An upside to Covid is most of us got into the Reserve Bank “thing”.

We thought about it more than we ever had, and had a better understanding of what they are about and how profoundly they affect all our lives.

The Fed is not cutting until maybe September, but then the jobs report came out on Friday, people panicked and there are calls for emergency cuts. It won't happen and, in a way, that’s why we have Fed's and not people who freak out running the place.

Yesterday the Australian Reserve Bank made their call. Last week there was a real suggestion, based on jobs numbers, that not only was there not going to be a cut, there could be a hike. That led to headline writers suggesting it would be the end of Albanese and that it was the decision of a generation. In the end they held.

Next week we have our own central bank doing the same thing.

There is a bit of thought that they could cut. I doubt they will because jobs are not our problem. We certainly don’t have too many of them, but inflation has not come down to a state they will be comfortable with. Our non-tradables is at 5.4% and that is not cutting territory.

Most retail banks say there will be one or two cuts by the end of the year. They are most probably right, which means that the Reserve Bank is wrong as they are currently telling us they are not cutting until well into next year.

Big clue though - the game has changed.

Although we all march to our own beat, we are nevertheless intertwined. If the Fed in America cuts, we will too. We cannot be an outlier. We are so flotsam and jetsam-esque that we go where the world does.

Of course what has routed the U.S market in particular is the tech obsession. A bloke in a leather jacket made some neat AI chips and everybody drank the Kool-Aid on what AI was going to do to the world.

It's another bubble. Not AI itself necessarily, but the hype around the next cool thing made by the next cool company. A lot of activity on markets is not routed in basics, fundamentals or common sense, but noise and speculative greed.

Thank the Good Lord that is not what central banks dabble in.

Make no mistake - this is all a mess. Economically, New Zealand is not going remotely well.

But increasingly the white heat of expectation shines on central banks, from Wall Street to Chifley Square yesterday, to the terrace next week.

An upside to Covid is most of us got into the Reserve Bank “thing”. 
We thought about it more than we ever had, and had a better understanding of what they are about and how profoundly they affect all our lives. 
The Fed is not cutting until maybe September, but then the jobs report came out on Friday, people panicked and there are calls for emergency cuts. It won't happen and, in a way, that’s why we have Fed's and not people who freak out running the place. 
Yesterday the Australian Reserve Bank made their call. Last week there was a real suggestion, based on jobs numbers, that not only was there not going to be a cut, there could be a hike. That led to headline writers suggesting it would be the end of Albanese and that it was the decision of a generation. In the end they held. 
Next week we have our own central bank doing the same thing. 
There is a bit of thought that they could cut. I doubt they will because jobs are not our problem. We certainly don’t have too many of them, but inflation has not come down to a state they will be comfortable with. Our non-tradables is at 5.4% and that is not cutting territory. 
Most retail banks say there will be one or two cuts by the end of the year. They are most probably right, which means that the Reserve Bank is wrong as they are currently telling us they are not cutting until well into next year. 
Big clue though - the game has changed. 
Although we all march to our own beat, we are nevertheless intertwined. If the Fed in America cuts, we will too. We cannot be an outlier. We are so flotsam and jetsam-esque that we go where the world does. 
Of course what has routed the U.S market in particular is the tech obsession. A bloke in a leather jacket made some neat AI chips and everybody drank the Kool-Aid on what AI was going to do to the world. 
It's another bubble. Not AI itself necessarily, but the hype around the next cool thing made by the next cool company. A lot of activity on markets is not routed in basics, fundamentals or common sense, but noise and speculative greed. 
Thank the Good Lord that is not what central banks dabble in. 
Make no mistake - this is all a mess. Economically, New Zealand is not going remotely well. 
But increasingly the white heat of expectation shines on central banks, from Wall Street to Chifley Square yesterday, to the terrace next week.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

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