Welcome to the Midterms of 2026.

Quite possibly, if I can sound almost unpatriotic, they're more interesting as an exercise in democracy than our own election. 

It would seem a foregone conclusion that the Republicans, read Trump, will lose the House. 

It is less certain what will happen in the Senate. 

If it goes really wrong and both flip, stand by for any number of inquiries and impeachments. Stand by for retribution writ large. Stand by for two solid years of unmitigated mudslinging and lawyers. 

What Trump says is true: incumbents always lose something in the midterms. There is always pushback. 

It's also worth noting that before he started the war he talked of reversing that trend, of winning big. But his singular decision to go after Iran has sunk his presidency. 

In fact, an insightful piece I read the other day suggested the markets, specifically oil, should adjust to a permanent, unending standoff in the Hormuz Strait and the Middle East. 

In other words, this is the future. 

Some of the races, especially in the Senate, may not turn out to be the disasters the media want them to be. Being close, as in Michigan or Texas, is not losing. 

So let's see what the result is, as opposed to the polls and expectations. They wrote Netanyahu off as well, and as far as I can see he still stands a very real chance of leading the place. 

Trump, though, can't escape the simple truth that of any modern president, possibly any president of all time, he singularly has taken what by any measure was an astonishing political comeback and blown it sky high. 

People will forgive you a lot, especially an oddball like Trump, if you actually do a good job. If you do make America great again, you can build a ballroom and put granite on the helipad. 

But if you don't, and then lie about it and pretend everything is great when it isn't, you simply look insane. 

Which is exactly where he finds himself. 

Trump had got to the point, given previous results, where it was dangerous to second-guess him at the polls. But like most of the games he has played, that game is now up. 

This week he will get caned, and deservedly so. 

Welcome to the Midterms of 2026.
Quite possibly, if I can sound almost unpatriotic, they're more interesting as an exercise in democracy than our own election.&nbsp;
It would seem a foregone conclusion that the Republicans, read Trump, will lose the House.&nbsp;
It is less certain what will happen in the Senate.&nbsp;
If it goes really wrong and both flip, stand by for any number of inquiries and impeachments. Stand by for retribution writ large. Stand by for two solid years of unmitigated mudslinging and lawyers.&nbsp;
What Trump says is true: incumbents always lose something in the midterms. There is always pushback.&nbsp;
It's also worth noting that before he started the war he talked of reversing that trend, of winning big. But his singular decision to go after Iran has sunk his presidency.&nbsp;
In fact, an insightful piece I read the other day suggested the markets, specifically oil, should adjust to a permanent, unending standoff in the Hormuz Strait and the Middle East.&nbsp;
In other words, this is the future.&nbsp;
Some of the races, especially in the Senate, may not turn out to be the disasters the media want them to be. Being close, as in Michigan or Texas, is not losing.&nbsp;
So let's see what the result is, as opposed to the polls and expectations. They wrote Netanyahu off as well, and as far as I can see he still stands a very real chance of leading the place.&nbsp;
Trump, though, can't escape the simple truth that of any modern president, possibly any president of all time, he singularly has taken what by any measure was an astonishing political comeback and blown it sky high.&nbsp;
People will forgive you a lot, especially an oddball like Trump, if you actually do a good job. If you do make America great again, you can build a ballroom and put granite on the helipad.&nbsp;
But if you don't, and then lie about it and pretend everything is great when it isn't, you simply look insane.&nbsp;
Which is exactly where he finds himself.&nbsp;
Trump had got to the point, given previous results, where it was dangerous to second-guess him at the polls. But like most of the games he has played, that game is now up.&nbsp;
This week he will get caned, and deservedly so.&nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike's Minute: My verdict for the Midterms

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/ac825aee-4aef-4edc-97b4-b4f7015d67ea/transcript