Nassim Taleb is trader, researcher and essayist. He is the author of the Incerto, a multi-volume philosophical and practical meditation on uncertainty.

Full transcript available at: https://josephnoelwalker.com/nassim-taleb-158/

Nassim Taleb is trader, researcher and essayist. He is the author of the Incerto, a multi-volume philosophical and practical meditation on uncertainty.
Full transcript available at: https://josephnoelwalker.com/nassim-taleb-158/

Well-researched interviews on ideas, technology, and policy. (Plus a recurring series on Australian public policy.)

Well-researched interviews on ideas, technology, and policy. (Plus a recurring series on Australian public policy.)

Joe Walker hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations with founders, scientists, scholars, economists, and public intellectuals.

The Joe Walker Podcast

Joe Walker hosts refreshingly in-depth conversations with founders, scientists, scholars, economists, and public intellectuals.

Nassim Taleb — Meditations on Extremistan

Patrick Weller is emeritus professor of politics and public policy at Griffith University and the author or editor of some forty books.

Pat wrote what was the first (and may still be the only) Westminster-system equivalent to Robert Caro's epic meditation on Lyndon Johnson: a detailed study of how Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser wielded power. First published in 1989, it's a fascinating study of how one individual climbed into the hermit-crab-shell that is the prime ministership and made it his own.

Pat is also the author of two other detailed studies of Australian political leaders, and the definitive history of cabinet government in Australia.

Pat's work offers a picture of how human institutions – in this case, Westminster cabinets – work in practice and on a day-to-day level. Understanding the messiness, the beautiful malleability of the institutions, and their human bottlenecks has helped me build a more accurate model of the world – useful for predicting how governments may both respond to and utilise powerful new technologies.

Sponsors
Effective Altruism Australia: how Australians give to GiveWell's top charities — tax-deductibly, and with 100% pass-through. Until June 30, 2026, EAA is matching new donations up to $300,000. Donate at https://www.eaa.org.au/joewalker.
e61: a non-partisan economic research institute focused on Australian public policy. To receive a copy of the new essay I co-authored with e61 on data centres and the compute economy, go to https://www.e61.in/joewalker.

To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Patrick Weller is emeritus professor of politics and public policy at Griffith University and the author or editor of some forty books.
Pat wrote what was the first (and may still be the only) Westminster-system equivalent to Robert Caro's epic meditation on Lyndon Johnson: a detailed study of how Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser wielded power. First published in 1989, it's a fascinating study of how one individual climbed into the hermit-crab-shell that is the prime ministership and made it his own.
Pat is also the author of two other detailed studies of Australian political leaders, and the definitive history of cabinet government in Australia.
Pat's work offers a picture of how human institutions &ndash; in this case, Westminster cabinets &ndash; work in practice and on a day-to-day level. Understanding the messiness, the beautiful malleability of the institutions, and their human bottlenecks has helped me build a more accurate model of the world &ndash; useful for predicting how governments may both respond to and utilise powerful new technologies.
Sponsors
<ul>
<li>Effective Altruism Australia: how Australians give to GiveWell's top charities &mdash; tax-deductibly, and with 100% pass-through. Until June 30, 2026, EAA is matching new donations up to $300,000. Donate at <a href="https://www.eaa.org.au/joewalker">https://www.eaa.org.au/joewalker</a>.</li>
<li>e61: a non-partisan economic research institute focused on Australian public policy. To receive a copy of the new essay I co-authored with e61 on data centres and the compute economy, go to <a href="https://www.e61.in/joewalker">https://www.e61.in/joewalker</a>.</li>
</ul>
To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

"Just because I consulted doesn't mean I didn't dominate": How prime ministers really govern — Patrick Weller

Danielle Wood is an Australian economist and the current chair of the Australian Productivity Commission.

Had a lot of fun chatting with Dani about how she's making sense of AI and its implications for policy. We discuss:
whether AI will be more like the internet or the Industrial Revolution,
where in the AI stack the profits will ultimately flow (and why it might not be the model layer),
why diffusion is the "main game" for Australian policymakers,
whether there's a case for government support of data centres,
why the AI jobpocalypse story is too crude (and why humans may still have jobs even under transformative AI),
whether AI will turn out to be a normal or abnormal technology, or both,
and why in either case Australia shouldn't follow the EU in legislating an AI Act.

Sponsors
Effective Altruism Australia: how Australians give to GiveWell's top charities — tax-deductibly, and with 100% pass-through. Until June 30, 2026, EAA is matching new donations up to $300,000. Donate at https://www.eaa.org.au/joewalker.
e61: a non-partisan economic research institute focused on Australian public policy. To receive a copy of the new essay I co-authored with e61 on data centres and the compute economy, go to https://www.e61.in/joewalker.
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at https://www.vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Danielle Wood is an Australian economist and the current chair of the Australian Productivity Commission.
Had a lot of fun chatting with Dani about how she's making sense of AI and its implications for policy. We discuss:
<ul>
<li>whether AI will be more like the internet or the Industrial Revolution,</li>
<li>where in the AI stack the profits will ultimately flow (and why it might not be the model layer),</li>
<li>why diffusion is the "main game" for Australian policymakers,</li>
<li>whether there's a case for government support of data centres,</li>
<li>why the AI jobpocalypse story is too crude (and why humans may still have jobs even under transformative AI),</li>
<li>whether AI will turn out to be a normal or abnormal technology, or both,</li>
<li>and why in either case Australia shouldn't follow the EU in legislating an AI Act.</li>
</ul>
Sponsors
<ul>
<li>Effective Altruism Australia: how Australians give to GiveWell's top charities &mdash; tax-deductibly, and with 100% pass-through. Until June 30, 2026, EAA is matching new donations up to $300,000. Donate at <a href="https://www.eaa.org.au/joewalker">https://www.eaa.org.au/joewalker</a>.</li>
<li>e61: a non-partisan economic research institute focused on Australian public policy. To receive a copy of the new essay I co-authored with e61 on data centres and the compute economy, go to <a href="https://www.e61.in/joewalker">https://www.e61.in/joewalker</a>.</li>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at <a href="https://www.vanta.com/joe">https://www.vanta.com/joe</a>. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>
To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

How Can Australia Get a Piece of the AI Action? — Danielle Wood

Part 3 of a three-part immigration series this week. Martin Parkinson (economics) available here; Mark Cully (history) available here.

Mike Pezzullo ran the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (2013-2014), then the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (2014-2017), then the Department of Home Affairs (2017-2023). For more than a decade across those three roles, he was responsible for how Australia selects migrants, screens for risk, and thinks about social cohesion under stress.

We discuss the central but underappreciated fact about how Australia selects migrants: the diversity of our intake is a happy accident of global migration flows, not engineered policy. We also walk through how the visa system actually screens for security and character, why Pezzullo doubts the Bondi terrorist's father would have been refused a student visa in 1998 even with today's tools, what a 2027 China-Taiwan blockade would mean for the Australian migration system in real time, and a never-aired proposal for fixing Australia's "permanent temporaries" problem — a constitutional amendment Pezzullo calls "the Pezzullo special." We finish with: should "populate or perish" return as defence policy? 

(Episode recorded on 16 March 2026.)

Sponsors
Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at eucalyptus.health/careers.
Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".

To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Part 3 of a <a href="https://josephnoelwalker.com/australias-immigration-blind-spot/">three-part immigration series this week</a>. Martin Parkinson (economics) available <a href="https://josephnoelwalker.com/martin-parkinson/">here</a>; Mark Cully (history) available <a href="https://josephnoelwalker.com/mark-cully/">here</a>.
Mike Pezzullo ran the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (2013-2014), then the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (2014-2017), then the Department of Home Affairs (2017-2023). For more than a decade across those three roles, he was responsible for how Australia selects migrants, screens for risk, and thinks about social cohesion under stress.
We discuss the central but underappreciated fact about how Australia selects migrants: the diversity of our intake is a happy accident of global migration flows, not engineered policy. We also walk through how the visa system actually screens for security and character, why Pezzullo doubts the Bondi terrorist's father would have been refused a student visa in 1998 even with today's tools, what a 2027 China-Taiwan blockade would mean for the Australian migration system in real time, and a never-aired proposal for fixing Australia's "permanent temporaries" problem &mdash; a constitutional amendment Pezzullo calls "the Pezzullo special." We finish with: should "populate or perish" return as defence policy?&nbsp;
(Episode recorded on 16 March 2026.)
Sponsors
<ul>
<li>Eucalyptus: the Aussie startup providing digital healthcare clinics to help patients around the world take control of their quality of life. Euc is looking to hire ambitious young Aussies and Brits. You can check out their open roles at <a href="https://www.eucalyptus.health/careers">eucalyptus.health/careers</a>.</li>
<li>Vanta: helps businesses automate security and compliance needs. For a limited time, get one thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/joe. Use the discount code "JOE".</li>
</ul>
To sponsor a future episode, go to https://josephnoelwalker.com/sponsor/

Nassim Taleb — Meditations on Extremistan

The Joe Walker Podcast

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips