Economists say pausing the OCR could be prudent as we wait to find out more about the state of global trade.  

The Reserve Bank will make a call today on whether to cut the Official Cash Rate for a seventh consecutive time or hold it steady at 3.25%.  

There's much to consider, including uncertainty about the US tariffs.  

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Heather du Plessis-Allan we'll have more information next month about inflation and inflation expectations.  

He says hopefully all the trade deadlines will be dealt with and we'll have more clarity about what tariffs countries face.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

Economists say pausing the OCR could be prudent as we wait to find out more about the state of global trade. &nbsp;
The Reserve Bank will make a call today on whether to cut the Official Cash Rate for a seventh consecutive time or hold it steady at 3.25%. &nbsp;
There's much to consider, including uncertainty about the US tariffs. &nbsp;
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Heather du Plessis-Allan we'll have more information next month about inflation and inflation expectations. &nbsp;
He says hopefully all the trade deadlines will be dealt with and we'll have more clarity about what tariffs countries face. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist ahead of today's OCR announcement

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d772d2ad-866d-49dc-af2a-b314014a5a16/transcript

Forget Greenland – in our own backyard we have growing action in the Pacific between America and China. 

This is not breaking news, but the US is trying to renew its strategic compact ties with places like Palau and the Marshall Islands, and testimony in front of the House Committee on Natural Resources suggests China is waging a sustained influence campaign aimed at weakening democratic institutions and strategic alignment in the Pacific. 

Now this is all good news for us, given it felt like America wasn’t that overtly interested in the Pacific these past few years. 

But Trump seems active everywhere, so the more they are alert to what's going on, the better. 

The downside though is that there appears nothing we can do. Despite the efforts of us and Australia, too many Pacific nations have gone, to a degree, with China and that is for the simple reason of money in whatever form. 

Places with no dough tend to like a large cheque and when our moderate sized cheques got replaced with much bigger cheques the writing was on the wall. 

The Cooks is your best and closest example. We can withhold aid until we are blue in the face, it is not going to make a jot of difference. 

Enter Winston Peters, who I always thought has got the advantage of experience in matters like this and it has, and is, making him a very able Foreign Minister. 

But he has come on this show a number of times and argued the value of friendship. 

As I have pointed out the cold, hard reality of Chinese money and promises, he has countered with what seems to be the genuine belief that friendship matters. 

I fear that’s an old man talking. His view is muddled by a bygone era, hope and good vibes. 

It would be nice to think friendship was a thing, but it doesn’t beat dollars. 

Some in the Pacific will still say it could have been different if we and Australia had been more generous over the years, but I don’t believe that for a minute either. 

China is here and they are shopping. The upside is America, at last, has not just woken up, but they might just be awake and alarmed enough to do something about it. 

Forget Greenland – in our own backyard we have growing action in the Pacific between America and China.&nbsp;
This is not breaking news, but the US is trying to renew its strategic compact ties with places like Palau and the Marshall Islands, and testimony in front of the House Committee on Natural Resources suggests China is waging a sustained influence campaign aimed at weakening democratic institutions and strategic alignment in the Pacific.&nbsp;
Now this is all good news for us, given it felt like America wasn’t that overtly interested in the Pacific these past few years.&nbsp;
But Trump seems active everywhere, so the more they are alert to what's going on, the better.&nbsp;
The downside though is that there appears nothing we can do. Despite the efforts of us and Australia, too many Pacific nations have gone, to a degree, with China and that is for the simple reason of money in whatever form.&nbsp;
Places with no dough tend to like a large cheque and when our moderate sized cheques got replaced with much bigger cheques the writing was on the wall.&nbsp;
The Cooks is your best and closest example. We can withhold aid until we are blue in the face, it is not going to make a jot of difference.&nbsp;
Enter Winston Peters, who I always thought has got the advantage of experience in matters like this and it has, and is, making him a very able Foreign Minister.&nbsp;
But he has come on this show a number of times and argued the value of friendship.&nbsp;
As I have pointed out the cold, hard reality of Chinese money and promises, he has countered with what seems to be the genuine belief that friendship matters.&nbsp;
I fear that’s an old man talking. His view is muddled by a bygone era, hope and good vibes.&nbsp;
It would be nice to think friendship was a thing, but it doesn’t beat dollars.&nbsp;
Some in the Pacific will still say it could have been different if we and Australia had been more generous over the years, but I don’t believe that for a minute either.&nbsp;
China is here and they are shopping. The upside is America, at last, has not just woken up, but they might just be awake and alarmed enough to do something about it.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: America might be able to help in the Pacific

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

Trump's week: 2/10 

Outside the usual madness came the NATO soldier Afghanistan insult and a dead man in Minneapolis, followed by the usual flannel about domestic terrorists. This time the backlash was real, forceful, and might well stick. 

 

The rugby union: 4/10 

Too many rules around the coach. It's a classic case of overthinking it – just go get the best. 

 

NZ Post: 6/10 

Yes, we would all like a post shop in the lounge, but it's not real so at least good on them for telling it like it is and defending a tough, but realistic, decision. 

 

Fees Free: 2/10 

Data that shows why the polls are where they are. Very few are keen on a repeat of that level of fiscal carnage. 

 

Judith Collins: 8/10 

Not just time (24 years) but a workload and a legacy. You don’t get 18 portfolios without leaving an imprint. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Trump's week: 2/10&nbsp;
Outside the usual madness came the NATO soldier Afghanistan insult and a dead man in Minneapolis, followed by the usual flannel about domestic terrorists. This time the backlash was real, forceful, and might well stick.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/steve-lancaster-nz-rugby-interim-ceo-on-the-search-for-a-new-all-blacks-coach/">The rugby union: 4/10</a>&nbsp;
Too many rules around the coach. It's a classic case of overthinking it – just go get the best.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
NZ Post: 6/10&nbsp;
Yes, we would all like a post shop in the lounge, but it's not real so at least good on them for telling it like it is and defending a tough, but realistic, decision.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/chris-whelan-universities-nz-ceo-on-the-fees-free-scheme-failing-to-reach-disadvantaged-students/">Fees Free: 2/10</a>&nbsp;
Data that shows why the polls are where they are. Very few are keen on a repeat of that level of fiscal carnage.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/judith-collins-senior-national-mp-on-her-resignation-from-politics-after-24-years/">Judith Collins: 8/10</a>&nbsp;
Not just time (24 years) but a workload and a legacy. You don’t get 18 portfolios without leaving an imprint.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: NZR is overthinking the All Blacks coach

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b41b02ed-37c7-46d7-bc6d-b3e1015ad57d/transcript

We end the week with a reality check. 

I was a bit underwhelmed by the Government's response to the last couple of week's weather events. 

$2 million is not a lot of money, which in a way is good because it indicates the damage isn't that bad. 

The damage is that bad. It's just the big stuff, the roads and bridges and infrastructure, is being paid for out of contingency budgets in various Government's departments. 

Fine. But as I asked, and got no real answer to, is that the plan, is it? 

Build it, watch it get destroyed, patch it up, watch it get destroyed and patch it up? It's not my favoured plan. 

I asked Penk, Mitchell, and Luxon what the big picture is. There is one, they reassure us. Not sure of a timeframe, which is political speak for "it's on the never-never". 

Yet in the Post from AA Insurance to the Buller District Mayor is the news they will be suspending cover for the region. No new business in the postcode of 7825, Westport, Carters Beach, and Cape Foulwind. 

This is where this goes. Just how many letters from how many insurance companies do you want before the big calls need to be made? 

Matata should have been the red flag and that started 20 years ago. Already Wellington, for other reasons, has insurance issues. 

The Upper Hunter Valley in New South Wales has been dealing with it for years. Even if you can get cover, it's at least $50,000 a year. 

There are, rightly or wrongly, sadly or not, chunks of the country that look problematic. Ignoring them or relying on an ever-increasing contingency budget is not going to make them any less so. 

The Government.is always the last port of call in crisis. The taxpayer will always be the one asked to provide the accommodation and bridge and food when the climate tips life upside down. 

Federated Farmers said it's not acceptable to have State Highway 2 to Waioweka cut off. Correct, it isn't. 

But the Government's answers are more band aids. AA Insurance's answer is no more cover. 

One of them is missing the point. One of them is showing you how this unfolds.     

We end the week with a reality check.&nbsp;
I was a bit underwhelmed by the Government's response to the last couple of week's weather events.&nbsp;
$2 million is not a lot of money, which in a way is good because it indicates the damage isn't that bad.&nbsp;
The damage is that bad. It's just the big stuff, the roads and bridges and infrastructure, is being paid for out of contingency budgets in various Government's departments.&nbsp;
Fine. But as I asked, and got no real answer to, is that the plan, is it?&nbsp;
Build it, watch it get destroyed, patch it up, watch it get destroyed and patch it up? It's not my favoured plan.&nbsp;
I asked Penk, Mitchell, and Luxon what the big picture is. There is one, they reassure us. Not sure of a timeframe, which is political speak for "it's on the never-never".&nbsp;
Yet in the Post from AA Insurance to the Buller District Mayor is the news they will be suspending cover for the region. No new business in the postcode of 7825, Westport, Carters Beach, and Cape Foulwind.&nbsp;
This is where this goes. Just how many letters from how many insurance companies do you want before the big calls need to be made?&nbsp;
Matata should have been the red flag and that started 20 years ago. Already Wellington, for other reasons, has insurance issues.&nbsp;
The Upper Hunter Valley in New South Wales has been dealing with it for years. Even if you can get cover, it's at least $50,000 a year.&nbsp;
There are, rightly or wrongly, sadly or not, chunks of the country that look problematic. Ignoring them or relying on an ever-increasing contingency budget is not going to make them any less so.&nbsp;
The Government.is always the last port of call in crisis. The taxpayer will always be the one asked to provide the accommodation and bridge and food when the climate tips life upside down.&nbsp;
Federated Farmers said it's not acceptable to have State Highway 2 to Waioweka cut off. Correct, it isn't.&nbsp;
But the Government's answers are more band aids. AA Insurance's answer is no more cover.&nbsp;
One of them is missing the point. One of them is showing you how this unfolds. &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: A reality check for the Government on climate hit areas

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/57f4a18d-e85a-480f-8a86-b3e101569ea7/transcript

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist ahead of today's OCR announcement

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