Week two of this campaign of 2026 – is it close? They say so. 

But then one poll had Labour at 23%, and another poll had them at 29%. That's how bad polling has become, so who would know? 

It might be as simple as what happens with the Opportunity Party – if they're in, the Government is out. If they aren't, the Government are back. 

Or it could be one of those "hold your nose" votes where a lot of the people go, "I'm no Luxon fan but I'm sticking with what I know". My suspicion is that’s how it will play out. 

But as for the actual campaign, if it was a contest of campaign performance alone, so far ACT would be winning. 

They don’t get the same coverage as National and Labour, but I have watched a lot of it. A lot of it is streamed these days. If you really want to inform yourself there is a tremendous amount of material to be consumed. 

It's hard to overstate the Paul Henry factor. Online and in halls he is by any measure a political rockstar. 

In a world where politicians would sell their mother for attention, Henry packs halls and entertains the crowd. The fact many are there for a gawk doesn’t matter. For an hour before the selfie, he has your attention. 

Online he is a one-man commentary blitzkrieg, and often funny with it. 

Seymour, who by the way is still leader, is disciplined and this is why they win the campaign so far. They look the most like you would expect them to look. 

Labour look like National. That fiscal plan must have killed them, given it doesn’t add up. 

But they were desperate to be seen as not nuts. The income test, for example, for parents of young unemployed; it's a classic Tory policy but Labour won't reverse it. Gang patch policy? They won't reverse it. 

They are National-lite. 

Which brings us to National. A 47 point small business policy after three years in Government – are you serious?   

The leader stumbles over a question about billionaires – are you serious? 

They are so afraid of offending anyone that they're frozen stiff in a state of boring. 

They don’t look like winners, they look like pleaders. 

NZ First need better cut through. I saw Winston in a double-breasted suit in a mall. If he had had Meta glasses, it would have been the full creepathon. 

Anyway, two weeks in, four to go. 

This week's prediction: the Government return by a whisker. ACT are rolling nicely and the polls are all over the shop. 

Shout out to Hipkins who, although starting late, looks to this point, on point. And at last, the whole thing feels like we have woken up and started paying attention. 

It's all on.  

Week two of this campaign of 2026 – is it close? They say so.&nbsp;
But then one poll had Labour at 23%, and another poll had them at 29%. That's how bad polling has become, so who would know?&nbsp;
It might be as simple as what happens with the Opportunity Party – if they're in, the Government is out. If they aren't, the Government are back.&nbsp;
Or it could be one of those "hold your nose" votes where a lot of the people go, "I'm no Luxon fan but I'm sticking with what I know". My suspicion is that’s how it will play out.&nbsp;
But as for the actual campaign, if it was a contest of campaign performance alone, so far ACT would be winning.&nbsp;
They don’t get the same coverage as National and Labour, but I have watched a lot of it. A lot of it is streamed these days. If you really want to inform yourself there is a tremendous amount of material to be consumed.&nbsp;
It's hard to overstate the Paul Henry factor. Online and in halls he is by any measure a political rockstar.&nbsp;
In a world where politicians would sell their mother for attention, Henry packs halls and entertains the crowd. The fact many are there for a gawk doesn’t matter. For an hour before the selfie, he has your attention.&nbsp;
Online he is a one-man commentary blitzkrieg, and often funny with it.&nbsp;
Seymour, who by the way is still leader, is disciplined and this is why they win the campaign so far. They look the most like you would expect them to look.&nbsp;
Labour look like National. That fiscal plan must have killed them, given it doesn’t add up.&nbsp;
But they were desperate to be seen as not nuts. The income test, for example, for parents of young unemployed; it's a classic Tory policy but Labour won't reverse it. Gang patch policy? They won't reverse it.&nbsp;
They are National-lite.&nbsp;
Which brings us to National. A 47 point small business policy after three years in Government – are you serious? &nbsp;&nbsp;
The leader stumbles over a question about billionaires – are you serious?&nbsp;
They are so afraid of offending anyone that they're frozen stiff in a state of boring.&nbsp;
They don’t look like winners, they look like pleaders.&nbsp;
NZ First need better cut through. I saw Winston in a double-breasted suit in a mall. If he had had Meta glasses, it would have been the full creepathon.&nbsp;
Anyway, two weeks in, four to go.&nbsp;
This week's prediction: the Government return by a whisker. ACT are rolling nicely and the polls are all over the shop.&nbsp;
Shout out to Hipkins who, although starting late, looks to this point, on point. And at last, the whole thing feels like we have woken up and started paying attention.&nbsp;
It's all on. &nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike's Minute: The best performing party of the campaign so far

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f9d781d7-c7f4-43c7-b2bb-b4dd016493ef/transcript