Handicapping NFL Week 1: Primetime Best Bets | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Sep 11, 2020, 8:00 AM

Mitch and Gary run down the Sunday and Monday slates for Week 1 and pick their best bets, including lots of intriguing primetime action, a money-line darling and lots to like about home underdogs.

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Hello, and welcome to the mm QB Gambling Show. I am your host, Scary Grambling. He is your co host, Mitch Goldich. I know you're all missing Jimmy Trainer right now. Jimmy's gonna be here all season long, but just not week one. He's taken week one off. That's that's just the way it goes sometimes. Before we start, I just want to mention we are planning to be here every Friday on this feed during the season. We're gonna have some changes on the MMQB feed here, but we will be on this feed every Friday during the season. At least it's a plan, if it's alright with you, Mitch plans change. Last year, we didn't start this podcast until week six. I think maybe it was earlier in the season. And if everyone, yeah, everyone knows the NFL season doesn't really start until you get to week six. Yeah, we're missing Jimmy. I got is he Uh? He's not? I are designated to return because that he'd be out three weeks? Is he on the pup list? How how should we designate him for a week? Is out? He's just he's just week to week, just week to week, alright, Well, be back. We put him on the injury reports in case he was actually questionable, and uh, we just put him on there to keep our opponents off guard, but in case they were scouting Jimmy, he's gonna be It'll be good to have his voice back. I'm just imagining if you had told Jimmy that there was gonna be a quarantine and everyone had to stay in their house for six months. I think he would have been fine with it if he knew there would be football games to bet on. I think, uh, surviving without them has probably been rough, but I think he's gonna be excited to be back with some action here on Absolutely absolutely, but we are. We are forging ahead with a two man booth in this one, and we're going to run through all of the Sunday and Monday action for week one. But before we do, Mitch, just a couple of themes, just general themes. Obviously, it's it's a very unique time in uh, in the world and the NFL as well. UH. Two things sort of affecting gambling here. Uh first, his home field advantage and everyone sort of trying to figure out, how how do you factor in? At this point, most teams will not have fans early in the season. Uh, it looks like the the Dolphins and Cowboys are probably two teams that will have more than most at this point. But uh, how do you factor this in or do you factor in it at all? Is this is being blown out of proportion? Yeah, it's very weird. I don't know if you remember from last year. I love road teams already, and I mean when we pick sixteen games, I'll pick twelve road teams and I just fall in love with them. Every year. I'm aware of this habit and I just refused to stop. So home field advantage, I guess you could say it's not something that has worried me before, or maybe you know, it's all obviously baked into the lines and and maybe that's part of why I find uh those road teams juicy sometimes. But yeah, I mean it's hard because you wonder are the sharps ahead of the lines or vice versa. So, um, you know, even if home field advantage disappears and people see that, then it'll be cooked into the lines. So it's it's impossible to know if the I mean, we're gonna see whether or not home field advantage changes as with regards to teams actually winning, but it's hard to know if there's actually going to be an edge there for gampling. I mean there's always an edge somewhere, but yeah, it's for me. I mean, looking at week one, I just ignored it and I treated these games how I normally would. I mean, I'm still looking at things like altitude in Denver and stuff like that, but as far as thinking about your stereotypical great loud fan bases like New Orleans and Seattle and wherever else, you know, I I kind of just ignored it and went with how I would normally pick these games. Anyway I was, I was also a coward. I'm mostly ignored it for week one. I want to see how plays out in September. Here I my theory, my hypothesis. Obviously, no crowd noise. That that is an advantage for visiting offense where you're not gonna be drowned out you can communicate more effectively. But not according to Roger Goodell, Yeah and say there's no such Oh, there's no competitive advantage at all for having fans in the stadium. Don't worry about it, your robo Roger just not phased by the crowd noise in the stadium. Uh. I do wonder though, if you're a visiting team, travel is such a boy, it's such a hassle. I. I always think there's something underrated about just the fact that you know your your home, you're in a familiar territory, you're in a familiar bed, scenario, situation, routine, and all that. If you're the home team when you're on the road, you don't have that. And now you just have all these weird layers to traveling. And uh, I wonder if there's just a little bit more of a burden, uh, a little bit more disruption on these teams that have to travel now. And I wonder if we'll see that play out in UH in September here, But of course we can. Can. I just say, on the flip side, when you are traveling to a road game, you can't do anything. So maybe if if some of the and I'm sure they're all you know, focus that night before the game, you'd like to thank But you never really know. But you might think if someone is traveling and they're on the road, they are probably hopefully in this environment, they're staying in their hotel room and sleeping getting ready for the Auble game. They're not going out, they're not getting into trouble. And and so maybe given the extra rules and protocols and precautions, maybe some people will actually be better rested on the road or whatever, or just will be in in the right mind frame for the game. So who knows, I mean all this, it's impossible. We we no one has any idea how this will affect the season of an issue. And that's all right, I'll buy that. Uh. And no preseason so we haven't seen the travel play out at all at this point, but no preseason. I mean sloppy tackling. I would think it's going to be an issue in week one. Uh. I don't know if it goes beyond that, but I'm certainly curious to see. Yeah, sloppy tackling is interesting. I look at conditioning, that was the number one thing I thought about, um and just seeing guys, seeing who's in shape who's not. And then the other big thing and we don't know this yet for week one, but a rash of injuries and that's the downside. And I know we saw in the lockout yearn there was like a rash of guys blowing out their achilles tendons, and just you know, I'm definitely worried about some you know, pulled hamstrings or more serious injuries or whatever from guys who maybe aren't in the shape they would have been because they couldn't do their normal workout stuff over the summer and then they didn't get their twenty snaps or whatever three series or whatever it is in the preseason. So um so, you know, I would say conditioning and injuries, those are the two big things for me. And I'll actually I'll add a third thing just on your ways. This season is different and this doesn't necessarily uh impact Week one, but definitely could later in the season, is we could see a lot of games just off the board, if you get if we start seeing positive tests on teams, if if there's a quarterback and we're worried that, you know, are they going to play, are they not going to play, or if they're you know, if they're on the COVID list, who knows, like there might be a lot of games where they just don't put up lines because who knows what's going on, who knows who's going to be on the field. If a team has an outbreak if the game is going to happen. So you know, we are hoping they get through sixteen games every week, you know, by weeks whatever. But um, you know, there are so many unknowns, and uh, it's gonna be interesting. If MLB was any indication, we're in for a bit of a wild ride, maybe a bit of a disappointing ride at times. But we do have football, and we have fifteen games with lines. Our lines are coming to us from draft kings here if you're if you're wondering, and we tape on Thursday night. So um, that's uh, that's where we're at. But we're going to mix up the times we used to do, you know, one o'clock at them, four o'clock then primetime, etcetera. We're gonna mix it up a little bit this year. We're gonna do some of the games we're a little bit more interested in, and then uh maybe maybe rapid fire some of the ones at the end. But let's let's start with the one o'clock slate here, and we're going, uh, Mitch Goldich's Philadelphia Eagles traveling to Washington to play a football team. Now, I I really like the line on this, Uh, Washington is getting five and a half. The total is forty three. That total really stood out to me because, as we mentioned before, you know, stoppie tackling, you might see that early on, so you get a few more points in these games. But two things more than that, we all kind of assumed a month ago that, Okay, Washington is just gonna go ahead and give to Adrian Peterson forty times every week and try and win games fourteen to thirteen. Peterson is gone. It's gonna be more Antonio Gibson. It seems like maybe they're gonna be a little bit bold with this offense, with which they probably should since it's sort of a trial year for Dwayne Haskins here. Uh so they might try and open things up a little bit. And uh, the only thing I wanted to mention on this game these teams obviously they played twice a year. There two games last year fifty nine points and sixty four points combined, So that number sitting at forty three, which is low anyway, UM, I like that. I like that in this one. Yeah, So you said we were gonna start with the games were most interested in, and then you started with the game I'm most interested in. So thanks for that, Gary. People remember my my biases and they will come back out. But I will pick against the Eagles when they need to be picked against. And I have a I have a track record there. I'm I'm with you. I agree. I like the over forty three there. Um. I also, I guess, not surprisingly, I do like Philly, uh favored by five and a half. Look, they're just better. I mean, this is one of those things where we've spent the whole offseason doing power rankings and playoff predictions and who's gonna have a good season and who's a regression candidate, and so you know, we're sitting here with a blank slate and and we just have the teams that we like in the teams that we don't like, And so of course we've got lines that we're gonna analyze the lines. But in a lot of cases, it's it's a team you like against a team you don't like. And I just think Philly is much better here. Um, So you know, a line under a touchdown, I'm happy to take it. Um. You know, DeShawn Jackson is such a big question mark, and when you're talking about how good will the Eagles be this season. You're gonna talk about Jalen Reagor being injured, j j Arthega Whiteside being a disappointment last year. They have a couple of rookies. Alshon Jeffrey, we don't know what we're gonna get from him. Deshan Jackson, you can't expect sixteen games from him, but he is healthy in playing in Week one, so you can expect a game from him here. He played one full game last year, which was against Washington, and he torched them for a hundred and fifty four yards and two scores. Both scores were for for over fifty yards. So again, if we're talking about the Eagles Super Bowl chances, I don't want to rely too heavily on DeShawn Jackson because you don't know that you're gonna get him all year, but for a Week one, and I'm told he's gonna be there, and that definitely helps. And so yeah, I'm with you. I like the over and I also like the Eagles players who can run fast. That's something you'll see in the Eagles receiving corps that you didn't see for most of the last year. And and Ragor is is back at practice, so they might have him in some capacity on Sunday after we thought that shoulder injury was so serious. I have a slight Eagles looking there, but I I don't know. Washington's got a wild card factor to me, uh not wild card playoff birth, but you know, uh Charlie Day and always sunny type of wild card dear going on there, so his fans are familiar with reference. They make me nervous enough that I'd probably stay away, but I'd lean Eagles. I was gonna bet it, Uh, let's go, Let's go Browns at raven here, Ravens giving seven and a half total of forty eight what he got, Mitch, So I know that I uh, you know, I thought we were gonna talk about this game first, and I know I just took the Eagles at minus five and a half. But in general I went with a lot of underdogs for Week one, especially on some of these games with the big spreads of six and a half, seven, seven and a half higher. I just think it's you know, it's possible we're gonna see some wacky stuff and nobody ever knows exactly where they're gonna come from. But it just wouldn't surprise me to see a day full of upsets. Um. You know, we were talking when the NBA playoffs started about like, oh, these are gonna be the craziest games ever because they had obviously they interrupted their season, and then they went down to the bubble and then you see things like Phoenix went undefeated and you know, I know, Devin buck Bookers. Good. Now I'm talking about a totally different sport. But what I'm saying is, again, the beginning of this NFL season also could just be nuts. So I'm inclined to take the underdog when a spread is more than a touchdown here, and that's one of the reasons that I'm happy to take Cleveland Baltimore obviously was incredible last season. They are a regret. They are a regression candidate this season just because they have to be. I mean, the their point differential year over year has to go down because it has nowhere to go but down. No offense to them. Cleveland's on the other side, where a lot of people I think are expecting a bounce back. Obviously they were hyped up last year and then didn't come close to those expectations. Remember, Cleveland did have that big upset win over Baltimore last year in September, I think Week four, and then the Ravens went on a long winning streak and didn't lose again until the playoffs. So you know, the Ravens are great. I'm gonna pick them to win the game. The Browns, they do have Myles Garrett back after he was suspended for big chunkle last season. Um, and I just think the spreads too high. When in doubt, I'm gonna uh leave myself some wiggle room for a big upset or a wacky game or some some kind of unknown happening. Yeah, it's this one's for you. In the look. The Browns actually gave Lamar Jackson issues for a game and a half last year and then Lamar just stidy. Kay, I'm just gonna go score a thousand points in the last thirty five minutes of that of that second matchup, they had, uh, definitely definite regression coming for the Ravens to an extent. You wonder how they're gonna replace Marshall Janda. I don't want to overplay one interior lineman, but you know, hall Hall of Fame caliber guy goes away, you gotta replace them with a young guy. It's an execution based offense. We'll see how that plays out. But uh, this one was tough for me. I end up landing on the Ravens just because I can see them rolling up a ton of points, especially with the Browns so much. Just major issues in the linebacking corps. They're uh swapping in some new safeties and I I think it's it's gonna be a little too much to handle Lamar for what's a pretty redone unit at this point. But uh, let's uh, let's take this to Atlanta Seahawks at Falcons. Falcons getting to total is forty nine. I'll I'll kick this one off. I mean, I'm the last one who's sort of on the uh Seahawk are frauds bandwagon here, And they're not frauds. They're all nice guys and Russell Wilson's incredibly talented, but uh, I'm not buying this team, even after adding Jamal Adams. I thought it was you know, yes, went to the postseason last year. Their takeaway rate could not possibly be duplicated. Again, they don't have a pass rush. Jamal Adams makes them better defensively, but uh, if you don't have a pass rush, you shouldn't be taking the ball away. That's typically how it goes. You know, it ends up being a little bit of luck. They got so many fumbling recoveries last year, sixteen of them. Those dried up late in the season, and then they they ended up going too and four down the stretch. Falcons, on the other hand, they fixed things defensively. They went from a team that was giving up more than thirty a game in the first half of the season to a team that was giving up eighteen a game in the second half of the season. They're in their own building. Uh. To me, these teams are fairly evenly matched. Uh, Atlanta at home, Like, I'll take this. I don't think they should be getting points in this scenario here. Uh. And again, I look, I think the Falcons are are a ten or eleven win team. I think the Seahawks are an eight or nine win team. Even with Russell. I I just don't think they have a very good team around him at this point. And I just don't think the breaks that came their way a year ago are going to come their way again. Yeah, these are two teams that I like a lot so that always can make it tough. I am very surprised that you took Atlanta and you didn't even mention that this is a patented Gary Grambling body clock game with the Seahawks kicking off at ten o'clock local time, which isn't that's your thing? Right? I thought you liked uh it is. I I don't get too into it week one though, because this you know, the Seahawks want to they can, they can head out there, they might be there right now. And I was actually I was going to bring that up, you know, given the pandemic. I mean, who among us has a good circadian rhythm right now? Right? Everyone's body clock has been thrown off for six months, even football players who love routine. You never know. You never know what you're gonna get from any of them. And that's actually, uh, that's why I'm taking Seattle. No, that's not really the reason why. But I am taking Seattle again. Like I said, two teams that I like. I disagree with a lot of what you said about um reasons not to like them. I just you know, it seems like every year people say Seattle was good last year, but they can't do that again, can they? And they just they seem to do it every year. I actually have them in the Super Bowl this year losing to Kansas City. So I like Atlanta. I will be picking Atlanta plenty of this season, but in a close game with two good teams, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with my super Bowl team here. And uh this, let's be honest. A lot of these we say are stay away games for as we wouldn't actually bet on all sixteen of them. We do. You and I and Jimmy pick all the games against the spread at the MMQB and you can view all those games, so we have to be on record with somebody. Um, but for me, this is a stay away. But I would lean Seattle if you make me pick one. Yeah, I'll just say one more thing about Seattle. And I love Russell Wilson, but I feel like this is the first time in a couple of years at going into the season and one wasn't saying like there's there's a year Seattle falls off. This year, the Seahawks are done. They lost too many guys. Everyone's sort of back on the bandwagon. Everyone's putting confidence in them again. They're not the underdogs. Anymore. Everyone expects you to win. Russell Wilson, so what's surprised? I was excited to pick them as my Super Bowl team, and then I saw how popular they were in the MMQB picks, and that was that was a little disappointing. Yeah, yeah, Well, Russell Wilson was an SI cover boy, so you gotta, uh, you gotta, you gotta bake that into your assessment as well. We're praising him a lot. He's not listening to this. You don't have to. He might, he might. We could uh maybe pick up a subscriber here. If he hears we're praising him enough, you can say, how do you feel? Garret's okay? That's uh. Let's bounce to four o'clock real quick here, Uh, Cardinals at forty nine ers the defending NFC champion Niners giving six and a half year the total is forty eight, the upstart Cardinals. This is a tough one for me to read. But what do you think, nich This is my upset special of the week. Listen, you pick all the games straight up. You can't pick the favorites in every game. Sometimes you gotta have an upset. I am I picked the Cardinals to win this game. Straight up, I am down on the forty Niners this year. That's a little bit mean. The forty Niners fans, by the way, of all the fan bases who are upset with the mm QB, the forty Niners are are very high on the list. They did not like how many of us, myself included left them out of the playoffs. But you know, we've seen plenty of teams lose the Super Bowl and then not not get back to that level the next year. The just looking at the NFC in recent years as the Rams, the Falcons, the Panthers. So anyway, the Niners they lost too far. As Buckner, we know, uh Deebo Samuel is he he might play, He'll at least be limited. I mean he he broke his foot. They made it sound like he was gonna be out six weeks and then they said no, he'll be back sooner than that. But anyway, um, you know, these are these are interesting teams here and uh talking about the lack of conditioning with teams not having a preseason. The Cardinals, they're gonna spread it out and go four wide receivers and try and play fast and Chuck the ball down the field. The forty Niners, they want to tire you out by running the ball times with all their many running backs, and uh, it's just it's gonna be an interesting chess match watching them try and hire each other out. This to me feels like the kind of game where you're gonna look up at the time of possession and it's gonna be like forty minutes to twenty minutes in favor of San Francisco, but it's gonna be a one score game and you're gonna kind of wonder how that happened. Um, So you know, the the Cardinals winning straight up is it's a little bit gutsy and ball z And you know, maybe I wouldn't I wouldn't put too much on the money line there, but I definitely I feel comfortable with Cardinals plus seven and a half. I just think they're a team. They were like they're like post hype now because everyone hyped them up and loved them back in the spring after the draft, talking about Cliff and Kyler in their second year together and how great they're gonna be. And then when pushed game to shove and everyone actually had to make their picks. Uh, they were not as high on them as they said they were, which was interesting. So the the I'm buying the post hype hype of the Cardinals, and I will take them plus seven and a half. I've been saying if the Cardinals were in the NFC North that picked them to win the division. But that West Division is is completely stacked. And by the way, plus two fifty is the money line bet for the Cardinals right now. Uh. I mean, look, I believe in the coach. I would default to Kyle Shanahan figuring things out. They went through a stretch last year where they were missing George Kittle, they were missing a couple of receivers, and uh, they always found a way. Uh this might I I do like the over on the forty eight. I don't know if I'll best bet it will We'll get to that at the end of the show. But uh, you know, I think forty Irons will find a way to move the ball on the Cardinals, and Cardinals will just throw the ball a ton and and sort of just naturally roll up some yards and points that way, and uh, they'll they'll stick around. I think, Uh, gosh, I don't even know what I like for a side on this one? Uh? What what I I? I got? It's one of those kids where I hated picking it so much that I gotta look up what I pick. I actually did pick the Cardinals first side. Uh, but obviously not not a strong lean here. All right, let's go with the Sunday Night football Cowboys at Rams. Rams getting three points total is fifty two. I'll start this one off. And look, I just said, how you know Kyles Hannahan. Uh? I I like betting on him. I would trust him and figure something out. Coaching, so much of it is is problem solving, and I think Sean McVeigh is the best in the game when it comes to that. Uh. He is seven and two against the spread when he has uh at least two plus weeks to prepare for a game, and one of those was losing to Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl. So uh, he does well with the extra preparation. This is an offense that got right late in the season in twenty nineteen, and I think everyone just kind of missed it. They missed the playoffs and everyone just sort of said, oh Man, disappointing year for the Rams. Uh. They average nearly thirty points a game over the last five, the offensive line got right. They sort of figured out up front. Jared Goff was much better down the stretch there one DoD actually was in Dallas. So I I'm not gonna I'm not gonna go nuts that this line is what it is, but I still think it's wrong. I think this game is a uh is a pick him at best, and I would think the Rams should be giving a point or two. The other thing is, uh, people are just acting like the Cowboys didn't lose two very good offensive lineman for this one. Travis Frederick is retired. And then on top of that, you got Lyle Collins is gonna miss this game. It's going to be uh, Cameron Irving filling in for uh Lyle Collins and this one at right tackle. And the last time I remember seeing Cameron Irving in a game was Sunday Night for the Chiefs playing the Colts last October, and he made Justin Houston look like, well like twenty two year old Justin Houston. I mean Justin Houston completely destroyed him in that game. And Justin Houston is is not a dynamic pass rusher anymore at this point in his career. I think that's a huge problem on the offensive line for the Cowboys here, and like I said, pick them, I would have gone Rams. The fact they're getting three points here. This is uh, this is this is an easy one for me. This is a stay away from me. Um. I mean, either of these teams could win eleven twelve games. I think you're right about the Rams at the end of last season that people didn't quite say that coming, and probably myself included, Um, I'm I'm excited to see their offense without Todd Gurley this year. And and Todd Gurley obviously had his detractors, and you know, and we saw it. He just wasn't the same guy after a certain point. But you know, Sean McVeigh gets so much credit and deservedly so for being a genius, and you just wonder if he's going to have some more freedom. Like I think he was good about establishing, Okay, this is my team. And I turned Jared Goffino a much better player in his second season when I took over for Jeff Fisher, And it felt like there were still some politics where he was trying to do right by Todd Gurley and saying the right things and doing the right things, and they fed him a lot. And you almost wonder if now that Girley is gone, and he was probably like the last guy who was like a star, I guess Donald but on offense, the last guy who was like a star before he got there, that now he kind of has a little more freedom. He doesn't have to worry about what people are thinking or what he says. And who knows if he cared that much anyway. I just I don't know. Part of me just thinks we could see something special now that he can. It feels like he's freed up to do what he really wants with the running back position, now that he doesn't have to worry about answering questions every week about how many carries girl I got? And is he healthy? And is he you're you're running back number one? Is your starter? Are you saving him for the playoffs? What are you doing? Like? I just think it'll be interesting to see that. And and the Cowboys, you know, the Cowboys are good and they're going to be good. Um, you're right about the offensive line and that's a concern. Um. And then you know it was it was Gerald McCoy, like their biggest off season signing, and then he got hurt and released afterwards. So you wonder, like I don't. I didn't love the Cowboys offseason, the Marie Cooper deal, which you know, I think he can be good this year. I worry about it a little on the back end. But their off season to me was basically they they didn't do anything with Dak. They signed to Marie Cooper to a large deal that I don't love, and then they signed Gerald McCoy, who is already gone. And so you know, I'm simplifying things a little bit um but I don't know. I could see either of these teams having a down season and we look back and say the signs were kind of there, or I could see either team winning eleven or twelve games, and uh, I'm gonna stay away from Week one, totally, totally gutless. I have I have nothing. You're making a face. What are you gonna say? No? No, I was gonna I'm gonna say this, and then the Cowboys are gonna end up putting like sixty points on the rams on on Sunday Night. The Cowboys build a fantasy team this year, they really loaded up on skill positions. I don't think they're very good in the trenches. Uh the offensive line is still obviously it's good, but it's not what it was and it won't be what it was in Week one with with Collins out and uh, a lot of questions defensively here and like it, look they're doing something news So maybe they catch the Rams off card, but uh boy, I don't know. I think the Cowboys just don't really have that. They you got to build the guts, and I don't think they really they really have that on this roster at this point. And like I said, now that I've said it, they'll they'll hang sixty five points on the on the RAM Sunday night because they are also they're they're gathered with Russell Wilson listening to the show Bolton Board material. I will say you, after I trashed the Cowboys off season, I did not hate their hall off season. You edited the story where I predicted that Ceedee Lamb will have more receiving yards than anyone else in the NFL over the next decade and for the whole twenties. So I'm not trashing the Cowboys entire off season. I do like Lamb and I'm a big Michael Gallop fan, and I think that whole you know, they can have a very good season, and he has a bright future. So I don't want to trash their whole uh, their whole off season. I'm ceedee lamb Philly fans people were hoping he would fall to them. So you know, well, let's uh, let's make it up to them by trashing another NFC E S team here. So let's go to Monday night. Uh, Steelers at Giants. I'll I'll start this one. This is my favorite bet of the week. I And actually I'm doing two things that I don't like doing normally. One I'm betting on a road favorite, a pretty heavy road favorite. And to um, i'm projecting turnovers. I don't think you can safely project takeaways, uh, except for maybe in this case here. Now that the Giants are getting five and a half points, the total is forty six. Uh. The Steelers were the best team in the league taking the football away a year ago. Uh. It wasn't a fluke. They create pressure. They were fifth in Football Outsiders pressure rate last year. Pressure leads to takeaways and makes offenses play off schedule, and it leads to mistakes. Uh. Not to mention t J. Watt is the best in the league at forcing fumbles fourteen over the last two years. That leads the league. Tend strip sacks over the last two years leads the league. Daniel Jones, And I really do like Dania Jones. And I love quarterbacks who are willing to hang and and sort of buy that extra second in the pocket and allow the receivers that extra beat to get open. And that's Daniel Jones. But he doesn't protect the ball while he's doing it. And I don't know. T J. Watton might end up taking the ball from him like four or five times this game. Uh. He Jones has to absolutely change the way he plays if he is going to keep the ball in this game. Uh, it's just to me, it's a nightmare matchup. And on top of that, Giants breaking in four new starters on the offensive line, I don't think they can. When I think about this game, I think back to like the Steelers like overwhelming, uh you know, the Bengals on that Monday night last year, or or when they just had their way with the Rams and the Rams couldn't figure it out up front last year. I think they're just gonna completely overwhelmed, whelm them defensively. Uh. And my last factoris for this game. He got Giants one in ten as a home underdog against the spread over the last three seasons. And uh, I don't want to play up this link too much because it's very anecdotal, but I do just want to point out Joe Judge, who, Uh he's a disciplinarian by the way, he's he's a Belichick disciple. Uh. He will if you do something wrong, you'll you'll run sprints. And I don't know he's in the cup and rosen on you. I I don't know what he does there, but it's old school football. You should be worried about turnovers because if the palls on the ground, he's gonna dive down and get it. So the point in the Giants favor the last two Belichick disciples here in their in their first games as head coaches, Matt Patricia with the Lions seen home loss to the Jets on the Monday night, and then Brian Flores last year with the Dolphins fifty to tend home loss to the Ravens. Again, a little bit anecdotal, but it just sort of uh, maybe it just tells you that, you know, culture change takes a while, but however it adds up. I really think the Steelers are just gonna destroy the Giants in this one. I was prepared to make fun of that sat you're gonna pull, but those final scores, Um, yeah, I'm with you. I'm all in on the Steelers hype. And I think you're right about the defense. One thing that uh, it gives me hope for them that they'll keep up the turnover rate is just how neatly it seemed to uh flip right when they got makeup Fitzpatrick and so you know they passed the eyeball test. Watching him immediately make a huge difference, and to me, you know, I hope. I think that's a good sign that you know, part of it's their personnel and and bringing back those guys and then obviously a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, which everyone's talking about this year. But remember they had running back injuries last year, they had receiver injuries. It's they're not just bringing back Big Ben. They're bringing back like their whole offense. So yeah, I'm really high on them this year. And uh, I'm not high on the Giants. And I definitely. You know, anything under a touchdown, I'm happy to take the Steelers. And that's actually that's gonna be one of my best bets for the week to when we do those at the end. And uh, let's let's go with the late night Monday night game. Got the double header for when you have to chase your losses. But you shouldn't be losing anything if you're listening to the show. Uh, Titans at Broncos. This line has really swung it open at Broncos giving one and a half. It is now Broncos getting two and a half. Total is forty one. Von Miller is out. We don't have an updated on Courtland Sutton, the Broncos number one received right now, but he did leave practice with what seemed like a serious shoulder injury on Thursday, and and I mean, boy, that's a that is a tough way to wrap up the off season here for the Broncos. But uh uh, you know we mentioned the show a little bit sloppy tackling. That's probably what you're gonna get in week one. You've had no live reps here. Uh, Derrick Henry and A. J. Brown, those are the two last guys in the league you would want to try to tackle at this point. Uh. So the Broncos're gonna head out there, and I understand why uh this total is low and why this this line isn't uh, you know more heavily in the titans favor. When the Titans went out to Denver last October, they lost sixteen nothing. Broncos d dominated that game. That was Mariota started. Uh. Tannehill ended up coming in on relief in that one. But uh against Joe Flacco, that's a lifetime Joe Floco and Marcus Sariota with the starters in this one. UM, I do really like the Titans, even giving two and a half on the road here. I usually don't like teams giving points in Denver. Uh. The only thing I'm gonna put out, I mean, look like I said, totals forty one in the Tannehill era here Tannehill as a starter. Uh, Titans have had forty three Titans games, I should say, have had forty three plus points in eleven of Tannehill's thirteen starts. Those games had an average of fifty one point nine points. Um. I think the system is real. I think the system works even if Tannehill is going to regress a little bit. And like I said, I mean having to go after week one and tackle Derrick Henry and A J. Brown. That's uh that that's a nightmare scenario here for the Broncos. Yeah. So I initially I wrote down the lines when I was looking at these games, uh, when the Broncos were favored, and I just wrote one sentence, Howard the Broncos favorite in this game. And then we sat down to do the podcast and uh, I looked at the updated numbers and saw they had totally flipped. Um. Whether that was the von Miller news that may have been the part. Yeah, you know, Tennessee is a better team. Um, I like him. I like everything that you said about trying to tackle Derrick Henry and a J. Brown. And you're totally right, um man. I mean we talked about home field advantage and mile High is like the most interesting one when you throw out the fans and you just talk about the altitude and then what didn't Melvin Gordon come out and say that he didn't like it and he was having a hard time getting used to it. You know, I guess you'd think it will be an advantage for Denver, given that they've been training there even though they didn't have any preseason games. But who knows. I mean some of their guys could be struggling with it too, if it's their first actual game action, uh, you know, at altitude since last December. So who knows? This is? This is one. I'm I just I think you you just eyeball and you pick the Titans and and move on that. For me, it's a it's a pretty easy call here. I'm I'm low on Denver. I will admit. I know some people think they're much first gier than I do, and I don't feel that way about them this year, But I just I like Tennessee here and not too much else to say, let's go, uh, let's talk about our own coward is here and sort of rapid fire. Some of these remaining games will start with I mean, look, this is the game of the week, the the the Bucks at Saints Brady versus Breeze. The Saints right now giving three and a half total forty eight and a half. I look, I just see that that half point, I see that hook and and just say, oh, I guess give me the Bucks in this one. But I don't really know to expect. Yeah, the Bucks, I mean everyone, it's the story of the season, the story of the week. What Tom Brady gonna look like. They're playing with them for the first time. Um, and I kind of, you know, I just want to see it before I believe in it. Um. You know that Bucks defense is definitely underrated and part of why they should be good this year. I was looking back last year they played the Saints twice. They allowed thirty one in a Bridgewater game and thirty four to Breeze last year. And you know, I just think the Saints, I many people think that they're gonna be like the one seed and then fade in the playoffs. And I could see some kind of a fate like that. But I just think early in the season, they're always they're they're they're always clicking, and I think they're gonna put up some points and win that game. The other four o'clock Chargers at Bengals Joe Burrow debut here, the Bengals are getting three points. The total is forty two. Uh. Bengals are interesting to me. I I I hate the defense. I think everyone does. I think the offense might be really good. I am a Joe Burrow believer. Uh, the Chargers. I was really excited to get on the bandwagon. Like last February. They were minus seventeen in takeaway differential last year. Uh. I mean, look, their pass rush wasn't good enough. It should be a whole lot better than it was. Uh. You know you have Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Those guys didn't deliver last year. They should They should be better this year. But again, I mean this is a team. They had four teen takeaways last year. That is that is pathetic. That was last in the league. That can't happen and it probably won't happen again. They're just gonna catch some breaks they'll get into like the mid twenties. Uh. I just I wish they had gone and gotten Cam. I mean, I wish they had hung on to Philip Rivers. If if you're gonna switch it to to Tyrod, uh, they're gonna try and game manage their way two wins here. It's gonna be a lot of run heavy stuff. Uh. I mean, we've seen Tyrode with two franchises now and and he's great. I'd love to have in my quarterback room. But He's just not a guy who's going to go out there and play the kind of aggressive football you want from a quarterback in so, uh, look, they'll they'll probably win the takeaway differential on the year. Will they be aggressive enough to score points here? I don't know, but I guess i'd lean Chargers in this game, giving the field goal on the road and just trust that, uh, they'll hang around and they're probably less likely to make some sort of crushing mistake. And also the Bengals are just not good up the middle of that defense. I'm gonna take the Chargers. I'm gonna make this very simple. I like Burrow. I'm excited to watch him. I think he could have a good rookie season. The numbers I saw it earlier this week, I don't have it in front of me. The numbers are not great for rookie quarterbacks starting Week one, and I just think especially this year where he didn't they have a preseason. He literally has never taken a snap against an NFL defense, you know, besides practice, but for him to have his very first experience, uh seeing a game at that speed on an NFL field, in a game where it actually counts against a real team with a good defense that just worries me. And so I'm going to take the Chargers there and no offense to Joe Burrow. I picked him to win Rookie of the Year. I think he can figure things out as the season goes along. But to expect him to uh, you know, and I know they're getting three points, but to expect him to win that game or keep it that close to within a field goal? Uh, in his first real snaps. I'm happy to take the Chargers there and six more one o'clock's uh. Colts at Jaguars. Jaguars plus eight total is forty five? You got anything on this one? Which I will say this game, the Jags scare me a little. I'm lower on the Colts. I know you put the Colts in the Super Bowl. Um I I will. I will just say I uh, I could for whatever reason, I could see this being the big upset of the week that no one sees coming. I'm in a survivor pool. This is a horrible decision. But this year, my two brothers and I are splitting an entry in a high stick survivor pool, and we went with Indie, which was not my pick, and I was overruled, and I am terrified that this is gonna come back to bite me. Not that anyone listening here cares about my Survivor pool, but I don't know. There's just something about this game. Um. The Cults, to me, are not a team that's gonna blow a lot of teams out this year, like I think they wanna. I know they got Philip Rivers and he can sling the ball, but I was worried about him at the end of last season. I think they want to run the ball and uh shorten the game, and I just, you know, a big spread for them. I'm not going to pick them to cover many big spreads. And I know people are down on Jacksonville, but I like Jacksonville to cover and I'm a little bit worried about them. This one screams Minshoe magic with the backdoor cover it does. Couldn't couldn't lead to six in the final three seconds. Yeah, I am picking the Colds in the Super Bowl. I do think division rivalry. To open the season on the road familiar opponents, I think that numbers a little too scary for me, So I will I will give a slight lean to Jacksonville Jets at Bills. This is another one. Bills minus six and a half total thirty nine and a half. That's a that's a strange combination there with with with the big numbers. I worry about the Jets defense. I think they're gonna be much better offensively. I know the weapons aren't great. Chris Herndon is. I mean, look, he was supposed to be a focal point and he's back, and I think the Jets are going to be better than they have been. But mostly this is another one. I think it's just gonna be a close game. I think it's a one possession game here, So I'm leaning Jets on this one. I feel the same as you and I Actually my notes also start. This is another one, literally comparing this game to the one we just talked about. Again, it's a divisional game. Buffalo was my was last year's version of the not a team that blows anybody out kind of team. Although they did, they ended up they covered there's you probably have it in front of you with their record against the spread. But looking back last year they Buffalo, they won seventeen sixteen against the Jets in Week one, and then they lost to the Jets thirteen six weeks seven And this just strikes me as that those low scoring games and the teams in twenties, which I think is how Buffalo wants to win this year. And that's a recipe for a close game. So you know, if the spreads around six six and a half, it feels like a little too much. And uh, you know this is this is a game I lay in the Jets for sure. Yeah, that was I I should I should correct you met she was a week seventeen, that was that was a sit out game. The man was that they lost the second time, but uh, it was a I've forgotten the twenty nineteen season. I need to go back and look they did uh one three and one in their last five against the spread, one in four straight up for the Bills. Uh. Dolphins at Patriots, Patriots giving six and a half. The Cam Newton Patriots total is forty two. We saw Look we saw Week seventeen last year Miami went up there and uh and and and upset the Patriots knocked them out of the uh the two seed in the a f C. I am curious to see how the Dolphins handle what's in offense. They haven't seen yet they were not prepared for Lamar Jackson a year ago. I don't think Cam is gonna have a Lamar Jackson season, But I mean the Dolphins had the completely wrong game plan too to slow Lamar Jackson. You wonder if that might play out. But six and a half, I think six and a half is too much here for this Patriots team with all the opt outs and uh Ryan Fitzpatrick, who I don't know. He'll either win this game or he'll lose it by four touchdowns. Yeah, I feel the same as you. I said at the very top that I was scared of some of these big lines and I was leaning underdogs. And that's part of why I like the Jaguars, I like the Dolphins. It just feels like a lot. There's so much we don't know. I'm very excited to see whatever the new England offense is gonna look like with Cam there. But yeah, I'm gonna take the points here like I did in a few other games. Bears out Lions, Lions giving three points total is forty three and a half. I keep on going back and forthness. I currently have the Bears up there. I think I'm going to change it to the Lions between now and Sunday, especially if it stays at three. Uh. I don't know. I've been buying on the Lions for like three years and they keep on letting me down. Uh. Matthew Stafford playing at m VP level. Uh first half last season before he got hurt. Just the defense was so bad that no one noticed. Defense can't be as bad as it was. They got nowhere to go but up defensively, and Stafford's back, they might, they might be better than the Bears. At this point, I was waiting to hear how you're going to defend your lines. That are bold predictions from the mm QB. You had Detroit winning the NFC North, which was interesting and which I don't agree with. This game, I don't this is my This is the least interesting game on the board. To me. I just have visions of Trabinsky and David Blow on Thanksgiving Day, and I know that's not what we're gonna say when we are going to see Trabisky. But I don't know. I just I don't see the Lions as an ascending team, just the way every single X Lion just rips Matt Patricia after he's out the door. I just I see doom in Detroit this year. I think they are much more likely to uh go six and ten than go nine and seven. So I kind of I I'm not high on either of these teams. It's a stay away from May. But uh, you know, I don't even I don't want to. I don't want to talk myself into either of these teams. I don't want to feel positive about either of them. I gotta get guys who buy into the program, which the program works. Is that why we got rid of Jimmy this week? Send a message? Uh the other NFC. Oh, I mean we got two NFC North the Division games here. That's a pretty good way to start the season. Packers at Vikings, Vikings giving two and a half total is forty six. I mean, look, I I still remember the Packers going in there Monday night in a game that the Vikings had to have if they were gonna be in the division title hunt here, and the Packers just handed it to them. The Packers overwhelmed them. Uh Packers defense against Vikings offense. So I'm I'm leaning Packers here getting points. Yeah, I picked the Vikings on our site. That was that pick was made before Daniel Hunter was placed on I R and he's gonna be out three games, and that's definitely gonna be a big loss. I'll admit I'm I'm worried about Aaron Rodgers revenge mode, and I'm excited to see him attempt to light the world on fire. But this is one where it's just you know, it's week one and I picked Minnesota to win the division, and so it just felt like, uh, favored by less than a field goal, I've got to pick them to win the game, and we'll see how the season plays out. This is this is a stay away from me. These are two close seams. Like you know, I talked about how much I how little excitement I have her Lions Bears. These are the two teams I expect to be actually competing for the division title. I do like both of them. I think they're I think one of them is gonna win the division and one of them is gonna be in the wild card mix. So it's for real. It's it's likely to stay away from me. But if you make me pick one, I I will. I will stick with my preseason pick and go with the Vikings, and we'll wrap it up with a classic rivalry Las Vegas at Carolina, Raiders at Panthers, Panthers getting three points forty seven and a half is the total. I mean, look, the Panthers are are completely revamped defense, new coaching staff, new quarterback. I mean, it's just a completely changed team. It's almost like an expansion team at this point. Although they do have Christian McCaffrey. Uh, Raider, I don't know, Raiders. Do they sneak into a wild card spot this year? I am going Raiders in this one. I I really just can't find justification for picking the Panthers. Yeah, I was wondering, you know, just does the line move because every all the locals in Vegas now are betting on the local team, like was it would this originally have been was five and it wasn't. That's how big as gamblers were now, I don't think so. And now with more states having it and people just doing it on their phones from home in New Jersey and wherever else, I don't. I don't quite think so either. Um no, yeah, Carolina, we should be treating them like a bad team, right, Um? You know, I I don't love the Raiders, but it's only three points and it feels like everyone expects Carolina to be like a four and twelve, five and eleven team, so we should probably treat them that way in week one. And yeah again, so of these these are are quote unquote rapid fire games even though we're you know, we're not going rapid fire. Um, but that's because we had less to say about them. And you know, hey, I like Vegas. Here, Uh, start off the Vegas Era with a win and a cover that's that's a true Vegas way, you know. Uh, good teams, good teams win, great teams cover. You gotta start the Vegas Era with a cover that was that was a classic lightning ish round Lightning Week one here, Uh, let's do it, Mitch, let's h let's unveil our best bets. Do you want to go first? Should I go first? How do you want to do this? Jimmy usually decides, yeah, well you're the host, you go first. You have so many to get through, like I want to make sure you have any time I do. I'm I'm going six here because I mean whatever, it's it's been a long offseason. Let's have some fun. Are we not going to start by uh discussing our records here until off for a little we're using the same Google doc we have them, right, Yeah, I mean, you know, unremarkable. I mean I I made money last year. I was thirty and two. That's uh overt mm hmm. I you know, I suggested this because I thought I had beaten you. And then I opened the tab and saw that I guess I. I maided down the stretch. I I thought that I was the defending champion. That's the I don't want to talk about this, no, I I went. It looks like I went thirty one and twenty eight for a tidy fifty two point five per cent. So we're gonna we can build on this, Garrett, we can be bigger. You were even Stephen Mitch. Alright, So I got six here, Like I said, favorite bet of the week stealers on Monday Night giving five and a half at Giants. I also have for sides Falcons plus two versus Seattle Rams plus three versus Dallas, couple of home dogs there Tennessee giving two and a half at Denver in the late game Monday night, and then two totals. I have Eagles versus football team over forty three and uh Titans Broncos over forty one. All right. I originally had three, and then I of course talked myself into two more as we were doing this. So I will have five best bets, and two of them are going to be the same as yours. I also have that Steelers minus five and a half of the Giants. I agree with you on the Philly Washington over forty three, and I'm gonna do it because I'm a sucker. I will also take Philly at minus five and a half, so we'll take the win and the over um and then my other two. I still I like that. Uh what did we say as the final line on this Titans Broncos? It's Titans minus two and a half? Is that what we said? Uh? We said minus two and a half. Yeah, under a field goal. I'll go with it. I'll take Titans minus two and a half. And then, you know, I talked a big game about my Cardinals, and I will say they were originally at plus seven and a half when I was talking about them covering that has six gone since gone down to six and a half, which is a little bit concerning. But listen, they were my upset special outright for the week six and a half. No problem, they ought to cover, right, right, let's let's do it. My final best bet, I'm gonna take Cardinals minus six and a half against the forty fighters. Al Right, Mitch, I feel good about this week one here, so I just feel good. Have you good about football being back? It is good. It's good to have fundball back. I agree. Right. You know we said, hey, let's do like a half hour podcast. Here we are an hour later. You can tell we're excited our three of the week one gambly show. Now it'll uh, I'm excited football is back. I'll be even more excited next week when Jimmy Traina is back with us in uh Indie virtual studio here for the week to show. But uh catch us every Friday. This has been the MMQBAT Gambling Podcast.

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