On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 28th of January, the Government is set to adjust the Auckland housing plan – Chris Bishop gives a few details. 

The Broadcasting Standards Authority is calling for a change in the laws around media broadcasting in this country. 

Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen talk MPs leaving, the Mount Maunganui tragedy, and whether they pay attention to the polls on Politics Wednesday.  

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 28th of January, the Government is set to adjust the Auckland housing plan – <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/chris-bishop-housing-minister-on-the-plans-for-housing-intensification-in-auckland/">Chris Bishop gives a few details.</a>&nbsp;
The <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/stacey-wood-broadcasting-standards-authority-ceo-on-the-call-for-legislative-reform/">Broadcasting Standards Authority</a> is calling for a change in the laws around media broadcasting in this country.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/politics-wednesday-with-mark-mitchell-and-ginny-andersen-polls-inquiry-into-the-mount-maunganui-landslide-india-fta/">Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen</a> talk MPs leaving, the Mount Maunganui tragedy, and whether they pay attention to the polls on Politics Wednesday. &nbsp;
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Full Show Podcast: 28 January 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c4c3ab6d-4472-4ef9-80f7-b3df014c9989/transcript

There are reasons to ignore political polls this year. 

And some reasons not to. 

1) There have been two polls since the election was called, the RNZ-Reid Research one yesterday and the Taxpayers-Curia poll last week. Both tell you the Government, as it stands, will be re-elected, so there's a consistency to them. 

2) Both tell the same story, and both don’t. Labour is on 35%-ish in both polls. That reassures you in terms of accuracy. 

But is NZ First on 10% or 11.5%? And in a crowded field where a point matters, far less being inside or outside the margin of error, that makes polls look ropey. 

3) A theme. This is where polls are effective. 

Both polls have NZ First materially going up. Whether accurate or not, that creates noise, and noise is momentum and momentum is gold in election year. 

4) The imponderables of Te Pati Māori. All polls are based on the idea that Te Pati Māori has six seats i.e. they are in Parliament. 

But given their current state, will they even survive? And from what we know of the sort of shift we have seen historically, both with the Māori vote generally and Te Pati Māori’s vote specifically, it's entirely possible they will be gone. 

Unless you win a seat your 2-3% support is put in the bin. That is Labour's worst nightmare and, I'm assuming, Te Pati Māori aren't that keen on it either. 

5) The other commonality between polls is the Greens are down, and their hopeless and hapless disposition easily explains that. 

6) Just to back up what I was saying yesterday, TOP would need to more than double their vote to get in. They won't do it. 

Can things change? Of course. That's what makes this year so exciting. 

The real figure to watch is the right way, wrong way numbers. Governments don’t win elections, they say, when more people think things aren't going well. 

Hence the runway, hence the date of November, and hence the hope stuff gets material and fast and the mood changes with it. 

But that’s the great reminder all pollsters give you – these are snapshots of a moment, the here and now. 

So look at it this way: if the Government can be re-elected when the majority think we're heading in the wrong direction, which both these polls show, what will their margin be like when that mood has turned? 

Or this: if Te Pati Māori can't resurrect themselves and the mood swings positive, will November 7th even be close? 

There are reasons to ignore political polls this year.&nbsp;
And some reasons not to.&nbsp;
1) There have been two polls since the election was called, the RNZ-Reid Research one yesterday and the Taxpayers-Curia poll last week. Both tell you the Government, as it stands, will be re-elected, so there's a consistency to them.&nbsp;
2) Both tell the same story, and both don’t. Labour is on 35%-ish in both polls. That reassures you in terms of accuracy.&nbsp;
But is NZ First on 10% or 11.5%? And in a crowded field where a point matters, far less being inside or outside the margin of error, that makes polls look ropey.&nbsp;
3) A theme. This is where polls are effective.&nbsp;
Both polls have NZ First materially going up. Whether accurate or not, that creates noise, and noise is momentum and momentum is gold in election year.&nbsp;
4) The imponderables of Te Pati Māori. All polls are based on the idea that Te Pati Māori has six seats i.e. they are in Parliament.&nbsp;
But given their current state, will they even survive? And from what we know of the sort of shift we have seen historically, both with the Māori vote generally and Te Pati Māori’s vote specifically, it's entirely possible they will be gone.&nbsp;
Unless you win a seat your 2-3% support is put in the bin. That is Labour's worst nightmare and, I'm assuming, Te Pati Māori aren't that keen on it either.&nbsp;
5) The other commonality between polls is the Greens are down, and their hopeless and hapless disposition easily explains that.&nbsp;
6) Just to back up what I was saying yesterday, TOP would need to more than double their vote to get in. They won't do it.&nbsp;
Can things change? Of course. That's what makes this year so exciting.&nbsp;
The real figure to watch is the right way, wrong way numbers. Governments don’t win elections, they say, when more people think things aren't going well.&nbsp;
Hence the runway, hence the date of November, and hence the hope stuff gets material and fast and the mood changes with it.&nbsp;
But that’s the great reminder all pollsters give you – these are snapshots of a moment, the here and now.&nbsp;
So look at it this way: if the Government can be re-elected when the majority think we're heading in the wrong direction, which both these polls show, what will their margin be like when that mood has turned?&nbsp;
Or this: if Te Pati Māori can't resurrect themselves and the mood swings positive, will November 7th even be close?&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Why we should, and shouldn't, pay attention to polls

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/e0c26960-79a1-45ae-9f59-b3df015bcf48/transcript

Scorching heatwave conditions continue to grip much of Australia's southeast, keeping authorities on high alert as fire conditions grow increasingly unpredictable. 

Temperatures soared across parts of Victoria and South Australia yesterday, breaking nearly a dozen local heat records and nearing 50C. 

And the scorching temperatures are set to continue, with forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the heat is set to linger until the weekend in areas away from the coast.  

Australia Correspondent Steve Price told Mike Hosking that one fire officer said that the radiant heat is so extreme it can kill you before you even get hit by a bushfire.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

Scorching heatwave conditions continue to grip much of Australia's southeast, keeping authorities on high alert as fire conditions grow increasingly unpredictable.&nbsp;
Temperatures soared across parts of Victoria and South Australia yesterday, breaking nearly a dozen local heat records and nearing 50C.&nbsp;
And the scorching temperatures are set to continue, with forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the heat is set to linger until the weekend in areas away from the coast. &nbsp;
Australia Correspondent Steve Price told Mike Hosking that one fire officer said that the radiant heat is so extreme it can kill you before you even get hit by a bushfire. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Steve Price: Australia Correspondent on the record breaking heatwave in the southeast

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/2fe7f486-09e1-414e-8537-b3df0158f837/transcript

US President Donald Trump says his administration is reviewing the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis nurse by immigration agents. 

Alex Pretti was fatally shot while protesting against the immigration crackdown in the city this weekend, three weeks after mother Renee Good met the same fate.  

The facts around the incident including whether he was wielding a gun have been hotly contested, setting up a fresh confrontation between state and federal officials. 

US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that while Pretti was carrying a concealed weapon, legally, the only thing he had in his hands at the time was his phone.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

US President Donald Trump says his administration is reviewing the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis nurse by immigration agents.&nbsp;
Alex Pretti was fatally shot while protesting against the immigration crackdown in the city this weekend, three weeks after mother Renee Good met the same fate. &nbsp;
The facts around the incident including whether he was wielding a gun have been hotly contested, setting up a fresh confrontation between state and federal officials.&nbsp;
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that while Pretti was carrying a concealed weapon, legally, the only thing he had in his hands at the time was his phone. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Richard Arnold: US Correspondent on the second shooting in Minneapolis, ICE protests

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/de87eb17-156c-4b32-88fe-b3df0155c313/transcript

Full Show Podcast: 28 January 2026

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