Economists don't expect the Official Cash Rate to be cut today, but they do expect it to be cut this year.

The Reserve Bank is reviewing the cash rate at 2pm today.

It's remained unchanged at 5.5% since May last year, up from a record low 0.25% in August 2021.

ASB’s Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Mike Hosking that they see a cut coming in November.

He said that by that point, there’s been three quarters worth of data surrounding inflation, wages, and unemployment, so a cut is more likely.

LISTEN ABOVE 

Economists don't expect the Official Cash Rate to be cut today, but they do expect it to be cut this year. 
The Reserve Bank is reviewing the cash rate at 2pm today. 
It's remained unchanged at 5.5% since May last year, up from a record low 0.25% in August 2021. 
ASB’s Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Mike Hosking that they see a cut coming in November. 
He said that by that point, there’s been three quarters worth of data surrounding inflation, wages, and unemployment, so a cut is more likely. 
LISTEN ABOVE

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist thinks a OCR cut wont come until November

Is the Nicola Willis public service announcement to be admired or condemned? 

I think the former, on balance. 

They should have done it properly two years ago and they didn’t, hence they probably should not be back here now, unless this was their Machiavellian plan all along. 

Two public service haircuts a term. But assuming that wasn’t it, we go back to a lost opportunity that could be in the rear vision mirror by now. 

What they talked was a big game. What they delivered was a surgical whimper. 

Yes, it is always sad to lose jobs and restructure and cut. But few outside the Wellington bubble would argue with the fact that the growth engine of public service work was absurd and 65,000 is a city, not a workforce. 

To make it worse, they got the same headlines and noise and pushback over a couple of thousand cuts as they would have ten times that. 

So we are back for another crack, driven by necessity. 

That’s the bit to be admired. 

Laying lots of people off in election year is not really a vote-getter 

Mind you it's safe, I think, to say most of the public service aren't conservatives so the vote loss, you'd guess, will be minimal. 

It’s a horrible thing working in an environment where your future is part of the political wind. I faced it at TVNZ and Radio NZ. Whoever woke up on what side of the bed had some effect on what you were paid and whether you were hanging around for a while. 

It's no way to have a job. 

And in that sense, you can blame the Labour Government for stacking the place with well-paid work. And yet as you applied, if you thought about it, surely it couldn’t last, and it hasn’t. 

As the unions bleat, this is not about the public service and its value. They do a lot of good things and a lot of vital things. 

There are a lot of very capable, if not talented, people in the mix. But it’s the extra, the excess and the fat that needs the trimming. 

This is fiscally desperate to a degree – an operating allowance of $2.1 billion and savings from anywhere and everywhere. 

You can't accuse the Government of priming the pumps. The pumps don’t work because "the vandals took the handles", if you know your Bob Dylan. 

The point is slashing spending and killing jobs is not your traditional electioneering. That's to be admired.   

Is the Nicola Willis public service announcement to be admired or condemned?&nbsp;
I think the former, on balance.&nbsp;
They should have done it properly two years ago and they didn’t, hence they probably should not be back here now, unless this was their Machiavellian plan all along.&nbsp;
Two public service haircuts a term. But assuming that wasn’t it, we go back to a lost opportunity that could be in the rear vision mirror by now.&nbsp;
What they talked was a big game. What they delivered was a surgical whimper.&nbsp;
Yes, it is always sad to lose jobs and restructure and cut. But few outside the Wellington bubble would argue with the fact that the growth engine of public service work was absurd and 65,000 is a city, not a workforce.&nbsp;
To make it worse, they got the same headlines and noise and pushback over a couple of thousand cuts as they would have ten times that.&nbsp;
So we are back for another crack, driven by necessity.&nbsp;
That’s the bit to be admired.&nbsp;
Laying lots of people off in election year is not really a vote-getter&nbsp;
Mind you it's safe, I think, to say most of the public service aren't conservatives so the vote loss, you'd guess, will be minimal.&nbsp;
It’s a horrible thing working in an environment where your future is part of the political wind. I faced it at TVNZ and Radio NZ. Whoever woke up on what side of the bed had some effect on what you were paid and whether you were hanging around for a while.&nbsp;
It's no way to have a job.&nbsp;
And in that sense, you can blame the Labour Government for stacking the place with well-paid work. And yet as you applied, if you thought about it, surely it couldn’t last, and it hasn’t.&nbsp;
As the unions bleat, this is not about the public service and its value. They do a lot of good things and a lot of vital things.&nbsp;
There are a lot of very capable, if not talented, people in the mix. But it’s the extra, the excess and the fat that needs the trimming.&nbsp;
This is fiscally desperate to a degree – an operating allowance of $2.1 billion and savings from anywhere and everywhere.&nbsp;
You can't accuse the Government of priming the pumps. The pumps don’t work because "the vandals took the handles", if you know your Bob Dylan.&nbsp;
The point is slashing spending and killing jobs is not your traditional electioneering. That's to be admired. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: The public service cut is to be admired

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/52d5ff3a-4bd3-4024-af2c-b4520163a495/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

Tourism: 7/10 

This has been a good vibe week. TRENZ had them coming from everywhere, the sentiment is good, and the numbers are excellent. 

 

Kiwifruit: 9/10 

This story is starting to outshine dairy. Not in numbers, but in terms of growth. At almost $6 billion and booming, this is mana from vines. Add it to dairy and we are laughing. 

 

Chris Hipkins: 2/10 

This has been, far and away, his worst week of the year. Mystery policy detail and the arrogance to say we aren't interested in detail anyway. He is National's election year dream come true. 

 

Trump: 4/10 

We still don’t have a deal, but we do have a slush fund. He looks increasingly tawdry. But he's just as influential – just ask Thomas Massie. 

 

Newstalk ZB: 8/10 

Guess who’s popular? Ratings day yesterday was party day – the audience is up, and on some shows, up a lot. We thank you and appreciate you, as always, from the bottom of our hearts. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Tourism: 7/10&nbsp;
This has been a good vibe week. TRENZ had them coming from everywhere, the sentiment is good, and the numbers are excellent.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Kiwifruit: 9/10&nbsp;
This story is starting to outshine dairy. Not in numbers, but in terms of growth. At almost $6 billion and booming, this is mana from vines. Add it to dairy and we are laughing.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Chris Hipkins: 2/10&nbsp;
This has been, far and away, his worst week of the year. Mystery policy detail and the arrogance to say we aren't interested in detail anyway. He is National's election year dream come true.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Trump: 4/10&nbsp;
We still don’t have a deal, but we do have a slush fund. He looks increasingly tawdry. But he's just as influential – just ask Thomas Massie.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Newstalk ZB: 8/10&nbsp;
Guess who’s popular? Ratings day yesterday was party day – the audience is up, and on some shows, up a lot. We thank you and appreciate you, as always, from the bottom of our hearts.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: This has been Chris Hipkins' worst week of the year

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c1065b26-deac-47bb-ac65-b4510181fbbd/transcript

Another lesson for our Labour Party if they want to ponder it. 

Australia’s Labor have blown their Budget. 

It's hard to overstate the anger and pushback on their tax changes made now well over a week ago. 

Budgets and their news cycle tend to come and go. 

This was different. It was billed as generational. It was seen as transformational and it was seen as Albanese having to spend a decent chunk of political capital, given his tax treatment was based on a lie. 

He said in the election campaign of last year that he would not touch tax. 12 months on, he went back on his word. 

The twist being the blowback came, and it hasn’t stopped coming, and somewhere in the past few days the concern, followed fairly quickly by panic, started to set in at Government level. 

The anger has not been driven by rich, white, old coalition blokes whose myriad of investments would end up being taxed more. 

It's been driven by young Australians who buy shares to save for retirement. Young Australians who start businesses to set up a decent life for themselves and their families. People the Labor Government never saw coming. 

What it shows, and it's an encouraging sign and one I suspect is as relevant here as it is there, is that a decent chunk of our population are not the moaners you hear on the news. They're not the NGO's bleating about their lot. 

They're not the success haters that dominate the news cycle. Rather, they're middle-of-the-road Kiwis and Australians who are quite keen on working hard and getting ahead in life. 

All they have ever asked for is, to use the vernacular, is "a fair suck of the sav". 

You don’t tax success and that’s what Albanese has had a crack at. 

Why take a risk in starting a business if all there is at the end of it is Jim Chalmers and his tax department looking to extract ever larger amounts of your hard earned? 

That’s what Labour wants to do here. It's always about more tax. It's never about more success, or larger growth, or bigger pie. 

Got an issue? Short of dough? Tax someone. 

Well, middle Australia isn't interested and they have been out in force showing it. 

Maybe Albanese knew that. Maybe that’s why he lied to get into power so he could do what he's done. 

If that's true then Hipkins is in real trouble, because he hasn’t lied. He's told you it's coming. 

And if we are like Australia, it's not going to go down well. 

Another lesson for our Labour Party if they want to ponder it.&nbsp;
Australia’s Labor have blown their Budget.&nbsp;
It's hard to overstate the anger and pushback on their tax changes made now well over a week ago.&nbsp;
Budgets and their news cycle tend to come and go.&nbsp;
This was different. It was billed as generational. It was seen as transformational and it was seen as Albanese having to spend a decent chunk of political capital, given his tax treatment was based on a lie.&nbsp;
He said in the election campaign of last year that he would not touch tax. 12 months on, he went back on his word.&nbsp;
The twist being the blowback came, and it hasn’t stopped coming, and somewhere in the past few days the concern, followed fairly quickly by panic, started to set in at Government level.&nbsp;
The anger has not been driven by rich, white, old coalition blokes whose myriad of investments would end up being taxed more.&nbsp;
It's been driven by young Australians who buy shares to save for retirement. Young Australians who start businesses to set up a decent life for themselves and their families. People the Labor Government never saw coming.&nbsp;
What it shows, and it's an encouraging sign and one I suspect is as relevant here as it is there, is that a decent chunk of our population are not the moaners you hear on the news. They're not the NGO's bleating about their lot.&nbsp;
They're not the success haters that dominate the news cycle. Rather, they're middle-of-the-road Kiwis and Australians who are quite keen on working hard and getting ahead in life.&nbsp;
All they have ever asked for is, to use the vernacular, is "a fair suck of the sav".&nbsp;
You don’t tax success and that’s what Albanese has had a crack at.&nbsp;
Why take a risk in starting a business if all there is at the end of it is Jim Chalmers and his tax department looking to extract ever larger amounts of your hard earned?&nbsp;
That’s what Labour wants to do here. It's always about more tax. It's never about more success, or larger growth, or bigger pie.&nbsp;
Got an issue? Short of dough? Tax someone.&nbsp;
Well, middle Australia isn't interested and they have been out in force showing it.&nbsp;
Maybe Albanese knew that. Maybe that’s why he lied to get into power so he could do what he's done.&nbsp;
If that's true then Hipkins is in real trouble, because he hasn’t lied. He's told you it's coming.&nbsp;
And if we are like Australia, it's not going to go down well.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Aussie Labor have shown NZ Labour what not to do

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/3ab0a126-9e40-4b4f-943b-b451017c889f/transcript

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist thinks a OCR cut wont come until November

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