There are fears that inflation could come back into the picture as the OCR falls. 

Infometrics expects the OCR to fall to 2.25% next month - it's 2.5% at the moment. 

Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan says they expect to see growth hit 2.3% annual growth in 2027. 

He says alongside stoking inflation, it could create other problems. 

Kiernan says it risks stretching capacity in the construction and infrastructure sector. 

LISTEN ABOVE

There are fears that inflation could come back into the picture as the OCR falls.&nbsp;
Infometrics expects the OCR to fall to 2.25% next month - it's 2.5% at the moment.&nbsp;
Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan says they expect to see growth hit 2.3% annual growth in 2027.&nbsp;
He says alongside stoking inflation, it could create other problems.&nbsp;
Kiernan says it risks stretching capacity in the construction and infrastructure sector.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Gareth Kiernan: Infometrics Chief Forecaster warns of risk to rise in inflation

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/22152a6d-6d5e-4edc-a1af-b378013c8bbf/transcript

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 19th of January, the Prime Minister joins Mike in studio to talk the state of the economy, the coalition and when the election date will be announced. 

We find out about the New Zealanders who are moving to Australia who are finding out the grass isn't always greener. 

The Commentary Box talks Scott Robertson's depature as All Blacks coach and the Blackcaps historic ODI series win in India. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 19th of January, the Prime Minister joins Mike in studio to talk the state of the economy, the coalition and when the election date will be announced.&nbsp;
We find out about the New Zealanders who are moving to Australia who are finding out the grass isn't always greener.&nbsp;
The Commentary Box talks Scott Robertson's depature as All Blacks coach and the Blackcaps historic ODI series win in India.&nbsp;
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Full Show Podcast: 19 January 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c37af394-d48e-4cfa-bc1b-b3d6014c9dda/transcript

I’m a bit exercised about Scott Robertson, because I like him and I thought he was a good coach. His record at Canterbury spoke for itself.

The trouble in this country is that we can’t have a sensible conversation about All Blacks coaches, because so many of us come to it with myopic, emotional views driven by idiocy like geography and personality expectations that have nothing to do with the actual job.

Hansen had pro and anti camps, as did Foster, and now Robertson. It all wastes too much energy.

Also, we might just be a bit too energised because we’re a small country with not a lot else to think about. In the NFL at the moment, there are nine head coach vacancies — after eight sackings and one resignation. Over a quarter of all jobs in the NFL are up for grabs, and that isn’t unusual.

As for the EPL, there’s a sacking every second day.

What I can’t quite work out is this: when David Kirk says we aren’t where we need to be at this point in the cycle, what does that even mean? Where specifically do we need to be?

Once upon a time, when the All Blacks won every test as of right, we still didn’t win the World Cup. So presumably, when we won everything, we must have felt in a good place.

Also, how is it that Robertson is banned from going elsewhere? Not good enough to coach us, but too dangerous to ply his trade offshore? Apart from paying him to not work… I wouldn’t have taken that deal.

I also can’t quite work out how much of this is player driven — and of that player feedback, how much is personal versus professional. How much responsibility does a player have for what happens on the field, as opposed to the coach?

Back to the NFL — a bloke called Vrabel was sacked from Tennessee because they weren’t winning. After he left, they still aren’t winning. But the team he went to, New England, were hopeless until this year… they might be in the Super Bowl. So was that him? Luck? Or other factors?

Someone always seems to have to pay the price whenever someone decides things aren’t right.

Which is the other weird bit: the All Blacks’ winning record, in an increasingly competitive world, wasn’t that bad. So why the panic?

Loyalty, consistency, and longevity are all traits of value. But you have to recognise them.

If you don’t, you tend to make mistakes by going around sacking people with no real, obvious next step in place.

LISTEN ABOVE

I’m a bit exercised about Scott Robertson, because I like him and I thought he was a good coach. His record at Canterbury spoke for itself.
The trouble in this country is that we can’t have a sensible conversation about All Blacks coaches, because so many of us come to it with myopic, emotional views driven by idiocy like geography and personality expectations that have nothing to do with the actual job.
Hansen had pro and anti camps, as did Foster, and now Robertson. It all wastes too much energy.
Also, we might just be a bit too energised because we’re a small country with not a lot else to think about. In the NFL at the moment, there are nine head coach vacancies — after eight sackings and one resignation. Over a quarter of all jobs in the NFL are up for grabs, and that isn’t unusual.
As for the EPL, there’s a sacking every second day.
What I can’t quite work out is this: when David Kirk says we aren’t where we need to be at this point in the cycle, what does that even mean? Where specifically do we need to be?
Once upon a time, when the All Blacks won every test as of right, we still didn’t win the World Cup. So presumably, when we won everything, we must have felt in a good place.
Also, how is it that Robertson is banned from going elsewhere? Not good enough to coach us, but too dangerous to ply his trade offshore? Apart from paying him to not work… I wouldn’t have taken that deal.
I also can’t quite work out how much of this is player driven — and of that player feedback, how much is personal versus professional. How much responsibility does a player have for what happens on the field, as opposed to the coach?
Back to the NFL — a bloke called Vrabel was sacked from Tennessee because they weren’t winning. After he left, they still aren’t winning. But the team he went to, New England, were hopeless until this year… they might be in the Super Bowl. So was that him? Luck? Or other factors?
Someone always seems to have to pay the price whenever someone decides things aren’t right.
Which is the other weird bit: the All Blacks’ winning record, in an increasingly competitive world, wasn’t that bad. So why the panic?
Loyalty, consistency, and longevity are all traits of value. But you have to recognise them.
If you don’t, you tend to make mistakes by going around sacking people with no real, obvious next step in place.
LISTEN ABOVE

Mike's Minute: I still have questions over Razor's departure

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/cd1eb81a-716a-48bd-8989-b3d6014d9fd8/transcript

Jason Pine and Andrew Saville join Mike Hosking this morning to discuss the weekend's sports.

On the table today: Australian cricket legend Usman Khawaja announced his retirement from the sport in a moving address, 

Darryl Mitchell continues to impress for the Black Caps,

and the Australian Open: $40,000 just to get eliminated immediately? Is it worth it?

LISTEN ABOVE

Jason Pine and Andrew Saville join Mike Hosking this morning to discuss the weekend's sports.
On the table today: Australian cricket legend Usman Khawaja announced his retirement from the sport in a moving address,&nbsp;
Darryl Mitchell continues to impress for the Black Caps,
and the Australian Open: $40,000 just to get eliminated immediately? Is it worth it?
LISTEN ABOVE

Commentary Box: Andrew Saville and Jason Pine discuss Summer Cricket, Usman Khawaja and the Australian Open

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/8cf56f4e-9c6b-426e-b242-b3d60148664f/transcript

Gareth Kiernan: Infometrics Chief Forecaster warns of risk to rise in inflation

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