In hour one of The Lombardi Line, Femi Abebefe and Michael Lombardi are joined by Mike Somich to break down today's MLB card and give his horse racing bets. They are also joined by Adam Burke to preview the upcoming NFL season.
This is the Lombardi Line with former NFL executive Michael Lombardi. Now here's your host. Tell me, I'm on Vson, the Sports Betting Network.
It's a great day to be alive, and it's a great day to be a better Welcome inside to the VS and studios here at the Circle Resort and Casino in downtown Las Vegas. This is the Lombardi Line Femife alongside Michael Lombardi out in the great state of New Jersey.
Michael, we got a lot going on. I mean, it's buzz't actually here in the sportsbook.
I was telling the guys before we got on the air, like Bette Bash is going on to a lot of betters.
Professional betters are in town.
They're signing up for the contest, they're watching some of the Olympic action that we have. I'm sure they're also betting the NFL preseason, getting that stuff in. It's a little bit of energy here on a Thursday morning out west.
Well, I mean, look, we got football Thursday. We're gonna have football Thursday for a long time, which is awesome, right, I mean, we are in a routine week. I mean, this is a great day, even even If anybody wants to complain about the already a play, we can't. I mean, we got football back. We're on schedule. You know, we're moving through August and pretty soon we'll have Labor Day and we'll be ready to go. I'm jack to watch the games today. I really am me. Im more than the outcome and who's gonna win in a betting because it's hard to understand why people are betting what they're betting. But more than anything is this is really gonna help us put together our power rankings for the teams as we get ready for the season, which where the betting really matters the.
Most, oh one hundred percent.
Like what we see now, you don't want to overreact, but you also don't want to underreact because what you see now can actually give you some glimpse of what we're gonna actually see when the games count for real. Like we always talk about the Carolina Panthers last year, we were fans of them throughout the offseason, believers in Bryce Young. I'm still holding some Bryce Young stock. There could be something there. But we believed in the Panthers, and then we watched them in the preseason, and we watched that offensive line look absolutely atrocious, and then we ultimately saw the Panthers have the worst record in the regular season a season to go. So there are some things that you can pick up from the preseason. I know you wrote about that on vson dot com, talk about how to evaluate the preseason accurately and from a more I guess level headed mindset than looking at the scoreboard.
Yeah. I mean, like, let's take the Cincinnati Bengals for example, right, we know they've started the last two years oh and two in the first two weeks. They're oh and four with Zach Taylor in the first two weekends the last two years with Joe Burrow playing quarterback. Understand he was hurt last year. However, that being said, his team always tries to peak later. Well in the North, this year peaking later may not work, and so there's talk that they're having a tougher camp, there's talk that they're doing more. We're gonna find out when we watch the preseason games. It's not that it's not what they do win the game or what It's really about how the team looks, and that goes down to the free agents. It's if they're practicing at a high level or are competing. You know, camp's been hard. If they're struggling, you know, camp hasn't one hundred percent.
Yeah, it's like who's having those tough camps. Who's going to be out there getting themselves ready for the first part of the Especially, you gotta factor this up in for the Week one handicapping. It's one of the reasons why every single year in Week one we get those what the heck results where it's this bad team beats a team that ends up being really good, because sometimes maybe that team that was good, they're more focused on peaking a little bit later, which is November December, and maybe that bad team had actually a tough training camp and was ready to go from snap number one. But we have a fun show on deck for you guys over these next couple of hours. Starting thirty minutes from now, every Buddy Mike Samich, host of the Handle here at the Network, will join us. Samach always has plays in Major League Baseball. I'm sure he's betting the preseason. We'll get to all of that with Mike Sammich coming up in thirty minutes, and then in forty five minutes from now, Adam Burke our visen Managing editor, Adam has a few NFL preseason plays. Adam was also instrumental in writing our NFL Got Betting Guide and also our College Football Betting Guide as well. So we'll talk to Adam about the preseason and also college football since college FOBA were talking about the NFL being around the corner, college football is like in a couple of weeks with Week zero, so we'll get Adam's thoughts on what we should expect this year in college football. Then our number two two thirty Eastern, eleven thirty Pacific. It's the segment that everybody knows and loves. Palm's pressing three is Mike Palm, the VP of operations here at the Circa Resort of Casino, will join the program as he always does to help us wrap up the show on a Thursday. We'll get Palm's thoughts. I mean, they've been doing a great job hosting bet Bash here. Sign Up Weekend is coming up in a couple of weeks here for people to sign up for the Circum Millions, the Circus Survivor, So Mike Palm will have a lot to get through with us in the next couple of segments as we talked to him two thirty Eastern eleven thirty Pacific with Mike, let's start with those preseason games that we have tonight, two of them, a little bit of an appetizer before the weekend before we get the full slate coming up on Saturday. But the first game that we have is the Panthers and the Patriots, which I think is just an interesting betting market. I know, you don't bet the preseason. A lot of people don't bet the preseason, but some of the shart betters actually say these lines are softer than what we see in the regular season, and we've seen some of that money come in on the New England Patriots all throughout the week. They're out to a six and a half point favorite. The total is thirty five to play all their guys, Carolina not so much. Bryce Young not going to play in this game, as reported by head coach Dave Canalis.
Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure why Bryce Young wouldn't play. I mean, when you look at the quarterbacks who are scheduled to play this weekend, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels, Drake May you know I mean, why wouldn't Bryce. I mean, there needs to be some kind of rhythms, some kind of you know, continuity within the team. I'm surprised he's not. Obviously Dave Canalis is making that decision. But how are the Patriots seven points better than anybody? I mean, really, how are they? I mean, like, okay, the Patriots are tackle poor. Are they going to play Michael Lewanu at right tackle? No, they moved him into guard because he's too heavy. Who's the right tackle? I don't know. They're going to try to find out. They're going to look their way through it, see what they do. The offensive line last year was a mess for the Patriots. I think that's something. And more than anything is what are they going to look like on defense? Are they going to play some of their defensive players? And how the coaches? This is a big game for New England. This is the first game without the goat on the sideline, right, yep. This is the first time that Patriots stadium since I was at the first game we opened up the season when they hoisted their flag after winning a Super Bowl in two thousand and four, when they opened up the stadium, and so I was there for that one we lost in that game when with the Raiders we had Randy Moss playing for us. But the reality of it is is is this will be the first time that stadium has had someone other than coach Belichick on the sideline. I think it's going to be fascinating to see how they run the game, how the how Gerard Mayo runs the team, what it looks like, the mechanics of everything. Understanding it's still the first game.
Yeah, And I think that's why maybe people are betting New England the quarterback depth chart, which we'll get into here momentarily, but I think from an incentive standpoint and just from like a motivation standpoint, you would say that New England is probably more motivated, even though Canal says this is gonna be his first game as a head coach as he came over from Tampa Bay. But drawn Mayo has the mammoth size shoes to fill and I think he's gonna want to get off on the right's foot and go ahead and maybe win a game and at least give a little bit of optimism about this team. Because I'm sure the Craft family hears the noise. Mayo maybe not as much. I'm sure everybody around that team. Here's the noise of Wow, the Patriots are going to be really, really bad this year. I think they're gonna want to have the fans at least give them something to cheer about. So I think from an incentive standpoint, from a motivation standpoint, I think New England is going to be the team that's just a little bit more motivated to win. But when you look at the quarterback depth chart for this one, once again no Bryce Young, which I agree with you, it seems a little asinine to not play them since it's a new system under Dave Canalis, but I guess they want to go ahead and protect Bryce Young. For New England, we'll have Jacoby Brissett starting Drake May their third overall pick, first round selection. He's going to be the QB two. Joe Milton is QB three on the depth chart. We'll get to see the rookie Joe Milton out of Tennessee, and then also Bailey Zappi, who's been there for a couple of years, has started a number of regular season games. So I get from a QB depth chart standpoint, the betty market likes New England much more than they like Caroline which their quarterback depth chart, it's not gonna be Bryce Young. I doubt Andy Dalton plays since he's dealing with an injury. Is Jack Plumber, and then Jake Luton, who has started a couple of games with the Jacksonville Jaguars. So from a QB dep standpoint, I think you have the favor New England, which that's why this thing is getting bet out heavily.
Yeah, no question. I think that's the fact. I think the Jake Luton factor, the Jake Plumber factor. I think all those things Jack Plumber, not Jake, Jake was his debt. All those things are playing into this number. We don't know how good the Patriots could be on defense, right, I think that remains to be seen. We won't see Judeahn, we won't see their starters, but their backups. They have depth here. I mean, look, if they play Sean Wade, the corner, he played in regular season games, Mapu, the kid they drafted in the third round, played safety in regular season. I mean they've got depth in this defensive front. You know, I'm sure they probably won't play wise, but their other guys will. So they're the more complete team. The question mark is offensively right, and if they're going to play their quarterbacks, they got to get this offensive line handled. They got to see if Wallace could be the right tackle. They've got to see who the left tackle is. Is it Okuerfer Calvin Anderson? Is he going to play right tackle or is he going to go over the left, And they got to figure out what's going on inside. David Andrews has been hurt, Cole Straang isn't healthy, so they're going to probably figure out what that is. And that's what makes preseason what I wrote about so good because you got to watch these offensive lines. Right, what was the weakness of Carolina? Okay, their offensive line last year? Yep, Now we get a chance to watch their offensive line. Understanding it's not the starters. We won't see Robert Hunt, we probably won't see Taylor Moten, we won't see those guys. However, that being said, we want to see who's behind them and how they're practicing and how they're executing because even if they're not good enough, how they operate is important for you to handicap because that means the good players will play well.
Yeah, I want to see ikey A Kwanu at some point this preseason, their first run pick from a couple of years ago. He's had some rough moments in his career so far. Can he take a step forward in year three because they really need him to kind of be a cornerstone on that offensive line. The other game that we have in the Meadowlands between the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants, not as much movement, a little bit quieter. From a betting standpoint line opened three and a half. It's still three and a half in favor of Big Blue. The total, though, has ticked down a point from thirty six and a half to thirty five.
And a half.
No Daniel Jones tonight for the Giants. No Jared go for the Detroit Lions. So for the Lions, maybe we'll get to see Hendon Hooker, who red shirted last year dealing with the ACL injury that he suffered in college. And Tennessee we'll get to see Nate Sudfield as well for Detroit, and then for the New York Giants, Drew Locke and then oh, our buddy Tommy DeVito, Michael, He's gonna go ahead and make his return on the field out there in the meadowlands.
I think the Hayden Hooker starts interesting because if he looks good, right, if he looks good, I know people really like Hooker coming out in the draft. So this is how NFL trades are made. If Hooker comes out there and plays well and shows he's healthy coming off the injury and you see some of the things that he did in college. Again understanding, don't over evaluate quarterbacks of the preseason, but this is going to be huge for Detroit. They just sign their quarterback to a long term deal. There's gonna be teams that will be watching Hooker, maybe not for a trade tomorrow, but for a trade and in the offseason because they're gonna want to scout him. He's a guy on a potential target list to understand what kind of player is he because a lot of people had good grades on him coming out.
One hundred percent.
Maybe what if a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, who we hear all their quarterback compe this is not going well with Minshew and O'Connell. If he Hooker looks good. We've seen teams make these trades of this. I mean, Josh Dobbs was traded from Cleveland last year, I mean, and they ended up going ahead and shipping him out. So I think it could be very interesting. Maybe there could be a shake up with these quarterback carousels that are still moving along here in the preseason. All Right, we're just getting warmed up here on the Lombardi Line. On the other side, a little GM translator next here on vcind Sports Betting Network.
Welcome back.
This is the Lombardi line here on a third Fai beefet Michael Lombardi in the great state of New Jersey, just getting warmed up here on this program. Fifteen minutes from now, our buddy Mike Samitch will join us, host of The Handle, which you can check out weekends here on Viison from noon to three Eastern time, nine to twelve Pacific time. But Michael, we wanted to play a little GM translator because my favorite part of training camp is we get to hear from the coaches, the quarterbacks, all the players. They're talking after what's happened over the course of the off season. And at Buffalo Bills training camp, quarterback Josh Allen was asked if he has missed Stefan Diggs, who was traded to the Houston Texans.
Here what Josh Allen had to.
Say, Steph's a great player and what he brought to this team was special. So miss is I don't know if i'd say miss You know, he was a guy that was reliable, you can you can look to He's gonna have the juice each and every day. I'm sure he's bringing over there in Houston. So definitely, yeah, you can't say that you don't miss that. But I am very happy with what we got going on here and how hard the guys have been working.
And yeah, Michael, you've been the general manager, You've worked many years and decades in the National Football League. How would you translate with Josh Allen had to say about missing Stefan Diggs.
It's time to move on, you know. Stefan did a good job for what we were doing. Now we're changing. Look, I think what people have missed about Buffalo is they are now a twelve team. They are no longer an eleven personnel. But what makes them unique because of Kincaid's skill set is they can go from twelve to eleven without substituting, and they're going to be fine without Digs they're going to move on without Diggs. The media has made way too much about Digs. Moved the market for Houston from eight and a half to nine and a half, salking Toban Gloom for Buffalo. I mean, imagine, asking, is Buffalo's windows expiring? As long as you got Josh Allen, you got a window right now. I'm not saying you got a Bay front window or an ocean front window, but you got a window right like you got a window with Josh Allen. Now, their questions on the defensive front are more serious than questions at wide receiver. I don't get the sense. I think the confidence that Josh Allen expressed his respect, his appreciation, and his friendship towards the player. We're all obvious, but as a football player, I think he knows the team can move on.
Yeah.
Win totals now nine and a half, which it just looks funny on the surface, a team that's quarterbacked by Josh Allen, who I think by any.
Schedule those storm I mean femi, I think it's all it's all predicated off the schedule. People look at that schedule and say, oh, how are they going to do this?
Yeah, which I mean is that even right though? Should you be bag because I know that you have to you have to factor the schedule in, but I feel like we factor it in way too much because there's still a quarterback there that wins double digit games every single season.
But you know, yeah, you're right, and last year, every game that they lost was less than six points. I mean they lost a lot of close games when they lost, right, And so I agree with you. But you know, look, this whole thing about the schedule, to me, I think is completely over. I think it has value, yep. I think it has value when you play a tough team and then come back and play another tough team. I think there's certain points of the season where I know, when we would play Pittsburgh the next week, I was always worried about who we played because Pittsburgh beats the crap out of you. But there's certain teams like that. I think that's more the schedule than it is, Oh, that were a playoff team last year and you got to play them again next year.
Not so much, no, because we go into every season not knowing who's actually gonna be good and who's gonna be bad. Outside of maybe the top four teams and the bottom four teams everyone else in between. It down is up, up is down every single year in the NFL. So I think it's trying to play the schedule game. You'll get into a little bit of trouble doing that stuff and saying, oh, the sales was so difficult. We don't know if any of those teams are actually going to be really good. Let's keep it moving though. With another quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was asked about the report that came out from ESPN. They did an expose on the Eagles and their twenty twenty three season about how there was a little bit of a friction between Jalen Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni.
Here's what Hurts had to say when he addressed the media. I'm curious to see where where is this coming from? Randomly this this wink stuff.
There was a report from ESPN this morning that said in the contact.
Before the Buck scheme some so long ago.
I didn't write it. I first heard it out today. Yeah, why why is that relevant?
How do you translate what Jalen Hurts and the say said, Hey, why is this relevant? Now that it's coming out when it was about last year.
Yeah, I mean, look, look, the essence of the article is there was cut problems on the Eagles and it extended beyond Hurts. Last year. The conditioning of their team was not good. I mean the fourth quarter, they gave up way too many points. Their defensive front got exhausted. Two years ago, they got sixty of their seventy sacks from the defensive line. Last year they were went down to six point five percent of the time they were able to sack the quarterback when they were they around eleven year before the percentage. So, look, there was a lot of things going wrong in Philadelphia, one of them being they couldn't move the football. I mean, look two years ago, AJ Brown averaged seventeen yards of catch. Last year, he's down to thirteen. Two years ago. You know, they struggled. Smith averaged thirteen and a half yards. He's down under twelve. He was down under thirteen last year. So they've got to figure it out. But the one thing that's more clear that is the bigger issue in Philadelphia more than anything, is their RPO game was bad last year. And this is a trend of the league. Other than TUA. The RPO game is slowly going away, and I think they've got to figure out what Hurts can do outside of the RPO game and the play action game that can lead them to victories. Because remember the year they were so good, they played from in front in every single game.
Yeah, And for our betting audience, people that maybe are not in the weeds with the football as much as we are, like, can you explain to them why Hurts benefits from RPO game and if it's taken away, how that might impact this Eagles offense.
Well, I think here's what happens. One of the things you want to do is make the game easy for the quarterback. So what is the essence of anything that's complex. Make it simple. So the RPO game makes it the game very simple. Fake I either hand the ball off to you or I'm going to throw it to a slant or somebody crossing my face either or play action pass. I fake a handoff to the running back. It draws in the linebacker, It separates the defense. So now there's clear passing lanes to throw and I can see who's open. It's a little bit like playing football in your backyard. Oh he's open, I'm going to throw him the ball when it's not that way. When it's cloudy, who's covering who where's the guy coming from? Is he coming from the other side of the field, That becomes an issue. The game starts to move way too fast, and so for me, the RPO game is dying because people are dropping the spots and they know where the ball's going to go. The play action pass game will never die. Why Houston could not run the football last year under any circumstances. They were thirty first to the National Football League at yards per percentage by their run game horrendous, But yet they have one of the best passing games in football off of play action. Why because no matter how bad you run the ball to, the defense still reacts to the run one hundred percent.
For more great analysis like that, like if you want to get those started gems and you're into the betting weeds but not into the football weeds, but you want to know how it marries between the two, make sure you check out Michael's articles all throughout the season vsin dot com and become a vsent Pro subscriber. We're giving away great deals for the next three years. There's three hundred and fifty dollars. You get a seventy five percent off monthly price, so make sure you take advantage of that, as well as getting our college football and our pro football betting guides. Let's continue along with our GM translator here, Michael, as we go to San Francisco, where the story of the week in the National Football League is Brandon Ayyuk. When will he be traded? Why can't the Niners come to an agreement with Ayuk? Can they come to an agreement with another team? Well, Kyle Shanahan was asked about the possibility of not having Ayyuk on the roster this season.
Here's what he had to say.
I mean, Brand's a great player, so it's real hard to be better when you lose a great player. So we got to look into anything. We got to understand the situation we're in, what that looks like, and that does take time. So hopefully it all work out best for him and best for us in the long run. I mean, you're always disappointed when you can't keep ahold of all your players or it's not going exactly right. I mean, I don't like losing anybody, so that's why I'm hoping it does work out here?
How would you translate what Kyle had to say?
Well, I mean, I think Kyle wanted to keep him, but I think, like I've been saying here and on the podcast with you, is at some point you can't keep a player who's unreasonable. You know, he thinks he deserves to make tip top five sounds Larry, And then when he went for the top five salary by the Patriots, he didn't want that because he didn't want to play on a bad team. You can't have it both ways. And so Kyle just did exactly what I've been saying he should have done a week ago. He did it. He just said, I've had enough of this crap. Okay signing You're not better than DJ Moore. You're not better really than I trade you for DK Metcalf. There's a lot of guys I trade you for, and they've got contracts less than what we're offering you. So if you won't sign here, I've got to move on. Life goes on without you, like nobody's stopping. And this whole notion that well you should pay him what he wants, No, because every dollar you give over what you've perceived as value to be is a dollar you're taking away from your team. Why is it a competitive advantage for some team like the Bears to have DJ Moore at twenty seven and a half million and you've got to pay Ayuke thirty three when DJ Moore is better than your guy.
Well, I think Dj Moore, maybe you should have gone to social media to clamor for a contracts.
This is what's.
Happening here because Brandon Ayuke, I don't know who's advising him. I know his agent, Ryan Williams. He's been in the news, he's been hanging out a different training camp. I'm sure he's been hard at work trying to get his client the best deal possible, as an agent should. But eventually you got to understand what the market is, and I guess there hasn't been a team that's met Brandon Nyuk's demands. Thus the stalemate that we have in San Francisco with Ayuk and potentially the Niners and the Steelers or maybe even a mystery team might join the conversation as well. Before the start of the regular season, the Niners win total sitting at eleven and a half. I think without Ayyuk, maybe if they trade him for some pieces down the line probably helps the team in twenty five, twenty six, but for twenty twenty four, I think that's definitely gonna hurt this team that has Super Bowl aspirations.
This upcoming question, all right, on the other side, Mike.
Samach up the handle, joins us next to give out some of his best bets on the day. This is the Lombardi line. Welcome back, This is the Lombardi line, Michael, Lombardi out in the great City of New Jersey. Femi and Bevern fet hanging out here in downtown Las Vegas and the Circle Resort in Casino. Michael, you'd be happy to know that our buddy Thomas Gable, he's in town for Bette Bash. And although he came by in the studio and said hello to us, so we wanted to pass along a hello to you.
So I just want to make sure we've got that in there.
I can't believe he left town, that Nick Foles retired. I mean, this is a national holiday back here in Philadelphia. People were sent home early from work. I mean, Nick Foles retired. It's just I mean, let's face it. I mean, you got a statue, name a statue It's unbelievable. It's one of those games that will go down as the most remarkable game of all time when the Patriots never punted, gained six hundred yards and still lost.
What a wild super Bowl that was.
Every single prop went over all that anytime TD scores, it was ridiculous that super Bowl. But joining us now on the Progressive Guest Line to give out some best bets here on the Lombardi Line, it's our buddy Mike Samuch of the Handle.
Check them out on.
The weekends noon to three Eastern time, nine to noon at Pacific time. Mike, thanks for waking up with us hanging out on the Lombardy Line. Before we get into it, we wanted to talk about some preseason betting because I know a lot of betters maybe they just bet the regular season, they don't really get into the weeds in the preseason. What advice and what tips would you give out to people that are going to dabble into some NFL preseason for the first time.
I love betting the preseason. It's one of my favorite things to do. It feels like you get information before at the same time as a lot of sportsbooks and other betters as long as you're scouring Twitter looking for updates, watching press conferences to hear what these coaches are going to be doing, and because of that, it feels like you're able to get an edge. When I'm betting preseason, I am all about the quarterbacks. Who am I going to get for significant snaps, significant minutes? And do I have a situation where I'm going to get quarterbacks that I want facing third and four string defenses, specifically in the second half, because I think that gives them an opportunity to be able to push forward. I'm also looking for quarterback battles generally not in the top spot, not for that QB one, but when you can find battles for QB two, QB three, you're going to get a more realistic playscript from the offensive coordinator and you're going to get these guys at one hundred percent effort in a lot of these spots as well. So for me, it's all about finding the quarterback battles that you can bet on and understanding who's going to be taking those snaps behind center.
Mike. Okay, So with that in mind, how do you explain that the Patriots are a touch down favored against the Panthers with really no quarter I mean, we say they have no quarterbacks. Would you lay that? Would you do that? I don't understand. I'm with you on the quarterback handicap, but it does involve the offensive line too.
Hey, the offensive line definitely comes into play, Michael. But again, I'm all about focusing on those quarterbacks and where I think I can find an edge. And for me, I am going to lay the six and a half with the Patriots here. I think you've got a significant quarterback edge, which it's kind of wild to say for the Patriots, but Dave Canalis already came out said he's not going to play Bryce Young in this game. That generally would mean we get a lot of Andy Dalton. Well, he's injured, so no Andy Dalton either, which means it's going to be Jack Plumber and Jake Luton for Carolina today. Jack Plumber rookie out of Louisville. I'm not very high in him, not really looking to play a rookie free agent in his first preseason game. And Jake Luton hasn't played an NFL game since twenty twenty. So for me, the Panthers quarterbacks not very good. You're also not going to get feeling. You're not going to get Johnson from the outside, so you don't have the weapons in either. And when you look at the Pats, Jacoby Brissett expected to play one to two series. Then you get Bailey Zappi, you get Drake May and Joe Milton. At least May and Milton can both run. So I like the the starting quarterbacks you're gonna see with Brissette and Zappie in the first half, and I think May and Milton are an advantage in the second half. So I'm gonna lay it here with the Patriots minus six and a half tonight, Yeah.
At number six and a half, the total sitting at thirty five. Patriots hosting the Carolina Panthers, were hanging out with Mike Samech heir on the Progressive guest Line, Mike host of the Handle, which you can check out weekends here at the network noon to three Eastern time. Let's stay with the preseason theme here. Friday night in South Beach, you got the Dolphins hosting the Atlanta Falcons. What do you make of those quarterback depth charts and how do you plan to attack this game?
This is another interesting one.
We know we're not gonna see Kirk Cousins from the Falcons, but we're going to get Michael Pennox Junior, and then after that Taylor Heineke and then Nathan Rourke. If you remember, Nathan Rourke was a a and just anomaly in the preseason last year. He came out of Ohio, played very good football in the preseason. He can move the football with his legs, so I like that specifically later in the game. And then on the Dolphins side, we're not gonna get Tua or we're gonna see a lot of both White and Thompson who we saw in the regular season the last couple of years. So Matt White and Skyler Thompson, they're both good quarterbacks to move the football. Again, I'm gonna go ahead. I'm gonna take the over thirty seven and a half here. I think both of these offenses have success. And because of the new kickoff rule as well, I'm more interested in playing overs in these preseason games because you're going to see significantly better field position. It takes away the holding on the kickoff. That's an advantage for the offenses we saw in the Hall of Fame game, a lot more shots taken toward the end of the first half because of where you're set up, and a lot better field position consistently throughout the game. So I'm adjusting my totals in the preseason up one to two points from what we saw last year because of this new kickoff rule.
I think this is a good chance to take the over here.
Mike, when you're going through all these preseason games, like the Giants tonight, they're not going to play obviously, They're going to play Drew Locke and the Lions are going to play Hayden Hooker. Like, is there anything the Giants is going to do for you to move their power rankings? Or have you had all your power rankings pretty much set in the stone before the season starts.
I will adjust my power ranking somewhat during the preseason. A lot of it is based on injury and then what I see from a scheme perspective. You're not gonna get a ton of looks at these first offenses. Understand what it's going to look like. But I will focus on the offensive line, the defensive line, see if there's anyone who's able to create pressure that I wasn't expecting specifically backups who I think may be able to be a rotational player, a third down pass rusher, and then the offensive line. I think's important to watch now because we're going to have a lot of injuries during the season to those alignment. Being able to watch some of them in preseason and how they're able to handle themselves there can get you a better idea of what you're going to do down the road from a powerrankings perspective. But without a major injury, I'm not too worried about the preseason and adjusting my power rankings based off the play.
On the field.
Yeah, if you want more great analysis like that and more picks, make sure you go to vson dot com slash subscribe and become a vsent Pro subscriber. I think that's a great analysis, honestly, and also take advantage of the special seventy five percent off monthly price for the next three years if you want to go ahead and go that route and lock in something for the long term. Mike Let's transition from preseason NFL to Major League Baseball. Hunter Green is on the mound for the Reds. We got Tyler on the mound for the Mine.
Of Marlins. Green's been awesome, but the market's kind of back in Miami here. How do you see this one?
Yeah, I'm surprised we're seeing a move toward the Marlins in this spot. You got Kyle Tyler on the mound for the Marlins. He's not been very good if you look at his ERA over five, but if they expected ERA, it's close to six and a half. On the other side, Hunter Green's been absolutely phenomenal for this Reds team. They've been very inconsistent with the Bats, and I think that's why we're not seeing a lot of Reds money pour in, especially as a bigger favorite. Sitting at minus one eighty right now, I don't want to lay the minus one eighty with the Reds, but I do think the Reds have a significant advantage on the Mounta and I like their lineup better even though it has been inconsistent.
I'm gonna go with a double result here.
Femi, give me the Reds minus one twenty to win the first half and win the game. So the Reds would have to be leading after five and win the baseball game for me to cash my bet. But I'm reducing the juice by almost sixty cents here, and if the Reds are a head after the after the five inning mark, I'd be very surprised if they lose this game. That generally means Hunter Green is pitching very well, and he's one of those guys that's been an absolute stopper for the Reds this season. So I'll take a double result with the Reds minus one twenty to win the first half and win the game.
Mike, have you played much of anything in this Olympic? Have you bet anything in the Olympics or you've kind of left that alone.
I don't bet a ton of Olympics. I enjoy watching it too much, Michael to want to be able to bet on it. I do have Anthony Edwards plus five point fifty to be USA's leading scorer right now. We're actually looking pretty good. He has been phenomenal in garbage time for me. Specifically, the last game goes from I think what it was seven points all the way up to fifteen in the final three minutes of that game. So love Anthony edwards aggressiveness late in these games. I do like him as leading scorer in these games if you can find a good number on him. But I'd want at least five to one.
There we go a man. We'll be rooting for Man.
The team USA has taken on Serbia a little bit later on this afternoon, so we'll see if they can punch their ticket to the gold medal game, which will be a Saturday, I believe against France, the host nation, So that'll be a fun game over in the Olympics. Obviously, Samich knows the NFL, He's dabbled a little bit with the Olympics. Obviously knows baseball, but horses. This guy knows the ponies better than anybody that I know. What do you like today, Mike and Saratoga Race number two? Where are we going with the ponies.
Let's have a little instant gratification here, boys. We got this race going off in about two minutes. So if you want to bet this race, you got to get right to it here. Race two Saratoga, the number three horse legitimized. He's five to one right now on the board. Timothy Ham owns and trains this horse. He brought it up to Saratoga. Generally, when a trainer brings a horse up from Florida to Saratoga, especially a lower level trainer and they're running him at the SPA. They think he's going to absolutely fire. This horse has a big time pace advantage here. Legitimize went to the lead down at Tampa in his first career start. He ended up running second, a close second, fought hard. I love seeing that from a pace horse. You add Luis Sayaz the jockey who is a speed jockey. He wants to get out in front. I think you got a huge pace edge here for the three legitimized right now five to one on the board. Your favorite's going to be the sick. It makes a ton of sense. But you got to try and beat the favorite sometime if he wants to make some money. So the three horse Legitimize race too Saratoga.
Ooh, look at that. Tell you who else is legitimized. It's Mike Samage. Check them out on the handle. Noon to three Eastern time, nine to new Pacific time. Mike, Thanks as always, buddy, and goodluck with the bets.
You got it.
Have a good one, guys, and Mike's Mike Mike Sammas joining us on behalf of the progressive guest line. So it got a couple of minutes. Get those bets in at Saratoga. Michael, we have the USA Serbia game. You get your boy in bead versus Yokic. That'll be another chapter in that rivalry. There, USA laying fourteen and a half total one eighty eight and a half as they look to punch their ticket to the gold medal.
That'll be fun one. I think it's tips off right as we get off the air.
Here we go. Yeah, we'll see if our guy played twelve minutes yea, and he's got a bad ankle, so we'll see how that works.
Out there, you go.
We know he doesn't like to play Yokic away from Philadelphia, so uh, maybe there could be something going on there with it.
But we'll be rooting for Anthony Edwards to score.
For Mike Samas to get home with that leading score ticket with team USA.
All right.
On the other side, we'll continue the conversation with NFL preseason, but also focus on the college football gridiron. Vson's managing editor Adam Burke joins the show next here on the Lombardi Line.
Welcome back.
This is the Lombardi Line on a Thursday morning or afternoon, depending on what side of the coast you might live on, Michael Lombardi. He's out in the great City of New Jersey. Femia bebbe fet hanging out here in downtown Las Vegas at the Circle Resorting Casino and joining us in studio Vson Managing Editor, the one and Only Adam Burke, Adam Hope all as well, thanks for hanging out with us this morning. Want to get to your preseason best bets. But first we asked Mike Salamich the question. We want to ask you the question as well. How much of your power ratings are you adjusting based on what you're going to see over these next three weeks?
Oh?
Good question. Yeah. So, first of all, good be with you guys. Good to chat with you. It's been a lot of time since I've seen you, actually, so this is nice. Yeah.
I mean as far as the job, you know, I don't really power rate the NFL. I do power ratings for college football. For the NFL, I mean, the market is pretty tight. I don't think I'll find too many advantages putting together my own numbers. But yeah, there are a lot of things that you're looking for, right I mean, injuries are inevitable during the NFL season, and specifically, you know, injuries in the trenches. Those are things I'm looking for, right, I mean, wide receivers, they're going to catch the ball when it's thrown to them more often than not.
Running backs.
There are a lot of times plug and play in the NFL, but you do get those big drop offs with the offensive linemen. And so I want to see how the second third team offensive line guys do, the guys that are kind of on the bubble for roster spots, the guys that'll be deciding your preseason bets here in the second half, you know, especially because cluster injuries happen at that position, and so maybe losing one guy you can deal with, but losing two or three guys at the same time that makes it more difficult. So I'm looking a lot at offensive line play in the preseason for sure.
Yeah, And I think to me, you can learn a lot about a team through the offensive line play in the preseason as you go through it. And like, we're gonna see Michael Pennix tonight, and I know this is one of the games you wanted to talk about. You like, the Dolphins and the Falcons over the thirty eight and a half, which is a high number for the preseason.
Tell us why, Yeah, So there's a few things in play here.
I mean, these two teams had some joint practices this week, especially early on on Tuesday, Monday and Tuesday, where the coaches were kind of like, hey, the defenses aren't playing very well. We're giving up a lot of big plays here in the seven on seven, eleven on eleven. So I think, you know, these are two teams that obviously have some pretty decent quarterback depth. You know, you've got Mike White for the Dolphins, a guy that you know, we know can sling it around the yard. Pennix has reportedly looked very very good here in the preseason with the Falcons. Also, Taylor Heineke is a guy that can sling it and Nathan Rourke is a dual threat type of guy. And that's something else that I look for here in the preseason. Because I know you guys talked about this in the previous segment. The offensive line play can be iffy in the second half. Guys will blow in misassignments. But if you have a mobile quarterback who can improvise, can make something happen with his legs, you know, instinct just kind of take, you know, kicks in and takes over. So those are guys that are still capable of moving the chains in the second half with Skyler Thompson who's fairly mobile and has some experience in the preseason, and then Rourke who was a true duel threat guy in college at Ohio. So that's one where I think both of these offenses will be able to have some success, both with the main guys out there, but then also with the backups on the field.
We're hanging out with Adam Burke Veisen, Managing editor here on the Lombardi Line family Bedfe, Michael Lombardi, Michael out in the gret stity of New Jersey, family Benfet hanging out here in downtown Las Vegas at the Circuit Resort and Casino. You also like some of the weekend action as well, this Browns at Brown's hosting. I should say the Green Bay Packers is there's still meat left on the bone here for Cleveland. They're laying three and a half. I know you like them a little bit earlier at a smaller number total thirty nine and a half.
Would you still back Cleveland at the current prices?
Yeah, you know you worry less about key numbers like three, like seven in the preseason, just because you know, sometimes you'll have special teams mishaps, or you maybe teams will want to go for two just to practice something stuff like that. So I think you worry a little bit less about those key numbers here in the preseason. And honestly, I mean this is a pretty simple play for me. You've got Jamis Winston, dtr and Tyler Huntley, who are in the quarterback room there for the Browns going up against backups for the Packers. And you've got Sean Clifford, he's one of their backups. Michael Pratt, who is a dual threat type of guy coming out of Tulane. He could be a guy that maybe makes a little bit of noise in the second half of this game. But I think Cleveland's depth is also much stronger. I've kind of said this, you know, in various appearances where I think one, you know, let's say two through fifty three, the Browns might have the best roster in the NFL. The number one guy, to Shan Watson, is a guy that I don't trust at all, And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Jameis Winston is starting games early in the season for this team because I don't think Watson's going to have that long of a leash. You don't want to have a double sunken cost right where I think the money, the trade value, you know, they kind of chalk those up as losses already. You don't want to turn it into losses on the field. So I think Winston's going to get a lot of looks here in the preseason to get some rapport with this second team offense. They've got great depth at the skill positions, particularly wide receiver, which is why maybe they're kind of, you know, stepping back a little bit on a potential Brandon Ayuk deal. But I just think the Browns are really, really deep. I don't think the Packers are as deep. I think the starting unit for Green Bay is really good. The depth is a little bit questionable for me. So even at three and a half, I think the Browns are still worth it here.
Yeah, I know Elliott's excited about as Indianapolis Colts are producer, but talk about the game today, you know, I think when the Colts played Denver, understand Sean Payton comes from the Bill Parcells school of how to build a team, and that involves play your offensive line the preseason and play your team. So you still like the Colts, who I'm not sure what Shane Steichen's philosophy will be considering coming from Philly. They really don't play anyone.
Yes, I mean this is one now where the Broncos are a road favorite. Here in this game, they're a one point favorite. This one was actually Colts minus one and a half when I wrote up the article over at Visin dot com. But look, I mean the way that's on Peyton was so you know, kind of lase fair about the depth chart early in the week and just like, yeah, I spent like two minutes on it. Makes it seem to me like he's not super focused on the preseason, at least not for a wins and losses standpoint. He just wants to evaluate his roster. However he's going to do that. He just wants to evaluate his roster. And I think for Shane Steichen, coming off of a year where the Colts kind of underachieved in a variety of different ways, I think he'd like to set the tone early here. So I do like Indianapolis this game is obviously, you know, on Sunday, so several days away. Wasn't exactly sure who was going to play for both of these teams when I did throw this one out there. But I just think philosophically, these two teams, these two organizations are in different spots here, at least as far as Week one of the preseason goes.
Yeah, no, Ed.
Adam does a great job obviously handicapped the NFL, but as well college football. You were instrumental in writing our Vson College while Betting Guy, which is already out now. We encourage everyone to go ahead and do that, but the only way you can get your access to it is to become a Vsonpro subscriber. That's Vson dot Com slash subscriber. There's a great deal out there, seventy five percent off of the monthly price for the next three years Visa dot Com Slash special if you want to take advantage of that. As we transition to college football, Adam, you wrote up about the ACC how do you square up this conference? It feels like there's about four or five teams in a group that could potentially win this thing. The favorite, which is Florida State, is not a massive, massive favorite. Who do you think is the bet here in the ACC?
Yeah, I think right now, especially when you get the current numbers.
To me, it's Miami, you know, And you and I were having a little bit of a conversation during the break of We know Miami is talented, right. They bring in Cam Moore, they bring in Damien Martinez, two of the top transfers at their respective positions here in college football.
But they still have to overcome Mario Christobal.
That's still the thing that Miami has to figure out, a guy who's really not very good in close games.
Miami.
I believe it was leading the second half and four or five of their losses last year that they were unable to hold on to Wow. So that is a really big concern, There's no doubt about that. At the same time, Lance Gidry's a really, really good defensive coordinator. Shannon Dawson is a good OC who I think can become a great OC now with the talent that he has down there in Coral Gables. I think this Miami team at the price, is probably the best bet to win the ACC. I also like North Carolina as an extreme long shot here. I played their all season win total over eight and a half. I believe it was plus one eighty. I think North Carolina could be really, really good. You know, they got rid of gene Chiswick. They brought in Jeff Collins, longtime defensive coordinator, also a head coach at Temple and Georgia Tech.
North Carolina.
I don't think they're going to miss Drake May that much because of what they bring back, specifically with O'maron Hampton as the running back. So I think North Carolina is your long shot, your live long shot to look at here. Also a team that I'd like to go over their win total. As I mentioned, Miami, I think is the best value. Look I get it. I mean I have Florida State power rated the highest in this conference. I have them with the highest projected win total. But I don't know about DJU no longer being with Jonathan Smith. I think that's a big question. Is good of a coaches Mike norvel Is. I think Florida State's a little bit vulnerable here.
How about the American Conference, I think it's really good. They got a lot of good teams in it. It's kind of fun to watch. Who do you like to come out of that.
Yeah, it is a really really fun conference for sure. I mean I think there's a lot of options and a lot of opportunity here. I mean, you look at a team like South Florida, for example. I don't know what they had to pay Byron Brown to stick around, but that's a kid who would have been highly coveted by a lot of the power for programs that are out there, but they managed to get him to stay around in Tampa. And so I think that's a team that has a really, really high offensive ceiling. But look for me, I mean, I think Tulane's still going to be really good. I know that they lost Willy Fritz to Houston. I think John Sumral is just as good, if not better than Willy Fritz. Brings over a lot of his Troy coaching staff, a lot of his Troy players on the defensive side from a Trojan team that was very, very strong defensively last year. He knows how to put together.
A running game.
They've had a very good running game for a long time there at Troy. I think Tulane, again, the quarterback is a question. But Ty Thompson comes in from Oregon. He was the guy who was stuck behind bo Nix the last two years. He was a five star recruit coming out of high school. There's still talent there. He just didn't get an opportunity with the Ducks. And when they brought in Dylan Gabriel, he said, all right, I'm out of here. Peace want up in Tulane. So I think Tulane is the team that I really like.
Here.
A lot of people like Memphis, but I think Tulane is the team to look at in the AAC real quick in ten seconds.
What do you guys have coming up on the website Visa dot com. Yeah, we got a lot.
In fact, we're posting a lot of our College Football Guide content over there for one to check out, so maybe a little bit easier to consume on mobile. But we've also got, you know, a refreshed NFL betting guide coming up after the preseason.
Taking a look at some line movements and stuff like that. Boom.
He is Adam burg our Vsent Managing editor. Adam thinks has always man, always fun.
All right.
That that's our number one. Hour Number two begins with what's on Michael's mind next year?
On the Lombardy line