A bump to New Zealand's unemployment figures is forecast later this morning.

A number of economists believe it will land at 4.3%, up from the September quarter's 3.9%.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley agrees.

He told Mike Hosking that it's important to bear in mind that these figures bounce around quarter-to-quarter.

Tuffley says the trend they're looking for is the weaker labour market, slowing employment growth, and slowing wage growth.

LISTEN ABOVE

A bump to New Zealand's unemployment figures is forecast later this morning. 
A number of economists believe it will land at 4.3%, up from the September quarter's 3.9%. 
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley agrees. 
He told Mike Hosking that it's important to bear in mind that these figures bounce around quarter-to-quarter. 
Tuffley says the trend they're looking for is the weaker labour market, slowing employment growth, and slowing wage growth. 
LISTEN ABOVE

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist ahead of the unemployment figures forecast

As an extension to the 5% first home buyer deposit policy the National Party has released and the Labour Party is backing, can we possibly learn from its practicality and apply it to areas that are increasingly fraught? 

I cite fast-track. 

Fast-rack is an excellent idea. It gets things done better than what we had previously. Just ask the Tauranga Port; they spent seven years going nowhere under old rules while under fast-track it took five months to be sorted. 

But on housing we have trouble. 

I've raised this with the Prime Minister, but he doesn’t get it or want to get it. 

The key to successful election campaigns is offering simple, practical solutions to what voters perceive as problems. It's called retail politics. 

A 5% deposit for a young person is material and it's practical. 

Fast-track housing developments have turned into exactly what I said they would – trouble. Angsty, edgy, piss-people-off trouble. 

The Auckland Council is now considering refusing services to new developments. This is just the start. 

Any number of fury-filled meetings have been held, from Central Otago to Northland, to Auckland and to Christchurch over large-scale, 1000+ housing developments that are using fast-track to get the tick of approval. 

This will cost the Government votes. 

All the esoteric nonsense like bank buybacks and AI centre funding and breaking up supermarkets is beltway wonkery. Getting your backyard upended is real. 

They have to get large scale housing out of fast-track. 

Luxon argues every time I raise it that it's not just about housing, and he's correct. But that doesn’t address the elephant, and if he doesn’t address it, the voter will. 

The practicality and success of a 5% deposit for a house is directly connected to fast-track. 

Think about it – for average voters it's about their life. Can they afford a home and is their home their castle? Is their neighbourhood theirs? 

While 5% solves one, fast-track housing risks another. 

Ask yourself this question: are we in desperate need of tens of thousands of new houses, in a stagnant market and falling prices? 

It staggers me they can't see this. Politically, they need to join the dots, and fast. 

As an extension to the 5% first home buyer deposit policy the National Party has released and the Labour Party is backing, can we possibly learn from its practicality and apply it to areas that are increasingly fraught?&nbsp;
I cite fast-track.&nbsp;
Fast-rack is an excellent idea. It gets things done better than what we had previously. Just ask the Tauranga Port; they spent seven years going nowhere under old rules while under fast-track it took five months to be sorted.&nbsp;
But on housing we have trouble.&nbsp;
I've raised this with the Prime Minister, but he doesn’t get it or want to get it.&nbsp;
The key to successful election campaigns is offering simple, practical solutions to what voters perceive as problems. It's called retail politics.&nbsp;
A 5% deposit for a young person is material and it's practical.&nbsp;
Fast-track housing developments have turned into exactly what I said they would – trouble. Angsty, edgy, piss-people-off trouble.&nbsp;
The Auckland Council is now considering refusing services to new developments. This is just the start.&nbsp;
Any number of fury-filled meetings have been held, from Central Otago to Northland, to Auckland and to Christchurch over large-scale, 1000+ housing developments that are using fast-track to get the tick of approval.&nbsp;
This will cost the Government votes.&nbsp;
All the esoteric nonsense like bank buybacks and AI centre funding and breaking up supermarkets is beltway wonkery. Getting your backyard upended is real.&nbsp;
They have to get large scale housing out of fast-track.&nbsp;
Luxon argues every time I raise it that it's not just about housing, and he's correct. But that doesn’t address the elephant, and if he doesn’t address it, the voter will.&nbsp;
The practicality and success of a 5% deposit for a house is directly connected to fast-track.&nbsp;
Think about it – for average voters it's about their life. Can they afford a home and is their home their castle? Is their neighbourhood theirs?&nbsp;
While 5% solves one, fast-track housing risks another.&nbsp;
Ask yourself this question: are we in desperate need of tens of thousands of new houses, in a stagnant market and falling prices?&nbsp;
It staggers me they can't see this. Politically, they need to join the dots, and fast.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Again, get housing out of fast-track

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/70c3f284-bbf6-4f4f-a1dd-b4c20168cfa5/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

The 5% first home buyers policy: 8/10 

Small house deposits for first-timers is the policy of the week. In fact, it's the policy of the campaign so far. It's easy, practical, and solves an issue important to voters. 

 

Michelin: 7/10 

Possibly the most encouraging story of the week. The Michelin effect is real, it's ongoing, and the good operators can prove it. 

 

Chris Hipkins: 4/10 

Worst week in a long time. A second bad poll and growing questions around the campaign, or lack of it, and his personal ability to look like he's actually interested. 

 

Trump: 2/10 

Is making stuff up about 9/11 a new low? When does exaggeration and bombast wander into the territory of insult and plain BS? 

 

The Warriors: 9/10 

Rounded it out with yet more victory. Home advantage, a week off and, potentially, it's all a dream coming true. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The 5% first home buyers policy: 8/10&nbsp;
Small house deposits for first-timers is the policy of the week. In fact, it's the policy of the campaign so far. It's easy, practical, and solves an issue important to voters.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Michelin: 7/10&nbsp;
Possibly the most encouraging story of the week. The Michelin effect is real, it's ongoing, and the good operators can prove it.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Chris Hipkins: 4/10&nbsp;
Worst week in a long time. A second bad poll and growing questions around the campaign, or lack of it, and his personal ability to look like he's actually interested.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Trump: 2/10&nbsp;
Is making stuff up about 9/11 a new low? When does exaggeration and bombast wander into the territory of insult and plain BS?&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The Warriors: 9/10&nbsp;
Rounded it out with yet more victory. Home advantage, a week off and, potentially, it's all a dream coming true.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: Is this a new low for Trump?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/bb42a04a-183c-4b67-986d-b4c1016c367f/transcript

Is this the week the tide turned for the Labour Party and their chances of Government slipped away? 

It's indisputably true to say it hasn’t been their week, or even a good week. 

Some of the stuff that’s been bubbling for a while came to a, sort-of, head. 

The lack of policy, the waiting for this magical PREFU, which allegedly contains Lord-knows-what by way of fiscal revelation, that will somehow make billions upon billions of dollars in promises make some sort of sense. 

Are people who could vote Labour tired of waiting? Uninspired by the lack of vigour? Or just realising that the economy is coming back and the recovery is real, so some of the angst that drove them away from the Government is now melting? 

Are Labour not radical enough, so the Greens get a look in? 

Are people scared of the Greens and even more scared of the Māori Party, so the realisation has dawned on them that Labour can't do deals with mad people, so maybe the Government aren't that bad after all? 

Does the first meeting of the campaign for their leader, which involved 100 people and a cat, display the lack of enthusiasm, not just from Labour, but from their supporters who are channelling the lacklustre approach of their party? 

It's important to remember that of all the polling so far this year, the vast majority have never actually had Labour winning the election. But it did have them in front of National, which has given the media enough to feed on. 

But even that, in the past two polls, has slipped away and what was once the 'Luxon nightmare' is now the 'Hipkins drama'. "Is he the right guy?" 

Or is the ghost of 2023 back? As more people focus on their vote and what's happening around them, do the memories of the lockdowns, the fiscal failures, the kids not at school and the crime waves remind them that Hipkins, Sepuloni, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verral, et al are the same people? They haven't changed and the party hasn’t changed. 

Do the memories of the endless working groups come flooding back? And does the laziness of that period look a lot like the laziness of this period of minimal policy, of lack of vigour, of a lackadaisical Government bagging sound bite obsession? Does it remind us these guys work office hours and are out of original thought? 

It ain't over. But man, they look flat. 

And Hipkins looks flatter than most. 

Is this the week the tide turned for the Labour Party and their chances of Government slipped away?&nbsp;
It's indisputably true to say it hasn’t been their week, or even a good week.&nbsp;
Some of the stuff that’s been bubbling for a while came to a, sort-of, head.&nbsp;
The lack of policy, the waiting for this magical PREFU, which allegedly contains Lord-knows-what by way of fiscal revelation, that will somehow make billions upon billions of dollars in promises make some sort of sense.&nbsp;
Are people who could vote Labour tired of waiting? Uninspired by the lack of vigour? Or just realising that the economy is coming back and the recovery is real, so some of the angst that drove them away from the Government is now melting?&nbsp;
Are Labour not radical enough, so the Greens get a look in?&nbsp;
Are people scared of the Greens and even more scared of the Māori Party, so the realisation has dawned on them that Labour can't do deals with mad people, so maybe the Government aren't that bad after all?&nbsp;
Does the first meeting of the campaign for their leader, which involved 100 people and a cat, display the lack of enthusiasm, not just from Labour, but from their supporters who are channelling the lacklustre approach of their party?&nbsp;
It's important to remember that of all the polling so far this year, the vast majority have never actually had Labour winning the election. But it did have them in front of National, which has given the media enough to feed on.&nbsp;
But even that, in the past two polls, has slipped away and what was once the 'Luxon nightmare' is now the 'Hipkins drama'. "Is he the right guy?"&nbsp;
Or is the ghost of 2023 back? As more people focus on their vote and what's happening around them, do the memories of the lockdowns, the fiscal failures, the kids not at school and the crime waves remind them that Hipkins, Sepuloni, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verral, et al are the same people? They haven't changed and the party hasn’t changed.&nbsp;
Do the memories of the endless working groups come flooding back? And does the laziness of that period look a lot like the laziness of this period of minimal policy, of lack of vigour, of a lackadaisical Government bagging sound bite obsession? Does it remind us these guys work office hours and are out of original thought?&nbsp;
It ain't over. But man, they look flat.&nbsp;
And Hipkins looks flatter than most.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: It hasn't been a good week for Labour

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/8bd93812-a770-4fd1-88ef-b4c10168462f/transcript

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist ahead of the unemployment figures forecast

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