Unemployment is expected to be up today, and it's thought to be just the beginning. 

Stats NZ will release the numbers for the first three months of the year around 10:45 this morning. 

The rate for the final quarter of last year was 4%.

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking that the labour market tends to lag behind.

He said that what we’re seeing now is the last bit of a residual strength, but there are signs it will be weakening from here.

LISTEN ABOVE  

Unemployment is expected to be up today, and it's thought to be just the beginning.  
Stats NZ will release the numbers for the first three months of the year around 10:45 this morning.  
The rate for the final quarter of last year was 4%. 
ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking that the labour market tends to lag behind. 
He said that what we’re seeing now is the last bit of a residual strength, but there are signs it will be weakening from here. 
LISTEN ABOVE

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the expected rise to the unemployment figure

World leaders are directing US$50 billion worth of interest from frozen Russian assets towards Ukraine. 

The funding was announced at today's G7 summit in Italy as a signal to Russia it cannot win the war by depleting Ukraine's resources. 

US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also announced a bilateral security agreement. 

Zelenskyy's outlined the details of the agreement, noting it includes a long-requested shipments of F16 fighter jets. 

He says it clearly states the US supports Ukraine's efforts to win the war.

LISTEN ABOVE

World leaders are directing US$50 billion worth of interest from frozen Russian assets towards Ukraine.  
The funding was announced at today's G7 summit in Italy as a signal to Russia it cannot win the war by depleting Ukraine's resources.  
US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also announced a bilateral security agreement.  
Zelenskyy's outlined the details of the agreement, noting it includes a long-requested shipments of F16 fighter jets.  
He says it clearly states the US supports Ukraine's efforts to win the war. 
LISTEN ABOVE

Richard Arnold: US Correspondent on the G7 funding for Ukraine and the deal between Biden and Zelenskyy

$211 billion. That's a lot of money.

It is what it will cost Australia in lost productivity and revenue as a result of their Government panicking over reaction to the mass arrival of people via immigration.

Such was the panic, they started capping numbers. In capping numbers, they appeared to have made a mess of it.

If you follow Australian politics they make a mess of a lot of stuff, but that’s another story and one to watch later this year if they go to the polls and the Albanese Government turns out to be a one-term.

But by capping numbers they have turned immigration into a political game, not a business one.

You need immigration for skills and labour. By not meeting labour demand you curtail your growth.

It is an open question as to whether we are doing the same.

The flood gates were opened, way too late, and then because it was way too late the panic ensued and we let in all sorts of people, some of whom we wanted, or needed, but many of whom we didn’t.

It's the same reaction here - upset. There is a group it seems in all societies who are edgy about people arriving in their country. Politicians read that and react.

The Hays NZ recruitment survey out this week suggested skills gaps were still an issue here. In fact, 25% of employers said it was worse now than it has been, which is hard to fathom.

But it is nevertheless a reality and hands on deck is a very direct link to growth and I doubt anyone disputes we need growth right now.

Another question for us that Australia doesn’t appear to grapple with is around demand. Do people actually still want to come here? The truly talented and skilled have a world of choice. Are we still on their list?

Anyway, in Australia the price of playing politics is $211 billion.

So on one hand the Prime Minister keeps the punter happy who doesn’t like immigration, but on the other hand business is screaming for staff as they watch the bills mount for things they can't do.

This is where leadership comes in. Real leadership is about making the right decision, not always the popular decision.

Real leadership is about hanging tough when the screamers and moaners are at their loudest

At $211 billion ol' Albanese doesn’t look like he's the goods.

$211 billion. That's a lot of money. 
It is what it will cost Australia in lost productivity and revenue as a result of their Government panicking over reaction to the mass arrival of people via immigration. 
Such was the panic, they started capping numbers. In capping numbers, they appeared to have made a mess of it. 
If you follow Australian politics they make a mess of a lot of stuff, but that’s another story and one to watch later this year if they go to the polls and the Albanese Government turns out to be a one-term. 
But by capping numbers they have turned immigration into a political game, not a business one. 
You need immigration for skills and labour. By not meeting labour demand you curtail your growth. 
It is an open question as to whether we are doing the same. 
The flood gates were opened, way too late, and then because it was way too late the panic ensued and we let in all sorts of people, some of whom we wanted, or needed, but many of whom we didn’t. 
It's the same reaction here - upset. There is a group it seems in all societies who are edgy about people arriving in their country. Politicians read that and react. 
The Hays NZ recruitment survey out this week suggested skills gaps were still an issue here. In fact, 25% of employers said it was worse now than it has been, which is hard to fathom. 
But it is nevertheless a reality and hands on deck is a very direct link to growth and I doubt anyone disputes we need growth right now. 
Another question for us that Australia doesn’t appear to grapple with is around demand. Do people actually still want to come here? The truly talented and skilled have a world of choice. Are we still on their list? 
Anyway, in Australia the price of playing politics is $211 billion. 
So on one hand the Prime Minister keeps the punter happy who doesn’t like immigration, but on the other hand business is screaming for staff as they watch the bills mount for things they can't do. 
This is where leadership comes in. Real leadership is about making the right decision, not always the popular decision. 
Real leadership is about hanging tough when the screamers and moaners are at their loudest 
At $211 billion ol' Albanese doesn’t look like he's the goods.

Mike's Minute: Hopefully we don't follow Australia re immigration

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.



The Warriors: 8/10

Three on the bounce and looking better by the week. Melbourne at home this week. Come on! This is our year!



Farmers and the ETS: 8/10

Good, old fashion common sense.



Oil and gas: 7/10

Some more good, old fashioned common sense. Yes, we want to help the climate, but there's no point if the lights don’t work.



Banks: 6/10

This is fertile ground and maybe the pollies go where the Commerce Commission won't, or hasn’t. As it stands in the PR battle, I'm not sure the banks are currently on the right side of this.



Fieldays: 8/10

A reminder of what makes this country tick.



Tourism: 4/10

Someone high up needs to wake up to this. 73% of where we were five years ago is a straight up and down failure and we need to ask why.



120kmh: 7/10

The Government wants to hear from us on increasing the speed limit. I say yyyyeeeeaaaah baby!



LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 
 
The Warriors: 8/10 
Three on the bounce and looking better by the week. Melbourne at home this week. Come on! This is our year! 
 
Farmers and the ETS: 8/10 
Good, old fashion common sense. 
 
Oil and gas: 7/10 
Some more good, old fashioned common sense. Yes, we want to help the climate, but there's no point if the lights don’t work. 
 
Banks: 6/10 
This is fertile ground and maybe the pollies go where the Commerce Commission won't, or hasn’t. As it stands in the PR battle, I'm not sure the banks are currently on the right side of this. 
 
Fieldays: 8/10 
A reminder of what makes this country tick. 
 
Tourism: 4/10 
Someone high up needs to wake up to this. 73% of where we were five years ago is a straight up and down failure and we need to ask why. 
 
120kmh: 7/10 
The Government wants to hear from us on increasing the speed limit. I say yyyyeeeeaaaah baby! 
 
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the expected rise to the unemployment figure

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