So the week of grim economic news continues today. We're going to get the GDP data later this morning, and it is expected to tell us that we are back in recession for the third time in two years. Asb's chief economist Nick Toughley is with us.

So the week of grim economic news continues today. We're going to get the GDP data later this morning, and it is expected to tell us that we are back in recession for the third time in two years. Asb's chief economist Nick Toughley is with us.

Now, Hey, Nick, Merry Christmas.

Now, Hey, Nick, Merry Christmas.

Ever, merry Christmas to you two. Are you also picking a fall of about zero point four percent?

Ever, merry Christmas to you two. Are you also picking a fall of about zero point four percent?

Yeah, we've got zero point four percent, the market consensus about mine and zero point two and that's where the Reserve Bank is. The thing we've got to be mindful of is that there's also some revisions coming along, So that could mean that what we think happened in September that even could be a little bit out. So just watch for quite a lot of quite an event call relief.

Yeah, we've got zero point four percent, the market consensus about mine and zero point two and that's where the Reserve Bank is. The thing we've got to be mindful of is that there's also some revisions coming along, So that could mean that what we think happened in September that even could be a little bit out. So just watch for quite a lot of quite an event call relief.

So if it does come through like that, are we looking at potentially manufacturing having quite a big pullback. But we are being saved a little bit by the farmers who are dragging us through this.

So if it does come through like that, are we looking at potentially manufacturing having quite a big pullback. But we are being saved a little bit by the farmers who are dragging us through this.

It's a little bit like that. Look, we've got all that retail pressure, the construction sector pressure, and that's flowing through the manufacturing before you even add on the impacts of the electricity challenges that we had over the quarter as well, where you had quite a bit of shuttering of some of our sort of large manufacturers as well, and the electricity sector was basically burning anything expensive and flama were refined to generate electricity. So the value we had out of that sector we put in miserable too. But yes, really good production coming through in the dairy side for us. We're looking like there was a bit of activity picking up in there, so that's helping that good sector and also a slowing service sector out.

It's a little bit like that. Look, we've got all that retail pressure, the construction sector pressure, and that's flowing through the manufacturing before you even add on the impacts of the electricity challenges that we had over the quarter as well, where you had quite a bit of shuttering of some of our sort of large manufacturers as well, and the electricity sector was basically burning anything expensive and flama were refined to generate electricity. So the value we had out of that sector we put in miserable too. But yes, really good production coming through in the dairy side for us. We're looking like there was a bit of activity picking up in there, so that's helping that good sector and also a slowing service sector out.

So can we say that if we're going to take some good news out of this, it's that way through the worst of it.

So can we say that if we're going to take some good news out of this, it's that way through the worst of it.

Yeah, I'll say there's two bits of news. We can focus on the good side here. Hopefully this is the last sort of sustained contraction that we see and from here on in it's gradual recovery. And there are the early signs that we're all feeling a little bit happier and we found our wallets somewhere. The second thing is that we likely to see the sort of more complete revisions coming out that suggest the level of GDP at the start of this year was nearly two percentage points higher than what we previously thought so that basically says, you know, the economy held up a bit better, our productivity wasn't quite as bad as what we thought. Having said that, it still felt pretty tough out there for a lot of people this year.

Yeah, I'll say there's two bits of news. We can focus on the good side here. Hopefully this is the last sort of sustained contraction that we see and from here on in it's gradual recovery. And there are the early signs that we're all feeling a little bit happier and we found our wallets somewhere. The second thing is that we likely to see the sort of more complete revisions coming out that suggest the level of GDP at the start of this year was nearly two percentage points higher than what we previously thought so that basically says, you know, the economy held up a bit better, our productivity wasn't quite as bad as what we thought. Having said that, it still felt pretty tough out there for a lot of people this year.

Yeah, and is it not going to still feel I mean, even though we're through the worst of it's still going to feel tough next year because we're looking at pretty flat growth potentially, it's a forecast of about zero point five percent, and still per capita, we're going backwards, aren't we.

Yeah, and is it not going to still feel I mean, even though we're through the worst of it's still going to feel tough next year because we're looking at pretty flat growth potentially, it's a forecast of about zero point five percent, and still per capita, we're going backwards, aren't we.

Well, we think we'll be back into I guess the heck headline growth coming through with the next quarter and more starting to look progressively more solid next year and getting out of a per carefitter recession, and it's going to be a case of more of a gradual turnaround. Like one of the big things obviously that's caused this slowdown and the pain has been higher interest rates. They are on the way down, but because we've got a lot of people on fixed rate mortgages, it just takes a while for that impact to flow through and it will pick up. It will pick up momentum, just in the short term. We've had a lot of people fixing for say six months, so that they sort of hopefully benefit from much lower rates next year. So it's bud the impact right now. It'll really pick up next year.

Well, we think we'll be back into I guess the heck headline growth coming through with the next quarter and more starting to look progressively more solid next year and getting out of a per carefitter recession, and it's going to be a case of more of a gradual turnaround. Like one of the big things obviously that's caused this slowdown and the pain has been higher interest rates. They are on the way down, but because we've got a lot of people on fixed rate mortgages, it just takes a while for that impact to flow through and it will pick up. It will pick up momentum, just in the short term. We've had a lot of people fixing for say six months, so that they sort of hopefully benefit from much lower rates next year. So it's bud the impact right now. It'll really pick up next year.

Good Steffanickay, thanks very much. Enjoy your holiday break. That's a Nick Toughly asb's chief economist. For more from the My Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio

Good Steffanickay, thanks very much. Enjoy your holiday break. That's a Nick Toughly asb's chief economist. For more from the My Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio