What They Don’t Want You to Know About Your Money! | Sam Callahan

Published Oct 10, 2024, 3:50 AM

 In this episode, I'm joined by Sam Callahan, a senior analyst at Swan Bitcoin. We dive into how governments can control your money with the click of a button, the risks of keeping your money in traditional banks, and the ongoing trend towards centralization. Sam explains why more people are turning to Bitcoin as a secure alternative that can't be tampered with by the government. We also explore the dangers of CBDCs and why saving in Bitcoin might be the smartest move you can make. 

Just imagine your money could be turned off with a click of a button from above, or you can't buy this amount of meat this month. So it's programmable, so that you could see how that could be used by the government in the various ways to stop people from spending their money the way that they want to and be used as a tool of oppression.

In the United States, the money in the bank isn't probably at super great risk. The bigger risk is more of a long term risk of continued centralization. And then you understand there's a solution like bitcoin. It makes it pretty obvious where the world would go to.

And so when you look at bitcoin, which is a decentralized version that's completely open and that's permissionless, that can't be tampered with by any single one entity or organization or government. That actually is a very good payment system as well. It's a payment system as well as a good store value all in this one beautiful new invention. That's the difference between Bitcoin and these other CBDCs. It's CBDCs are forced on people from the top, whereas bitcoins adopted from the ground up because people actually see the value in having something that can't be debased. That is out of the hands of the governments that mismanage their currency.

How should they average person think about getting in Is it too late for them?

Think of it as a way to save in something that can't be debased. And you just have to understand if if your life is feeling more expensive, you're probably saving in the wrong money, or at least you're thinking of the wrong money because the food's getting more expensive. It's because the money itself is losing value as the houses are all getting really expensive. It's a dollar can't buy as much house as it used to. But for people that have saved in bitcoin over the last three or four years, everything's getting cheaper.

I'm sitting down with Sam Callahan. He is the lead analyst. Senior analyst. Sorry, that's swam bitcoin. So swam bitcoin is a bitcoin only company that's really a media company first. I like to think of it as does an amazing job of putting out content, education and so anyway, he's the lead analyst. We're going to sit down. I want to talk today about the collapse of the banking system. You hear a lot about it. We see banks going down. Everyone still has PTSD from two thousand and eight. I think there's a little bit of a case of the generals fighting the last war, so to speak. We want to talk about the danger of the banking system, but not just in the United States, but globally, what's happening with that, the dangers of the central bank digital currency CBDCs, and ways that we can counter that. So, you know, jumping into this, let's just talk domestically. In the United States, we constantly hear headlines, well maybe not complete mainstream media headlines, but the banks were in trouble. We saw in twenty twenty three three banks collapse, which were actually bigger than like the two thousand and eight banking collapse. And I know for myself getting hit really hard in two thousand and eight, twenty twelve, thirteen fourteen, I didn't trust the banks, and that's actually what led me to bitcoin. In twenty fifteen, I was in the process of getting money out of the banks to put into a Panama bank account. So I thought the banks and Panama were capitalized better than the US banks, and I just said, well, bitcoin's actually the same thing. I'll just do that. But I had PTSD from banks collapse, so a lot of people do. We saw the bank's collapsing. So what's the status of the banks domestically, we'll start with that right now.

Well, basically, the Federal Reserve was able to put a band aid all over that. So they came out with their new program, the Bank Term Funding Program, which actually did really well to kind of quell the problems going on there. But you're right, it was the second and third largest bank failures in US history. Now, there's a lot of blame to go around, but I think part of the blame has to go on the banks themselves for poor risk management because a lot of their depositors were very concentrated in tech, like overly concentrated in tech, overly concentrated in cryptocurrencies, and so when there was a lot of issues in those sectors, they saw a lot of panic and a lot of their deposits flew all out. At the same time, then you had this traditional bank run. But at the same time, you could also blame the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve didn't provide guidance and said, hey, we're gonna keep rates low, We're not even thinking about raising rates. All these banks said, Okay, we're going to buy all these bonds at really low rates, and then lo and behold, the FED went on one of the fastest rate hike cycles in its history. So totally screwed these banks who bought all these bonds and then suddenly they got all these depositors flooded out. At the same time they have to sell the bonds at a loss, and that's how these banks got into huge problems. But right now, like I said, they kind of papered it all over and so you could say that they were in trouble. But now it seems like things are kind of for the time being, kind of calmed down. But there are some risks there. There's risks with the commercial real estate exposure with some of these regional banks. And I think we spoke about this a little bit before, but what happened in the aftermath is actually just more concentration of the banking sector. JP Morgan Chase was actually one of the big beneficiaries of those collapses. They picked up First Republic for pennies on the dollars. They had record profits last year. So this is what typically happens, is you have more and more concentration. One bank failure that I think still people forget about. It wasn't a failure, but it should have been. Was credit sweet, It was a shotgun acquisition. Regulators came in gave UBS a really sweet deal on a Sunday afternoon, saying, hey, you guys have to acquire this global systemically important bank. If that thing would have toppled, we would probably had a contagion event. But now we have more concentration. UBS is one of the largest banks in the world because they just acquired one of their biggest rivals. And so when you have concentration, more concentration of the banking sector, it leads to long term fragility, right, because if something happens to those bigger banks down the road, well, then it's even more risk of a contagion event, more problems. And so this is kind of like the trend we've seen over the last twenty years of just more and more bank concentration, and that leads to single points of failure and more fragility over the long term. And then things like moral hazard, right if they just think they're going to get bailed out, if the Fed's going to them out, and just you know, put these new acronyms in place and paper things over, then these banks are thinking, well, I can take as much risk as I want, and so you can kind of see how those two things, more concentration, more more hazard, can create more problems in the future. So that's kind of how I see it. We'd love to hear your thoughts too well.

The way I think about it is that the banks are almost becoming like utilities for the government, if you will, instead of businesses, like almost like utilities in a sense where they're being required to buy these government bonds. Yeah, because the government is spending so much money, they need to sell the bonds to raise the money. And if there's not enough buyers, then the banks will be those buyers, and so and almost being forced to be those buyers, if you will. And then to your point, they bought them thinking because the Fed told them they were going to keep rates low, he said, yeah, not thinking about not thinking about thinking about raising rates. I think he said for four years they would keep rates down, and within two years they jacked them up. So they got caught off sides. And so the banks are sitting on the largest losses we've seen in history, but it's paper losses. So they put the money into government bonds and the value of those bonds have fallen. However, if they're able to hold those to maturity, they don't actually lose money. And the problem is that redemption. But they're becoming these utilities and they're being forced into that, and they're going to be continued to be bailed out based off of that, and I think it's important to understand what that means. Well from my point of view anyway, I want to get to the concentration piece. But when you say that it creates moral hazard because people think they're going to be bailed out, they will be. They will be bailed out because the government can't allow anyone to have money in the banks to lose that money. So we have like FDI and C insurance which is up to two hundred ffty thousand dollars. But if people lose their money, everyone's going to pull the money out of the banks, so they can't have that. And so the reason why I think about this is that to your point, they came up with this BTFP funding thing, and who knows how many more programs will have to inject money in the bank to prevent this. So from my perspective, the way I think about it is the FED is telling us they're tightening, They're going to continue to tighten the monetary supply in the market, but I know that they're going to keep injecting money into the banks, which increased the liquidity in the system. That's kind of the way I look at it selfishly. I'm curious if you think about the same way.

No, I think that the same way. I mean, the FED showed their cards. They can talk a tough game, but when push comes to show, once things started to crack once again, the FDI, see, the FED, the Treasury all included together to come in and say things come in and intervene. And that was the hand. And so if something big comes down the road, what you're going to see is more liquidity programs. It's going to be a different name, but it's going to have the same outcome, which is pumping liquidity into the system preventing any kind of collapse from happening. And so in that scenario, you know there's a couple of things, which is you'd want to own things that are scarce. Right if liquidity comes into the system, usually scarce assets do well. But one of the things from working at SWAN, people started to understand like, hey, when I had my money at the bank, my bank, my money's not there, like these banks turn around and bet with it and I might not have access to it. And so we started to people started to understand the counterparty risk that they take when they trust a bank to safeguard their assets. And so you have to start thinking about, you know, do you actually own your wealth when you trust the third party.

Let's put a pin in that when we come back to that. So we're definitely going to talk about practical, practical things that we can do to protect ourselves in benefit. Even I think as this goes on, that's the way I look at it. These are not good things. These are all bad things. I wish they weren't happening. Scared for my kids and my future generations. But at the same time, we can use them to our advantage. So we'll talk about that. But let's let's get back to this issue. So I think we agree, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I think we agree that the fear of having money in the bank and losing it is overblown. The real fear or risk is the concentration in the banks. Would you agree with that statement.

Because I only agree with that statement because they will come in and build things out, right, right, So I agree.

I agree. Yeah. Now, legally the money in the bank is not your money legally, right, so it's owed to you. The debt. It's a debt, so the bank's owed to you, which is why they can do what they want with it. As a matter of fact, I'm raising money for a public deal right now, and someone was trying to wire money in and the bank said, why are you sending this money and said, oh, this seems to be related to bitcoin and cryptocurrency. We won't allow you to send it Fidelity. Was it Fidelity? I have it on my phone. I forget what a major bank? Finealit is pretty crypto friendly, one of the big banks, and they wouldn't allow them to transfer money. And they're going through this whole process right now. So the banks can actually do that. And so my fear, going back to the real fears not so much that I'll lose my money. Maybe it gets it could hypothetically get negotiated down if the bank's collapsed and FDIC had to pay it get negotiated down through some sort of like a bankruptcy settlement. But I think the bigger fear is this concentration you're talking about. And instead of this decentralized banking system where like I have a local bank, my local banker knows what I need, he can give me a loan for my small business. Now all the decisions are being made by some conglomerate bank JP Morgan out of New York who.

Doesn't know me, And maybe there's less.

Small business funding out hand. And so if we see a concentration in the banking system, we see a concentration through the economy as well.

Yeah, when you look at the concentration that's happened in the banking system over the last since the pandemic happened, Really we know from like the PPP loans and some of these programs that the small regional banks were absolutely critical for small businesses. That's where a lot of the rural communities depend on their local, smaller regional banks, and those are the ones that are closing their doors at an increasing alarming rate. And so when you to think about things like financial inclusion, that's the people that are going to hurt are the people that don't really have access to banking and then you know, the concentration of the banks is a problem too, because, like you kind of were alluding to, there's not as much competition, so these large banks can do whatever they want in terms of jacking up fees on their customers, maybe doing something even more you know, in terms of freedom, like surveillance programs. I think that's that like in a CBDC, like incorporating these programs, that there's really no competition to fight back against it because it's only like four banks that are servicing most of the country, you know, and they're really tied into the Federal Reserve and the government. And you can see how this could become a problem if they start to unload some of these new technologies that infringe on you know, privacy and basic human rights. It would be really hard for people to fight back against it if they don't have other options to turn to up you know.

Yeah, and we don't have a small local storat shop too, so we're limited on what we can buy. We only can buy from big conglomerates. We can go to Target and we can buy the five or six things they have on the shelf, but we can't get the special thing in.

The pandemic, right, right, they kept Walmart open. But all this is right, and I think there was a reason behind that.

Yeah. So then as we see this concentration happening, and it's not just happening in the United States, it's happening globally. So as you mentioned, credit Suite went down, got acquired by UBS, what's happening through Europe as well. So we're starting to see this concentration continue to happen. Then you mentioned, let's jump into the next topic. You mentioned then the risk of having something like a central bank digital currency. So ideally a central bank digital currency means it's the central bank that issues the currency, as opposed to like a local bank. And so as we consolidate and can concentrate that down, then that risk becomes even more apparent. I suppose. Now different countries are in different stages of this. I know you've done a ton of work on this. So we were talking before we kind of jumped down live here in Europe they seemed to be well. Of course, China was the first one to roll theres out, no doubt, right, Communist China, of course they did. Europe seems to be hot on the trail doing that as well, maybe pushing it much before the United States kind of tell us what's going on with that.

Yeah, I'd say out of all the Western countries ECB and the EU or the furthest along to a retail CBDC. And I think just for people who aren't familiar with it, CBDC, I mean, just imagine your money could be turned off with a click of a button from above, and so it could be programmed to say you can only use it at certain times of the day, or you can't buy this amount of meat this month. So it's programmable, so that you could see how that could be used by the government in the various ways to stop people from spending their money the way that they want to and be used as a tool of oppression. And so it's really dangerous concept and China has proven this right. Some of the things that have happened in China with their CBDCs is like protesters not being able to access the public transportation to congregate together when they're trying to dissent. And you know, the digital euro is really trucking along. Despite the public comments saying we don't want this thing, they continue to build it out and they're probably going to launch it in twenty twenty five, and they just give an update. And it's really interesting because when you have a CBDC that's issued by the central bank, like you said, that is technically safer than regular commercial bank money because a central bank can't go bankrupt, right, you can't lose access to it because they have access to a money printer. You'd rather own a CBDC that doesn't have that, you know, default risk than a commercial bank money. And so what they're worried about is people taking their money out of the banks and put it into the CBDCs and disintermediating them. And their solution. Who's worried about that essential banks and the banks.

So I could see the banks being worried aby they don't want to get put out of business.

Yeah, the central banks are worried because they're like, well, this could actually create a lot of financial instability and cause like a crash of the banking sector. And that's what the banks are worried about too. Hey, you're going to take our cheapest source of funding, all of our deposits. And this is a problem when we need funding and to make loans in the economy. If we don't have the deposits, then we're not going to make as many loans in the economy, and then we're going to have a crash because it's just like financial instability, not as much obviously in a debt fuel economy. If you're not making loans, you can see how that would hurt economic growth. And so these banks are worried about it. And so the ECB's solution, and all these central bank solutions is to put caps on the CBDCs. Hey, you can only own three thousand dollars worth of CBDCs at any point in time. We're going to put strict limits from the get go in this so that people can't take too much money out of the banks, and so they understand this risk. Now, the interesting part is that there's a pilot program happening in India that have been doing this for years with those limits, and the National Bureau of Economic Research just put out a stack and it said, hey, we had these limits. It's still resulted in significant bank disintermediation. And so they're still going trucking along saying, hey, we got the solution. We're going to put these limits, which, by the way, it is funny to think about like the money itself already has limits and capital controls from the get go, but not only that, but it doesn't stop the disintermediate from the banks. And so these things are extremely risky, not from just a human rights standpoint, but also from a financial instability standpoint. And then the other thing that I'll say is that they need it to get adopted. Right, people said they don't want it because of all these problems we talked about with privacy, and so these central banks are going to launch it like the ECB, and they have to get people to adopt it, merchants to adopt it. Well, how do they do it in India was they actually taxed all the other payment rails and so they heavily tax every other option to basically silo people into these CBDCs. So it gives you an idea of maybe one of the strategies that the ECB and these other ones are going to take, which just tax all the other options bring people into it. And then you can obviously see how it could be a problem to the banks, but also to just basic human rights privacies.

And what they did in India it really started. I think maybe if you look backwards now a couple of years ago where I think maybe it was twenty sixteen. Actually they took their large banknotes and they said, hey, these banknotes are going to be phased out. We're no longer going to have them. And I forget what they were at the time of the denominations, but it was very, very low amounts, and they said, hey, you have I think it was thirty days or sixty days to turn these in and get compensated for them because they're going to be phased out. But in India they have a big cash economy there, so people had been stockpiling cash for decades or maybe even generations, and they said, hey, if you have to go turn this in or it's worth nothing. Oh and by the way, you need to prove to us where you got the money from. And if you can't prove to us where you got the money from, either one you're going to suffer MASSI attacks like fifty percent tax or lose it all completely. And so they first had to bring all that in, then they started to tax all those other areas. So it's like that slowly, like the pig and the fence, like one piece of offense and the second piece of offense and slowly start to kind of bring back.

They had like a very short amount of time to even bring them in too, like months.

Yeah, it was like thirty or.

Six, like thirty days, and hey, bring in all your cash in thirty days or else it's completely worthless. Yeah, just a complete shit show.

Yeah, we've seen Nigeria has been rolling out something similar. They've been doing this eira for a long time, and the een Ira is also their CBDC. And in Nigeria they had already been using bitcoin because the inflation rate was so high, and the people said, well, why would we use this enira. It's like the same thing as the regular and irs inflationary, and so they tried the carrot and the stick. First it was discounts if you used the enira on your petty cabs, things like that, and then eventually the stick came out, which is, hey, we're going to penalize you if you don't use it.

Yeah, and it still didn't where they work though. That's the thing.

Yeah, people just don't want it.

That's the difference between Bitcoin and these other CBDCs. It's CBDCs are forced on people from the top, whereas Bitcoin's adopted from the ground up because people actually see the value in having something that can't be debased, that is out of the hands of the governments that mismanage their currencies. I mean, it's very easy for people in Nigeria to understand why they want to hold something that the government can get their hands on because their inflation rates and the triple digits dealt with it for a long time. We just imagine your savings just literally lose its value overnight, your wealth that you worked hard to accumulate. So that's why bitcoin adoption rates in Iceria.

I want to come back to the solutions later, but I want to keep building up some of this week because I think it's important we understand, like how it's happening in other countries, then we can start to see that path.

Right.

Yeah. So another thing I wanted to bring up though, is this disintermediation of the banks that you're talking about, and it's not just for us. It was like happening globally and so also at the same time we have like this whole bricks block rising of so Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and now a lot of nations are joined, knows, and so you sort of have like the US dollar system, banking system, if you will, but now there's this like sort of alternative banking system that's popping up. Big news went round and round a couple of weeks ago about Saudi Arabia not renewing the petro dollar agreement that they had and how that's going to be the death of the dollar. What's your take on what happened with Saudi Arabia, the petro dollar and sort of this new financial block sort of starting to separate from the US dollar system.

Well, it seems like things came to a head when the United States sees Russians the Russia treasury reserves. Yeah, that's when everybody woke up to the fact that hey, actually the system can be weaponized against US if the United States doesn't agree with our policies. And so you've seen a shift in how many commodities are priced in other currencies. You've seen central banks around the world to increase their goal buying at historic rates. They're trying to diversify their reserves away from treasuries because now there's a risk that they have to take into account. It's that the United States has come in and seize them or they could block themselves, block them off from the Swiss system. And you've really seen this. There's a book called Treasury Wars that goes into this. In the last twenty years, you've seen the weaponization of the United States dollar and a whole dollars, the Swiss system, the payment system, and so I think you're seeing these countries start to think about that more. And so when you look at Saudi Arabia going and building relations with Russia and China, and they're starting to build out this Mbridge CBDC program that's basically a CBDC system where they could transact with each other very seamlessly. It probably is a far aways away, but it kind of is a signal to where the trend going, which is they're trying to build other systems to compete with the US dollar system because they have to protect themselves. It's just incentives, right, They're just trying to protect their own interests because there is something going on with the United States weaponizing the system against them, so they have to basically.

Well, some of them are forced out of necessity, like Russia. Yes, you're kicked out, So what do you do? Do you just go die? Or do you find it our system. So some of them are forced by necessity, and then others are preemptively trying to protect themselves. So China said, we'll shoot if that can happen to Russia, and every other nation is doing the same thing. Well, if that can happen to them, it can happen to us. So they're being forced into it and then preemptively kind of protecting themselves. One thing that people will say quite often is that you can't just go replace the dollar because the dollar more than just a currency. It's a payment network, right, It's the most globally recognized payment network in the world. And you can't just replace the correspondent banks that send the money around the swiftests and that sends money around, or the bond market, because no one's going to invest into the Russian bond market the Chinese bond market. What is your counter to that? Do you agree with.

Well, no, I do agree with that, and I think it's a long ways away from displacing the dollar.

When you say a long way away, what is that, I would say decades.

I mean unless there's some kind of hyperinflationary right one decade or are like three or four decades I would lean towards three or four decades. You know, I don't really know for sure, but the network effect the dollars is real, and you know, I think if you just look at the stable coin growth, like people want dollars. There's actually a shortage of dollars, I would say, around the world, and people want the dollar because compared to other fiat currencies, it is the strongest one. Same with the debt market, it's it's by far the most liquid debt market. And if you're going to hold the debt of a country, it's you know, are you gonna in terms of risk? If you compare the United States with some of these other ones, I mean, they have the reserve currency. We have the largest economy, largest strongest financial markets. We in our you know, our country was founded under the premise that we respect property rights.

You know, these things was founded on that. Yeah.

So you know, it's hard to pick like a competitor, competing product.

Let me throw out some competitors, right, So there's no other bond market to invest into. I would agree with that, right, But you could just buy gold. Yeah, So we're seeing that there is no replacement for the correspondent banks in the Swift system, but we could just use the m Bridge system, which is early. But I think they've done you know, a billion dollars billion, I mean half a trillion dollars of transactions over it already. Yeah, so they don't have to buy another treasury. Treasuries just could be out inside money, as ultim poser calls it. They could just buy commodities. Yeah, and they don't have to use Swift, they could use Mbridge.

Maybe, I would say, I mean even still, like Mbridge is so far away. I mean that's like not that much volume. And honestly, they're coming into the same problems as the correspound the banking system because the reason the correspondent the banking system is so expensive is because of the differentferences in laws between the jurisdictions, and so they have to somehow in the Enbridge program make them all interoperable while complying with the local laws. And so it's really tricky. And so interoperability is the name of the game. And if you just have these siloed payment systems, you're not really solving the problem. You need it to be interoperable with everything, which is I mean, I know, keep bringing it back biggly, but like really, I mean having an open source protocol that's completely interoperable, that's actually what they need. But they're building these like siloed closed systems, and so I think it's going to take a while, even if it's better speeds and fees for them to overtake anything like the source system. I mean that has like what fifty years of a head start right now, even though it's inefficient, it has those risks. I mean, there is a network effect there, and so I just think it is probably decades away. But like I said, it's kind of like the trend is clear what they're trying to do, whether they'll be successful. But then I mean, you brought I didn't know this, but like the basket of from the Russian the NDB, like that was interesting, the new currency you talk about that because I find that really interesting.

So what he's talking about is about a month ago in Russia they held a meeting a Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, so another economic forum, and specifically to counter the World Economic Forum. So everyone thinks that the World Economic Forum and the US and we're having this one world government. But that's that's over. Like the dream of that is over at this point. I mean the last couple of weeks we saw Klaus Schwab being taken down with allegations of sexual misconduct, and like when they're taking him down, right, you're starting to see that. I think he announced he's stepping down. So anyway, Russia had a meeting and they created one Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, and in that about a month ago, they announced a new currency that they're calling the Unit, and the unit will be backed. It's by the NDB, which is the New Development Bank, which is sort of this bricks blocks counter to the World Bank. And this new unit will be backed forty percent by a weight of gold, not a dollar amount, but a weight of gold, sort of like how currency used to be, and then a sixty percent as a basket of the currencies, which is sort of what John Mayner Kenes has had wanted to happen out of the Breton Word's agreement to have sort of this basket of currencies. So let's talk about how we protect ourselves now. You know, I wanted to set up the problem. It's important to understand the problem. I believe I could sometimes come across as a doom and gloom kind of guy, because I talk about problems, but I think about as problems creates or solutions come to problems, And I think it's important to understand the problem so you can plan to how do I protect myself If someone said, Hey, they're going to come break into my front door, then I'm going to barricade my front door. I'm going to make sure I have an escape out the back, right, So I just I want to know the attack vector so I can plan appropriately. So that's why I want to kind of spend some time doing that, so sort of set up the problems that we're seeing right now. And so if we kind of paraphrase this real quickly or summarize it really quickly. In the United States, the money in the bank isn't probably at super great risk. The bigger risk is more of a long term risk of continued centralization. But at the same time the world is starting to decentralize the banking system intermediate the banking system. We sort of have these two opposing forces. When you understand that, and then you understand there's a solution like bitcoin, it makes it pretty obvious where the world would go to go ahead and break that down how the average person could kind of think about that.

Well, it's pretty simple. I mean, when you look at the banking system and the concentration, there is a certain amount of trust that you're having, and you're trusting these organizations to manage the money appropriately, but also to not incorporate Triculian type implementations of security and surveillance and things like that. And so when you look at bitcoin, which is a decentralized version that's completely open and that's permissionless, that can't be tampered with by any single one entity or organization or government. That actually is a very good payment system as well. It's a payment system as well as a good store value all in this one beautiful new invention. And so when you look at a decentralized system where you remove the need for trust, you don't have to trust these banks anymore, and you're free to use it at your own will and you're using a form of money that can't be tampered with or manipulated. I think more and more people are going to understand the value of that, and they're going to continue to flock to bitcoin like they have. I mean, there's a reason why it's becoming more and more popular over the years. If you just look at it anecdotally, you don't even have to be a fan of bitcoin, but just ask yourself, is bitcoin more popular than it was four years ago? I mean the answer is definitively yes.

I mean, let me answer that because it's something I said at dinner last night. Yesterday, big news announcement came out that President Trump will be speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in like two weeks.

Yeah, it's crazy.

So we have an event, the Bitcoin Conference in Miami. The two years ago was twenty five thousand people. I'm not sure what the attendants will be this year. Fifteen thousand people call it fifteen twenty thousand people will be there. You have President Trump, lots of politicians will be there, the top Wall Street people, the top fintech people will be there. Some of the best coders and engineers in the world will be there. Some of the best entertainers in the world will be there. I think it could be the biggest, most culturally important event going on in the world, at least the United States. It's not just a magic internet money. This is the biggest event. Fifteen twenty thousand people with the biggest people, including the President Trump all there.

Yeah, we're talking about the largest wealthiest financial institutions, the black Rocks of the world, and the fidelities of the world. Golden Sacks is just announced that they're getting into the game again. So I mean this is and then you got the largest, you know, probably the most popular person on the planet. Right now, Trump is speaking at bitcoin and now one of the major political parties has incorporated into its official policy platform, right see, Yeah, saying that hey, we're gonna we're gonna support bitcoin, We're going to denounce CBDCs, we're gonna support the abilities people to take custody of it, We're gonna support bitcoin mining. And why is that? I think they're just starting to understand that this is a really really important technology to embrace for really the competitiveness of the United States on a global scale. And I agree with you completely. I mean, what other conference in the world brings together that kind of wealth and influence. I mean, you'd have to think like Domos, But that's a whole other type of influence we're talking about there. That's more like, you know, power and control, whereas this is just like innovation and and and pushing forward this technology that actually brings power back to the people. And so it's it's exciting. I mean, it's very, very different than it was four years ago, that's for sure. I Mean the stakes are a lot higher. It's a lot it's matured a lot. It's it's it's really coming onto the world stage in a meaningful way at this point.

Yeah. I mean you have President Trump and RFK Junior have both uh not just endorsed it, but embraced it. You have nations like El Salvador. That's that's that's been a global miracle. And President Bekaeley is now going and talking with other world leaders about about making this shift. Has definitely gone from again that magic internet money to being on the world stage. And so so for everyone listening, I think we've already kind stupp the problem and the solution. It seems inevitable. But how should they average person think about getting in? Is it too late for them? How do they think about, you know, saving in it versus investing in it and things like that.

Yeah, So I always like to tell people that think really long term when they purchase bitcoin, think of it as a way to save in something that can't be debased, and you just have to understand if if your life is feeling more expensive, you're probably saving in the wrong money, or at least you're thinking of the wrong money because the food's getting more expensive. It's because the money itself is losing value as the houses are all getting really expensive. It's a dollar can't buy as much house as it used to. But for people that have saved in bitcoin over the last three or four years, everything's getting cheaper. And why is that. It's because you can't print more bitcoin. It's actually a scarce asset that actually increases in value as they continue to debase the other currency. And so you have to just think about, hey, yes, this think can move in the short term, the price in fiat terms can move in the short term, but I own something that's very, very scarce that is actually going to benefit from the continued money printing that's going to happen in the future. And so I always recommend people just zoom out understand that as bitcoin gets adopted, as this trend continues, that it becomes more popular, more influential, as the governments and major financial institutions continue to build on it. And we're still in the very early days of this, there's only one thing that can happen to Bitcoin's price because the supply is completely fixed, and so if there's more demand for something that's fixed, it's just basic supplying demand economics. Where the price is it's going to go up in value, and so, yes, it's going to be choppy, it's going to be it's a choppy ride. But when you think long term about what you actually want to save your wealth into the next ten, twenty fifty years, it's hard to look at any other investment that has the same asymmetric profile or opportunity as bitcoin today. It's you know, we can get into like other like real estate has issues, it's it has maintenance issues, it's physical, there's natural disasters, there's there could be changes in tax policies, it could be seased easily. Like so it's like, do I want to own that for fifty hundred years? I don't know where I want to buy some stocks. Most businesses fail over a long period of time, majority of them fail. Do I want to hold stocks of a specific company or index funds where most of them are duds? I don't know, Like probably not. I want to own something that I know is going to be scarce, and it's going to be around for the next fifty or hundred years. And that's why I think people should own bitcoin and think very, very long term about holding on to it.

Good. Do we have any questions anybody want to ask us, Sam or myself any questions?

I'm none that what do you bring norpe Jay ask at Dumbai. Oh cool, that's great, I'm like tired and sell it long middle Yeah, that's I mean, that's great. I think a small amount goes a long way too in a portfolio. That's the one thing I'd say too, is you know, you don't have to buy like one hundred percent of your net worth into bitcoin. Even one percent five percent has been shown to have meaningful difference to a portfolio because it moves differently than the rest of your portfolio. And then also, if we're even remotely right about where this could be going, you know, one percent allocation to five percent, it's going to grow pretty meaningfully and in a short time it could actually make up a greater percentage of your role net worth. But like, position sizing is important for people because it's very volatile. You don't want to overexpose yourself and get worried about, you know, being down fifty twenty percent whatever it is. And so it's just about risk management. So there's nothing wrong with that. I always just recommend people purchase what they feel comfortable with. But the wrong allocation is zero. That's what I would say today. Yeah, yeah, questions the other three analysts.

I didn't say the Swift Well, I think we were talking about M Bridge project M Bridge, which is from the BIS banker and with the letter M. Yeah, the letter M yep so M and then bridge and so that's being built by the BIS Bank of the National Settlements and that is a new way for countries to pay each other basically.

Yeah, it's like a Hong Kong Bank of China, Saudi Arabia, UAE. They're all kind of piloting this new system of CBDCs together to try to, you know, like you said, kind of compete with Swift dere c. We see what's going online. Well, well, bick, today, the US owns two hundred and three thirteen thousand bitcoin, so they're actually the fifth largest holder at bitcoin just from Caesars over the years, and they have been sold it, so technically they already owned bitcoin, right now do I think that like the Federal Reserve is going to buy it and put it on the balance sheet.

I mean maybe if they were smart.

If they were smart, I mean like they've still owned some gold on there.

So the flip side to that is maybe what might go down is maybe one of the worst moves in history from a government is right now Germany has been sitting on billions of dollars of bitcoin and they've been selling it all and there's been talks of the US selling their bitcoin as well. But it would be like, you know, I live at the beach, I own the beach, and I have you know, one of I own all the sand because I owned the beach, and I have one thing, one scarce asset that I'm going to trade the sam for more sand. Yeah, I already have the sand. Why would I get if the one scarce assaf from our sands. So the US is literally going to give up could potentially or Germany's giving up their scarceass or their biitcoin for more currency that they print that. It doesn't make any.

Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. It reminds me of in the past where you know, tribes of these seashells as currencies in the past, and then they come in like somebody foreigner comes in and they have other precious resources, and then they bring the seashells from somewhere else and they say, oh, yeah, I'll give my precious like gold or whatever, and I'll take more sea shells. You know, it's the same thing. They're trading something very scarce for something that, like you said, they can print. And so Germany's I think they've sold Similarly, they had fifty thousand bitcoin sees from a movie's piracy site. They've sold off.

I think at least half of it, seventy five percent.

I think I think they sold up bout thirty thousand bitcoin, and I think when they look back on that, I mean, that's going to be very very silly, they're going to really kick Yeah. But the yeah, US government has sold a little bit here there, but they still they like I said, they still own two hundred and thirteen thousand, or about two hundred ten thousand I think right now. And you got to think why they aren't selling like Germany. You know, they've held on to it for many, many years, and there's.

Been some talk. We'll say, let's say rumors coming out of the Trump administration about potentially starting like a strategic bitcoin allocation for the United States. Nothing official, it's rumors on the wire, so to speak.

Yeah, right now, El Salvador is in the lead. So Lavador buys a bitcoin a day. They're stacking sat slowly, just at the government level. And the thing about bitcoin is it really it is really a first mover or advantage for people adopting it. That's the game theory. If you decide to sell your bitcoin or not adopt it, somebody else is going to do that. And so if they continue to benefit from bitcoin like El Salvador is doing right now, eventually nations are going to wake up and look at that and be like, well, maybe we should just buy a little bit too, And then you see how this could be a flywheel of momentum for bitcoin. And beauty about bitcoin is everybody benefits who owns bitcoin at that point. And so very early days though, I mean it's like early days with the institutionalization of bitcoin, with these large Wall Street firms and nation state adoption, we are really just like right at the startup bat So when people say they're late, I think that's nonsense. I think we're very very early. Bitcoin's about fifteen years old. I think it's very very early days for bitcoin still. I mean, just look around in this room right now.

You know everyone's still out there looking at gold. All right, Well, I think we'll wrap it up with oh, okay, go ahead, thanking question per se.

But this is my first heading cycle that goes through.

I've been and wall for about three years now.

I'm curious about the minor response to reduction in bitcoin harvesting they can do how long you're typical they'd last.

Since I've not seen this before, I'm curious what curious people will think it's going to have. Then.

Yeah, so you're right. So after the having like bitcoin, bitcoin miners main revenue gets cut in half, I would say this time around, I feel like the mining industry really prepared themselves, I would say compared to previous cycles. And the way they prepared themselves is they kind of built up their treasuries a little bit. They have larger cast positions as well as bitcoin positions. They also they have more of a buffer, and then they really updated the efficiencies of their fleets to like the newest machines, and so they kind of prepared for this eventuality, and you kind of see this because you didn't see as much hash rate drop off right after the having, whereas previous cycles you see a really steep decline and hash rate because a lot of miners became unprofitable. And right now, I mean the price is going sideways, so yeah, that too. I mean you also had the price going up all time highs before this having, which never happened before, so there's a little bit boost from the price action as well. But right now price is just going sideways, and so these miners are kind of like, you know, hoping that it goes back up. They're kind of maybe selling a little bit of bit going they have, They're kind of draining their reserves a little bit. They're also looking to diversify their revenue streams like AIS making a comeback now and all these headlines about pitcoin miners, but a lot of them locked in these good power contracts and just they're surviving right now, and I think they've actually done really well. I think you might see some more consolidation in the mining industry. You might see some acquisitions. There was just one with Grid and clean Spark just the other day, So you might see some more consolidation in the mining industry acquisitions, mergers, but right now, I'm pretty I think they're doing pretty well, and I think they're just hoping that the price is going to do what it usually does with previous having cycles, which around like six months four to six months afterwards you start to see a run up in price, and I think these miners are hoping that happens again.

So I don't know Mark anything, No, I mean, I would agree with that. You know, the bitcoin mining space is very competitive, and so you have, you know, potentially your your single biggest expense is the power that you're paying for, and so different people have different power prices and contracts locked in at different rates, and so what happens typically is the miners that are the least efficient, you know, either they spend too much electricity or they just their machines are older to the point that they made whatever, they'll start shutting off first, right, which then the distribution of those coins then go down to everybody else down below for everybody that doesn't know what that means. If the price of gold were to go to ten thousand dollars an ounce tomorrow, then theoretically we would have way more people going to mine bold and the rate of new gold coming out of the ground would increase rapidly. But when the price of bitcoin goes up, there's no ability to get more bitcoin out of the ground. So right now there's four and a half bitcoin every ten minutes. There was a four and fifteen bitcoin a day, I believe is what's coming. New new supply being created. And even if the price of biccoin went to whatever, ten million dollars tomorrow, more people go mine it, but you couldn't get more out. And so what happens is the supply, the new supply always stays the same, And if some of the miners were to shut down because they were no longer profitable, the same four and fifty will still be created. It would just be split between a small group of people. But I think one other thing that maybe I'm just curious your take has maybe been helpful, is is bigcoin miners actually make money in two ways. They make it through the new supply issuance, but they also make it through fees from processing transactions. And we have seen the fees for transactions have gone up, at least temporarily spiked up. Do you think that really helped offset.

That around the time of the happening. That really helped offset it at least for like the first month. That's kind of drained back down that some of the you know, speculation around these ordinals and inscriptions have kind of died down of late, but that kind of drove fees up, which really helped the miners at the beginning, right kind of, But that's kind of died down now, so fees are kind of back down and will that spike again potentially, But I don't think miners are kind of like betting on that, you know, because you know, that would be kind of a risky thing to do. So, like the fee marketing bitcoin fluctuates pretty randomly, so could it happen, yes, But I actually I would think that that was maybe like a little bit of a one off demand, Like maybe it might come back a little bit if there's a lot of speculative fervor that comes into the market, more retail investors, new entrants come in, that could bring the fees back up, but you know that maybe that's like next year or something. I think there is still like a spucketive mania part of the cycle that hasn't happened yet Yeah,

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