The Reserve Bank looks set to turn the screws on interest rates again today. 

Most economists expect the OCR to rise from 2.5% when the decision is announced at 2pm. 

One or two further hikes are forecast before Christmas. 

BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking he expects the Monetary Policy Committee to reach a consensus on the increase, but it’s possible not everyone will agree. 

He says the Reserve Bank hinted strongly in July that we would see additional rate increases, and there's been nothing in the numbers since to change that. 

However, Jones says a pause will eventually be needed to see how the economy's handling the higher rates. 

He says that time isn't now, but probably when the rate reaches 3%. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

The Reserve Bank looks set to turn the screws on interest rates again today.&nbsp;
Most economists expect the OCR to rise from 2.5% when the decision is announced at 2pm.&nbsp;
One or two further hikes are forecast before Christmas.&nbsp;
BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking he expects the Monetary Policy Committee to reach a consensus on the increase, but it’s possible not everyone will agree.&nbsp;
He says the Reserve Bank hinted strongly in July that we would see additional rate increases, and there's been nothing in the numbers since to change that.&nbsp;
However, Jones says a pause will eventually be needed to see how the economy's handling the higher rates.&nbsp;
He says that time isn't now, but probably when the rate reaches 3%.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the expectation the Reserve Bank will hike the Official Cash Rate from 2.5%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/56e6fa28-5d2e-4be3-86da-b4b801491cc7/transcript

Housing is set to be a buyer's market for a while longer.  

The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update shows housing price growth will peak at 3% by March 2028, down slightly from 3.2% in the budget update.  

Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson told Mike Hosking the further out you go, the more uncertainty there is, but there's potentially a general change underway in the market at the moment, and so growth may look lower in the future.  

He says there's a variety of reasons why this could play out —including higher supply, debt to income ratio changes and lower interest rates— and it's not so good for homeowners. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Housing is set to be a buyer's market for a while longer. &nbsp;
The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update shows housing price growth will peak at 3% by March 2028, down slightly from 3.2% in the budget update. &nbsp;
Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson told Mike Hosking the further out you go, the more uncertainty there is, but there's potentially a general change underway in the market at the moment, and so growth may look lower in the future. &nbsp;
He says there's a variety of reasons why this could play out —including higher supply, debt to income ratio changes and lower interest rates— and it's not so good for homeowners.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Kelvin Davidson: Cotality Chief Property Economist on Treasury slashing the house price growth forecast

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f007eab4-18a4-4d06-abf0-b4d40144595b/transcript

The Finance Minister has her eye firmly on returning to surplus after a pre-election look into the books.  

Treasury forecasts predict the next two years' deficits will be much smaller, and the 2028/29 surplus nearly $2 billion larger than expected.  

But much of that improvement is down to income-tax bracket creep, and more revenue from GST and company tax.  

Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking it would be irresponsible to be talking about how they'll spend a surplus on things like tackling the tax bracket creep before it's arrived. 

She says circumstances could change, not because they won't remain focused, but because the world is volatile and forecasts could shift.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

The Finance Minister has her eye firmly on returning to surplus after a pre-election look into the books. &nbsp;
Treasury forecasts predict the next two years' deficits will be much smaller, and the 2028/29 surplus nearly $2 billion larger than expected. &nbsp;
But much of that improvement is down to income-tax bracket creep, and more revenue from GST and company tax. &nbsp;
Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking it would be irresponsible to be talking about how they'll spend a surplus on things like tackling the tax bracket creep before it's arrived.&nbsp;
She says circumstances could change, not because they won't remain focused, but because the world is volatile and forecasts could shift. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Nicola Willis: Finance Minister on the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update showing a stronger outlook, larger surplus

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/84428ad3-dd58-4151-b332-b4d401402e35/transcript

Labour's leader is confident their numbers add up when it comes to paying for their policies – including reversing pay equity changes. 

The Government's books were opened yesterday in Treasury's Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update. 

It revealed the planned 2028/29 surplus will be nearly $2 billion bigger than forecast, and the Crown will borrow less.  

Treasury thinks unemployment's peaked, and inflation's predicted to be back where it should be next year. 

Chris Hipkins told Mike Hosking they'll show there's room for pay equity in their fiscal plan, but won't have a specific line item on it. 

He says you don't tell the other side what's in the envelope when you're going through a bargaining process, and that's never been done with pay equity. 

Hipkins is also still coming to terms with the news that former Speaker and Labour MP Adrian Rurawhe has died. 

Rurawhe was MP for Te Tai Hauāuru from 2014 to 2023, was the Speaker in the last Labour Government's second term, and was a Labour list MP from 2023 until early this year. 

The 65-year-old will lie in state at Whangaehu Marae, south of Whanganui, until his burial at Ngā Puketuurua Ratana Pa. 

The Labour Leader told Hosking Rurawhe was well-respected across Parliament and did a great job as Speaker, and his death will come as a shock to everyone. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Labour's leader is confident their numbers add up when it comes to paying for their policies – including reversing pay equity changes.&nbsp;
The Government's books were opened yesterday in Treasury's Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update.&nbsp;
It revealed the planned 2028/29 surplus will be nearly $2 billion bigger than forecast, and the Crown will borrow less. &nbsp;
Treasury thinks unemployment's peaked, and inflation's predicted to be back where it should be next year.&nbsp;
Chris Hipkins told Mike Hosking they'll show there's room for pay equity in their fiscal plan, but won't have a specific line item on it.&nbsp;
He says you don't tell the other side what's in the envelope when you're going through a bargaining process, and that's never been done with pay equity.&nbsp;
Hipkins is also still coming to terms with the news that former Speaker and Labour MP Adrian Rurawhe has died.&nbsp;
Rurawhe was MP for Te Tai Hauāuru from 2014 to 2023, was the Speaker in the last Labour Government's second term, and was a Labour list MP from 2023 until early this year.&nbsp;
The 65-year-old will lie in state at Whangaehu Marae, south of Whanganui, until his burial at Ngā Puketuurua Ratana Pa.&nbsp;
The Labour Leader told Hosking Rurawhe was well-respected across Parliament and did a great job as Speaker, and his death will come as a shock to everyone.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Chris Hipkins: Labour Leader on their policy costings in the wake of PREFU, Adrian Rurawhe's death

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/dd8cd228-d0e5-42e1-bf53-b4d401361a86/transcript

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the expectation the Reserve Bank will hike the Official Cash Rate from 2.5%

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