A lot of interest is expected in the by-election to fill the seat left empty by the death of Takutai Tarsh Kemp. 

The 50-year-old Te Pāti Māori MP died yesterday. 

Otago University law expert Andrew Geddis told Mike Hosking the Tamaki Makaurau seat was won by just 42 votes in 2023 and will be very tightly contested again. 

The complicating factor this time is likely to be sympathy, he says, suspecting that Te Pāti Māori will likely run strongly on a kind of legacy argument.  

The by-election could clash with local body elections. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

A lot of interest is expected in the by-election to fill the seat left empty by the death of Takutai Tarsh Kemp.&nbsp;
The 50-year-old Te Pāti Māori MP died yesterday.&nbsp;
Otago University law expert Andrew Geddis told Mike Hosking the Tamaki Makaurau seat was won by just 42 votes in 2023 and will be very tightly contested again.&nbsp;
The complicating factor this time is likely to be sympathy, he says, suspecting that Te Pāti Māori will likely run strongly on a kind of legacy argument. &nbsp;
The by-election could clash with local body elections.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Andrew Geddis: Otago University Law Expert on the Tamaki Makaurau by-election in the wake of Takutai Tarsh Kemp's death

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/becaad5a-6307-4626-8b49-b30801510436/transcript

In a year of wacky polls and debate, we have this morning probably the maddest result of all. 

Horizon research has either asked a leading or confusing question, or they have a misrepresentative group of people. Or the people who answered have other things in mind when they answered because the poll is about the fuel crisis. 

Now the fuel "crisis", such as it is, has not actually been a crisis. You might argue in price it has, but it's peaked and the fears of $200 a barrel never happened and never came close. 

The major worry, which lasted mainly in the minds of the thick and bewildered, was supply. Would we run out? Now that really would have been a crisis. 

But here is the reality – we didn’t run out. We were never going to run out and surely by now with the myriad of updates on storage and tankers it is abundantly clear we will be fine. 

Yet, here is your poll: 24% have no confidence at all in the Government to manage what they have already managed. 

32% have not very much confidence. So collectively that's 56%. 

How is it possible to say you don’t have confidence in an event that is already sorted? 

Unless, and here is where the poll might be an example of something to be wary of closer to the election, by “manage” do the 56% mean they wanted tax off, wanted a handout, wanted a price cap? So in not doing that to a larger extent than they did, is that failing to manage a crisis? 

The poll does not tell us this, mainly because it didn’t ask. 

Is the crisis about supply of petrol or the cost of it? 

And if it is about the cost of it, you not only have to ask about that, you then presumably have to follow up with a "what sort of support did you want?" type question. "How much would have been acceptable?" 

We know from Australia that they have handed out a fortune in freebies and people love them. 

There was one poll here that asked, "would you like a handout even if it meant a smaller Government tax take or a bigger debt pile" and the vast majority said yes please. 

So my view of this Government handling of the so-called "crisis" is they have done an exemplary job and one that has been recognised globally. 

But I didn’t want free money. If this poll truly represents the average New Zealand view of debt and the economy and political responsibility, then the Government is toast and we are on our way to third world status.   

In a year of wacky polls and debate, we have this morning probably the maddest result of all.&nbsp;
Horizon research has either asked a leading or confusing question, or they have a misrepresentative group of people. Or the people who answered have other things in mind when they answered because the poll is about the fuel crisis.&nbsp;
Now the fuel "crisis", such as it is, has not actually been a crisis. You might argue in price it has, but it's peaked and the fears of $200 a barrel never happened and never came close.&nbsp;
The major worry, which lasted mainly in the minds of the thick and bewildered, was supply. Would we run out? Now that really would have been a crisis.&nbsp;
But here is the reality – we didn’t run out. We were never going to run out and surely by now with the myriad of updates on storage and tankers it is abundantly clear we will be fine.&nbsp;
Yet, here is your poll: 24% have no confidence at all in the Government to manage what they have already managed.&nbsp;
32% have not very much confidence. So collectively that's 56%.&nbsp;
How is it possible to say you don’t have confidence in an event that is already sorted?&nbsp;
Unless, and here is where the poll might be an example of something to be wary of closer to the election, by “manage” do the 56% mean they wanted tax off, wanted a handout, wanted a price cap? So in not doing that to a larger extent than they did, is that failing to manage a crisis?&nbsp;
The poll does not tell us this, mainly because it didn’t ask.&nbsp;
Is the crisis about supply of petrol or the cost of it?&nbsp;
And if it is about the cost of it, you not only have to ask about that, you then presumably have to follow up with a "what sort of support did you want?" type question. "How much would have been acceptable?"&nbsp;
We know from Australia that they have handed out a fortune in freebies and people love them.&nbsp;
There was one poll here that asked, "would you like a handout even if it meant a smaller Government tax take or a bigger debt pile" and the vast majority said yes please.&nbsp;
So my view of this Government handling of the so-called "crisis" is they have done an exemplary job and one that has been recognised globally.&nbsp;
But I didn’t want free money. If this poll truly represents the average New Zealand view of debt and the economy and political responsibility, then the Government is toast and we are on our way to third world status. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: How do you not have confidence in an event already sorted?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/224e12ff-0e2e-439e-b001-b44101694861/transcript

It’s Politics Wednesday, and Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell are back to bicker and banter their way through the biggest political stories of the week so far. 

They discussed the new Horizon poll that showed the majority of Kiwis have little confidence in the Government’s ability to handle the fuel crisis and dug into how Andersen says Labour would’ve mitigated cost of living pressures.  

LISTEN ABOVE  

It’s Politics Wednesday, and Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell are back to bicker and banter their way through the biggest political stories of the week so far.&nbsp;
They discussed the new Horizon poll that showed the majority of Kiwis have little confidence in the Government’s ability to handle the fuel crisis and dug into how Andersen says Labour would’ve mitigated cost of living pressures. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Pollies: National's Mark Mitchell and Labour's Ginny Andersen talk the handling of the fuel crisis and cost of living

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9b7cbe7a-728c-4eec-87e2-b44101675bee/transcript

It's possible this year's running of the iconic annual Bluff Oyster Festival may be the last. 

Only half of the four-thousand tickets to the event, taking place on May 23, have been sold.  

Normally it's a sell out by now. 

Festival chair John Edminstin told Mike Hosking there were early fears about an oyster shortage, but that's eased.  

He says unless there's a freak storm in the next couple of weeks, there'll be five boats fishing for oysters right up until the festival opening.  

LISTEN ABOVE  

It's possible this year's running of the iconic annual Bluff Oyster Festival may be the last.&nbsp;
Only half of the four-thousand tickets to the event, taking place on May 23, have been sold. &nbsp;
Normally it's a sell out by now.&nbsp;
Festival chair John Edminstin told Mike Hosking there were early fears about an oyster shortage, but that's eased. &nbsp;
He says unless there's a freak storm in the next couple of weeks, there'll be five boats fishing for oysters right up until the festival opening. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

John Edminstin: Bluff Oyster Festival Chair on low ticket sales, the chance this will be the final year

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/dad4b13f-6225-4aaf-bc82-b4410162c4f7/transcript

Andrew Geddis: Otago University Law Expert on the Tamaki Makaurau by-election in the wake of Takutai Tarsh Kemp's death

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