Handicapping NFL Week 13: A Week of Big Underdogs and Colt McCoy Fever | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Dec 4, 2020, 9:00 AM

Jimmy, Mitch and Gary break down the Week 13 lines while fully in fear of the next backdoor cover. Can Washington hang with the Steelers? Can the Jets pick off a wounded Raiders team? Will the Rams contain Kyler? And will the potentially Colt McCoy-led Giants hang around in Seattle?

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M Welcome everyone to the m MQB Gambling Podcast, Week thirteen. Already in the NFL, I'm one of the coast Jimmy Trainett, joined as always by Mitch Goldig and Gary Gramling, as we take you around the league and get you set up with some handicapping talk with all of these games played at wacky times, wacky days. I went three and two with my best bets last week, Gary, your best bets last and not good? Two and three. Uh, it looked at that that Giants, That Giants game is just it's sticking in my craw as a as young people say. Even without Daniel Jones, it looked like they were still gonna get that cover in Cincinnati until Brandon Allen just just a heroic Montana like late game drive to get the back door cover there for Cincinnati. Mitch, how do you do? Yeah? I don't know what cut off Gary thinks qualifies as young people. Uh. If that's the expression he thinks, because he isn't. I was one in three this week, you know I was should have been better. I had the Raiders minus three in Atlanta very close to covering, had me on the edge of my seat till the very end of the game and then sadly you know what they was by third be something points. That was a tough one. Jimmy, you were against me in that game and then the other one, and we were on this together. The Chiefs went up big early in Tampa and then gave up a tough backdoor cover. Um a couple of Mike Evans touchdown catches, which actually did help me in fantasy, but it was not good for me in this case. And then I actually I got lucky with my one win, my my, I called it my lock of the week was the Seahawks over the Eagles. And I would have best bet them in almost any number last week. Uh. Fortunately when we taped early in the week, they were at minus five, and then later in the week they were up around six, six and a half, and so I know a lot of people who bet on the Seahawks. It was a terrible best beat, the best bad beat, slright, I can't speak a bad beat. One of the worst of the season. Uh, the Richard Rogers hail Mary and then the two point conversion. But I escaped with a nice little wind the Seahawks minus five. I don't know how that happened, so maybe I should be okay with one and three. For full disclosure, I was three and two last week, but I am on what might be one of the top three worst stretches of my gambling life. I had the Steelers on Wednesday, so you get the trace McSorley garbage t d to ruin that cover I had. In the Seahawk game, I had bet the Seahawks minus two and a half second half. They were up six three when they got the hell Mary touchdown. And then on Sunday I had bet over thirty points for the Chiefs. They scored seventeen in the first quarter and then basically stopped trying. And the week before was the Vikings against the Cowboys. So I am on an all time bad stretch here, So don't listen to anything I say over the next thirty forty minutes. Jimmy, I'll actually say I am also um. I do the I Pick along with the Super Contest every week, and I tweet out my spreadsheet with all my picks through the years. And I started sixteen and one and I was on a nice pace, one of my better seasons, and since then I'm like four fifteen and won the last four weeks. I am a mess, uh and it's like one of the worst stretches. I'm now having the worst season I've had in like eight years. It's said over twenty three and a half points for the Chargers. Thank you Anthony Lynn for not knowing how to coach the football game. All right, enough of me complaining. Let's see what we got here. In Week thirteen. We kick it off with those Raiders who did a number on Mitch last week. They are eight point road favorites against the worst team in football in New York Jets. The total is forty six and a half. Gary Jets smushed him last year. I am gonna back off of this one just because I do think this is I don't know where the Readers go from here. It's kind of gotten away from them at this point. And like I said, they've over achieved all year. They had a really nice season. But um, I'm not reading too much into that laws in Atlanta, but this just feels like the kind of game where I don't know, they come out flat, and I mean whatever, the Jets, they just hang around with teams. They've shown that they can do this. But I'm I'm staying away from this one. I guess i'd lean Raiders, and I haven't feeling with one of your best betting Raiders here, which I was gonna say. I think Mr Trana likes this game because there's a reason. Uh, they are not in the lightning round at the end of the show, and Gary and I are not that reason. Um yeah, I mean, I can't pick the Raiders after what they did to me last week, just on principle, I can't come back to that. But then, how can you actually bet on the Jets even if you do think they're gonna cover. Um, you know, they went up. They they've been competitive, like those Jets games. You watch them against the Patriots and the Chargers and they're in it and you think, well, I can hang around by eight, But you know, last week against a better defense in Miami, they just warrant. This is a stay away from me. You think about maybe the under if the Jets are only gonna score like six or not end points here. Um, But I don't know. I'm tempted to I even saying that I could talk myself into leaning Jets just given what the Raiders did last week. But I think I'm staying away here. The pot is off to a great start because you both think I like the Raiders and I'm gonna but I'd ever utter in my life. I like the Jets. Gary said it. The Jets have been hanging around the last few weeks. It wasn't good against Miami, hung around against the Charger, against the Chargers, Raiders in Atlanta last week, now in New Jersey. Um, I think eight points for the Raiders to be giving on the road is very high, even for a team as bad as the Jets are. The Jets gonna win New but an eight point, you know, eight points is a lot and um, you know, listen, you could joke all you want about Trevor Lawrence, take the Jets want to win a game, and I think this might be the one that, you know, maybe they pull this out there at home. Raiders, I think their season ended last week. Um, So you know, I don't like saying it, but I kind of like the Jets. It's a good clip to put. Can we put the pot on hold? I need to take a shower right now after saying we have to put that. Get that clip of you saying I like the Jets on size Instagram blast that out to everybody that's that's definitely first, Yes, exactly all right. Next game on the board, the Titans at home, giving five and a half points to the Browns. The total here is fifty three and a half. Mitch, Yeah, Brown Tites. This is like an old school like two teams that want to run the ball, Like maybe the two uh most run heavy teams in the league, whether you're talking about like actual uh percentage of runs are just like how much they want to do it. I guess the Vikings are on that list too. Um, but yeah, and and like a couple kind of i'd say, like middle of the pack rushing defenses, so they ought to be able to have some success. Um. Sometimes these are games where you know, I look at the line and I like the idea of taking the under because both teams, I think they just want to run the ball, and you think about those like long possessions where the clock keeps moving and you just kind of shorten the game. The trouble with the Titans is that they do have a bunch of games where they'll score like thirty five points because even though that's what they want to do, they can just like accidentally score an E d or touchdown any time they throw the ball to a J. Brown and he can just take off and go. Um. As for the line itself, I mean, I think actually like five point five is is kind of right. You know, my gut kind of wants to pick the Browns to keep it close, and and you know, I can see it coming down to a field goal, but I don't know, the Browns don't really I think the Titans are gonna win the game, and the Browns don't really strike me as like a backdoor cover team. I think a lot of times that's like you think about a team that's down maybe ten points and they're gonna throw the ball at the end, And I think the Browns they're just their offense is much better off when they're running the ball. They're like a front running team. You want to get them ahead and see them get into their running game. So it's tempting to pick the Browns, but I am gonna go with that under um, what's the number? The numbers fifth, three and a half. And you know the Titans have been over that a couple of times. They had a high scoring game against the Colts, inflated a little by that kickoff return on the on site kick at the end. But it feels like they've had a lot of games under that number. The Browns have had a bunch of low scoring games throughout the year, So I I like it. I rarely best bet a total. I almost always go sides and almost always exclusively road teams. But um yeah, I like the under here. I think we're gonna keep the clock moving, a nice fast game and see the Titans come out on top in a like a seven three kind of game. No, I could, I could see that. I like damach. Uh, Yeah, this is a tough game for me. Look, I'm back and away from it. I think the Titans are are better than the Browns. I think the number is pretty much right on on this one as far as the sides go. Uh And look, I don't have a whole lot to to say about this that I've been curious to see how the Browns would do over a little run here where they actually get to play in normal weather games. Uh. The offense was I thought it was fine. Last week in Jacksonville, Baker had a couple of sort of low light misses in the end zone that I think everyone's sort of uh, you know, having some fun with or whatever you want to say. But I thought they were mostly fine. I just think the Titans are are are better than the Browns and and probably uh probably get right around that number. So that is literally the worst gambling inside I could possibly give on this game. Yeah, I don't have a feel for this one. Um, I don't trust the Browns here to cover. I would lean Titans. I think they're rolling pretty good. Um, but I don't know some reason, I just I don't like the game. Um, you know, you guys hit on the head. The Browns with that running game, Derrick Henry Clocks should be moving, you know, maybe you don't cover five and a half. It's a backdoor. I I lean Titans, but I don't love the game, so to stay away from me. The next game, the Vikings are at home, giving ten points to the Jaguars total fifty two. Gary. Yeah, I have a I have a slight Vikings lean here. Look, they're they're in it. And I feel like I've written this team off like three or four times at some point in the season and just said, you know, they have nothing to play for, so how can you bet on them? But obviously they're right back in their game out of the playoffs at this point. And uh, look this Jacksonal team. I don't know, they just they stink. I I didn't think they were gonna cover last weekends Cleveland and they did. Uh. Their individual parts are not good. Um. I guess the coaching job is slightly overachieved with them the fact that they've actually been in games. But I don't know. It just feels like the Vikings might win this one by a couple of touchdowns. The only thing to keep it in mind with the Vikings, and I know they had to win in dramatic fashion over the Panthers last week. I mean they gave up two fumble return touchdowns in a ten seconds span. So uh, that's that's probably not something that's going to happen on a week to week basis. So lean Vikings here, but probably just stay away, yeah Gary, Uh, practically reading from my notes there, I felt the same. I picked the Vikings to win the NFC North before the season, and then I gave up on this team so fast earlier in the year, and now I'm getting whiplash from hopping back on the bandwagon and following them. But I don't know, this is just such a weird game. And the Jaguars, I think I read this correctly. They are starting Mike Glennan again, even though Gardner Minshew is healthy. They've just decided to give glenn in another week. Am I correct about that? Like what a strange season? Yeah, exactly. Um, I don't know. And then the Jaguars their team, they they well, they didn't clean house, they got rid of the GM, but they kept the coach and they do seem like they're playing hard for him. I just did I mention. I can't even remember if I said this at the top of the show or if I said it to you guys before we started taping. I hate all the games this week, just the whole board. There are a lot of these, and I feel like this happens this time of year where you'll just get these double digit point spreads and a lot of these games where where you just have to decide if one team's you know, interested in playing or not. And I don't know. And now the Vikings, normally I'd be like all in, but then they've got stories of out like as Dalvin Cook worn down and he's getting asked about that every day. Um so the spread feels a little bit too high. But then you know, I don't want to take the Jaguars here with Mike Glennon, so I guess I kind of lean the Jaguars. I feel like I'm picking some close games and a lot of these high spreads. I'm I'm leaning towards the underdogs. I think that'll be a common theme for me today. But I think I'm staying away here. This is bizarre week. I like the Jets, I like the Jaguars. I think ten is a high line. I think Glennon is serviceable. I'm not a gardener mincher guy at all, so I don't mind Glennon in there. I wouldn't have picked him if the other quarterback was there. I forgot his name already, who played for a couple of weeks. Yeah, uh, so I like Glennon there. I don't trust the Vikings to cover ten points spread. Uh you know, feeling outlast week, He'll probably be back, but who knows, you know, if he's a hundred percent. Mitch mentioned the Dalvin Cook situation. I just I feel like lately, especially the last three or four weeks, the big, big spreads are not getting covered. So ten points Vikings, I'll take I'll take the points in the Jaguars here and hold my breath. Next game, good one, Saints giving two and a half in Atlanta, who have played much better since getting rid of their head coach. The total is forty five and a half. Mitch, Yeah, so this one is is very interesting in that it's Taysom Hill's third game and it's already his second against Atlanta in three weeks, so you know, you wonder. And actually that first game against Atlanta, they didn't even tell them. They didn't tell anyone who who was starting until like the last possible minute, um, too late for ESPN Fantasy. So you know this time they not only have film on Taysom Hill, but they can also spend the whole week preparing for him, unless unless they just start Jamis. Wouldn't that that would just be the greatest move, Jimmy, Like you're a wrestling fan, wouldn't that that feels like a wrestling storyline. If at the last second they pull it out and they say we're starting Jamis this week after you prepared for Taysom Hill, I would love that feels unlikely to happen. Um, this was a close game a couple of weeks ago, and I know you look at the final scores and the Saints seems like they won kind of convincingly the last two weeks. I mean the Denver game, throw that one out because you know whatever. But um, Atlanta was up nine three kind of late in the second quarter, and then the Saints scored to touchdown. They're up ten nine and a half time, and then they won the second half fourteen nothing to pull away. Um, But it just look at these I think you just have to pick the Saints. I mean, they're a better team. I know the Falcons have been playing better with Rheem Morris as the interim coach, but you know there's still a three and seven team getting less than a field goal against one of the best teams in the conference. And I just think you have to go Saints here. Um, with the spread under a field goal, I expect them to win. There's no reason not to expect them to cover two and a half points. Um. You know, home field advantage of a thing. But you know these are both like dome teams. So even though the games in Atlanta, like, I don't think any team has an advantage on the conditions, and yes, there's footage on Taysom, but also you'd think that the Saints have a better idea, Like none of us really knew what he could do as a start quarterback now that uh defensives of defenses have seen him for two weeks, but so is Sean Payton, and you'd think that he could look at him and say, Okay, now we can game plan for him now that we know what he can actually do when he's in the lineup play in a full sixty minute. So I do I like the Saints here? I do like the Saints. It's more of a pick against the Falcons. I'm gonna get that in the second. But I really like the under in this one. I mean, look like said you get the you get the the Tasom for a second time factor here for the Falcons, And look, last time these teams face, Falcons couldn't block the Saints. Falcons receivers can't get open um. The Saints dominated them defensively in the Saints and is really good defensively. Going back to that that that that blowout in Tampa Sunday night, we were all kind of saying, okay, well did they figure it out? And I think the answer is yes. So I do like the under in this one. Uh. Picking the Saints for me is more about picking against the Falcons. And this is the this is the this is the stat I dug up here. So Atlanta at home, coming off a double digit win, where you know you might say, like, oh, it was a momentum going they have failed to cover in eight of their last nine games in that scenario here. Uh. And and you know there's there's some other pro Saints stuff too going on here, But the butt on the line is the Saints the last couple of seasons, when they get into these situations where, um, you know you think maybe they're they're building up here for a big finish, they tend to they tend to fall flat. It's just what they do. And Gary, I'll just add, since you mentioned the Falcons receivers not getting open, Julio Jones is going to be out again, uh this week, and I think Todd Gurley likely to also be out, although that one might not be final. But um, just since you're talking about their receivers not getting open, it would certainly help to have Julio Jones. I love it. I'm going against Balthio. I like the Falcons. Falcons are not blowing games like they did in the beginning season. Their defense is completely changed now with Raheem Morris running the show. Taysom Hill is not gonna win all those games. He's gonna have a loss in there. I like this. Falcons at home two weeks in a row, Saints on the road two weeks in a row. I wish, wish, wish. The Falcons are getting three. I hate that it's two and a half, but I think it's gonna I think you can have an outright Falcons win here. I think they're looking there. The Falcons seemed like one of those teams that is going to enjoy being a spoiler and and and you know, make some teams, you know, pay for late season losses. So I'm going Falcons in this one. Jimmy, you are George Costanza today walking into the diner chicken salad on rye Ye Jags, Jets, Falcons. I love it. Next game, the Cults giving three and a half points in Houston to the Texans. The total here is fifty one. Gary, I'm gonna go with a total in this one. I really do like the under fifty one. I think that number is too high here. You gotta remember Texans are now without will Fuller. And I mean we've talked on the show over the years, uh and and where I had better podcast, so I would have brought up the old spreadsheet with the will Fuller splits. But the will Fuller splits are for real when it comes to Shawn Buston. It's a different offense, uh in Houston when Fuller's out. Even though you know, I'm not gonna sit here and say will Fuller is a world beater. So I think for that reason, lots of trouble scoring points here for the Texans. The culture not a team that. I mean, look, if there's a game or like let's say hyperthetically, the culture of twenty three to seven in the fourth quarters in the team that's gonna try and run up and down the field and score points quick. Not that anyone does, but it's just a team that really will lean on the run game. I mean, you know, if if you're gonna rip the Texans, you can do it through the air. Really, you can rip this Texas defense however you want for the most part. But um, I think this one stays low scoring. The Colts have a comfortable lead and it does not approach that fifty one number. Mitch. Uh yeah, Gary, you mentioned Will Fuller and we'll just say they're also without Kenny Stills, Um and also Randall Cobb who got hurt recently, so they are banged up at the receiver position. I think the key Key QT breakout game, he's gonna be all of a sudden a big part of the lineup again. But these Texas, they sucked me in every week. You know that I love by Texans. Um, I do have some concerns about the cults. You know. I picked the Titans to beat him uh and and cover last week. I did not think it was gonna be that easy. But um, you know, they were missing guys on defense, and I don't know if they're gonna be back to Forrest Buckner and Diniko Autry, we're both on the COVID list and I think they're hoping to have them back, but we don't know for sure yet. Um and trouble on offense to an Indy with Anthony Costanzo got hurt. Philip Rivers is playing hurt. Basically they said his toe is uh is hurting him but he's obviously he's gonna play. He's got that start streak. He's played every game since any of us can remember. Uh, so you wouldn't expect that to keep him in. But they are banged up, and uh, you know they're getting the hook three and a half points. Give me the Texans. I don't think I'm in the best bed at Um. The AFC South is just so weird and like the Cults are very good. You know that that week they burned me. Um that week when they beat the Packers right down to the wire two weeks ago. Um, you know they're good enough that they can beat actual good teams. But I like the Texas. They're not gonna get all the way back into it in the a f C South, but they could win a couple of these games and sneak up uh seven and nine, eight and eight, finish and be a little bit more respectable than you have thought earlier in the season. Just stay away from me, you know the way you know you would think Indie would get this, But the way Deshaun Watson is playing, I could see Houston winning this game. He's playing out of his mind. Really, Uh, totally have three and a half. You know, it's a good, good number there for the Texans, but out I don't trust him enough. I've come to respect the Cults over the last few weeks where they did earlier in the season. So stay away game from me. Next game, the Seahawks ten point favorites at home against the Giants. The total is forty six and a half. Mitch, Yeah, So you know, I looked at this and my gut said I like the Giants here. Um. You know, I like the Seahawks a lot, as you guys know. I talked about that one too, But they oftentimes they let teams hang around, and they have so many games that come down to weird plays at the end. And I was looking, so the spreads ten points. They actually haven't won by more than ten points since Week one against Atlanta. They did be at the Niners by exactly ten in week I think it was Week eight. Um, and you look at this and you say, you know, the Giants are playing well and they're probably the best team in the NFC East right now, and they're early in the season they hung with good teams and then late in the season they've been beating up bad teams. But I think The story of the game is just that Daniel Jones is gonna be out and they're gonna have Colt McCoy starting at quarterback. And you know, I just feel like that's a big, big drop off. U. I think Daniel Jones is like a little bit polarizing in some ways. UM, and he might actually be a little bit better than a lot of people think he is. UM. But I just I do not have any faith in Coulte McCoy. I feel like if this was a normal Daniel Jones game, the line would be like five points, especially knowing that the Seahawks were favored by five and a half uh to six six and a half later in the week against the Eagles. UM, you'd think that be a smaller number with the Giants who have been playing much better than the Eagles. So it's very testing, But I think I'm just gonna do it, and I'm just gonna bet against Colt McCoy. I h you know, the Seahawks have had trouble on defense, but it's still uh, you know, I I do like their ability to come up with something against UH. You know how many times in a row can I say I'm looking at my notes and I've just written Colton McCoy's name like ten times, ten lines in a row, and it just feels like such a drop off. You've got to think Seattle is gonna get through this season with a blowout somewhere. I think they can beat the Giants by double digits. Um, you know, I don't know. Maybe I'm giving Daniel Jones an m v P nod here with my analysis, but the Seahawks are gonna beat up on a on a really bad team minus their quarterback. And I'm gonna take Seattle make You're gonna look into the mirror and say Colt McCoy three times? Kind I just I didn't realize how many times, and then it just kept coming out of me, and I was like, she and he has one of those names where you gotta say the first name and the last name together so that kind of makes it stick. And just realize, yeah, yeah, yeah, Shelby's gonna have to do a cult coy remix of of that one. Um. Look, I always like the Giants on the Road. I'd stay away from this one because of Colt McCoy, But uh yeah, you can't. You can't really bank on it here and Mitch does raise a good point, especially now the Seahawks are back to the not less let Russ Cook, but the sort of more run heavy than play action approach that they've taken the last couple of years. They don't pull away from teams for the most part. Of course, they did last week in Philadelphia and then they lose on the Richard Rodgers and I just want to say something about the Richard Rodgers Hail Mary real quick. Um. I had turned off the game because it was it was over, and then I saw the next day, like, oh, Richard Rodgers called a Hail Mary, just just just like Green Bay at the Detroit and then I watched the highlight and it's like he's Richard Rodgers. Who look he was. He was a very athletic tight end in his prime. He does not move very well anymore. He kind of moves like an off ne to lineman and on the Mary, he's like lying on the ground and the ball just sort of gets batted into his stomach and he just sort of grabbed. It's like, yeah, okay, the best offensive player in the last three weeks, but there was I hate, I hate to make this a segment where I bash Richard Rogers. But there was an interception a couple weeks ago where he was trying to chase someone down and I was like, oh, that offensive lineman is moving kind of well. And I was like, oh, eight five that was That was Richard Rogers. So I just said Richard Rodgers as many times I just said Richard Rodgers as many times as MITS just said Colte McCoy in this assessment of Seahawks Giants, Onto you, Jimmy, since you brought up what kills me the most about that fake call Mary that Richard Rodgers called is the call by Steve Levy where he his call is like when's drops back, heaves it up? Why not? Why not? Because I have the steeler in the Seahawks minus two and a half, That's why not? Why not? There's millions at steak Why not? Anyway, I like the Giants. I'm listen again, The Seahawks have not played well at all for weeks. Russell Wilson has not played on nearly as high a level as people make it out to be. Um. They actually went through the numbers during that Monday night game. He has not played well UM in recent weeks. Again, ten points These big spreads, these underdogs, these crazy backdoor covers. They seem to be happening all the time. Yes, you'd like Daniel Jones here, not Colt mccley, but then the line probably would be ten. I think the Giants, though, Listen, they're battling for a division. They're in it there, They're motivated, and they have gotten better as the season goes on. So I like getting ten points there in Seattle. Next game, the Rams giving two and a half in Arizona total forty eight and a half. Gary, Yeah, I I like the owner in this one. Uh. And look this this was This line has swung around a couple of times, but uh, I'm not crazy about the Rams going forward here. Although I think this Cardinals defense is much more solvable than some of the other ones they saw, but Cardinal's defense has overachief. Cardinal's defenses is keeping them in games at this point as the The offense just plays a very uneven brand of football here. But I do like the under this one. I think there's sort of sort of a book out on how to play Kyler and this air raid offensive. This plan that is, don't let him scramble for forty yards three times a game and you can, you can defeat the Cardinals, or you can at least keep Tyler in check along the way. So, uh, I think that's out there. I think the Rams do hold them back. And uh, you know, Jimmy, you and I talked about all the times. Uh, this Rams offense is just not one that's gonna put out a bunch of explosive plays. When they score points. They do it with sustained drives and uh, it just leads to not a whole lot of points. So they are uh, they are actually seven and oh seven unders out of all seven of their games as a as a favorite this season. So I do like the Rams. And what happened last week when they had a good defense, Mitch, that's a good wait seven and oh hitting the under when they are the favorite? Was that the statue hid Gary, that's the stat I freezed it. I freeze it very poorly, But you like that stat That's a good number. Um, you know we're in the week thirteen seven is just an enormous sample size. That's like, I'll just take that to the bank forever. And now that's like an iron clad But the thing is, you're gonna be talking about that next season, because I know you you've got that flagged and next year it's gonna be like Week five and you're gonna say, you know, I just want to remind you about this thing I have last year. Um. Yeah. The NFC West is just it's like impossible. Um, these teams, they're all capable of beating each other, and it feels like every week somebody one of them lays an egg in a game you think they're gonna win, and one of them has a great game that you don't necessarily see coming. I do like the Rams as the bounce back team. UM, looking just straight wins and losses. Forget about the spread. They have lost four games, uh and come back and won the next week every time. Um I guess the previous four. Um if they lost their fifth this week? So um, you know they're they're traveling, but not traveling very far. And Gary, I think you're right about Kyler. You know, he's been running a lot less the last two weeks and maybe that's a game plan against him. Maybe it's his health. I know people had concerns about his shoulder, but um, you know, he just hasn't seemed quite right. And you wonder when he's gonna be back to a hundred percent. I don't know. The Cardinals. It's like some weeks I'm very high on them, and I think like, oh my god, they're this great team, and then other weeks you look at them and it's like they've lost some games. They remember they had that Hail Mary against Buffalo, otherwise they could be potentially under five hundred. I know that sometimes things play out differently butterfly effects and such, but um, I like the rams here Um again, it's like the lines under a field goal, and I think they're gonna win the game, and so I feel comfortable betting them to cover it. The interesting stuff around them was just you know, McVeigh sort of publicly airing some grievances with golf and so you know, I don't know, um that's gonna like light of fire under him is such a like cliche thing. But you wonder if, like now that he has some time, you know, to either talk to like fix some of those issues or just game plan around them, Like I do trust Sean McVeigh just to figure out like an honest assessment of here's what we have right now with just personnel available and what our quarterback is capable of doing. And so you know, I like them to kind of figure some things out, um at this point in the season. And so you know, I think the Rams are gonna win the game, and so you know, you gotta feel confident in them being favored by covering two and a half. I don't have the field for this game. I don't feel for these teams lately. And to stay away game, uh for me, it could you go anither way? Next game, the Eagles go into Green Bay Packers eight and a half point favorites, total forty seven. Mitch, Oh boy, my Eagles. Um. Maybe you know I'm approaching the point in the season where maybe I just pick against the Eagles and best bet at every week. Um, that is tempting. I don't know how how you can pick them. Um. It's just it's very depressing to, uh to watch them. I mean it's like you watch the game and forget about the score everybody. All you're thinking about is when is Carson Wentz gonna get benched? Uh? And then you know, will Jalen Hurts be any better? Um? And then I don't know, and the coaches, uh seems like they either don't know, or they do know and they don't want to find out. It's just such a bizarre situation. Um, it's very fun being you know, I'm among many Eagles fans, not physically but digitally, you know, I speak to Eagles fans on a regular basis every day, and it's like these there have been a few games where everyone knows they're gonna lose and people just melt down and lose their minds. Anyway, Like the Eagles are gonna lose to the Packers and then they're gonna lose to the Saints next week, and everyone's gonna panic, and it's like, well did you think they were gonna when these games? So I don't know. Um, they got a backdoor cover last week, you'd think that they would need a backdoor cover against the Packers this week. Um, I think the Packers right now are playing like the best team in the NFC. I just I may change my mind when Drew Brees get back on the field. I want to see him come back from these double digit fractured ribs here. But um, you know, Eileen Packers, I'm not gonna best bet at this time. But I don't I just I don't know how you can pick the Eagles with any kind of confidence. Sorry, I'm same way from the Eagles, just because I still in my gut feel like it's going to work for them at some point in because I I it just doesn't make sense after a while. But of course I'm not gonna I'm not gonna put any money on it. Uh I will. I'll just say. And and Carson Wentz has been bad. It is incredible how many times they just don't run a play correctly. And and my favorite one I'm going to write about it this this uh this weekend in my column is uh, they ran a screen pass. They checked to a screen in the red zone on third down early in the third quarter Monday night. It was gonna go for a touchdown. I think the broadcast hadn't wrong that thought Boston Scott was it was Jalen Reagor associate a tunnel screen and if they ran it, if Jalen Reagor stood there and caught the pass and ran straight forward, he was going to go untouched into the end zone. Instead he just ran up field. And it's everyone else played the screen. And you see that from some teams like once every month or sudden like that, but they do it like multiple times to games. So also this sentiment of like, I gotta put Jalen Hurts you, my god, don't put Jalen Hurts in there. You're kind of ruin him. You already ruined Wentz. Why are you gonna ruin the other quarterback you took? Can I say it hurts far away from this? Can I say about Jalen Hurts? This has bothered me as an Eagles fan watching this all season. Every week they bring in Jalen Hurts and there's a pre snap penalty and it's already like enough going on with your shuttling guys in and out, and I'm not even out because you're lining up Carson Wentz wide as a wide receiver for the Hurts plays. But it seems like every single week they bring him in and there's a false start or there's an illegal formation, or they'll they've fumbled a couple of handoffs, you know, or snaps even and it's just like that is part of the reason it's not working is because they think, oh, let's get cute and bring in Jalen Hurts for a play, and then it's second and fifteen when you bring Carson Wentz back in and you know this week he came in for third down and got sacked after Jalen Hurts did nothing and there was a false start. But it just feels like every time they bring him in, somebody's lining up in the wrong spot or false start or something. And that's been one of the reasons why the Jalen Hurts in for a play at a time experiment is not working. I love the over in this game. Um, simple math. The Eagles the Packers are going to score thirty one, thirty four, thirty seven points in this game. You don't need the Eagles to do much. Yet the Eagles have managed to score seventeen points the past couple of weeks. They give you seventeen points again against the Packers defense. That is not any good. I mean, the Packers give up twenty five points to the Bears, they give up a million points to the Cults. Uh, they give up twenty points to the Jaguars of all teams. So I have to believe the Eagles here can get to seventeen or twenty. The Eagles get to seventeen or twenty, you're over forty seven should be fair easy. To get too, So I love the over in that game. Nice game. Patriots go into l A to face the Chargers. The Chargers are one point favorites, which I mean Bill Belichick vers Anthony Lynn and the Charges at one point favorite. The tal is forty seven and a half. Gary, No, give that to me. Yes, I I really like the Chargers here. Uh. I mean, look, this is why I've been waiting to get back on them. And I don't think the line has really uh reflected They're sort of uh you know, they're they're there. I've said this couple of times. They are getting unlucky, but they're not getting quite as unlucky as people think. But I think this line reflects a little bit better. And the other thing is I looked at this Patriots offense is it's it's not workable. Uh They're they're passing game is non existent. And to go out there and just say, uh, you know, all right, we're gonna get three turnovers and and win this game, you know, seven four team rubber might be. I don't think it's a formula you can you can use against Justin Herbert in a good weather game in their own stadium. So I like the Charges. I think the Charges are gonna win this one out well, obviously, I think you're gonna win out right, because they're one point favorites, and I'm probably gonna best bet then. But I like the Chargers here. I think they're better than the Patriots. I think the only reason these teams are even close in d v O A is because the Charges have also been so bad in special teams. But, uh, this is it. Anthony Lynn gets the best of Bill Belichick. That's worse than me saying I like the Jets, Bill is gonna make you. It's a very bizarre week. I like, Anthony can't have a bigger coaching mismatch in the NFL than you do in this game. Mitch, I love Gary not just saying that the Chargers will win, but specifically putting it on the Anthony Lynn versus Bill Belichick matchup. That is the baldest part of the PA. I don't know I picked the Patriots. I've wanted to bury them so many times. Um the Charger. I mean, you talk about the Chargers being unlucky. They've been unlucky for so many years a row that at some point you wonder, you know, is it really luck or you know, is this who they are on special teams and situational football and some of these miscus that cost them games at the end. I don't know. I'm leaning the Patriots. I don't think I feel as strongly about this game as either of you. Definitely not Gary Um, stay away from me. But if I had to pick a side I'll take I'll take New England. It's a stay away from me because I don't bet the Chargers, but I definitely lean Patriots. I mean, that is as big a coaching mismatch in game that you will ever see. And I just think Bill will find a way and Anthony if if, if, if that game is close with five minutes left, Anthony Lynn will screw it up in such epic proportions against Belichick It'll be high comedies. I'm looking forward to that. At least. I just want to say this in a whisper tone. The biggest mismatch that you will see a coaching you saw last week with the Patriots. Who did they beat Arizona? Cliff Clay, Oh look at you, Klingsburg get hit with some shrapping all out of nowhere. All right, nobody's safe. I mean they did screw that up at the end of the first half badly with the we we're just ripping everyone on. The show is a very negative show, and I'll try to get I'll go positive with the next game. It's the Washington football team going into Pittsburgh Steelers minus eight and a half. Ah, this is a Monday five pm game. Mitch, Oh, I was Jimmy, I was gonna let you go first. He said, I'll go first. I like. I like Washington. I think again, playing much better. I think Ron Rivera's working his magic finally with that team. Alex Smith is stabilized their offense. I think eight and a half is a lot of points for the most overrated undefeated team you'll ever see in the NFL. Uh. The Steelers are gonna get picked off one of these weeks because they they've got a lot of issues. Um, eight and a half is too high. I like Washington, all right, I'll follow that. I also like Washington. I don't think. I don't think I like him as much as you do. But part of it is, I mean, the Steelers are just coming off the weirdest possible week, imaginable. Um, so I guess maybe the Ravens had a weird had a weirder week. Um, but they played each other. I mean you've got to think that that affects both teams, just the waiting around and not knowing when they're gonna play and not having as much practice time and now having a short week coming off a Wednesday game. Um. They also lost Bud Dupree, which is a big loss for them, thank you. Yes, yeah, Um. And you know, like they lost Devin Bush earlier in the season and a lot of people said like, oh whatever, there's still gonna be a great defense, and they have been. But I always feel like when you lose multiple players, like there's always a compounding difference where it's like, you know, you lose the second guy and it's worse than when you lost the first guy, and you just start to thin out, especially you know, just seeing how good that defense has been. Now obviously they have uh playmakers remaining and a good team, but I do just think it hurts you and it adds up over the season. Um, you know, Washington. And also I'll say that game was by the way more competitive than I thought it was gonna be. Um, you know, even down to the last minute. The Hollywood Brown touchdown there um made the final score look even closer. But just watching the game, like, you know, the Ravens hung around, Um, you know, an awful pick six from RG three aside, Um, you know, I guess the muff punts sort of goes back and forth. It anyway, they didn't blow out the Ravens despite how many people Baltimore was missing. Um, Washington, they're coming off a couple of wins. But it's like the Bengals and Cowboys. I don't know how much you really like, you know, learn about them and their ability to play against good teams. But I'm with you. The line just feels very high and and pittsburghs another one of those teams. They win with defense and they have uh some good offensive players. I love that stable wide receivers. But they're not a team that you think of as like a threat to just like score forward and blow you out. Um. So you know, I think they'll win and and could be comfortably. But but I think you take a chance on Washington there to come for eight and a half point underdog. My. I actually I like the Seelers a little bit, but I back off this one. I just want to say, this Washington team is is fascinating. I mean they they almost have like no interest in moving the ball and scoring. Uh that they just they I mean I think I think the numbers on next Gien stats is some on Alex Smith, it's something like he throw you know, usually the most conservative quarterbacks in the league. That they have that stat uh yards to the sticks basically how short of the first tound sticks do you throw on average? And usually the guy at the bottom of the league will be like high two points something or lower three points. On Alex Smith is something like four point five or something that, which is just uh, they have no interest in scoring and and that in a way makes them like the perfect team to win the NFC East. Like the one team that like doesn't run the race at all and stand still and just watches everyone and just just die along the way is the one who ends up surviving. So there's something you said for that, So I'll back off this one. I do like this. The Seelers actually tackle people, So I think that that I'm like Lessler's a Night in Dallas. I think that's what sort of tips it in their favor that wraps up all the games. We like for Week thirteen, we have let's see here one, two, three, four games. There's four games here will do in the Lightning round, which we'll try to do very quickly. One of those games, though, is Dallas at Baltimore. There is we do have a line now, so we can pop that up there, Jimmy, I think we have four in the Lightning round and then Dallas Baltimore makes five. I think, um, I have Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, and Buffalo, San Francisco and Denver, Kansas City. Okay, there is yep. Okay. Uh, let's well, let's do Ravens Dallas now quickly, just because they just put the line up. There's no total. It's uh, Ravens minus seven and a half. This is Tuesday night at eight o'clock. For Tuesday night, eight o'clock, Plowboys at Ravens, no total seven and a half point favorites for Baltimore. Uh, let's go to Gary on this one. I like I like the chaos of the lightning strike because it feels like this game could start any second, like you just wake up and uh and the Cowboys and the Ravens are playing. Um I I look I like the Raves in this one. I think Dallas doesn't tackle people, and I think that is a problem when you're going against a uh in offense like the Ravens offense. Assuming the Ravens have, you know, their their regular people back and and can do that thing. So I do like Baltimore in this one. I'm Mitch, but I'll go I'm gonna take the easy way out. Total say, we have no idea who's playing for Baltimore. Um, even the quarterback. We don't know if Lamar Jackson's gonna be back. And then r G three got hurt. So if if you don't have that, it's trace fixed sorely. So, like you know, I'm gonna wait and see uh and not just the quarterback, but seemingly every other position on the field. I want to know who's playing before I pick a side on that game. Yeah, that's to stay away after with the Ravens, I gotta see how the week aggressive you until Tuesday on that one. So for now, I don't know how you handicap you gotta wait. I think losses on Tuesday to handicap it. Dolphins eleven and a half point favorites with the incoming Bengals obviously no Joe Burrow total forty two. Mitch, Yeah, this is another one of those, uh, another one of those big lines that I was talking about where I just like hate a lot of these games. Um. I guess I lean the Bengals. They were better than I thought they would be last week with Brandon Allen uh in for Joe Burrow, but they were also playing against the Giants. I don't know how much that says. Um. I still want to hear about twas health. We don't know if it's gonna be to uh or Ryan Fitzpatrick again, Um, I don't know. I mean the you'd think that the Dolphins defense is good enough to hold the Bengals, uh, and they ought to be able to cover. But it is a big number eleven and a half. So I lean Bengals, but I'm staying away Gary. I I like the Dolphins. I like the under as well. I do think this is a game where look at Dolphins don't stop the run well, and that's what makes me kind of nervous about this. Do the Bengals just end up running it a thousand times and and sort of hanging around that way? But look, Bengals gotta they gotta kick off return touchdown, They got a couple of big special they gotta they gotta fake punt. They got a long punt return in that game. That's how they hung around with the Giants. I don't think that you can't count it in most weeks, but I think the Dolphins kind of have their stuff together in terms of special teams. So I I do like the Dolphins to cover the big number even in a crappy, low scoring game. The line is way too high from me, but there's no way I can take the points with the With the Bengals, um, you'd expect the Dolphins. He had a roll uh at home in Miami. Next game, Bears giving three list four and a half. I'll go first. I have not one bird to say about this game. Now. I you know, we always talk about the interim coach thing and what's the deal and uh, the narratives that you know, all the players hated Patricia and all that stuff. I don't know if that's necessarily the case, because the guys who didn't like Patricia in that first season all got moved out. I mean, that was the problem with that teams. They traded all these talent to guys for oppennies on the dollar to get their guys in there. I think they generally like Patricia in that locker room, so I don't think they get the usual bump here. Uh. You know, obviously both teams are The Bears just don't play good enough offense to to count on them, and the lines don't play good enough defense count on them. So that's why you back off. But uh yeah, that's uh, that's why I got for you, Mitch. I was gonna say the exact opposite. I was under the assumption there will be guys around who do not like Matt Patricia. Granted I don't have any sources in Detroit's locker room and don't talk to any of these people, but um, he just he struck me as a very unpopular guy around those parts. Um, so you know, maybe there will be a little bump there. But also, I mean, just looking at the Bears, I mean they have just fallen off a cliff. Um. Not that the Lions are very good, but I guess you could say they're uh playing better than the Bears. I don't know. That Carolina game against p J. Walker was pretty ugly. Um, but I guess I've tempted to lean lions, but I think this game is in the lightning round for a reason. None of us have too strong a feel on another one. In the lightning round Chiefs minus thirteen and a half against the Broncos total fifty and a half. I'm just I feel like the Chiefs sometimes going to trying these games. They're just too good and then they get complacent and then they don't cover these huge numbers. So I'm not picking the Broncos. Uh. So that's that's the Sunday Night NBC game. Uh from the Homes and Company, Mitch, Yeah, I love the Chiefs, and I pick them, uh seemingly almost every week. But I told you guys a couple of weeks ago, I was off the Broncos and refusing to pick them. So I will respectfully stick to my own rule and stay away here. Carry No. I like the Chiefs because they always dominate this division. Uh that's it, like Vegas hung around with him. Well, you know, we'll see you. Familiar opponents always always gets a little more interesting than you think. Sometimes the Broncos in the road. I've never crazed about in Chiefs against NFC excuse me. A f C. West I always like and the last game in the Lightning Round, I gave you the opening. Shelby didn't take it. Bad chemistry when we do it. The Bills one point favorites in San fran Good game. By the way, this is uh Monday at eight San Francisco is gonna be in Arizona. Remember they're gonna play forty Niners. Can't play at home total, Yeah, neutral stadium here, and they send Buffalo back to the scene of the Hail Mary. That just seems mean at this point. But I mean, look, I'm staying away from this one. The forty Niners and we talked about it last week. Uh, Kyle sh Hannah and just figures it out and getting Deebo Samuel back, I guess was a pretty big deal for them because now they have a guy who can just give the ball too early in the down and watch them just sort of steamroll a bunch of guys on every down here. I think the Bill sort of figured things out a little bit defensively over the bye week. Uh So I do like Buffalo here, but I'd stay away from this one. I do not like picking against Kyle Shanahan so that wraps up the handicapping for the games. Will now go to our bets segment. All right, that'll kick things off. Mitch, best bets wee, Oh, you're gonna make me go first. I have three definites and the one that I'm thinking about, so I'll give you the three first. I'm gonna do the Saints minus two and a half in Atlanta, the Rams minus two and a half in Arizona, and that Brown's Titans under fifty three and a half. And then I'm on the fence about that Seahawks minus ten against the Giants. How many best bets do you guys have? If you have a lot, I'll go up to four five. Okay, alright, I'll do it. I hate this and I'm gonna regret it, but give me Seattle minus ten against the Giants. Then you should be a leader, not a follower, Mitch Gary, I got I got three unders here, Colts Textans under fifty one, Rams Cardinals under forty and a half, and Saints Falcons under forty five and a half. I'm gonna double up in that Saints Falcons game Saints minus two and a half on the side, and uh, give me a team that your Argers given the Chargers beating up on the Patriots. Here, Chargers given one at home against New England. I wish I could hit a button and fast forward to the to the end of that game on Sunday and just see how it collapses. I look forward. Yeah, we got a text Gary with like five minutes left in the games. Just see how he's feeling. I've never seen a team give up twenty four points in forty seconds. I got four of five underdogs one total. Give me points, feed me, give me all the points. Jets plus eight, Jaguars plus ten, Giants plus ten, Washington plus eight and a half small underdog Falcons plus two and a half the total over forty seven Eagles and Packers. Jimmy, I want to get you one of those jerseys that's like made up of pieces of other jerseys and have you with like that Jets, Giants, Jaguars combined things on Sunday. Give me the points and uh, we'll see. We'll see how badly this goes. But listen, like I said, the backdoor covers have been in anity. So let me see if I can get a little taste of that on Sunday. That wraps up this episode of the m m q B Gambling Podcast week their team, so for Mitch Gary, I'm Jimmy, thanks for listening, and good luck with the waters.

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