Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget. 

It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.    

Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism. 

The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity. 

He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year. 

Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget.&nbsp;
It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. &nbsp; &nbsp;
Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism.&nbsp;
The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity.&nbsp;
He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year.&nbsp;
Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/af10fda5-f338-4d13-932d-b4580153bacc/transcript

Almost on cue, the Climate Commission has entered this week's climate debate and told us we are at risk of missing our targets. 

This isn't to do with Golden Bay Cement specifically. It's generally about the fact that we have mucked about with rules and promises and things slowed down to a point they have decided we need to "crack on". 

Part of their statement to incentivise is the suggestion we are now, as in you and me, missing the chance to save money with renewables and new technologies. 

"We need to double the pace of emissions reductions, or else (insert alarm bell noise) we will not meet our targets!” 

"The time to correct this, the window of rectification, is closing.” 

We have of course heard this before. This is the climate alarmism catch cry all over the world. The great two degrees debate, the burning earth, the changing seasons. 

Trouble is it hasn’t, and isn't, working, not to the extent it needs to. 

There would seem no doubt our seasons have changed and dramatically. The European heatwaves are real, and hotter, and longer. I assume if the super El Niño turns out to be a thing bits of South America will burn, or flood, or both. 

But it still hasn’t meant we have done what we allegedly need to do. The two sets of facts seem indisputable i.e. we are warming up alarmingly and we are not doing what we need to do. 

So we are kind of stuck. We know the problem, we probably know the answer, but we are not prepared to make the sacrifice to do it. 

The big winner of course is self-interest. You get the satellite debates, the one where no matter what we do a country like New Zealand will literally make no difference and/or the big polluters like China and Russia and the US aren't doing enough, and until they do, why should we? 

But the big debate, the one the Climate Commission freaks out about, I think is lost. We are simply not prepared to pay the price. 

It's never been easier to go solar and yet we haven't. We don’t compost, we haven't stopped flying, and we still see the ETS as esoteric, or theoretical, or pointless. 

We are trying, but not to the point of success. So now what? 

Almost on cue, the Climate Commission has entered this week's climate debate and told us we are at risk of missing our targets.&nbsp;
This isn't to do with Golden Bay Cement specifically. It's generally about the fact that we have mucked about with rules and promises and things slowed down to a point they have decided we need to "crack on".&nbsp;
Part of their statement to incentivise is the suggestion we are now, as in you and me, missing the chance to save money with renewables and new technologies.&nbsp;
"We need to double the pace of emissions reductions, or else (insert alarm bell noise) we will not meet our targets!”&nbsp;
"The time to correct this, the window of rectification, is closing.”&nbsp;
We have of course heard this before. This is the climate alarmism catch cry all over the world. The great two degrees debate, the burning earth, the changing seasons.&nbsp;
Trouble is it hasn’t, and isn't, working, not to the extent it needs to.&nbsp;
There would seem no doubt our seasons have changed and dramatically. The European heatwaves are real, and hotter, and longer. I assume if the super El Niño turns out to be a thing bits of South America will burn, or flood, or both.&nbsp;
But it still hasn’t meant we have done what we allegedly need to do. The two sets of facts seem indisputable i.e. we are warming up alarmingly and we are not doing what we need to do.&nbsp;
So we are kind of stuck. We know the problem, we probably know the answer, but we are not prepared to make the sacrifice to do it.&nbsp;
The big winner of course is self-interest. You get the satellite debates, the one where no matter what we do a country like New Zealand will literally make no difference and/or the big polluters like China and Russia and the US aren't doing enough, and until they do, why should we?&nbsp;
But the big debate, the one the Climate Commission freaks out about, I think is lost. We are simply not prepared to pay the price.&nbsp;
It's never been easier to go solar and yet we haven't. We don’t compost, we haven't stopped flying, and we still see the ETS as esoteric, or theoretical, or pointless.&nbsp;
We are trying, but not to the point of success. So now what?&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: We aren't prepared to pay the climate price

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/ccd9bf8f-b322-4ad8-8c09-b48f01790e32/transcript

New South Wales league coach Laurie Daley believes players and fans on both sides of the Tasman will jump at the chance to experience State of Origin in New Zealand. 

Game two of next year's series is at Auckland's Eden Park. 

Daley told Mike Hosking it’s such an iconic venue, so for the players to experience that and for Kiwis to experience Australia’s greatest sporting product, it’s exceptional.  

And, he says, there will be plenty of Australian fans making the trip over to watch and support the game as well. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

New South Wales league coach Laurie Daley believes players and fans on both sides of the Tasman will jump at the chance to experience State of Origin in New Zealand.&nbsp;
Game two of next year's series is at Auckland's Eden Park.&nbsp;
Daley told Mike Hosking it’s such an iconic venue, so for the players to experience that and for Kiwis to experience Australia’s greatest sporting product, it’s exceptional. &nbsp;
And, he says, there will be plenty of Australian fans making the trip over to watch and support the game as well.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Laurie Daley: New South Wales Blues Coach on NZ hosting its first State of Origin match next season

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/7a369f53-d820-4b5c-92cc-b48f01671a33/transcript

It’s unclear what regulation would be helpful as AI’s become increasingly powerful. 

Open AI says one of their servers has hacked into a competitor's server – without a human asking it to.  

Serious concerns are now being raised about how quickly the systems are being created and implemented.  

Auckland University Professor of Computer Science Michael Witbrock told Mike Hosking it's been clear these systems are getting good at cyber security analysis.  

He says in this case the system was asked to solve a cyber security problem - it just did more hacking than was expected. 

Witbrock told Hosking while there are plenty of people following their own interests, it isn’t in the interests of AI companies overall to deliberately hack each other or to have these vulnerabilities.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

It’s unclear what regulation would be helpful as AI’s become increasingly powerful.&nbsp;
Open AI says one of their servers has hacked into a competitor's server – without a human asking it to. &nbsp;
Serious concerns are now being raised about how quickly the systems are being created and implemented. &nbsp;
Auckland University Professor of Computer Science Michael Witbrock told Mike Hosking it's been clear these systems are getting good at cyber security analysis. &nbsp;
He says in this case the system was asked to solve a cyber security problem - it just did more hacking than was expected.&nbsp;
Witbrock told Hosking while there are plenty of people following their own interests, it isn’t in the interests of AI companies overall to deliberately hack each other or to have these vulnerabilities. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Michael Witbrock: Auckland University Professor of Computer Science on the OpenAI model autonomously hacking a competitor's server

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/06a317e8-e2cf-43e1-9f48-b48f016256a4/transcript

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

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