Unemployment's expected to peak in the middle of the year.  

Stats NZ will release the labour market data for the final quarter of last year at 10.45 this morning. 

It's widely thought the unemployment rate will rise to about 5.1%.  

ANZ economist Henry Russell told Mike Hosking it's a lag statistic, so we'll see last year's economy reflected in the unemployment numbers today and into this year. 

He says their current forecast is for it to peak at 5.5% in the middle of this year. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Unemployment's expected to peak in the middle of the year. &nbsp;
Stats NZ will release the labour market data for the final quarter of last year at 10.45 this morning.&nbsp;
It's widely thought the unemployment rate will rise to about 5.1%. &nbsp;
ANZ economist Henry Russell told Mike Hosking it's a lag statistic, so we'll see last year's economy reflected in the unemployment numbers today and into this year.&nbsp;
He says their current forecast is for it to peak at 5.5% in the middle of this year.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Henry Russell: ANZ Economist says unemployment is expected to rise to over 5%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d62d0eed-948f-4ce6-ac5c-b27a014b60a8/transcript

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 29th of May, we got the trades’ reaction to the Budget and an economist’s thoughts on what the books might look like in a couple years’ time. 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Winston Peters both relay their wins from Budget Day. 

And Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson discuss Mike's holiday, the Music Awards, and Oura Rings. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 29th of May, we got the <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/alan-mcdonald-employers-and-manufacturers-association-head-of-advocacy-on-the-focus-on-trades-in-budget-2026/">trades’ reaction</a> to the Budget and <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/brad-olsen-infometrics-principal-economist-on-budget-2026-return-to-surplus-coming-a-year-earlier-than-expected/">an economist’s thoughts</a> on what the books might look like in a couple years’ time.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/nicola-willis-finance-minister-on-the-reaction-to-budget-2026-the-levy-on-banks/">Finance Minister Nicola Willis</a> and <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/winston-peters-minister-for-rail-and-foreign-affairs-on-what-he-got-across-the-line-in-the-budget-the-situation-in-the-middle-east/">Winston Peters</a> both relay their wins from Budget Day.&nbsp;
And Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson discuss Mike's holiday, the Music Awards, and Oura Rings.&nbsp;
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 29 May 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/219716eb-d78b-4331-8f53-b458015d653f/transcript

It’s an uncertain future for farmers, with global events making it harder to predict the milk price.  

Fonterra's midpoint payout forecast for the current season is $9.70.  

It's slightly up for next season, at $9.75, but it's signalling that could be as low as $8 or as high as $11.  

Dairy NZ Chief Executive Campbell Parker told Mike Hosking the gap is mirroring the current volatility, with the top end of last year about $10. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

It’s an uncertain future for farmers, with global events making it harder to predict the milk price. &nbsp;
Fonterra's midpoint payout forecast for the current season is $9.70. &nbsp;
It's slightly up for next season, at $9.75, but it's signalling that could be as low as $8 or as high as $11. &nbsp;
Dairy NZ Chief Executive Campbell Parker told Mike Hosking the gap is mirroring the current volatility, with the top end of last year about $10.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Campbell Parker: Dairy NZ CEO on the new dairy season, wide milk price range

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/07f22c28-19b2-4719-88c3-b458015ec538/transcript

There’s a view the Government's restoring the balance between university and vocational pathways. 

The Budget doubles Trades Academy places from 10,000 to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to training while at school. 

Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking it’s a full-circle moment – recognising how vital trades are in a tech-driven economy. 

He says AI can't build houses, and so many young people are coming into the workforce not ready. 

McDonald says the new Industry Skills Boards will help direct training to where demand is, as part of their role is to work with businesses and polytechs to ensure current and future gaps are filled. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

There’s a view the Government's restoring the balance between university and vocational pathways.&nbsp;
The Budget doubles Trades Academy places from 10,000 to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to training while at school.&nbsp;
Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking it’s a full-circle moment – recognising how vital trades are in a tech-driven economy.&nbsp;
He says AI can't build houses, and so many young people are coming into the workforce not ready.&nbsp;
McDonald says the new Industry Skills Boards will help direct training to where demand is, as part of their role is to work with businesses and polytechs to ensure current and future gaps are filled.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Alan McDonald: Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy on the focus on trades in Budget 2026

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/5f86b96d-91f2-4326-8bfd-b4580158731c/transcript

Henry Russell: ANZ Economist says unemployment is expected to rise to over 5%

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