New Zealand's economic recovery could be put at risk by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.  

Westpac modelling shows if it was to stay closed for a month, it would put inflation over 4% and knock half a percent off GDP. 

Senior Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking we're much more vulnerable than Australia when it comes to energy.  

He says we only have a few weeks of key petroleum products sitting in the tanks, and after that we’re relying on boats turning up to meet our needs. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

New Zealand's economic recovery could be put at risk by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. &nbsp;
Westpac modelling shows if it was to stay closed for a month, it would put inflation over 4% and knock half a percent off GDP.&nbsp;
Senior Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking we're much more vulnerable than Australia when it comes to energy. &nbsp;
He says we only have a few weeks of key petroleum products sitting in the tanks, and after that we’re relying on boats turning up to meet our needs.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

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The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Kelly Eckhold: Westpac Senior Economist on the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East on NZ's economic recovery

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/0018f27d-6b31-4f5e-bded-b4030146bdf3/transcript

I can help Steve Abel. 

Steve is the Green's agriculture bloke and he wants an urgent inquiry into the Wattie’s and Heinz mess in Hawkes Bay. 

He is wasting his time. Not because he shouldn’t be concerned, because he should. We should all be concerned. 

But the answers he seeks are already readily available. 

He asks about four main things: the regulatory environment, energy costs, foreign owner indifference, and anti-competitive behaviour from the supermarkets. 

The website Newsroom wrote a solid piece about all this several weeks ago in which it was broadly concluded the troubles in Hawke’s Bay have been coming for a decade, so some late, breaking alarmism via yet another committee addresses nothing. 

Costs in this country are too high. I refer you to Paul Conway's speech last week to a bunch of financial operators. We are unproductive and have been for years. 

Supermarkets have indeed played a part. The home brand scenario damaged the more premium brands and Wattie's etc have suffered because of it. 

Now, is that anti-competitive? Or offering more competition? Does the punter want choice and price range? I would have thought yes. 

On the energy costs, Wattie's and Heinz have both spoken to this. Our energy costs are ruinous. Gas, or lack of it, has killed a lot of manufacturing. The Greens might like to ask themselves why they got obsessed with solar panels and banned gas before there were enough solar panels to cover the energy gaps. 

The old regulatory environment is an interesting one. Labour and Nicola Willis have jawboned rules and regulations and watchdogs and Commerce Commission investigations, but to what avail? Nothing has changed, which either means there is nothing to change, or they are useless. 

Foreign owner indifference, I would suggest, that sounds a bit xenophobic. Yes, I know what he means – could a massive player in Detroit cut ties without losing sleep in little old New Zealand? Sure. 

But no one who invests and runs businesses does so with indifference. 

Between the dumping, the cheap stuff consumers prefer, the size of our market, and the ruinous cost of energy, it's all there as a combustible recipe to blow up a lot of business models. 

Peas in a bag and peaches in a tin are the victims. The inquiry is not needed. 

I can help Steve Abel.&nbsp;
Steve is the Green's agriculture bloke and he wants an urgent inquiry into the Wattie’s and Heinz mess in Hawkes Bay.&nbsp;
He is wasting his time. Not because he shouldn’t be concerned, because he should. We should all be concerned.&nbsp;
But the answers he seeks are already readily available.&nbsp;
He asks about four main things: the regulatory environment, energy costs, foreign owner indifference, and anti-competitive behaviour from the supermarkets.&nbsp;
The website Newsroom wrote a solid piece about all this several weeks ago in which it was broadly concluded the troubles in Hawke’s Bay have been coming for a decade, so some late, breaking alarmism via yet another committee addresses nothing.&nbsp;
Costs in this country are too high. I refer you to Paul Conway's speech last week to a bunch of financial operators. We are unproductive and have been for years.&nbsp;
Supermarkets have indeed played a part. The home brand scenario damaged the more premium brands and Wattie's etc have suffered because of it.&nbsp;
Now, is that anti-competitive? Or offering more competition? Does the punter want choice and price range? I would have thought yes.&nbsp;
On the energy costs, Wattie's and Heinz have both spoken to this. Our energy costs are ruinous. Gas, or lack of it, has killed a lot of manufacturing. The Greens might like to ask themselves why they got obsessed with solar panels and banned gas before there were enough solar panels to cover the energy gaps.&nbsp;
The old regulatory environment is an interesting one. Labour and Nicola Willis have jawboned rules and regulations and watchdogs and Commerce Commission investigations, but to what avail? Nothing has changed, which either means there is nothing to change, or they are useless.&nbsp;
Foreign owner indifference, I would suggest, that sounds a bit xenophobic. Yes, I know what he means – could a massive player in Detroit cut ties without losing sleep in little old New Zealand? Sure.&nbsp;
But no one who invests and runs businesses does so with indifference.&nbsp;
Between the dumping, the cheap stuff consumers prefer, the size of our market, and the ruinous cost of energy, it's all there as a combustible recipe to blow up a lot of business models.&nbsp;
Peas in a bag and peaches in a tin are the victims. The inquiry is not needed.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: I can help Steve Abel

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/757a5a8f-464e-49a4-9575-b4210153f72c/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

Pakistan: 6/10 

Mystery of the week. Did they host talks? Were there any talks? What's the talks v BS ratio? 

 

Oil: 7/10 

Specifically, the Government's handling. Tickets, swaps, deals, and unsolicited offers –  this looks and feels like it's in the hands of adults. 

 

Labour and India: 3/10 

This is why we can be grateful they are not in office for the war. They do little but stall and carp. The day you are against free trade you are basically not a New Zealander. 

 

Booze: 7/10 

Nice one Kieran, as the kid from the Wairarapa brings the modern world to Easter. 

 

Allbirds: 3/10 

It’s a sad story of a dream that was destined for a troubled end. Shoes are about fashion, not feels, and style, not vibes. Only a very small percentage of people are ever prepared to look rude while saving the planet. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Pakistan: 6/10&nbsp;
Mystery of the week. Did they host talks? Were there any talks? What's the talks v BS ratio?&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Oil: 7/10&nbsp;
Specifically, the Government's handling. Tickets, swaps, deals, and unsolicited offers – &nbsp;this looks and feels like it's in the hands of adults.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Labour and India: 3/10&nbsp;
This is why we can be grateful they are not in office for the war. They do little but stall and carp. The day you are against free trade you are basically not a New Zealander.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Booze: 7/10&nbsp;
Nice one Kieran, as the kid from the Wairarapa brings the modern world to Easter.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Allbirds: 3/10&nbsp;
It’s a sad story of a dream that was destined for a troubled end. Shoes are about fashion, not feels, and style, not vibes. Only a very small percentage of people are ever prepared to look rude while saving the planet.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: Kieran McAnulty is bringing the modern world to Easter

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/403c40cc-25f8-470f-a4ed-b41f016efde0/transcript

It’s a bit early given it's a short week, but at four and a half-ish weeks into Operation Epic Fury, there's a reason to be depressed and a reason to be hopeful. 

To the bad news first. 

This hasn’t been a great week for the Americans. They have been left with talks that may or may not be happening and a lot of rhetoric that sounds like last week's rhetoric – "we've won", "there is nothing left", and "we could leave anytime". 

Except, the missiles that fall on Israel seem to indicate that for a place that have been bombed to flatness, they keep finding things to fire and that’s before you got to the hacking of Kash Patel's phone, which was just plain embarrassing. 

Trump's demeanour didn’t help either. A winner doesn’t whine and man has he whined a lot this week, to the point it appears he will end the war, as predicted, but has worked up a narrative that allows him to avoid the small issue of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Which is of course why he is whining. He's cocked it up. 

One way or another, the fact that they didn’t see the Gulf states being hit and didn’t see a waterway being used as ransom will go down in US military history as yet another interventionist cock-up. 

The new timeline is a bit of a worry. 2-3 weeks fits in with the 4-6 timeline, roughly. The trouble though, if you follow Trump, is that he uses the "2-3 weeks" line a lot, on a lot of different things that, as it turns out, don’t take 2-3 weeks – almost as though he makes it up as he goes along. 

Also not great is Netanyahu, who claimed they were a bit over halfway as far as targets go, which is not 2-3 weeks, given it's been almost five. 

But to the good news – the Iranian President has said they will stop if they get a guarantee they are not attacked again. And this is part of the exit strategy. 

A bit of back and forward, nuclear material cleared, regime largely gone, some sort of rebuild, money sorted, and it's kind of got a Gaza 2.0 vibe about it. 

And then of course 2pm this afternoon is the address to the world. "An important update". Does that have the makings of the end? Let's see. 

But the driving forces are the driving forces that have been at play all along – petrol in America costs too much, the cost of living is up, hiring is down, recession fears are up and the midterms are coming. 

As we said last week, Trump might be mad but on the political survival front self-interest is a finely honed skill of his. 

It’s a bit early given it's a short week, but at four and a half-ish weeks into Operation Epic Fury, there's a reason to be depressed and a reason to be hopeful.&nbsp;
To the bad news first.&nbsp;
This hasn’t been a great week for the Americans. They have been left with talks that may or may not be happening and a lot of rhetoric that sounds like last week's rhetoric – "we've won", "there is nothing left", and "we could leave anytime".&nbsp;
Except, the missiles that fall on Israel seem to indicate that for a place that have been bombed to flatness, they keep finding things to fire and that’s before you got to the hacking of Kash Patel's phone, which was just plain embarrassing.&nbsp;
Trump's demeanour didn’t help either. A winner doesn’t whine and man has he whined a lot this week, to the point it appears he will end the war, as predicted, but has worked up a narrative that allows him to avoid the small issue of the Strait of Hormuz.&nbsp;
Which is of course why he is whining. He's cocked it up.&nbsp;
One way or another, the fact that they didn’t see the Gulf states being hit and didn’t see a waterway being used as ransom will go down in US military history as yet another interventionist cock-up.&nbsp;
The new timeline is a bit of a worry. 2-3 weeks fits in with the 4-6 timeline, roughly. The trouble though, if you follow Trump, is that he uses the "2-3 weeks" line a lot, on a lot of different things that, as it turns out, don’t take 2-3 weeks – almost as though he makes it up as he goes along.&nbsp;
Also not great is Netanyahu, who claimed they were a bit over halfway as far as targets go, which is not 2-3 weeks, given it's been almost five.&nbsp;
But to the good news – the Iranian President has said they will stop if they get a guarantee they are not attacked again. And this is part of the exit strategy.&nbsp;
A bit of back and forward, nuclear material cleared, regime largely gone, some sort of rebuild, money sorted, and it's kind of got a Gaza 2.0 vibe about it.&nbsp;
And then of course 2pm this afternoon is the address to the world. "An important update". Does that have the makings of the end? Let's see.&nbsp;
But the driving forces are the driving forces that have been at play all along – petrol in America costs too much, the cost of living is up, hiring is down, recession fears are up and the midterms are coming.&nbsp;
As we said last week, Trump might be mad but on the political survival front self-interest is a finely honed skill of his.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Could this be the beginning of the end of the war?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b5fe5d56-be6b-423b-9b4c-b41f0158f510/transcript

Kelly Eckhold: Westpac Senior Economist on the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East on NZ's economic recovery

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