The only winner out of political polls is the media for the simple reason it gives them a chance to pontificate and clickbait. 

"Luxon fronts media after bad poll”. 

Why is that the headline as opposed to "Hipkins answers questions after poll collapse"? 

Let's do some simple math: there are about 53% of voters who are broadly centre-right. Pollsters will tell you this to be true. 

If you accept NZ First are doing well, their highest number is 15% so take that off your 53%, you are down to 38%. 

Take a chunk off for ACT, they seem to be about 7-9% so let's call it 8%, and you're at 30%, which is where National roughly are. 

The numbers make perfect sense. It's not a "bad poll", it's simple math. 

If there is one “real” story in any given poll, especially this week's one, it's that the main parties of Labour and National are sharing a shrinking slice of the vote, which if you like MMP is what is supposed to happen. 

The Greens, ACT and NZ First have established themselves as a permanent presence. We should be celebrating this, not because of specific policy, but because we voted for a system that spreads the vote and provides greater representation. 

That’s what we wanted so that is good news. 

Also, you've got Opportunity at 4%. I don’t think they'll get there, but if I'm wrong and they get the 5% and they go on to become the newest member of the permanent club, that is further support that will bleed away from the major players. 

The media coverage discusses none of this because I suspect they haven't thought about it, or indeed they may not even understand it. 

A lot of Europe with proportional systems have Governments led by parties who won the election with a vote in the 20's, if not low 20's. That is proportional representation. 

Here's the next big question: it's been ruled out by the Greens, but not Labour, so why not cut the head of Opportunity an electorate deal in Mt Albert? 

Mt Albert is tight. Helen White won it by a whisker. Opportunity could split the vote and hand the place to the Nats, or Labour could David Seymour it and Epsom her into Parliament and thus create a brand-new coalition partner. 

That’s the really interesting part of the polls and machinations. But no, the media just want "Luxon fronts media after bad poll". 

They are stuck in the 90's. This is a way more gripping story than they are telling. 

The only winner out of political polls is the media for the simple reason it gives them a chance to pontificate and clickbait.&nbsp;
"Luxon fronts media after bad poll”.&nbsp;
Why is that the headline as opposed to "Hipkins answers questions after poll collapse"?&nbsp;
Let's do some simple math: there are about 53% of voters who are broadly centre-right. Pollsters will tell you this to be true.&nbsp;
If you accept NZ First are doing well, their highest number is 15% so take that off your 53%, you are down to 38%.&nbsp;
Take a chunk off for ACT, they seem to be about 7-9% so let's call it 8%, and you're at 30%, which is where National roughly are.&nbsp;
The numbers make perfect sense. It's not a "bad poll", it's simple math.&nbsp;
If there is one “real” story in any given poll, especially this week's one, it's that the main parties of Labour and National are sharing a shrinking slice of the vote, which if you like MMP is what is supposed to happen.&nbsp;
The Greens, ACT and NZ First have established themselves as a permanent presence. We should be celebrating this, not because of specific policy, but because we voted for a system that spreads the vote and provides greater representation.&nbsp;
That’s what we wanted so that is good news.&nbsp;
Also, you've got Opportunity at 4%. I don’t think they'll get there, but if I'm wrong and they get the 5% and they go on to become the newest member of the permanent club, that is further support that will bleed away from the major players.&nbsp;
The media coverage discusses none of this because I suspect they haven't thought about it, or indeed they may not even understand it.&nbsp;
A lot of Europe with proportional systems have Governments led by parties who won the election with a vote in the 20's, if not low 20's. That is proportional representation.&nbsp;
Here's the next big question: it's been ruled out by the Greens, but not Labour, so why not cut the head of Opportunity an electorate deal in Mt Albert?&nbsp;
Mt Albert is tight. Helen White won it by a whisker. Opportunity could split the vote and hand the place to the Nats, or Labour could David Seymour it and Epsom her into Parliament and thus create a brand-new coalition partner.&nbsp;
That’s the really interesting part of the polls and machinations. But no, the media just want "Luxon fronts media after bad poll".&nbsp;
They are stuck in the 90's. This is a way more gripping story than they are telling.&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike's Minute: The only winner of the political polls

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a39697d7-40b5-489b-9350-b47301843246/transcript