John Hempton is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at Bronte Capital.Show notes

Selected links
Follow John: Blog | Twitter
'Approaches to Studying Policy Representation', paper by David Broockman
'Indebted Demand', paper by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi




Topics discussed
Lessons from past market cycles. 4:51
Astarra-Trio. 10:43
Retail investors: Welcome to the party. 24:14
When John met Jim (Simons). 28:13
Can you predict market tops? 33:00
Are there any good reasons for believing this time really is different? 40:37
The Dunning-Kruger effect is everywhere. 52:18
A behavioural model of the coronavirus. 55:45
The illusion of the political centre. 1:10:19
How inequality may be distorting monetary policy, and vice versa. 1:23:00
SPAC attack. 1:26:03
The puzzle of Middleby. 1:31:15
Bull masturbating. 1:33:01
2020: a year of puzzles. 1:42:30

John Hempton is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at Bronte Capital.<h1>Show notes</h1>Selected links<ul>
<li>Follow John:<a href="http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/"> Blog</a> |<a href="https://twitter.com/John_Hempton?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor"> Twitter</a>
</li>
<li>'Approaches to Studying Policy Representation',<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lsq.12110"> paper</a> by David Broockman</li>
<li>'Indebted Demand',<a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/straub/files/mss_indebteddemand.pdf"> paper</a> by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi</li>
</ul> Topics discussed<ul>
<li>Lessons from past market cycles. 4:51</li>
<li>Astarra-Trio. 10:43</li>
<li>Retail investors: Welcome to the party. 24:14</li>
<li>When John met Jim (Simons). 28:13</li>
<li>Can you predict market tops? 33:00</li>
<li>Are there any good reasons for believing this time really is different? 40:37</li>
<li>The Dunning-Kruger effect is everywhere. 52:18</li>
<li>A behavioural model of the coronavirus. 55:45</li>
<li>The illusion of the political centre. 1:10:19</li>
<li>How inequality may be distorting monetary policy, and vice versa. 1:23:00</li>
<li>SPAC attack. 1:26:03</li>
<li>The puzzle of Middleby. 1:31:15</li>
<li>Bull masturbating. 1:33:01</li>
<li>2020: a year of puzzles. 1:42:30</li>
</ul>

Joe Walker hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations with founders, scientists, scholars, economists, and public intellectuals.

Joe Walker hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations with founders, scientists, scholars, economists, and public intellectuals.

The Joe Walker Podcast

The JSP is a weekly exploration of questions that are both important and overlooked. Joe Walker, a former political speechwriter helping to build a Y Combinator-backed startup, hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations. Topics cover capitalism, science, business, culture and politics. Guests include Nobel laureates, former prime ministers, authors, entrepreneurs, investors and thought-leaders. Australia's best long-form podcast. A space for curious contrarians.

The Jolly Swagman Podcast

What I Learned In 2020 - John Hempton

Glyn Davis and Terry Moran are two of the very small number of Australians who have literally sat in the Cabinet Room, week after week, watching the machinery of government operate from the inside.

Both served as Secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PM&C) — the most senior public servant in Australia. Terry held the role from 2008 to 2011 (including during the Global Financial Crisis). Glyn held it from 2022 to 2025.

Both have also held equivalent roles at the state level: Glyn as Director-General of the Office of the Cabinet in Queensland (1995–96), and Terry as Secretary of the Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet (2000–08). Before PM&C, Glyn was Vice-Chancellor of the University of Melbourne for thirteen years, and later ran the Paul Ramsay Foundation (Australia’s largest philanthropic foundation). Terry’s career spanned senior roles across the Commonwealth and Victorian public services, including as CEO of Victoria’s Office of the State Training Board, inaugural CEO of the Australian National Training Authority, and Queensland’s Director-General of Education. He later served as Chancellor of Federation University.

In this episode, we trace the routines, conventions, and systems that shape power in Canberra. Where, exactly, does a prime minister’s power come from? What separates a good Cabinet submission from a bad one? What actually happens in the Cabinet room once the doors close? How does Australia’s Westminster model differ from the UK and Canada? And why is Australia so unusually good at bureaucracy?

(Episode recorded on 8 December 2025.)

Sponsors
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Glyn Davis and Terry Moran are two of the very small number of Australians who have literally sat in the Cabinet Room, week after week, watching the machinery of government operate from the inside.
Both served as Secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PM&amp;C) &mdash; the most senior public servant in Australia. Terry held the role from 2008 to 2011 (including during the Global Financial Crisis). Glyn held it from 2022 to 2025.
Both have also held equivalent roles at the state level: Glyn as Director-General of the Office of the Cabinet in Queensland (1995&ndash;96), and Terry as Secretary of the Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet (2000&ndash;08). Before PM&amp;C, Glyn was Vice-Chancellor of the University of Melbourne for thirteen years, and later ran the Paul Ramsay Foundation (Australia&rsquo;s largest philanthropic foundation). Terry&rsquo;s career spanned senior roles across the Commonwealth and Victorian public services, including as CEO of Victoria&rsquo;s Office of the State Training Board, inaugural CEO of the Australian National Training Authority, and Queensland&rsquo;s Director-General of Education. He later served as Chancellor of Federation University.
In this episode, we trace the routines, conventions, and systems that shape power in Canberra. Where, exactly, does a prime minister&rsquo;s power come from? What separates a good Cabinet submission from a bad one? What actually happens in the Cabinet room once the doors close? How does Australia&rsquo;s Westminster model differ from the UK and Canada? And why is Australia so unusually good at bureaucracy?
(Episode recorded on 8 December 2025.)
Sponsors
<ul>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>
To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Cabinet is Australia's Operating System — Here's How It Works (Glyn Davis & Terry Moran)

2,500 years of strategic history, 11 books, one afternoon. 

Hugh White is Australia's foremost strategic thinker: former senior adviser to Defence Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in Defence, inaugural Director of ASPI, and principal author of the 2000 Defence White Paper. He is now Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.

Before this conversation, I asked Hugh for the eleven books that most shaped his thinking on strategy, international relations and defence policy. We work through them one by one — what each book argues, what it gets right and wrong, how it shaped his worldview — and use them to tackle the big questions: why great powers start disastrous wars, how international orders collapse, and how Australia and America should respond to the rise of China.

Episode resources
Hugh's strategy reading list: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-strategy-reading-list/
Hugh's 1993 Tathra note: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-tathra-note/

Sponsors
Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at eucalyptus.health/careers.
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

2,500 years of strategic history, 11 books, one afternoon.&nbsp;
Hugh White is Australia's foremost strategic thinker: former senior adviser to Defence Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in Defence, inaugural Director of ASPI, and principal author of the 2000 Defence White Paper. He is now Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.
Before this conversation, I asked Hugh for the eleven books that most shaped his thinking on strategy, international relations and defence policy. We work through them one by one &mdash; what each book argues, what it gets right and wrong, how it shaped his worldview &mdash; and use them to tackle the big questions: why great powers start disastrous wars, how international orders collapse, and how Australia and America should respond to the rise of China.
Episode resources
<ul>
<li>Hugh's strategy reading list: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-strategy-reading-list/</li>
<li>Hugh's 1993 Tathra note: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-tathra-note/</li>
</ul>
Sponsors
<ul>
<li>Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at eucalyptus.health/careers.</li>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>
To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Why Great Powers Sleepwalk to War — A Masterclass with Prof. Hugh White

Peter Costello is the longest-serving Treasurer of Australia (1996–2007).

He led the most complex overhaul of Australia's tax system in the postwar era: introducing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) — a value-added consumption tax — while abolishing a range of indirect taxes (notably wholesale sales tax) and cutting income-tax rates.

I wanted to learn from Peter what it actually takes to achieve a reform at that scale — and why we haven’t managed anything like it since.

In this conversation, we discuss:
GST implementation war stories;
lessons on how to get big things done in government;
why major reform became so much harder after 2000;
why Peter would sometimes hide revenue estimates even from the prime minister; and
the baby bonus (introduced in 2004), which led to an uptick in Australia's total fertility rate — making Australia one of the only western countries to increase (albeit temporarily) its TFR since the demographic transition began.

 

Episode sponsor:
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

Peter Costello is the longest-serving Treasurer of Australia (1996&ndash;2007).
He led the most complex overhaul of Australia's tax system in the postwar era: introducing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) &mdash; a value-added consumption tax &mdash; while abolishing a range of indirect taxes (notably wholesale sales tax) and cutting income-tax rates.
I wanted to learn from Peter what it actually takes to achieve a reform at that scale &mdash; and why we haven&rsquo;t managed anything like it since.
In this conversation, we discuss:
<ul>
<li>GST implementation war stories;</li>
<li>lessons on how to get big things done in government;</li>
<li>why major reform became so much harder after 2000;</li>
<li>why Peter would sometimes hide revenue estimates even from the prime minister; and</li>
<li>the baby bonus (introduced in 2004), which led to an uptick in Australia's total fertility rate &mdash; making Australia one of the only western countries to increase (albeit temporarily) its TFR since the demographic transition began.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
Episode sponsor:
<ul>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at&nbsp;<a href="http://vanta.com/joe?ref=josephnoelwalker.com">vanta.com/joe</a>. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>

What I Learned In 2020 - John Hempton

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