A shinier job market outlook, with growth ticking up.  

The number of filled jobs lifted a seasonally adjusted 0.2% from July to August and 0.9% from last year.  

Gaps between sectors are starting to close, with gains for industries like construction and retail after months of decline.  

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking the encouraging thing about the data is it shows demand for labour is still there. 

He says if it weren't for the Middle East conflict, the economy would be absolutely booming and job growth would be much stronger. 

But, Smith says, it suggests the unemployment rate will be heading downwards from here. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

A shinier job market outlook, with growth ticking up. &nbsp;
The number of filled jobs lifted a seasonally adjusted 0.2% from July to August and 0.9% from last year. &nbsp;
Gaps between sectors are starting to close, with gains for industries like construction and retail after months of decline. &nbsp;
ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking the encouraging thing about the data is it shows demand for labour is still there.&nbsp;
He says if it weren't for the Middle East conflict, the economy would be absolutely booming and job growth would be much stronger.&nbsp;
But, Smith says, it suggests the unemployment rate will be heading downwards from here.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on annual job growth hitting 0.9%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/dd3b4429-90b9-493c-b571-b4d3014d556f/transcript

We have Ruth Richardson to thank for today. 

She was the architect of the Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994, what today is called the PREFU – the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update. 

If you don’t remember it, it heralded a change in approach that seemed to me at the time as significant, if not profound. 

Elections were crap shoots. It was a different time. If you think most people's understanding of basic economics is limited, 1994 was a Wild West. 

Many years before, Muldoon had talked about the voter not knowing a budget deficit if they tripped over it in the street. 

He was right, as well as arrogant. 

By 1994 I'm not overly sure it was a lot different. So the idea was we could at least see what shape we were in and whether the ensuing promises made any sense. 

Here we are over 30 years later and the PREFU has a critical role for both major parties today. 

For National it's a report card, a credibility check. It's the very thing (almost the singular thing) that this election is being fought on – have they done enough economically to convince us they need another term? 

For Labour it's equally critical. There's a fortune in promises, in fact $18 billion worth, including the seemingly gargantuan and magical pay equity promise worth at least 12 of those billions. 

"Wait for the PREFU," we have been told, as if whatever is revealed today will answer any doubters. 

I doubt it will. I think Labour today, to some degree, will be badly exposed. 

It will be a contest today between the state of the place, and therefore the Government's economic credentials, and the "state of the place" and therefore the cold, hard truth there isn't $18 billion just lying around looking to be spent. 

But most importantly, thanks to Ruth Richardson, is the fact that it will all be there. 

The fiscal journey of the past three years, the fiscal cliffs, the debt, the cuts, the promises, the payments, the delivery, the growth, (or lack of it) and the outlook. 

They say every election has never before been as important as the current one and they say it's always about the economy. 

Both are true, and I feel never more true than 2026. 

We have Ruth Richardson to thank for today.&nbsp;
She was the architect of the Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994, what today is called the PREFU – the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update.&nbsp;
If you don’t remember it, it heralded a change in approach that seemed to me at the time as significant, if not profound.&nbsp;
Elections were crap shoots. It was a different time. If you think most people's understanding of basic economics is limited, 1994 was a Wild West.&nbsp;
Many years before, Muldoon had talked about the voter not knowing a budget deficit if they tripped over it in the street.&nbsp;
He was right, as well as arrogant.&nbsp;
By 1994 I'm not overly sure it was a lot different. So the idea was we could at least see what shape we were in and whether the ensuing promises made any sense.&nbsp;
Here we are over 30 years later and the PREFU has a critical role for both major parties today.&nbsp;
For National it's a report card, a credibility check. It's the very thing (almost the singular thing) that this election is being fought on – have they done enough economically to convince us they need another term?&nbsp;
For Labour it's equally critical. There's a fortune in promises, in fact $18 billion worth, including the seemingly gargantuan and magical pay equity promise worth at least 12 of those billions.&nbsp;
"Wait for the PREFU," we have been told, as if whatever is revealed today will answer any doubters.&nbsp;
I doubt it will. I think Labour today, to some degree, will be badly exposed.&nbsp;
It will be a contest today between the state of the place, and therefore the Government's economic credentials, and the "state of the place" and therefore the cold, hard truth there isn't $18 billion just lying around looking to be spent.&nbsp;
But most importantly, thanks to Ruth Richardson, is the fact that it will all be there.&nbsp;
The fiscal journey of the past three years, the fiscal cliffs, the debt, the cuts, the promises, the payments, the delivery, the growth, (or lack of it) and the outlook.&nbsp;
They say every election has never before been as important as the current one and they say it's always about the economy.&nbsp;
Both are true, and I feel never more true than 2026.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Why the PREFU is important

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/39f73801-53bc-4bf6-b5bc-b4d30161366d/transcript

For the first time, a novel in the Reacherverse will not be about Reacher himself. 

Frances Neagley is getting her time in the spotlight, with both a new spinoff television show, and two new thrillers focused on her. 

Author Lee Child is thrilled by the success and popularity the screen adaptation of his work has found – especially since it's now getting a spinoff. 

"I'm so pleased about the spinoff because Maria [Sten] is just fantastic," Child told Mike Hosking. 

"She's a great actor, but she's a lovely person as well." 

In fact, it was Sten's performance and the writing of the character in the show that led to the new series being written at all, as it filled in the gaps in Neagley's character Child was struggling with. 

"I never really developed her as a character, you know, to me she lived in the present. I had no idea of her past, I had no idea of her future," he told Hosking.  

"They answered the questions that I couldn't answer for myself," 

The first book, 'Zero Margin', is being co-written with Yasmin Angoe, a critically acclaimed thriller author, in order to give the Neagley series a distinctive voice from Reacher.  

"I've seen the first draft, it's great, and I know that the final draft is even better ... so I'm looking forward to reading it."  

LISTEN ABOVE 

For the first time, a novel in the Reacherverse will not be about Reacher himself.&nbsp;
Frances Neagley is getting her time in the spotlight, with both a new spinoff television show, and two new thrillers focused on her.&nbsp;
Author Lee Child is thrilled by the success and popularity the screen adaptation of his work has found – especially since it's now getting a spinoff.&nbsp;
"I'm so pleased about the spinoff because Maria [Sten] is just fantastic," Child told Mike Hosking.&nbsp;
"She's a great actor, but she's a lovely person as well."&nbsp;
In fact, it was Sten's performance and the writing of the character in the show that led to the new series being written at all, as it filled in the gaps in Neagley's character Child was struggling with.&nbsp;
"I never really developed her as a character, you know, to me she lived in the present. I had no idea of her past, I had no idea of her future," he told Hosking. &nbsp;
"They answered the questions that I couldn't answer for myself,"&nbsp;
The first book, 'Zero Margin', is being co-written with Yasmin Angoe, a critically acclaimed thriller author, in order to give the Neagley series a distinctive voice from Reacher. &nbsp;
"I've seen the first draft, it's great, and I know that the final draft is even better ... so I'm looking forward to reading it." &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Lee Child: Author on the success of the Reacher TV show, Neagley spinoff show and new book series focused on her

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d9162d16-378d-4506-b01e-b4d3015c2c59/transcript

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday the 29th of September, it's a big day for both parties as we get the PREFU numbers. It's the day to see if National has economic credibility and if Labour's election policies add up. 

There's a lot of angst around red meat in the country and why it costs so much while exports make record returns, so it's time to address some claims with Special Trade Envoy Nathan Guy. 

Reacher author Lee Child is back to talk about the success of the TV show, the spinoff Neagley, and the novels coming to the Reacher universe that doesn't involve Reacher. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday the 29th of September, it's a big day for both parties as <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/steven-joyce-former-finance-minister-previews-the-pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update/">we get the PREFU numbers</a>. It's the day to see if National has economic credibility and if Labour's election policies add up.&nbsp;
There's a lot of angst around red meat in the country and why it costs so much while exports make record returns, so it's time to address some claims with <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/nathan-guy-special-agricultural-trade-envoy-on-red-meat-exports-surging-23-in-august/">Special Trade Envoy Nathan Guy</a>.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/lee-child-author-on-the-success-of-the-reacher-tv-show-neagley-spinoff-show-and-new-book-series-focused-on-her/">Reacher author Lee Child</a> is back to talk about the success of the TV show, the spinoff Neagley, and the novels coming to the Reacher universe that doesn't involve Reacher.&nbsp;
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 29 September 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/48f93471-0048-4de6-9a25-b4d3014cf791/transcript

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on annual job growth hitting 0.9%

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