Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget. 

It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.    

Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism. 

The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity. 

He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year. 

Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget.&nbsp;
It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. &nbsp; &nbsp;
Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism.&nbsp;
The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity.&nbsp;
He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year.&nbsp;
Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/af10fda5-f338-4d13-932d-b4580153bacc/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

The Budget: 6/10 

The days of drama are gone. It reflected the state of the place; one with prospects but difficult days ahead and discipline required. 

 

Horse-faced duck: 1/10 

You literally can't make this stuff up. A behind the scenes reality of what will be asking for your vote in a few short months. 

 

Stuff: 2/10 

Their coverage of our acknowledgement to the MP Joseph Mooney over outing him in the Luxon drama was wrong. They said we apologised. We did not apologise, Stuff literally made that up. It's sloppy, unnecessary and lazy. 

 

The moon base: 6/10 

Because it sounds cool, but the timeline of 2032 is six years away. You can't build a kilometre of tarmac in six years, far less house yourself on the moon. 

 

The Ferrari Luce: 1/10 

It's inexplicable. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The Budget: 6/10&nbsp;
The days of drama are gone. It reflected the state of the place; one with prospects but difficult days ahead and discipline required.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Horse-faced duck: 1/10&nbsp;
You literally can't make this stuff up. A behind the scenes reality of what will be asking for your vote in a few short months.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Stuff: 2/10&nbsp;
Their coverage of our acknowledgement to the MP Joseph Mooney over outing him in the Luxon drama was wrong. They said we apologised. We did not apologise, Stuff literally made that up. It's sloppy, unnecessary and lazy.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The moon base: 6/10&nbsp;
Because it sounds cool, but the timeline of 2032 is six years away. You can't build a kilometre of tarmac in six years, far less house yourself on the moon.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The Ferrari Luce: 1/10&nbsp;
It's inexplicable.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: 'Horse-faced duck' gave a look behind the scenes at Labour

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/0c46c903-f225-4db6-acc5-b45801751f8a/transcript

I asked for the surplus to arrive sooner than previously forecast and, as though she was listening this time yesterday, the first words out of Nicola Willis' mouth were it will be a year ahead of schedule. 

You can't ask for more than that. 

That’s not an election year lolly, but I'm increasingly of the belief that a growing number of New Zealanders have got the message. 

A growing number of us have been shaken into the cold, hard reality that $9 billion a year in debt servicing is absurd and it can't continue. 

We need to cut our cloth and that, in many respects, was what yesterday was about. 

It's probably brave in election year to run things this tight. But it's also the adult thing to do. 

So the message, politically, is stark. If you want free stuff the current Government aren't really for you. If you want grown-ups paying for life as they earn it then this may be the lot that gets your vote. 

I do worry about health. Yes, health was a big, multibillion dollar winner and the hardware, the facilities and the equipment need a spruce up and, yes, bits and parts are squeezed. 

But the health bill for five million people seems amazing to me and not in a good way. There has to be savings to be had there.   

$17,000 for every house is not right. I didn’t use my $17,000 last year, so someone did. 

The roads improvements in the tricky bits of the country I like. Build them properly and deal to the future – don’t patch it up. 

We already know about education. A revolution is on and we will all be better for it. 

You know I'm a trades fan. There were big wins for good, old fashioned, but increasingly important, jobs. Not every kid wants a BA and even if they did get one, it doesn’t mean a job is waiting. The world will always want a sparky or a mechanic. 

There were the basics, the rational and the logic. There was a good message about three parties doing collegial work. There were wins for each of them, all mixed up with the overarching message that the madness, fiscally, has stopped and the reality has arrived. 

But, big picture, get it right. This is a place that has its best days ahead of it. 

I liked it. It's an easy 7/10. 

I asked for the surplus to arrive sooner than previously forecast and, as though she was listening this time yesterday, the first words out of Nicola Willis' mouth were it will be a year ahead of schedule.&nbsp;
You can't ask for more than that.&nbsp;
That’s not an election year lolly, but I'm increasingly of the belief that a growing number of New Zealanders have got the message.&nbsp;
A growing number of us have been shaken into the cold, hard reality that $9 billion a year in debt servicing is absurd and it can't continue.&nbsp;
We need to cut our cloth and that, in many respects, was what yesterday was about.&nbsp;
It's probably brave in election year to run things this tight. But it's also the adult thing to do.&nbsp;
So the message, politically, is stark. If you want free stuff the current Government aren't really for you. If you want grown-ups paying for life as they earn it then this may be the lot that gets your vote.&nbsp;
I do worry about health. Yes, health was a big, multibillion dollar winner and the hardware, the facilities and the equipment need a spruce up and, yes, bits and parts are squeezed.&nbsp;
But the health bill for five million people seems amazing to me and not in a good way. There has to be savings to be had there. &nbsp;&nbsp;
$17,000 for every house is not right. I didn’t use my $17,000 last year, so someone did.&nbsp;
The roads improvements in the tricky bits of the country I like. Build them properly and deal to the future – don’t patch it up.&nbsp;
We already know about education. A revolution is on and we will all be better for it.&nbsp;
You know I'm a trades fan. There were big wins for good, old fashioned, but increasingly important, jobs. Not every kid wants a BA and even if they did get one, it doesn’t mean a job is waiting. The world will always want a sparky or a mechanic.&nbsp;
There were the basics, the rational and the logic. There was a good message about three parties doing collegial work. There were wins for each of them, all mixed up with the overarching message that the madness, fiscally, has stopped and the reality has arrived.&nbsp;
But, big picture, get it right. This is a place that has its best days ahead of it.&nbsp;
I liked it. It's an easy 7/10.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: My thoughts on the Budget

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/860d08c1-e782-4353-b233-b4580173793e/transcript

Donald Trump's yet to sign-off on a tentative agreement between the US and Iran.  

US sources report negotiators from both sides have reached a deal to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, begin nuclear talks, and open the Strait of Hormuz.  

It's understood neither of the nation's leaders have approved the agreement.  

US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that according to both Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the President’s not going to take a bad deal.  

Bessent says there are several red lines, including Iran turning over its highly enriched uranium, and allowing free transit through the Strait. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Donald Trump's yet to sign-off on a tentative agreement between the US and Iran. &nbsp;
US sources report negotiators from both sides have reached a deal to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, begin nuclear talks, and open the Strait of Hormuz. &nbsp;
It's understood neither of the nation's leaders have approved the agreement. &nbsp;
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that according to both Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the President’s not going to take a bad deal. &nbsp;
Bessent says there are several red lines, including Iran turning over its highly enriched uranium, and allowing free transit through the Strait.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Richard Arnold: US Correspondent on the latest draft plan for an extension to the ceasefire between Iran and the US

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/036fba0b-a4ad-4bcc-bc8d-b45801727770/transcript

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

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