its Bridgewater last year it's Taysom Hill this year, eight no, straight up, eight no against the spread. So my hearty congratulations to Sewan here. That's an unbelievable stat. Yeah, eight no the last two years against the spread without Breeze. Wow, that's a good nugget right there. You know, for me, it's a stay away. I don't like playing these games when there's a new quarterback who I haven't seen you know we so a little bit obviously last weekends of Packers. I want to see what Jalen Hurts does here. You know, it's so tempting because you're giving less the line six and a half, You're given less than a touchdown. You think the Saints get that done. Um, But I tend to stay away from games where I got to see a quarterback play before I'm going to decide what I'm gonna do with with my wagers. The next game, Washington in San fran Niners minus three total forty three and a half. Gary. Look, I like the forty Niners. I I just I guess I can't keep on packing against Washington because I mean this this whole approach of uh, We're going to stand in place and wait until you make a make a series of mistakes and you know, will end up making the one or two plays while you miss your one one or two plays and will win games that way. Uh, It's it's working. I think it's a third way to play football in working, so I can't argue against it. Logically, the Fortyers are the pick here, but nothing has been logical about this uh football team run for I mean the team that has no name in in what what is this I'm looking at right now? By the way, Draft Kings, that line is now up to three and a half. By the way it is Washington. Excuse me, Sam Fran minus three and a half. Mitch, Yeah, So, uh listen. I was all over what happened to the four Niners last week. I knew they were not gonna beat the Bills, and then Josh Allen looked very good. And I've been relatively low on the Bills, um, but then they won that game pretty easily, pulling away um the forty Niners. I give a ton of credit to Kyle Shanahan and the whole coaching staff. I think they've done a really impressive job given how many players have been out and missed a lot of time, and how good those players were that they've lost. But they really have been in consistent. They've had a couple of those games that you look at them and they're like, wow, you know, give it up colaps for Kyle Shannon, the you know, season sweep of the Rams, they went over the Patriots. You know, they've had some games, but they have been inconsistent. They haven't done that every week, and that's not I'm not like ripping them for being a fraud team or inconsistent. It's just really hard to do that. Uh, given all of the issues that they've had. I mean, they're five and seven right now, and I think given all the injuries they've had, if they were three and nine, a lot of people would just wave it away and say, you know, super Bowl hangover, injuries, these things happen. It's a wasted season. They're still gonna be good next year. But you know, I give them credit, but I listen, Uh, they've had plenty of games where you thought they were gonna do well. That Dolphins game stands out in particular, the Eagles game in prime time. Those are a little bit earlier in the season. Um, but I look at this and I love Washington getting three and a half. Um they are so the Niners. Remember they're in it's not in San Francisco. They are in Arizona, and it's their second game. They're they're quote unquote home game in Arizona. I don't know if that helps them because they're like settled in or whatever, or if they that's worse because they've been on the road and they're going to continue to be on the road for much longer. Um, both of these teams are on short week, short weeks, and I will say Washington they traveled for both of those games, So that is you would think an edge for the forty nine ers because at least they're not on a plane every other day like Washington has been for these back to back road games on short weeks. But I just think that's a big half a point here. We all saw what Washington did being the first team to beat the Steelers, and their defense is playing really well, and I think, you know, they're showing that they can travel and you look at them, they are Washington is allowed the third fewest points in the NFC and they're trending up. Um. You know, they are the only team in the NFC East that has a positive point differential even though they're five and seven, And I just think they deserve a little more respect than to be three and a half point underdogs on what's essentially a neutral field against a team that's uh, hasn't hasn't played better than them over the last month, last six weeks or whatever. So you know, wouldn't surprise me at all if they win this game out right and to at three and a half points, I'm all over it. Gary already did this one. I'm done talking about the football team I got I Jimmy, Jimmy, I gotta say this is like a third year due in the show. That's the first time you've done that. Oh really, yeah, it's very impressive. I usually mess up. Um. I like the under in this game a ton. I think that Washington defense is uh, for real. I don't think Nick Mullins is gonna put up a ton of points, and obviously the Niner defense I think against Alex Smith is a great matchup. So forty three and a half is a low total this year, but I like that under a lot. Next game, the Falcons go into l A to play the Chargers, probably the two weirdest teams in the NFL. So God only knows what's gonna happen in this. This is This is like the only game you look at and say, like I could see this being forty forty three Falcons, where I could see it being forty to three Chargers. This this game should come with like an n s f W warning on it, because God only knows what's gonna take place. Falcons two and a half point favorites total forty nine and a half. Somehow, you know, the Falcons lost their coach. Somehow, the Chargers still have their coach and nothing short of a miracle. I don't bet Chargers games, so I have nothing to say. So we'll just go right to Mitch on this one. I am looking at my notes. I prepare notes for each game going to the show. First thing I wrote down, Jimmy's gonna love this game. I just knew this. I know how you feel about the Chargers that I knew you're gonna be all over this one. Um, I I go Falcons here, another one of these games that I love. Uh, just I'm just not gonna be scared off by these road teams favored by less than a field goal when I think they're the better team and I think they're gonna win. Um, the Chargers that you know last week is just such a low point. That is that's the kind of game where teams do fire the coach afterward, and the fact that they didn't is you know, and I get it all the you know every other already every article you read or podcast you'll listen to. They talked about Anthony Lynn and they they start with the big wind up of I love Anthony Lynn as a person and a man, and he's great. However, I think they need to fire him, and and I think, you know, it's it's legitimate, and it's how people feel about him that everyone feels it's necessary to give that preamble. But I mean, we all know that he's going to be out at the end of the year. And it was a little surprising that they didn't just fire him right then and there because that was such a disaster. I just I don't know how they come back from that. And the Falcons, You're right, they are playing better under Raheem Morris and they've won three out of their last five and both of those losses are against the Saints. So you know, again, New Orleans is a very good team. I don't want to make too much of those losses. It's, you know, division opponent. They kept the second game close. So the Falcons, let's remember that how well they've been. And I think they are kind of a little bit sneaky. You know, a month ago we were talking about them is being so improved. And then just because they lost to the Saints a couple of times, Uh, doesn't mean, they necessarily haven't, and the Chargers they just lose every week. Um, you know, I think possibly. I don't know what the line would be if this game was a week ago and we didn't see that Chargers game, but I just think the Falcons being favored by less than a field goal here, I think they're gonna win the game. So I think you have to take the bet at minus two and a half. I look, I'm I'm backing away from this one entirely. I certainly have to do that for last week, but I do want to, you know, I'm gonna take this opportunity to give a quick shout out to Mitch Gold this year. Um, he's been talking to the road teams all year. He's doing that before the season started. So this isn't like a Johnny Hill play the type of thing. But road teams ninety six and one on the year, which obviously you don't usually see such an even split like that. So there has been a big advantage for the road teams in in twenty twenty. It's been my strategy for like five years and then this year and finally, uh, they're they're winning games out right. I don't know how it happened, and maybe my record. Here's how that happened. You don't have fans threatening your life for three and a half hours and distracting you while you're playing. That's how it happened. It would make sense. And this year and no fans in this stands. Next game tame is the Sunday night game. It's a great one. Pittsburgh at Buffalo Bills two point favorites, total forty eight. Gary. Yeah, it is a great one and it breaks my heart anytime I have to pick against the Bills. But I really do like the Steelers in this one. I'm glad the Steelers lost. I think getting that sort of undefeated sheen off of them makes everyone look at them a little more objectively. I mean quite frankly. Every time did the Power rankings, I had the Steelers have like six and just got any day. But oh they're undefeated, just like yeah, but they're like the six best team in football, so it doesn't matter what their record is, um, but they are look at that they're a little better than the Bills. This isn't like a huge mismatch or anything. And like we just talked about, the road teams are are are hanging on okay this year. Uh. The one really interesting thing here is and obviously we're too far out to really uh look at a forecast or see what's gonna happen. Josh Allen has not been great in these weather games this year. You remember you played poorly in the rain against the Chiefs. Uh. And Allen has been quite good against pressure this year, but he hasn't been pressured very much. The Steelers is gonna pressurehim a ton, so he's gonna be under pressure. Maybe it's a weather game, but regardless of that, I think the Steelers get a lot of pressure on him and we'll see if that sort of frows him a little bit. Looks like no Joe Hayden possibly in this one, so that that makes things a little bit tougher for the Steelers to match up with a good group of Bills receivers here. But I think this might be doing the math, you never know what Josh Allen's gonna do week to week, but doing the math, I think this might being off week for Josh Allen. And I think this one is one where the Steelers go up and and steal a game. Mitch, Yeah, Gary, I agree with a lot of what you said about the Steelers, and I think that oftentimes is a good thing. I mean, it's so so stupid we're sitting here psychoanalyzing these football players, but we do it every year where a lot of times, uh, you know, a team finally loses and the pressure of being undefeated is released, and then it's like everyone can breathe again and play. Like Mike Tomlin seemed to like it, seemed like he was piste off and like annoyed to be undefeated because he wanted to rip into his team and talk about all the areas they had to improve. And I guess now I can finally do that. Uh. This this is a great game. I'm very excited to watch this on Sunday Night football. It's a stay away from me here um, And I think actually I feel the same way about Sunday Night and Monday Night. Uh spoiler. Two good games that I'm excited to watch. But they're close. I could see either team winning if you maybe pick our with lean Steelers, but I'm happy to just leave this one alone. I love the Bills here. Um. First of all, most importantly, the game will be called by Mike Terriko's on the SI Media podcast this but also you know Gary mentioned no Joe Hayden. They lost Bud Dupree the week before. So where I agree with Gary that you know, listen, you hold your breath a little bit. With Josh Allen putting back to back great games together, the Steeler defense is depleted there in the secondary. Steelers have not played well for weeks, going back to that game against the Cowboys, UM, A couple of other games in there where they were not on top of their game. And the Bills, I think, you know, even with no fans on Monday night in that place, uh, and you're laying lessen a field goal with the home team. I know we've gone through where home road is not as significant this year, but I think Buffalo uh coming home. You know, steel has had that wacky week playing on a Wednesday, Um, I uh, Tuesday, I should say, I guess this week, Um, it's impossible to remember. Yeah, I think with dupre and Hayten out there laying less than a field goal, to me, it's a it's a really strong play on the Bills Monday night, Brown's two point favorites against the Ravens. Talking about teams who have had crazy scheduling total forty seven. Mitch, Yes, so I already uh teased at a time. I'm not going to have anything on this game, but I'm excited to watch it. I'm a lot more excited to watch this game than I was a week ago. Um, you know, the ray I know it's just Dallas, but I liked what I saw from the Ravens. Just seeing them back on the field, seeing Lamar Jackson healthy, seeing them play raven style football. I think that was a great get right game for them and the Browns. Obviously, you can't say an about what they did in the first half against the Titans. Um, you know, it's tempting. I'm tempted to take the Ravens here, thinking that the Browns can't do that every week, But I just I don't feel strongly enough to best better. This is honestly, more than anything, I'm just excited to watch this game on Monday night. The fantasy football playoffs are here, batchups are gonna be coming down to the wire. I don't need any gambling on top of that. Uh, let those let's let this game sort those out. Should be a fun one to watch, but but no, Lane, it's a real toss up for me here. Yeah, I like the Ravens a lot. And and look, I've sort of downplayed the Browns all year and and and I'm sorry uh for that for the folks in northeast Cleveland. But a couple of things. The Ravens do still generate a lot of pressure. Baker's splits pressure versus non pressure that they're enormous. I mean he is, Uh, he's been terrible when pressured this year. Uh. Look for the Browns, that comes down to are they going to get a lead early and and be able to do all that bootleg play action stuff and and sort of open up the game that way. Uh, that's there, that's their path to winning this one if that doesn't happen. And I think at the very least these are I think I'd be very generous to say these are even teams. I do think the Ravens are better than the Browns. But you know, it has to be that scenario last week where you know, Brown's got a munch of turnover, they got a fourth down stop, they gotta turnover. H they put up a couple of touchdowns early. I just don't think that happens against this Ravens defense, and uh look, Ravens have dominated them in two straight matchups here. I do think Baltimore goes out there and wins this game. Yeah, you know, it's a stay away from me because the Browns are one of those teams. I just I haven't been able to get a field for it all year. If I'm on them, they lose. If I'm not on them, they win. Um you know who would have who? Who thought they'd come out last week in Tennessee and do what they did. I can't get a read on the Browns. So I gotta stay away from the game. Um yeah, even the total, it's hard for me to you know, I'd go over. I'd lean over on that seven, But then you know, the Browns come out and give you one of these games where they're gonna run every down and the clock's going, and so it's a stay away from me. The last game, the only game we haven't talked about, the Lightning Round game we none of us really love the game is green Bay minus seven and a half at Detroit. The total is I didn't even think we needed it. It's one game, but I'm glad we got the sound in green Bay minus seven, and I have total fifty five. I just you know, listen, obviously you think Packers here, but Green Bay and Detroit always seems like weird things happen, and you know, so for me, it's a stay away. Um let's go to Gary on that one. Yeah, I mean obviously, look at that Lions game they beat the Bears with Matthew Staffords sort of put them on their back a little bit and getting some breaks there. So uh, you know, I think a lot of times i'd say, boy, you know, familiar opponent coming into Detroit, even in the Matt Patricia years. Uh, they held up well enough defensively. I don't know. I mean it's it's the guy who was calling your defets has gone. You're not very talented on that side of the ball anyway. I'm not sure they get a lot of stops in this game. Uh So I I kind of like the over, but that's also that's just too hi in the mid fifties. So I back off this one altogether. And and look that's why it's in the lightning round. High is total of the week, Mitch. Yeah, you know, I I don't know, Eileen Packers here, Um, you know they did the Lions did finally get a win after they got rid of Matt Patricia Um, which was kind of the expected post coach firing bump. Um. I don't think that's gonna happen again, two weeks in a row against this Packers team. You know, you look back and the win in week two a long time ago for both these teams. So that was a comfortable win, and you would think the Packers can do that again. Um. You know, I just I think everyone's got the same read on this, right, every we all like the Packers. It's just that the line is a little bit too big to take and that's probably the reason it's it's in this round that it is all right. That wraps up the analysis for the board. We will now go to our best bet segment. Alrighty, good sound effect. Best bets? We did okay last week. Let's see if we can get some wins here in week fourteen. For the listeners, Mitch kick us off. Alright, well, if you start with me, we're gonna be here all day. I told you I don't know what got into be I I just I love the board. I hope my enthusiasm came through talking about all these games. I have seven best bets, which is a season record for me. Let's do it six. Anyone's ever had seven. It's it's a podcast record. Last season, We're gonna have to look we have a Yeah, no one did it this year. I'm gonna look at you, guys are going We have the twenty nineteen tab in the Google doc here. Seven teams, six of them are on the road. I just double checked all the numbers because we had a few that there was a little discrepancy we talked about. But I'm gonna get that two and a half points for the Giants there, so I'll start there. Giants plus two and a half, my only home team playing Arizona. And then my road teams. I've got Minnesota plus six and a half in Tampa, Houston, my this one in Chicago, the Jets to cover their plus thirteen and a half at Seattle, Saints minus six and a half in Philly, the football team plus three and a half at San Francisco, although that game is really in Arizona, as we know, and then the Falcons minus two and a half at the Chargers. I got six. Jimmy correct me on the lines when I get to the end here if I if I screwed up any I'm going to take the Steelers plus two and a half at Buffalo. I'm going to take the dog don't place two, don't get I'll still take him plus two a Buffalo when the game out right, Actually Dolphins plus seven versus Kansas City Ravens minus two at Cleveland. Correct, No, no, no, no, it's Cleveland minus two. Now even better? Yeah, Oh, I just wrote it down wrong. Sorry that that that makes a whole lot more sense together. Oh my goodness is a mess. Uh you look, it's it's back to the full schedule, and I just can't you don't listen. You have Baltimore plus two, Baltimore plus two, and then my my three totals Titans Jaguars under fifty two, Panthers and two and a half. You'll need that. Possibly Panthers Broncos under forty six and a half. Correct, Jets Seahawks over a half. What terrible? There you go, terrible podcast, just terrible. Sorry, I can report back. As long time loyal listeners of the show may remember, Jimmy Trana himself had seven best bets in Week seventeen of two thousand nineteen. Jim, I don't know if you remember. You want to guess what your record was last year? No, nobody cares. Three. That was desperation right there. Four and three not bad. I'm worried about this year. I got five for you here this week under forty five Cardinals, Giants, Colts minus three, Bills minus two. Little head to head with Gary, always like that. Over forty two and a half Cowboys, Bengals, and the Seahawks. Turn it around with the Jets and cover thirteen and a half points. So that is a busy Week four team. Good luck to everybody out there. We'll be back next week for Week fifteen. We got the Saturday games starting next week, so it's all coming together as the season winds down. Be careful out there with the wages this time of year. Stay on top of the injuries, who's playing, who's not playing. It's very important as we get late in the season. All right, good luck with your wages this week. We'll see you next week right here on the mm QB Gambling Podcast.

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