Infometrics has revised its expectations for economic growth next year upwards. 

It now predicts year-end growth at 0.9%. 

Inflation data out this week also shows inflationary pressures were easing more than had been expected. 

Chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan told Mike Hosking that they’re looking at a soft landing.

He said that growth is holding up and inflation is slowing in line with what the Reserve Bank would be hoping for, so there would be little need to increase interest rates further.

LISTEN ABOVE

Infometrics has revised its expectations for economic growth next year upwards.  
It now predicts year-end growth at 0.9%.  
Inflation data out this week also shows inflationary pressures were easing more than had been expected.  
Chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan told Mike Hosking that they’re looking at a soft landing. 
He said that growth is holding up and inflation is slowing in line with what the Reserve Bank would be hoping for, so there would be little need to increase interest rates further. 
LISTEN ABOVE

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

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Gareth Kiernan: Infometrics Chief Forecaster on easing inflationary pressues

Here's the headline: "3000 hospitality businesses close in a year". 

That’s what the media not only does, but loves. They would perceive it as bad news and they can't pedal bad news enough. 

But in the numbers are the real story. 

The 3000 is made up of closures and liquidations. A closure can mean nothing more than a person leaving the country or closing one establishment to open another. That happens all the time. 

It's not a sign of anything other than mood or inspiration. 

It's important to also remember that there are more openings than closures. That’s the real story, so in essence the hospitality scene is actually growing. 

Not that a headline about 3000 closures would ever tell you that. 

Ironically, it's also perhaps an insight into the reality of hospitality, which is to say it's a very easy entry into business, given a lot of hospitality is hole-in-the-wall sandwich-type stuff, often by migrants, that comes and goes. 

So on one hand we are growing and on the other it's an in-and-out sort of operation that is not really reflective of a wider economy, or its story. 

The next part of the stats dump is liquidations. They tell us liquidations are up 42% year on year. That sounds bad, until you hear the next number, which is 1.3%. 

The 1.3% is the percentage of businesses that actually end up liquidated, which of course is hardly any. 

98.7% are not liquidated, so the 42% is off an extremely low base and not, if you were being honest, worthy of a headline. 

But remember the key here; it's all about bad news. 

Do you want a worse one? 

Takeaway liquidations were up 143%. That's a shocker, except, remember that takeaways is a subset of overall liquidations and the liquidations only represent 1.3%. So imagine how small the actual number of fish and chip shops this actually involves is. So, 143% of what? 

So, to the narrative. If a headline is all you ever see you will believe we are a dump, it’s a mess and things aren't improving. And yet the truth is a whole different thing. 

In these numbers and the narrative is the modern-day story of news and information; what's real versus what they want you to think is real. 

It sadly requires work on your part to get to the real story. 

And in this case, it is nowhere near as bad as they make out. In fact, it's almost entirely the opposite. 

Here's the headline: "3000 hospitality businesses close in a year".&nbsp;
That’s what the media not only does, but loves. They would perceive it as bad news and they can't pedal bad news enough.&nbsp;
But in the numbers are the real story.&nbsp;
The 3000 is made up of closures and liquidations. A closure can mean nothing more than a person leaving the country or closing one establishment to open another. That happens all the time.&nbsp;
It's not a sign of anything other than mood or inspiration.&nbsp;
It's important to also remember that there are more openings than closures. That’s the real story, so in essence the hospitality scene is actually growing.&nbsp;
Not that a headline about 3000 closures would ever tell you that.&nbsp;
Ironically, it's also perhaps an insight into the reality of hospitality, which is to say it's a very easy entry into business, given a lot of hospitality is hole-in-the-wall sandwich-type stuff, often by migrants, that comes and goes.&nbsp;
So on one hand we are growing and on the other it's an in-and-out sort of operation that is not really reflective of a wider economy, or its story.&nbsp;
The next part of the stats dump is liquidations. They tell us liquidations are up 42% year on year. That sounds bad, until you hear the next number, which is 1.3%.&nbsp;
The 1.3% is the percentage of businesses that actually end up liquidated, which of course is hardly any.&nbsp;
98.7% are not liquidated, so the 42% is off an extremely low base and not, if you were being honest, worthy of a headline.&nbsp;
But remember the key here; it's all about bad news.&nbsp;
Do you want a worse one?&nbsp;
Takeaway liquidations were up 143%. That's a shocker, except, remember that takeaways is a subset of overall liquidations and the liquidations only represent 1.3%. So imagine how small the actual number of fish and chip shops this actually involves is. So, 143% of what?&nbsp;
So, to the narrative. If a headline is all you ever see you will believe we are a dump, it’s a mess and things aren't improving. And yet the truth is a whole different thing.&nbsp;
In these numbers and the narrative is the modern-day story of news and information; what's real versus what they want you to think is real.&nbsp;
It sadly requires work on your part to get to the real story.&nbsp;
And in this case, it is nowhere near as bad as they make out. In fact, it's almost entirely the opposite.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Look further than the headline

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/e4443886-1cfc-4318-bde2-b4b90168c74b/transcript

James Suckling is one of the biggest names in the wine game. 

The American critic has been tasting thousands of wines every year for decades, and his tick of approval is worth its weight in gold in the industry. 

And a few years ago, he put that weight behind New Zealand's wine production, buying his own vineyard in Martinborough – Mirae.  

Suckling told Mike Hosking that the purchase was serendipitous, as he'd never planned on owning a vineyard.  

"I was in Martinborough ... this was 2022 after Covid, so I hadn't been in ten years, and so I wanted to come back," he explained. 

"I went with a mate of mine who's a Kiwi ... and I'm like mate, let's go and check out the best vineyards in New Zealand." 

"I didn't remember it as such a magnificent place, but in the back of my mind I kept on thinking, wow, you know, this could be the last place on Earth to make great fresh wines." 

And so when he saw a for sale sign on a vineyard called Kiwa, it was love at first sight. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

James Suckling is one of the biggest names in the wine game.&nbsp;
The American critic has been tasting thousands of wines every year for decades, and his tick of approval is worth its weight in gold in the industry.&nbsp;
And a few years ago, he put that weight behind New Zealand's wine production, buying his own vineyard in Martinborough – Mirae. &nbsp;
Suckling told Mike Hosking that the purchase was serendipitous, as he'd never planned on owning a vineyard. &nbsp;
"I was in Martinborough ... this was 2022 after Covid, so I hadn't been in ten years, and so I wanted to come back," he explained.&nbsp;
"I went with a mate of mine who's a Kiwi ... and I'm like mate, let's go and check out the best vineyards in New Zealand."&nbsp;
"I didn't remember it as such a magnificent place, but in the back of my mind I kept on thinking, wow, you know, this could be the last place on Earth to make great fresh wines."&nbsp;
And so when he saw a for sale sign on a vineyard called Kiwa, it was love at first sight.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

James Suckling: American wine critic on the impact of weather on wine, his investment in the NZ wine industry

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/43febb8a-ee95-4a97-92fd-b4b9016586bc/transcript

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 3rd of September, Finance Minister Nicola Willis discusses the Reserve Bank hiking the Official Cash Rate and Methanex closing their Taranaki plant. 

Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman explains their decision to lift the OCR by 25 basis points. 

Arguably the number one wine critic in the world, James Suckling talks about investing into the NZ wine scene and why we're one of the last frontiers able to produce great wine. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 3rd of September, <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/nicola-willis-finance-minister-on-the-ocr-methanex-closing-its-taranaki-plant-after-more-than-30-years/">Finance Minister Nicola Willis</a> discusses the Reserve Bank hiking the Official Cash Rate and Methanex closing their Taranaki plant.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/anna-breman-reserve-bank-governor-on-the-decision-to-hike-to-official-cash-rate-to-275/">Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman</a> explains their decision to lift the OCR by 25 basis points.&nbsp;
Arguably the number one wine critic in the world, <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/james-suckling-american-wine-critic-on-the-impact-of-weather-on-wine-his-investment-in-the-nz-wine-industry/">James Suckling</a> talks about investing into the NZ wine scene and why we're one of the last frontiers able to produce great wine.&nbsp;
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 03 September 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/8efc52b6-b3cc-48bb-82fa-b4b9015d76e7/transcript

Gareth Kiernan: Infometrics Chief Forecaster on easing inflationary pressues

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