The MMQB NFL PodcastMatt Verderame and Gilberto Manzano break down why the Bills fired offesive coordinator Ken Dorsey after the team's loss to the Bronco's on Monday night, the must win game for both teams on Thursday night between the Bengals and Ravens, what we learned from the shootout between the Lions and Chargers, and we preview the rest of the week eleven slate
Hell, everyone, and welcome to the latest edition of the Monday Morning Quarterback Podcast.
Or the TV podcast.
Want to be more sustinc I am Matt Bergram alongside Gilberto Manzano as always, this time coming you on a Wednesday, and said of Thursday, because Bill's got a little time coming to him, good for you, you know, also sometime coming to him, Ken Dorsey, that man's got a lot of time now on his hands. Now we're gonna talk about whether or not maybe that that should have been the case, but it is the case. Is the Bills on Tuesday, let's say, late morning, fired their offensive coordinator who has been in that post for a year and a half, taking over for Brian Davile. He was hand picked by Josh Allen. He is now gone. In the interim is Joe Brady, who is also serving as the quarterbacks coach for Josh in Buffalo. And so that is obviously where we're going to begin here. For a team that is five and five, the panic level is on a scale of one to ten at about a seventy nine. After they lost in a dumbfounding way to the Denver Broncos in a game where they had four turnovers and somehow that wasn't the worst part of the game for them. It was the last part where counting to eleven proved to be really, really hard. So Gilberto, I bring you in man. You wrote about the game last night. I loved you take on it. What is your thought now on the Bills? Dorsey included as we sit here looking at a team that, according to the New York Times simulations and predictions, has them at a nineteen percent chance to make the playoffs.
Yeah, first of all, Matt, you know, when I was booking my trip to Oklahoma, I'm going to a wedding this week. That's why we're on a short week here. And I appreciate you guys being here earlier this this podcast, but I did not expect, you know, the Bills to be five and five when I planned the trip, and Ken Dorsey to be fired. And you know what, Matt, You know you would have asked me maybe a week ago about Ken Dorsey out. I probably would have told you, yeah, they need to change that offense is not looking good. And yeah, I get the EPA, DVO whatever you want to call it. Yeah, the numbers are fine, but I'm watching football and they're not fine. But after that game yesterday and Monday Night Football, it kind of felt like Sean mcdermy need a scapegoat, and I don't like that approach because that was the defensi's fault. I know Josh Allen had a bunch of turnovers, but we've known Josh Allen does turnovers for four or five years now. I don't think it's a big Ken Dorseyer problem. But when you have, like you mentioned, twelve men on the field, you get the d DPI call there, and then just Sean McDermott doing a bunch of weird stuff like bench and James Cook when you don't bench Gabe Davis when he's the one that dropped the ball and it went into an interception for Josh Allen. So it felt like maybe mcdermy, you know, cave to the pressure and people saying we need a change, and I'm like, you kind of chose the wrong day because you're the one that was pretty bad on Monday Night Football and the Bills could have still won that game if it wasn't for the twelve minute on the field. So I feel a little uneasy about that, Matt, But I guess you know if you would ask me and we could go. Like I mentioned, they needed some kind of change. That offense is not working. And then Matt, you have Trevon Diggs, a brother of Sephan Days, saying fourteen, get out of there, you gotta leave. Remember Josh Allen before Sephan Dicks, he wasn't good. So not a lot of good things that coming out of Buffalo.
No, not in any way, shape or form. Look, my whole thing with this Dorsery firing is I'm not defending Dorsey's record here. They have not been good offensively. I don't care what all the analytics people say about Well, you know, their EPA and their offense sucks. I mean, watch the games. They can't execute. To turn the ball over constantly, and that's another analytical thing. There's always that trope of like, well that's bad luck. It's not bad luck that Josh Allen fired a ball at Denver's corner. There's no luck. Now you want to say that Gabe Davis dropping that ball and going to his hands gets picked off. Okay, fine, that's not on Allen, but that's not bad luck. Look right to his hands, catch the ball, do your job. Allen has been a turnover machine. Now for four years running on a very competitive football team, he leads the league in turnovers over that stretch. He leads the league in turnovers this year. He led the league in turnovers last year. Like, at some point, that's not a Ken Dorsey problem, that's not a Sean McDermott problem. That's a Josh Allen problem. Like he reminds me in a lot of ways of farv except for two things. Four of won three consecutive MVPs. While he was doing that. He was far and away the most productive quarterback in the league at the time over that stretch ninety five to ninety seven, and it was a different era. You could play the way Josh Allen played in the nineties. It was different. You can't throw twenty picks now, that's not the way the NFL is set up. So you're sitting here looking at a team that's five and five. That defense has hung tough, but he's really beaten up, and you're looking at a quarterback who's supposed to be an elite player. He's not playing like an elite player. He's playing like a pretty good player. That's not enough. I also just wanted to at what point here is McDermott next. I mean, when you start losing coordinators, that usually is a you know, a move before the big move. Frasier was gone this offseason, Dorsey's now gone. Well, there's only so many other guys that are gone before you're gone. And it seems like if the Bills don't make the playoffs, there's a very good chance that maybe McDermott's following suit.
Yeah, it's not a good loqu when people are missing the old coordinators, like, oh, where's Brian David, where's Leslie Fraser? Well you still got the being guy, Sean McDermott, but nobody really cares that he's around. So yeah, you know, it's it's kind of rare when a head coach fires a coordinator. Okay, let's let's gotta spark here, we need something going, let's fire somebody. It doesn't happen all the time. I know the Raiders are kind of doing it with you know, Antonio Pears when they're winning two games, but like I'm talking about a Super Bowl contender, like teams that really need to do something go far, Like, it's rare when that kind of okay, yeah, let's look back in November, we're here at the super Bowl when we fire that guy that really worked out, Like it just it just doesn't seem right to me. So you know, they have a lot of problems there, and you might be onto something here, Matt, because this team is too talented and they disappointed. And it's not like the forty nine ers disappointment like Fortyn Hoars at least gone to the super Bowl. They continue to go to the NMCLE title games and may they don't win all the time, but the Bills just go to the second round. They're like the cowboys of the AFC, and they're just really too talented. And you're right about Josh Allen And you know, I got pretty fed up with the turnovers yesterday and I wrote about it, and it just he's a special quarterback. And I got kind of annoyed when Troy Aikman was on the broadcast saying, yeah.
You gotta live with it. He's just so talented.
He plays backyard forl like you can't live with it. Like, like you mentioned, it's not the nineties anymore, so you know there's something you got to figure out to what to do. And now I'm not saying go to the extent of what Sean Payne is doing with Russell Wilson, because he was a flat out game manager and it worked and he wasn't you know, recklez Or. I let take a couple of yards of running off here, throw me a couple of deep balls if I can. But that's not the old Russell Wilson. But it's working. It's in a structure he's fond in the playbook and maybe josh Na needs to do that. But it's complicated because he's so freaking talented.
He is very talented, but at some point it's undermined by the fact that he can't stop getting in his own way. And this is an old, expensive team and a lot of places around them. I wrote that in July and Bills fans went nuts, So it's the truth. Look around. A lot of these guys are at thirty plus and getting paid a lot of money because you haven't drafted well in the last handful of years. Okay, k looks like a hit, but I mean Kyrie illmam. Even when he's health it can't get on the field. I mean literally, he's inactive almost every week. My biggest thing last night watching that game beyond the obvious, which was the turnovers is just never ending with the Bills. How the hell do you have an extra guy on that field goal block team? I mean, it wasn't as though the Broncos hit some hail Mary of a pass and everybody's scrambling because there's no timeouts and you're running to get guys out there. You knew from the second Tron Johnson committed that foul, that pass interference. You knew we're gonna have to send out a field goal team. They're taking these we're calling timeouts. Hey, this is the unit we're putting out there. This is the call we're gonna have. Let's make sure everybody's on the same page. You didn't know that. You had five minutes in real time to know that. I mean, if I'm Buffalo, the first thing I'm doing today is getting a whiteboard and a marker and having everybody count to eleven and making sure they stop at eleven. I mean, that is an inexcusable season altering penalty. It's one thing when that happens on defense. Hey man, you look, you're shuffling a million different personnel groupings. Some guy doesn't get the call. I get it. You're the special team's do or die block team. Who's the extra guy? How do you not know that you're not on that team? I mean, at what point did it not click in? Like, wait a minute, I'm not out here for this. I mean that part, to me falls on the coaching, but the rest of it, all the turnovers on the players. And then last, I'll say this, I think it's a real bad look when you got guys who are captains on the team, like Gabe Davis who refused to talk after the game. Hey, look, man, stand up and be accountable. You're a captain. That's part of your job. Yesterday, Mitch Morris had to sit there next to Josh Allen during the press conference and basically speak for the team because Josh Allen, if you watch that, then couldn't talk. Tim Graham the Athletic did a great job laying it out that his longest answer was eighteen seconds. Most of his answers were under five seconds. You're the leaders of this team. Von Miller didn't talk after the game. Nowhere to be found, Like you're the leader. In von Miller's case, you' getting paid one hundred and twenty million dollars. In Allen's case, you're getting paid a quarter of million dollars. You guys know where to be found after this game. Stand up, be accountable. It speaks to a total lack of strength in the room. And it's something that when you look at this team's schedule going forward. They got the Jets coming up, okay, fine, at Philly, at Kansas City, at Miami, at the Chargers home to Davis. Guess what, they're two and five in the conference they got. They can lose one more game, and if they lose two, they're sitting home with you and me watching the playoffs.
Yeah, and by the way, a good mention on Tim Graham. He had a good story last week about how the Bills are just not having fun offensively and that's not part.
Of EPA and DVOA, Like these are.
Things that numbers can't really account for, and like, yeah, everython's kind of been a struggle. They're not having fun and then they go into the locker room and don't talk to anybody, and you know, being a big report, that's one of my pet pee's Like if you're a captain, you better talk. And I don't care if it's like two or three guys talking, but if their captains, you gotta do it. You gotta sign the role there. And you know, if you're the quarterback, that's part of the gig. You got to talk every single time. And I know he spoke, but like, you know, give a little more than whatever you said at eighteen seconds. So you know, it's just a bad looker around. And maybe they're looking at the schedule and like, yeah, maybe we'll get the Jets, but you already lost to the Jets, and yeah, the Chiefs and.
The Cowboys or whatever it is.
It's a hard schedule, like you mentioned, like it's very competitive in the AFC, like it might require ten wins, and I don't see this Buffalo team winning ten games and doing well. So I don't know. I think the ryans on the wall. And then you fire candors, like again, it's rare when a team that's so talented points a finger and says, yeah, firing that guy was the right call.
Yeah no, all right, there's no question. Let's move on to another portion of the AFC from Sunday, which is a day full of upsets. The AFC North. The Ravens had a twenty four to nine lead in the third quarter on a Browns team that had Deshaun watched in seven of twenty one at one point, and then he finished the game by completing fourteen straight passes. They come from behind with a pick six. Bolting's had a pick six in the game to win thirty three to thirty one. The Browns moved to a half game back. They split the season series. Then in Cincinnati, the Bengals and the Texans put on a wild game. The Texans ended up winning thirty to twenty seven, aided by a couple of Joe Burrow interceptions. There was also a drop touchdown by Tyler Boyd in the last two minutes. CJ. Stroud really announcing himself here these last couple of weeks. Leading Houston down the field, they get a kick from Matt Avindola just squeezed inside the right, up right to win the game. The Texans moved to five and four. Get to them here in a second, but let's stay on the Ravens and Bengals, who both fell apart at home. Ravens now seven to three. Bengals are precarious five and four. They play each other Thursday night at M ANDT Bank Stadium. Ravens won the first matchup in a week two. So I guess thirty thousand foot question, what do you stand on these teams? And who is this game? I would assume this game is bigger for Bold or for Cincinnati rather they're five and four, but it feels like it's a pretty massive game for Baltimore as well.
Yeah, record wise, you know it's on the Bengals. But the weird thing, Matt, I feel more confident in the Bengals even though they're in last place and they're not even in the playoffs right now currently as a stand. So but again, like we mentioned, as we've seen the movies before, the Bengals tend to do well and the Ravens don't do well in the playoffs. So the Bengals get in and they get a big time victory on Thursday Night Football, We're gonna go back to ranking the top five, top three on the on the power rankings. So because because we know what Joe Burrow does, and you know, honestly, maybe they should have gone for that fourth and goal from the Houston thirteen, and that allows TJ. Strout to go for it and get a game. When you drive but it's a ricket quarterback, and I get it, you have a good defense, and but that you know, they should have won that game.
That's my point.
But with the Ravens, it's like, you know, we were talking about it last week and it's like we don't know how they how will they perform playing from behind when they have to pass the ball? And I know they weren't really behind until the final the final I guess seconds of the game, right, but they had to score and they had to throw the ball. They couldn't just rely on the running game, and they had multiple opportunities in the fourth quarter. They have multiple fourteen point in leads, I think in the fourth quarter alone. Like at one point, like I was getting ready to watch the Lions and the Charges, and I'm like, how did they blow that game?
Like?
How is it tight right now?
How is it one point deficit because of miss field goal or extra point from Dustin Hopkins and and to see Lamar throw the pick and just couldn't get anything going. And I'm like, that's exactly why we can't trust the Ravens because we haven't seen the passing attack in sync yet, we haven't seen them play from behind, like I think they're like maybe had like twenty minutes of game time this season playing from behind, so maybe it might do them so good these Ravens playing Joe Burrow and Joe Burrow goes out to a fourteen zero lead and Lamar Jackson has to air it out and maybe you know, they kind of learned from that playing from behind, because yeah, they're crushing teams, but like, what does that mean? You're crushing the NFC team that you won't see in the in the playoffs for the AFC. So they're good, they're talented, and they're gaming it up defensively they don't have much talent, but what if that catches up to them in the playoffs where the talent can't you know, live it to the scheme and you're following me high you and Lamar to do something with OBJ and Rashad Bateman. I don't feel good about that.
Yeah, look, I agree in a weird way. I actually think in some ways it's I mean, it's bigger for the Bengals and since they really need to win the game, but it's also like I have more faith in the Bengals th I do the Ravens. We've talked about this last week. So I won't go two four down the rabbit hole on this. I will say this. One thing that's a dirty secret about the Bengals is scause everybody's focused on Burrow. Do you know where they ranked defensively, like just yards per game against?
I don't the thirtieth.
Wow, they're thirtieth. The Chargers in the Broncos are the only teams worse than them. By the way, stopping the run, which kind of matters against Baltimore. Yeah, they're thirtieth in that too, So that is uh, let's just say concerning as we move forward. I mean, the Bengals have been gassed. They may not have Hubbard, they may not have Hendrickson. They have all kinds of problems defensively right now, all kinds, you know. And by the way, when you look at their yards per yards per carry against, they're thirty first five five yards per carry Denver the only team Worris at five point six.
Well, now I know why Devin s Miglitary went off on them.
I mean, that's if I'm the Bengals, That's what I'm terrified off in this game is the Ravens just run the ball down their throat and control the clock all night long, and there's nothing the Bengals can really do about it. You know what, Baltimore, if they can do it, they're they're gonna do it. They are just gonna keep going back to the well because Lamar for all the praise heaped on him, and I'm not saying it's not rightfully so in some cases, but I look at his numbers. He's on pace for exactly thirty seven hundred passing yards and seventeen touchdowns. I mean, okay, it's it's not great. It's not awful, but it's not great. It's they are a run first team, and they're a team that has to win with pressure on defense and sacks and all that. Now, this this matchup on paper is tailor made for Baltimore. They can run the ball like crazy and Cincinnati can't block anybody, and so you would think at home, Baltimore is gonna win this game. I'm picking Baltimore for those reasons. And I know we're gonna talk about the game a little bit more later, but look, i mean matchups, you know, styles make fights, right, I mean, this game feels like a game. Look at Baltimore goes well, my god, I mean, you couldn't tailor make an opponent for them better than this, I mean all the things. The question is, does Burrow have one of these games where he just pulls it out of the hat? Right? They throw us for three hundred yards and he's making it throw after throw. But they don't. They're not gonna have t Higgins in this game, so you'd imagine Baltimore is gonna double Chase and say beat us everywhere else. It's an interesting game, but it is crazy to think there is a real growing by the minute scenario the Bengals and the Bills don't make the playoffs and.
Say, yeah, that's a real possibility.
It's incredible. All right. Lastly, on Sunday, we obviously just talked about Detexans win. We're gonna talk here about the Texans as well as the forty nine ers who went to Jacksonville with both teams off of by and absolutely smoked Jacksonville thirty four to three, forced three turnovers, got five sacks, perty played great over eleven yards in a ten, three touchdowns, no picks, almost yards passing, laid it on him, really kind of made a statement that hey, we're back they remained tied at the top of the NFC West alongside the Seahawks, who, by the way, starting Thanksgiving night, they played two times in three weeks. What are your overall thoughts here on the Niners kind of getting back on track and then also detections who at five and four if you only at their schedule, like real good shot to make the playoffs at this point.
Yeah, you know, starting starting with the Fury and nine is kind of like, okay, business as usual usual for the offense. You know, Deebo Samuel came back and Trent Winnis came back, and you know, the biggest thing that we kind of maybe overlooked uring this this funk for the forty nine was the running game. You know, they weren't really running since that Cowboys game that beat down in Week four, like you know CEMC and the rushing attack wasn't really kind of getting the yards out. So they had a great performance at Jacksonville and then brought pretty you know, surprise surprise back to form. When every when the complete offense and I get we all want to rank rock party, but when he has a complete offense, like he's great, you know, three touchdowns, the own receptions and he was a little risky or a little reckless trying to throw that Paul out of breadon at Yuk in the back of the ends up with three or four guys around them. Yeah, hey, but they got it. And that's kind of what you have to live with with Rock Party. I know, it's kind of the Josh Allen thing, but you know, for the most part, Brockporty intends to do the job when you have such a load roster like that. But you know, you know, I'll go to the I go to the defense. And it is still kind of surprised that Nick Bosa, Eric Armstead and Javon Harber couldn't get going, but when Chase Young was on the field, it was like the extra spark they needed to get going, and maybe just like his presence alone, like, yeah, they made a trade because we've been stinking it up lately and we're like getting paid a lot of money. Chase Young is there now number two pick in twenty and twenty. Let's step it up here. And they just destroyed Trevor Lawrence, who he did not look good in that game. He was holding the ball too long, make it, trying to force things so they just made that Jaguars offense look pretty pedestrian to me. So that's the biggest thing. If that defense plays like that every single game, I give them a strong chance over to take the Eagles.
In the NFC.
But if they don't play physical like that and have a pass rush, I can't see them doing anything against the Eagles in a potential rematch.
Yeah, you know, it's it's gonna be very interesting to watch the Niners play here, you know. Cut in the coming weeks. Like I said, they have Seattle twice with the Eagles in Philly, they play Baltimore right around Christmas, so I mean, you're gonna have some big games coming up for them. But I still view Philly as the number one team in the NFC. I think the Niners are excellent. I think they can beat anybody on any day. But at the same point, they're kind of like the Ravens in the sense they got to play a certain way. If they can get up on you, they're a nightmare. If they don't get up on you right away, and you can force them to be a little predictable, then they have a problem because you can throw the ball in those corners. If you can if you can block, and you can cause issues for brock Party if you know he's got to sit back there and throw the ball. The problem for Jacksonville's have got down immediately, and that game just went from bad to really bad to oh my god, in the span of about two quarters detections. I can't be more impressed. Stroud at this point is an MVP candidate. I don't think he's gonna win the MVP, but he's a candidate for it. He is clearly, with all due respect to Poka Nakua, he's the offensive rookie of the year that's gonna happen. You look at their schedule like they're gonna get the ten wins, and if they get to ten wins, is gonna make the playoffs. I mean, they've got Tennessee twice, they got Jacksonville at home, they have Indianapolis again, they have Arizona at home, they have Denver at home. Like that team's getting the ten wins now. I don't want to overstate it with them because like many young teams, even good young teams, this Houston is you have ups and downs. This is a team that frankly probably should have lost to Tampa. Okay, but Tampa fell apart in the finals, so I can think if, of course, give detections credit. This is also a team that lost the Falcons and the Panthers. So these things do happen, and you wouldn't be crazy to think, hey, look, maybe they have a couple of stumbles here and they don't get in. I like their odds. I don't know once they get to the playoffs, well, I think they're going into Arrowhead and win the playoff game. Probably not, but like if you're the Texans, you make the playoffs, that's an unbelievable season, like your thrillt to death. We did our we did our awards, mid season awards. Last week. I had the Migo Ryans as my coach of the Year. I mean, I think it's him right right now. For me, it's him, it's O'Connell. And then there's Tomlin who continues to win games despite the fact that the Steelers have an offense led by me at quarterback. It's incredible. So all that said, look, nice win by the Niners, very impressive and the Texans and what else can you say? I want to move to the Bigger story part of our podcast. Which I'm going to tee it up for you because this is a SOFI over the weekend, bigger story the Lions winning or the Chargers losing. In a forty one on thirty eight, she saw a shootout.
Yeah, definitely the Detroit Lions winning. I am done with the Chargers. You could fork them now, Like you know, I've seen enough of Brandon Staley's defense and you've been on it since day one, Matt, so shout out to you, and man, they were getting carved up in any type of way, you know, rushing game, passing game, whatever it is, and you know, but I'll focus on the Lions here and the way they unlocked that that rushing tandem of Jamier Gibbs and David Montgomery, like, and I like the balance that Ben Johnson has. Okay Gibbs, like, you're a home run hitter, you're explosive. How about we use you to build a lead and then we have that lead, get the closer in the chain mover Dave Montgomery to secure that lead. I know that wasn't really the case in the shootout and so far, but I love the formula. They know how to play together. And then I'm on Rossi Brown, who reminds me of Keenan Adam. Like those guys going back and forth in person was pretty cool to see. But they're loaded. I know they had the Jared Goff and he could be a little iffy, but he made that big time throwing fourth and two to Sam Laporta, you know, third and one on the twenty five yeard touchdown to brock right like he was dealing. When you have a balance and unloaded offense and a good offensive line, the top five offensive linemans where the starting unit was there, that's why they were running the ball so well. So I'm impressed, but I'm so concerned about that defense man, like like I didn't really see much of Aiden Hutchinson out there, and they had a strong start, but they haven't been getting to push, you know, like they did in the first month and that second there. It just keeps it kept getting exposed week after week, and I think it really came to light in that Baltimore game. But when the Chargers have Keenan Allen and that's about it on the wide receiver pass catcher front, like double triple team, that got whatever you could do and it just didn't matter. So that could be a problem when they play the Eagles with the forty nine ers, but hey, you could run the freaking football and you could, you know, control the trenches at least on the offensive side. You're always gonna have a chance. And the biggest thing, Matt, that schedule is pretty soft. They could maybe end up with the number one seed. But if they do have Minnesota twice in the final three weeks and the Cowboys in Dallas, so that could maybe make them make them stumble a bit. But if they handle their business, they're going to be in the mix for the for the number one seed.
Their schedule Bears at home, Packers at home at the Saint Sack, could be a tricky game. At the Bears home to Denver, at Minnesota on Christmas Eve, at Dallas home to Minnesota. My guests, they only lose to the rest of the way, they lose to Dallas and they lose one on the one. That would put him in what thirteen and four, not bad, pretty good record. I think Philly is gonna get the one seed, but I think Detroit's got a damn good shot at least getting the two and could get the one, could get the one. Look I think you laid it at all perfectly, so I will agree with you that the line's winning the bigger story. I will say this though, just the kind of dovetail out of this, and then we'll go to our lines of the week. I watched every stap of that game because the other games at that time window were atrocious. I was not gonna sit there and watch Tommy DeVito. Sports Illustrated pays nobody enough to sit there and watch Timy DeVito. Okay, not even paying me double wouldn't do. They'd have to pay me like tenfold, and even then we'd have to have like a union rep negotiate the terms of that. Okay. I sat there and watch that Lins Chargers game, and I genuinely got to a point about midway through the third quarter where I thought to myself, like, do they fire Staley just during this game? Like, does somebody just come down and say, looks and Bret Brandon, Brent but down the headset. We're gonna let Kellen take it from here. And then after this, like we'll have a fan come down and he can coach the rest of the team, and she can coach the rest of the team. Make it's a super fan, have her come down and coach the team. Yeah, you were a defensive first coach and the Lions hung five hundred and thirty three yards under. That is impossible. I mean, that is legitimately almost impossible to do. And yet I believe, I believe I should look this up before I say. I think it's the fourth time somebody's had five hundred yards offense against them this year.
I know Miami did it Week one.
Miami definitely did it, and I in Kansas City, I'm pretty sure did it when they beat him thirty one to four hundred and eighty three yards of offense in that game. Close, I was gonna say, not far off. This is ridiculous. This is ridiculous football, Okay, I mean to just go out there and get absolutely smoked. I thought Minnesota was the other one. Minnesota had four seventy five. So they've given up four to seventy five plus to be accurate, in four games this year. That's insane. To do that once is embarrassing four times. Look it, it's crazy to think that a defense that has Bosa, Max, Samuel Derwin, James like Morgan Fox played well this year. You're the worst defense in football. I mean, you say what you are on about Denver. Denver always gotten better over the last month. The Chargers, it's just the same thing every game, every game is to save every game. They can't. I mean. And the worst part with their defense, it's not even like it's one thing. It's everything. You want to run on him, not a problem, you want to throw all over the place, not a problem. It is. It is impossible Herbert, and I'm critical of him more than most. He couldn't have played better in that game. They scored touchdowns on their last five possessions and lost the game. Because the Chargers are like, that's fine, just keep scoring. It's it's so bad. I don't I was shocked. They shouldn't have shocked. I was surprised that they kept stealing after that playoff de Bacle a year ago. And now you're I mean, you don't look, you're just watching the fruits of that decision. They're sitting here now at four and five, and their schedule is not insane, but hard enough to prime making the playoffs. You gotta get the ten in the AFC. And they're still gonna play the Ravens. Granted it's at home. Still gotta play the Bills, also at home. Still gonna play the Chiefs, also at home. Now granted they're all at home. The problem is they have no home field advantage. So do you care that those games at home? Maybe? Maybe not? You know, the other games at the Packers, at the Pats, Raiders, Broncos twice, you know. But the problem with the Chargers is you look at those games, like, I can see the Chargers losing what the Packers. I can see them losing to Denver, right, Like, you have no faith they're gonna take care of business. I think I think they're gonna end up eight to nine, nine and eight out of the playoffs. And you're sitting here going, Okay, well you wasted another year Herbert's cheap years. It is just a disaster Staley. At some point, man, I mean, you've got to come up with something. I don't try anything, even if it doesn't work, at least you try it. They try nothing and they pay the price for it every week.
Yeah.
And then when they went for it on a running play on fourth and five day, Montgomery, I'm like, you're not passing you going to a run play on four to five? I told you a lot about Stanley's defense.
That's a great point, dude. That was so embarrassing. But they, I mean Detroit was like, yeah, five yards not about and like I know, when you're watching the game on television, you're like, oh, five yards it looks like nothing. I mean, we've been down NFL fields obviously, and anybody who's ever been on any football field to run for five yards on one play is like, that's a decent bit of ground to cover. The Lions are like, you know what, you stink so bad? That's cool. Five yard draw playing, not a problem. And then thirty eight all fourth and two, they could have kicked the field goal. The Lions are like, no, you know what, we'll just pick it up, no issue, We'll just pick it up because we know you can't stop us. And they, sure enough they did and they kick the field goal, they win the game. Is just what a mess, what an absolute mess with the Chargers Week eleven. Let's get into the best five games. Let's start with Thursday Night Football, and of course all these odds, as always, are brought to you by SI Sportsbook as SI sportsbook dot Com. And we're gonna start with the Bengals at the Ravens. I already gave my pick. I think the Ravens are going to win this game. I think the Bengals are actually like a better team, but I just think the matchup is not great and they're all beat up. So I like Baltimore. Uh, where do you stand on this game?
Yeah, the way you broke it down and made me afraid of the pick I already made before we had this show, So I'm just gonna stick to it because I think the Bengals are in desperation mode, and like you mentioned too that they do have Joe Burrow and he could have one of these memory games and he just carries them. I don't feel good about the matchup either. I don't feel good about No. T. Higgins, don't feel good about Hendrickston and Hulbert probab would not be in there, but they really need that game. If they lose that one, they might not make the playoffs. And it just seems kind of absurd for a team that haunted out to make it. And I have way more faith in them than I do with the Bills. So you know what, I'll take a chance here. I don't feel good aout it, but give me the Bengals.
Yeah, no, I listen, it's a good point. I will take the Bengals to cover. I think it's a twenty three twenty type game one way or the other. I'm honestly surprised almost with myself. I feel like I would have picked the Bengals. But man can't stop anybody team, even the Niners are like five hundred yards in that game. He's just didn't lost. He turned it over. But Bengals defense right now, love lou Auneroom on the job he does. There been rough this year. All right, let's go to the second one. Stay in the AFC North. It is a one o'clock kick on the East Coast Sunday afternoon, the Steelers at the Browns. Browns laying four and a half should be a very defensive minded game.
Yeah, and I'm not sure about Deshaun and Watson's ankle injury, but does it really matter. I know he played decent last week. But you know they've won games.
At p J.
Walker, So keep me the Browns. You know they have a running game with Jeroon Ford. You know Amari Cooper's kind of turned back the clock making some players out there, and you know I really like their defensive Browns, but sometimes they kind of just get lit up, like it happened with, you know a little bit with the Ravens. That happened a little bit with the Coats. But you know, maybe they have a bounced back game here and and I don't know, but if if it's a close game, Matt and it's a fourth quarter, the Steelers might just kind of steal it because they can no pun there. But they kind of just find a way to do it in the fourth quarter. And that's why they get out gained every single week and they have a six and three record. But I'll go with the Browns here.
It's amazing that like your commentary, and I don't even I don't disagree with you, by the way, like well, it doesn't even matter with Sean Watson's like PJ Walker. They're paying Sean Watson a record contract and I was guaranteed money, and I don't disagree with you, like PJ Walker to Deshaun, watching this point doesn't even feel like that pick of a drop off. PJ Walker this year has one touchdown in five picks, and he's completing forty nine percent of his passes and You're like, yeah, no, no, you know what if watch doesn't play like I don't it, does it even matter? And I gotta tell you, like I'm with you, I am picking Cleveland. I'm picking the Steelers to coverage a divisional game. I think it's another close game. I will say, though, like I am with you, one thing about Pittsburgh, and I don't know if this is a compliment. You know what you're getting with them. You know exactly what you're gonna get. The Browns. It's like they might play good defensively, they also might get let up by Gardner Minshew. Like they they could play well, or they could blow a lead and lead they could. I don't have any faith in the Browns, but I have less faith than Kenny Pickett. So I'm gonna take the Browns to win the game. Like the Steelers. I don't want to upset to the Pittsburgh hive. I'm sure they're out there. Steelers aren't good. I know there's six and three and like everybody gets old, well, you know those six and they stink. I mean, I maybe watch these games. They get it. They have been out gained in every game this year in in terms of total yards every game and somehow they've won six of them. I mean, I guess in some ways you got to give credit to that. I don't know. It's I feel like if Pittsburgh gets in, they're the obligatory, like, hey, we got in the playoffs with the seventh seed and they got to go play some like real team and get absolutely just slacked. Like it's one of those games where you know, if you're not like us, we're gonna be working the games. Like if you're if you're a fan, you're a diehard fan, you know, like what's the playoff schedule. It's Saturday afternoon and it's like Pittsburgh and Kansas City and they're like, you know, I'm gonna skip that one, Like I'm just gonna go take my girlfriend out for lunch because that game. And then like you checked your phone cause you got just to make sure it's not and it's twenty eight nothing halfway through the second quarter, Like oh never mind, I'm good. Like I'm glad I went out to lunch. I feel like that's where we are at the Steelers.
Yeah, no, I'm which, I wonder what seems gonna be. It's gonna be either the Ravens or the Bengos or the Chiefs.
Who knows?
Yeah, yeah, all right. Third game going Sunday, late afternoon, the Jets at the Bills. This game becoming more intriguing by the second. The Bills as they were on Monday night against Denver laying seven and a half at home. Of course, these steams saw each other week one the famous Aaron Rodgers Achilles game. Jets won that game because Josh Allen had four turnovers and the Bills gave up a punt return for a touchdown. Over time, does history repeat itself? Do we see an absolutely like three mile island level meltdown in Buffalo with the Jets coming to town.
Yeah?
You know, first of all, I'm gonna go with the Bills, but I don't feel good about it. Like last week, I said the Broncos will cover, and I think you said the same thing. And you know, I can't go there to say, Okay, the Broncos are going to beat the Bills. The Pitchers are going to beat the Bills. You know, the Giants are going to cover, and all that's happening, And here I am picking the Bills again, And I think it's more of the Zach Wilson factor, like, they can't get anything going offensively, and if Danner Hacker try its hard as to get Garret Wilson involved against the Raiders and it just didn't work, and then Wilson had that terrible interception, and then Robert sala Is saying, I thought you played great. I don't know what you're watching out there, Robert Salad, but I'm taking the Bills just on that fact alone that I can't trust anything the Jets are doing offensively. I love their defense, but if Josh Allen just gets you know, seventeen points and still has three interceptions, that might be enough. I know we saw week one what occurred, but I still go with the Bills.
I'm taking the Bills to in this game because I have to take the Bills to in this game, okay. And I'm taking the Jets to cover because the Bills have proven that they are not worthy of picking them to cover, because they can't beat anybody. A team that was a really egregious misdefensive holding call away from probably losing to the Giants at home. The Giants, who I think were roughly out gained by six hundred yards by Dallas last weekend and Dallas wasn't even trying for half the game. I'll say this for the Jets, they're very, very good defensively, and I think that alone will keep this a game. But oh my god, man, this is one of those games. It's one of the rare games. I look at it and I think to myself, it's almost a disadvantage of Buffalo to be at home in this game, because if they get off to a slow start, if they turn the ball over early, if they let Zach Wilson drive down for a touchdown, if Breeche Hall critism and it's seven, you know what that place is going to be. Like. I mean, I actually think when you're playing the way Buffalo is playing, it's almost a blessing. Go on the road, go on the road, get out of town, go play a team. The pressure from the out is off. The tension in that building, if they get down to the Jets is going to be off the charts. I think they will win. I am not picking them to cover. They've given me no reason to pick them to cover. So that's where we are with them. To talk plenty about the Bills. Let's go to Sunday night with the team who beat them, the Denver Broncos four and five, three game win streak. I know there are some people now in our line of work, We're all like, hey, what about Denver? Yes, what about Denver? If Denver continues to force five takeaways a game, Denver's gonna look great. The problem is Denver basically had seventeen takeaways last night and barely won the game. So not great. Did the same thing against the Chiefs where they got five takeaways and it was fourteen to nine with seven minutes left. But they host the Josh Dobbs led Vikings, John Plume and the Purple all of a sudden six and four and like pretty clearly gonna make the playoffs. I think in the NFC the Vikings are getting two and a half the Broncos favor in this game. You like Minnesota for the road up set in prime time? You think Denver gets the five hundred.
This is a tough one.
And first of all, I got to say, if it wasn't for Josh Stops, I would have been complaining why.
This game on something that football?
And who would have THOUGHNK that, you know, like we're here saying Josh Jobs story is so awesome that we were okay with something night football with these two teams here. But it's a tough one though, and I keep doubting these vikings. And Kevin O'Connell does deserve Coach of the Year consideration because they keep getting injuries and they keep winning games or five to zero with how Justin Jefferson, and maybe Justin Jefferson plays, you know for that game and he's been practicing. I know we're a little early on the week here, so you know what right there, off of that point, if they get JJ out there and it's Josh Jobs and Kevin O'Connor running the show, and defensively, Brian Flores deserves credit too there. I know they're blitzing like crazy, but you know it's they're producing. They're doing well. They were so much better than a year ago. That was a Brandon Stally defense a year ago. I know Brandon said it was still Brandon Stately year ago. But they're improving. I don't like that they're at the on the road. I do like that le Bron have been improved in both sides actually, and they have a three game winning street. But I will go with the Josh stop stories because I'm kind of late here. I keep picking against them the last couple of weeks.
I don't know what the hell to do with this guy. I really, man, I thought about this game, and I've gone back and forth a hundred times. And in our week eleven like pick worksheet that we have the Golden Scents out every week, I filled it out this morning and I picked Denver and I was like, Eh, really, yeah, I really believe in them. And I gotta tell you the first time I've done this in eleven weeks, I'm gonna flip. I'm gonna pick Minnesota. I'm actually with you, like I. You brought up one thing that I hadn't really thought about. Brian Flores against Russell Wilson. That is going to just be a parade of six man rushes the entire game. I gotta tell you. Like Jerry Judy, for all the hype about him, can he do anything? Can he ever catch a pass? Because hasn't done much. I mean, Cortland Sutton's been okay for them this year. But you look at Denver. Denver is sitting there with Jerry Judy having three hundred and seventy one yards in a touchdown. It is not great. It's not great. Something's at four thirty three hes seven touchdowns. Credit to him, he's been great in the red zone. And then after that, it's a whole bunch of like, Eh, I don't love it, man, I don't feel good. Like if I was gambling, there's no way I'm touching that game. But I believe in O'Connell and if Justin Jefferson's back, Dobbs has played well enough, do you look at him and go, hey, man, maybe he's not a big issue. So I I'm gonna take Minnesota, and I'm gonna have to switch my pick before Gold just starts filing these things in there. But yeah, man, it's it's a weird game. It's a weird. If it was in Minnesota, I would definitely take Minnesota, and I feel like fairly confident about it. The fact that it's not gives me pause. But you've you've talked me into it.
I don't feel good about it, but I guess we agree here.
I just switched my pick on the sheet there before you could lock me in. All right, last one. I'm going to be covering this game for US. I'll be there Monday, night, the Eagles at the Chiefs Super Bowl rematch, maybe a Super Bowl preview, both teams in the one seed right now in their respective conferences. If they did have a Super Bowl rematch this year would be the first time in thirty years if that has happened. The last time it happened was the Bills and the Cowboys, and of course Dallas won them. Both. The Chiefs favored by two and a half points at home. As both teams are coming off the buy, where do you sit with this game with arguably the two best teams in the sport going ahead to head.
Yeah, you know, I'm a little surprised.
You know, they're the favorites, and I know they're at home, but they haven't been playing well. But you know, I guess that's I'm gonna tuck myself into it because I don't feel good or confident about the Chiefs offensively, like they can they with the Eagles, but they're at home, and I like their defense. And you know, Andy Reid, I think he's actually pretty good after a bye week. You might know the numbers there, so I think he.
Only ever lost three times off the bye week.
Yeah, so you know what going on for that I don't feel good about Travis Kelsey touring with Taylor Swift and Argentina and he's going all over. It's like, maybe go home and work with the offense. But who am I to tell? This guy's a you know, superstar, you know, two times Super Bowl champion. But I don't have that good of analysis here. I just feel like Andy Reid on a biweek and the Chiefs being at home, they'll find the way. It will be maybe an ugly game, but you know the Eagles tend to play ugly sometimes, So give me the Chiefs at home.
It's a funny game because they're the two, like I mean, by any metrics hero I want to go by. At this point, they're the best teams in their conferences, and both sets of fan bases are like, I don't know, we're not playing that good, and yet you got Philly at eight and one, the Chiefs are seven to two, and every other team in the league would trade spots with those teams, and you have both fan bases like yeah, yeah, I don't know. You know, the Eagles don't feel great about their defense and their passing defense, then the Chiefs don't feel great about their passing offense, and yet you'll get the numbers and you're like, yeah, well they're probably the Super Bowl favorites right now. To me, this game, we saw this game February, and now obviously you know some different personnel or anything else, But I still believe then and now the same thing. This game comes down to who wins up front. The Eagles have to win up front to beat in this game, because if the Chiefs can win up front, then I think it opens up everything that the Chiefs want to do. They were going run the ball well like they did against the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and if Mahomes has time in the pocket against that secondary, he's going to throw the ball. The one thing that is a major problem in this game for Philly, well it's kind of a one A, one B thing and it was a problem in the Super Bowl for them. They're very predictable in the way they played defensively. It's not necessarily that they're bad at it, but they're just predictable. You know what they're gonna come out and they're gonna do. And second is their coverage linebackers do not exist. They cannot cover with the linebackers and so Travis Kelcey is going to just go all over the place, and you're either forced to guard him with a corner, which is a size disadvantage, or you're forced to commit multiple guys to him, and now all of a sudden, it opens up other things. I think this is going to be a very good football game. If it was in Philadelphia, I would take Philadelphia. It is in Kansas City, so I'll take Kansas City. I think it's a field goal game. Either team can win. Big thing for me is the line play. And then on the chief side of things, you can't keep turning the ball over. It has been a huge problem for them. They've only had one game this year they have not turned the ball over in It was in Minnesota. If they don't turn the ball over and they just played even it a stalemate up front, I think they'll win. But if Philly can cause a turnover or two and they can win up front, then I think I like Philly. But I am fascinated to watch the Eagles receivers going against the Chiefs passing defense. Chiefs are second in the league defensively right now in both passing yardage against total yardage against. I mean they are ectually the fourth in yardage against, second passing yards and second points. I believe it is so they have been spectacular defensively. Trent McDuffie, Ilugarius need DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, No Dallas Goddard in this game, which is another little tipping point for me. If you have him, you can't quite pour as many resources as you as you normally would on teach rechievers. Now you can, you know, So I think it changes things. Give me the Chiefs in a game that I think genuinely is gonna go right to the wire twenty I don't know, twenty four to twenty one, you know, I can even see it being like twenty four to twenty three something like that. And it's an excellent game. And for the record, I do think it is a Super Bowl preview. So the all the rest of you guys who all had to do a midchees and picks everyone, he has the Bengals win the Super Bowl. So I am the brave soul who took the team that's won two out of the last four. I'm that guy who was like, I'll go out on that limb. I'll take the team that's there. All the time look at me.
You know, for a second, I'm like, Wow, why did I stick with the forty nine Ers? I should have gone with the Eagles. And then I'm like, oh, the forty nine Ers crustal Jaguars and the Bengals lose. I'm like, why did it go with the Bengals. I can't make up my boney.
Into the NFL. Yeah, yeah, you point twice things change, all right before we get going What what do you got going on?
Yeah?
So, like I mentioned at the top of the show, I'm going to be flying out to Oklahoma on Wednesday, and I've never been to Oklahoma, and being from California, people tend to make jokes about Oklahoma. And you know, I don't know how many Mexicans are out there, but hopefully it's a very diverse and fun and the weird thing too, man Like, I'm like, it's not like an Oklahoma city or Tosa. It's like in the middle of nowhere, Oklahoma. So people tell me I should be fine, we should be okay, but yeah, it's an hour away from from the city, and you know what, maybe I'm looking forward to an outdoor experience and actually having like a real fall weather where the leaves change. I don't get that out here in LA. So I'm embracing it. But it's gonna be kind of maybe a culture shock for a bit. But then again, it's maybe I'm just overthinking it.
No, it's probably gonna be a culture shock. I'm guessing Oklahoma. In the middle of nowhere in Oklahoma, with all due respect to the Oklahoma's out there, I'm thinking that's a little bit different than LA. For you, is it? What is your family family wedding?
So my good friend from college, you know, he's the Mexican descent, and his lovely fiance who's white, she's from Oklahoma, and yeah, they're gonna have the wedding over there. So yeah, I don't want to be that guy. I don't even saw that video from the the LA guy who went to New York asking him for a scoop bagel gluten free bagel, and the guy told him get the hell out of here. Yeah, I don't want to be that guy.
In Oklahoma, but it should be interesting.
Yeah, it's probably didn't pummel that guy in New York. Dude, I have that. So I have nothing going on, so I'll kind of duffted all off that I have that culture. Shock. Look, I live outside Chicago these days. I lived in Chicago for a handful of years before my wife and I decided to start a family and move back to her hometown. So like forty minuts outside the city. But I grew up first twenty basically six years of my life in New York. And every time that I go on these like these, you know, the training camp tour this summer, or I've gone I've covered a couple of Chief games for US. So I drive out the Arrowhead and I drive all the way through Iowa, and man, it is every time I do it, there's nothing but feels like literally when you get to the border of Iowa, the sciences, Welcome to Iowa. Fields of opportunities, and like there's a part of me that lasts and there's also a part of me that dies inside because I know, I've got a good four hours of westbound and down, baby, and you're on I eighty and they just hype up this it's the world's largest truck stop. Like great, that's the best thing I always got to offer me that, and it shut down Bennegan's and it's just you're like, man, I grew up into a small town New York, but I only grew up like an hour and a half outside the city, so we went down there all the time. I just I can't get used to it. I can't use to driving and there it's just nothing but these massive like wind turbine, your windmills, and the only thing that sustained me on those trips, I just keep thinking to myself, like every minute you drive, you're that much closer to barbecue. Just keep going. And then I get there and I eat until I'm in physical pain because I know I'm not gonna get back there for however long algo with the Chiefs. Who knows probably be back there for a playoff game or two is we'll travel for the playoffs. But yeah, man, good.
Luck in Oklahoma, thank you.
I've never visited the Great State of Oklahoma. I would imagine it's like when I go to the Great State of Alabama and it's just you get there and the people are really nice and friendly. But like I remember the first time with a mobile for the Senior Bowl, and I'm thinking, like that's a city, right, Like Okay, I literally drove past mobile I was driving, and I'm like, and I'm looking at my GPS, it's like six miles or whatever. And I was listening to some song kind of lost it, and all of a sudden I'm looking. I'm like, man, where the hell's the city? Like? And then like a GPS like you to make a U turn? I missed it. The highest building in Mobile is a hotel, Like I was what happened? And I enjoyed going to Mobile. I'm not I'm not dunking on Mobile, but it's just so funny. You go there and you think, like in your head, East Coast, Oh a city, No, No, like it's It's just it's like two streets and a stadium and that's it. Okay, that's cool.
Yeah, never been to Alabama either, And I'm guessing in Oklahoma would be wise for me just to tell people, Yeah, Baker Mayfield playing well, right, playing well in Tampa.
Great love him, got got his autograph.
Yeah, a huge fan. Yeah, Oklahoma go shooting.
Yeah, don't go in there and give me a hook them horns Boomer Sooner baby love it. Huge fan. Wallpapered my house with pictures of Billy Simms. All right, Uh, with that being said, thank you so much, for listening. Uh, please subscribe, leave a rating, leave a review, or give us a review if you wouldn't mind, and leave a rating with a question in your review if you want, well answer it here right on the podcast. If there's a little bit of a delay to that, we apologize. No somebody mentioned bick Hey, I ask you a question. It's not populated yet. It will Apple. They are the ones to get mad at.
We're waiting for that.
But thank you so much for listening. Hopefully your team has a great week eleven. Uh and if you're a Bills fan, it can't get worse. So here's the finding out how much Joe Brady can do instead of endorsy. But for Gilberto Manzano, I am mad verdram. Thank you so much for listening, and we will talk to you again next week.
