Economists say pausing the OCR could be prudent as we wait to find out more about the state of global trade.  

The Reserve Bank will make a call today on whether to cut the Official Cash Rate for a seventh consecutive time or hold it steady at 3.25%.  

There's much to consider, including uncertainty about the US tariffs.  

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Heather du Plessis-Allan we'll have more information next month about inflation and inflation expectations.  

He says hopefully all the trade deadlines will be dealt with and we'll have more clarity about what tariffs countries face.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

Economists say pausing the OCR could be prudent as we wait to find out more about the state of global trade. &nbsp;
The Reserve Bank will make a call today on whether to cut the Official Cash Rate for a seventh consecutive time or hold it steady at 3.25%. &nbsp;
There's much to consider, including uncertainty about the US tariffs. &nbsp;
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Heather du Plessis-Allan we'll have more information next month about inflation and inflation expectations. &nbsp;
He says hopefully all the trade deadlines will be dealt with and we'll have more clarity about what tariffs countries face. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

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Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist ahead of today's OCR announcement

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d772d2ad-866d-49dc-af2a-b314014a5a16/transcript

This is quite possibly from our "hopeless causes" file. 

But can I at least try and make the plea that we have a look at the economic damage done by trigger-happy weather offices and compliant clickbait media when it comes to storm warnings? 

Cyclone Vaianu was the latest and is hopefully still fresh enough in our memories to remind us of a week's worth of hyperbole and headline nonsense that actually caused quite a lot of damage. 

Not storm damage, but economic damage. 

Spending in Northland was down 48%. 

Auckland down 46%. 

Waikato down 52% (that would have included the Supercars that got canned). 

Bay of Plenty down 68%. 

Gisborne down 51%. 

Hawkes Bay down 56%. 

Now obviously in the middle of a storm on that blowy, old Saturday and into Sunday you have already worked out you're not booking an outdoor table for lunch. 

But these figures will include the week building up to the event, the drama that started the previous Sunday, with the ever-present "keep an eye on this one" headlines, and as the week progressed, the alarmism grew. Not because alarmism was required, but because the weather wonks and the media feed off each other. 

The weather people love publicity and the media, especially digital, love potential clickbait. And nothing baits your click like pending metrological carnage. 

So in that prior Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, how many things got cancelled? Bookings killed? Trips binned? Decisions altered? That’s the economic damage we can avoid. 

If you remember, it wasn’t until Friday they actually knew what the weather, they thought, would do. 

They were still wrong. But at least by Friday they had confidence in the ensuing days. When so much of our potential economic activity got canned, they were still speculating and blabbering on about trampolines and holiday travel and telling you how to live your life. 

Somewhere along the line the weather people got carried away with their own self-importance and the media gee'd them up and what is a two-day storm turned into a week-long extravaganza. An orgy of verbal diarrhoea, amping and amping and amping. 

And, as the data shows, doing untold damage to regions that didn’t really need it, as well as a storm. 

The forlorn hope? That this data sobers a few people up and maybe, just maybe, next time a few grown-ups drive the narrative. 

This is quite possibly from our "hopeless causes" file.&nbsp;
But can I at least try and make the plea that we have a look at the economic damage done by trigger-happy weather offices and compliant clickbait media when it comes to storm warnings?&nbsp;
Cyclone Vaianu was the latest and is hopefully still fresh enough in our memories to remind us of a week's worth of hyperbole and headline nonsense that actually caused quite a lot of damage.&nbsp;
Not storm damage, but economic damage.&nbsp;
Spending in Northland was down 48%.&nbsp;
Auckland down 46%.&nbsp;
Waikato down 52% (that would have included the Supercars that got canned).&nbsp;
Bay of Plenty down 68%.&nbsp;
Gisborne down 51%.&nbsp;
Hawkes Bay down 56%.&nbsp;
Now obviously in the middle of a storm on that blowy, old Saturday and into Sunday you have already worked out you're not booking an outdoor table for lunch.&nbsp;
But these figures will include the week building up to the event, the drama that started the previous Sunday, with the ever-present "keep an eye on this one" headlines, and as the week progressed, the alarmism grew. Not because alarmism was required, but because the weather wonks and the media feed off each other.&nbsp;
The weather people love publicity and the media, especially digital, love potential clickbait. And nothing baits your click like pending metrological carnage.&nbsp;
So in that prior Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, how many things got cancelled? Bookings killed? Trips binned? Decisions altered? That’s the economic damage we can avoid.&nbsp;
If you remember, it wasn’t until Friday they actually knew what the weather, they thought, would do.&nbsp;
They were still wrong. But at least by Friday they had confidence in the ensuing days. When so much of our potential economic activity got canned, they were still speculating and blabbering on about trampolines and holiday travel and telling you how to live your life.&nbsp;
Somewhere along the line the weather people got carried away with their own self-importance and the media gee'd them up and what is a two-day storm turned into a week-long extravaganza. An orgy of verbal diarrhoea, amping and amping and amping.&nbsp;
And, as the data shows, doing untold damage to regions that didn’t really need it, as well as a storm.&nbsp;
The forlorn hope? That this data sobers a few people up and maybe, just maybe, next time a few grown-ups drive the narrative.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: The economic damage caused by weather warnings

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/4afe0781-4131-4f42-bf86-b440016f7941/transcript

European leaders have been expressing their concerns over Donald Trump's "Project Freedom" as they met at a political summit in Armenia. 

Project Freedom began on Monday with the stated aim of getting stranded neutral commercial ships out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. 

But French president Emmanuel Macron overnight warned the US project lacked clarity and risked further tension, Europe correspondent Catherine Field told Mike Hosking. 

Other European countries were also waking up to how they are affected by the war, despite their initial claims that it had nothing to do with them, Field said. 

“Europe's economies are being affected, its transport is being affected. So we're now seeing that Germany has started moving some of its defence assets into position and in particular it's started moving mine hunters into the Mediterranean ready to move to that area…when fighting stops.” 

Also attending the summit was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said a new world order would be rebuilt out of Europe, and it needed to think about how it could cooperate with nations beyond the EU. 

Carney’s presence showed everyone was realising the US was not just a complicated partner, it was now seen as unpredictable, emphasising the need for unity, Field said. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

European leaders have been expressing their concerns over Donald Trump's "Project Freedom" as they met at a political summit in Armenia.&nbsp;
Project Freedom began on Monday with the stated aim of getting stranded neutral commercial ships out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.&nbsp;
But French president Emmanuel Macron overnight warned the US project lacked clarity and risked further tension, Europe correspondent Catherine Field told Mike Hosking.&nbsp;
Other European countries were also waking up to how they are affected by the war, despite their initial claims that it had nothing to do with them, Field said.&nbsp;
“Europe's economies are being affected, its transport is being affected. So we're now seeing that Germany has started moving some of its defence assets into position and in particular it's started moving mine hunters into the Mediterranean ready to move to that area…when fighting stops.”&nbsp;
Also attending the summit was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said a new world order would be rebuilt out of Europe, and it needed to think about how it could cooperate with nations beyond the EU.&nbsp;
Carney’s presence showed everyone was realising the US was not just a complicated partner, it was now seen as unpredictable, emphasising the need for unity, Field said.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Catherine Field: Europe Correspondent on the talks between European leaders regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East conflict

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/20b48e45-5029-4203-b058-b440016e7777/transcript

With the Miami Grand Prix officially having run its course, it's time to assess the changes to the controversial Formula 1 regulations. 

Tweaks were made following backlash from the drivers, with the electric batteries impacting their ability to race effectively.  

Former Team Manager at Williams and former GM at Ferrari, Peter Windsor told Mike Hosking quite a few people spoke out against the new regulations when they were first implemented. 

“I think there was a lot wrong with them, but I think in Miami, we are 75% towards addressing most of the issues.” 

However, there are still flaws, and Windsor believes they’re still keeping great drivers from doing as much with the car as they used to going into reasonably fast corners.  

“We’re not seeing the best of a Charles Leclerc or a Max Verstappen yet, but we’re getting there.”  

But he doesn’t believe F1 will be able to iron out the flaws with the current regulations entirely, which is why people seem to be turning towards V8 engines for 2030. 

“I think the general feeling is that we went too far,” Windsor told Hosking. 

“We can make it work reasonably well, pretty well certainly by year two, probably year three, but it’s still not where Formula 1 really wants to be.” 

LISTEN ABOVE  

With the Miami Grand Prix officially having run its course, it's time to assess the changes to the controversial Formula 1 regulations.&nbsp;
Tweaks were made following backlash from the drivers, with the electric batteries impacting their ability to race effectively. &nbsp;
Former Team Manager at Williams and former GM at Ferrari, Peter Windsor told Mike Hosking quite a few people spoke out against the new regulations when they were first implemented.&nbsp;
“I think there was a lot wrong with them, but I think in Miami, we are 75% towards addressing most of the issues.”&nbsp;
However, there are still flaws, and Windsor believes they’re still keeping great drivers from doing as much with the car as they used to going into reasonably fast corners. &nbsp;
“We’re not seeing the best of a Charles Leclerc or a Max Verstappen yet, but we’re getting there.” &nbsp;
But he doesn’t believe F1 will be able to iron out the flaws with the current regulations entirely, which is why people seem to be turning towards V8 engines for 2030.&nbsp;
“I think the general feeling is that we went too far,” Windsor told Hosking.&nbsp;
“We can make it work reasonably well, pretty well certainly by year two, probably year three, but it’s still not where Formula 1 really wants to be.”&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Peter Windsor: Former Team Manager at Williams and former GM at Ferrari on the Miami Grand Prix, tweaks to the new regulations

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f442c0ff-752d-4b7e-8913-b440016b4e07/transcript

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist ahead of today's OCR announcement

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