Hello, and welcome to the mm QB Monday Morning NFL Podcast. I am Gary Grambling. He is Andy. Noit. We have two division previews left to go and then no more until like, but we are. We are doing an f C North this week. Uh, I don't know that's I think that's the extent to my intro. Annie. I'm just flat out stating the division we're gonna do, and then we're gonna do it. It's very good. You know, the a f C North Baltimore one and handily last year. And I've been going through and just kind of reviewing all these teams from last season. The film notes. That's where I do this time of year, and I'm looking at the Ravens. One thing I do is just kind of check where everybody ranked on everything. That doesn't tell you the whole story, certainly, but Baltimore's offense ranked first and points, second in yards, and their defense was third in points and fourth in yards. I I'm sure it's happened before. It's probably happened every seven years. It's not often though, a team ranking top basically top three and both on both sides of the ball. You know, I was actually, uh, on top of that I was looking at Football Outsiders pressure metrics. Let me bring this up because I want to make sure I have it exactly right here. But uh, you know, you look at this um, this Raves roster and it's like, okay, well there's not there's not a ton of talent on the edge. They don't have Khalil Mack here. Uh they ranked the first. That's that's the top. Number one is the ice you can be in uh in adjusted pressure. So uh yeah, they got it. They got it done last year. Well, if I recocause reading the Football Outsiders all when I has become part of my review processes, well I think Aaron Shots and those guys do a tremendous job. So I read what you read. If I recalled Baltimore was like middle of the pack in sacks or actual bottom line productivity on the on the pressure the pass rush. But they got pressure so often. Their past defense ranks very high. One thing you see often with teams that blitz a lot, because Baltimore led the league in blitzes and they were first the number of five and six man rushes. They were thirty second and number of four man rushes, so they pretty much blitz or bring designer pressure more than they don't, or it's about and even split. When you get defenses like that, a lot of times you get a lot of pressure and a lot of incompletions, not necessarily sacks so much. And that that was the old Rex Ryan philosopher. Remember those Jets defenses when then when the Jets were going to the a f C Championship, Derrol Reeves was at his height, they didn't have blazing, amazing sack numbers, but their opponents completion percentages always around fifties. So I want to say it was below that at times because a blitz the idea of the blitz more than to generate the sack. You'll take that that's the best case scenario, but really you're trying to get the quarterback to play fast, and when a quarterback plays fast, he throws the ball fasterest what quarterbacks do. So it's presenting the pressure and rushing the QB and these blitzing defenses, really it's about incompletions more than sacks with the really good ones, which is part of the reason Baltimore has some high level corners as well. You want guys covering one on one against those quick passes. That just adds to the cause. Yeah, they also defensively, if we could just I love that we're just starting the show saying that the fourteen and two team was good last year. Uh, they only had seventeen takeaways in eighteen. Like you mentioned, when you generate that pressure, it's incompletions, it's mistakes by the offense. You generally get a few more takeaways that way too. So they ranked, they ranked tied for twenty second and eighteen, and they moved all the way up to tight for seventh last year. So they yeah, they got some things done. Yeah, there you go. And you know the Marcus Peters trade mid season because he was involved in a few of those takeaways. He's he's become a really good corner. I thought it was a turning point for Baltimore because it was obvious they're committing to Manda man coverage. For years, they've been kind of a fire zone defense where you're playing zone coverage but only six guys back in coverage instead of the usual seven. You don't see fire zone a whole lot because zones become bigger if there are only six defenders instead of seven. So what naturally happens with with fire zones because they have become more popular in the league in the last few years, but they take on the form of Manda man coverage. If you have only six guys back in zone, the zones are so big, so you might as well match up to the guy who comes into your zone, because otherwise there's just too much space for the offense to use. So what Baltimore has done is basically Transmorgify into this man to man defense. They start with fire zone, they do a lot of unique and unusual matchup designs from it, and they realize, our corners are great, that's the strength of our team. Let's just keep it a little simpler on ourselves and play straight man coverage. And I didn't think Peters would fit their style play to be perfectly frank, I didn't think he was a He's not the most disciplined cornerback in terms of fundamentals. He's really much kind of a street baller type of field player. He's not. It's not Kyle Fuller of the Bears, whose teach tape technique every snap um And so I didn't know if Peters would do well in a scheme that asked him to play a lot of straight man like that are certainly match up zone man coverages because he likes to have his eyes on the QB. But I was wrong. I was, and I would love to know exactly how they worked with him midseason. Marcus Peters was phenomenal for them last year. So when you're looking at that defense, and we'll start with that side of the ball, we already did start. We'll just continue well into the show here. You're you're trying to bring this back to the intro. I took the show and just moved. You say you didn't have an intro, So all right, I know I brought this on myself. So if you look at this events, look, they fortified the defensive line, that bringing Klais Campbell, they bring in Derek Wolfe. The linebackers you look at, it's going to be the top three on the depth chart are all new guys, two rookies. You got the first round Pickpatrick Queen that they're around, pick Moolle Harrison, LJ Fort, a free agent they brought in, is probably the number three guy at this point. But uh, in your mind, how problematic is it to have uh new and young linebackers in this wing Martindale defense. Is this something to worry about? It gets your attention because there is some demands on the linebackers. You have to be able to do a lot of things besides play the run. And you know that's a fairly standard approach from team to team. Your run gaps are kind of your run gaps. And I think these guys will do very well because Derrick Wolf Brandon Williams the only returning every down player pretty much, and then Clais Campbell that might be the best three man run stopping tandem in the NFL. That's they're gonna work great for what Baltimore does. So these linebackers will have some freedom with playing the run. I think they'll They'll be clean of blockers pretty often. So when you get into the past defensive part of it, when you're a blitz oriented team and you're built on disguises and do still do fire zone, even though you're doing more man coverage, you're still gonna play your fires on stuff. Now you have linebackers that have to be able to rush and drop into coverage, and their rush is not just hey, go get the quarterback. Baltimore's rushes on blitzes are highly scheme. You start out in one gap, but you blitz to the other gap. Other guys are criss crossing. There's a lot to read there, so it's a tall order for these rookies. Now, I don't know if I've said on this podcast or not. I am I'm a big, big fan of Baltimore's linebacker coach, Mike McDonald. And you know the defensive coordinator, wink of Martindale used to be the linebackers coach, and I do think that matters sometimes that Martindale is gonna understand how to help his rookie linebackers more than another defensive coordinator might. So you have that going for you. Patrick Queen's a first round pick, obviously, they feel he's very talented. Talent means something in the NFL. I don't know. Do you know much about Malik Harrison. I don't remember what the book on him is, the out of Ohio State third round pick. Yeah, he's probably a guy who doesn't stay on the field in passing situations. He's a thumper. Yeah, yes, very much so, which is fine because Baltimore only put last season, they only put one linebacker on the field. They played a ton of dime defense, so they they'll put a third safety out there. And I'm looking at who they're safety there, because Chuck Clark's now the starter. Now that uh that Tony Jefferson's off the team, and Clark became the starter last year when Jefferson got hurt. But if you want to know who that third safety is, it's either gonna be Anthony Levine or Deshaan Elliott, who was looking pretty good before he got hurt last year. That third safety basically plays linebacker, is what I'm getting at that guy, And and sometimes Clark becomes a linebacker in this scenario. But they're gonna play dime, put a safety linebacker, more speed on the field, coverage flexibility, all that stuff, so they don't need a ton of of of linebacking depth. And if they do have to go to somebody, you know l J fort quietly Gary. He's been a really good, solid backup linebacker in the NFL for a long not a long time, but the last several years he was He's been a good player for the Steelers and then last season Philadelphia and Baltimore. Let's talk offenses. Eide the ball. I'll just leave it very very vague in general here for you, Andy, is there any real concern about this offense uh being sustainable going forward? Yes and no. The yes part and that I don't think you can count on defense is being caught as off guard and flat footed against your run designs as they were a year ago. One thing that was interesting with Baltimore and it's it was one of the greatest running games of all times. Statistically it was the greatest of all time. So do not take this at all as a significant negative. But you did notice they were much It felt like they were more effective early in games in latent games. Sometimes with their scheming. Baltimore puts a lot of moving pieces in front of you, a lot of pull blockers, a lot of motion. I think sevent their their run plays had some kind of motion at the snap. So not only are you shifting and moving guys, but when the balls being snapped, you're doing that. That's extremely difficult to deal with on run plays because it changes everyone's gap assignment on the fly. And then of course the guy holding the ball and orchestrating all of this once the ball snap is Lamar Jackson, and that presents a lot of problems as well, so it's still gonna be a top three running game no matter what um. Can you count on it getting two hundred and six yards a game like it did a year ago. I don't know if any team should go into a season relying on that, So then the question is a right, well, what about the passing game and where does that stand. One thing I really have I like a lot about Lamar Jackson Gary is that he's a quarterback first. If anybody could get away with being just a run oriented, mobile guy, you think it'd be him. He's always been able to run away from people. Even now that he's in the NFL, he can run away from people. It's remarkable he's developed as much discipline as he has to remain a passer because their passing game is extremely well designed as well, especially when they get into the high red zone area, and Jackson had a ton of TVs from the pocket last year. He does not break himself down and scramble very much. He needs to get a little bit quicker and spotted at reading the field, which is to be expected for a guy of his age, and I think he's ahead of where most guys would be in their their careers if they were playing as much as he's played. So there's there's optimism for their passing game being better than it was a year ago. One thing that gives me concerned is Hayden Hurst was not a difference maker in and of himself, but most defense has treated him as their number one tight end, even though Mark Andrews is probably the guy we all would agree as their most they're their best receiving tight and certainly Hurst Hurst through a lot of unique attention and Baltimore is able to throw the ball out of two tight end and especially three tight end formations because of herst they they're down that guy. So now they don't have the same kind of tight end depth as last year. They'll have to ask more of their wide receivers, which means a little bit less creative in some spots in your passing game. Let's let's move on to the Pittsburgh Steelers and uh, well, since since I didn't do the intro this week, I shouldn't remind everyone we are not going by the order of our projected standings here. We are going by order of last year's standings. We will, however, have projections at the end of this show. So Steelers for second place last year, just missed the playoffs. Obviously, had there been a seventh seed in the league, it would have been the Pittsburgh Steelers. But let's start on the offense side of the ball with them. I mean, look at that. The receivers were not good last season, Judice in the Shoester slid back a little bit. Obviously it was the first year in forever without Antonio Brown there, but also quarterback problems. Now you've got Ben Roethlisberger back. Do they have to change how they approached this offensively as far as the passing game goes, they have to to do something to help these guys out to get open or I think Roethlisberger and it's hard of arts, even though I've argued for years he's the most evolved quarterback of our time because he started out as as just a true sandlot type of QB and he's evolved into this pretty shrewd pre snap guy. That's what they like to spread out into empty and let him read the defense before the snap and and make quick decisions right after it. As a as a result, you know that's he's capable of doing that. I still think at his core and his in his bone marrow. He is that sandlot QB still and so that will help the receivers. I do think the receivers need to do more to help him. And if they're not capable of that, those wide receivers cannot do that. And there's that's a genuine question. You know, James Washington, I know we like him more than we did this time a year ago. Jury is still out. Deonte Johnson, same story. Chase Claypool's a pretty polarizing second round rookie receiver for for draft evaluations coming out. If those guys struggle and they did for more, they have more than they haven't, then you've got to do more with the scheme to help get them open. You can't line up and have guys play on an island. If they can't win on an island, your wide receivers have to be able to win. If they don't, the scheme has to help you. And I think bridging those two things is something Pittsburgh has been hot and cold with in the last few years. Roethlisberger lets him get away with that. When they went to the backup qbs, that got exposed a little bit more. It's still something to correct and address. You you want to be your best version of yourselves and to just spin the ball out there and hope Big Ben makes a play. That's That's that can't be enough. That's not especially if Antonio Brown and and Levy on Bell are no longer here. Yeah. Uh, defense side of the ball. Defense obviously is what carried them a year ago. Did they do anything different? What change when Nicko Fitzpatrick came in? Besides the fact that they just added a better players the secondary, Well, they added a better player in a spot that has a lot of trickle down effect because when when you're better at safety is more instinctive. He has a chance to react to more plays and other than other safeties had been for them, And I think that does make other guys around him that much better and offenses are more aware of the free safety. So that's you know, that's that's a little bit of a factor there. Um, there was this idea that Fitzpatrick was very interchangeable. Initially, he played down in the box, he played back deep. He's that linebacker we heard about that. That's the nature of the scheme. Every safety does that in almost every scheme in the NFL, and especially one like Pittsburgh's where they're they're similar to Baltimore and that it's going to be fire zone pressure as they're kind of their third down foundation. They don't just line up and keep it in front of them. They they are attack minded very often as a defense. Um so having a safety like that just makes you that much better and all those things. The guys, there were two guys get that I thought were really important for how this secondary evolved. One is Terrell Edmunds got better. He's room to grow still, but he became he took a nice step forward in year two. And the guy had that no one talked about was Joe Hayden. Last year, Joe Hayden to me was one of the ten best cornerbacks in the NFL. And I I don't know what his advanced stats say, I want to say they did not reflect that. I've watched every snap he's he's taken. I've watched all the big players. I've talked to other coaches that that faced him. Joe Hayden had a phenomenal scene. It's not a shutdown perfect corner, but he was a big play corner a year ago and having Hayden improved with Fitzpatrick. That's that's those are two all pro level talents, almost certainly Pro Bowl level talents. Yeah. I mean Hayden has been sort of overlooked for quite a while. Now. I feel like he's he's never really in that conversation, uh for for being an All Pro guy or anything like that. Second team obviously. I don't know if that affects people's UH thoughts on him, uh the quarterback and group. I don't know, Like you said, Hayden underappreciated, really good player. After that, you just go down the line, you know, Mike Hilton, effective Blitzer out of the out of the slot. Steven Nelson, I mean, Steven Nelson is one of those guys is where it's it feels like you can be a little bit feast or famine with the streaky uh number two cornerback uh And he was streaky in the right direction a lot last year. Though he was better than he was as a chief I was, which would make me wrong about him. I thought that'd be a problem. I didn't like him very much in Kansas City, to be honest, but he played very well outside for them vertical routes on the at the right corner spot is where Nelson's run hot and cold. He was better last year there. Yeah, yeah, And and look they generate pressure here in Pittsburgh. That was not always the case in Kansas City when he was there, So maybe that gives him a little boost as well. One other thing you mentioned Mike Hilton. The Steelers are one of the few teams that rotate at the slot cornerback position. I don't. In fact, they might be the only team that does that. Mike Hilton plays um possible run situation. So if you're an eleven personnel, three wide receivers, it's first and ten. The Steelers gonna have Mike Hilton on the field because they want his run defense in there. And some of those slot blitz as you bring those can serve as good run defending tactics, depending on the nature the opponent's run game. So you blitz in your rush and five and I guess you're being aggressive, but it's it's a form of run defense as much as anything. And obvious past situations or about ten or twelve snaps a game where it's a third and long type of deal. They were playing Cameron Sutton in the slot quite a bit last year. That's surprised at me Hilton's I think Hilton's a very good player. Obviously, they feel Sutton is the better coverage guy. But just something to note about the Steelers is they're one of the few teams that rotate at that slot cornerback position. They want to be a nickel defense where they have two linebackers on the field, but they just haven't quite consistently had two linebackers available. And I think I'm looking now, is Mark Barron no longer on their rosters? He not here this year? Am I missing something? Now? He is? He is elsewhere possible? Nowhere? At this point, I'm gonna google Mark Barren because Mark Barron was brought in to be that that number two hover linebacker, so he actually rotates in as well as part of the sub packages. But if Mark Baron is not here and he is a free agent right now, that tells me they're gonna They're probably gonna play Diame again. Bush will be the every down linebacker for him, and he's ready for that role, Devon bush Um. But they don't have a lot of linebacking depth otherwise. All right, let's let's head out to Cleveland, and we're gonna get to Baker Mayfield and all that in just a minute here. But I don't know if we've talked about the Browns defense throughout this entire offseason here, Andy, uh, And then we probably should at some point because they're gonna they're gonna play like half of these games for the Browns. So new defensive coordinator Joe Woods comes in. How is this group gonna look different than it did a year ago? Well, Joe Woods his background somewhat diverse. Most recently he's of the forty niners. So that that Cover three, fast paced kind of defense, and I do I do think Cleveland there, their d line is not as good as San Francisco's was last year, but I do think they've got enough juice to play that way. If you're gonna play Cover three and just be a speed oriented defense, your four man rush has to get pressure. They feel Miles Garrett can do that a very violent edge rusher. They probably need a number two edge rusher. Olivier Vernon still a phenomenal run defender. I don't know if he's quite an edge bender. But then inside Larry Argan, Joe and Sheldon Richardson, that's the that's a plus pass rush inside. Adrian Claybourne, your best guy off the bench, since not a dazzling pass rush. But I think it is just good enough to let them at least try to play the way they want to play and and do some of those forty Niner type zone coverages if that's what they indeed do. The conserve with the defenses that their linebacker situation is very up in the air, and now Mack Wilson looks like he's going to be out for a long time. He was their only returning starter and he and there was questions about him still coming in. He's a young guy, is not a natural cover guy. Necessarily, you can't play cover three. If your linebackers can't run and cover, it's not going to work. So the other guy they have that's running this defense or pass game coordinator on defense is Jeff Howard, who came over from Minnesota with Kevin Stefanski. So Howard's background is in that Mike Zimmer stuff. They'll split safety looks cover four basically, which a lot of times the way in fact, the way the Niners played cover three. It's not super dissimilar from cover four. Suffice it to say, the safeties play low and aggressive and they have vertical defense responsibilities kind of near this seems your corners have to cover one on one outside a lot of the time. So it's gonna be Cover three or Cover four Gary, one of those two. I've asked people with the Browns, and you know, they won't tell me. They're not gonna They refused to tell me what they're going to do this year, which wounded me a little bit if I'm being perfectly Yeah, very rude, very rude. But you know they probably knew we hadn't done the a f C North podcast yet. You never know. Um, I'll be eager to see what they do. And my guess is they're not married to either approach quite yet because they've got questions certainly at linebacker, like we touched on, they're not very deep at safety, so they have questions. It's safety as well, Um, so it might that might dictate what they wind up doing. Yeah, it's a it's a it's a thin group there in Cleveland. We'll see how they hold up this year. But often side of the ball, and you know you've mentioned a couple of times Baker Mayfield wasn't really seeing the field, but the same kind of clarity last year as he did as a rookie. What can Kevin Stefanski do to sort of make this a little bit, a little bit better, a little bit easier on Baker Well. Statistically, there was an enormous difference in Mayfield when he was passing out of play action first, when he was passing just dropped back, which is true of a lot of team. A lot of teams are gonna have better play action numbers because it's kind of the nature of the play action game a little bit. Those passes come on rundown, so predictable defense. Predictable defense means you're gonna be able to kind of attack down field a little more because you know where the safeties will be. So about that's just the nature of things. But I do think Mayfield's one of those qbs who probably is better in a balanced, run oriented system, even though he came out of Oklahoma and that spread offense and he slung the ball all over the field, and look, he can probably do that at times in the NFL, but where he's at his best, he's probably one of those guys that needs to have a little bit of discipline and instilled upon him. He probably need to regulate him. I'm not at all saying he's a reckless player. He was at times last year. He needs to be better in that sense. I think he's a good quarterback, but he probably needs some discipline instilled up on him, which is what you do with the system. You don't just tell him to take care of the ball. You put him in situations and call plays that make that a little more conducive and natural. So Stefanski ran a ton of play action in Minnesota. They were one of the only teams that really played out a base personnel more than eleven personnel, so two backs or two tight ends on the field, sometimes both. And it's very clear Gary that's what they're going to try to do in Cleveland, because they didn't really go after any wide receive years of note this offseason. They did, however, signed Andy Janovich at fullback from Denver, and they you know, Kareem Hunt is back along with Nick Chubbs. We have two backs there. And then they paid big money, really big money in my opinion, for Austin Hooper, and they did not trade David and Joko, even though He fits every form of the profile of a guy that usually gets traded based on how things have gone so far. They kept him around because they need him to be Irv Smith this year. So they're gonna play like Stefanski did with Minnesota and have a simpler offense that starts with the run game, and I think Mayfield will be better for that. All right, let's go to the Bengals. Uh rookie quarterback short weird offseason. Uh, you know, you look back at the last time we had sort of a truncated offseason here training camp session for these guys, and uh, that was Cam Newton's rookie year. That was Andy Dalton's rookie year. And then you had kind of a mixed bag with the locker gather ponder between those two. But you did see some quarterbacks have success even with the with the weird offseason in because of the CBA negotiations. But the Bengals rookie quarterback weird offseason, I don't know. Is this built for Joe Burrow to have early success? Yeah? Sure, I mean it's I like the system. It's that that Titans slash Niners slash Packers, slash Rams style of offense. Start with the outside zone, kind of that Brown style of offense to a little bit. Start with the run game, make them defend your run game, and then have your past concepts come off of that. So you take some pressure off the QB. When you play that way, Joe Burrow will see some looks that he's seen before. Now, you know, it's still the NFL. It's still an adjustment. You're gonna have to be comfortable playing with your back to the defense at times, turning your back to the defense if you're gonna be a play action offense. I don't know if Burrow, do you know if he did that a lot of L s U. My guess is he probably didn't have to. They were so talented at why receiver. I bet he lined up and shotgun a lot and just read the field. Is that how he played? Yeah? I don't. I don't picture in my mind's eye a whole lot of play action going on with that L s U offense. So, you know, and every young QB is gonna have something to learn. Now, those guys you mentioned in eleven that worked out well, we don't know if that was anything to do with the lockout or not mean Andy Andy Dalton went on to have a solid career, Kim newtonent on to have a nice career, Jake Locker went on to be nothing, and Christian Ponder went on to be nothing. So even when they had off seasons in other years, they weren't any good. So it's I don't know if that you know that I looked up that eleven lockout your gear. I'm gonna pull up my phone as we're doing this because I texted this with someone, but I wanted to see because I do I do think that the lack of practice time means something this year and these teams that have their staffs coming back, that's a big difference. But when I looked into that eleven lockout year, the numbers really didn't bear that out a whole lot the teams that were in fact, if anything, some of the teams with new coaching staffs had better success and some of the the you know, the teams that had been there before. I need to say something while I try to pull up the specifics here on my phone, you need to buy some time. I know. I well, I was hoping you would buy more time because I'm trying to look up l s u s play action rate from last year. Specific they were, they were relatively high. They were um boy, so I'm going off of team rankings dot COM's numbers here. Uh, they were top twenty five and play action rate last year. So all right, there's a there's a thing. So and look, if they're shotgun offense, sometimes that's just the timing of the play. I mean, they probably were a play action offense if that was that's what the numbers say. But there are certain play action concepts, and I don't know if it's more common in college or not, where they're not really running play it really we ought to call it run action. If the QB kind of just gives a token fake handoff to the running back, that's not really play action. It's where your run game. It's where they're the aligneman have to be selling the run play for it to truly be play action in my mind. Okay, so look at how many times Alignment sold those run plays. Can you google that one? Uh, mash up at every place every snap they ran last year? Real quick, I found the stats. So seven new head coaches inn so that year the lockout, so they didn't have these offseason practices just same scenarios this year, five of those seven coaches won more games inleven then the previous year's team. So if I was a new head coach for the Panthers, I won more games with the Panthers in twenty eleven than the twenty ten Panthers. So the teams that hired new coaches got better. Uh, four of them won at least four more games than the previous year's team, which that's a huge significant increase. And then four of the seven new head coaches started three or three or better early in the season. So if we're just reducing this to wins and losses, which is probably oversimplifying, but probably not because at the end of the day, that's what we're doing. It's wins and losses. You know, the teams that had do coaches last year or last time we saw a season with no off season, it really didn't reflect negatively in the win loss record. Yeah, I will say, if I could just call you out, which reasons I love to do, I would think most new coaches have a better record than the previous year because the guy got fired for having a bad record, most greatly. So the better stat then would be what percent of coaches in their first year have a better record than the previous year's team, and then we have to relate it to that yeah, yeah, which that sounds like a Ryan Taylor project and that day. I don't want to do all that work, but Ryan does do these things. When we mentioned these casually on the podcast, we can I feel like we're kind of manipulating the poor guy. I was just gonna say, we've already taken a couple of breaks during the segment. I think, uh, per apps, we just take like a twenty minute break, just run some some dead air for a while, and we can look it up ourselves. What we So if Ryan does indeed do this to save him some time, why don't we say in the two thousand's, just look at all the head coaches in the two thousands even then, and it's maybe since, okay, save him a little time that gives us because that reflects more of a current era for football. How do how does changing your head coach typically? What can you expect for in terms of wins and losses? Because yes, you change head coaches if you don't have enough winds, So it's easy to improve the next year in your wind total in that sense, but there are a lot of teams that also just hit the reset button altogether. Carolina. How many games Carolina win last year? Carolina Panthers not. They'll probably win fewer this year though, because they you know they are they really tore it down. Yeah, exactly. Now I'm curious or five? They were five and eleven? Okay, we watch all these things, and I remember all this stuff, all these teams, and you don't. I don't think to remember the actual wins and lost I look up records so many times because you don't think about teams with their bottom line win and loss records when you start getting in the weeds with them. Five and eleven confirmed, Yeah, I mean five and eleven. Five and eleven would be a very successful season for Carolina right now with where they are. God, the two of us were just terrible researchers. How many games do the Lions win? The only one that they were three twelve and one. I know that for a fact. I know they were three four and one with Stafford because I was I was campaigning for Matthew Stafford as the sub five MVP of the league. I'm gonna give you one more just to see if I can trip you up. Um, what would you guess Minnesota's record was answered quickly ten and six, but that is just a guess. Yeah, I thought there's would be misleading because I think they were ten and four and then they had a meaningless week seven team games, so really they played more like an eleven and five type of team all year, and eleven six doesn't feel like a big difference, except in some ways it sort of does, because when I hear ten and six, I think wild card team, and eleven and five you kind of instinctively think division winner, even though I don't know if it goes out way very consistently. Yeah, I just say Vikings are a little bit tricky as well, because the Packers, of course won thirteen games last year, as I have been reminded all weeks since, uh since writing a and that not even that negative, uh scattering report on their team, but just sort of pointing out maybe they weren't thirteen win caliber. Maybe that wouldn't have repeated itself if if they replayed that entire season, But uh, yeah, they were thirteen and three, So Vikings could have been Vikings could have been twelve and four and are Packer fans being vicious to you, because I will admit I have never met a disrespectful Packer fan. Is that true? Are you being sarcastic? No, I'm not. I mean I can see what that would sound sarcastic that they has met one. But I've always had great interactions with Packer fans. They are enthusiasts. Wow, that okay, that's fandom. But it's like, you know, let's just call a spade a spade. If you get an email from an Eagles fan or a Raiders fans certainly, or maybe even a Jets fan and it's a negative email, you can expect there's gonna be some some behind that they're gonna pack a punch. I don't think Green Babe is one of those teams. One thing I found about Packers fans is that they they like the Packers. Yeah, and that's and that's a common trade with a lot of teams in their fans. They actually the teams I just mentioned. The fans don't always seem to like the team. That's that's actually a good point. There are some people who, uh just like to be miserable with this stuff. Jets fans, Yeah, alright, Bengals we still have to do the defensive side of the ball here. For the Bengals, Uh, look, they have clearly invested in athleticism at the linebacker position. They have pretty heavily revamped the cornerbacking group that they have. Trey Wayne's in dealing with some injury stuff right now, Are they go and get Mackenzie Alexander to go along with William Jackson? I mean, are they building this more like a lou and a remote defense here or is this just kind of a matter of they just didn't have the talent and now they are. They're just trying to get some sort of you know, uh, baseline league capable guys here. At while linebacker it was they didn't have the talents. I mean I I was almost a little offended that I didn't get a call and a chance to try out for their linebacker unit last season. It's so there was a plenty, there was plenty of room to get better there. Um quarterback maybe a little bit of a different story. You know, they had some injuries last year. They replaced some guys kind of just a change of an era. Trey Wayne's gear that injury he has, I've heard report said he might not play this year. He's gonna be out for a while. If that's the case, that's a big deal that Trey Wayns was there. Kind of their hallmark acquisition this offseason, and they still have William Jackson, Um, Alexander Mackenzie. Alexander to me is strictly a slot guy, which raises the question, who's your number two corners. Darius Phillips maybe the outside guy, and he's been more of a slot guy too. I want to say, you know, corner is a problem for them. There is zone based defense, um, so that helps, but you know, there their safeties they did saying Von bell I s yeah, and so Sean Williams then got hurt too lately, and the Vaughan bell acquisition becomes more important that Sean. I'm gonna make sure Sean Williams is indeed hurt. You know. It's not a great secondary overall, if we're just being honest, it's it might be better than it was a year ago, and it's going in the right direction. What this team needs is this defensive line to play at a very high level. And this defensive line for several years now, has been given its level of talent it's been a very inconsistent group. Alright. With that, I think it's time for projections, any any final arguments before we move on two projections. Now, it looks like Sean Williams looks like report could be he'll be back before the opener, so training campaign, which is good news. That's that's nice, and they might wind up playing you know, they did play a little more dime as well last year. They've always been a nickel defense, but the different coaching staff now they played some dimes. So I guy like Sewan Williams could be a big deal. Last note on the Bengals in I would be very surprised if Josh Bynes does not wind up becoming their starting linebacker. Maybe they're every down linebacker. He's slated for the second team. Yeah, because Josh Bynes is one of those guys every team signs him and they wind up realizing, Man, for when this guy runs better than we thought he wouldn't. For two, he knows what the hell he's doing out there. He's a smart, disciplined player. He's been a good player everywhere he's gone, and for whatever reason, he's always having to go somewhere else. He's not being brought back Josh Bynes, I, I bet you will be their most stable linebacker, just because he's done that so many times before. If you're a Bengals fan, do you feel good about that? Or is that discouraging? Um? I mean it in a positive I mean in a positive way. I don't mean it in the way like, oh, they're gonna have to fall back on Josh Bynes. I mean it in the way that, yeah, Bynes probably does get on the field of if something negative happens, but he's so stabilizes things. He's so reliable that it's once he's in there, you forgot there was ever a problem to begin with. He doesn't change every He's not going to light the world on fire. He's just going to solve your problems. Now, the projections are you are you I'm picking the Ravens to win this division? Are you also picking the Ravens? No. I got the Bengals because they got Josh buying, and then after the Bengals, I guess I'd probably go, you have to go. You have to project Baltimore one. Still, it's gonna be hard for them to be at the level they were last year. I mean, what were fourteen and two, top three both sides of the ball um. But that doesn't you know, they could fall to twelve and four and still be a Super Bowl contender. So yeah, I'm going I'm going Baltimore one. Who do we have it too? We don't have to agree necessarily, but who's Who's two? I'm going Pittsburgh too. I do want to make this point about Pittsburgh and and you mentioned, you know, does Baltimore fall off? They rank so high. I always look at takeaways year to year and and takeaways, look, they're they're loosely related to pressure. Uh, it's not purely a luck category, but luck does have a lot to do with it. And I actually I did this last year with the Bears, and early in the season I put it out the Bears led the league with thirty six takeaways in eighteen, and they probably couldn't do that again, even though they do have a good group. They fall. They fell all the way to twenty second in the league with nineteen and if you look back our stats inc. Data only goes back to but there's in that span going back to there's never been a team lead the league in takeaways back to back year and In fact, only one team led the league and then finished top five the next year, and that was a course, as we all know, the Giants who tied for fifth after leading in uh sorry, that's eleven Giants tied for fifth after leading uh season. So Giants team won the Super Bowl that year too, they did, so they were the one success story here as far as takeaway consistency. So that's my way of saying Steelers led the league with thirty eight takeaways last year. They are probably going to get a fair amount of takeaways. They're probably not going to get thirty eight. And I feel like they just kind of Boy, if you had that kind of defensive season with their twenty eighteen team, you really had something there. You had you had you had a you know, thirteen win season there. I think the takeaways go away. I think the defense goes from uh, you know, one or two best in the league too, maybe the fifth or sixth best in the league. And I think that's enough that they don't catch Baltimore, even if in Roethlisberger does sort of figure it out with this group of receivers. I think that's fair. I mean I and I know you're not saying this, But I always feel like someone needs to just have throw caution here and say, you know, what they did in twenty nine team for takeaways is not relevant directly. It's totally two separate things. But your point has a lot of history behind it, and it's it's a good one. Is your let's put it, maybe we can agree on it this way. Your plan can't be to win that just to force a lot of turnovers. That can. You can't be reliant on that. You have to That's a turnover is a byproduct of how you play, or it is an effect. But all you can really control is the cause. How do we play? What do we do and trust that the turnovers take care of themselves? Saying what we're gonna force a lot of turnovers. That's almost the equivalent of going in and like, all right, guys, our plan today is to score a lot of touchdowns. That's that doesn't that's not your plan. You have to play at a certain level. I agree with that, yes, so, and any anyone would because it's not like an opinion that we're just stating the logic of it. But it's easy to forget that these you know, you don't want to analyze the results. The results are just the results. The process is good. I think Pittsburgh's process will be excellent this season. We didn't talk about their d line, but it's it's up there. It's one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. Still, we do like their secondary a lot. This has a chance to be one of the I don't know where they'll rank, but this has a chance to be one of the five or six best defenses in the NFL. And I think that's how this team will have to play. I don't think they have an offense that can score thirty a game, or at least they can score thirty on any given game. But I don't think they can score thirty a game week in and week out. That's a big difference. I will say I thought Lamar Jackson's worst game of nineteen was when he went to Pittsburgh. I want to say it was probably like early October last week five. Remember, because I watched the film late late Friday night with my nephew who was in town. And my nephew you kept interjecting about, hey, you know, hey watch this, watch that, and he's he's eleven years he's twelve years old, and he kept saying, watching a hold on positive, watched number eight, Watch number eight. I kept saying, you mean the court, Lamar Jackson, the quarterback. So yeah, anyway, it was it was week five. It was in October. Week five. We've just gotten back from Denny's oh Man well that they didn't get a second shot because he did not play the Week seventeen game, which was meaningless for the Ravens. It was RG three in that game, so Ravens still won that contest and yellers and needed that game. Jackson played poorly against Pittsburgh that You're right, it was his the last time he threw interceptions. He had three in that game. I want to say they were all his fault to sound degree. There was one that was a tremendous player, I forget who made it. But he didn't have any any turnovers hardly at all after that the rest of the way. And if you'd said after that game that they this Jackson's gonna win m VP, that would have that would not have made sense at the time. Correct. Yeah, Look, by mid season, he was not the league MVP. He was having a really good season, and then he just took off in the second half and and very rightfully ran away with the award. Uh yeah, I have I have pictured in front of Cleveland. I don't know. I I don't trust that Cleveland defense. Uh. And I don't trust that the offense is gonna completely take off. And and uh I was just gonna say, get back to the level they played at in team, but that wasn't wasn't that high level. Yeah, they're not going in this year saying that's that's our you know, let's climb that team mountain. It's a team in transition. It's a team in transition for sure. And I just hope that, I mean, honestly, you hope ownership understands that in this case because it's it's been a pretty quick trigger finger with the Haslum family and changing leadership with that organization, changing coaches, because the expectation and kind of the natural sentiment is going to be new young offensive coach, Kevin Stefanski wilds he Matt Maggie, as he Sean McVeigh, is he Matt Lafleur, and it's Baker Mayfield. We have high expectations for Mayfield because he's on TV on these commercials. Now, it's a team in transition. If they go mine at seven, that's a tremendous step forward, and I think that's gonna be a tall order for them, even though I do think they're doing it the right way and they're going in the right direction as a franchise. Non Lamar Jackson's who's your who are you circling for the m v P race? Well, um, I mean, could Roethlisberger get in the conversation? He has to? He'll be the Philip Rivers deal where he's gonna get labeled comeback player of the Year. Again, that's probably true. Yeah, and there have been He's never won an m v P, right, correct? Has he come close? I mean there's been years that I'm sure he's belonged in the discussion. I don't remember him ever being really heavily in this in the discussion. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a a Russell Wilson type thing where he's never gotten a vote for it. Yeah, it's right, Russell Wilson has not. Isn't that funny? I mean not not funny, but like in that just bizarre. Yeah, you could win a lot of bar bets on that trivia question with the Russell Wilson won. Well, not anymore because now that now that we've said it, it has reached a threshold that everyone knows it. But uh, yeah, I mean it's just, you know, it's about when did you have your best season? Oh you had your best season when uh, you know, whenever Tom Brady through fifty touchdowns and and the Patriots win sixteen and oh well, no one's gonna vote for you. There's only that. That's the thing with the the NFL MVP voting. Everyone votes for one guy. It's not like the uh, you know, the MLB style where you feel out your ballot with ten. I know our friend Peter King, I think is trying to get that changed. I know he has been in his columns. Yeah, I mean, it's it would be neat. I think they should change it, But I guess I really don't feel that strongly about it anyway. Okay, Um, so not on Lamar Jackson m v P. Uh may feel like obviously if they do well, he'll be in that conversation. But let's go non quarterback. Who would be the non quarterback? I mean, are you talking about like t J. Watt, Miles Garrett? I would probably take what before I took Garrett in that Uh, in that race. If if t J's brother didn't get it any of those years, t J is not gonna get it, not because he wouldn't deserve it, but voters aren't gonna give it to a defensive guy. Uh. That's that's really I mean, O'Dell is probably the best non quarterback offensive player in the division. Yep, that's probably correct. Um, you know one thing, it's not gonna get it. But kind of along the lines of the Mitch Morse conversas, who gets the Mitch Morse Award for the North? Um, Well, Ronnie's I want to say, Ronnie Stanley is is an excellent tackle. So it's Orlando Brown at right tackle. By the way, now, I don't think the nature of Baltimore scheme is not as dependent on the old line as other schemes, because so much of what Baltimore does with the run game hinges on misdirection deception, making defenders be wrong when they're covering air. So to speak, no run play works if your left tackle doesn't block this guy. They also, let's not take this too far, um, So I'm not sure you could say that Stanley is an m v P for lineman caliber type deal. But uh, the point I want to make is Baltimore often, even though they're this team that puts all these tight ends on the field, all these fullbacks, you'd think they'd have a passing game that derives from that, and they kind of do, but they often block with five. In the passing game, they get five eligibles out and routes, which is not at all how you would guess a team like. There's plays and I don't know if the numbers reflect that. I know. All I know is there are every week there were significant snaps where it was very clear that that they were past protecting with just five and they felt fine doing that. That's a very good commentary on Ronnie Stanley and Orlando Brown at alphensive tackle. You know, Joe Burrow is eighty to one, only eight to one. That's that's for for rookie quarterback. I mean, what was the last time a rookie won the MVP. I don't think ever, right in the NFL? Is that true? Each year? Oh Fred Lynn, did each row one did each rope get en off bunts and get on base to win the m v P. One year each arrow one it right? Are you? Are you not at an each year? Ow? Guy, No, I am. I just remember at the time when he wanted he was just uh if each year, oh, maybe I am exposing my baseball ignorance here, and if I am, I guess the baseball fans are welcome to tell me. There's an unwritten rule not to expose your baseball ignorance with baseball fans. I guess. But each year, Oh, if he were a quarterback, he would have run us a spread offense, and his average yards per complete you had been like four completion percentage seventy five think and dunk offense. It's fair, I'll get you, all right. But but then he also like played a good linebacker on the other side. I mean, that's that's a you know, that's a sport unlike these other sports. That's a sport. You gotta play offense and defense every every so often you do. Yeah, yeah, I honestly, I mean, can I'll say I was. I've been wanting to tweet this, but it never comes out right in a tweet, This whole baseball and written rules thing, which has kind of been a conversation because I guess who was the guy that hit a three over Tattoos junior. Yeah, not allowed to swing if it's three. Oh, you know this doesn't happen in other sports. The differences in baseball, there's so much idle time and standing around and just think of how you behave anytime you got just time on your hand. You just stand there thinking about stuff and out of I don't want to say it's out of boredom, because I'm sure the guys are more dialed in than that, but there's plenty of time to just kind of sit around and think up stuff. And when you think of stuff, it's much easier to find slights and feel like you've been rubbed the wrong way. You know, Football doesn't have this garbage of unwritten rules very much because you're onto the next play doing something. I think that's I think that's fair. Uh. Whenever I think of unwritten rules in baseball, the closest thing I can think of in the NFL is you remember the old Shiano rushing the kneel down? I do that was That's been highly debated within the league. Still some coaches feel like, yeah, you don't do that. I was fine with that because if you forced to fumble on the exchange, which is I think what they were trying to do. They were diving at the A gaps. They not not every guy if I have to go back and look at that play, but not every guy was diving at his offensive alignment. The guys in the A gaps were because that's the only chance you'd have it going and getting the ball. I could be wrong, there were there are coaches in the league that hated that. I will say, uh, in response to that thing that happened seven years ago, what the NFL has to do kind of like you know how MLB does intentional walks. They don't make you throw You might not know this. They don't make you throw four pitches to intentionally walk a guy. You can just say you're intentionally walking a guy. And that's a recent rule adjustment. Yep. You can skip the theatrics, the excitement of the of the intentional walk. The NFL should just to avoid any of that, and frankly, to avoid the just dullness of kneel down, wait forty seconds, kneel down, just say the offense should have a chance to basically just say we're not gonna run a play, run forty seconds off the clock. We're not gonna run and play. The other team has time out, so they can use the time out to uh to prevent that forty second run off. But just just do it that way speed up games for sure. You'd only be able to do in the fourth quarter, because, um, I think offensive wants a chance to fake the kneel down in the first half. I think you can do it either way. Well no, but if you're an offense, what would be your what what would be your motivation for that? You might not need bone of did to do in the all right, I guess it's it's up to uh. It's freedom of choice at that point, so it's not a bad idea. I couldn't see it. Also, though, being a slippery slope, it's like, well, okay, if that play is not important enough, we can just declare we're skipping it. What else, what do we declare we're skipping next? Every every team just show up with like ten plays they want to run over the course of twenty minutes and let's let's get out of here. Yeah yeah, where are we yet? So Joe Burrow probably gonna win m v P. I just want to say eighty two one is is that's surprisingly uh short odds for for a rookie And I don't know. I I tried to look for a rookie NFL MVP and I didn't find one. Uh, Brian Taylor has to has to join us or something. Uh Defensive Player of the Year? Are you a Are you a T J Waka? You a Miles Garrett guy? I guess make of Fitzpatrick? You could put in that conversation one of the know he'll have to have like seven or eight interceptions for you one to appreciate him? Though, can can can the can the Ravens get in on it? I mean Stephon Gilmore won it a year ago. Can of Marlon Humphrey rise to that level this year? Possibly? I I liked him a lot last season. I've heard mixed reviews within the league on him, which baffles me because I think he's an outstanding corner and I don't know how you could see it differently, But people I respect a lot do see it differently with him. But when he moved to the slot last season, which he did after Marcus Peters came along, that was he was outstanding there. And he is a big, strong, physical cornerback, which you don't get in the slot a whole lot. Now, I don't know if he'll do that this year because Jimmy Smith is moving from right corner to probably number three safety, and the number three safety rolls a big role for them. That's what Brandon Carr played last year, and that's the guy who covers tight ends man demand so and Jimmy Smith I think is suited for that. I think he's going to do very well with that assuming what what will be different is Smith will now have to play inside because that's where tight ends are going to line up, and Jimmy Smith has always played not just outside, but on the right side because I don't he's not a comfortable corner in other spots, so he has to now become a comfortable corner. They'll probably play more man coverage because of that, because most most likely smith discomfort stems from some of those zone reads. I would guess. I don't know that, but that's the likely answer. So anyway, you know, I don't know if Humphrey will play inside this year. The Ravens are probably gonna need a slot corner. Maybe it's Tavon Young if he's healthy. Humphreys our best player. But that's gonna be hard for people to fully appreciate him as well because with the Patriots the discuss, you don't hear people extolling New England's pass rush and blitzes and go oh, they're coming after him, even though the Patriots do that probably more than you guess. That's that's they if they don't do it a lot. Baltimore, that's what's gonna be the story. If you put on the film, not to put on a film, watch him on TV. The announcer is going to talk about all the blitzing. They're gonna talk a little bit about Matt Judon, They'll probably talk a lot about Calais Campbell if he's playing. Well, you don't think of Baltimore as the coverage oriented defense, but that's what you're asking about. All right, that's gonna be a wrap for the show. I do just want to mention and I missed it. I tried to screen grab it and I was too slow. But uh, for did we did we pick a defensive guy? Though we don't think we settled on I think the answers t J Watt okay, Well, I also think t J. Watt. Now, now let me make my point about uh, what I just missed out on. Here you were. I don't think I've ever seen you sit like that before during our show where we have the video commerence here you go, we have zoom going, and you were you were kind of you were very close to your camera, but you were sort of looking off to the side, so it's like a profile and you were just the light was hitting you perfectly. It was a it was a uh it was I don't know it was. It was a work of art there and I tried to screen I couldn't get it in time. I we we the nice scene with the with the pine trees in the in the background, and that's actually that is one single pine trees. I live in the city here, so there aren't a lot of pine trees. The mountains are not far from here. But the guy who owned this house before us planted a Christmas tree for his son forty five years ago and never cut it down. So now we have a Christmas tree that it's easily forty ft tall, easily, it's huge. And I've been told the tree actually is illegal, like it's not if someone took an issue with it they gotta cut it down. It's not you know, uh, it's not natural to this area. It's not an indigenous tree. I would not have a case. Wow. And it's the neighbor's house. And so we both, the neighbor and I, you know, we both appreciated. Yeah. Now it's it's very nice. I've enjoyed that tree for years. Uh and very good new. Shelby Royston, our producer, just chimed in here that he is video recording. He is so so he's got this, he's got this shot. Well, I forget that the cameras on. So I've been sitting off to this side and I look up and I see an empty spot of my window behind me, and I realized I have not been on camera for you. Even though we do this to build a rapport and look at each other when we're talking, thinking that makes us a better communicator, I don't actually look at you when you're talking. No, no, no, we uh. I mean we might as well just do this independently and then have Shelby patch it together and same chemistry. But especially if we're gonna skip your intros again, Yes, I'm allowed to just start talking. Yeah, I would prefer that and I always send in my audio incredibly rude. It was fine, all right, all right, Andy, that's that's a wrap. We got one more to go here in the division preview series. We already we already did the guessing game. It's the NFC North coming next week, and then we'll have some season preview stuff after that. Sounds good. The MMQB Monday Morning NFL Podcast. This be Gary Gramling's special Thanks to Andy Vnoit for joining me for this one. We are produced by Shelby Royston, Sis, Executive producer of podcasts, to Scott Brody. Ben Eagle is director of the editorial Projects and product Mark Ravick is a meritus editor of the MMQB, and Evenoit is the founder of the MMQB NFL podcast. Keep up with our entire lineup of podcast five days a week by subscribing to the MMQB NFL Podcast for free on Apple podcast I'm why are there? Please do us a favor and leave a rating m review. It really does help other people find the show, which is also available on Spotify Radio dot Com, Stitcher, s i dot com, and wherever else you listen to podcasts.