Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget. 

It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.    

Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism. 

The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity. 

He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year. 

Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget.&nbsp;
It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. &nbsp; &nbsp;
Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism.&nbsp;
The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity.&nbsp;
He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year.&nbsp;
Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/af10fda5-f338-4d13-932d-b4580153bacc/transcript

It’s an uncertain future for farmers, with global events making it harder to predict the milk price.  

Fonterra's midpoint payout forecast for the current season is $9.70.  

It's slightly up for next season, at $9.75, but it's signalling that could be as low as $8 or as high as $11.  

Dairy NZ Chief Executive Campbell Parker told Mike Hosking the gap is mirroring the current volatility, with the top end of last year about $10. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

It’s an uncertain future for farmers, with global events making it harder to predict the milk price. &nbsp;
Fonterra's midpoint payout forecast for the current season is $9.70. &nbsp;
It's slightly up for next season, at $9.75, but it's signalling that could be as low as $8 or as high as $11. &nbsp;
Dairy NZ Chief Executive Campbell Parker told Mike Hosking the gap is mirroring the current volatility, with the top end of last year about $10.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Campbell Parker: Dairy NZ CEO on the new dairy season, wide milk price range

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/07f22c28-19b2-4719-88c3-b458015ec538/transcript

There’s a view the Government's restoring the balance between university and vocational pathways. 

The Budget doubles Trades Academy places from 10,000 to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to training while at school. 

Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking it’s a full-circle moment – recognising how vital trades are in a tech-driven economy. 

He says AI can't build houses, and so many young people are coming into the workforce not ready. 

McDonald says the new Industry Skills Boards will help direct training to where demand is, as part of their role is to work with businesses and polytechs to ensure current and future gaps are filled. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

There’s a view the Government's restoring the balance between university and vocational pathways.&nbsp;
The Budget doubles Trades Academy places from 10,000 to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to training while at school.&nbsp;
Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking it’s a full-circle moment – recognising how vital trades are in a tech-driven economy.&nbsp;
He says AI can't build houses, and so many young people are coming into the workforce not ready.&nbsp;
McDonald says the new Industry Skills Boards will help direct training to where demand is, as part of their role is to work with businesses and polytechs to ensure current and future gaps are filled.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Alan McDonald: Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy on the focus on trades in Budget 2026

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/5f86b96d-91f2-4326-8bfd-b4580158731c/transcript

Finance Minister Nicola Willis hopes her Budget will convince voters to re-elect the Government in November. 

It includes significant investment in infrastructure and health. 

It also shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year – a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.  

Willis told Mike Hosking her message is simple. 

She says the Opposition would borrow and spend more, which would put the country's future at risk. 

The Finance Minister is also defending the new 1% levy on banks, insurers, and other financial market participants, which would be used to regulate the sector. 

Willis yesterday directed banks not to pass on the cost of the levy to their customers, saying they’re the most profitable companies in the country and do very well for themselves. 

Asked by Hosking why she didn’t increase tax on high-earning individuals like himself using the same logic, Willis said she didn’t want him “flying off overseas”. 

She says that the idea that taxing high-earners more and they’ll be more inclined to invest in New Zealand doesn’t make sense, but when it comes to banks, it’s a tiny, tiny levy relative to their bottom line.  

The move brings New Zealand into line with other countries like Australia and the UK, Willis says. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis hopes her Budget will convince voters to re-elect the Government in November.&nbsp;
It includes significant investment in infrastructure and health.&nbsp;
It also shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year – a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. &nbsp;
Willis told Mike Hosking her message is simple.&nbsp;
She says the Opposition would borrow and spend more, which would put the country's future at risk.&nbsp;
The Finance Minister is also defending the new 1% levy on banks, insurers, and other financial market participants, which would be used to regulate the sector.&nbsp;
Willis yesterday directed banks not to pass on the cost of the levy to their customers, saying they’re the most profitable companies in the country and do very well for themselves.&nbsp;
Asked by Hosking why she didn’t increase tax on high-earning individuals like himself using the same logic, Willis said she didn’t want him “flying off overseas”.&nbsp;
She says that the idea that taxing high-earners more and they’ll be more inclined to invest in New Zealand doesn’t make sense, but when it comes to banks, it’s a tiny, tiny levy relative to their bottom line. &nbsp;
The move brings New Zealand into line with other countries like Australia and the UK, Willis says.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Nicola Willis: Finance Minister on the reaction to Budget 2026, the levy on banks

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/183ee7ff-f9be-4659-844c-b45801514d4c/transcript

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

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