Today's inflation numbers won't reflect the full impact of the war in the Middle East. 

The first quarter of this year's expected to show a dip in annual inflation after 2025 ended with a rate of 3.1%.  

Bank economists are predicting an inflation rate between 2.8 and 3.1%. 

BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking despite not showing the current picture, there will still be some interest in today’s numbers – particularly the core inflation figures. 

He says that if they ease, it’ll give the Reserve Bank a bit more rope to look through some of the shock, and if they strengthen, it’ll probably excite those calling for earlier rate increases. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Today's inflation numbers won't reflect the full impact of the war in the Middle East.&nbsp;
The first quarter of this year's expected to show a dip in annual inflation after 2025 ended with a rate of 3.1%. &nbsp;
Bank economists are predicting an inflation rate between 2.8 and 3.1%.&nbsp;
BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking despite not showing the current picture, there will still be some interest in today’s numbers – particularly the core inflation figures.&nbsp;
He says that if they ease, it’ll give the Reserve Bank a bit more rope to look through some of the shock, and if they strengthen, it’ll probably excite those calling for earlier rate increases.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the CPI data for Q1 releasing today amidst the Middle East crisis

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/1aadef1a-624f-46c1-8b3a-b4320155b48b/transcript

Consumer confidence is in the doldrums again. 

We are a flakey old society. They’ve seen something similar in America. Take a single confidence reading and you’d believe it’s the end of the world. 

But the metrics on jobs and spending defy the mood. 

Which would lead you to believe what people say and what people do are often different things. 

We are sitting at 80. It’s fallen 14 – that’s a lot. 100 or more is positive. We are far from positive. 

If it helps, I am positive. Could I find stuff to be negative about? Yes, I could. We all could, at any time, no matter what’s going on. 

But take spending. Data out this week from last month: it was up, and up a lot. Durables were up. Durables are things like sofas and fridges. Why would you buy a sofa if you are miserable? And yet we did. 

Oil this week is down. A lot. That money will go into café lunches and movie tickets. Things are getting better. 

I think it’s a “fear the worst” mentality that we suffer from. 

The food price stats yesterday, they are virtually normal. In other words, in the Reserve Bank band. No extra inflation from the war. 

The interest rate hikes that were going to be needed to tame the so-called runaway secondary costs landing on our beleaguered economy may not be needed. 

Now, the common line used is yes, some are doing it tough; no, we are not out of the woods – and all of that is true. 

But it isn’t as bad as most predicted. The facts cannot be denied unless you have a political agenda and it suits you to deny them. 

In other words, if you look on average at the facts, most people have work, most people are under financial control. The banks tell us this. Spending is up. We have some savings. And looking forward, the war is over – things will get better. 

The GDP today tells us what we were travelling like pre-war, and that was pretty good, thank you. 

So the facts do not equate to the 80 in confidence. 

Now be miserable if you want, it’s a free world. But I’m not, and I reckon I’m better for it. 

Consumer confidence is in the doldrums again.&nbsp;
We are a flakey old society. They’ve seen something similar in America. Take a single confidence reading and you’d believe it’s the end of the world.&nbsp;
But the metrics on jobs and spending defy the mood.&nbsp;
Which would lead you to believe what people say and what people do are often different things.&nbsp;
We are sitting at 80. It’s fallen 14 – that’s a lot. 100 or more is positive. We are far from positive.&nbsp;
If it helps, I am positive. Could I find stuff to be negative about? Yes, I could. We all could, at any time, no matter what’s going on.&nbsp;
But take spending. Data out this week from last month: it was up, and up a lot. Durables were up. Durables are things like sofas and fridges. Why would you buy a sofa if you are miserable? And yet we did.&nbsp;
Oil this week is down. A lot. That money will go into café lunches and movie tickets. Things are getting better.&nbsp;
I think it’s a “fear the worst” mentality that we suffer from.&nbsp;
The food price stats yesterday, they are virtually normal. In other words, in the Reserve Bank band. No extra inflation from the war.&nbsp;
The interest rate hikes that were going to be needed to tame the so-called runaway secondary costs landing on our beleaguered economy may not be needed.&nbsp;
Now, the common line used is yes, some are doing it tough; no, we are not out of the woods – and all of that is true.&nbsp;
But it isn’t as bad as most predicted. The facts cannot be denied unless you have a political agenda and it suits you to deny them.&nbsp;
In other words, if you look on average at the facts, most people have work, most people are under financial control. The banks tell us this. Spending is up. We have some savings. And looking forward, the war is over – things will get better.&nbsp;
The GDP today tells us what we were travelling like pre-war, and that was pretty good, thank you.&nbsp;
So the facts do not equate to the 80 in confidence.&nbsp;
Now be miserable if you want, it’s a free world. But I’m not, and I reckon I’m better for it.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: We've got to be more positive

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/2585625d-8776-46dc-afd0-b46c017b2d4b/transcript

British TV celeb Jeremy Clarkson announced a cancer diagnosis on the latest episode of Clarkson's Farm. 

The 66-year-old pre-warned Instagram followers it would be a difficult watch, without revealing why. 

He let out the news in a sombre chat with programme stalwarts Kaleb Cooper and Charlie Ireland. 

UK Correspondent Enda Brady told Mike Hosking the one good thing that’s come of it is the number of men now talking about prostate cancer and the test. 

He says Clarkson’s shone a light on farming, and him making a full recovery from it and speaking about it will do a lot of good. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

British TV celeb Jeremy Clarkson announced a cancer diagnosis on the latest episode of Clarkson's Farm.&nbsp;
The 66-year-old pre-warned Instagram followers it would be a difficult watch, without revealing why.&nbsp;
He let out the news in a sombre chat with programme stalwarts Kaleb Cooper and Charlie Ireland.&nbsp;
UK Correspondent Enda Brady told Mike Hosking the one good thing that’s come of it is the number of men now talking about prostate cancer and the test.&nbsp;
He says Clarkson’s shone a light on farming, and him making a full recovery from it and speaking about it will do a lot of good.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Enda Brady: UK Correspondent on the FIFA World Cup, Labour leadership challenge, Jeremy Clarkson's cancer diagnosis

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/07daf4e7-c1c4-4f06-9330-b46c017232cd/transcript

Charlie Puth has been busy.  

In 2026 alone, the Grammy-nominated and multi-platinum singer has had his first child, released his fourth album, ‘Whatever’s Clever!’, and begun touring said album. 

He’s just wrapped up the US leg of his tour, which included a performance at the iconic Madison Square Garden, and is now preparing to hop on a plane to start the European leg.  

And that’s not where it ends, as Puth will be bringing the show to New Zealand’s shores in November of this year. 

Performing at Madison Square Garden is widely considered to be a pinnacle moment in an artist’s career, and according to Puth, it is definitely all it’s cracked up to be. 

“For me especially, just because I’m basically from here, so it’s very full circle,” he told Mike Hosking. 

“The first show I ever played was in the West Village for 100 people, and we sold out Madison Square Garden, which is a little over 16,000 people.” 

“It’s very full circle for me.” 

Adding to the feeling were the guests Puth brought out on stage during the performance, Art Garfunkel, Jimmy Fallon, Busta Rhymes, and Kirk Franklin – all people who inspired him musically.  

Performing with Art Garfunkel, of Simon & Garfunkel, seems to be a particular highlight, as Puth’s a big fan. 

“It was an honour to bring them back out there, and everybody, there was such roaring applause from everybody – kids to adults. His music is so universal.”  

And while his visit to New Zealand is still a while away, Puth says it’s definitely on his radar. 

“I’m really excited to come back.” 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Charlie Puth has been busy. &nbsp;
In 2026 alone, the Grammy-nominated and multi-platinum singer has had his first child, released his fourth album, ‘Whatever’s Clever!’, and begun touring said album.&nbsp;
He’s just wrapped up the US leg of his tour, which included a performance at the iconic Madison Square Garden, and is now preparing to hop on a plane to start the European leg. &nbsp;
And that’s not where it ends, as Puth will be bringing the show to New Zealand’s shores in November of this year.&nbsp;
Performing at Madison Square Garden is widely considered to be a pinnacle moment in an artist’s career, and according to Puth, it is definitely all it’s cracked up to be.&nbsp;
“For me especially, just because I’m basically from here, so it’s very full circle,” he told Mike Hosking.&nbsp;
“The first show I ever played was in the West Village for 100 people, and we sold out Madison Square Garden, which is a little over 16,000 people.”&nbsp;
“It’s very full circle for me.”&nbsp;
Adding to the feeling were the guests Puth brought out on stage during the performance, Art Garfunkel, Jimmy Fallon, Busta Rhymes, and Kirk Franklin – all people who inspired him musically. &nbsp;
Performing with Art Garfunkel, of Simon &amp; Garfunkel, seems to be a particular highlight, as Puth’s a big fan.&nbsp;
“It was an honour to bring them back out there, and everybody, there was such roaring applause from everybody – kids to adults. His music is so universal.” &nbsp;
And while his visit to New Zealand is still a while away, Puth says it’s definitely on his radar.&nbsp;
“I’m really excited to come back.”&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Charlie Puth: Musician on his album 'Whatever's Clever!', touring, playing Madison Square Garden and Art Garfunkel

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/1330a924-ab62-41c5-bf45-b46c016eb7d1/transcript

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the CPI data for Q1 releasing today amidst the Middle East crisis

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