Fun fact time – it turns out we really aren't into elections all that much. 

The average turnout since 1982 has been 78%. Last election it was 78%. To me, that is not a great result, given over 90% of us had enrolled. 

Why do we make so much of the enrolment process when we know the chances of those people turning out is next to zero? 

And what happens to all those people who do enrol but don't vote? It's not like they don't have the time, a place, or an opportunity. 

Early voting has become a thing. Once upon a time it was a sign, normally, of a rush, an energy to oust an incumbent. Nowadays it's about making it easy, and you do it while you're shopping. 

They say this year voting is well ahead of last time. What does that mean? Nothing. Because the real test will be how many ultimately turn out at all. And if the number is as per usual, my bet is all bets are off. 

Why? 

Because the polls that show it's a tight race may not apply, because many of the people who answered a poll might not vote. 

"Telling" and "doing" are clearly two different things. Motivation is your key. 

That's why historically conservative and older voters are to be trusted more on turnout. The younger you are, the less likely you are to enrol and/or vote. You can answer a poll and tell us your problem, but it doesn't mean you will do anything about it. 

In the 1980s and 1990s turnout was always in the mid-80's. By the turn of the century, it's in the 70s. The exception is 2020, because of Covid. 

We are less interested in democracy. 

In 2011 turnout was 74%, the lowest since the 1880's. We should be ashamed of ourselves. 

It is why the Greens don't vote as well as they poll. 

My sense is that in 2026 turnout will be low. There has been a lack of energy, a lack of fizz, a lack of spark. 

You either want the current lot, or you don't. 

The policies are worth little, if anything. 

There have been no firebrand issues. The candidates are vanilla. These are not historic times. 

A low turnout favours the incumbents. 

What you think might happen and what does happen, as history shows, could well be two entirely different things. 

Fun fact time – it turns out we really aren't into elections all that much.&nbsp;
The average turnout since 1982 has been 78%. Last election it was 78%. To me, that is not a great result, given over 90% of us had enrolled.&nbsp;
Why do we make so much of the enrolment process when we know the chances of those people turning out is next to zero?&nbsp;
And what happens to all those people who do enrol but don't vote? It's not like they don't have the time, a place, or an opportunity.&nbsp;
Early voting has become a thing. Once upon a time it was a sign, normally, of a rush, an energy to oust an incumbent. Nowadays it's about making it easy, and you do it while you're shopping.&nbsp;
They say this year voting is well ahead of last time. What does that mean? Nothing. Because the real test will be how many ultimately turn out at all. And if the number is as per usual, my bet is all bets are off.&nbsp;
Why?&nbsp;
Because the polls that show it's a tight race may not apply, because many of the people who answered a poll might not vote.&nbsp;
"Telling" and "doing" are clearly two different things. Motivation is your key.&nbsp;
That's why historically conservative and older voters are to be trusted more on turnout. The younger you are, the less likely you are to enrol and/or vote. You can answer a poll and tell us your problem, but it doesn't mean you will do anything about it.&nbsp;
In the 1980s and 1990s turnout was always in the mid-80's. By the turn of the century, it's in the 70s. The exception is 2020, because of Covid.&nbsp;
We are less interested in democracy.&nbsp;
In 2011 turnout was 74%, the lowest since the 1880's. We should be ashamed of ourselves.&nbsp;
It is why the Greens don't vote as well as they poll.&nbsp;
My sense is that in 2026 turnout will be low. There has been a lack of energy, a lack of fizz, a lack of spark.&nbsp;
You either want the current lot, or you don't.&nbsp;
The policies are worth little, if anything.&nbsp;
There have been no firebrand issues. The candidates are vanilla. These are not historic times.&nbsp;
A low turnout favours the incumbents.&nbsp;
What you think might happen and what does happen, as history shows, could well be two entirely different things.&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

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Mike's Minute: I think 2026 turnout will be low, which is our norm

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/122cd237-a08c-4160-8c91-b4f90160316c/transcript