Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck on the eve of polling day, but one top polling expert is picking the election for Trump. 

Trump is spending the day in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

Harris is focusing on Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state with 19 Electoral College votes. 

Polling analyst Henry Olsen told Mike Hosking he believes Trump will narrowly win more Electoral College votes. 

He says the country has shifted to the right, and Harris isn't winning enough independent voters to offset that. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck on the eve of polling day, but one top polling expert is picking the election for Trump.&nbsp;
Trump is spending the day in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.&nbsp;
Harris is focusing on Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state with 19 Electoral College votes.&nbsp;
Polling analyst Henry Olsen told Mike Hosking he believes Trump will narrowly win more Electoral College votes.&nbsp;
He says the country has shifted to the right, and Harris isn't winning enough independent voters to offset that.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Henry Olsen: Polling analyst gives his thoughts on the US Election odds, the latest polling numbers

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/3fc63003-5ce3-4039-b9a9-b21e01386c02/transcript

We have good news on housing. 

1) It's still a buyers' market. 

2) A good chunk of the buyers are first timers. 

It’s the debate we should at least acknowledge has been, for now, partially solved. 

Not long back we were where Australia currently is; young people couldn't afford a house and, with plenty of emotion, it was suggested they never would. 

That wasn’t actually factually true then and it most certainly isn't now. 

What is helping is two things: 

1) The slow rise of prices as we move out of the recessions and into recovery. The capacity for the wider economy to grow without major house price increases is actually a good debate, or question, but one for another day. 

2) Lending. There is a lot of it for first timers. 

Money attached to small deposits is booming. The reason that is happening is because the Reserve Bank loosened the debt-to-income rules as well as the LVR's. 

So, with less than 20% you can get into a home. 

Australia has a better system. The Government backs some people into homes with 5%. It's income related and in Australia there is an attached argument around price increases, given they aren't building houses and immigration is booming. 

But here we don’t have those problems, sadly. But of the two problems young people face (one being the deposit and the other being the price of a house and therefore the mortgage) it’s the deposit that is the biggest hurdle. 

20% of $800,000 grand is $160,000. Saving that sort of money is ruinous to dreams, so the sooner we get past that as a hurdle the better. 

A mortgage can be managed. But what is most important about all of this is the indisputable truth that housing is a Kiwi dream, if not an obsession. A house is a retirement plan and the arguments around putting your money elsewhere and spreading the basket falls largely, rightly or wrongly, on deaf ears. 

If I had my way 5% would be the key, 10% max. If young people have been locked out of housing, it's not the price that’s been the killer, it's been the deposit. 

The Reserve Bank rules have been, yet again, another of their mistakes. These news stats are hopefully partial rectification. 

We have good news on housing.&nbsp;
1) It's still a buyers' market.&nbsp;
2) A good chunk of the buyers are first timers.&nbsp;
It’s the debate we should at least acknowledge has been, for now, partially solved.&nbsp;
Not long back we were where Australia currently is; young people couldn't afford a house and, with plenty of emotion, it was suggested they never would.&nbsp;
That wasn’t actually factually true then and it most certainly isn't now.&nbsp;
What is helping is two things:&nbsp;
1) The slow rise of prices as we move out of the recessions and into recovery. The capacity for the wider economy to grow without major house price increases is actually a good debate, or question, but one for another day.&nbsp;
2) Lending. There is a lot of it for first timers.&nbsp;
Money attached to small deposits is booming. The reason that is happening is because the Reserve Bank loosened the debt-to-income rules as well as the LVR's.&nbsp;
So, with less than 20% you can get into a home.&nbsp;
Australia has a better system. The Government backs some people into homes with 5%. It's income related and in Australia there is an attached argument around price increases, given they aren't building houses and immigration is booming.&nbsp;
But here we don’t have those problems, sadly. But of the two problems young people face (one being the deposit and the other being the price of a house and therefore the mortgage) it’s the deposit that is the biggest hurdle.&nbsp;
20% of $800,000 grand is $160,000. Saving that sort of money is ruinous to dreams, so the sooner we get past that as a hurdle the better.&nbsp;
A mortgage can be managed. But what is most important about all of this is the indisputable truth that housing is a Kiwi dream, if not an obsession. A house is a retirement plan and the arguments around putting your money elsewhere and spreading the basket falls largely, rightly or wrongly, on deaf ears.&nbsp;
If I had my way 5% would be the key, 10% max. If young people have been locked out of housing, it's not the price that’s been the killer, it's been the deposit.&nbsp;
The Reserve Bank rules have been, yet again, another of their mistakes. These news stats are hopefully partial rectification.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: We have good news on housing

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/ed23df29-72da-4e21-920c-b40c014f8d45/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

The Warriors: 8/10 

Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight. 

 

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10 

She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party. 

 

The Covid report: 6/10 

Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry? 

 

Oil: 1/10 

If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel. 

 

Trump: 2/10 

It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/richie-barnett-former-kiwis-captain-reviews-warriors-v-roosters-previews-raiders-clash/">The Warriors: 8/10</a>&nbsp;
Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10&nbsp;
She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/chris-hipkins-labour-leader-on-the-findings-of-the-second-phase-of-the-covid-19-inquiry/">The Covid report: 6/10</a>&nbsp;
Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry?&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Oil: 1/10&nbsp;
If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/richard-arnold-us-correspondent-on-latest-from-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east/">Trump: 2/10</a>&nbsp;
It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: The Covid report tells us what we already knew

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a03198f2-efec-4645-b36d-b40b015e0402/transcript

My observations on week two of the war. 

I'm as convinced as ever I was that this thing is over in the four week-ish window they said it would be. 

If true, it means we should not have spent the week guessing when it will be over because we have already been told. 

If I worry about anything it's miscalculation. The trouble with the miscalculation is we don’t really know if it is or not because most of what we hear is from the President and his Secretary of War, both of whom are cartoonish in their persona. 

To say out loud he was surprised at the size of the Iranian navy is shocking. To say out loud, and both have, that they were surprised Arab states got attacked is even more shocking. 

But then this was a bloke yesterday travelling through middle America telling the crowds at a rally that prices were coming down, so my faint hope is even though he is completely detached from reality, the people in the uniforms aren't. 

I have no doubt Iran is fairly flattened and their ability to do a lot going forward that would bother the Western world is now severely limited. 

But I also know oil isn't flowing and my equal bet is more people are worried about oil than they are about Iran. 

That’s why this war, polls show, has no buy-in. We don’t care and we never did. Mind you, we may have been saved from ourselves of course because we would care if the Iranians ever really got nuclear weapons. 

So if this thing ends within a month or so and oil is back to $68 a barrel, all in all, it will have been worth it. 

It also shows beyond a shadow of doubt that renewables are nowhere near the answer, given when the Strait of Hormuz got closed, we didn’t all turn on our windmills. 

But at the end of week two what I know is this: the economy is everything. 

Economics is everything and this war will end not because Iran has been beaten, but because oil is king, petrol drives economies and Americans are voting later this year. And if they can't afford the bills because their President got sucked in by Israel, he's toast. 

And as mad as Trump is, he's no idiot. 

My observations on week two of the war.&nbsp;
I'm as convinced as ever I was that this thing is over in the four week-ish window they said it would be.&nbsp;
If true, it means we should not have spent the week guessing when it will be over because we have already been told.&nbsp;
If I worry about anything it's miscalculation. The trouble with the miscalculation is we don’t really know if it is or not because most of what we hear is from the President and his Secretary of War, both of whom are cartoonish in their persona.&nbsp;
To say out loud he was surprised at the size of the Iranian navy is shocking. To say out loud, and both have, that they were surprised Arab states got attacked is even more shocking.&nbsp;
But then this was a bloke yesterday travelling through middle America telling the crowds at a rally that prices were coming down, so my faint hope is even though he is completely detached from reality, the people in the uniforms aren't.&nbsp;
I have no doubt Iran is fairly flattened and their ability to do a lot going forward that would bother the Western world is now severely limited.&nbsp;
But I also know oil isn't flowing and my equal bet is more people are worried about oil than they are about Iran.&nbsp;
That’s why this war, polls show, has no buy-in. We don’t care and we never did. Mind you, we may have been saved from ourselves of course because we would care if the Iranians ever really got nuclear weapons.&nbsp;
So if this thing ends within a month or so and oil is back to $68 a barrel, all in all, it will have been worth it.&nbsp;
It also shows beyond a shadow of doubt that renewables are nowhere near the answer, given when the Strait of Hormuz got closed, we didn’t all turn on our windmills.&nbsp;
But at the end of week two what I know is this: the economy is everything.&nbsp;
Economics is everything and this war will end not because Iran has been beaten, but because oil is king, petrol drives economies and Americans are voting later this year. And if they can't afford the bills because their President got sucked in by Israel, he's toast.&nbsp;
And as mad as Trump is, he's no idiot.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: My observations on week two of the war

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/bd8ed6b9-5b29-40a7-a794-b40b015bc532/transcript

Henry Olsen: Polling analyst gives his thoughts on the US Election odds, the latest polling numbers

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