There's uncertainty if the Reserve Bank will change tack following the revelation of New Zealand's deep recession. 

Stats NZ figures out yesterday show GDP fell 1% in the three months to September. 

It’s also revised the preceding quarter down to 1.1% contraction. 

Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell says it did achieve its goal of bringing inflation under control. 

He told Heather du Plessis-Allan he doubts they'll ramp up the size of OCR cuts next year in response to the recession. 

Reddell says it's more likely they'll go ahead with a 50 basis point cut, then tail them off next year. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

There's uncertainty if the Reserve Bank will change tack following the revelation of New Zealand's deep recession.&nbsp;
Stats NZ figures out yesterday show GDP fell 1% in the three months to September.&nbsp;
It’s also revised the preceding quarter down to 1.1% contraction.&nbsp;
Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell says it did achieve its goal of bringing inflation under control.&nbsp;
He told Heather du Plessis-Allan he doubts they'll ramp up the size of OCR cuts next year in response to the recession.&nbsp;
Reddell says it's more likely they'll go ahead with a 50 basis point cut, then tail them off next year.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Michael Reddell: Former Reserve Bank Economist on the likely way the Reserve Bank will respond to the drop in the GDP

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/7b851b05-65ba-43ec-8dad-b24b013c9f05/transcript

Christopher Luxon’s made the right call not going to Waitangi next year. 

He's probably going to cop it from the press gallery for being a wuss but most of us have been around long enough to see the logic in this. 

We know by now that Waitangi is volatile and unpredictable at the best of times. You can cop a dildo in the face for doing nothing. 

So imagine how intense it will be next year with the Treaty Principles bill debate in full swing and the select committee progress already underway. 

Already Willie Jackson has warned the Prime Minister about his safety if he goes up there because apparently Māori are angry. 

And as Willie Jackson says, "you just never know". 

It’s hardly as if Luxon is being made to feel welcome. 

He’s apparently been told he’s allowed to come on the 6th but not on the 4th because he’s not welcome at the big meeting the National Iwi Chairs Forum hosts every year. 

He’s had a letter from the hikoi organisers telling him he’s not welcome at Waitangi at all. 

Luxon loses nothing by giving it a miss. I doubt very much he’ll win votes by going. 

But he could actually lose votes by going and standing there like a piñata, taking a verbal bashing over a bill that’s actually not his. 

He’s better off leaving the defending to the guy who’s actually responsible for the bill, David Seymour, who says he is going. 

So Luxon I think can say he’s done enough, he's been there two years in a row already, he’s shown respect and defended his corner and he’s not being made to feel welcome. 

He’s been threatened. 

Right-minded people will absolutely, I think, understand why he may not want to go and why he frankly shouldn't. 

Christopher Luxon’s made the right call not going to Waitangi next year.&nbsp;
He's probably going to cop it from the press gallery for being a wuss but most of us have been around long enough to see the logic in this.&nbsp;
We know by now that Waitangi is volatile and unpredictable at the best of times. You can cop a dildo in the face for doing nothing.&nbsp;
So imagine how intense it will be next year with the Treaty Principles bill debate in full swing and the select committee progress already underway.&nbsp;
Already Willie Jackson has warned the Prime Minister about his safety if he goes up there because apparently Māori are angry.&nbsp;
And as Willie Jackson says, "you just never know".&nbsp;
It’s hardly as if Luxon is being made to feel welcome.&nbsp;
He’s apparently been told he’s allowed to come on the 6th but not on the 4th because he’s not welcome at the big meeting the National Iwi Chairs Forum hosts every year.&nbsp;
He’s had a letter from the hikoi organisers telling him he’s not welcome at Waitangi at all.&nbsp;
Luxon loses nothing by giving it a miss. I doubt very much he’ll win votes by going.&nbsp;
But he could actually lose votes by going and standing there like a piñata, taking a verbal bashing over a bill that’s actually not his.&nbsp;
He’s better off leaving the defending to the guy who’s actually responsible for the bill, David Seymour, who says he is going.&nbsp;
So Luxon I think can say he’s done enough, he's been there two years in a row already, he’s shown respect and defended his corner and he’s not being made to feel welcome.&nbsp;
He’s been threatened.&nbsp;
Right-minded people will absolutely, I think, understand why he may not want to go and why he frankly shouldn't.&nbsp;

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Luxon has made the right call re Waitangi

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/fe0495ca-fb3a-410f-af78-b24b0158f97e/transcript

There’s an expectation that weakness in the last economic quarter is behind the country's slump. 

Stats NZ reports gross domestic product dropped 1% in the September quarter.  

We're now in our deepest recession since the Covid-driven slump of 2020.  

Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Heather du Plessis-Allan that the grind the country has been experiencing throughout the year is now showing up a bit more fully than in the last GDP numbers. 

He says one thing that stood out was the recognition of the cutbacks in the public sector, which weren’t being fully captured in the figures from three months ago. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

There’s an expectation that weakness in the last economic quarter is behind the country's slump.&nbsp;
Stats NZ reports gross domestic product dropped 1% in the September quarter. &nbsp;
We're now in our deepest recession since the Covid-driven slump of 2020. &nbsp;
Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Heather du Plessis-Allan that the grind the country has been experiencing throughout the year is now showing up a bit more fully than in the last GDP numbers.&nbsp;
He says one thing that stood out was the recognition of the cutbacks in the public sector, which weren’t being fully captured in the figures from three months ago.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Michael Gordon: Westpac Senior Economist on the latest GDP figures, economy

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9cd5995d-477f-48de-b52f-b24b015781f6/transcript

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 20th of December, the terrible economic news continues to get worse with the significant GDP drop and New Zealand is officially back in a recession.  

Liam Lawson has finally been given the Red Bull seat the F1 world knew was already his, so commentator and former McLaren race team member Bob McMurray joined Heather du Plessis-Allan to share his thoughts. 

Trish Sherson and Tim Wilson joined Heather to Wrap the Year in the final segment of 2024. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 20th of December, the terrible economic news continues to get worse with the <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/michael-reddell-former-reserve-bank-economist-on-the-likely-way-the-reserve-bank-will-respond-to-the-drop-in-the-gdp/">significant GDP drop</a> and New Zealand is officially back in a recession. &nbsp;
Liam Lawson has finally been given the Red Bull seat the F1 world knew was already his, so commentator and former McLaren race team member <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/bob-mcmurray-formula-1-commentator-on-liam-lawson-claiming-red-bull-racings-second-seat-for-2025/">Bob McMurray</a> joined Heather du Plessis-Allan to share his thoughts.&nbsp;
Trish Sherson and Tim Wilson joined Heather to Wrap the Year in the final segment of 2024.&nbsp;
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 20 December 2024 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/32b9bbec-c59f-4fec-9da0-b24b014c3725/transcript

Michael Reddell: Former Reserve Bank Economist on the likely way the Reserve Bank will respond to the drop in the GDP

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