Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck on the eve of polling day, but one top polling expert is picking the election for Trump. 

Trump is spending the day in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

Harris is focusing on Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state with 19 Electoral College votes. 

Polling analyst Henry Olsen told Mike Hosking he believes Trump will narrowly win more Electoral College votes. 

He says the country has shifted to the right, and Harris isn't winning enough independent voters to offset that. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck on the eve of polling day, but one top polling expert is picking the election for Trump.&nbsp;
Trump is spending the day in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.&nbsp;
Harris is focusing on Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state with 19 Electoral College votes.&nbsp;
Polling analyst Henry Olsen told Mike Hosking he believes Trump will narrowly win more Electoral College votes.&nbsp;
He says the country has shifted to the right, and Harris isn't winning enough independent voters to offset that.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Henry Olsen: Polling analyst gives his thoughts on the US Election odds, the latest polling numbers

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/3fc63003-5ce3-4039-b9a9-b21e01386c02/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

The war: 3/10 

Week three was the worst week for Trump by a mile. He asked for help, got none, and packed a sad. 

 

The Warriors: 9/10 

You literally can't start any better than they have. Plus, it's the Knights this week, so three for three. 

 

Chris Hipkins: 2/10 

Who needs that sort of crap? 

 

Fuel stations running dry: 4/10 

Hyperbole, alarmist headlines, and knobs with jerry cans do not help. 

 

Booze reform: 8/10 

Not a single bit of it doesn’t make complete and utter sense, leading to the obvious question – how can something so obvious only be getting sorted now? 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The war: 3/10&nbsp;
Week three was the worst week for Trump by a mile. He asked for help, got none, and packed a sad.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/monty-betham-former-warriors-captain-previews-the-clash-against-the-newcastle-knights/">The Warriors: 9/10</a>&nbsp;
You literally can't start any better than they have. Plus, it's the Knights this week, so three for three.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/grant-duncan-political-commentator-on-chris-hipkins-and-whether-the-public-should-know-the-details-of-a-politicians-private-life/">Chris Hipkins: 2/10</a>&nbsp;
Who needs that sort of crap?&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Fuel stations running dry: 4/10&nbsp;
Hyperbole, alarmist headlines, and knobs with jerry cans do not help.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/virginia-nicholls-alcohol-beverages-council-executive-director-on-the-governments-proposed-alcohol-law-overhaul/">Booze reform: 8/10</a>&nbsp;
Not a single bit of it doesn’t make complete and utter sense, leading to the obvious question – how can something so obvious only be getting sorted now?&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: You can't start any better than the Warriors have

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a08e9b24-d1ee-48d6-9430-b41201662200/transcript

Differing accounts on the US’ level of involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran’s gas fields.  

The tit for tat between the two is continuing with gas and oil infrastructure becoming the latest targets, Iran retaliating by hitting Israel's Haifa oil refinery.  

Global oil prices are continuing to surge.  

Donald Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's been instructed not to attack these energy sites.   

US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that Axios is reporting that one source told them the attack was coordinated between Israeli officials and the White House, whilst another says the US knew of the attack, but was not part of it. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Differing accounts on the US’ level of involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran’s gas fields. &nbsp;
The tit for tat between the two is continuing with gas and oil infrastructure becoming the latest targets, Iran retaliating by hitting Israel's Haifa oil refinery. &nbsp;
Global oil prices are continuing to surge. &nbsp;
Donald Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's been instructed not to attack these energy sites. &nbsp;&nbsp;
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that Axios is reporting that one source told them the attack was coordinated between Israeli officials and the White House, whilst another says the US knew of the attack, but was not part of it.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Richard Arnold: US Correspondent on the latest in the Middle East conflict, Israel's attack on Iran's gas fields

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/4bd8ffa5-f2ef-4dc6-b972-b412016385ab/transcript

Obviously Chris Hipkins would disagree, but Donald Trump surely wins the "crap week of the week" award, given his week has material outcomes for all of us and Hipkins’ is just a personal mess gone ugly and public. 

The war itself doesn’t appear to be any different at the end of week three than it was at the end of week two, or indeed week one. 

Every indication is Iran is being obliterated. They have three major kills and the fact we have yet to actually see and hear the new Supreme Leader indicates the suggestion he is dead, or disfigured, rings more true by the day. 

The attacks on Gulf facilities shows Iranian desperation. But the number of attacks continues to drop. 

The marines are on the way and the B2's are dropping the massive 5000kg bombs around the Strait of Hormuz to presumably clear the way for them. 

So, war wise there's nothing new to report. Trump could call it off any moment and claim victory, remembering claiming something is not always the reality. 

But, and it's a massive "but", he asked for help on the Strait and short of the French possibly helping, once it's all settled and the sun is out, he got nothing. He got worse than nothing – he got the middle finger. 

A world weary of his arrogance, threats and bullying told him to get stuffed. "It's not our problem.” 

At which point he went straight to his baby act of whining and bleating and moaning. 

The Strait is a problem and he made it so. Whether they never planned for it or thought about it doesn’t matter because they created it and his voters are paying. 

They're paying a fortune for gas, the market is sinking, the two things he cares most about (the Dow and the bloke at the bowser) aren't working for him and that’s why this thing will still end sooner rather than later. 

Small side note - when he says America doesn’t need the Strait, half of America's generics medicine comes from India. India gets their material through the Gulf. There isn't an American not on a pill or potion. 

So he's hurt them at the pump, and he's hurt them at Walgreens. It's a disaster, so he has to fix it. 

They said it'll be over in 4-6 weeks. They still say 4-6 but it'll be more six, than four. 

But the stakes are too high, not in Iran, but in Ohio and Minnesota and Georgia. That’s where the real war is. 

Obviously Chris Hipkins would disagree, but Donald Trump surely wins the "crap week of the week" award, given his week has material outcomes for all of us and Hipkins’ is just a personal mess gone ugly and public.&nbsp;
The war itself doesn’t appear to be any different at the end of week three than it was at the end of week two, or indeed week one.&nbsp;
Every indication is Iran is being obliterated. They have three major kills and the fact we have yet to actually see and hear the new Supreme Leader indicates the suggestion he is dead, or disfigured, rings more true by the day.&nbsp;
The attacks on Gulf facilities shows Iranian desperation. But the number of attacks continues to drop.&nbsp;
The marines are on the way and the B2's are dropping the massive 5000kg bombs around the Strait of Hormuz to presumably clear the way for them.&nbsp;
So, war wise there's nothing new to report. Trump could call it off any moment and claim victory, remembering claiming something is not always the reality.&nbsp;
But, and it's a massive "but", he asked for help on the Strait and short of the French possibly helping, once it's all settled and the sun is out, he got nothing. He got worse than nothing – he got the middle finger.&nbsp;
A world weary of his arrogance, threats and bullying told him to get stuffed. "It's not our problem.”&nbsp;
At which point he went straight to his baby act of whining and bleating and moaning.&nbsp;
The Strait is a problem and he made it so. Whether they never planned for it or thought about it doesn’t matter because they created it and his voters are paying.&nbsp;
They're paying a fortune for gas, the market is sinking, the two things he cares most about (the Dow and the bloke at the bowser) aren't working for him and that’s why this thing will still end sooner rather than later.&nbsp;
Small side note - when he says America doesn’t need the Strait, half of America's generics medicine comes from India. India gets their material through the Gulf. There isn't an American not on a pill or potion.&nbsp;
So he's hurt them at the pump, and he's hurt them at Walgreens. It's a disaster, so he has to fix it.&nbsp;
They said it'll be over in 4-6 weeks. They still say 4-6 but it'll be more six, than four.&nbsp;
But the stakes are too high, not in Iran, but in Ohio and Minnesota and Georgia. That’s where the real war is.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: The worst week for Trump's war

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c6fb3334-8d80-40f0-9c56-b412015bc835/transcript

Henry Olsen: Polling analyst gives his thoughts on the US Election odds, the latest polling numbers

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