The Herd with Colin CowherdColin points to the major hole in NBA analytics with the Warriors bringing home another win since acquiring Jimmy Butler and the value he's added that doesn't show up on a stat sheet
There are a lot of people who think the Steelers have a chance to win a Super Bowl next season...which is ridiculous
The Rams continue to do the right thing
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Here we go on a Friday, and a good one. It's gonna be Mark Fugh Gonzaga coach selection weekend. Here we go Selection Sunday, Max Crosby the Raiders. Yesterday I made my NFC predictions. Those are the difficult ones. The AFC one hour from now generally a little easier because you have four star high end quarterbacks than the AFC. We know it's a quarterback centric and generated league, so that will happen in one hour from now. So, Jamie, So I got three different samples. I watched first quarter of the Warriors with friends, listen to the second quarter driving, and watched the second half at home by myself, and they good, this thing is getting really really interesting.
Wow another tomato? Can that the Warriors beat up? Another nice victory?
Yeah? Beat Steph Curry was asked about retirement and a great quote he said, it's not about stats or anything. It will be Can I still dominate a game? Here's the good news. He didn't last night and they blew out another team. And I want you to think about this, think about this. So they traded got him out of town. Andrew Wiggins wing player eighteen points a game in his career. They brought in Jimmy Butler, wing player career, eighteen points a game. That shouldn't radically change the team, right, eighteen points leaves, eighteen points arrives Nope, O hunch, My hunch was right. Totally different players. Wiggins's soft, empty calories floats around, forgettable, and Jimmy Butler is intentional, intense, physical, impactful. There's a gravity. Analytics does not measure all this stuff. Wing players eighteen a game. No, Totally different players. Butler generates double teams. He's creative, he gets guys shots. He is an attacking player. Every possession he creates advantages. Wiggins benefited from advantages created by other players. And that is the big difference. Jonathan Kaminga returned last night, Oh, another twenty points a game. Last night you had eight guys in double figures. Butler wasn't even one of them. Steph didn't even play well. But it shows the hole in a lot of analytics and a lot of stats. Eighteen of game leaves, eighteen in game arrives totally different team, eight guys in double figures. They got a guy from like the Netherlands, a big who has a nice shooting touch, and Warriors are now thirteen and one with Jimmy Butler. And again he did not play last night particularly well. But this thing is real. I know you're saying, well, it's a lot of tomato cans, but when your two best players don't play well and you blow people out, just it's an incredible influence. We all know Steph has always had a massive influence on the history of basketball. Combine that with the influence Butler has with the Warriors, and here's shack.
After the last three four years, everybody's been running the three man weave with a table the key. Every team is shooting threes, and they want to blame the analytics. It's because everybody wanted to beat the Golden State Wars because of this guy.
Yep, it's a real thing. And by the way, not only is it influencing the Warriors and influencing basketball. It's influencing ratings, the ratings in the last three weeks. A big part of that because Lebron's not playing again, and I still don't contend Luca's the TV draw. I think Lebron and Steph for the TV draws. Warriors with another dominating win last night. So I saw this. If you want to know why they keep building casinos and companies like Draft Kings are doing well, the Steelers have attracted the second most Super Bowl bets this week. That's the appropriate response, laughing. This is why the house Owas wins. So memo to the people betting the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers last thirty starts. He's eleven and nineteen, passer rating under ninety, completing sixty three percent of his throws, and has not won a playoff game since like twenty twenty one. He'll be joining a head coach that hasn't wont to playoff games in twenty sixteen. And by the way, but there is a there is a lure and a llure to Aaron Rodgers because who was the most bet team last year? In twenty twenty four to win the Super Bowl. Chiefs nope, Bill's nope, Niners nope, Lions nope, Eagles nope, Ravens nope. It was the New York Jets with Aaron Rodgers. So Tomlin is toned af to offense and Aaron's passed his prime. So that's just not saying that's not even saying playoffs. That's not saying playoffs. So and I here's something that doesn't get talked about with the Steelers. And this is why I've said Aaron Rodgers should go to the Giants. Better left tackle, offensive coach, great weapon, you'll have more power, and the rosters aren't that different. They're really not. Pittsburgh's just better. They're not that different. Pittsburgh doesn't have a left tackle. Giants do. But have you ever noticed this? And I never hear anybody talk about this, So everybody knows in the business. Mike Tomblin's a motivator, right, That's why his teams play well as underdogs, but not his favorites. He's a great motivator. But when does motivating not work in the playoffs because everybody's motivated, right, But for a long, tedious regular season, the guy that can bark Boy September, October November. It can help, But if you go to the last twelve Steeler games, they're three and nine and a lot of blowout losses. Motivation is nonsense. Screaming and yelling and getting guys fired up doesn't mean anything in the playoffs. Guys are ready to go, they got their bonuses ready, they want a trophy. Everybody's doing the same thing, focusing on that moment sudden death football. You don't need motivation, you need analytics. You know, you need circumstantial greatness, situational brilliance, and so in what's doubling down on this? A raw raw becomest row for Pittsburgh Every year at the end of the year. If you go back and look at a stat the Steelers in December or later, the last two seasons have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Five of the last seven seasons, the Steelers have lost three plus games in a row late in the year. Why is this because as the game has gotten smarter and more offensive, the motivating defensive coach that stuff wears out by December. You can only give the same speeches so many times it falls on deaf ears so the Steelers have become one of the bad NFL teams at the end of seasons. That motivation stuff. It's great early, it's great over a long season. It's great when you're an underdog. It doesn't mean anything against the Ravens, Bills or Chiefs or Tom Brady in his prime. When it's you know, January, it doesn't mean anything. So the Steelers five of the last seven seasons. Russell Wilson could tell Aaron Rodgers, if he goes there, it gets old, nobody wants to hear it. It doesn't have the same impact. So you know, they are the second most bet team. Just the idea of Aaron Rodgers and adding DK Metcalf for one hundred and fifty million dollars, and DK Metcalf says, I don't even care whose quarterback here.
They made me feel we felt welcome first off, and then secondly, they made me feel like they had they had the right decision, you know, with who's gonna be throwing me the football? And you know, I'm not making a decision in the quarterback room, so I'm just gonna try to do the best of my abilities to you know, you know, help whoever they have out there throwing the football, so you know they they make the correct decisions, you know, to bring the quarterback in here. So I'm just gonna roll with.
That mid March, no idea who the quarterback is? Does that sound like a super Bowl team. I don't even know who the quarterback is. We got like four guys. We got offers out for four guys. Now it's interesting. So I've been saying this week my hunch, he signs with the Steelers, I would sign with the New York Giants. I would sign with the Giants. I think the Giants have more pieces that work for aaron offensive coach, young star receiver, excellent left tackle, and a couple of wins over the Cowboys. I think the idea of going to Pittsburgh, you got Joe Burrow twice, you got the Ravens twice. Cleveland's got a great coach and a very good roster. No thanks. I mean Pittsburgh doesn't have a left tackle now, Miles Garrett, probably Hendrickson coming off the edge, and whoever Baltimore has this year. So it'll be interesting to watch. But to me, the idea that the second most bet team, it's just the allure of the Steelers brand, the allure of the alpha Mike Tomlin, the allure of Aaron Rodgers, their bet to win the Super Bowl more than the teams that we almost feel it's an automatic they win their division. It's crazy, that's the house almost always wins for a reason. Cowboys are fighting. The process in Philadelphia is officially over. And the Lakers, once again, even with Luca and Austin Reeves playing great, are awful and get blown out. Did you notice that.
Listen, you were doing so good and then you had to throw in that jab at the Lakers? Unnecessary? It's like a flagrant foul right there. Come on, they were missing three starters college, but real quick to go back to the Steelers. Can you just give me the thought process which you think people are betting on the Steelers and it can't just be Aaron Rodgers and DK metcalf.
Oh, I have to say. So, here's what I think like when people bet bitcoin. I mean, there's no centralized bank in America that acknowledges the Warren Buffetts, who, by the way, ditched eighty billion dollars at Applestock and bought bonds a year ago. Looks pretty smart today. Right, Well, they don't buy it at all. Right, most of the top financial people they appease the bitcoin crowd. But when you buy bitcomb coin, you're buying hope. You're buying essentially, Hey, I'm ahead of everybody else buying the Steelers is Hey, I'm gonna buy him before they get Aaron Rodgers and watch them pop. But it's just why, it's why the house wins. Aaron in the last thirty games, two conferences, two coaches, both Laflora and Mike Tomlin considered above average. He's eleven and nineteen passer rating in the eighties. That's what he is. That is exactly what he is. And Tomlin, between Aaron and Tomlin, they do not perform well late in the year. The numbers don't lie. So it's I think it's it's the bitcoin crowd. You're betting that you're smarter than everybody else, and you're getting in on something before it truly explodes.
And that would be forty one year old Aaron Rodgers. That that's what you're betting on.
Hope with Dk metcalf Ooh wow.
Dk metcalf He's gonna swing the title odds right there.
Only again dk Metcalf is probably worth half a point a game.
This is why the house always wins, because the general public is not that smart. Huh. That's a straight up dumb bet. If one of my friends was like, hey, Steelers to win the title, Like, what are you talking about that?
That's insanity.
So now in forty five minutes, I will give you my AFC predictions. I'll tell you I'm looking at the AFC West. Is that the best coach division of all time?
I hope you have the Broncos in the playoffs, play Andy.
Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh, Pete Carroll. You know, like they always say, when you sit down at a poker table, if you can't spot the mark, it's you who's the mark. I mean, that's just a Super Bowl trophies everywhere, or at least getting to them. I mean that is a three Super Bowl trophies and a Natty Trophy and a Super Bowl appearance in Jim Harball. That divisions hard. My guess on the AFC West this year, nobody wins more than twelve, nobody wins fewer than eight. It is just going to be all jammed out. I think the NFC North is almost as good. But we don't know if JJ McCarthy can play. I mean, I say what you want about Geno Smith, I know he can play. I don't know what JJ McCarthy is in Minnesota, so I have no idea.
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So I thought last night, if you ever wondered the value of Lebron James, here's a great example. Luca goes off forty five points, Austin Reeves is excellent for the first time in a while, he's been hurt, and the Lakers get shelled. Okay, so Luca can go crazy and Austin Reeves can too. A D could go crazy, but if Lebron's not there, they can get blown out. Yet Lebron without a co star this year is seven and one and the team is Everything's fine without Luca, Austin Reeves or a D. That's the difference. Lebron is the Swiss army knife. He's the coach on the floor. Remember when they played Boklynd and JJ Reddick complained he goes nobody communicated. He never complains about that. When Lebron's on the floor, you could have Luca, you can have Austin, you could have Ruiy, you could have anybody. Lebron's not on the floor. Yeah, the communications not as good. There is a presence there to Lebron and last night it's a great example. Year twenty two, no empty stats. All his stats matter, all of the matter. This team is seven and one without without either Ad or Luca. Now think about how great Ad and Luke are. Arguably Luke after SGA is the most gifted offensive player and AD's arguably the most gifted defensive player. They're out, doesn't matter. We can win Homer away. So he is still the most essential player on the Lakers. And there's three guys in the league. So the Celtics are ten and two without Tatum. He's not affecting outcomes, he's not affecting points. There are three players in this league. When they're gone, Fit hits the shan. When SGA doesn't play for the Thunder, they average like significantly, like what is it without it? They average eighteen points less a game. When Yo Kisch has gone for the Nuggets, they average fifteen points less a game, and when Lebron is out for the Lakers, they're bad. So Yo Kisch is the best player in the league, SGA is gonna win MVP, and on any given night, Lebron is the second best player or arguably the second vote for the MVP. Like, those are the three guys in this league. The Nuggets without Yo Kich, the thunder without SGA, and the Lakers without Lebron the soul of the team. So if you want to vote MVP, Sga, Yokich, Lebron's not a bad place to go. As great as Tatum is, eh, it didn't really matter, and I'm not denying he's really really good. It just it is again once again, Lucas amazing, Austin Reaves is amazing. No Lebron and JJ Reddick said, yeah, here's another ugly loss.
We didn't execute at a high level. And frankly, when you're missing guys, you have to play hard, but you also have to execute. You know, the play hard, play smart, and we played hard. I don't think we played smart defensively, and again, playing a lot of lineups we haven't played all year without practicing together, it's gonna happen.
So what are the two things he's complained about when Lebron didn't play. We're not communicating and we're not smart. What is Lebron James the great communicator and really smart? So basketball is not just hops, handles and points like that's Lebron's essence. By the way, that's Jokich's essence. It's not just the points in the rebounds. He is a point center. Everything goes through him. And by the way, ok C is a very good basketball team and they're still great defensively when SGA doesn't pla But one of the reasons I've said SGA should be the MVP. They're twenty four years old. He's babysitting them on offense. When the babysitter leaves ice cream on the shag rug like it goes sideways. The offense for Oklahoma City with all that talent Williams and chet Holm, SGA is gone. He got fifteen to eighteen points less. That's why you're an MVP. Jmack with a news.
Turn on the news. This is the Herdline News.
Right, Let's start the day with your favorite team out of the northwest of the Seattle Seahawks. Sam Darnold is officially a part of the squad. I think that three year, one hundred and a half million dollar contract. Donald was in Seattle to get introduced by the team yesterday and was asked about last season's disappointing finish in Minnesota.
I was waiting for someone to bring that up. By the way, I appreciate appreciate that. No, that's it's fair, man, Like, you know, you get all the way to that point, you have the season that we had offensively as a team, and then you know, you run into at the end of the day, like only one team can can win the Super Bowl, and unfortunately we weren't that team. But I learned a ton.
I'll say this again. He was sacked nine times against the Rams. I'm not gonna put that one on him. They could not block the Ram Yeah, I mean they could not block the Rams. Now, he was awful against Detroit in the biggest game in Detroit in a long time. But the Rams. I'm not putting that on Sammy, that that old line just got mauled for three and a half hours.
Now, our great producing staff found that Darnald actually gave credit to Rock Hurt.
I saw that. I thought you were going to bring that up.
I didn't want to lead with that. I want to kind of back in.
No, I think that's and I've heard the same thing is that Donald thought he was so cognitively sharp. Is that brought pretty and Darnald got along great And Donald told people that, I know, he said, that's the smartest player I've ever played with. So I'm not doubting Brock smart, but he to his credit. That's really why Brock's in the league. His ability to diagnose a play. We've said this before, certain guys don't see the field, Zach Wilson of the Jets. Justin fields, You're like, are they seeing the field yet?
C J.
Stroudenbrock Purty first start, You're like, oh, they see everything. Everything's clear to them.
It's kind of a negative, but a big knock on Like some of these quarterbacks we don't process quickly. They have slow eyes. Yeah, listen heard that phrase, and like Rock Purty is the opposite of that. He's like a machine, a robot and Colin I listen.
Jaden Daniels was the greatest example last year. Jaden Daniels, Oh the bad old line. He I mean, it's really amazing. He saw everything instantly, justin Zach. A lot of these guys, they just don't see it now.
Listen, We're not going to be doing the show in twenty five years, but I will personally guarantee the next generation listening, Rock Purty will be an NFL coach one day. Everything that's come out of San Francisco is he's a leader in the locker room. He's a super smart ex as and those guys football family like this guy knows football. I think you missed the forty nine ers yesterday. In your playoff teams.
We'll see. I do think of all the teams drafting, I'm I'm really interested to what the Niners do. Twelve picks, a lot of compensation picks compensatory. So the Niners have twelve picks and they have to hit on six or seven of these. When you're losing ufunga Green Law, you're losing great defensive players. You have to hit. In a linebacker, in a safety, you can't use scout team got you have to hit. I mean, I can tell you two of the positions are drafting linebacker and safety. Near the top of the draft. They have to.
I'm fairly certain they will be getting one of the top three tight ends Warren Loveland or Fannin the kid from the Mac who's bowling Green.
Yeah, there you go, all right.
Next up, DeVante Adams was in Woodland Hills out here ye today in California for the RAMS press conference. DeVante discussed how big of a presence Sean McVay was in his recruitment to Los Angeles.
Understanding of you know where I am in what game.
Obviously have an opportunity to play with Matthew is a heck of opportunity and can't wait to get started with that, and obviously the rest of the tea to being able to be with a contender at this point in my career is is something I've been waiting for for a while now and been putting the work in to make it happen.
But now we got it. So succited.
So he went, well run Green Bay, messy Raiders, messy jets, Well run Los Angeles. So the beginning of his career and my guest, the end of his career Green Bay and Rams, he'll get great offensive coaches, great structure, because I I did you read the story about what McVeigh did to get Devonte Adams. So McVeigh was on vacation. He said, I was on the phone with Devonte Adams more than I was with my wife. This is a McVay move Stafford. Remember he bumped into Matt Stafford. McVay bumped into Stafford in Mexico on vacation and he talked, he talked, he sold, he sold, he sold. Unless you know, the owner said okay on the tarmac, let's make the move. This is a McVeigh move. He this is the guy that he saw fit. And by the way, the Rams, they get rid of people quick, but when they want somebody, well, when McVeigh wants that's right. Stafford and Devonte those are absolute McVeigh acquisition.
It's the closer McVeigh. That's what he is. He could be like a college football coach because he's such a good recruiter that.
He sells you.
He's got the high energy. You know, hearing you gloss about how he wore down Devont Adams. No, I got a little McVeigh and me I like to wear you down on some certain topics and Vaculla He's like, fine, fine, Jay whatever, fine, I don't care. Final story, Colin, Let's go to Cooper Cup, the former La Rams receiver. I hear you're hot on this. He was released by the Rams, and there are odds for his new team. The Denver Broncos are at the top of the list at plus four to ten, followed by and this doesn't make sense the Dallas Cowboys. Why is he going there?
I don't it's funny about that. He does not get open anymore now in zone coverage. Could he be a decent third down receiver. Yeah, but he just doesn't run the same he's He just does not get open and all the all the numbers tell you he does not what scheme him up.
So he's messed up against the linebacker and he's not gonna get open against Quarner.
Well, but McVeigh couldn't scheme him up.
Well that because he was the number two guy. If you make him the number three, three, or four, that's a bit of an advantage, you know.
I take him for free, but I don't want to pay anything, And so I think the Rams are looking well. I mean again, I think there's some some value there. But he's closer to a thirty catch guy than he is an eighty catch guy. He aged very quickly, you know, knees, I don't have to.
I like to buy low on motivated athletes to overcome obstacles, like you know how hard this guy's going to be working after publicly getting fought.
Well, I think you can work as hard as you want. But there are numbers and age limitations to what wide receivers.
A number Collin, you know that no.
Age is not just a number. Age is real for receivers and corners. Well, there's a.
Rumor that Cooper Cups on a flight to Germany right now to get that Kobe treatment.
That who's saying that?
I'm just making that. But listen, there's stuff you can do out there to turn back the clock a little bit.
Come on, Well, there's stuff you can do, Like you know, you can take stuff for your hair, you can you can tell you you can get surgeries too. I mean, uh uh, you know I would say, uh, elective surgeries. But to make a wide receiver faster, that's not happening.
Slow feet, don't eat a cup is going to be grinding away all off.
The I'm buying on Cooper that who'd you steal out from this guy? I worked out and worked out with.
You Try to get faster.
Slow feet don'ty gosh, I'm bringing the stuff on Friday. No, what dude, you make t shirts on that that merchial cell. Slow feet, slow feet, don't eat?
Okay, done deal.
J mag with a news.
Well that's the news, and thanks for stopping by the herd Line News.
It's kind of funny. Yesterday you had DeMarcus Lawrence has played for the Dallas Cowboys for eleven years, and he thought he may re sign, and then Seattle came and overpaid for him. It's free agency. And then he said, hey, I didn't think I was gonna win a Super Bowl in Dallas. He's been there eleven years, he knows the building. And Micah Parsons, this is my home. Yeah, and and and and uh and Micah Parsons wasn't happy with it. So here's here's DeMarcus Lawrence with a little shot at the Seahawks or at the couch.
Now, this is my home. I made my home there. You know, my family lives there. You know I'm forever going to be there. But you know, I know for sure I'm not gonna win a Super Bowl there.
So yeah, yeah, Micah Parsons called him out said, that's clown blank. Uh uh, you know on social media. Well, here's the thing, DeMarcus Lawrence eleven years knows. The Cowboys. Micah Parsons is still in the honeymoon phase. He's still a believer, worshiping at the chapel of Jerry Jones. And I was thinking about this this morning. The Cowboys for a long time were I mean, it was they were a religion. They were getting a lot of stuff, right, I mean, Jerry Jones fires the legend Tom Landry hires Jimmy Johnson. Everybody was outraged. Jimmy Johnson was better than Tom Landry and they had a dynasty. And then Jimmy leaves and Jerry goes. I want to give it to my buddy, Barry Sweatzer. He actually won a Super Bowl. They found after Akman leaves, they find Tony Rommel undrafted, he's very good. And then Jerry, you know, he gives the job to a kid, Jason Garrett, like family, and they won a lot of games. And then they find Dak in the fourth round, build the best offensive line in the game. They get Zeke. Can't draft a running back that high. They get Zeke. For a long time, it was like a religion. Now, to be honest with you, Adalla feels more like a cult where there's one really rich guy at the top and he's got really expensive toys and he's making grand promises and selling a vision and it doesn't really align with reality. So that's what it feels like. And and Micah Parsons has not had the joy sucked out of him yet, right Like DeMarcus Lawrence has been there eleven years. He's he's heard a lot of promises. And DeMarcus Lawrence is like, I'm I'm, I'm, I'm over it. Plus Micah, he's angling for a contract extension, but don't sell me on. DeMarcus Lawrence doesn't know what's going on. I mean, they do polls in Dallas annually and like local newspapers, Cowboy bloggers, like Cowboy fans, know the truth. DeMarcus Lawrence knows the truth. There was a long time you could buy into Jerry. He got the Jimmy thing right. Yeah, I mean he got the very thing right. Briefly, he found Romo, A found Dak Jason. It was winning games. There's a lot, a lot. Then you buy into that church, buy into that religion. And all of a sudden, a lot of stuff that's being said kind of nonsense, doesn't feel like reality. One rich guy's got these ideas. None of it's really panning out. Where did all the money go? You always see that, Well, where did the money go? Guys got a yacht? We can't buy a linebacker? What's going on here? That's what it feels like with Dallas. So I don't I don't buy the DeMarcus Lawrence doesn't know what's going on. If you're in a relationship at a company. I was at a previous company for ten and a half, eleven years. My first marriage was eleven years. Like eleven years. You're with somebody you know the truth, and there's a lot of good in the truth, but you don't tell me. DeMarcus Lawrence doesn't know, as they say, where the skeletons are buried? Like you can only get so many promises for eleven years and what's really true? Over the last three or four cowboys don't feel well run. They did for a long time. I mean when Jimmy and Jerry were the I mean they were the first team to make a massive trade, the herschel Walker trade work Jimmy Johnson hiring Barry Switzer, betef to Tony and Roma. Work work, work, work, work work. I'd buy into it too. Everybody was hyping the Cowboys last five years. Show me all the great draft picks, you know, Mike CD congrats first rounders. Show me all the third, fourth, fifth, sixth round draft picks at work. Not a lot of them. Waiting too long on Deck's contract, having to overpay him, don't have a second weapon, offensively weakest running back room in the league. You can keep selling me on a vision, but at some point I got to look down on the paper and in the locker room and see Philly, and see Washington and see us. What are you seeing? You're seeing the truth. Just Mike is still in the honeymoon phase, right, He's still buying it.
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Hey, Steve Covino and I'm Rich David, and together we're Covino and Rich on Fox Sports Radio.
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Coming up tonight, The Big East Tournament SETI finals take off on Fox.
First at six thirty Eastern.
Saint John's takes on the Get Men at nine Great Battles ucat how would you watch the dam there?
All of them? I was watching Warriors, but all over the country. Everybody was getting fired up, great double overtime win.
They were down like eleven, fastened back.
Funny, I couldn't turn it off. Mark fus On later right now, Oregon Michigan State battling. Yeah, So Steph Curry hit his four thousandth three point shot yesterday. And you know we've talked about this is that. You know, Steph Curry's just it's one on one man. There's nothing else like it. And what's funny about it. All these teams, you know, remember the small ball stuff, and everybody was like, hey, let's get small in the American sport where height really matters. I mean, it's insane. It was like all this. Houston tried to duplicate it with Daryl Morey. Everybody tried to do small ball. No, this is a tall man's league. It would be like if the NFL had a trend because there was one superstar player tiny football. I want smaller, less physical NFL players. That's the opposite of the league. It's tough guys and big guys. The NFL is a length and size league and small ball didn't really exist. It was just Steph Curry coupled with you know, Clay Thompson the best backcourt since Weston Goodrich. And so last night, you know, Steph didn't even play particularly well. But I'm watching them and it's it's it's really remarkable to watch this team now. And I always say, who's your fourth best player? Because we all know the best teams have a star, and we can argue about stars. But now with Jimmy Butler as the Warriors two, and then Jonathan Kaminga's back and now he's the Warriors three, all guys capable of dropping twenty four to thirty on any night. Now, Pods or Moody, those guys can be your four or five. That feels like a team that can get to the finals. Draymond played well last night. So if Draymond Green is back to being the four, which is what he was when Kad, Steph, Clay and Draymond he now he was a catalyst, but he was your four. Well now with Pods, if he has a good night, is Draymon your five or your four? That's why this team matters. It's not just about your star. It's slotting. Derek White for the is the fourth best player for the Celtics. If porzingis is healthy, their ninety's the fifth best player. That's a great basketball team. It's not just about Tatum and Jalen Brown, because all the teams that are in the playoffs have two really good players. And if you get to a conference finals, you're going to have a Yo Kitchen Jamal Murray, or you're gonna have an SGA and a home Grin, or you're going to have a Kyrie and a Luca. Who's your fourth best player? But last night Steph didn't play particularly well. But here's Steve Kerr on his fourth thousand and three.
It just seems like it was not too long ago that he broke the record and what was what was that less than three thousand, right? Yeah, So he just keeps going the way he keeps himself in shape and condition, in rhythm, You're gonna make another thousand, for sure. I mean, I just that's what I would guess.
Isn't it crazy? They were on a treadmill to nowhere three weeks ago? Now the hottest team in the league. It's just incredible. The jet fuel, the infusion of energy into Steph Curry. Here's another thing I saw yesterday. So Paul George went Clippers to Philadelphia. I kind of like the move, but Paul's older now, mid thirties, and he's falling apart, physically shutting it down. And I was thinking about this years ago because I'm not anti analytics. I like ma analytics over analytics. I think in professional sports there is an alpha in the locker room that matters more than just analytics. I remember years ago when Harden and Kobe. If you take Harden's best four years in Kobe's best four, it's the same player. One of them was about winning, one of them was about Harden. The analytics are like, eh, Harden's the better player. No he's not. Nope, not gonna go there. So it's interesting. The process was a developmental plan by a guy named Sam Hanky. He was a business guy that came to the NBA. Now he's back to business. Really smart guy. And then there was Brian Colangelo, but then it was Daryl Moury, so Darryl Moray, who I know and like a lot, really smart guy. Sam Hanky, really smart guy, very much about analytics, but this team always lacked analytics. So over the course of the process, which started back in twenty thirteen, here are the players. The stars. They have had, Joe LMB, Julia okafor Ben Simmons, Nerlins, Noel, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Paul George. One of those guys we associate with winning, Jimmy Butler. And do you know how long he lasted in Philadelphia? Six months? He couldn't stand it because winner don't like hanging around mediocre people, stat patters and losers. Jimmy Butler's a winner. MJ's a winner, Lebron's a winner. Duncan's a winner, Magic Bird. That's what analytics doesn't measure is James Harden really in the winning James in a James okay sometimes in shape defense optional, more of a hobby than a profession. And so the process, it was all about analytics, and there are just limitations to it, just limitations to it. One guy that was with the Sixers, you look at and go winning player. By the way, here's the two people who love Jimmy Butler, pat Riley Steve Kerr. Winners listen to analytics, willing to digest new information. But Steve kerrs about winning. He knows how to build a team that wins. He's done over and over winners and so It's just interesting. This thing started about fifteen twelve years ago, the process, and it was heavy analytics, but it was flakes, guards that couldn't shoot, centers that don't want to play back to backs, guys who were into padding, guys who like just wanted the ball. I still contend about Joel Embiid. Go watch the Olympics. He's the only star that didn't fit at all. He just didn't fit with the offense. So winning players first day, first day, Butler hits the Warriors impact. He figured out a way to make it work hard at practice hard and game one game, Jimmy Butler's like, Okay, I'm gonna play off Steph. I'm gonna create free throws. I'm gonna create advantages everybody. I mean, it's the Wiggins Jimmy Butler thing. Butler in his career averages twice as many assists as Wiggins. He creates advantages. Wiggins benefits from advantages. Two totally different players, although they're wings that average eighteen a game. So if you don't watch them, you'd think Wiggins and Jimmy Butler. If you just looked at the analytics, you'd about the same size eighteen a Game one. Guy's obviously more of a creator. Totally different players. That's why I always push back on analytics and stats. It just tells you there were a lot of people that were arguing, the analytics people that James Harden was better than Kobe in that five year stretch. It was like, Man, Kobe's in bed, he's eating salmon broccoli. Can't get him away from practice, literally yelling at teammates, screaming at management. Get me more winning players. Totally different, totally different guy. So j Mac, you know I was looking at that story you talked about Cooper Cup. I'll get into this next hour. By the way, top of the hour, I'll make my AFC predictions, can I real quick?
I saw the graphic for the AFC prediction. I think they messed up Lamar Josh and Pat Mahomes. No Justin Fields in the graphic. Does that mean you don't have the Jets in your top seven? I was surprised. I was like, gonna text the staff here, Yeah, not that funny, Okay.
I'm just I still really like your slow feet don't eat. If you can figure out slow hands, don't blank, whatever that is, then I'll give.
You a pass.
On that one. But you like analytics. I mean, I think we're both data guys.
I mean, if you like gambling, you gotta like him.
Yeah, no, no, we both. I like analytics, but I think you can get way too into it. And I've always said this about basketball. So it's Baseball is a great example. Over a course of one hundred and sixty two games, baseball analytics work. You get into the postseason, you're gonna you're gonna use a starter in the bullpen to win a game. You get late in a series, game six or seven. Who gives a rip about starting tomorrow? You're gonna use Situationally, you will use O Tawi this year for the Dodgers if he pitched as a starter three days earlier. It's the ninth inning of a game, and he's your best picture available. You would pitch Otani in the ninth inning. So it's in. This is the same in basketball. Threes work over the course of a long haul, shooting a bunch of threes work like the Celtics, but in the end, Cleveland does a better job. The Cavaliers do a better job of generating better, higher quality shots than the Celtics do. They create more good twos. The Celtics are very reliant on threes. So the fear, if you're a Celtics fan, is what happens to the three games in a series that we can't hit threes because Cleveland defends the three pretty well.
So they're boom busty.
They're very boom busty, and so I think a lot of things with analytics work in the regular season, but in the playoffs. You know this, it's about getting a bucket. Lebron gets a bucket. He doesn't always shoot great threes. Jimmy Butler, by the way, gets a bucket. That's why Jimmy Butler, what do they call him? Playoff Jimmy. Jimmy's not a three point shooter. He gets a stop and he gets a bucket. So analytics are you know, people laugh when I said man alytics over analytics. I like it. But Jimmy Butler's a classic analytics guy.
Did you see the Celtics attempted sixty three threes?
I watched sixty three. Yeah, I watched it.
That's a lot of threes.
Yeah, it's it's again, it's boom or bust.
Yeah,
