Bitcoin just hit one hundred thousand, and now it's pulling back. So is this the moment that everyone's been waiting for or the one they've been fearing? But what if I told you it's totally different. What if I told you this isn't just another milestone, It's actually part of a three hundred year pattern that predicts exactly what happens next. Now, for the last three centuries, this pattern has repeated itself five times, reshaping technology, wealth, and even the world. Now bitcoin is following the same blueprint. But what it means for the future is where things get truly shocking. So in this video, I'm gonna break down this three hundred year pattern. I'm gonna show you what it reveals about bitcoin's next move and why this moment could define the future of wealth creation, and give us a playbook for how to navigate all of this. My name is Mark Moss. I've been making videos on bitcoin for about eight years. I coached thousands of investors on investing. I'm a partner of a leading bitcoin venture capital fund called the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund on the cvo of Matador, a new public bitcoin company, and these models are what we use as our guides, So stick around because what happens next might surprise you and could even change everything. So let's go all right, So we're gonna jump right into this and we're gonna show you, using historical models where bitcoin goes well into the future. So the first thing is has bitcoin hit the ceiling or is this a new floor? Now we hit one hundred thousand dollars and yes, it has been pulling back at the time this recording depends on when you're watching this, So is this a by the dip moment or is it sell it short before it goes out? Is one hundred thousand the top? And really where does it go? Now? We have to understand that when prices are going up, there's psychological levels. So when bitcoin hit a thousand, that was a psychological level. When it got to ten thousand, it was a level, and now at one hundred thousand, it's a level. So we want to know where does it go from here? Is it too late, is it too expensive? Or are we going much higher much faster. Well, there's a couple of things we want to look at. So first of all, as I said, right, depending on when you're watching this, the price of bitcoin is pulling back from that level, the psychological level of one hundred thousand. But I want to show right we sat at this level. You have to understand things move up and down, and now we're in that same sort of a range. But remember this is a psychological level, and then we'll use history to see where we go. And one of the things that's happening from the psychological level is Bloomberg, which makes the Bloomberg terminal. You see me using charts from Bloomberg terminal all the time. It's about twenty to thirty thousand a month for a subscription to it to pull charts. This is where I mean, if you're can afford thirty thousand a month, this is where the institutional allocators play. And you can see in the Bloomberg terminal it now shows the bitcoin price as a percentage of one million, so it's no longer showing eighty thousand or one hundred thousand, it's now showing it as zero point one million. Of the reason why this is important is because what's known as unit bias. So a lot of people think that bitcoin's too expensive, so I'll buy something cheaper like those coin for example. The unit bias makes them think that they should buy something cheaper. But now the unit bias of allocators, institutional allocators now shows it as a fraction of one million. What do you think that does to the psychological level of these institutional allocators. The reason why I point at that for a second is because a lot of times when we're looking at macroeconomic pictures, we're looking at what central bankers and policies will do. You can't just look at the data. This is the gripe that I have with a lot of the people that are on YouTube, that I'm friends with, I speak at conferences with that are very very smart, some of them smarter than me, But they take out they don't take into account the psychological level, the psychological reasons behind these. They look at the data only, and you miss out a big piece. Now, another big psychological piece that we can talk about is Trump, who now wants to be the bitcoin president. As a matter of fact, he tweeted out congratulates in bitcoin on this one hundred thousand dollars level. He said, you're welcome. So think about this from a psychological level. Trump has now taken credit for the price hitting that level. I don't give him credit for it, but he's taking credit for it. So now psychologically he doesn't want to let that fall. He wants bitcoin to be his legacy making America great again. So where does that take bitcoin? How do we put that into account? Now? The last thing I want to say before I jump in and show you the historical model that's been hit three hundred times five times. Before I say that, I want to just say one more thing about union bias, and that is, if you think about bitcoin hitting one hundred thousand or whatever, it's ninety five thousand today, is it too late? And the question I would ask is the problem that most amateur what we call the dumb money. There's the smart money, which is institution allocators. There's a dumb money, which includes you and I. What the dumb money gets wrong is that most of those are looking in the rear view mirror. So what do I mean by that. Let's just use real estate for an example. You know my real estate background. A lot of people that I worked with, invested with, even my family had bought a lot of properties in Florida going into the twenty two thousand and five six two thousand and seven, when the real estate market was taking off, of course, that real estate market crash and the great financial crash of two thousand and eight. The bottom of that market happened around twenty eleven twenty twelve for most of most of the US, so the bottom was set in which was way cheaper than where it had been in two thousand and five, two thousand and six, two thousand and seven, So twenty twelve was the bottom, and then the price started going back up again. By two fourteen, twenty fifteen, Florida had started getting pretty good again. The prices were pretty high, and a lot of investors, real estate investors at the time, were saying, oh no, it's way too expensive. It's way too expensive. And I said too expensive compared to what right our brains are comparing mechanisms. They were looking in the rear view. Well, it was too expensive. It was way more expensive than it was in twenty twelve at the very bottom. It wasn't more expensive from where it was in two thousand and eight at the peak, and it certainly wasn't expensive compared to where it was going as in like twenty twenty, twenty twenty one. But it was too expensive compared to where it was. They were looking in the rearview mirror. That's what a lot of people get wrong about bitcoin. It's too expensive because it used to be ten cents or thirty cents or one thousand or ten thousand or fifty thousand, and now it's one hundred thousand. You're looking in the rearview. What we want to do is we want to look in the windshields. You should be driving in the windshield now, in your rearview. This is what venture capital investors do. This is what we do in my venture capital fund. We look at a brand new company, it's just starting, maybe no revenues yet, and we try to think, in the windshield, where will this be? How much could it be in the future. We don't go, well, you just started, it's worth nothing, so it's too expensive now. No, we're looking at a forward looking and so let me show you how we can use history to then project forward. Okay, So the first thing we'll do is we'll go backwards in history. Then we'll go forward into the windshield. Okay, so three hundred years of data. It's pretty good. It's pretty comprehensive. As a matter of fact, if you think about it, and if we think about things in terms of cycles, which I use a lot of, and when you think in terms of technical analysis, we have things that what we'd call maybe a triple top before breakout, or sometimes there's a triple bottom before it falls down. And what happens is each time it tests that level, it builds up strength, It builds up energy for a bigger move. Now, what happens is as it continues to test and retest and retest, it builds confidence that will happen. Let me give you an example. So most of you, if you're watching this video, you probably already know about bitcoin. You know that every four years there's a having cycle, so that means the new supply bitcoin being added gets cut in half every four years. Now, you can see that we've had four of these having cycles so far, the first Having cycle, second, third, fourth, and you can see that each one leads to a big move up because it's a supply shock, supply and demand. You cut the supply in half, the price moves up. Now I think there's something deeper. I think it has to do with global liquidity cycles. We're not going to get into that right now. Another video on that leave me a comment down below, But about each every four years, the supply gets cut in half, the price moves up. This pattern has basically repeated every Having cycle now for four times. When I ask people, do you think it's gonna happen again a fifth time, most people would say yes, it's happened four times, almost identical. Why wouldn't it continue to happen on the fifth time? Okay, So that means there's four times. That means the confidence of it happened at fifth time is higher. Now if it happens ten times, the confidence that happened another time is even higher. Right, Okay, So let's take a look at this cycle that's happened five times, and we're on our sixth time right now, and you might say, well, there's pretty good chance it repeats again, and I would say yes. So about every fifty years, we have what I call this quantum leap, this technological cycle that happens where the world moves in this quantum leap. It's happened one, two, three, four, five times, and it's now happening. It's six times more than the Bitcoin Having cycle, and it's played out almost identical every single time. And the beauty is that we can use this historical cycle. So then overlay into the technology cycle that we're having today. Now, one important piece is not just about bitcoin. It's what I'm calling the decentralized revolution. So it's a cluster of technology, several technologies that come together to give us a new set of building blocks. So we have bitcoin, we have AI, we have quantum computing. All of that coming together could give us a new set of building blocks. So now we're on the sixth one. That's happened, all right, So let's take a look at what this pattern is that unfolds and how repeatable, how reliable this pattern is. So we have to understand that there's four different phases inside of this fifty year cycle. Now it's not exactly fifty years. It could be forty, it could be seventy, but it's around that range. And we know there's four phases into that. Now it sort of looks like this. There's two stages and there's four periods. And this is another term in technology, we'd call this diffusion. So long for this technology to reach adoption, so we have what's known as the big bang, and it goes into the eruption phase is where this new technology storms the scene. So to speak erupts. Then we have the frenzy phase. Then we have what's called the synergy phase, and then finally the maturity phase. Now it's important to note that it takes over where one cycle is ending the next one is beginning. So personal computers, telecom Internet was the last cycle, the last fifty year cycle. I'm going to show you more about that in a minute. And what happened is that Internet, all of that started failing, They started getting to centralized starts falling apart. So we have the birth of a news system that will take over that energy. But there's the eruption frenzy. Those are two phases in the first part, and then we have synergy and maturity the two phases in the last one. And it always works this way, and then we'll have the next big bang in the next cycle. We'll start from there. Now, if I overlay this with time periods, just so you can see what we're looking at. This is twenty ten to twenty twenty, that's the first phase. Twenty twenty to twenty thirty phase number two, twenty thirty to number forty, phase number three, and twenty forty to twenty fifty would be phase four. And that would complete this fifty year cycle within this and you might recognize this pattern right here if you're a technology person. I'm going to come back to that in a minute, but let me give you some examples of history. So remember the last one started nineteen seventy one, and this was the microprocessor, which brought personal computers, telecom and the internet. So so the microprocess was the first one. Nineteen seventy one, the birth of the microprocessor with Intel. Now what's important is if you map this from an investor standpoint, a price level standpoint, you map this technology cycle over with the price you see Intel here, and what you see for the first cycle, first part of the cycle, first twenty years, Intel price went up twenty three thousand percent in price. Twenty three thousand percent in price. Now that went up so cross, so much, so crazy that everyone looked at the Intaeil said that's got to be a bubble. It's so expensive. There's no way it can go from here. I need to go find the next microprocessor. I need to find a cheaper microprocessor. Because it went up twenty three thousand percent. I missed out. Oh always me, I never catch these, et cetera, et cetera. But what happened is that was phase one. A small business owner, are you buried in all types of work keeping you from the real thing that makes you money? Well that's where just Works comes in. They're the all in one platform that supports small business growth. You can get all their tools that help with benefits like payroll and HR and compliance with transparent pricing. Now they help you hire top talent internationally, internew markets, quickly scale international operations without the workload, and for every how do I do it? Question? You can reach out to their expert staff from sole proprietor or a team of twenty. Just Works empowers all kinds of small businesses with real human support. So visit justworks dot com slash podcast to join thousands of small businesses that trust Just Works to take care of payroll, benefits, compliance and more. Again that's just Works dot com slash podcast. In phase two, right here, it went up another twenty six thousand percent. So everyone sat on the sidelines. Oh I missed out, it's too late, it's too expensive. Why didn't I get in earlier? And it went up even more twenty six thousand percent. Now I can show you example after example and I'm gonna show you some more. It wasn't just Intel, it wasn't just microprocessors. As a matter of fact, like I said, the microprocessor brought us the boom of the computer and telecom and all of those we can see here Apple. So then the microprocessor brought us personal computers. Now, Apple went up one point five million percent one point five million percent in this first phase. And again everyone said, oh I missed it, it's too late. Why didn't I buy it? I always miss these things, and they sat on the sidelines. And then Apple went into phase two and went up another fifty thousand percent from there, an enormous amount. And so what happens is you can see these cycles are dependable, reliable. Microsoft I believe, went up about was it thirty forty thousand percent in phase one, phase two, went up over a million percent in phase two. Well, everyone sat on the sidelines, thinking that they missed it, that it's too expensive, not realizing that these things move in cycles. That makes sense, all right. So now that you understand that, you've seen the historical relation to that, let's overlay this and look at where we are in this new age of decentralization and bitcoin, et cetera. Okay, so the first thing you have to understand is that there's again four phases and we can overlay them with phase one twenty ten or twenty twenty being this eruption phase, and really it's the age of retail. So there's the very first part of the technology of diffusion where just the true believers, the early adopters, the tinkers, the nerds, if you will, they all start to come to play. It's a very small piece that's retail. But what happens is in phase two, as we move from the first phase into phase two, it's now called the frenzy phase. Now this is where we start getting wider adoption, where a lot more people coming. It's been proven out by the true believers, the early adopters, and now everybody else wants to jump in and get a piece of the pie. And this is really illustrated through the institutional phase. So right now you know the institutions, the wall streets, the ETFs, the black Rocks, and yes, even the governments, the sovereigns are starting to come into this institutional phase, which is why it's a frenzy, which is why it's starting to move so fast. Okay, Now if we take that and we overlay it with another chart, so we can understand this a little bit better. We have the same chart now, but now I've put something called an S curve onto ear. An S curve is a tool that we can use to measure adoption of technology, but you can use it to measure the things like viruses, even things like that, And it's a way to measure how fast adoption could get through a society. So basically, the way it works is the time it takes to go from zero to ten percent adoption is the same amount of time it takes to go from ten percent to ninety percent adoption. All right, that's the way this move. So now we overlay the four different phases of the fifty year cycle, and we overlay it with an S curve. And what we see is that while this part of the move, again with Intel and Apple and even with Bitcoin, everybody thinks they missed out. Oh my gosh, it moves so much, I wish I would have bought it before, So they sat on the sidelines. We can see why the second part of the move is the biggest part of the move, the frenzy. It's where the institutions, where the sovereigns where they come in. And I've put some green lines here show and illustrate this how big of this move. It's instead of moving linear, it starts to move parabolic. You can see that move right there, and that's why everyone thinks where this red line is they've missed out. But the biggest move is here. Remember Phase one is retail, you and I, and sure billions, hundreds of billions of dollars came into the space. Certainly we saw it go up. But now with the frenzy phase, with the institutions and the sovereigns, we're talking about trillions of dollars much bigger. The move in front of us is going to be much bigger than most people can even imagine. Okay, now where does that put us at the end of this phase two? Now we can go to phase three in phase four, and that's for another video. But where does that put us at the end of phase two which will be somewhere around twenty thirty? So is it too late for bitcoins? Should I short it? Should I sell it? Should I get out of it? Will it keep going up? Should I go hunt for some smaller coins? They're going to be more explosive. Is it going to boom or bust? Well, remember, we can measure the slope, so when we look at that S curve, it helps us understand where that's going. But what we want to do is we want to look at some historical numbers, and then we want to look at some growth drivers, and then we want to project that into the forward. This is what a venture capital would do if you're investing in new technologies like Uber and Airbnb. This is what you would do. Is how we do it. Okay, so we measured the slope. I showed you that it goes nonlinear but instead parabolic. So we understand that that means the growth, the rate of growth should change. Okay, So we want to look at the historical numbers and then we want to understand the drivers of these numbers. So let me show you a couple of things. First of all, I've talked about this before. So bitcoin is not competing as a new technology, it's not competing as a payment network. It's competing against the store of value assets value itself. So we look at assets that are store by assets like gold, collectibles, equities, real estate, bonds, money, et cetera. So if I was pitching on Uber or Airbnb, we would say, well, Airbnb is competing against hotels. So the hotel industry is this big, the total addressable market the TAM. If I could take x percentage, five percent, ten percent from the TAM of the hotel market, it'd be worth this much. Uber disrupting taxis, limos, vans, et cetera. So Bitcoin is taking value. It's disrupting all these store value assets. It'll take a little bit from gold, a little bit from collectibles, equities, et cetera. Now, this is from twenty twenty to where I project things to be a twenty thirty. Let's just start here. The money supply was ninety five trillion dollars in twenty twenty, and I projected to be somewhere around two hundred and five trillion, which is eight percent growth throughout the decade. Now eight percent is a little bit low. Now the reason why is not only do we have historical numbers, but we also look at the growth of this. So the government, the United States government, the US dollar, the reserve currency the world. The CBO is the Congressional Budget Office. They give us these numbers. They project out where we'll be through the next thirty years by twenty fifty four. Now, currently the money supply the FED balance sheet is growing by thirteen percent a year, so I've only put eight percent. I'm undershooting this a little bit to give us a little bit of conservative numbers. Bonds hundred trillion and twenty twenty, I project them to grow by five percent a year to four eighty eight. Now, if you understand this, I talk about this all the time. When the money supply goes up, real estate in equities are basically perfect proxies for those. So I put them going up by eight percent. Real estate goes to seven hundred trillion, Equities goes to two hundred and five trillion, Gold goes from eleven point five right now, I think we're about fourteen to fifteen, it goes to twenty trillion, and I project bitcoins it started at five hundred and thirty billion or point five trillion, twenty twenty, we'll get to twenty one trillion market cap, which is only a fifty percent growth rate. Now, when I say only fifty percent per year right now, the last four to five years it's been going up about sixty percent, So I project it will slow down a little bit going into the rest of the decade and end up at about twenty one trillion market cap. Now, to put this into some perspective for us, that means total store value assets go up to about one point six almost one point seven quadrillion by that time. At that point, bitcoin has only captured one point twenty five percent of the store of value assets. It's about on par with gold. Now, what does that look like a lot of people think that in order to get there, that you know, the dollar has to die, all these assets have to die. That's not the case. If we look at the store of value assets, we see real estate is the largest store valo as at seven hundred trillion, bonds four hundred eighty trillion, equities two hundred trillion, money two hundred and five trillion, And at this point, by twenty thirty, gold and bitcoin are basically about the same size twenty twenty one trillion. So Bitcoin has grown by taking a little bit of value from each one of these, but none of them are dead, nor is the dollar. A lot of people think, we alleah, when bitcoin's worth one million dollars, then what's the dollar worth? How much is the tank of gas. It doesn't mean the dollar dies. It means that it pulls value from each of those now only taking one percent one and a quarter percent, Now is that realistic? Remember, if I think like a venture capitalist, we would say what markets are we disrupting? Remember Uber and Airbnb are disrupting van taxi rides or hotels? Now we would project at what percentage do we think is realistic to capture over what period of time? And so we'd say, well, how much do I think bitcoin can pull from those others? Is one percent realistic? Well? What did Airbnb and Uber do? Well, we know that in the first ten years Uber and Airbnb launched. Within the first ten years, they were able to capture take ten percent of their market shares, ten percent in less than ten years. Now we're projecting Bitcoin by twenty thirty to only get one and a quarter percent, which I think seems pretty low. I think it's a conservative estimate. Now, where does it be in twenty go, in twenty forty and twenty fifty that's for another video. But then again, think about this, So back to the question, is it too late? Is bitcoin too expensive? Too expensive compared to what? Too expensive compared to where it was when it was ten cents one thousand dollars or ten thousand or or is it too expensive compared to where it is going to be in twenty thirty, twenty forty and twenty fifty. If I believe as I do, it'll be worth one million and twenty thirty. But I can buy it today for only one hundred thousand. Sounds very cheap, But let me know what you think. Put it down the scription down below, in the comments down below, mine of them you think if you want to release the other videos for twenty forty and twenty fifty, leave me a comment and let me know. And that's what I got, all right, to your success. I'm out,

Bitcoin just hit one hundred thousand, and now it's pulling back. So is this the moment that everyone's been waiting for or the one they've been fearing? But what if I told you it's totally different. What if I told you this isn't just another milestone, It's actually part of a three hundred year pattern that predicts exactly what happens next. Now, for the last three centuries, this pattern has repeated itself five times, reshaping technology, wealth, and even the world. Now bitcoin is following the same blueprint. But what it means for the future is where things get truly shocking. So in this video, I'm gonna break down this three hundred year pattern. I'm gonna show you what it reveals about bitcoin's next move and why this moment could define the future of wealth creation, and give us a playbook for how to navigate all of this. My name is Mark Moss. I've been making videos on bitcoin for about eight years. I coached thousands of investors on investing. I'm a partner of a leading bitcoin venture capital fund called the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund on the cvo of Matador, a new public bitcoin company, and these models are what we use as our guides, So stick around because what happens next might surprise you and could even change everything. So let's go all right, So we're gonna jump right into this and we're gonna show you, using historical models where bitcoin goes well into the future. So the first thing is has bitcoin hit the ceiling or is this a new floor? Now we hit one hundred thousand dollars and yes, it has been pulling back at the time this recording depends on when you're watching this, So is this a by the dip moment or is it sell it short before it goes out? Is one hundred thousand the top? And really where does it go? Now? We have to understand that when prices are going up, there's psychological levels. So when bitcoin hit a thousand, that was a psychological level. When it got to ten thousand, it was a level, and now at one hundred thousand, it's a level. So we want to know where does it go from here? Is it too late, is it too expensive? Or are we going much higher much faster. Well, there's a couple of things we want to look at. So first of all, as I said, right, depending on when you're watching this, the price of bitcoin is pulling back from that level, the psychological level of one hundred thousand. But I want to show right we sat at this level. You have to understand things move up and down, and now we're in that same sort of a range. But remember this is a psychological level, and then we'll use history to see where we go. And one of the things that's happening from the psychological level is Bloomberg, which makes the Bloomberg terminal. You see me using charts from Bloomberg terminal all the time. It's about twenty to thirty thousand a month for a subscription to it to pull charts. This is where I mean, if you're can afford thirty thousand a month, this is where the institutional allocators play. And you can see in the Bloomberg terminal it now shows the bitcoin price as a percentage of one million, so it's no longer showing eighty thousand or one hundred thousand, it's now showing it as zero point one million. Of the reason why this is important is because what's known as unit bias. So a lot of people think that bitcoin's too expensive, so I'll buy something cheaper like those coin for example. The unit bias makes them think that they should buy something cheaper. But now the unit bias of allocators, institutional allocators now shows it as a fraction of one million. What do you think that does to the psychological level of these institutional allocators. The reason why I point at that for a second is because a lot of times when we're looking at macroeconomic pictures, we're looking at what central bankers and policies will do. You can't just look at the data. This is the gripe that I have with a lot of the people that are on YouTube, that I'm friends with, I speak at conferences with that are very very smart, some of them smarter than me, But they take out they don't take into account the psychological level, the psychological reasons behind these. They look at the data only, and you miss out a big piece. Now, another big psychological piece that we can talk about is Trump, who now wants to be the bitcoin president. As a matter of fact, he tweeted out congratulates in bitcoin on this one hundred thousand dollars level. He said, you're welcome. So think about this from a psychological level. Trump has now taken credit for the price hitting that level. I don't give him credit for it, but he's taking credit for it. So now psychologically he doesn't want to let that fall. He wants bitcoin to be his legacy making America great again. So where does that take bitcoin? How do we put that into account? Now? The last thing I want to say before I jump in and show you the historical model that's been hit three hundred times five times. Before I say that, I want to just say one more thing about union bias, and that is, if you think about bitcoin hitting one hundred thousand or whatever, it's ninety five thousand today, is it too late? And the question I would ask is the problem that most amateur what we call the dumb money. There's the smart money, which is institution allocators. There's a dumb money, which includes you and I. What the dumb money gets wrong is that most of those are looking in the rear view mirror. So what do I mean by that. Let's just use real estate for an example. You know my real estate background. A lot of people that I worked with, invested with, even my family had bought a lot of properties in Florida going into the twenty two thousand and five six two thousand and seven, when the real estate market was taking off, of course, that real estate market crash and the great financial crash of two thousand and eight. The bottom of that market happened around twenty eleven twenty twelve for most of most of the US, so the bottom was set in which was way cheaper than where it had been in two thousand and five, two thousand and six, two thousand and seven, So twenty twelve was the bottom, and then the price started going back up again. By two fourteen, twenty fifteen, Florida had started getting pretty good again. The prices were pretty high, and a lot of investors, real estate investors at the time, were saying, oh no, it's way too expensive. It's way too expensive. And I said too expensive compared to what right our brains are comparing mechanisms. They were looking in the rear view. Well, it was too expensive. It was way more expensive than it was in twenty twelve at the very bottom. It wasn't more expensive from where it was in two thousand and eight at the peak, and it certainly wasn't expensive compared to where it was going as in like twenty twenty, twenty twenty one. But it was too expensive compared to where it was. They were looking in the rearview mirror. That's what a lot of people get wrong about bitcoin. It's too expensive because it used to be ten cents or thirty cents or one thousand or ten thousand or fifty thousand, and now it's one hundred thousand. You're looking in the rearview. What we want to do is we want to look in the windshields. You should be driving in the windshield now, in your rearview. This is what venture capital investors do. This is what we do in my venture capital fund. We look at a brand new company, it's just starting, maybe no revenues yet, and we try to think, in the windshield, where will this be? How much could it be in the future. We don't go, well, you just started, it's worth nothing, so it's too expensive now. No, we're looking at a forward looking and so let me show you how we can use history to then project forward. Okay, So the first thing we'll do is we'll go backwards in history. Then we'll go forward into the windshield. Okay, so three hundred years of data. It's pretty good. It's pretty comprehensive. As a matter of fact, if you think about it, and if we think about things in terms of cycles, which I use a lot of, and when you think in terms of technical analysis, we have things that what we'd call maybe a triple top before breakout, or sometimes there's a triple bottom before it falls down. And what happens is each time it tests that level, it builds up strength, It builds up energy for a bigger move. Now, what happens is as it continues to test and retest and retest, it builds confidence that will happen. Let me give you an example. So most of you, if you're watching this video, you probably already know about bitcoin. You know that every four years there's a having cycle, so that means the new supply bitcoin being added gets cut in half every four years. Now, you can see that we've had four of these having cycles so far, the first Having cycle, second, third, fourth, and you can see that each one leads to a big move up because it's a supply shock, supply and demand. You cut the supply in half, the price moves up. Now I think there's something deeper. I think it has to do with global liquidity cycles. We're not going to get into that right now. Another video on that leave me a comment down below, But about each every four years, the supply gets cut in half, the price moves up. This pattern has basically repeated every Having cycle now for four times. When I ask people, do you think it's gonna happen again a fifth time, most people would say yes, it's happened four times, almost identical. Why wouldn't it continue to happen on the fifth time? Okay, So that means there's four times. That means the confidence of it happened at fifth time is higher. Now if it happens ten times, the confidence that happened another time is even higher. Right, Okay, So let's take a look at this cycle that's happened five times, and we're on our sixth time right now, and you might say, well, there's pretty good chance it repeats again, and I would say yes. So about every fifty years, we have what I call this quantum leap, this technological cycle that happens where the world moves in this quantum leap. It's happened one, two, three, four, five times, and it's now happening. It's six times more than the Bitcoin Having cycle, and it's played out almost identical every single time. And the beauty is that we can use this historical cycle. So then overlay into the technology cycle that we're having today. Now, one important piece is not just about bitcoin. It's what I'm calling the decentralized revolution. So it's a cluster of technology, several technologies that come together to give us a new set of building blocks. So we have bitcoin, we have AI, we have quantum computing. All of that coming together could give us a new set of building blocks. So now we're on the sixth one. That's happened, all right, So let's take a look at what this pattern is that unfolds and how repeatable, how reliable this pattern is. So we have to understand that there's four different phases inside of this fifty year cycle. Now it's not exactly fifty years. It could be forty, it could be seventy, but it's around that range. And we know there's four phases into that. Now it sort of looks like this. There's two stages and there's four periods. And this is another term in technology, we'd call this diffusion. So long for this technology to reach adoption, so we have what's known as the big bang, and it goes into the eruption phase is where this new technology storms the scene. So to speak erupts. Then we have the frenzy phase. Then we have what's called the synergy phase, and then finally the maturity phase. Now it's important to note that it takes over where one cycle is ending the next one is beginning. So personal computers, telecom Internet was the last cycle, the last fifty year cycle. I'm going to show you more about that in a minute. And what happened is that Internet, all of that started failing, They started getting to centralized starts falling apart. So we have the birth of a news system that will take over that energy. But there's the eruption frenzy. Those are two phases in the first part, and then we have synergy and maturity the two phases in the last one. And it always works this way, and then we'll have the next big bang in the next cycle. We'll start from there. Now, if I overlay this with time periods, just so you can see what we're looking at. This is twenty ten to twenty twenty, that's the first phase. Twenty twenty to twenty thirty phase number two, twenty thirty to number forty, phase number three, and twenty forty to twenty fifty would be phase four. And that would complete this fifty year cycle within this and you might recognize this pattern right here if you're a technology person. I'm going to come back to that in a minute, but let me give you some examples of history. So remember the last one started nineteen seventy one, and this was the microprocessor, which brought personal computers, telecom and the internet. So so the microprocess was the first one. Nineteen seventy one, the birth of the microprocessor with Intel. Now what's important is if you map this from an investor standpoint, a price level standpoint, you map this technology cycle over with the price you see Intel here, and what you see for the first cycle, first part of the cycle, first twenty years, Intel price went up twenty three thousand percent in price. Twenty three thousand percent in price. Now that went up so cross, so much, so crazy that everyone looked at the Intaeil said that's got to be a bubble. It's so expensive. There's no way it can go from here. I need to go find the next microprocessor. I need to find a cheaper microprocessor. Because it went up twenty three thousand percent. I missed out. Oh always me, I never catch these, et cetera, et cetera. But what happened is that was phase one. A small business owner, are you buried in all types of work keeping you from the real thing that makes you money? Well that's where just Works comes in. They're the all in one platform that supports small business growth. 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It wasn't just Intel, it wasn't just microprocessors. As a matter of fact, like I said, the microprocessor brought us the boom of the computer and telecom and all of those we can see here Apple. So then the microprocessor brought us personal computers. Now, Apple went up one point five million percent one point five million percent in this first phase. And again everyone said, oh I missed it, it's too late. Why didn't I buy it? I always miss these things, and they sat on the sidelines. And then Apple went into phase two and went up another fifty thousand percent from there, an enormous amount. And so what happens is you can see these cycles are dependable, reliable. Microsoft I believe, went up about was it thirty forty thousand percent in phase one, phase two, went up over a million percent in phase two. Well, everyone sat on the sidelines, thinking that they missed it, that it's too expensive, not realizing that these things move in cycles. That makes sense, all right. So now that you understand that, you've seen the historical relation to that, let's overlay this and look at where we are in this new age of decentralization and bitcoin, et cetera. Okay, so the first thing you have to understand is that there's again four phases and we can overlay them with phase one twenty ten or twenty twenty being this eruption phase, and really it's the age of retail. So there's the very first part of the technology of diffusion where just the true believers, the early adopters, the tinkers, the nerds, if you will, they all start to come to play. It's a very small piece that's retail. But what happens is in phase two, as we move from the first phase into phase two, it's now called the frenzy phase. Now this is where we start getting wider adoption, where a lot more people coming. It's been proven out by the true believers, the early adopters, and now everybody else wants to jump in and get a piece of the pie. And this is really illustrated through the institutional phase. So right now you know the institutions, the wall streets, the ETFs, the black Rocks, and yes, even the governments, the sovereigns are starting to come into this institutional phase, which is why it's a frenzy, which is why it's starting to move so fast. Okay, Now if we take that and we overlay it with another chart, so we can understand this a little bit better. We have the same chart now, but now I've put something called an S curve onto ear. An S curve is a tool that we can use to measure adoption of technology, but you can use it to measure the things like viruses, even things like that, And it's a way to measure how fast adoption could get through a society. So basically, the way it works is the time it takes to go from zero to ten percent adoption is the same amount of time it takes to go from ten percent to ninety percent adoption. All right, that's the way this move. So now we overlay the four different phases of the fifty year cycle, and we overlay it with an S curve. And what we see is that while this part of the move, again with Intel and Apple and even with Bitcoin, everybody thinks they missed out. Oh my gosh, it moves so much, I wish I would have bought it before, So they sat on the sidelines. We can see why the second part of the move is the biggest part of the move, the frenzy. It's where the institutions, where the sovereigns where they come in. And I've put some green lines here show and illustrate this how big of this move. It's instead of moving linear, it starts to move parabolic. You can see that move right there, and that's why everyone thinks where this red line is they've missed out. But the biggest move is here. Remember Phase one is retail, you and I, and sure billions, hundreds of billions of dollars came into the space. Certainly we saw it go up. But now with the frenzy phase, with the institutions and the sovereigns, we're talking about trillions of dollars much bigger. The move in front of us is going to be much bigger than most people can even imagine. Okay, now where does that put us at the end of this phase two? Now we can go to phase three in phase four, and that's for another video. But where does that put us at the end of phase two which will be somewhere around twenty thirty? So is it too late for bitcoins? Should I short it? Should I sell it? Should I get out of it? Will it keep going up? Should I go hunt for some smaller coins? They're going to be more explosive. Is it going to boom or bust? Well, remember, we can measure the slope, so when we look at that S curve, it helps us understand where that's going. But what we want to do is we want to look at some historical numbers, and then we want to look at some growth drivers, and then we want to project that into the forward. This is what a venture capital would do if you're investing in new technologies like Uber and Airbnb. This is what you would do. Is how we do it. Okay, so we measured the slope. I showed you that it goes nonlinear but instead parabolic. So we understand that that means the growth, the rate of growth should change. Okay, So we want to look at the historical numbers and then we want to understand the drivers of these numbers. So let me show you a couple of things. First of all, I've talked about this before. So bitcoin is not competing as a new technology, it's not competing as a payment network. It's competing against the store of value assets value itself. So we look at assets that are store by assets like gold, collectibles, equities, real estate, bonds, money, et cetera. So if I was pitching on Uber or Airbnb, we would say, well, Airbnb is competing against hotels. So the hotel industry is this big, the total addressable market the TAM. If I could take x percentage, five percent, ten percent from the TAM of the hotel market, it'd be worth this much. Uber disrupting taxis, limos, vans, et cetera. So Bitcoin is taking value. It's disrupting all these store value assets. It'll take a little bit from gold, a little bit from collectibles, equities, et cetera. Now, this is from twenty twenty to where I project things to be a twenty thirty. Let's just start here. The money supply was ninety five trillion dollars in twenty twenty, and I projected to be somewhere around two hundred and five trillion, which is eight percent growth throughout the decade. Now eight percent is a little bit low. Now the reason why is not only do we have historical numbers, but we also look at the growth of this. So the government, the United States government, the US dollar, the reserve currency the world. The CBO is the Congressional Budget Office. They give us these numbers. They project out where we'll be through the next thirty years by twenty fifty four. Now, currently the money supply the FED balance sheet is growing by thirteen percent a year, so I've only put eight percent. I'm undershooting this a little bit to give us a little bit of conservative numbers. Bonds hundred trillion and twenty twenty, I project them to grow by five percent a year to four eighty eight. Now, if you understand this, I talk about this all the time. When the money supply goes up, real estate in equities are basically perfect proxies for those. So I put them going up by eight percent. Real estate goes to seven hundred trillion, Equities goes to two hundred and five trillion, Gold goes from eleven point five right now, I think we're about fourteen to fifteen, it goes to twenty trillion, and I project bitcoins it started at five hundred and thirty billion or point five trillion, twenty twenty, we'll get to twenty one trillion market cap, which is only a fifty percent growth rate. Now, when I say only fifty percent per year right now, the last four to five years it's been going up about sixty percent, So I project it will slow down a little bit going into the rest of the decade and end up at about twenty one trillion market cap. Now, to put this into some perspective for us, that means total store value assets go up to about one point six almost one point seven quadrillion by that time. At that point, bitcoin has only captured one point twenty five percent of the store of value assets. It's about on par with gold. Now, what does that look like a lot of people think that in order to get there, that you know, the dollar has to die, all these assets have to die. That's not the case. If we look at the store of value assets, we see real estate is the largest store valo as at seven hundred trillion, bonds four hundred eighty trillion, equities two hundred trillion, money two hundred and five trillion, And at this point, by twenty thirty, gold and bitcoin are basically about the same size twenty twenty one trillion. So Bitcoin has grown by taking a little bit of value from each one of these, but none of them are dead, nor is the dollar. A lot of people think, we alleah, when bitcoin's worth one million dollars, then what's the dollar worth? How much is the tank of gas. It doesn't mean the dollar dies. It means that it pulls value from each of those now only taking one percent one and a quarter percent, Now is that realistic? Remember, if I think like a venture capitalist, we would say what markets are we disrupting? Remember Uber and Airbnb are disrupting van taxi rides or hotels? Now we would project at what percentage do we think is realistic to capture over what period of time? And so we'd say, well, how much do I think bitcoin can pull from those others? Is one percent realistic? Well? What did Airbnb and Uber do? Well, we know that in the first ten years Uber and Airbnb launched. Within the first ten years, they were able to capture take ten percent of their market shares, ten percent in less than ten years. Now we're projecting Bitcoin by twenty thirty to only get one and a quarter percent, which I think seems pretty low. I think it's a conservative estimate. Now, where does it be in twenty go, in twenty forty and twenty fifty that's for another video. But then again, think about this, So back to the question, is it too late? Is bitcoin too expensive? Too expensive compared to what? Too expensive compared to where it was when it was ten cents one thousand dollars or ten thousand or or is it too expensive compared to where it is going to be in twenty thirty, twenty forty and twenty fifty. If I believe as I do, it'll be worth one million and twenty thirty. But I can buy it today for only one hundred thousand. Sounds very cheap, But let me know what you think. Put it down the scription down below, in the comments down below, mine of them you think if you want to release the other videos for twenty forty and twenty fifty, leave me a comment and let me know. And that's what I got, all right, to your success. I'm out,