šŸ‰ NRL Analysis - It's Grand Final Time

Published Oct 1, 2024, 11:00 AM

It's the final episode of the podcast for this season. The boys discuss the semi-finals and look forward to the Grand Finals on the weekend. WHO WILL WIN.

 

The Matty Johns Podcast is published twice weekly. Catch NRL analysis every Wednesday, featuring Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk, and family episodes featuring Trish, Jack, Cooper and Matty every Friday. 

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Better than the Lego better than the Lego.

Coops. Here we go.

We've made its final podcast. I think final one.

Off the top. I want to talk about the Panthers.

Firstly, let's talk about last weekend before we get into.

The Grand Final.

Off the top, one of the best thought out sequence plays that I've seen leading up to Penrith's first try starts off to Nathan Cleary London.

A little bit of pressure Penrith.

And forty twenty third tackle and you see when he works down, he walks down and he turns around, he can he'll start communicating what he wants from this next set, right is what we're going to do now this I just love the way they play this out. So they take it up firstly, which will be Leota to.

Go on full control of the team right there.

And you're watching here.

They hit the far post area, a little play for the player to start with, typically inside ball for jer Haaris. Then they lay the far past. Now watch Nathan here. This is crucial. He gets there and straight away he presents himself early, so carnally go here we go here, let's get up on him, up on him. No, we're going to take one more and it just it's wrong foot him. They're going to get back on the line and the next play he's caught him on their heels.

He did the similar thing in the Grand Final, kicked that forty twenty that ignited the comeback. He's picking on lazy wingers to start with, So when Nathan clearly wants to kick of forty twenty, he's up in the front line as opposed to behind Oao and then directing that set. I love the fact that Leo would carry with It's like telling a lie with a sequence, absolutely and then made them come up then go back. So there was multiple times whether the edge defense of the Sharks thought that Nathan was going to shift the time that they didn't have the energy of the line speed to get up. And it's picking on Nico Hines like he was under pressure. Putting runners inside and outside just made him make a decision, and.

He exactly targeting there and actually also targeting Tellerchuies his ability to have the gas and the tank to shut outside in, to shut the space, and he was slow to the part.

Play we'll come again this weekend.

Absolutely, we're going to talk about that in a second, because yeah, I found it interesting after the game the press conference with Ivan, I've got some thoughts about that. Firstly, the other one is we talk about the inside balls all the time, and a fellow said to me, why doesn't penwith just take just take the ball up, get forward, just w when Nathan handles the ball. When the ball hits Nathan's hands, most times the defense sort of sit on their heels and they freeze.

In fact, the defense sort of flexes open.

A little bit because they're so aware of his threat not just to run, but to push the ball to the edge. So a lot of times it's just always an easy ten meters for the middles. It's just a really simple basic thing. But again another thing that just takes pressure off his forwards.

Yeah, we'll talk about it in terms of what the storm have to do, but they have to counter that. Yeah, they have to get the line speed and shut that down. When you're in a rhythm like Nathan, what you need to do is throw him completely off. He needs to have one Some of those runners not get avare his line play the balls, so he feels like he has to go back to a normal one off carry. Get Mitch Kenny more involved, but it's the power of the Penith system at play.

One more thing on Penrith.

We're going to talk about this later, but watching the Penwouth big guys, they've been playing a really hard style of football for about five years, a lot of big games. To me, they just starting to look a little tired, don't. But there's certain things that I'm saying that they do. But what's helping their cause is the amount of work the outside backs to I mean, look at this is a typical set. They kick down field, Dylan Edwards, well, he does the initial run, gets forward, he plays the football surprise surprise on play two, so he punches forward that extra one or two movies through the leg drive he got Taruva then coming from the other side of the field to take the hit up. Now okay, first time we've soon a forward isaaah, take the ball up lightweight forward, then finish with Dylan Edwards again.

Then let's get it out of there.

That's just alleviating so much pressure off Fish and theoda.

It's conserving energy.

It's been effective, and that's the Penith system again at work and the outside backs.

Alamodi didn't have a carry.

He got that kick chase in so when one works, the other one rests, conserves energy and they compliment each other all over the field.

It's going to be a hell of a game.

And to be able to stop Penrith from winning Melbourne Storm, we have to stop some of that.

On Melbourne Storm, we'll talk about Nelson and the fact that he's likely to miss this or he's going to fight it. As we're recording this, he hasn't gone to judiciary. But the Storm the mental toughness to be leading at halftime twenty four to six, and then the Roosters come out a ten minute period and go try and try where it goes twenty four to twenty six. I Regon twenty four to eighteen. Sorry, I reckon most sides there would start to tighten up a little bit. They feel like we're on the slide of the moment and slung the other way. They didn't miss a beat. They met it with physicality and aggression and just bludgeoned over the top of the Rooster.

I thought that performance from Melbourne was an indication of a team at the peak of there powers right now. The week off after winning Week one, they were fresh. They just played everything faster, like they play the ball speed, their line speed, their skill and execution.

The try that hows.

Scored when Pabinow's and quick tap like that was just moving faster than the opposition. I like the fact that Storm a consistent team like Penrith. They don't give away cheap possession to the oppositions. But the good players are playing well jeez Like it's almost the perfect ingredients of a premiership winning team. Same as the Penrith path. You do the basics better than anyone else. I'm talking defendwell, completion rate, good kicking, good discipline. There are four things you must do.

In our game. They do it better than anyone else.

But then the rise to the top. Your best players need to be the best player and both teams are doing that.

Likes a fortune as far as injuries and freshness concerned, Like we have strength and conditioners and all this, but at the end of the day, sometimes it just lacks. Sometimes fatigue just gets indy at the back end of the year. Where with Melbourne this time all their creatives are fresh. So Munster's been preserved because of the fact he's had the injuries. He through the injuries, his peaked form Jerome's in the form of his life. Pappenhausen is finally fingers crossed through this horror period and is hitting top four and Harry Grant last year at this point Harry was he was wobbling, He looked just about going.

He looks tremendous.

I think this is.

Where this game is one and lost in terms of the storm Spine versus the best defense we've seen in a long time. If Penrith defensively can stop the storm Spine from running the ball yep, I think they win. If storm Spying get up and going, I think they win. That's where it sits for me, and I'm with you. I think Papenhausen, the footwork and acceleration of Munster and Hughes on either side. If you can get Papenhausen one on one speed like you did on the weekend to the Rooster's edge defenders, he is team for me. Could be the guy that just turns out one opportunity into a line breaker a try.

When you watch Jerown, who will go gun barrel straight, but then he'll hit pap and Hous on a sweep and suddenly he's going like a rocket.

He just pulls that defensi apart.

If we look at the first two Melbourne tries a perfect example. Luke here, like he's forcing experienced guys to break the cardinal rules of defense, don't slide till the ball goes pasture. But Luke is so urgent to try to protect the three on two on the edge that he slides. And it's similar to the next try again Luke. You watch Luke squeeze in here. But what happens is all of a sudden he's got to go on Paps and he can't help it.

Overchase.

And if I'm Melbourne Storm, I'm telling Ryan Papenhausen to stretch Nathan Cleary. When Nathan clearly has to stretch that army in a tackle and reach for someone like Papenhausen, that's when the shoulder might be in a really uncomfortable position because he can deal with things closed defensively, but when he's been stretched like that Jarring on the weekend, he had to have both armed stretched. So the speed of Papenhausen could be a huge indicator in this game.

Cooper, just two things for it's over to you.

Interesting start of the year interviewing Nathan Cleary, and he spoke about the twenty twenty loss to the Melbourne Storm and how that has made this playing squad been a big part of this dynasty from Penrith. He said, we went into that game and we look back now and we realize we'll playing like boys. They're playing like men, and they bullied us and we said never again.

Well it's come full sir. Yeah, so this is they're looking for payback.

Yeah, and it's going to be a huge game.

In terms of breaking this down, I was going to try and dive into a couple of things what the Storm must do to win and what Penrith must do. This is an odd one and I'd love your opinion on this. In terms of the kickoff to the contest, right, Nathan is the king of Penrith, and if you're going to go into you need to go after the king directly.

Now, this is a weird one.

If I'm the Melbourne Store, Nathan is at the forty meter line, just in off at the front line, I'm actually going to kick it to Nathan and I want him to take the first carry and I would make a statement physically about picking up dragging him out throwing him around, just make him he didn't land the ball about thirty meters other thirty meters a little sandwich and he has to get it.

And then just everyone take the handbreak off.

It's interesting.

So take that first contact out of his hand.

I'd almost give give away penalty if you if you want to rough him up, if you want to like stay at the top, lay down, whatever, don't give away ten in the bit.

I'm not saying going to break the.

Law, make a statement because he's the spirit of that team and it's a strange one to do off the kickoff, Like if I'm Melbourne, I'm choosing to kick off and I'd be doing that.

The other one we spoke about.

Is Paris turning the ball back inside right so they get a lot of momentum from that. They feel in the rhythm of their play. And this is them doing it on the weekend. See, our Sharks are just a little bit disconnected on the inside when they lay off. Sometimes they get it good, sometimes they miss the beat. Step up forward, this one moving forward. I like that from the Sharks. That's what the Storm have to do. If they're passive like that one. It allows Nathan to generate momentum and play the ball speed this one here, move forward, take the handbrake off. So I think defensively the middle forward line speed. Once they do those drop off players, He's a key for the Melbourne stim Yeah.

I totally agree with the coops and I think they Whilst I wouldn't go outside in aggressively, I think you need to squeeze in slightly because with Nathan, I'm just trying to think. I can't remember him going across an inside ball and going dummy under and throwing the long pass. Usually it's up hits it, undeath, or he's gonna dummy. He goes dummy and shoot.

And is when we talk about line speed to always talk about the edge of fence getting up in front of the middle, and sometimes the middle filling behind in case of a linebreak. What I'm saying is, don't worry about filling the behind, go forward. Particularly when Nathan runs across field. I almost would someone take the handbrake off and fire out a line like it's almost like outside in pressure but from the inside defense.

If that makes sense.

It does coop because you look and it's a lot we're talking about before is a lot. I thought that Kronulla paid too much respect for Nathan's ball playing, like when he was doing the inside balls, let's say before he caught and they went yep to hold hold and it's just easy meters where you're right.

You just got to get on the front foot and the last one.

And I think it works for the Storm.

Last time they played Perer, they scored two tries off kicks. They must compete on every fifth play tackle. This is the one kicking it straight. Here to deal with Edwards whin warbricks, some tall timber gets through and they must do this the Melbourne Storm if they had to win, I think they score a couple of tries off kicks. You've got to Edwards and Truber. Again, we always talk about it. Not the tallest of outside backs. But here bring to to the ballcha don't let him sit back on that ten meter line. We always talk about kicking the ball near the try line. Watch this foot leg speed, footsteps need to make Edwards and top Iron Thruver walk at those balls because as you showed before they catch, they run, they get their rid of they do anything. We always talk about trying to kick the ball as close to the trail. One as possible, I'm going to say, bring that ten to fifteen meters forward and make it a context.

Pushing back down'tum at all. And Two what coops.

It's funny how one thing you can do in the game well triggers into other areas.

So if you're doing.

That and you squash squashing their play one and you squashing their play two, suddenly the Penrith middles got to start working harder. Suddenly, then their middle start become more vulnerable for when the Storm start peppering the right through the middle of the field.

So three things I think Melbourne Storm sort of must do to win Flip side.

Well, the Panthers just once that you wrote something else down that you want to talk about.

This really interests me.

You said the Penrith interchange when there's an opportunity there when Leoder and Fisher Harris get replaced, a window where Melbourne need to pick up the temper yep.

So I think Melbourne can't get caught behind off the faster. I think they need to be equal with what Fisher, Harris and Leota do twenty minutes either side of halftime. When you see a chink in one of the best teams. I think it's their bench rotation. Melbourne Storm, Spine score points, run the ball twenty minutes either halftime. I think when Lindsey Smith, Liam Henry, whoever else they've got out there, that's the time for the Melbourne Storm to sort of go up again.

And it's interesting on the weekend, the moment Jared went off, there was a big change in the contest, Like Melbourne started winning the yardage battle and the Swine players started drawing through the middle.

So I think that's the period of time did they dominate. For Panthers, I think they've got to start when their big boppers are on. But they've got this presence with already winning three in a row. This is the last ride and they did it to the Rouses in Week one of the finals. Just that pure power game. As we film this, we don't know about Nelson. If Nelson's not playing, this one hundred percent has to happen. Just Leoda Fish Harris just bang down that front door and put the Melbourne Storm on the back foot.

It's finally keeps a lot with the Panthers the back third of the season. And we've spoken about this a few times is that they'd start that they were almost too happy to get into the arm wrestle and they started. They pride themselves on the kings of the arm wrestle on the grind, but they did too much of it in this game. What I liked about this game is they started fast and they gave themselves an opportunity to blow the roosters away.

Yeah, so let's say redline about eight or ten, just trying to conserve energy for the long game. They just dialed it up to nine and a half and blew the Russ away. I think that's what they need to do for the Melbourne Storm.

So that like a couple of years ago, Melbourne beat Penrith in Penrith and Penrith are on a big home run. Melbourne the first side for a long time to move them at home. I know for a fact going to that game. Melbourne's thing where we want to get to an arm wrestle with them because then we can do a Penrith on Penry.

I think they're one of the few teams that can do it. Like normally are we consider kicking into touch and of that to stop the back three. But I think Melbourne Storm can roll with Penrith in the long game. I think they've got the same fitness levels, the same endurance levels, the same game style that holds up for long periods. I think it's a big thing here because if they go ten, twelve to fifteen minutes of football in action, the first team that cracks, that's a mini win for the opposition.

How are they going to contain the creative team of Melbourne as a spine.

So as I said, I think this is where it's won or lost in this game.

It put a hell of a lot of pressure on the edgeback rolls in Garner and Martin. Martin will be up against Munster, Garner up against Hughes. If they have their best defensive performance in five years and shut down the running game of the spine of a Melbourne Storm, I think they win. Martin is an amazing back row. I think he can cover Munster. I don't know if Garner can stop Hughes, but that's where it sits for me. Those two halves can't get up and go, and if they've got a line break in them early in contest, like they're running game in the finals has been a lead, I think that is a good sign that Melbourne are getting on top. If they don't, it's a good sign that Peneth are getting job.

It's funny. It's not funny what I was saying. That's funny. Absolutely is it funny?

Hilarious the Melbourne Storm, there's no doubt the biggest threat for them is going through the middle. I mean they can push the ball at the edge, they're very good pushing the ball at the edge, but the primary threat is through the middle. So coops, if you're Melbourne, excuse me, if you're Penrith, do you just do you tighten a little bit more?

Yeah?

Yes, And I think you've got to be able to play different styles in this game because I feel like it's going to be a brutal game, but there's going to be a game of chest in the same part. And for scoring points for Penrith, I think they attack Melbourne's centers. Yeah, Jamini on the right, this is exactly the play that we spoke about early. This will be Nick Mennie on the right side. I think that play is coming. And on the other side you've got Jack Howerth so assimilarate this play that was weak one of the finals. See how Jack Herth gets caught in no man's land. I think that is absolutely a target for clearing his crew here again me no eyes for Swaliti out the back, good pass there, I think that's an opportunity that Peneth will be looking at. And then this one here, This came up last time they played from wide field positions, a threat of Zaio running the football, a little short pass, Howarth worried about Dylan Edwards. So I think you'll see a lot of action in and around the Storm centers once Penrith get down to their good baller.

And a few weeks here we said Isaiah ah As opposed to coming around on a traditional sweep stilled on my square, which made him straight and exposed young Jack even more.

Yeah, the running threat of Isaiah up against months that then made months to become more aware and that's when the gap was crewed. So a couple of things there to keep your eye on in this contest.

Cooper, we said before about Ivan and the press conference. Now, I have no doubt that they're going to go, particularly to Meani's side, because Meani and Will sometimes, like you just show, can get disconnected. Mooni has played most of his football Storm on the wing.

Or at fullback, so it's a new experience for him there.

But they can also just rush in blindly outside in It's almost like the principle of how Beliak wants to defend their neck tied to it sometimes as opposed to sitting and at times pulling out of that structure and just solving the problems.

He's saying that Ivan said what he said after the game, not based on what necessarily happened in that game, but all leaning towards that don't interfere with they are.

That that tells me because I was sitting watching Ivan press Cubs and he's going, I'm I'm really worried. I'm I'm having a lot of anxiety about that. I thought you're having anxiety about that live in my life.

It is a terrible decision and that gives me a lot of anxiety around next week if that bunk of fish I think was that was wrong and it's been happening all year and that Yeah, they shouldn't have even scored. You know, we shouldn't have been down there like we Actually that was the one time we sort of sort of our stuff out.

Round to play perfectly. Ran to his inside Childer.

He actually Siffer, Actually he actually initiated contact.

Yeah, so that worries.

Me about next week if that same bunk official, either he or someone else is going off the same script.

I'm concerned. But I'm having a lot of anxiety.

And I thought, well, the reason is that's where they're going to go in the Grand Final, and that's who they're going to right at the point, that's exactly the sequence they're going to play.

Yeah, I agree with you. I'd rather have Ivan's head noise than your head noise. But there's no doubt that I agreed with Ivan. I thought this was a poor decision. That is Talakai taking a dive and a bump into a player.

Yep.

One of the things that this game has done wrong, in my opinion is taken the football ex football person out of the bunker to give some football knowledge to it. But you might be right having that as a known fact that they will be targeting the centers of the Melbourne store and having that given no try.

I think that was a bad call.

And Asley came out today Gray man Azlein said it was a try.

Really interesting.

You got, mate, you got in this game? Give me winner score? Well, Churchill put you on the spot.

Now, look, this game could very easily because you've got two sides that are so close, two sides that are great at arm wrestle, and two creative players that are brilliant under pressure big game players. Everything to million points towards. It almost been a golden point type game. Just one or two points at the very end is going to split them. I look, I love the way the Melbourne Storm are playing. I think the Melbourne Storm look a little bit more fresh than the Penris side. However, right from the middle of the year, I've said that Penals will win the comp they'll go for in a row, so I'm going to stick with them.

Yeah, I agree with you.

I think it is going golden point Penish defense up against the running game of the Melbourne Storm spine. In big games normally defense overrules attack.

But I'm hoping that the Melbourne Storm can get it done.

Golden point twenty three to twenty two.

Okay, I'll go hmm, God, I'm indecisive today, didn't have breakfast. Love those fruit loops. I'll go twenty all into golden point. Nathan Cleary Key So twenty one twenty Clivee.

Churchill Medal Old Dylan Edwards. You don't go broke back in the day.

You didn't go break back in Bart Cummings of.

The Melbourne Cup. You don't go broke back in Dylan Edwards.

In big games, Yeah, I reckon Papous is the key for the Melbourne Storm.

Yeah, trigger game tee. What taught me through Munster?

Just quick the going into this game Like Munster in these really really big games.

He's almost got like this mindset that someone like Nicko Hines needs to take a bit out of. Like he will walk into a cour stadium on Sunday night thinking that he's about to dominate. He's like Leeds there of a rockband that walks out on stage and just when the bright lights turned on and turns it on. Liam Gallia, Yeah, overthings. I think when he overthinks it and gets too creative and too game of chess, he loses thrust. But I think he'll be a mars Man. I think Martin isn't going to miss his assignment. Hughes super confident, but it could be a big week for Jerome with everything that's going on, So I think they're sort of worried about it, and that's when it opens up for someone like Harry Grant will be making a lot of tackles. I just feel like Papenhausen might be the point of difference.

Remember a few years ago after when Melbourne the Grand Final and I asked Manster, I said to him, was on TV or radio. I said to him, so money, when when you call the ball and you're heading towards the line, what do you think about what you're looking for? Anyway, when I run to the line, he said, you gotta understand, I'm like that monkey who's got those two plate things all symbols.

I think you said that.

A couple of times since Jerome Hughes Delian medal.

He deserves it. Cops, been a great year. Well not good on you, mate. Now we'll run to you.

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