There’s just under 100 days until the US midterms arrive. 

Broadly, the Democrats have an edge in the polls, but both the House and the Senate are tight – the Republicans holding a narrow majority. 

There are a few key factors that are likely to play a role in the election’s outcome – Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East, his unpredictability, and the business with the Supreme Court.  

Expert in US politics, Nick Bryant told Mike Hosking the economic disruption caused by Trump’s war with Iran is so politically problematic. 

“One of the key things about this war, Mike, is that Trump cannot warp reality,” Bryant explained. 

“He cannot get even his most ardent supporters to ignore the evidence of their own eyes and the evidence of their own wallets.” 

A Washington Post-Ipsos poll shows waning support for Trump, with his overall approval rating sitting at 37%.  

The way he’s handling the economy and Iran are viewed even more negatively, with only 33% saying they approve of his economic stewardship, and 29% approving of his handling of Iran.  

"Even amongst Republicans, it’s terrible,” Bryant told Hosking. 

“Just 19% of Republicans have told CNN in the latest poll that they are enthusiastic about the rest of his second term.” 

“That’s just one in five Republicans.” 

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