Economists' uncertainty regarding the Reserve Bank's upcoming Official Cash Rate moves speaks to how inconsistent its messaging has been. 

Stats NZ data has the unemployment rate at 4.6% in the June quarter, up from 4.4% in March. 

It's one factor the Reserve Bank considers when weighing up whether to cut the Official Cash Rate.

Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen told Mike Hosking a couple of banks are picking an August cut, others November, and some think next year. 

He says it's not that they're looking at the economic data and drawing different conclusions, they're looking at the data and wondering what on earth the Reserve Bank will do.

LISTEN ABOVE

Economists' uncertainty regarding the Reserve Bank's upcoming Official Cash Rate moves speaks to how inconsistent its messaging has been.  
Stats NZ data has the unemployment rate at 4.6% in the June quarter, up from 4.4% in March.  
It's one factor the Reserve Bank considers when weighing up whether to cut the Official Cash Rate. 
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen told Mike Hosking a couple of banks are picking an August cut, others November, and some think next year.  
He says it's not that they're looking at the economic data and drawing different conclusions, they're looking at the data and wondering what on earth the Reserve Bank will do. 
LISTEN ABOVE

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Chief Economist on the inconsistent messaging from the Reserve Bank and the uncertainty regarding cuts

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/278503b6-c82d-405e-9282-b1c5014db694/transcript

It’s an uncertain future for farmers, with global events making it harder to predict the milk price.  

Fonterra's midpoint payout forecast for the current season is $9.70.  

It's slightly up for next season, at $9.75, but it's signalling that could be as low as $8 or as high as $11.  

Dairy NZ Chief Executive Campbell Parker told Mike Hosking the gap is mirroring the current volatility, with the top end of last year about $10. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

It’s an uncertain future for farmers, with global events making it harder to predict the milk price. &nbsp;
Fonterra's midpoint payout forecast for the current season is $9.70. &nbsp;
It's slightly up for next season, at $9.75, but it's signalling that could be as low as $8 or as high as $11. &nbsp;
Dairy NZ Chief Executive Campbell Parker told Mike Hosking the gap is mirroring the current volatility, with the top end of last year about $10.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Campbell Parker: Dairy NZ CEO on the new dairy season, wide milk price range

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/07f22c28-19b2-4719-88c3-b458015ec538/transcript

There’s a view the Government's restoring the balance between university and vocational pathways. 

The Budget doubles Trades Academy places from 10,000 to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to training while at school. 

Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking it’s a full-circle moment – recognising how vital trades are in a tech-driven economy. 

He says AI can't build houses, and so many young people are coming into the workforce not ready. 

McDonald says the new Industry Skills Boards will help direct training to where demand is, as part of their role is to work with businesses and polytechs to ensure current and future gaps are filled. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

There’s a view the Government's restoring the balance between university and vocational pathways.&nbsp;
The Budget doubles Trades Academy places from 10,000 to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to training while at school.&nbsp;
Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking it’s a full-circle moment – recognising how vital trades are in a tech-driven economy.&nbsp;
He says AI can't build houses, and so many young people are coming into the workforce not ready.&nbsp;
McDonald says the new Industry Skills Boards will help direct training to where demand is, as part of their role is to work with businesses and polytechs to ensure current and future gaps are filled.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Alan McDonald: Employers and Manufacturers' Association Head of Advocacy on the focus on trades in Budget 2026

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/5f86b96d-91f2-4326-8bfd-b4580158731c/transcript

Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget. 

It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.    

Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism. 

The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity. 

He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year. 

Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget.&nbsp;
It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. &nbsp; &nbsp;
Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism.&nbsp;
The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity.&nbsp;
He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year.&nbsp;
Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Budget 2026, return to surplus coming a year earlier than expected

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/af10fda5-f338-4d13-932d-b4580153bacc/transcript

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Chief Economist on the inconsistent messaging from the Reserve Bank and the uncertainty regarding cuts

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