Last year's recession is still being felt in the job market. 

Stats NZ data —due out this morning— is expected to show unemployment reached a nine-year high of 5.3% in the June quarter. 

The economy's been back in growth since the latter part of last year. 

But ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking the economy has lost about 40,000 jobs since the late 2023 peak. 

More full-time roles have been lost than part time, he explained, and the labour market is getting that much weaker.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

Last year's recession is still being felt in the job market.&nbsp;
Stats NZ data —due out this morning— is expected to show unemployment reached a nine-year high of 5.3% in the June quarter.&nbsp;
The economy's been back in growth since the latter part of last year.&nbsp;
But ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking the economy has lost about 40,000 jobs since the late 2023 peak.&nbsp;
More full-time roles have been lost than part time, he explained, and the labour market is getting that much weaker. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the employment rate being expected to hit 5.3%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/257e0091-ac9c-469b-91dd-b330015a96d9/transcript

Yet another “advice ignored” story.

The trouble with advice is it's not automatically right and more often than not the media seems to think it counts for something, hence their obsession with coverage.

The latest example is Paul Goldsmith ignored advice around move-on orders.

The media plays these advice stories up because it suits their increasingly obvious bias against the Government.

But when you read the advice it’s a mixture of the vague, wrong and made up.

The best part is the bit that says evidence of a growing public disorder problem is limited. Are they serious?

They obviously work from home and looked out their kitchen window at morning tea time and didn’t see any disturbances.

Is there a person who has walked down Queen Street in Auckland, Courtenay Place in Wellington or their environs and not seen the trouble and upset the wonks can't see?

They go on - police data showing prosecutions for such offences has declined in recent years. I repeat, are they serious?

Why do you reckon that is? Just because you didn’t prosecute doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

They also, in a very political way, go on to lump all homeless or rough sleepers into the same category. The media does the same thing.

It makes the very obvious and deliberate mistake of assuming all homeless or rough sleepers are the same. And like anyone else, they are not.

The move-on orders are not about anyone and everyone. They are about the ones who cause trouble, who abuse the shopper or stop the proprietor getting into their business.

As far as I can see, the aforementioned isn't actually mentioned in the advice.

At some point the wonks might want to ask about rights. As much as you might want to argue for the right for a drug-crazed lunatic to be able to say what they want and do what they want, where they want, you might like to wonder if a punter should be able to go about their business unhindered.

Out here in the real world the answer is, yes.

Hence the Government move-on move reads the mood of the community, and is welcome, and will be effective, and, like the ram-raids and shop smashing's, will be dealt with.

The question left is if that’s the quality of advice ministers get, I see some reasonably large and obvious savings to be made.

Yet another “advice ignored” story.
The trouble with advice is it's not automatically right and more often than not the media seems to think it counts for something, hence their obsession with coverage.
The latest example is Paul Goldsmith ignored advice around move-on orders.
The media plays these advice stories up because it suits their increasingly obvious bias against the Government.
But when you read the advice it’s a mixture of the vague, wrong and made up.
The best part is the bit that says evidence of a growing public disorder problem is limited. Are they serious?
They obviously work from home and looked out their kitchen window at morning tea time and didn’t see any disturbances.
Is there a person who has walked down Queen Street in Auckland, Courtenay Place in Wellington or their environs and not seen the trouble and upset the wonks can't see?
They go on - police data showing prosecutions for such offences has declined in recent years. I repeat, are they serious?
Why do you reckon that is? Just because you didn’t prosecute doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.
They also, in a very political way, go on to lump all homeless or rough sleepers into the same category. The media does the same thing.
It makes the very obvious and deliberate mistake of assuming all homeless or rough sleepers are the same. And like anyone else, they are not.
The move-on orders are not about anyone and everyone. They are about the ones who cause trouble, who abuse the shopper or stop the proprietor getting into their business.
As far as I can see, the aforementioned isn't actually mentioned in the advice.
At some point the wonks might want to ask about rights. As much as you might want to argue for the right for a drug-crazed lunatic to be able to say what they want and do what they want, where they want, you might like to wonder if a punter should be able to go about their business unhindered.
Out here in the real world the answer is, yes.
Hence the Government move-on move reads the mood of the community, and is welcome, and will be effective, and, like the ram-raids and shop smashing's, will be dealt with.
The question left is if that’s the quality of advice ministers get, I see some reasonably large and obvious savings to be made.

Mike's Minute: Is the Government ignoring advice for a reason?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/3f190747-ce53-46a4-8d8e-b40e0136c279/transcript

We have good news on housing. 

1) It's still a buyers' market. 

2) A good chunk of the buyers are first timers. 

It’s the debate we should at least acknowledge has been, for now, partially solved. 

Not long back we were where Australia currently is; young people couldn't afford a house and, with plenty of emotion, it was suggested they never would. 

That wasn’t actually factually true then and it most certainly isn't now. 

What is helping is two things: 

1) The slow rise of prices as we move out of the recessions and into recovery. The capacity for the wider economy to grow without major house price increases is actually a good debate, or question, but one for another day. 

2) Lending. There is a lot of it for first timers. 

Money attached to small deposits is booming. The reason that is happening is because the Reserve Bank loosened the debt-to-income rules as well as the LVR's. 

So, with less than 20% you can get into a home. 

Australia has a better system. The Government backs some people into homes with 5%. It's income related and in Australia there is an attached argument around price increases, given they aren't building houses and immigration is booming. 

But here we don’t have those problems, sadly. But of the two problems young people face (one being the deposit and the other being the price of a house and therefore the mortgage) it’s the deposit that is the biggest hurdle. 

20% of $800,000 grand is $160,000. Saving that sort of money is ruinous to dreams, so the sooner we get past that as a hurdle the better. 

A mortgage can be managed. But what is most important about all of this is the indisputable truth that housing is a Kiwi dream, if not an obsession. A house is a retirement plan and the arguments around putting your money elsewhere and spreading the basket falls largely, rightly or wrongly, on deaf ears. 

If I had my way 5% would be the key, 10% max. If young people have been locked out of housing, it's not the price that’s been the killer, it's been the deposit. 

The Reserve Bank rules have been, yet again, another of their mistakes. These news stats are hopefully partial rectification. 

We have good news on housing.&nbsp;
1) It's still a buyers' market.&nbsp;
2) A good chunk of the buyers are first timers.&nbsp;
It’s the debate we should at least acknowledge has been, for now, partially solved.&nbsp;
Not long back we were where Australia currently is; young people couldn't afford a house and, with plenty of emotion, it was suggested they never would.&nbsp;
That wasn’t actually factually true then and it most certainly isn't now.&nbsp;
What is helping is two things:&nbsp;
1) The slow rise of prices as we move out of the recessions and into recovery. The capacity for the wider economy to grow without major house price increases is actually a good debate, or question, but one for another day.&nbsp;
2) Lending. There is a lot of it for first timers.&nbsp;
Money attached to small deposits is booming. The reason that is happening is because the Reserve Bank loosened the debt-to-income rules as well as the LVR's.&nbsp;
So, with less than 20% you can get into a home.&nbsp;
Australia has a better system. The Government backs some people into homes with 5%. It's income related and in Australia there is an attached argument around price increases, given they aren't building houses and immigration is booming.&nbsp;
But here we don’t have those problems, sadly. But of the two problems young people face (one being the deposit and the other being the price of a house and therefore the mortgage) it’s the deposit that is the biggest hurdle.&nbsp;
20% of $800,000 grand is $160,000. Saving that sort of money is ruinous to dreams, so the sooner we get past that as a hurdle the better.&nbsp;
A mortgage can be managed. But what is most important about all of this is the indisputable truth that housing is a Kiwi dream, if not an obsession. A house is a retirement plan and the arguments around putting your money elsewhere and spreading the basket falls largely, rightly or wrongly, on deaf ears.&nbsp;
If I had my way 5% would be the key, 10% max. If young people have been locked out of housing, it's not the price that’s been the killer, it's been the deposit.&nbsp;
The Reserve Bank rules have been, yet again, another of their mistakes. These news stats are hopefully partial rectification.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: We have good news on housing

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/ed23df29-72da-4e21-920c-b40c014f8d45/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

The Warriors: 8/10 

Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight. 

 

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10 

She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party. 

 

The Covid report: 6/10 

Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry? 

 

Oil: 1/10 

If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel. 

 

Trump: 2/10 

It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/richie-barnett-former-kiwis-captain-reviews-warriors-v-roosters-previews-raiders-clash/">The Warriors: 8/10</a>&nbsp;
Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10&nbsp;
She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/chris-hipkins-labour-leader-on-the-findings-of-the-second-phase-of-the-covid-19-inquiry/">The Covid report: 6/10</a>&nbsp;
Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry?&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Oil: 1/10&nbsp;
If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/richard-arnold-us-correspondent-on-latest-from-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east/">Trump: 2/10</a>&nbsp;
It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: The Covid report tells us what we already knew

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a03198f2-efec-4645-b36d-b40b015e0402/transcript

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the employment rate being expected to hit 5.3%

In 1 playlist(s)

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips