This episode is the sixth instalment of my Australian policy series, recorded live in Sydney on February 26, 2025.

I speak with Sam Roggeveen—Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, and a former senior analyst at the Office of National Assessments—about why the United States won’t fight China for dominance in Asia, and what that means for an Australia long reliant on American protection.

We explore the limits of America’s resolve in Asia, why an alliance with Indonesia should be the top priority of Australian statecraft, whether new technologies like drones are reversing the long-held advantage of the defender, the possibility that Australia might one day acquire nuclear weapons, and how Sam’s “echidna strategy” could let us defend ourselves from a major Asian power without substantially boosting defence spending.

Video available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq9n62A07mE

Transcript available here: https://josephnoelwalker.com/sam-roggeveen-aus-policy-series/ 

This episode is the sixth instalment of my Australian policy series, recorded live in Sydney on February 26, 2025.
I speak with Sam Roggeveen&mdash;Director of the Lowy Institute&rsquo;s International Security Program, and a former senior analyst at the Office of National Assessments&mdash;about why the United States won&rsquo;t fight China for dominance in Asia, and what that means for an Australia long reliant on American protection.
We explore the limits of America&rsquo;s resolve in Asia, why an alliance with Indonesia should be the top priority of Australian statecraft, whether new technologies like drones are reversing the long-held advantage of the defender, the possibility that Australia might one day acquire nuclear weapons, and how Sam&rsquo;s &ldquo;echidna strategy&rdquo; could let us defend ourselves from a major Asian power without substantially boosting defence spending. Video available here: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq9n62A07mE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq9n62A07mE</a>
Transcript available here: <a href="https://josephnoelwalker.com/sam-roggeveen-aus-policy-series/">https://josephnoelwalker.com/sam-roggeveen-aus-policy-series/</a>&nbsp;

Joe Walker hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations with founders, scientists, scholars, economists, and public intellectuals.

Joe Walker hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations with founders, scientists, scholars, economists, and public intellectuals.

The Joe Walker Podcast

The JSP is a weekly exploration of questions that are both important and overlooked. Joe Walker, a former political speechwriter helping to build a Y Combinator-backed startup, hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations. Topics cover capitalism, science, business, culture and politics. Guests include Nobel laureates, former prime ministers, authors, entrepreneurs, investors and thought-leaders. Australia's best long-form podcast. A space for curious contrarians.

The Jolly Swagman Podcast

Sam Roggeveen — Why the US Won't Fight China for Dominance (and What it Means for Australia) [Aus. Policy Series - LIVE]

2,500 years of strategic history, 11 books, one afternoon. 

Hugh White is Australia's foremost strategic thinker: former senior adviser to Defence Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in Defence, inaugural Director of ASPI, and principal author of the 2000 Defence White Paper. He is now Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.

Before this conversation, I asked Hugh for the eleven books that most shaped his thinking on strategy, international relations and defence policy. We work through them one by one — what each book argues, what it gets right and wrong, how it shaped his worldview — and use them to tackle the big questions: why great powers start disastrous wars, how international orders collapse, and how Australia and America should respond to the rise of China.

Episode resources
Hugh's strategy reading list: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-strategy-reading-list/
Hugh's 1993 Tathra note: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-tathra-note/

Sponsors
Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at eucalyptus.health/careers.
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

2,500 years of strategic history, 11 books, one afternoon.&nbsp;
Hugh White is Australia's foremost strategic thinker: former senior adviser to Defence Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in Defence, inaugural Director of ASPI, and principal author of the 2000 Defence White Paper. He is now Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.
Before this conversation, I asked Hugh for the eleven books that most shaped his thinking on strategy, international relations and defence policy. We work through them one by one &mdash; what each book argues, what it gets right and wrong, how it shaped his worldview &mdash; and use them to tackle the big questions: why great powers start disastrous wars, how international orders collapse, and how Australia and America should respond to the rise of China.
Episode resources
<ul>
<li>Hugh's strategy reading list: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-strategy-reading-list/</li>
<li>Hugh's 1993 Tathra note: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-tathra-note/</li>
</ul>
Sponsors
<ul>
<li>Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at eucalyptus.health/careers.</li>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>
To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Why Great Powers Sleepwalk to War — A Masterclass with Prof. Hugh White

Peter Costello is the longest-serving Treasurer of Australia (1996–2007).

He led the most complex overhaul of Australia's tax system in the postwar era: introducing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) — a value-added consumption tax — while abolishing a range of indirect taxes (notably wholesale sales tax) and cutting income-tax rates.

I wanted to learn from Peter what it actually takes to achieve a reform at that scale — and why we haven’t managed anything like it since.

In this conversation, we discuss:
GST implementation war stories;
lessons on how to get big things done in government;
why major reform became so much harder after 2000;
why Peter would sometimes hide revenue estimates even from the prime minister; and
the baby bonus (introduced in 2004), which led to an uptick in Australia's total fertility rate — making Australia one of the only western countries to increase (albeit temporarily) its TFR since the demographic transition began.

 

Episode sponsor:
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

Peter Costello is the longest-serving Treasurer of Australia (1996&ndash;2007).
He led the most complex overhaul of Australia's tax system in the postwar era: introducing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) &mdash; a value-added consumption tax &mdash; while abolishing a range of indirect taxes (notably wholesale sales tax) and cutting income-tax rates.
I wanted to learn from Peter what it actually takes to achieve a reform at that scale &mdash; and why we haven&rsquo;t managed anything like it since.
In this conversation, we discuss:
<ul>
<li>GST implementation war stories;</li>
<li>lessons on how to get big things done in government;</li>
<li>why major reform became so much harder after 2000;</li>
<li>why Peter would sometimes hide revenue estimates even from the prime minister; and</li>
<li>the baby bonus (introduced in 2004), which led to an uptick in Australia's total fertility rate &mdash; making Australia one of the only western countries to increase (albeit temporarily) its TFR since the demographic transition began.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
Episode sponsor:
<ul>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at&nbsp;<a href="http://vanta.com/joe?ref=josephnoelwalker.com">vanta.com/joe</a>. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>

Australia's last great act of economic courage — Peter Costello

One bacterium causes roughly 1 in 20 cancer cases worldwide. It’s the most cancer-causing pathogen we’ve found—and the main cause of peptic ulcers. Its discovery overturned an ironclad medical dogma that the stomach was sterile.

Despite infecting about half of humanity, Helicobacter pylori wasn't discovered until 1979 and shown to cause gastritis and peptic ulcer disease in the early 1980s. Why did it evade detection for so long—and what finally broke through the consensus?

I went to Perth, Australia—where H. pylori was first discovered—to chat with Barry Marshall, gastroenterologist and co-recipient (with Robin Warren) of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discovering H. pylori and proving that it causes gastritis and peptic ulcer disease. Marshall famously infected himself with the bacterium to demonstrate causality and later helped develop clinical diagnostics like the urea breath test, which we demo live in the episode.

We discuss:


the rise and fall of stomach cancer in the West;


whether Darwin’s dyspepsia and Napoleon's stomach cancer trace to H. pylori;


the ulcer–cancer paradox;


Correa’s cascade: what H. pylori eradication reverses—and what it doesn’t;


the “H. pylori enigmas” (Africa, India, Costa Rica);


eradication prospects and an oral vaccine timeline;


how the field missed the discovery;


how the primitive internet enabled the discovery;


what the H. pylori discovery teaches us about how knowledge diffuses;


lessons from manufacturing millions of tests in Perth;


and much, much more.

 

Episode sponsors:
Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at eucalyptus.health/careers.
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

One bacterium causes roughly 1 in 20 cancer cases worldwide. It&rsquo;s the most cancer-causing pathogen we&rsquo;ve found&mdash;and the main cause of peptic ulcers. Its discovery overturned an ironclad medical dogma that the stomach was sterile.
Despite infecting about half of humanity, Helicobacter pylori wasn't discovered until 1979 and shown to cause gastritis and peptic ulcer disease in the early 1980s. Why did it evade detection for so long&mdash;and what finally broke through the consensus?
I went to Perth, Australia&mdash;where H. pylori was first discovered&mdash;to chat with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Marshall">Barry Marshall</a>, gastroenterologist and co-recipient (with Robin Warren) of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discovering H. pylori and proving that it causes gastritis and peptic ulcer disease. Marshall famously infected himself with the bacterium to demonstrate causality and later helped develop clinical diagnostics like the urea breath test, which we demo live in the episode.
We discuss:
<ul>
<li>
the rise and fall of stomach cancer in the West;
</li>
<li>
whether Darwin&rsquo;s dyspepsia and Napoleon's stomach cancer trace to H. pylori;
</li>
<li>
the ulcer&ndash;cancer paradox;
</li>
<li>
Correa&rsquo;s cascade: what H. pylori eradication reverses&mdash;and what it doesn&rsquo;t;
</li>
<li>
the &ldquo;H. pylori enigmas&rdquo; (Africa, India, Costa Rica);
</li>
<li>
eradication prospects and an oral vaccine timeline;
</li>
<li>
how the field missed the discovery;
</li>
<li>
how the primitive internet enabled the discovery;
</li>
<li>
what the H. pylori discovery teaches us about how knowledge diffuses;
</li>
<li>
lessons from manufacturing millions of tests in Perth;
</li>
<li>
and much, much more.
</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
Episode sponsors:
<ul>
<li>Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at <a href="https://www.eucalyptus.health/careers">eucalyptus.health/careers</a>.</li>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at&nbsp;<a href="http://vanta.com/joe?ref=josephnoelwalker.com">vanta.com/joe</a>. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>

Sam Roggeveen — Why the US Won't Fight China for Dominance (and What it Means for Australia) [Aus. Policy Series - LIVE]

The Jolly Swagman Podcast

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